nuclear issues in iran and north korea* · 2012-12-04 · has refused to resume aid shipments or...

Contents

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Nuclear issues in Iran

Ⅲ. Nuclear issues in North Korea

Ⅳ. Conclusion

韓國中東學會論叢, 第32-2號

韓國中東學會, 2011, 47-79

Nuclear Issues in Iran and North Korea*1)2)

Chang, Byung-Ock**

* This work was supported by Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Research Fund of 2011.

** HUFS

48 韓國中東學會論叢第32-2號

이란과 북한의 핵 문제

장병옥

한국외대

오늘날 이란과 북한의 핵 문제는 국제정치의 주요 이슈이다. 양국은 국제

사회의 압력에도 불구하고 핵 프로그램을 중단하지 않고 있다. 본 논문은 이

란과 북한의 핵 개발의 역사적 배경과 현재 상황을 조사하고, 중동-북아프리

카 비핵화 전략을 포함한 미국의 핵 정책 분석하고 있다.

이란의 핵 개발은 중동의 지정학적 패권을 장악하고 미국이나 이스라엘로

부터의 안보 위협에 대응하기 위한 것이다. 즉, 자국의 안보를 확보하기 위해

핵을 전략적으로 활용하여 미국 및 이스라엘의 압박과 패권에 도전해온 것이

다. 반면 북한의 핵 개발은 공산독제체제의 유지를 위해서 적대적인 한미일

동맹세력의 위협으로부터 안보 억제력을 확보하기 위한 것으로 분석된다. 즉,

핵 무장을 통해 한반도 및 주변국에는 핵 위협을, 미국 등 강대국에 테러 불

안을 조장함으로서 경제적 보상이나 체제 유지를 추구해온 것이다. 따라서 미

국에게 양국의 핵 문제는 세계 전략의 수행과 핵 확산 억제 정책의 성패를

좌우하는 사안이다.

미국은 이란과 북한에 대해 매우 강경한 핵 억제 정책을 유지해왔다. 미국

은 러시아, 중국, 일본, 서유럽, 그리고 최근에는 한국에까지 이란과 북한에

대한 기술 및 금융 지원 제한을 요구하는 등 양국을 정치, 경제적으로 철저히

고립시키는 정책을 펴고 있다. 그러나 미국은 핵 문제에 대해 이중 잣대를 적

용하고 있다. 미국은 인도, 파키스탄의 핵 개발에 대해서는 침묵하고 있으며,

미국의 지원을 받는 이스라엘은 중동의 유일한 핵 보유국으로 7개의 핵시설

및 최대 200기의 핵무기를 보유하고 있다.

사실 6자회담이라는 협상의 틀이 갖춰져 있고, 핵 개발 자체보다는 체제유

지와 경제적 이유가 목적인 북한에 비해 이란 핵 문제는 그 해결이 더욱 어

렵다. 이란은 자체적인 우라늄 농축 프로그램에 우선순위를 두고 있기 때문이

다. 따라서 이란 핵 문제의 해결을 위해서 미국은 이중잣대를 버리고 국제사

회의 합의로 이루어진 핵 억제 정책을 제시해야만 할 것이다.

주제어: 핵 문제, 이란, 북한, 비핵화 전략, 이중잣대

Nuclear Issues in Iran and North Korea : 장 병 옥 49

I. Introduction

Nowadays the nuclear issue in the Middle East, especially in Iran as

well as in North Korea is elevated to the top of the world political

agenda. Both countries do not stop developing their nuclear program in

spite of the external pressure, such as economic sanctions of the UN

and the United States.

The United States tolerated the Israel's stance insisting on the

indefinite Extension of the Treaty, whereas it has only lately curbed

Iran and North Korea's drive to acquire nuclear technology. The US

administration has been trying, in public and private, to prevent Russia,

China, Japan, Western Europe, and recently South Korea from

supplying Iran and North Korea with nuclear technology or the funds

to buy it. The effort was designed to augment the US "dual -

containment policy" of isolating Iran and North Korea politically as well

as economically. It is obvious that the US attitude towards proliferation

of nuclear arms reflects double standards between Israel and

Iran-North Korea.

Iran is continuing its uranium enrichment activities in defiance of

UN Security Council resolutions(UNSCR) 1929 in June 2010. The

United States has also independently imposed new sanctions against

Iran and has urged other countries including Japan and South Korea

to follow suit. In spite of this crisis, Iran has finally opened its first

nuclear power plant at Bushehr on August 21, 2010 thirty-six years

after construction began under Shah. South Korea said on September

8, 2010 that it will ban unauthorized financial dealings with Iran and

impose other penalties as part of UNSCR and a US-led campaign to

enforce sanctions against Iran over its disputed nuclear enrichment


program. Moreover, since Iran has been a major trading partner and a

fourth largest crude oil provider for South Korea, there are concerns

that South Korea's independent sanction against Iran would cause

severe damage to its economy and long-standing ties between two

countries.

Meanwhile China, the North’s main ally and the leader of the

six-nation nuclear talks, has urged both Koreas to shift from

confrontation to dialogue by rejoining the talks. After making various

threats including the sinking of a South Korean Cheonan warship,

which killed 46 sailors, North Korea has begun offering conciliatory

gestures. On August 2010, it freed an imprisoned American during

former President Jimmy Carter’s diplomatic trip to Pyongyang. It also

released a seven-man crew of a South Korean fishing boat seized a

month ago. In a surprise gesture of reconciliation, North Korea

proposed to South Korea on September 11, 2010 that they arrange

reunions of families separated by a war sixty years ago. But the South

has refused to resume aid shipments or six-nation talks on ending

North Korea’s nuclear weapons development before North Korea

apologizes for the sinking of a South Korean warship in March. And

after Yeonpyung Island attack in November 2010, on Janunary 1, 2011

North Korea made another surprise gesture of reconciliation that could

ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula.3) South Korea agreed to

high-level military talks with the North,4) after months of tension on

the peninsula, and both set date for military talks. In April, Former US

President Jimmy Carter has arrived in the North Korean capital

Pyongyang as part of a push to resolve the stand-off over the

country's nuclear programme.5) In July, South Korea’s nuclear envoy

3) BBC News January 1, 2011.

4) The Wallstreet Journal, January 21, 2011.


said he had “constructive” talks with North Korea on the sidelines of

the Asean summit.6) It is the first such contact since six-party talks

on North Korea's nuclear programme collapsed two years ago, and in

August, North Korea said it is eager to resume six-party talks on its

nuclear programme “at an early date” and “without preconditions.7)

This paper seeks to investigate the historical background of

developing nuclear arms of two problematic countries, which were

once considered as the axis of evil. Then, it also evaluates US policy

towards nuclear question including US strategy of the denuclearization

of the Middle East and the North East Asia.

II. Nuclear issues in Iran

In its geostrategic setting and external environment, Iran has been

surrounded by quite a few hostile countries including a superpower

Russia. Over the centuries, its strategic location as a land bridge

between Asia and Europe has made it vulnerable to migratory forces

and to pressures from expanding military powers-as represented by

Greek, Roman, Arab, Mongol, Turkic, Russian, and England invasions.

The discovery of oil in Iran and elsewhere in the Persian Gulf

enhanced its strategic importance and intensified imperial rivalries

including England. The change of regime in Russia in 1917 and the

rise of the United States after World War II did nothing to end great

power competition; Iran's geostrategic predicament remained

unchanged.8)

5) BBC News, April 26, 2011.

6) BBC News, July 22, 2011.

7) BBC News, August 1, 2011.


Iran was gassed into surrender and truce in the Iran-Iraq War.

Pakistan, Iran's proselytizing Sunni neighbor to the southeast, probably

having nuclear bomb. Saudi Arabia, its most ardent and reviled

religious rival in the Islamic World, has longer-range missiles under

the nuclear umbrella of the United States. Syria is engaging in a major

military buildup, courtesy of Saudi-American largesse during the

Persian Gulf War in 1991. Israel and Russia has nuclear arms.9) Given

all this, Iranians live in a rough neighborhood having deadly weapons.

That's why Iran is compelled to construct or purchase weapons of

mass destruction(WMD), especially nuclear bombs as possible as it

can. Hardly anyone else but Tehran regime denies that the Iranians

want the bombs. "The surprise would be if they weren't going after

nuclear weapons," says one senior British diplomat.

The early beginnings of the Iranian nuclear program were linked to

German in the period of 1970s during the reign of the Shah

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as a symbol of modernization. The late Shah

entertained considerable nuclear ambitions, and in the years before his

overthrow, he dispatched numerous young Iranian scientists to study in

the United States and Europe. Iran's unfinished Bushehr nuclear

complex beside the Persian Gulf has stood rearly abandoned since the

1979 Islamic Revolution, when Germany ordered the primary

contractor, Siemens, to suspend work on the project. The Iranians

meticulously preserved the equipment the Germans left behind,

erecting temporary structures to keep it out of the weather. The

complex was hit by Baghdad's bombers in 1981 during the Iran-Iraq

War, and sections of the inner containment walls were breached. Even

8) Shireen T. Hunter, Iran and the World(Bloomington & Indianapolis: Indiana University Press, 1991), pp. 6-20.

9) Foreign Policy, No.96(Fall, 1994), p.77.


when the complex did not generate a watt of electricity or a gram of

plutonium, the Bushehr complex has been producing huge amounts of

energy in another form: political and diplomatic heat before August

2010.

It was reported that in 1995 China was dropping plans to sell two

nuclear reactors to Iran instead of America's not recognizing Taiwan

as an independent state.10) In this regard, the Iranian Embassy

strongly denies the report. But Russia made it clear that the reactor

would be implemented. The US position was that the sale of any

nuclear technology, even for civilian power generation, could have

dangerous consequences. The Russian official underlined the economic

importance that Tehran-Moscow nuclear deal had for Russia. Russian

Foreign Minister Andrei Kozrev stressed that Moscow sees no reason

to stop its nuclear deal with Iran. He further said Moscow will not

take any measure to enhance Iran's potentials to produce nuclear

weapons, emphasizing that there will be nothing wrong with supplying

Iran with nuclear reactors. Russian Deputy Minister of the Atomic

Energy, Sidorenko also said that its experts are normally working to

complete the unfinished Bushehr nuclear power plant without any plan

to stop the project.11)

Iran through establishment and completion of its atomic power

plants, is in fact pursuing peaceful purposes, said substitute Friday

prayer leader of Qom, Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini.12) Referring to

allegations made by Western media on Iran's military objectives behind

completion of Bushehr Atomic Power Plant, he said that Iran has

repeatedly voiced readiness for the inspection of its installations by

10) Korea Herald. September 29, 1995.

11) Dong-Ah Daily News, October 1, 1995.

12) Tehran Times, January 22, 1995.


experts of International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA).

In 2002, Russia signed an $800 million contract to build and install a

light-water reactor that would occupy one of the two domes begun by

the Germans at Bushehr. The United States has vowed to block the

deal, insisting that Iran's real goal is to get the technology and

materials needed to develop nuclear weapons. The White House has

been pressing Russia and China to cancel contracts to build nuclear

power plants in Iran.

At that time, in 2003, Iran said it was suspending its uranium

enrichment program and will allow tougher UN inspections of its

nuclear facilities. And, after the inspection, IAEA concludes there was

no evidence of a weapons program.13) However, in 2005, Iran

announced that it has resumed uranium conversion at its Isfahan plant

and insisted the program is for peaceful purposes. However, the

United States questions whether Iran's desire for a reactor has

anything to do with peaceful uses. "The United States believes there

is no legitimate basis for Iran to seek a nuclear reactor," the US

secretary of state, Warren Christopher said. "They do not have a

shortage of energy."

Iran, one of the biggest oil producers in the world, produces

1.25billion barrels of oil a year, and has untapped reserves of roughly

115 billion barrels. Iran is now the world's third-biggest oil exporte

r.14) But Iran's proven oil reserves will be exhausted by 2042.15) Iran

also lacks refinery capacity to meet domestic demand and must

repurchase fuel on international markets.16) Tehran's permanent

13) news.bbc.co.uk, Timeline in Iran. June 9, 2010.

14) Business Week, March 20, 1995.

15) Newsweek, May 15, 1995

16) Korea Herald, August 23, 2010.


representative to the IAEA, Mohammad Sadegh Ayatollahi, contended

that sound energy planning requires the widest possible range of

power sources. By his estimate the correct proportion of nuclear

power for Iran would be around 20 to 25 percent-meaning four or five

1,000 mega watt plants.17)

At that time, the Clinton administration, however, had a distrust of

Iran, honestly fearing Iran's nuclear program. The administration

conceded that Iran's civilian nuclear program is hampered by a

shortage of supplies, expertise and hard currency. But "The Iranian

military program is more serious, better run, more advanced and more

thorough than the civilian program," said a senior intelligence official.

According to US officials's report in 1993, Iran sent a purchasing

team to Kazakhstan - shopping for enriched uranium. The Iranians'

visit helped prompt a secret Pentagon airlift last year that removed

500 kilograms of enriched uranium-enough for 25 bombs - from a

poorly guarded Kazakh facility and delivered it to Oak Ridge,

Tennessee. US intelligence said several dozen Iranian front companies

are combing world markets for materials, components and plans to

build devices such as nuclear triggers. The Russian Press had carried

reports of former Soviet scientists offered $5,000 a month to help Iran

develop nuclear arms, comparing Russian atomic physicists' salaries of

$67 a month. But Russian Atomic Energy Ministry Spokesman, Georgy

Kaurov said that no one has taken the bait, and that all their scientists

are at home.

At that time Iranians were trained at out-of-date nuclear facilities in

China and Russia. Russia was talking about training Iranian nuclear

specialists at Moscow Physical Engineering Institute, a top school in

17) Newsweek, May 15, 1995


the field. Chinese Shinhwasa news agency reported that Russia sent

150 atomic physicists in advance to research into Iran's nuclear

facilities before selling nuclear reactors and submarines.18)

Some Iranians in exile estimated that hundreds of Russian and

Chinese nuclear specialists now are in Iran to train young Iranian

engineers, and that hundreds of Iranians are going to Moscow and

Beijing for study. But Ayatollahi denied those estimates. Only two

groups have gone to Moscow, he insists, with fewer than 20

technicians in each group. The Tehran regime has also approached

Iranian-born nuclear scientists who stayed in the Western countries

after Islamic Revolution with offers to come back and serve the

homeland, Iran. This is exactly what happened with Pakistan and China

in the 1970s. Building an educated think tank of nuclear experts is

key to any weapons program.

In response to with the nervous reaction of the United States, Iran

has always announced its opposition to production and stockpiling of

nuclear weapons. Tehran was the initiator of the plan for declaring the

Middle East Nuclear Weapon Free Zone(NWFZ). Iran is also a

signatory to the nuclear NPT and its nuclear program is of peaceful

nature19).

Later, IAEA votes to report Iran to the UN Security Council over its

nuclear activities in 2006. Meanwhile, Iran continued to develop its

program, and finally Iran declared that it has succeeded in enriching

uranium at its Natanz facility. In the same year, even though UN

Security Council deadline for Iran to halt its work on nuclear fuel

passes, Tehran has failed to suspend the program. Even in 2007, IAEA

said that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in three to eight years

18) Kayhān, March12, 1995.

19) Kayhāne Havāi, May 10, 1995.


if it so chooses, but a new US intelligence report plays down the

perceived nuclear threat posed by Iran.

In the meantime, the US, for the first time in 30 years, imposed the

toughest sanctions against Iran. In 2008, UN Security Council passes

unanimously a new resolution reaffirming demands that Iran stop

enriching uranium. The new resolution was agreed after Russia said it

would not support further sanctions. Until this time, for Iran, no UN

ban existed, so the US can only plead with its allies not to do deals,

as not only a way to penalize the Iranians for strong anti-US policies

but also to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

At the beginning of the year 2010, even though Iran said it was

ready to send enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment under a

deal agreed with the West, western states responded with scepticism,

saying the agreement will not stop Iran from continuing to enrich

uranium. And finally, in June 2010, UN security Council voted in favor

of a fourth round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program,

including tighter finance curbs and an expanded arms embargo.20) At a

meeting at the UN in New York, the Security Council voted by 12

votes to two in favor of a fourth round of coercive measures. Brazil

and Turkey voted against the sanctions, while Lebanon abstained.

They argued that the sanctions were counter-productive and

endangered a diplomatic solution.

The resolution singles out the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who run

much of the economy - including the national shipping line which

Western diplomats say is trying to evade sanctions by setting up front

companies. The sanctions also prohibit Iran from buying heavy

weapons such as attack helicopters and missiles. They toughen rules

20) news.bbc.co.uk, Timeline in Iran. June 9, 2010.


on financial transactions with Iranian banks, and increase the number

of Iranian individuals and companies that are targeted by asset freezes

and travel bans. But the sanctions were passed after being watered

down during negotiations with Russia and China on the day before the

meeting. In the end there were no crippling economic sanctions and no

oil embargo.

The vote for sanctions came almost 18 months after US President

Barack Obama promised a new strategy of engagement with Iran when

he took office. Yet the US eventually pushed for tougher sanctions21).

In the meantime, South Korea, one of the strongest allies of the

United States is also under pressure to act in line with the

international efforts to curb the nuclear ambition of Iran. The major

issue for the South Korean government's own sanction against Iran is

to freeze the assets of bank Mellat Seoul branch or to shut it down.

Bank Mellat is an Iranian bank that has its only East Asian branch in

Seoul. Bank Mellat was under suspicion that it has facilitated hundreds

of millions of dollars of transactions involved in the Iran’s nuclear

weapons program.

Dan Glaser, US Treasury deputy assistant secretary on terrorism

financing and financial crimes, stressed sanctions against Bank Mellat

were becoming the “international norm” and said that it was

“absolutely vital” for South Korea to impose measures against Iran on

his visit to Seoul on August 2, 2010.22)

The Korean government has been auditing Bank Mellat since June

as part of a regular inspection of all foreign banks in the country. A

diplomatic source said since the act took effect on July 1, transactions

between Bank Mellat's Seoul office and major Korean companies and

21) BBC News, June 10, 2010.

22) Financial Times, US presses Seoul on sanctions, August 4, 2010


banks were already suspended, "but it's up to the Korean government

to decide on whether to close it down, whatever U.S. law says."23)

Meanwhile in spite of this crisis, Iran has finally opened its first

nuclear power plant at Bushehr on August 21, 2010 after thirty-six

years. Sergei Kirienko, the chief Rostam, the Russian state nuclear

power company, said "Congratulations." Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the

Iranian nuclear program said "Despite all pressure, sanctions and

hardships imposed by Western nations, we are now witnessing the

startup of the largest symbol of Iran's peaceful nuclear activities."

Another conservative Iranian lawmaker Arsalan Fathipour struck a tone

defiance. "The startup at Busheher proved the ineffectiveness of

sanctions," he said.24) Russia emphasizes the Busheher nuclear power

plant facilities can't be used for nonpeaceful purposes. But the opening

was sure to upset US diplomats, who had encouraged Russia to delay

it as a way to add to economic sanctions imposed.25)

In August 2010, the financial authorities announced that they have

reasonable suspicion that Bank Mellat traded with Iranian counterparts

that are subject to the U.S.-led sanctions. If the evidence about Bank

Mellat is confirmed, it could be subject to a suspension of business for

up to one year, or even closure. However, an official of the Ministry

of Strategy and Finance said evidence of wrongdoing found was not as

strong enough to justify severe punishment, such as the closure of the

branch.26)

23) Chosun Ilbo, 3 Firms in Seoul Subject to U.S. Sanctions Against Iran, August 19, 2010.

24) Iran starts nuclear reactor, says intent peaceful, Korea Herald, August 23, 2010.

25) With help, Iran opens first nuclear power plant, International Herald Tribune, August 23, 2010

26) JoongAng Daily, Evidence of illegal deals at Mellat’s Seoul unit, August 19, 2010.


Recently, Japan decided to impose more sanctions on Iran.27) In

reaction to Japan's announcement, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman

Ramin Mehmanparast publicly said that any country that imposes

sanctions on Iran will create problems for their companies, waste their

national interests and pass on business opportunities to their rivals. He

said the UN sanctions are imposed because of denial to Iran’s right to

make use of nuclear science for peaceful purposes. The diplomat

explained that unfortunately some countries under the influence of the

US are taking bigger measures than the unlawful resolution which is

by no means justifiable for the great people of Iran.28) He also added

that the countries which impose sanctions against Iran will not make

any profit from this country which has great potential.29)

Ahead of this, Iranian ambassador to Korea in the interview with

Kyunghyang Daily had also said that if Korean government set more

sanctions on Iran, it would be the Korean medium-sized businesses,

not Iran, which suffer a great loss.30) Iran threatened to boycott South

Korean cars and electronics in retaliation for any new sanctions.

On August 28, a senior government official said after a trip to

Washington that South Korea will announce details of its planned

sanctions on Iran to comply with a relevant UN resolution. Vice

Foreign Minister Chun Yung-woo said that the government's

independent sanctions on Iran will be implemented at an early date

once preparations are completed in line with the UN Security Council

Resolution 1929.31)

27) VOANews Persian, September 3, 2010.

28) Tehran Times, Iran reacts to Japanese sanctions, September 6, 2010.

29) radiofarda.com, September 6, 2010.

30) Kyunghyang Daily, August 9, 2010.

31) Yonhap News Agency, S. Korea soon to announce new sanctions against Iran: official , August 28, 2010.


South Korea on September 8, 2010 announced sanctions against

Iran as part of global efforts to quash Tehran's suspected nuclear

program. Korean inter-ministerial task force team told reporters that

they considered key criteria — joining the international effort to

prevent proliferation; the role of Korea in the international community

as a responsible state; and trade with Iran — when mapping out the

new measures. The team added the threat posed by the Iranian

nuclear program was as dangerous as that of North Korea.32)

Seoul targeted 102 entities, including the Iranian Revolutionary

Guard Corps and the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, as well

as 24 individuals, Foreign Ministry spokesman Kim Young-sun said.

Seoul has been cautious in taking action against Iran, trying to balance

its diplomatic interests with the United States and its economic

interests with Iran. Iran is South Korea's third-largest trading partner

in the Middle East, with two-way trade totaling nearly $10 billion last

year, according to the Korea International Trade Association.33) It is

also South Korea's fourth-biggest supplier of crude oil, accounting for

9.8 percent of its oil imports, according to the Korea National Oil

Corp.34)

32) KOREAN TIMES, September 8, 2010.

33) Washington Post, September 9, 2010

34) Trade between Iran and South Korea grew to $9.6 billion last year, up from $2.9 billion in 2001. In the first seven months of 2010 it rose 53 percent over the same period of last year to $7.4 billion — thanks mainly to increased oil exports to South Korea and a growing Iranian appetite for Korean electronics and vehicles. Iran is the fourth-largest source of crude oil for South Korea, accounting for 10 percent of its oil imports. South Korea said it would not curtail oil imports from Iran, but it prohibited new investment, technical services, financial services and building contracts for Iran’s petroleum and gas industries. South Korean companies are a major player in the construction and engineering markets in Iran, with an estimated $1.9 billion worth of current contracts (International Herald Tribune, September 8, 2010).


The South Korean actions included effectively hamstringing the

Seoul office of Bank Mellat35), which handles transactions for 70

percent of South Korean exports to Iran. Bank Mellat’s Seoul branch

will now need approval from the Bank of Korea, the central bank, to

carry out any financial deal. In the end, South Korea’s sanctions were

similar to those previously announced by Japan and the European

Union.36)

So far, the European Union, Australia, Canada and Japan have

joined the international campaign against Iran. The United States

welcomed Korea's decision. "These actions strengthen the growing

international resolve to prevent proliferation and Iran's development of

nuclear weapons and to press Iran to return to serious negotiations on

its nuclear program and meet its international obligations," U.S.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy

Geithner said in a joint statement.37)

III. Nuclear Issues in North Korea

North Korea boasts a 1.1 million man army in forward positions

bearing down on the border separating the two Koreas (Demilitarized

Zone or DMZ). It is infamously known as an aggressive exporter of

ballistic missile technology to regimes like Iran and Pakistan. Its drive

35) South Korea will also heavily penalize the Seoul branch of Bank Mellat, one of the 15 targeted Iranian banks, for violating laws on foreign exchange transactions. The United States has accused the bank of facilitating hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions for Iranian nuclear, missile and defense entities.

36) South Korea Aims Sanctions at Iran (International Herald Tribune), CHOE SANG-HUN,: September 8, 2010

37) LA TIMES, September 8, 2010.


for nuclear weapons in earnest dates back to the 1980s, and was

being pursued even before then. Many experts believe the North

Korea holds on of the largest stockpiles of biological and chemical

agents in the world.

At the same time that the regime empowers itself militarily, it

starves its citizens at home. The North Korea regime "is a closed,

unpredictable, irrational, bellicose group, the likes of which are hard to

find." According to others, the regime is "mad," "rogue," and "a

country full of 'crazy' people"(Cha & Kang 2003, 2-3).

Moreover, some even argued that the United States was

encouraging North Korean aggression with its policy of appeasement

that rewarded bad behavior and "encouraged all these crazy people

over in North Korea to believe we are weaklings because we are

giving them everything they want." In order to change their bad

behavior, the only policy worth pursuing is isolation and containment,

abandoning the "sunshine" policy of unconditional engagement made

famous by former president Kim Dae-Jung and Roh Moo-Hyen.

A more hardline view sees no reason to compromise American

values and negotiate with a brutal and morally repugnant dictator. This

perspective sees Pyongyang as attempting to blackmail and extort

concessions from the United States through threats and brinkmanship.

In this view, the United States should not engage in dialogue with

North Korea under any conditions. At its core, this perspective sees a

more confrontational strategy as the best way to pursue a conclusion

to the situation on the peninsula.

At the other extreme, there are those who view North Korea as

essentially a victim of great-power politics. In this view, the United

States has consistently overlooked the wholehearted attempts of the

North to reform its system. This perspective views carrots as more


worthwhile than sticks, and emphasizes the responsibility that the

world's most powerful nation has in resolving crises through

negotiation.

A former commander of U.S. forces in Korea, General Gary Luck,

offered a sober but succinct estimate of the bottom line if things go

badly awry on the Korean peninsula: "one million and one trillion."

That is, the costs of going to war over North Korea's nuclear program

would amount to one million casualties and one trillion dollars in

estimated industrial damage and lost business(Cha & Kang 2003, 5-6).

North Korea has been considered to be one of the axis of evil

countries since Bush administration because of its terrorist activities

and nuclear program. Since the end of the Korean War, 31 North

Korean terrorist activities have been recorded. Hijacking of a KNA

airplane with 34 passengers in 1958 was the beginning. Among the

thirty-one recorded cases, the four assassination attempts on South

Korean presidents in 1968, 1974, 1981 and 1983 respectively, and the

three hijacking and bombings of airplanes in 1958, 1969, 1987 were

extreme provocations that received international condemnation(Kim

2002, 49-50).

North Korea was included on Washington's list of terrorism

supporting countries in 198838) following its bombing of a Korean Air

passenger aircraft in 1987. North Korea is one of seven countries on

Washington's list, which also includes Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Sudan,

and Cuba. Inclusion on the list invariably involves international

economic sanctions including the denial of financial assistance. In

addition, Washington's 2000 Annual Report on the Patterns of Global

Terrorism indicated that there is evidence that North Korea maintained

38) In October 2008, the United States removed North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.


ties with various terrorist groups, including the sale of arms and

munitions. Meanwhile, the 1999 annual report specifically outlined

North Korea's connections with Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda

terrorist organization. Under these circumstances, North Korea is likely

to be closely scrutinized for its past dealings with various terrorist

groups (Park 2002, 64).

And North Korea's nuclear development program and ballistic missile

threat stand out as the most serious proliferation challenges in today's

era of terrorism(Kim 2002, 121). Moreover, the ex-president George

W. Bush's remarks that North Korea, along with Iran and Iraq,

constitute an "axis of evil" and his stern warning of North Korea over

its development of weapons of mass destruction amid starvation of its

people will pose a stumbling block as well (Park 2002, 63).

In 2000, Pyongyang regime has removed seals and disabled

monitoring cameras at nuclear facilities that had been mothballed under

the Agreed Framework, which was made in 1994, with the United

States. Under the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea stopped

building a 50-megawatt reactor in Yongbyon, 80km north of

Pyongyang, and another 200-megawatt reactor in Taechon, west of

Yongbyon, which experts believe could produce fuel for hundreds of

weapons. The 1994 agreement called for the United States to form a

consortium for building twin light-water reactors to fulfill North

Korea's energy needs in return for abandonment by North Korea of its

effort to build nuclear weapons. Under the agreement the United

States had been shipping 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil a year as a

stopgap measure during construction of the twin energy reactors. But

as following recent North Korea's nuclear crisis the United States

suspended the shipment of fuel oil for its power plant.

Against this measure of US, North Korea removed UN Seals from


more nuclear facilities and began repair work at a reactor that had

been frozen since 1994. North Korea will need "a month or two" to

make their Soviet-designed, 5-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon

operational, said Mar Gwozdecky, chief spokesman at the UN

International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA). Bush Administration has

issued a clear warning to North Korea that it must comply soon with

its obligations to the IAEA and allow the IAEA to conduct full-scope

inspections of nuclear installations that Pyongyang agreed to in 1992.

Furthermore in spite of Bush's warning North Korea declared to

withdraw from NPT on January 10, 2003.

In response to this provocation, the Bush administration was justly

resisting pressure to offer North Korea what would amount to rewards

for its behavior. It also was playing down the seriousness of the

crisis. The second tactic may serve the first, but it carries risks of its

own.39)

It is probable that officials at the U.S. State Department simply do

not trust North Koreans whatever they say. Or they have actually

been too busy with Iraq. Whatever the reason the North's repeated

overtures for dialogue have failed to bring the United Sates back to

the negotiating table. The North Korea's demand for a nonaggression

pact, as a possible safeguard for its sovereignty and security, has

fallen on a deaf ear. In the meantime, Washington has been insisting

that Pyongyang give up its nuclear programs40).

Back in June 1994, North Korea defied IAEA by removing fuel rods

from its nuclear reactor(Niksch 2002, 52). At that time a nuclear crisis

on the Korean Peninsula pushed the United States and North Korea to

the brink of war41).

39) The Washington Post, Decemer 24, 2002

40) Korea Herald, December 26, 2002.


The Clinton Administration succeeded in forging a coalition in the

United Nations to impose economic sanctions on North Korea. Japan

was prepared to cut off financial flows to North Korea, and China was

prepared to allow the UN Security Council to approve a sanctions

resolution. North Korea's knowledge of this was a major factor in its

invitation to Jimmy Carter to visit Pyongyang and begin the process of

negotiating a compromise. The subsequent negotiated compromise, the

October 1994 Agreed Framework, was flawed. Nevertheless, this does

not negate the Clinton Administration's success in gaining international

support for sanctions. A key reason, probably the most important

reason for this success, was that other governments perceived that the

Clinton Administration had made a concerted diplomatic effort for a

year to negotiate a resolution of the nuclear issue with North Korea.

After the failure of the 1994 Agreed Framework, the United States

and North Korea agreed to hold trilateral talks with China in Beijing.

The talks began in Beijing between the U.S. and North Korea, hosted

by China on April 23, 2003. The delegations were led by the US

Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian affairs, James Kelly, and

the deputy director general of North Korea's American Affairs Bureau,

Li Gun.42) The first round of talks adjourned without much progress.

In August, 2003, North Korea agreed to six-way talks on its nuclear

program and the first Six-party talks including South Korea, US, Japan,

China and Russia was held in Beijing on August 27-29, 2003. Second

and third rounds of Six-party talks were held in February and June

2004, where the US made a new offer to allow North Korea fuel aid if

it freezes then dismantles its nuclear programmes but North Korea

rejected the offer.43)

41) The Japanese Times, December 26, 2002.

42) BBC News, April 24, 2003


The fourth round of talks began in Beijing on July 25, 2005 but the

talks came to a standstill and a recess is called. The second phase of

the talks resumed on September 13, 2005 and concluded on September

19, 2005 with adopting the joint statement of six nations. Six parties

agreed on the establishment of five working groups on the

denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, normalization of DPRK-US

relations, normalization of DPRK-Japan relations, economy and energy

cooperation as well as Northeast Asia peace and security mechanis

m.44)

However, the following day, the DPRK Foreign Ministry issued a

statement that cast doubt on the implementation of the statement of

principles. The Foreign Ministry spokesman interpreted the statement

of principles to mean that Pyongyang would "return to the NPT and

sign an IAEA safeguards agreement immediately upon the US provision

of light-water power reactors (LWRs)," as had been stipulated by the

Agreed Framework of 1994. The Foreign Ministry spokesman declared

that "the US should not even dream of the issue of the DPRK's

dismantlement of its nuclear deterrent before providing LWRs."

Pyongyang considers the LWRs to be a confidence-building measure

that is necessary to complete any denuclearization deal, but

Washington disagrees. The US position has been that North Korea

must verifiably abandon all of its nuclear programs before any

discussion can be held on Pyongyang's peaceful use of nuclear

technology.45) On November 11, 2005 the fifth round of six-nation

talks ends without progress.

43) BBC News, June 23, 2004

44) China.org.cn, September 19, 2005

45) Daniel A. Pinkston, North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program and the Six-party Talks, http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_76.html#fn14


The second phase of six-party talks resumed in December 2005.

After a week of negotiations, the parties managed to reaffirm the

September 19 declaration. The six-party talks resumed in Beijing on

February 8, 2007 aimed at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. At the

meeting in a last-minute deal, North Korea agreed to close its main

nuclear reactor in exchange for fuel aid within 60 days. This was a

positive move on North Korea’s part, and the deal to be completed

before April 14th.

In July 2006, North Korea test-fired seven missiles, including a

long-range Taepodong-2 despite international condemnation. In

October, North Korea says it would conduct its test of a nuclear

weapon in the future as a war deterrent against the US hostile policy.

In a statement issued by the Foreign Ministry, the DPRK said "(for)

scientific research, the DPRK will in the future conduct a nuclear test

under conditions where safety is firmly guaranteed," the official

Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.46)

The third phase of fifth round of Six-party talks resumed in Beijing

in February. North Korea agreed to take the first steps towards

nuclear disarmament. The IAEA inspectors arrived in North Korea and

they confirmed that North Korea has shut down Yongbyon.

In May 2008, North Korea agreed to blow up the cooling tower at

Yongbyon nuclear facility if the United States removes North Korea

from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. On June 27, 2008, the

cooling tower in Yongbyon was exploded. Destruction of the cooling

tower was more than a symbolic gesture, the US officials said, noting

that the demolition would make it harder for the North Koreans to

revive their nuclear program.47) In October, the Bush administration

46) www.chinaview.cn, Oct. 3, 2006

47) Washington Post, June 27, 2008


removed North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.48)

On April 5, 2009, however, North Korea launched its

Kwangmyŏngsŏng-2 satellite. As UN resolution denounced its missile

launch, North Korea declared on April 14 that it would permanently

pull out of nuclear disarmament talks and restart its nuclear program.

It also expelled United Nations inspectors from the country.49)On April

25, North Korea says it has reactivated its nuclear facilities.

By the fall of 2009, international pressure was increasingly placed

on Pyongyang—particularly by China and the United States—for

resumption of the Six Party Talks process. In December 2009, U.S.

special envoy Stephen Bosworth visited North Korea to explore the

renewal of the Six-Party Talks. Pyongyang called for the lifting of

UN-imposed sanctions before returning to the Six-Party Talks, a

request that was refused by the United States and the other Six-Party

Talk participants.50)

Under the threat of sanctions, North Korea kept trying to develop

or test nuclear program, and in 2009, North Korea conducted its

second nuclear test. After that, the UN imposed sanctions on North

Korea and since it happened, North Korea quit the negotiating talk.

However, in May 2010, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il was

committed to ending the North's nuclear program, Chinese state media

said. Mr Kim's secretive visit to Beijing was only confirmed once it

was finished. He told Chinese President Hu Jintao he would work with

China "to create favourable conditions" for talks, state news agency

Xinhua reported. Six-party negotiations to dismantle the North's

48) Washington Post, October 12, 2008

49) The New York Times, April 14. 2009

50) NTI Website, North Korea Profile, http://www.nti.org/e_research/ profiles/NK/index.html


nuclear capability are hosted by China and involve the two Koreas, the

US, Japan and Russia51).

On the other hands, there was a case which the Korean Cheonan

warship was attacked, and North Korea was pointed out as a suspect.

The US and South Korea shows the strongest ties ever. When Seoul

blamed North Korea for the March sinking of the Cheonan warship,

Washington backed the findings of an investigation that said as much.

As Pyongyang now plans a hereditary power transfer, raising fears of

further belligerence, the US and South Korean militaries have held

joint military exercises as a show of solidarity. And last month,

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Defense Secretary

Robert M. Gates visited Seoul and discussed new sanctions against the

North.52)

On August 30, 2010, the United States announced that it would

impose new sanctions against North Korea. The government blacklisted

several more North Korean entities and North Korean citizens for their

involvement in weapons of mass destruction and other activities

banned by UN resolutions. Among the five North Korean entities and

four North Korean individuals newly listed by executive orders 13466

and 13382 are "Office 39" of the North's ruling Workers Party,

believed to manage slush funds for North Korean leader Kim Jong-il,

and Ri Je-son and Ri Hong-sop of the General Bureau of Atomic

Energy. Also included in the list are the Reconnaissance General

Bureau, North Korea's premiere intelligence organization, suspected of

being involved in the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan,

and Green Pine Associated Corp., the Korea Taesong Trading Co. and

51) BBC, May 7, 2010

52) The Washington Post, Iran sanctions challenge South Korea to balance interests, August 20, 2010.


Korea Heungjin Trading Co.53)

The US Treasury Department said the sanctions were aimed at

freezing the assets of [weapons of mass destruction] proliferators and

their supporters thereby isolating them from the US financial and

commercial systems.54)

China, the North’s main ally and the leader of the six-nation

nuclear talks, has urged both Koreas to shift from confrontation to

dialogue by rejoining the talks. Although Washington stood by the

South, a crucial Asian ally, in the standoff over the ship sinking, and

bowed to keep sanctions on the North, it is also looking for ways to

bring North Korea back to the talks, a central part of its global

nonproliferation efforts.

Meanwhile, during his visit to China from August 26 to 30, 2010,

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il expressed their commitment to the

denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and said to the President Hu

Jintao he wished for an early resumption of the Six-Party Talks.

However, despite his positive attitude toward the Six-Party Talks,

some experts are sceptical of reopening of talks saying that North

Korea wants to get the UN sanctions on it lifted. The six-nation talks

were last held in December 2008. South Korean officials have voiced a

deep skepticism of the talks. Without a concrete North Korean

commitment to denuclearization, any such talks would simply give

North Korea a tool to weaken an international resolve to enforce

sanctions on the North while buying time to perfect its nuclear

arsenal, they said.55)

53) The Korean Times, US slaps new sanctions on North Korea, August 31, 2010.

54) BBC, US imposes new North Korea sanctions, August 30, 2010.55) China Daily, China, DPRK seek restart of nuclear talks, August 31, 2010.


After making various threats, North Korea has recently begun

offering conciliatory gestures. In August 2010, it freed an imprisoned

American during former President Jimmy Carter’s diplomatic trip to

Pyongyang. It also released a seven-man crew of a South Korean

fishing boat seized a month ago.

In a surprise gesture of reconciliation that could ease tensions on

the divided Korean Peninsula, North Korea proposed to South Korea

on September 11, 2010 that they arrange reunions of families

separated by a war sixty years ago. The last round of family reunions

was held in the North’s Diamond Mountain resort around the Sept. 22

Chuseok fall-harvest holiday in September of last year for the first

time in nearly two years. The Koreas then failed to agree on a new

round of reunions.56) Family reunions have usually been proposed by

the South, not the North. The North’s initiative showed how the

humanitarian program is used as a chip in the complex diplomacy

surrounding the peninsula.57)

But the South has refused to resume aid shipments or six-nation

talks on ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons development before

North Korea apologizes for the sinking of a South Korean warship in

March, which killed 46 sailors. The North has denied involvement in

the sinking, but the South has insisted on the North making gestures

to mollify South Koreans. The proposal came a day before Stephen W.

Bosworth, Washington’s top envoy on North Korea, was to arrive in

56) Korea Herald, South Korea positively considers family reunion with the North, September 11, 2010.

57) About 20,000 Koreans have been temporarily reunited since the two Koreas held their first summit meeting in 2000. Thousands of older South Koreans wait for a chance to meet relatives not seen for 60 years. The scenes of teary people hugging long-lost parents and children have previously helped sway South Korean opinion in favor of engaging the North. Meanwhile, North Korea has used the reunions to win economic concessions from the South.


Seoul in the first leg of a regional trip aimed at resuming the nuclear

talks.

IV. Conclusion

After the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington, early in 2002,

the Bush Administration proclaimed Iran, Iraq and North Korea as the

states of "axis of evil". Iran and North Korea seem to have intention

to have talk with other countries. Especially, Iran keeps announcing

that it has no intention to possess nuclear weapons causing threats.

However, some conditions should be met to succeed in having

multilateral negotiations.

The first and the most important point is the attitude of the US

toward the nuclear in Iran and North Korea and in Israel. Israel

backed by the US, the only nuclear power in the Middle East, has

remained excluded from NPT while no Muslim country in the region is

equipped with nuclear weapons, Israel has seven nuclear installations

and up to 200 nuclear weapons. It is clear by the nuclear issue that

the US strategy has been revealed to have double standards,

discriminating between Iran, North Korea and Israel.

However as we can see from Iran and North Korea's case, even

though the arguments on the nuclear issued has continued for several

years, these institutional strategy cannot solve the problem. We need

more strict restrictions on the nuclear program, which do not contain

any double standards, but the same standards should be applied for all

the countries so that any country cannot raise objections to the

international treaty.


The Korea tried to walk a fine line between maintaining its trade

interest with Iran and playing a responsible role as one of the closest

allies of the United States in preventing the proliferation of WMD, The

Korean government official said that in considering the sanctions

announced, the government strongly considered four factors: 1)

actively participating in international non-proliferation efforts, 2)

responding as an extension of the North Korean nuclear issue since

the Iran nuclear issue and North Korean nuclear issue are connected,

3) laying the role of a responsible nation in the international

community and 4) minimizing the damage to legal business and trade

between South Korea and Iran.

The Lee Myung-bak government is generating a lot of debt with

the Obama administration regarding sanctions on North Korea after the

sinking of the Cheonan and delaying the timing of the transfer of

wartime operational command. He said the government could not

ignore the strong US request for sanctions on Iran, but as a sovereign

nation, it would weaken South Korea’s diplomatic position and

strengthen its bad imagine especially in the Middle East as well as in

the Islamic World.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il expressed their commitment to

the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and he wished for an

early resumption of the Six-Party Talks. After making various threats,

North Korea has recently begun offering conciliatory gestures. It freed

an imprisoned American and also released a seven-man crew of a

South Korean fishing boat, suggesting that it arranges reunions of

families separated by the Korean war. In a surprise gesture of

reconciliation that could ease tensions on the Korean Peninsular, on

January 1, 2011 North Korea said it wanted to improve relation with

the South. However, despite its positive attitude toward the Six-Party


Talks, some experts are sceptical of reopening of talks saying that

North Korea wants not only to get the UN sanctions on it lifted but

also to get big economic aids from South Korea.

North Korea is openly candid about its nuclear intentions, and

always has been much further along the back end of the nuclear fuel

cycle. That is, North Korea emphasizes a plutonium program, while

Iran is putting most of its resources into uranium enrichment. Another

distinction: Iran claims it is working within the legal framework of the

NPT and repeatedly says it seeks nuclear energy for peaceful

purposes only, but North Korea develop the nuclear program as a

means of getting economic aid from the world including South Korea.

However, they have one thing in common in developing nuclear

program. That is, both countries use this program for a succession of

their present regimes, Kim Jong Il dictatorship which is sure to

succeed to his son, Kim Jong Eun and the Islamic regime(also noted

as dictatorship). The United States has negotiated with North Korea in

the framework of Six-Party Talks but refrained from dealing directly

with Iran.

In fact, difficulty of solving the Iranian nuclear problem is

understandable when compared to that of North Korea. The

fundamental problem is related to the fact that Iran regulates uranium

enrichment program as inalienable rights. This makes Iranian issue

different from that of North Korea which uses nuclear issue for its

bargaining chip. Unlike North Korea aims at achieve political,

economic, and security goals through the nuclear issue, Iran put a

priority on uranium enrichment program itself.

Key Words: Nuclear Issue, Iran, North Korea, Strategy of the

Denuclearization, Double Standard


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장병옥소 속 한국외국어대학교 이란어과이메일 [email protected]

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