Lead Editors: Victoria Keener, PhD; John Marra, PhD;

Melissa Finucane, PhD; Deanna Spooner; Margaret Smith

Monday, December 10, 2012. Public Forum. Photo by Diana Kim

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Collaborators

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Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA)

Aims 1. Assess the state of climate knowledge, impacts, and

adaptive capacity in Hawai‘i and USAPI 2. Support decision making in the face of a changing climate

Participants Academia, Government agencies (federal, state, local), NGOs, businesses, community groups

• Over 100 contributors to the technical report

Activities – Dialogs, workshops, literature reviews – Analyzing scientific consensus, knowledge gaps, sectoral

needs, adaptive capacity, and notable case studies 3

• US Global Change Research Act of 1990 • Incorporate climate science into larger context

to identify vulnerabilities • Evaluates effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation activities • Identifies economic opportunities • Integrates scientific information from multiple sources • Highlights gaps in knowledge

• Help federal government prioritize science investments

More on the NCA at http://assessment.globalchange.gov 4

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Products • Climate Change and

Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts

• Executive Summary • Case Studies • NCA Pacific Islands

chapter (2013) • PIRCA Impacts &

Adaptations Fora – Honolulu, Dec. 2012 – Suva, Fiji, Jan. 2013

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ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OPPORTUNITIES &

CONSTRAINTS POLICY & GOVERNANCE

INSTITUTIONS COMMUNITIES

CLIMATE IMPACTS AGRICULTURE

INFRASTRUCTURE SOCIO-ECONOMIC OCEAN RESOURCES

PIRCA REPORT TO THE NCA

MARCH, 2012

REGIONAL CLIMATE PROGNOSES: (1) WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC (2) CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC (3) CENTRAL SOUTH PACIFIC

FRESH WATER SUSTAINABILITY & DROUGHT

PACIFIC ISLANDS REGIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT FORUM (DECEMBER 10-12, 2012)

AQUATIC & TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS

COASTAL INUNDATION & SEA LEVEL RISE

(Figure courtesy Victoria Keener, East-West Center) 8

Indicators of a Changing Climate in the Pacific Islands Region

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Key Messages

Coastal flooding and erosion

Changes in marine ecosystems

Native plant & animal stress/extinction

Threats to indigenous cultures and practices

Increasing migration

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Fresh water supplies more limited

Changing rainfall amounts and patterns

Average air temperature rising

Changing frequency and intensity of wind, waves, and storms 10

Freshwater Supplies are Limited and Threatened • Pacific Islands have limited and fragile freshwater resources,

making them more vulnerable to climate stresses than continents

• Freshwater on low islands is especially vulnerable to climate-related threats due to their small size and limited natural and socioeconomic resources

• The Pacific Islands region has high natural climate variability. This makes it difficult to detect long-term regional climate trends and make accurate predictions

• To accurately assess trends in water resources as climate changes, more data and basic monitoring are severely needed 11

Air Temperature is Rising • Average air temperature

has risen significantly in Hawai‘i in the past 100 years, and in Micronesia over the past 60 years

• In Hawai‘i, this has accelerated in the past 30 years

• Increasing air temperature is more rapid at high-elevations (>0.5 mile above sea level)

Giambelluca et al, 2008 12

Precipitation Patterns are Changing

• Annual precipitation has decreased significantly in the past 30 years in Hawai‘i

• In the past 30 years, all Hawaiian Islands have experienced greater numbers of consecutive dry days, and fewer days of intense rainfall

updated from Chu & Chen (2005)

Chu et al., 2010 13

Precipitation Patterns are Changing

Modified and updated from Guard & Lander)

• From 1950-2010, data shows that islands in east Micronesia are getting significantly drier, while those in west Micronesia have gotten very slightly wetter.

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Base Flow in Streams is Decreasing

• In Hawai‘i, base flow, the groundwater component of streamflow, has shown significant downward trends of 20-70% in the past 100 years

Oki, 2004; Bassiouni & Oki, 2012 Oki, 2004

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• Since the 1990s, the rate of globally averaged sea-level rise has been ~0.13 inches per year

• This is twice the estimated rate for the 20th century as a whole

Sea Level is Rising

Adapted from Church et al., 2008

• Climate model projections (that do not include ice-sheet contributions) are for an 6 to 24 inch rise in global sea level by 2100

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• The highest rates of regional SLR have occurred in the western tropical Pacific. Since the early 1990s, natural climate variability has increased the strength of the trade winds

• There will be increased stress on western Pacific islands due to SLR, combined with seasonal high tides, the occurrence of La Niña, and storm events and waves

Sea Level Rise (SLR) is Non-uniform & Non-steady

Merrifield 2011

Sea-level trend for 1993-2010 from Aviso altimeter.

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• Extreme sea level events occur when high tides combine with some non-tidal change in water level (such as from tropical and extra-tropical storms)

Increasing Average Sea Level Means More Frequent Extreme Sea Levels

• Increased coastal inundation from extreme water level events will threaten communities and wildlife

Images courtesy of USFWS, Kosrae image courtesy of Kosrae Islands Resource Management Agency staff

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• Coastal structures • Airports • Groundwater supply • Harbor operations • Agricultural productivity • Waste water systems • Sandy beaches • Coral reef ecosystems • Cultural resources • Nesting habitat

• Atolls are especially

vulnerable over the near to mid-term (next 25 to 50 years)

Increased Flooding and Erosion Threaten Natural and Built Environments

The Majuro Airport, RMI, courtesy of Marissa Atwood

High water in Waikiki, Courtesy of Chip Fletcher

Taro crops after saltwater inundation, Chuuk State. Courtesy of John Quidachay (USDA Forest Service).

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Climate change will force human migration • There is no single legal entity that governs

climate migrants • Projections of the number of global climate

migrants by 2050 range from 25 million to 1 billion

• Unlike other populations, many Pacific Islanders will not be able to migrate domestically, as their entire country is only a few feet above sea level

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Native plant and animal populations will be increasingly stressed

• Different impacts are interconnected and will combine to alter ecosystem function

• Rising air temperatures, especially at high elevations, could exacerbate invasive species problems

• Increasing sea surface temperatures are correlated with more coral bleaching events

Generalized effects of increased greenhouse gases on oceanic and coastal ecosystems in the tropical Pacific, Bell et al., 2011

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The Distribution of Regional Coastal and Pelagic Fisheries Will Shift

• Changing ocean temperatures will shift habitats througout the food chain

• Some countries fisheries will prosper from these shifts, and some will be negatively impacted

↑30%

↓34%

↓28%

Projected changes in primary production, From Polovina et al., 2011

2080-2099

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Rates of Coral Reef Formation are Declining

• New global stresses – Higher temperatures

(bleaching) – Ocean acidification

(reduced growth)

• Shift from coral/coralline algae to algae ecosystems

Tropical Pacific coral reef, Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, courtesy of J. Maragos

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By 2050, many coral reefs may bleach annually

Future reef bleaching frequency based on IPCC A1b (business as usual) emissions scenarios, Burke et al., 2011; data adapted from Donner, 2009.

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Mangrove and Seagrass Ecosystems are Expected to Diminish

• Mangroves are vulnerable to sea level rise, especially along developed or steep coasts – 50-80% loss predicted by

2100

• Seagrasses vulnerable to increased temperature, runoff

Photo Boricuaeddie, wikimedia commons

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Low Island Ecosystems are at High Risk

• Sea-level rise, wave overwash, and coastal inundation will contribute to loss of terrestrial ecosystems

• These changes will eventually reduce or eliminate endemic terrestrial species and nesting habitat on many small islands

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High Island Ecosystems are Changing

• High elevation ecosystems are at high risk, due to increase in ambient temperature and decrease in rainfall

• Existing climate zones are projected to shift, generally upslope, with some eventually disappearing

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Haleakala silversword (Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum) Courtesy of NPS

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Invasive and Native Species Interactions will be Varied • Invasive species’ responses to climate change will

interact with those of native species to determine the composition of future ecosystems.

– Invasive marine and freshwater algae, fish, invertebrates

– Terrestrial weeds, invertebrates, disease vectors

Photo: Volcanoes Nat. Park

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The Changing Climate Poses Serious Consequences for Regional Cultures

threatens traditional food sources such as taro, and changing ocean conditions will likely threaten subsistence fisheries

• Inundation from sea-level rise may destroy coastal artifacts and structures or even the entire land base associated with a particular culture

• Climate-related environmental deterioration coupled with other socioeconomic motivations, may lead individuals, families, or communities to consider migrating to a new location

• Traditional lifestyles and indigenous cultures will be increasingly altered

• Drought and saltwater intrusion

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Data & Observations are Needed to Support Adaptation and Management

• The Pacific Islands region has experienced a decrease in climate monitoring stations – Rainfall, streamflow,

waves, and ecosystem data are all critical

• The ability to assess future climate changes in meaningful detail is at risk

Number of streamgages, USGS Pacific Islands Water Science Center, 2011

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The Pacific Region has some of the highest-quality data in the world • The longest high-quality

record of atmospheric CO2 in the world

The Mauna Loa Observatory, © Forest M. Mims III

The Keeling Curve record from 1958-2011. Courtesy of Pieter Tans and Ralph Keeling

• Station ALOHA has been collecting ocean acidification data for 20+ years

• HaleNet collects climate data across the slopes of Haleakalā

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Key Findings • Low islands, coral reefs, nearshore and coastal areas on

high islands, and high-elevation ecosystems are most vulnerable to climatic changes

• Freshwater supplies will be more limited on many Pacific

Islands, especially low islands, as the quantity and quality of water in aquifers and surface catchments change in response to warmer, drier conditions coupled with increased occurrences of saltwater intrusion

• Rising sea levels will incrementally increase the likelihood of

coastal flooding and erosion, damaging coastal infrastructure and agriculture, negatively impacting tourism, reducing habitat for endangered species, and threatening shallow reef systems.

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Key Findings • Higher sea-surface temperatures will increase coral

bleaching, leading to a change in coral species composition, coral disease, and coral death.

• Rising ocean acidification and changing carbonate chemistry

will have negative consequences for the insular and pelagic marine ecosystems; although potentially dramatic, the exact nature of the consequences is not yet clear.

• Distribution patterns of coastal and ocean fisheries will be

altered, with potential for increased catches in some areas and decreased catches in other areas, but open-ocean fisheries being affected negatively overall in the long term.

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Key Findings • Threats to traditional lifestyles of indigenous communities in

the region will make it increasingly difficult for Pacific Island cultures to sustain their connection with a defined place and their unique set of customs, beliefs, and languages

• Mounting threats to food and water security, infrastructure,

and public health and safety will lead increasingly to human migration from low islands to high islands and continental sites.

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Information and Research Needs • Further research on historical, current, and future climate

trends. Data documenting changes in ocean chemistry and terrestrial ecosystems are particularly sparse.

• Development and testing of integrated biogeochemical and physical models to provide a better understanding of ecological responses to climate change.

• Deeper understanding of human responses to climate change is

needed to inform to inform adaptation, identify barriers to the use of climate information decision-makers, and facilitate development of visualization tools and decision support systems.

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Partnerships Between Research Scientists and Decision-Makers are Crucial • The Pacific Islands face complex and

multidimensional problems • Neither science nor management alone can

adequately address climate change impacts • The PIRCA Forum today is a chance for the

Pacific Islands to work to bridge that gap

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Mahalo to all involved and all interested

PIRCA Core Team Stephen Anthony (USGS PIWSC), Tim Brown (WRCC, DRI), Jeff Burgett (PICCC, FWS), Dolan Eversole (Sea Grant, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa), Melissa L. Finucane (East-West Center, Pacific RISA), Charles Fletcher (SOEST, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa), Kevin Hamilton (IPRC, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa), Victoria W. Keener (East-West Center, Pacific RISA), Dawn Kotowicz (NOAA PIFSC), John J. Marra (NOAA NCDC), Mark Merrifield (JIMAR, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa), Stephen E. Miller (FWS), Britt Parker (NOAA CRCP), Noriko Shoji (NOAA NMFS), Deanna Spooner (PICCC), Adam Stein (NOAA PSC), William V. Sweet (NOAA COOPS), Jean Tanimoto (NOAA PSC) And the dozens of experts who participated in workshops and peer-review 37

Dr. Melissa Finucane FinucanM@EastWestCenter.org Senior Fellow, East-West Center

Lead Principal Investigator Pacific RISA

Dr. Victoria Keener

KeenerV@EastWestCenter.org Fellow, East-West Center

Pacific RISA

Dr. John Marra john.marra@noaa.gov

NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Pacific Region

Deanna Spooner deanna.spooner@piccc.net Coordinator, Pacific Islands

Climate Change Cooperative

To Download the PIRCA Reports: http://www.eastwestcenter.org/PIRCA

Photo: Diana Kim, 2012 38