materi ii system dynamsistemics
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APLIKASI SYSTEM DYNAMICS DALAMPEMECAHAN PERMASALAHAN SOSIAL MASYARAKAT
UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH YOGYAKARTA12 – 14 JANUARI 2012
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
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system
dynm!"s?
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#$!%$ Kn%&'ed(e
system dynm!"s
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Sistem dinamik: Pemodelan dan simulasi komute!untuk memela"a!i dan men#elola sistem uman $alik%an# !umit &'omle( )eed$a'k s%stems*+ see!ti $isnis+sistem lin#kun#an+ sistem sosial+ ds$,
Sistem: – Kumulan elemen %an# salin# $e!inte!aksi+ $e!)un#si $e!sama
untuk tu"uan te!tentu, – -man $alik men"adi san#at entin#
Masala. dinamik – Men#andun# "umla. &kuantitas* %an# selalu $e!/a!iasi – 0a!iasi daat di"elaskan dalam .u$un#an se$a$ aki$at – Hu$un#an se$a$ aki$at daat te!"adi dalam sistem te!tutu
%an# men#andun# lin#ka!an uman $alik &)eed$a'k loos*
Apakah Sistem Dinamik itu?
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Cy)e$net!"s &1iene!+ 2345*: studi %an#memela"a!i $a#aimana sistem $iolo#i+ !eka%asa+sosial+ dan ekonomi dikendalikan dan diatu!
Ind*st$!' Dynm!"s &6o!!este!+ 2372*:men#alikasikan !insi 8'%$e!neti's9 ke dalamsistem indust!i
System Dynm!"s: ka!%a 6o!!este! semakin
meluas meliuti sistem sosial dan ekonomi Den#an e!kem$an#an komute! %an# san#at'eat+ Sistem Dinamik men%ediakan ke!an#ka ke!"adalam men%elesaikan e!masala.an sistem sosialdan ekonomi
Sejarah
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2, Identi)ikasi masala.
, Mem$an#un .iotesis dinamik %an# men"elaskan
.u$un#an se$a$ aki$at da!i masala. te!maksud;, Mem$uat st!uktu! dasa! #!a)ik se$a$ aki$at
4, Melen#kai #!a)ik se$a$ aki$at den#an in)o!masi
<, Men#u$a. #!a)ik se$a$ aki$at %an# tela. dilen#kaimen"adi #!a)ik ali! Sistem Dinamik
7, Men%alin #!a)ik ali! Sistem Dinamik kedalam !o#!am
DYNAMO+ Stella+ 0ensim+ Po=e!sim+ atau e!samaanmatematika
Tahap Pemodelan Sistem Dinamik
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>e!)iki! dalam te!minolo#i .u$un#an
se$a$ aki$at 6okus ada kete!kaitan uman $alik
(feedback linkages) dianta!a komonenkomonen sistem
Mem$uat $atasan sistem untukmenentukan komonen %an# masuk dantidak di dalam sistem
Aspek Penting
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>e!)iki! se$a$ aki$at adala. kun'i dalammen#o!#anisi! ideide dalam studi SistemDinamik
@unakan kata men%e$a$kan ataumemen#a!u.i untuk men"elaskan .u$un#ananta! komonen di dalam sistem
Conto. %an# lo#is &misaln%a .ukum )isika* – makan $e!at $e!tam$a. – ai asa
Conto. %an# tidak lo#is &sosiolo#i+ ekonomi* – Pakai sa$uk en#aman men#u!an#i ko!$an
)atal dalam ke'elakaan lalu lintas
Hubungan Sebab Akibat
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>e!)iki! se$a$ aki$at sa"a tidak 'uku
-man $alik: untuk men#atu!Bmen#endalikan sistem+ %aitu $e!uasuatu se$a$ %an# te!li$at dalam sistemnamun daat memen#a!u.i di!in%a
sendi!i-man $alik san#at entin# dalam
studi Sistem Dinamik
Umpan balik (Feedback)
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ausal !oop Diagram (!D)
@a"i 0S Kine!"a – @a"i Kine!"a – Kine!"a @a"i
Lela. 0S Tidu! Lela. tidu!
Tidu! lela. ?
CLD menun"ukkan st!uktu! uman $alik da!isistem
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Penanda !D
+
+
+
-
: "ika en%e$a$ naik+ aki$at akan naik &e!tum$u.an+
en#uatan*+ "ika en%e$a$ tu!un+ aki$at akan tu!un
: "ika en%e$a$ naik+ aki$at akan tu!un+ "ika en%e$a$tu!un+ aki$at akan naik
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#em+mn ,Se))- –
,A.!)t-
Sales a!eoo!
Sales )o!'e is=eak
O/e!=o!ked
Num$e! is
limited
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#%s!t!e5Re!n6%$"!n( /%%s
A''ele!atin# #!o=t. o!a''ele!atin# de'line
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Sala!% Pe!)o!man'e+ Pe!)o!man'e
Sala!%
#
#
+
#%s!t!e5Re!n6%$"!n(
/%%s
The better I perform
The more salary I get
The more salary I get
The better I perform
The more salary I get
The better I perform
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Ne(t!e 57'n"!n( /%%
T.e less ti!ed I am
T.e less I slee
#
"
-
Ti!ed Slee+ Slee Ti!ed
T.e mo!e ti!ed I am
T.e mo!e I slee
T.e mo!e I slee T.e less ti!ed I am
T.e less I slee T.e mo!e ti!ed I am
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7'n"!n( /%%s
>od% Teme!atu!e
Desi!ed>od%
Teme!atu!e
Teme!atu!e @a
Ad"ust Clot.in#
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7'n"!n( /%%s
S%stem !e/e!ts to status Guo T.e #oals a!e imli'it
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/%% D%m!nn"e
T.e!e a!e s%stems =.i'. .a/e mo!et.an one )eed$a'k loo =it.in t.em T.e dominatin# loo mi#.t s.i)t o/e!
time
1.en a )eed$a'k loo is =it.in anot.e!+one loo must dominate Sta$le 'onditions =ill e(ist =.en
ne#ati/e loos dominate ositi/e loos
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C%m)!ned 8eed)". /%%s
Cse %6 #%*'t!%n G$%&t+3
-+
# #
# "
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E9%(en%*s Items
Items t.at a))e't ot.e! items in t.e s%stem$ut a!e not t.emsel/es a))e'ted $% an%t.in#in t.e s%stem
A!!o=s a!e d!a=n )!om t.ese items $utt.e!e a!e no a!!o=s d!a=n to t.ese items
#
#
"
-
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De'ys
1.en %ou tell t.e sto!% add t.e
=o!d 8e/entuall%9Cause t.e s%stem to o/e!s.oot
t.e ta!#et
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De'ys
S%stems o)ten !esond slu##is.l%
6!om t.e e(amle $elo=+ on'e t.e t!ees a!elanted+ t.e .a!/est !ate 'an $e F untilt.e t!ees #!o= enou#. to .a!/est
-
delay
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System T+!n.!n(
SystemSt$*"t*$e
#tte$n %6
7e+!%*$
Eents
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7s!" System 7e+!%$s
E(onential @!o=t.
@oal Seekin#
Os'illation
Ss.aed @!o=t.
Ss.aed @!o=t. =it.O/e!s.oot
O/e!s.oot and Collase
:HHPM Tue+ No/ 24+HHH
H,HH ;,HH 7,HH 3,HH 2,HH
Time
2:
2:
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H,HH
<HH,HH
2HHH,HH
2:Le/el
2
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@!a. 2&-ntitled*
3:25PM Tue+No/ 24+ HHH
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Time
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2:S%stem Le/el 2
2
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22
@!a. 2&-n titled*
3:3 PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH
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Time
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<H,HH
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;<H,HH
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2
2
2
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@!a.2&-ntitled*
2H:25 PM Tue+ No/ 24+HHH
H,HH ,<H 2<,HH ,<H ;H,HH
Time
2:
2:
2:
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24HH,HH
2: S%stem Le/el
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@!a. 2 &-ntitled*
2H:3 PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH
H,HH 2,55 ;,< <,7 ,<H
Time
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:
<,HH
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<<,HH
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2:S%stem Le/el :Ca!!%in# Caa'it%
2
2
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@!a. 2 &-ntitled*
2H:H< PM Tue+ No/ 24+HHH
H,HH <,HH 2H,HH 2<,HH H,HH
Time
2:
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<HH,HH
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@!a. 2&-ntitled*
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E9%nent!' G$%&t+
:HH PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH
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Time
2:
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2:
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<HH,HH
2HHH,HH
2: Le/el
2
2
2
2
@!a. 2 &-ntitled*
S%stem Le/el
In)lo=
Net in'!ease !ate
Positi/e )eed$a'k loos #ene!ate #!o=t.+ amli)% de/iations+ and !ein)o!'e '.an#e, An initial Guantit% o)somet.in# sta!ts to #!o=+ and t.e !ate o) #!o=t. in'!eases,
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G%' See.!n(Ne#ati/e )eed$a'k loos seek $alan'e+ eGuili$!ium+ and stati', T.e Guantit% o) inte!est sta!ts eit.e! a$o/e o!$elo= a #oal le/el and o/e! time mo/es to=a!d t.e #oal,
3:25 PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH
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Time
2:
2:
2:
2HH,HH
2<H,HH
HH,HH
2: S%stem Le/el 2
2
2
22
@!a. 2 &-ntitled*
S%stem Le/elCo!!e'ti/e A'tion
Dis'!ean'%
@oalRate o) '.an#e
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Os"!''t!%n Time dela%s 'ause t.e state o) s%stem to 'onstantl% o/e!s.oots its #oal o! eGuili$!ium state+ !e/e!ses+ t.enunde!s.oots+ and so on, t.e Guantit% o) inte!est )lu'tuates a!ound some le/el,
3:3 PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH
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Time
2:
2:
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;<H,HH
2: S%stem Le/el 2
2
2
2
2
@!a. 2 &-ntitled*
S%stem Le/elCo!!e'ti/e A'tion
Dis'!ean'%
Pe!'etion
@oalRate o) '.an#e
Pe!'etion Dela
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Ss+ed G$%&t+No !eal Guantit% 'an #!o= o! de'line )o!e/e!+ e/entuall% one o! mo!e 'onst!aints .alt t.e #!o=t., Initial e(onential#!o=t. is )ollo=ed $% #oalseekin# $e.a/io! =.i'. !esults in t.e /a!ia$le le/elin# oJ,
2H:H< PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH
H,HH <,HH 2H,HH 2<,HH H,HH
Time
2:
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2:
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<HH,HH
2HHH,HH
2: S%stem Le/el
2
2
2
2
@!a. 2 &-ntitled*
S%stem Le/elNet In'!ease Rate
Resou!'e AdeGua'%
Ca!!%in# Caa'it%No!mal @!o=t. Rate
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SS+ed G$%&t+ &!t+
Oe$s+%%t
Time dela%s in lead to t.e ossi$ilit% t.at t.e state o) t.e s%stem =ill o/e!s.ootand os'illate a!ound t.e 'a!!%in# 'aa'it%,
S%stem Le/elNet In'!ease Rate
Resou!'e AdeGua'%
Ca!!%in# Caa'it%No!mal @!o=t. Rate
Dela%ed Resou!'e E))e't
2H:25 PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH
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Time
2:
2:
2:
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24HH,HH
2: S%stem Le/el
2
2
2
2
@!a. 2 &-ntitled*
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Oe$s+%%t nd C%''se T.e a$ilit% o) t.e en/i!onment to suo!t a #!o=in# oulation is e!oded o!'onsumed $% t.e oulation itsel),
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Time
2:
2:
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2HHH,HH
2: S%stem Le/el : Ca!!%in# Caa'it%
2
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2
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S%stem Le/elNet In'!ease Rate
Resou!'e AdeGua'%
E!osion o) Ca!!%in# Caa'it%
No!mal @!o=t. Rate
Ca!!%in# Caa'it%
Consumtion !ate
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St%". ; 8'%& D!($m
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T.!ee di))e!ent t%es o) elements a!e &i*sto'kBle/elBa''umulation+ &ii* )lo=B!ate+ and &iii*
in)o!mation T.e sto'k and )lo= dia#!am s.o=s !elations.is
amon# /a!ia$les =.i'. .a/e t.e otential to'.an#e o/e! time &time based variables*
-nlike a 'ausal loo dia#!am+ a sto'k and )lo=dia#!am distin#uis.es $et=een di))e!ent t%es o)/a!ia$les
St%". ; 8'%& D!($m
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A sto'k is an a''umulation o) somet.in# &as!e!esentin# .%si'al entitiesBelementsBunits*+8state /a!ia$le9 !e'tan#ula! $o(
A )lo= is t.e mo/ement o) t.e 8somet.in# )!omone sto'k to anot.e! dou$le line a!!o=
Rate o) )lo= is 'ont!olled $% 8/al/e9
In)o!mation is s%m$olied $% an 8a!!o=9 E(amle : t.e mone% is a sto'k+ and t.e t!ans)e!
oe!ation )o! t.e mone% is a )lo=
St%". ; 8'%& D!($m
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Materials : t.is in'ludes all sto'ks and )lo=s o).%si'al #oods =.i'. a!e a!t o) a !odu'tion
and dist!i$ution !o'ess+ =.et.e! !a= mate!ials+in!o'ess in/ento!ies+ o! )inis.ed !odu'ts,
Personnel : t.is #ene!all% !e)e!s to a'tualeole+ )o! e(amle .ou!s o) la$ou!,
Capital equipment : t.is in'ludes su'. t.in#sas )a'to!% sa'e+ tools+ and ot.e! eGuimentne'essa!% )o! t.e !odu'tion o) #oods and!o/ision o) se!/i'es,
Tyes %6 St%". ; 8'%&
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Orders : t.is in'ludes su'. t.in#s as o!de!s )o!#oods+ !eGuisitions )o! ne= emlo%ees+ and
'ont!a'ts )o! ne= sa'e o! 'aital eGuiment,O!de!s a!e t%i'all% t.e !esult o) somemana#ement de'ision =.i'. .as $een made+ $utnot %et 'on/e!ted into t.e desi!ed !esult,
Money : t.is is used in t.e 'as. sense, T.at is+ a
)lo= o) mone% is t.e a'tual t!ansmittal o) a%ments$et=een di))e!ent sto'ks o) mone%,
Tyes %6 St%". ; 8'%&