petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

12
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY2011 1QFY2010 % chg (qoq) 2QFY2010 % chg (yoy) Net sales 3,058 2,526 21.1 3,407 (10.2) EBITDA 272 248 9.7 254 7.1 EBITDA margin (%) 8.9 9.8 (0.9) 7.4 (8.4) PAT 131 111 17.7 121 8.7 Source: Company, Angel Research For 2QFY2011, Petronet LNG’s (Petronet) performance was marginally lower than our expectation on the top line front, while it was better than expected on the EBITDA and bottom-line fronts. The company reported a 10.2% yoy decline in revenue to `3,058cr (`3,407cr), which was lower than our expectation of `3,072cr on account of lower-than-expected volumes of 102.7TBTUs. Volume processed during the quarter stood at 99.8TBUs, registering a 12.4% yoy decline and 4.9% qoq growth. Gross profit grew by 5.3% yoy to `303cr (`288cr) and was lower than our expectation of `310cr. We recommend Neutral on the stock. Performance led by lower opex and higher other income: During 2QFY2011, net re-gasification margins rose by 20% yoy to `30.4/mmbtu (`25.3/mmbtu) because of absence of marketing loss on spot volumes (as in 2QFY2010) and lower internal consumption. Other operating expenditure, which fell by 12.8% yoy to `26.1cr (`29.9cr), and higher-than-expected other income helped Petronet to report better bottom-line performance. The bottom line registered an 8.7% yoy growth to `131cr (`121cr) against our expectation of `119cr. Outlook and valuation: We have marginally revised our EPS estimates for FY2011E and FY2012E to `6.8 (up 7.7%) and `8.5 (up 2.4%), respectively, adjusting for higher operating efficiencies (lower other expenditure) and stronger rupee. However, on the valuation front, after the recent surge in the stock price, we believe valuations have captured in all the business positives. Upsides from the current levels will be dependent on the tie-up of additional volume for the unutilised capacity. Valuation at 13.9x FY2012E EPS is no more demanding at the current juncture. Hence, we downgrade the stock from Accumulate to Neutral. We assign a DCF-based fair value of `121/share for the stock. Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net sales 8,429 10,649 12,220 18,040 % chg 28.6 26.3 14.8 47.6 Net profit 518 404 514 634 % chg 9.2 (22.0) 27.0 23.4 OPM (%) 10.7 7.9 8.8 6.9 EPS (`) 6.9 5.4 6.8 8.5 P/E (x) 17.0 21.8 17.2 13.9 P/BV (x) 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.9 RoE (%) 28.8 19.2 21.3 22.5 RoCE (%) 20.0 14.3 16.4 16.1 EV/Sales (x) 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.3 12.3 10.2 9.4 Source: Company, Angel Research NEUTRAL CMP `118 Target Price - Investment Period - Stock Info Sector Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 50.0 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 11.6 FII / NRIs / OCBs 20.9 Indian Public / Others 17.5 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 12.2 20.8 5.10 PLNG 45.1 61.2 42.7 10 20,221 6,082 PLNG.BO PLNG@IN 8,820 0.9 130/62 227757 Oil & Gas Avg. Daily Volume Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Deepak Pareek Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 340 [email protected] Amit Vora Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 322 [email protected] Petronet LNG Performance Highlights 2QFY2011 Result Update | Oil & Gas October 26, 2010

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Page 1: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY2011 1QFY2010 % chg (qoq) 2QFY2010 % chg (yoy)

Net sales 3,058 2,526 21.1 3,407 (10.2)

EBITDA 272 248 9.7 254 7.1

EBITDA margin (%) 8.9 9.8 (0.9) 7.4 (8.4)

PAT 131 111 17.7 121 8.7

Source: Company, Angel Research

For 2QFY2011, Petronet LNG’s (Petronet) performance was marginally lower than our expectation on the top line front, while it was better than expected on the EBITDA and bottom-line fronts. The company reported a 10.2% yoy decline in revenue to `3,058cr (`3,407cr), which was lower than our expectation of `3,072cr on account of lower-than-expected volumes of 102.7TBTUs. Volume processed during the quarter stood at 99.8TBUs, registering a 12.4% yoy decline and 4.9% qoq growth. Gross profit grew by 5.3% yoy to `303cr (`288cr) and was lower than our expectation of `310cr. We recommend Neutral on the stock.

Performance led by lower opex and higher other income: During 2QFY2011, net re-gasification margins rose by 20% yoy to `30.4/mmbtu (`25.3/mmbtu) because of absence of marketing loss on spot volumes (as in 2QFY2010) and lower internal consumption. Other operating expenditure, which fell by 12.8% yoy to `26.1cr (`29.9cr), and higher-than-expected other income helped Petronet to report better bottom-line performance. The bottom line registered an 8.7% yoy growth to `131cr (`121cr) against our expectation of `119cr.

Outlook and valuation: We have marginally revised our EPS estimates for FY2011E and FY2012E to `6.8 (up 7.7%) and `8.5 (up 2.4%), respectively, adjusting for higher operating efficiencies (lower other expenditure) and stronger rupee. However, on the valuation front, after the recent surge in the stock price, we believe valuations have captured in all the business positives. Upsides from the current levels will be dependent on the tie-up of additional volume for the unutilised capacity. Valuation at 13.9x FY2012E EPS is no more demanding at the current juncture. Hence, we downgrade the stock from Accumulate to Neutral. We assign a DCF-based fair value of `121/share for the stock.

Key financials

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Net sales 8,429 10,649 12,220 18,040

% chg 28.6 26.3 14.8 47.6

Net profit 518 404 514 634

% chg 9.2 (22.0) 27.0 23.4

OPM (%) 10.7 7.9 8.8 6.9

EPS (`) 6.9 5.4 6.8 8.5

P/E (x) 17.0 21.8 17.2 13.9

P/BV (x) 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.9

RoE (%) 28.8 19.2 21.3 22.5

RoCE (%) 20.0 14.3 16.4 16.1

EV/Sales (x) 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.3 12.3 10.2 9.4 Source: Company, Angel Research

NEUTRAL CMP `118 Target Price -

Investment Period -

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 50.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 11.6

FII / NRIs / OCBs 20.9

Indian Public / Others 17.5

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 12.2 20.8 5.10

PLNG 45.1 61.2 42.7

10

20,221

6,082

PLNG.BO

PLNG@IN

8,820

0.9

130/62

227757

Oil & Gas

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Deepak Pareek Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 340

[email protected]

Amit Vora Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 322

[email protected]

Petronet LNG Performance Highlights

2QFY2011 Result Update | Oil & Gas

October 26, 2010

Page 2: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 2

Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 performance

Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY2011 1QFY2011 % chg (qoq) 2QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 1HFY2011 1HFY2010 % chg (yoy)

Net sales 3,058 2,526 21.1 3,407 (10.2) 5,584 6,019 (7.2)

COGS 2,755 2,233 23.3 3,119 (11.7) 4,988 5,521 (9.7)

Other operating expenditure 31 45 34 76 63

EBITDA 272 248 9.7 254 7.1 519 436 19.3

EBITDA margin (%) 8.9 9.8 7.4 9.3 7.2

Other income 19 13 47.6 19 (2.6) 31 48 (34.9)

Depreciation 47 46 1.0 43 8.3 93 69 35.1

Interest 49 50 (0.7) 51 (3.1) 99 79 25.0

PBT 194 164 18.1 179 8.6 358 335 6.9

PBT margin (%) 6.3 6.5 5.2 6.4 5.6

Total tax 63 53 18.9 58 8.6 116 111 4.2

% of PBT 32.5 32.2 32.5 32.4 33.2

PAT 131 111 17.7 121 8.7 242 224 8.3

PAT margin (%) 4.3 4.4 3.5 4.3 3.7

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: 2QFY2011 Actual v/s Angel estimates Estimates Actual Variation (%)

Net sales 3,072 3,058 (0.5)

EBITDA 264 272 3.1

EBITDA margin (%) 8.6 8.9 0.3

PBT 178 194 9.3

PAT 119 131 10.6

Source: Company, Angel Research

Volume and top line down yoy: For 2QFY2011, Petronet’s R-LNG volumes declined by 12.4% yoy mainly on account of termination of RGPPL contract in September 2009 (which was present in 2QFY2010). Volumes processed during the quarter stood at 99.8TBTU and was marginally lower than our expectation of 102.7TBTUs. Tolling volumes during the quarter stood flat at 0.3TBTU as against 0.4TBTU registered in 2QFY2010. Contractual volumes were higher on a yoy basis at 89.7TBTUs (62TBTUs) on account of commissioning of additional 2.5MMTPA of gas supplies from Qatar in January 2010. Spot volumes stood at 9.8TBTU against 51.5TBTU (including RGPPL volumes) registered in 2QFY2010. However, on a qoq basis, volumes increased by 4.9% (95.1TBTU in 4QFY2010) on account of nil spot volumes in 1QFY2011, despite lower tolling volumes during the quarter. On the revenue front, the company reported a 10.2% yoy decline in revenue to `3,058cr (`3,407cr), which was lower than our expectation of `3,072cr. Realisation during the quarter registered 2.4% yoy growth on account of increased prices of LNG, which was sourced from Rasgas.

Page 3: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 3

Exhibit 3: R-LNG volumes

61.067.8

60.1 63.0 62.7 62.0 65.0

90.8 89.5 89.7

17.07.2

25.019.5

36.1

51.8

30.2

1.05.7 10.1

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0

1Q

FY0

9

2Q

FY0

9

3Q

FY0

9

4Q

FY0

9

1Q

FY1

0

2Q

FY1

0

3Q

FY1

0

4Q

FY1

0

1Q

FY1

1

2Q

FY1

1

TBTU

s

Contracted LNG Sales in TBTUs Spot cargo & Tolling volumes sales in TBTUs (Incl. RGPPL Gas) Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Operating revenue – Growth trend (yoy)

105.8

(9.2) (10.1)(3.3)

(10.2)

(20.0)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

(%)

(` c

r)

Total operating revenues Total operating revenues growth (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Better operating performance led by higher regas margins and lower other exp.: Net re-gasification margins during the quarter rose by 20% yoy to `30.4/mmbtu (`25.3/mmbtu) and were in line with our expectation on account of absence of marketing loss on spot volumes (as in 2QFY2010) and lower internal consumption. Recalibration of turbines resulted in lower internal consumption, which translated into higher operational efficiency. However, net re-gasification margins declined marginally on a qoq basis. On tolling volumes (0.3TBTU), the company’s tolling margins stood at `32.8/mmbtu during the quarter. Gross profit increased by 5.3% yoy to `303cr (`288cr) and was lower than our expectation of `310cr on account of lower-than-expected volumes. OPM expanded by 144bp yoy to 8.9% (7.4%), resulting in EBITDA/mmbtu of `27.2 (`22.3) mainly on account of lower other operating expenditure, which stood at `26.1cr (`29.9cr). On a sequential basis also, EBITDA/mmbtu increased to `27.2 (`26.0). Consequently, EBITDA registered a 7.1% yoy increase to `272cr (`254cr).

Page 4: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 4

Exhibit 5: Netback margin trend

Particulars (`/TBTU) 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

Realisation 211 221 291 322 272 300 262 262 280 307

Raw-material cost 182 192 265 273 251 275 237 236 250 277

Reported netback margin 28.6 28.4 25.3 48.7 21.1 25.3 25.0 26.3 30.7 30.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 6: Operating performance trend

7.4

9.3 8.5

9.8 8.9

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

(%)

(`cr

)

Operating Profit Operating Margins (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Depreciation cost increases, interest cost declines: Depreciation cost during 2QFY2011 increased by 8.3% yoy to `47cr (`43cr) due to capitalisation of the Dahej terminal. However, interest expenditure declined by 3.1% yoy to `49.5cr (`51.1cr).

PAT increases 8.7% yoy: During the quarter, Petronet witnessed better-than-expected bottom-line performance, despite lower-than-expected volumes. PAT registered an increase of 8.7% yoy to `131cr (`111cr) and was higher than our expectation of `119cr. Growth was led by better operating performance due to lower other expenditure and higher-than-expected other income. Other income during the quarter stood flat yoy at `19cr, against our expectation of `12cr. However, the same increased on a sequential basis by 47.6% to `19cr (`13cr). Other income was higher as it included `9cr due to forex gains.

Page 5: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 5

Exhibit 7: PAT – Growth trend (yoy)

16.8

(20.8)

(52.3)

7.8 8.7

(60.0)

(50.0)

(40.0)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

(%)

(`cr

)

PAT PAT growth (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Investment arguments

LNG prices to remain subdued: One of the concerns pertaining to viability of the LNG import model in the country was the high cost associated with imports. However, we expect shale gas to transform the global supply and price outlook for natural gas and competing energy options. Shale gas, which accounted for only 1% of US natural gas supply in 2000, has grown to 20% today; and by 2035, it could be 50%. Natural gas shale boom in the US has more than doubled the discovered gas resources and can supply more than the century’s consumption at the current rate. Newer technologies such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have opened up vast new resources of natural gas from shale formation. Thus, shale gas could act as a competitive alternative to LNG, which in turn is likely to result in de-coupling of the global LNG and global crude oil markets. De-coupling is likely to result in the reduction of slope of LNG contracts to crude oil prices. Shale gas and upcoming LNG capacities would reduce the price spikes for natural gas, which would benefit major gas consumers such as power generation companies.

LNG import model viable going ahead: We believe LNG is likely to be a key source of gas supplies in the medium term on account of strong gas demand in the country. Hence, Petronet is a proxy play on the increasing gap between natural gas supplies and demand in the country. The delay in KG basin gas ramp-up has further helped the matters. Moreover, we expect domestic gas demand estimates to be revised upwards on account of increasing pipeline connectivity to various regions. Moreover, the government is making efforts to maintain long-term viability of LNG in the overall gas mix of the country. Government could act on the Mercados Energy Markets International report regarding uniform domestic gas pricing. This move, if implemented, is likely to increase marketability of R-LNG in the country.

Page 6: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 6

Outlook and valuation

For 2QFY2011, Petronet reported better-than-expected performance. Going ahead, we believe the company will continue to deliver better set of numbers on account of increased LNG imports, as concerns over the limited pipeline capacity of GAIL are expected to fade out and demand for LNG is likely to grow. Capacity of Petronet’s Dahej terminal stands at 11.5MMTPA. However, it has linkages of 7.5MMTPA for the same. Thus, if the untied capacity of 4.0MMTPA (35% of installed capacity) is sourced, it will likely reduce the untied linkages of the company and prove to be a strong re-rating trigger for the stock.

On the tariff front, we do not see significant risks emerging in the near future due to absence of regulatory interference. Nonetheless, we do not expect the trend of annual escalation to continue. In fact, we have assumed a freeze on regasification margins from CY2012E on account of repricing of LNG, following the monthly alignment with JCC prices. Thus, there could be upsides to our estimates if the annual hike in the regasification margins continues beyond the forecast period.

We have marginally revised our EPS estimates for FY2011E and FY2012E to `6.8 (up 7.7%) and `8.5 (up 2.4%), respectively, adjusting for higher operating efficiencies (lower other expenditure) and stronger rupee. However, on the valuation front, after the recent surge in the stock price, we believe valuations have captured in all the business positives. Upsides from the current levels will be dependent on the tie-up of additional volume for the unutilised capacity. Valuation at 13.9x FY2012E EPS is no more demanding at the current juncture. Hence, we downgrade the stock from Accumulate to Neutral. We assign a DCF-based fair value of `121/share for the stock.

Page 7: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 7

Exhibit 8: Key assumptions

Earlier estimates Revised estimates

FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E

`/US$ 46.0 45.0 45.0 45.0

Installed capacity (year end) MMTPA 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5

Installed capacity (year end) TBTU 586.3 586.3 586.3 586.3

Total volumes processed (TBTU) 387.5 466.0 414.8 484.7

Fixed contract (Rasgas) 251.8 251.8 248.6 248.6

Fixed contract (Rasgas Tranche 'A') 125.9 125.9 124.3 124.3

Spot/medium-term contracts 4.1 81.6 25.5 81.6

Tolling volume 25.0 25.0 12.0 25.0

Internal consumption 5.6 6.7 4.5 5.3

Total volume processed (MMTPA) 7.6 9.1 8.1 9.5

Effective capacity utilisation (%) 66.1 79.5 70.8 82.7

Regasification charges (`/mmbtu) 32.2 33.3 32.2 33.3

Marketing margin (`/mmbtu) 3.0 - 12.0 -

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9: Change in estimates

FY2011E FY2012E

(` cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Var. (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Var. (%)

Total operating revenue 11,963 12,220 2.2 18,226 18,040 (1.0)

EBITDA 1,006 1,081 7.5 1,217 1,253 3.0

PAT 477 514 7.7 619 634 2.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Angel EPS forecast v/s consensus Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Var. (%)

FY2011E 6.8 6.7 (5.6)

FY2012E 8.5 8.0 3.7

Source: Company, Angel Research

Page 8: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 8

Exhibit 11: One-year forward P/EPS band

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Apr

-05

Oct

-05

Apr

-06

Oct

-06

Apr

-07

Oct

-07

Apr

-08

Oct

-08

Apr

-09

Oct

-09

Apr

-10

Oct

-10

Shar

e Pr

ice

(`)

Price 4.0x 7.0x 10.0x 13.0x 16.0x

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: Recommendation Summary

Company Reco. CMP (`)

Target price (`)

Upside (%)

Mkt. cap (` cr)

FY2012E P/BV (x)

FY2012E P/E (x)

FY09-12E CAGR EPS (%)

FY2012E RoCE (%)

FY2012E RoE (%)

Cairn India Neutral 329 - - 62,369 1.6 7.1 121.7 25.9 23.0

GAIL Accumulate 497 534 7.5 62,986 2.8 14.9 14.6 19.2 20.0

GSPL Neutral 122 - - 6,862 3.0 14.5 56.7 19.9 22.9

Gujarat Gas Neutral 392 - - 5,026 4.6 18.0 20.2 31.2 27.8

IGL Neutral 333 - - 4,662 4.0 15.8 19.7 31.0 27.4

ONGC Neutral 1,326 - - 283,667 2.1 10.8 10.0 23.3 20.8

Petronet LNG Neutral 118 - - 8,820 2.9 13.9 6.9 16.1 22.5

RIL Buy 1,097 1,260 14.9 358,730 1.9 12.6 24.0 13.7 16.4

Shivvani Oil Buy 433 539 24.4 2,009 1.2 8.0 14.5 14.0 18.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

Page 9: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 9

Profit & Loss Statement

Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Gross sales 5,509 6,555 8,429 10,649 12,220 18,040

Less: Excise duty - - - - - -

Net Sales 5,509 6,555 8,429 10,649 12,220 18,040

Other operating income - - - - - -

Total operating income 5,509 6,555 8,429 10,649 12,220 18,040

% chg 19.0 28.6 26.3 14.8 47.6

Total Expenditure 4,861 5,689 7,527 9,803 11,139 16,787

Net Raw Materials 4,746 5,566 7,376 9,665 10,993 16,632

Personnel 12 21 20 20 23 25

Other 102 102 132 117 123 129

EBITDA 648 866 901 846 1,081 1,253

% chg 32.8 33.7 4.1 (6.1) 27.7 15.9

(% of Net Sales) 11.8 13.2 10.7 7.9 8.8 6.9

Depreciation& Amortisation 102 102 103 161 185 188

EBIT 546 764 799 686 896 1,065

% chg 41.0 39.9 4.6 (14.2) 30.6 18.9

(% of Net Sales) 9.9 11.7 9.5 6.4 7.3 5.9

Interest & other Charges 107 102 101 184 198 201

Other Income 37 54 77 98 72 85

(% of PBT) 7.7 7.5 9.9 16.3 9.4 9.0

Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 476 715 774 599 769 949

% chg 61.2 50.4 8.2 (22.5) 28.3 23.4

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -

PBT (reported) 476 715 774 599 769 949

Tax 162 241 256 195 256 315

(% of PBT) 34.1 33.6 33.0 32.5 33.2 33.2

PAT (reported) 313 475 518 404 514 634

PAT after MI (reported) 313 475 518 404 514 634

ADJ. PAT 313 475 518 404 514 634

% chg 60.7 51.5 9.2 (22.0) 27.0 23.4

(% of Net Sales) 5.7 7.2 6.2 3.8 4.2 3.5

Basic EPS (`) 4.2 6.3 6.9 5.4 6.8 8.5

Fully Diluted EPS (`) 4.2 6.3 6.9 5.4 6.8 8.5

% chg 51.5 9.2 (22.0) 27.0 23.4

Page 10: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 10

Balance Sheet

Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 750 750 750 750 750 750

Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 526 869 1,233 1,485 1,838 2,303

Shareholders’ Funds 1,276 1,619 1,983 2,235 2,588 3,053

Minority Interest - - - - - -

Total Loans 1,383 1,578 2,282 2,500 2,903 3,882

Deferred Tax Liability 247 269 272 326 365 412

Total Liabilities 2,906 3,465 4,537 5,061 5,855 7,347

APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 1,946 1,972 1,975 3,550 3,600 3,650

Less: Acc. Depreciation 302 404 506 667 852 1,040

Net Block 1,644 1,568 1,469 2,883 2,747 2,610

Capital Work-in-Progress 483 1,061 1,847 1,318 2,368 3,718

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 278 547 304 539 539 539

Current Assets 1,088 1,148 1,810 1,222 1,295 2,107

Cash 340 359 658 340 105 328

Loans & Advances 205 361 78 152 152 152

Other 543 428 1,074 729 1,038 1,627

Current liabilities 588 859 892 901 1,094 1,627

Net Current Assets 501 289 917 321 201 480

Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 2,906 3,465 4,537 5,061 5,855 7,347

Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Profit before tax 476 715 774 599 769 949

Depreciation 102 102 103 161 185 188

Change in Working Capital (71) 159 (338) 303 (123) (64)

Less: Other income 2 (50) (73) (45) (72) (85)

Direct taxes paid (53) (169) (266) (164) (217) (268)

Cash Flow from Operations 457 757 199 854 543 720

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (367) (604) (788) (1,047) (1,100) (1,400)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (106) (261) 246 (234) - -

Other income (17) 41 69 45 72 85

Cash Flow from Investing (490) (823) (473) (1,236) (1,028) (1,315)

Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 123 194 704 218 403 979

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) - (110) (132) (154) (153) (161)

Cash Flow from Financing 123 85 572 65 250 818

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 90 18 299 (317) (235) 223

Opening Cash balances 251 340 359 658 340 105

Closing Cash balances 340 359 658 340 105 328

Page 11: Petronet lng 2 qfy2011ru-261010

Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 11

Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 28.2 18.6 17.0 21.8 17.2 13.9

P/CEPS 21.2 15.3 14.2 15.6 12.6 10.7

P/BV 6.9 5.4 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.9

Dividend yield (%) 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6

EV/Sales 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7

EV/EBITDA 14.8 11.0 11.3 12.3 10.2 9.4

EV/Total Assets 3.3 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6

Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 4.2 6.3 6.9 5.4 6.8 8.5

EPS (fully diluted) 4.2 6.3 6.9 5.4 6.8 8.5

Cash EPS 5.5 7.7 8.3 7.5 9.3 11.0

DPS 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9

Book Value 17.0 21.6 26.4 29.8 34.5 40.7

DuPont Analysis (%) EBIT margin 9.9 11.7 9.5 6.5 7.4 5.9

Tax retention ratio 66.0 66.4 67.1 67.5 66.8 66.8

Asset turnover (x) 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.1

ROIC (Post-tax) 16.8 20.9 17.5 11.9 12.7 12.2

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 5.3 4.6 3.5 5.2 4.9 4.0

Leverage (x) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.5

Operating ROE 23.8 32.2 28.8 18.1 21.3 16.6

Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 20.5 24.0 20.0 14.3 16.4 16.1

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 29.6 46.3 49.5 29.9 31.4 38.0

ROE 26.7 32.8 28.8 19.2 21.3 22.5

Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.8 3.3 4.3 3.8 3.4 5.0

Inventory / Sales (days) 10 8 10 11 9 10

Receivables (days) 15 19 22 20 18 17

Payables (days) 20 27 28 28 28 26

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 10 3 4 4 1 3

Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0

Net debt to EBITDA 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.4

Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 5.1 7.5 7.9 3.7 4.5 5.3

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Petronet LNG | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Petronet LNG 1. Analyst ownership of the stock Yes 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)