minsky - grung moe · minsky. 1977. the financial instability hypothesis: an interpretation of...
TRANSCRIPT
Finanskrise – hva har vi lært?
Thorvald Grung Moe Levy Economics Institute
Bard College
Tre lærdommer:Det er behov for …
üFlere syn i faget => pluralism
üMer vekt på penger og kreditt
üTiltak som kan dempe gjeldsveksten
IMF's oppsummering etter krisen:
• The analysis before the crisis was too narrow and homogeneous … •Part of the problem was the similar mindset of many mainstream economists working at the Fund with similar background and training who were not open to dissenting views
(IMF/IEO 2011)
Finanskrisen brakte Minsky frem i lyset
•Minsky jobbet på Levy Economic Institute fra 1990-‐96
• De fleste av hans skrifter erdigitalisert der
• Han er mest kjent for The Financial Instability Hypothesis
The Financial Instability Hypothesis:•A theory that is relevant for a financially sophisticated capitalist economy•Money, credit and pricing of capital assets are essential elements of the theory, and• Endogenous forces leads over time to financial structures that are conducive to debt deflations, collapse of asset values and depressions
Levy WP No. 72, p. 7
Ustabilitet er normalen -‐ i en kapitalistiskøkonomi
•One can read almost all of the textbooks without being made aware that the overriding issue in monetary economics is whether capitalism is flawed in that it is inherently subject to boom and busts=>•Market forces are destabilizing and must be constrained to create stability
(Minsky 1972; Wray 2016)
The great moderation led to instability• Shift in financial posture from hedge to speculative(rollover) and Ponzi(capitalizing interest) characterize the evolution from a robust financial structure to a fragile structure, where systemic conditions can lead to a large number of failures
(Minsky, 1987, p. 25)
Policy Implication
We have to establish and enforce “a good financial society” in which the tendency by business and bankers to engage in speculative finance is constrained
=>
Monetary reform proposals
Minsky. 1977. The Financial Instability Hypothesis: An Interpretation of Keynes and Alternative to “Standard” Theory, p. 26
Nytt syn på bankene: Endogenous money
§ Banks don’t just allocate pre-‐existing savings; they create both credit and deposits
§ Uncontrolled bank credit can lead to credit and asset price cycles
§ Banks … are thus inherently dangerous institutions
The Challenge: A Pyramid of Debt
§ Todayʼ’s world economy rests on gigantic pyramids of debts. Never in the past have there been such an accumulation of promises to pay. Never has it been more difficult to deal with such a situation. Maurice Allais: The Credit Mechanism and it
Implications (1987)IMF Fiscal Monitor, Oct. 2016
Er husholdingens gjeld for stor?
Noen varslet om den globale gjeldskrisenGoodley & Wray(1996):
Can Goldilocks Survive?
• Growing government budget surpluses combined with growing trade deficits have generated record private sector deficits. • Unless households continue to reduce their saving—creating an increasingly unsustainable debt burden—the impetus that has driven the expansion will evaporate.
Goodley & Zezza(2006):
Debt and Lending: A Cri de Coeur
Veien videre – mitt syn
ØMer History of Economic Thought & Economic History
ØMindre DSGE
ØMer pengeteori og sektorbalanser
Økonomisk historie er kjempeviktig!
• It was as we all succumbed to an intellectual virus … from the 1990s onwards• Part of the disease was the total neglect of older theories of the cycle in money and banking credit
Andy Haldane, Bank of Endgland (2012)The 1907 Crash on Wall Street
DSGE -‐ sophisticated math or just indoctrination?• If you were questioning the state of the art, your colleagues and students would infer that you are not good enough to master the techniques. • Or worse, you were making a lot of money selling your expertise, so it would be silly to undermine your reputation by looking outlandish
Charles Wyplosz (2009)
•Macro models use incredible assumptions to reach absurd conclusions
Paul Romer (2016)
Economics is by nature a diverse subject? • 2015 Angus Deaton – Poverty and welfare• 2009 Elinor Ostrom – Governance of the commons• 2005 Thomas Schelling – Strategy• 2002 Daniel Kahneman – Uncertainty• 1998 Amartya Sen – welfare economics• 1994 John Nash – game theory• 1993 Douglass North – Ec. History• 1991 Ronald Coase – Transaction costs
Er det bare macro som er så dominert av ett syn (RBC/NK)?
Noen referanser
•Minsky’s digitale arkiv• http://www.bard.edu/library/archive/minsky/
•Min hjemmeside på Levy Economics Institute• http://www.levyinstitute.org/scholars/thorvald-‐grung-‐moe
•Mitt INET notat om “Credit and Debt in Economic Theory: Which Way forward?”• https://works.bepress.com/thorvaldgrung_moe/5/