past forest and land fires in sea: what did we learn?
DESCRIPTION
This presentation by CIFOR scientist Daniel Murdiyarso talks about the haze problem in South East Asia (SEA). He focuses on the El-Nino Southern Oscillation, if the fires are a problem, the history of fires in SEA, what different impacts the fires can have and how fires and haze should be addressed.TRANSCRIPT
Past forest and land fires in SEA:What did we learn?Daniel Murdiyarso
Outline• Introduction
• El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a teleconnection
• Is fire a problem?
• SEA fire history• Fires can have differentiated impacts
• GHG emissions• Transboundary haze pollution• Health
• Addressing fires and haze
ENSO – a teleconnection
This week
SST Anomaly (oC) for Nino 3.4
Tahiti-Darwin SOI
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
IOD and SOI predictability: rainfall and NDVI
IOD
SOI
IOD & SOI
Source: Adiningsih and Murdiyarso, 2009
But….. El-Nino has never been the cause
Daily Average PSI in Klang Valley (Sep 1997)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1-S
ep
8-S
ep
15-
Se
p
22-
Se
p
29-
Se
p
KLPJKajangKelangS. AlamGombakP
M10
(g/
m3 )
(Source: Noor, et al., 1998)
Daily Average PSI in Singapore(2013)
Fire emissions2000-2006 (moderate El Nino)• Southeast Asia = 128 + 51 Tg C/y• Borneo = 74 + 33 Tg C/y• Sumatra = 49 + 39 Tg C/y
(van der Werf et al. 2008)
1997 (strong El Nino)• Indonesia = 2.12 Mha burnt• C release = 2570 Tg C
(Page et al. 2002)
Fire Danger Rating Systems
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Addressing fires and haze
Mapping the impacts and responses
days year years decades
Spa
tial s
cale
Temporal scale
Global
Regional
National
Landscape
Patch Post-fireNutrient releases
Vegetation successiondynamics
Damages to propertyand crops
Altered human access
Landscape fragmentationand mosaic structure
Elevated watershedsediment exports
Improving local capacities to manage altered fire regimes
Changes in landdevelopment policies
Regionalatmospheric haze
Regional cooperation on early warningsystems and fire-fighting capacities
Technical assistance programs
Greenhouse gas emissions impacts on climate
Key messages
• In the last three decades fire regimes in SEA has changed considerably due to anthropogenic factors
• Fires still part of land management tool• Zero burning may not be a viable policy• Haze as problems: symptom, transboundary, health• Fire fighting and early warning system are in place• Addressing the underlying causes of fires are more
challenging