plum creek ceo rick holley - keynote speaker
TRANSCRIPT
Plum Creek:Forest Products Recovery Underway
Arkansas Forestry Association Annual Meeting
Rick HolleyChief Executive OfficerOctober 2, 2013
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Safe Harbor
THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words such as “believes,” “expects,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “seeks,” “approximately,” “intends,” “plans,” “estimates,” “projects,” “strategy” or “anticipates” or the negative of those words or other comparable terminology. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. Some of these factors include, but are not limited to: changes in governmental, legislative and environmental restrictions; catastrophic losses from fires, floods, conditions and competition in our domestic and export markets; our failure to qualify as a REIT or a reduction in the demand for timber products and/or an unanticipated increase in the supply of timber products; our failure to make strategic acquisitions or to integrate any such acquisitions effectively; the market for and our ability to sell or exchange non-strategic timberlands and timberland properties that have higher and better uses; and other factors described from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, and speak only as of the date made, and neither Plum Creek nor its management undertakes any obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements.
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Plum Creek
U.S. Holdings: 6.3 million acres
• Timber• Land• Subsurface
assets
4
About Plum Creek
• Largest independent seller of wood fiber in the United States
• Operate in every major wood producing region
• More than 2,200 truckloads of logs on the road each day
• Established customer relationships with more than 700 customer facilities in 19 states
5
Nearly 25 Years of Innovative Timberland Management
1989
• First pure play timber investment available
1999
• Pioneered the timber-REIT• First to certify all timberland as sustainably managed
2002
• Leader in portfolio management, optimizing HBU identification and dispositions
2012
• Serving the emerging bioenergy customer base
6
Sustainable Forestry is at the Heart of our Land Management
• Balances timber growth and harvest while protecting wildlife, plants, soil and water quality
All timberlands SFI® certified since 1999
Conservation outcome on 1.4 million acres since 1989
Habitat Conservation Plans protect endangered species on over 1.1 million acres
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Value in Every Acre in our Portfolio
Timber• Growing harvest, sustainably managed• Unmatched diversity, unique market insight
Land• Capture premium recreation and conservation values• Create value through entitlement of select lands
Non-Timber Resources• Valuable subsurface and surface resources • Ongoing royalty streams
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Broad Timberland Portfolio Creates Advantages
Superior Risk Management• Diversify local market and end-market risk• Mitigate physical risk of catastrophic loss
Unique Market Insight• National perspective on timber and timberland markets• Sharing of market information and best practices to improve
market intelligence and performance
Greater Operational Flexibility• Ability to shift activity to most attractive geographies• Ability to modify harvest mix to serve most attractive end-use
markets
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Plum Creek in Arkansas
Acreage• Plum Creek 720,000• Forest Industry 5,454,000• Total Timberlands 18,830,000
Statistics • Employees 46• Contractors Employed
43• Customers/Mills
43
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Media Headlines
• Housing Starts Up in August
• U.S. Economy Grows Faster than Expected
• Building Permits Up in Country
• Beetle Whittles Down Timber Supply
• Beetle Infestation Drives Up Lumber Prices
• Northwest Wood Products Feed Hungry Asian Market
• Georgia Pacific Investing $400 Million in Plants
• New Klausner Sawmill to be Built in Florida
• Plum Creek to Reopen Evergreen Sawmill as Lumber Prices Double
• Lumber Sector Enters ‘Super Cycle’ as U.S. Housing Recovery Gains Steam
• Lumber Prices Could Rise 25% in 2013
Arkansas:• Northwest Arkansas Construction Stays
Hot
• Cash Investors Helping to Drive Northwest Arkansas Housing Market
• Building Worth $1.1 Million Set in City: Includes Church, Residences, Other Projects
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Average Annual U.S. Housing Starts
U.S. Housing Starts on the Rise
1985 1987 1989 1991 1994 1996 1998 2000 2003 2005 2007 2010 2012 2014 2016 -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Mill
ion
units
per
yea
r
Source: US Census, Harvard Joint Center for Housing
Long-term demographic demand projected to drive to 1.5 million + annual housing starts
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North American Lumber Production
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Billi
ons
of B
oard
Fee
t
Source: RISI
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Shrinking Canadian Supply
Source: Natural Resources, Canada; BC Ministry of Forests: 2012 Summary of Forest Health Conditions in British Columbia
• B.C. has produced 25% of North America’s lumber· More than half of pine trees in B.C. are dead
due to infestation from the Mountain Pine Beetle
· 60+ years before B.C. forests will fully recover
· Harvests and production will likely decline by 20%
• Eastern Canada also expected to lower harvest levels by 20% to achieve sustainable rotations
• Canada has supplied up to 35% of the lumber used in the United States - this market share will likely shrink below 25%
Extent of Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation: 2011
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Offshore Lumber Exports have Doubled, Growing by 3 Bbf
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
1
2
3
4
5
6
7North American Lumber Exports
Rest of World China
Source: RISI, B.C. Ministry of Forests, Mines and Land, Random Lengths
Bill
ion
boar
d fe
et 3 Bbf
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Normalized North American Demand is Estimated to be about 67 Bbf of Lumber, up 23% from 2012
64 Bbf 3 Bbf 67
Bbf
1.5 millionstarts
NormalizedDemand
New ChineseDemand
16Source: Wood Markets Benchmarking Reports, Plum Creek estimates
U.S. Producers are Well-positioned on the Cost CurveUS
$/m
bf n
et –
Lum
ber B
asis
20040
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$215$244
$284 $286
20120
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$236 $246$270
$315Sawmilling Costs: Average Mill
Brit
ish
Col
umbi
a
Brit
ish
Col
umbi
a
US
Wes
t
US
Sout
h
US
Sout
h
US
Wes
t
East
ern
Can
ada
East
ern
Can
ada
Strong Canadian Dollar also a factor
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For Supply to Meet Demand, the U.S. South will Need to Produce Lumber at Levels Beyond its Prior Peak
1998-2002
Peak2005
Trough2009
Recent2012 Future
% Change from 2012
U.S. Starts 1.63 2.07 0.55 0.78 1.50
Lumber Supply (Billion Board Feet)Canada 30 34 19 23 24U.S. West 17 19 10 13 17U.S. South 17 19 12 14 21 +50%Rest of U.S. 2 2 1 2 2Offshore Imports 2 3 1 1 3
TOTAL SUPPLY* 67 78 43 53 67
* Totals do not add due to roundingSource: US Census Bureau, RISI, Random Lengths, Plum Creek estimates
67 Bbf
Southern Production and Price
Source: Timber Mart-South (TMS), WOOD MARKETS 18
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Annual Southern Lumber Production TMS SYP Sawlog Prices
Billi
on B
oard
Fee
t Lum
ber
Saw
log
Pric
e pe
r Ton
/Stu
mpa
ge
1997 – 2007 Average - $38.00/Ton
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$80 million investment to buy existing mills
Capital Flowing into U.S. South is a Leading Indicator for Increased Sawlog Demand in the Region
$400 million mill capacity expansion
$150 million mill capacity expansion
$240 million investment to build two new mills
$80+ million investment to buy existing mills
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European Energy Policy is Driving Demand Growth for Wood Pellets
European Union’s renewable energy targets by 2020• 20% reduction in greenhouse gases• 20% increase in renewable energy• 20% increase in energy efficiency
Wood replacing coal for power generation• Supported by policy; wood is carbon neutral
UK is an early adopter; carbon tax and incentives in place• Committed to “decarbonizing” the power sector• Carbon tax of £11/ton of coal expected increasing to £40/ ton of coal
by 2015Source: Hawkins Wright
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$200 million investment for two new mills
$300 million investment in new Louisiana mill$190 million repurpose of chip mill in Texas
$200 million investment for two new mills
$200 million investment for two new mills
Wood Pellet Mills are Breaking Ground in the U.S. South
•Well over $1 billion of capital investment announced
$325 million investment for three new mills
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Southern Softwood Pulpwood is Low Cost on a Global Basis
U.S. Nort
hwes
t
U.S. Sou
thBraz
ilSpa
inChile
NW Russia NZ
W. Can
ada
Austra
liaJa
pan
Sweden
German
y
France
Finland
E. Can
ada
Norway
020406080
100120140160180200
$74 $75$84 $86 $86 $90 $98 $99 $104
$134$148$150
$161$163$163$177
Deliv
ered
Pric
e US
$/O
dmt
Source: Wood Resources International, Q1 2013 Odmt: oven dried metric ton
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Announced Mills are Locating In Multiple Plum Creek Timber Basins Across the South
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Industry Challenges
Contractor Capacity
• Contractor workforce declined approximately 25% since 2005• Demand for contractors increasing as recovery progresses
• Contractor shortage an issue - expect trend to continue• Higher production rates • Decreased interest in logging – few new entrants• Barriers to entry - capital, labor
• Plum Creek• Provides core contractors with base load volumes to support their
business • Gives pass-through fuel adjustments • Supports organizations like AFA that promote logging
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Clean Water Act (Forest Roads)
• Three year legal battle over Point/Nonpoint Designation for Forest Roads has not resolved the issue
• U.S. Supreme Court decision supportive, but…• Legislation is the best way to get a permanent solution
• Bipartisan support• Farm Bill possible vehicle
• AFA has been an active advocate for this issue
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Clean Air Act (Tailoring Rule)
• Three years ago EPA declared CO2 a pollutant• EPA proposed treating biomass emissions the same as
fossil fuels • Congressional pressure has been effective with
Administration and EPA• AFA has joined NAFO, AF&PA and others in support
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Summary
• Increased demand and reduced supply are driving a rebound in the U.S. timber and wood products industry
• Renewable energy is providing new demand for biomass and pulpwood
• Key trends are translating into major opportunities for Southern forest products communities
• Challenges remaining – must work together to address