north carolina transportation issues david t. hartgen, ph.d., p.e. emeritus professor of...
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NC Highway PerformanceTRANSCRIPT
North Carolina Transportation Issues
David T. Hartgen, Ph.D., P.E.Emeritus Professor of Transportation
StudiesUNC Charlotte
Remarks at the Shaftesbury Lecture
John Locke Foundation
Raleigh, North Carolina February 23, 2009
Issues •Status and Need•Funding •Expenditures •Project Selection•Transit and Climate Change •Organizational
NC Highway Performance 2003-06
North Carolina Highway Expenditures and Performance, 2003-2006$10.5B, 2003-2006 ($ 171,000 per mile of responsibility)
-63.16
-0.22
-4.69
-0.33 -0.11-4.43 -7.18-1.59
-70.00
-60.00
-50.00
-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00Per Mile
Disbursementsrelative to US
Avg
Pct RI
Poor
Pct ROPA Poor
Pct UI
Poor
Pct UI
Congested
Pct ROPA
Narrow
Fatalities/ 1B VMT
Pct BridgesDeficient
Highway Status
Item 2006 2007– 79,800 miles 2nd 2nd – $ 3.2 B budget 8th 8th
• 58 % “Capital”• 22 % “Maintenance” 16th 16th
Status • Rural Interstate Pavement 40th 43rd • Urban Interstate Pavement 25th 22nd
• Rural Primary Pavement 39th 29th • Urban Interstate Congestion 48th 46th Wow !• Fatality Rate 29th 37th • Deficient Bridges 41st 34th • Narrow Lanes 34th 33rd
Study will be at reason.org, June 2009
Congestion Trends
• Congestion Will DOUBLE in 25 years
•Charlotte 1.31 1.62 (“Chicago”)
•Raleigh 1.19 1.37 (“Minneapolis”)
NC 25-Yr. Road Needs •Condition $ 10-15 B•Congestion $ 10-15 B•Safety $ 3-5 B•Bridges $ 15-20 B•Other $ 10-15 B•Total $ 48-70 B
Highway Expenditures 90-07
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Disb
urse
men
ts ($
M)
Capital Physical MaintenanceHighway and Traffic Services Administration/ ResearchHighway Law Enforcement Bond Interest/ Refinancing
NC State Hy Revenue Sources, 2006
•State- Motor Fuel $ 1153 m•State – Vehicle $ 472•State-Other $ 590•Misc $ 38•Bonds $ 0 •Federal Funds $ 979•Local Govts $ 16•Total $ 3251 m
North Carolina Economic and Traffic Trends, 1990-2007
1.251.21
1.39
1.82
1.54
2.44
1.481.42
1.77
1.331.33
1.52
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007YEAR
Rat
io to
199
0
Gross State Product
Population
Vehicle-Miles of Travel
Historical Forecast
Fuel
Increase from 1990
Growth is Increasing Faster than Fuel Sales
NC Highway FormulasSTIP: Allocations to 7 Regions: ½ Population ¼ 1/7th each ¼ Miles to complete Intrastate System
Loop: Discretionary, based on status
Highway Projects, 1990-2003Highway Projects, 1990-2003by Cost Effectiveness by Cost Effectiveness
0 40 80 120Miles
2002 Cost Effectiveness0.000 to 0.0100.010 to 0.0200.020 to 0.0270.027 to 0.0400.040 to 0.0530.053 to 0.0800.080 to 0.1000.100 to 0.1500.150 to 0.2000.200 to 1.290
Haywood County I-40Newfound Rd, Exit 33 (I-2103)
New Exit and approach road, 1995, 0.99 mi, $4.9 M, ADT2 500
C-E $1.23
Beaulaville, NC 24 (R-2010)Widening from 2 to 5 Lanes
5.25 miles, $9.3 M, 1994 ADT2 4100
C-E $ 0.063
Recommendations
• Re-allocate 10-12% of weakest capital projects; Use for Maintenance.
• Fund Worthy Projects, not Regions – Congestion Relief and Travel Time
Savings– Accident Reduction– Operating Cost Reduction– Economic Impacts– Environmental Impacts
St r at egy f or Funding Syst em Maint enance
Capital and Maintenance Program 1990-2002 = $20.5 B
Divert 50 Low CE Projects to Maintenance = $2.5B
349 Major Projects $7.3B
CE
5.34
$ 2.5 B saved from 50 least CE projects
2.67
TIP + Loop Other Maintenance Program $13.5B $1.4B $5.5B
Highway Revenues and Expenditures
•Review Revenues• Tolls• Mileage Taxes• Local Options/ State Infr.
Bank• PPP’s
•End Diversions •Fund the Best Projects•Modify Highway Formula•End the “Loop” Program
Transit Systems• 10 Largest NC Systems
Charlotte (20 M)…..TTA( 900,000)• Performance vs. Plans• Recommendations
• Release: May 2006– Study at www.johnlocke.org
Summary Statistics for 10 Systems
Summary of Key Statistics (Aggregate)
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TotalOperatingFunds
Total CapitalFunds
AnnualVehicleRevenueMiles
AnnualUnlinkedTrips (Total)
Historical Projected
LYNX Station, Carolina Place
LYNX Cost and Ridership HistoryLYNX Traffic And Cost Forecasts
5535
15500
1288013945
14000
21100
25760
1790018100
17650
18100
91009090
6691
12457
11930
14246 14807
12689
16239
16140
1689516357
16265 15440
1541816470
40.5
227
348.2370.8
385.9398.7
426.9
462.7
521.9
331.1
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Ride
s/da
y
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Cost
$M
Est. (2005) 2025Rides/day
Est. OpeningDay Rides
Actual Ridership
Est. Cost $M
Opening DayFull Funding
Final DesignPrelim Eng
LYNX Benefits and CostsTotal Cost, 20 years $ 706 m
User Benefits $ 181 mLand Use Benefits $ 297 mEnviron Benefits $ 3 mTotal $ 481 m
B/C 0.68“Local” B/C 1.20
Recommendations For Transit
• Reassess mission, focus on mobility• Hold down costs; overall funding proportional
to ridership. • Regional consolidation• Coordinate with service agencies and schools• Independent forecasts of use and costs
Recommendations - cont.
• Limit assistance to 25%• Rider participation 25 %• Uniform expansion criteria• Review capital expansions • No state $ for ‘new starts’• Limit state share of capital costs• Encourage private-sector operation
Raleigh, NC Trends in CO2
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year
Daily
Ton
s, K
Traffic Growth New CAFEHY and Behavior
Organization IssuesBoard •Do We Need One? •Smaller (5-7 members), Policy Oriented, Experts •Approve Major Projects. No ‘Advocacy’ •Prohibit Political Contributions. Open Records •Election?
Agency• Prioritize Major Projects , Select Others with Objective Data
Legislature•Fund Programs, not projects•Modify/Drop Formula
