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WHEF 2013 @ Bangkok : Strengthening Economy, Shaping Future

WORLD HINDU ECONOMIC FORUMSustainableHydropower:A Promising Business

Mukand S. BabelWater Engineering and Management

Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand

10-11 August 2013

(Enormous Opportunities of Business in Alternative Energy)


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WORLD HINDU ECONOMIC FORUM

Energy is essential for humanWell-beingHealth

LivelihoodQuality of lifePoverty eradication

DevelopmentEconomic

SocialSustainable

SecurityWater

FoodEcosystemPeace


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Current and future energy consumption

Source: US Energy Information Administration, 2011

% of global energy use/demand

Bharat China USA

1990 1 8 21

2015 5 22 18

2030 6 26 17

Per capita energy use/demand (M Btu)

Bharat China USA

6 26 321

22 97 302

29 143 280

OECD 2011-2030 (0.3% per annum) (-0.2% per annum per capita)Non-OECD 2011-2030 (2.5% per annum) (1.5% per annum per capita)


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Electricity coverage

Just 10 countries account for 2/3rd of those (1.5 billion) deprived of electricity 1.3 billion people will have no access to electricity in 2030 3.5 billion will face water scarcity by 2030

Countries with the largest population

without access to electricity, 2010

Source: IEA, 2012

Rural electrification

Source: CEA, 2012


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Major energy sources for electricity generation

Source: IPCC, 2012

Wind, Ocean,Geothermal,Photovoltaics,Solar, Bioenergy

2.5%

By 2030, HPwill become the worlds dominant renewable energy source


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Why is hydropower an attractive option?

Source: World Nuclear Association, 2012

Clean Energy


7/19WHEF 2013 @ Bangkok : Strengthening Economy, Shaping Future



Source: International Renewable Energy Association, 2012

Inexpensive compared to other renewable energy sources

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Onshore

wind

CSP Large solar

PV

Biomass Hydro

small

Hydro

large

LCO

E,USD(2011)/kWh

1.78 3.77 4.00 1.00 0.71Ratio comparedto small hydro

1.00





Source: IHA, 2013

Better efficiency compared to other energy sources




Source: IPCC, 2012

Source: IPCC, 2012


Good development potential




Source: Central Electricity Authority, 2012


Region

Good development potential - Bharat




1-7 years

5% project cost1-2 years

15% project cost

1-2 years

70% project cost

40+ years

10% project cost


Long-term financial benefits





Clean and renewable

High reliability, flexibility and efficiency High capacity factor Relatively inexpensive Long-term financial rewards

Huge development potential Multiple-use benefits (flood control, water supply etc.) of

hydropower Development at wide range of scales to meet diverse

demands Rural and remote area coverage through small schemes

Improved livelihoods and poverty eradication Agent for both mitigation and adaptation to climate

change


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Public-privatepartnership

Sustainablehydropower



Major hurdles in the hydropower business

Macro economicanalysis

Complex administrativemechanisms

Anti-dam lobby

Environmentalproblems

Commercial risks

Public oppositionto privatization

High construction risks

Hydrological risks

Lack of governance

Energy price volatility

Large up-front costs

Social issues Rising cost of insurances

Political turmoil




SOCIAL

Social impactassessment

Community engagement

and acceptance

Multiple use benefits

Public health

Population displacement

Vulnerable social groups

Heritage

Sustainable hydropower (SHP): Key considerations

A SOCIAL

B ECONOMIC

C ENVIRONMENTAL

A

B

C

SUSTAINABILITY




ECONOMIC Distribution and sharing of

benefits

Demonstrated need for project

Cost-benefit and economic

performance

Longevity of benefits

Energy system benefits

Local capacity building

Resource useA SOCIAL

B ECONOMIC

C ENVIRONMENTAL

A

B

C

SUSTAINABILITY





ENVIRONMENTAL Environmental assessment

& monitoring Siting and design Construction impacts

Erosion and sedimentation Seismic Water quality Passage of aquatic species

Biodiversity & threatenedspecies Pest species Environmental flow

A SOCIAL

B ECONOMIC

C ENVIRONMENTAL

A

B

C

SUSTAINABILITY





Investment costs and needs

Investment cost highly variable site sensitive design choice scale of production

Large-scale HPP: USD 1,000-3,500 per kW

Small HPP slightly higher range band $ ONE trillion required to provide universal modern energy

access by 2030

Year Investment Multi-lateralorganizations Bilateralaid Domesticgovernments Privateinvestors

2009 9.1 3.1 1.3 2.7 2.0

2010-30 48.0 18.0 15.0 15.0

Source: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2012

Unit: USD Billion




Final Reflections

SHP is key to meeting future energy (and water)

needs Proven technology; Small, medium and large HPP Risks traditionally associated with HP can be addressed Contributes to water and energy security

Low-carbon economy and society Private investment essential; significant barriers

must be overcome Enabling environment for investment

Regulatory reforms Political and institutional issues, esp. in international

basin Access to funding at local level for rural communities


19/19WHEF 2013 @ Bangkok : Strengthening Economy Shaping Future


Improving energy and wateraccessand promoting renewable energy in thecontext of a climate-constrained world

makes an investment in sustainablehydropowerattractive

THANK [email protected]

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