cefc    PM  20121122  Press  Meeting  November  22,  2012      Politics    The  Politburo  Standing  Committee    1. XI  JINPING  

a. Many  commented  on  his  speech:  “我们的人民热爱生活，期盼有更好的教育、更稳定的工作、更满意的收入、更可靠的社会保障、更高水平的医疗卫生服务、更舒适

的居住条件、更优美的环境，期盼着孩子们能成长得更好、工作得更好、生活得更

好。人民对美好生活的向往，就是我们的奋斗目标。”  i. Did  not  repeat  Hu’s  slogans,  “very  frank  and  showed  his  consideration  for  

the  people”,  “speaks  with  a  human  touch”  ii. IHT:  Spoke  in  clear  mandarin  Chinese,  reflecting  his  upbringing  as  the  son  of  

a  high-­‐ranking  official  in  Beijing.1  2. LI  KEQIANG  

a. Wang  Juntao:  “Like  all  of  us  back  then,  Li  Keqiang  was  idealistic,  open-­‐minded,  incisive  and  eager  to  see  China  change”.  Chen  Ziming:  “We  all  have  a  hope  that  he  hasn’t  abandoned  the  beliefs  of  his  youth,  perhaps  we  are  hoping  for  too  much.”  

b. At  Tiananmen,  “when  friends  threw  themselves  into  the  protests  that  swamped  Tiananmen  Square,  Mr.  Li,  in  his  role  as  league  secretary,  pleaded  with  them  to  return  to  campus,  according  to  the  memoirs  of  several  participants.”  

c. In  Henan,  he  was  accused  of  covering  up  the  AIDS  crisis.  Director  of  Aizhixing  Institute:  “Li  Keqiang  should  be  sentenced  to  life  in  prison  for  official  misconduct”.2  

3. ZHANG  DEJIANG  4. YU  ZHENGSHENG  5. LIU  YUNSHAN:  Xinzhou,  Shanxi  province  

a. Served  as  party  propaganda  chief  since  1993,  joined  Politburo  in  2002.  b. Criticized  for  increasingly  draconian  press  controls  and  online  policing.  Qiao  Mu:  

Liu’s  department  micromanages  the  press  like  a  firefighter  putting  out  lots  of  small  fires.  Media  outlets  flooded  with  daily  gag  orders.3  

c. Johnny  Lau:  Liu’s  promotion  due  to  allegiance  to  Jiang,  indicating  conservatives  have  gained  upper  hand  in  leadership  negotiations.  

6. WANG  QISHAN  a. NYT:  Wang  most  able  to  take  on  management  of  China’s  economy.  However,  “he  was  

shunted  aside  to  be  head  of  an  anticorruption  commission  because  Li  Keqiang,  the  second-­‐ranked  party  member  and  designated  heir  to  the  title  of  government  premier,  which  carries  overall  responsibility  for  the  economy,  and  other  leaders  feared  sharing  that  power  with  the  confident  Mr.  Wang  would  cause  friction.”4  Demonstrate  antimeritocracy  logic  in  leadership  selection.  

7. ZHANG  GAOLI    The  official  appraisal    1. Xinhua:  They  are  “from  the  people”:  “have  witnessed  and  endured  China's  vicissitudes  and  

hardships  over  the  last  six  decades,  including  the  Cultural  Revolution  (1966-­‐1976).”5  

                                                                                                               1  IHT,  2012/11/16  2  NYT,  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/16/world/asia/li-­‐keqiang-­‐named-­‐chinas-­‐prime-­‐minister.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=asia&    3  SCMP,  2012/11/14  4  NYT,  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/18/world/asia/family-­‐ties-­‐and-­‐hobnobbing-­‐are-­‐keys-­‐to-­‐power-­‐in-­‐china.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=asia&    5  Xinhua,  http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/2012-­‐11/15/c_131977176.htm    

a. “Xi,  Li,  Zhang  Dejiang  and  Wang  toiled  in  communes  and  villages  during  the  Cultural  Revolution,  when  millions  of  high  school  graduates  were  sent  to  rural  areas  to  receive  "re-­‐education"  from  peasants  and  help  with  rural  development.”  

b. “Yu  worked  as  a  technician  at  a  radio  factory  in  the  city  of  Zhangjiakou  in  north  China's  Hebei  province  for  a  few  years,  while  Liu  was  a  teacher  before  becoming  a  reporter  at  the  Xinhua  News  Agency.  Zhang  Gaoli  was  a  craneman  and  loader  at  an  oil  company  in  south  China's  Guangdong  province  after  graduating  from  university.”  

2. “Unlike  their  predecessors,  the  new  leaders  grew  up  in  a  peaceful  time,  which  offered  them  a  chance  to  receive  better  education  than  previous  generations  […]  As  witnesses  and  participants  in  ongoing  globalization,  the  new  leaders  also  have  a  broad  vision  and  know  how  to  deal  with  the  international  community.”  

3. Global  Times:  第二代向第三代平稳交班时，被外界看成是先例；第三代向第四代平稳交班时，被看成是惯例；而第四代向第五代平稳交班，将被看成是程序。  

 Assessment  of  the  lineup    Mostly  critical:  

• Telegraph  editorial,  “No  change  in  China”:  “The  new  elite  running  the  world’s  second  biggest  economy  and  would-­‐be  superpower  is  just  as  it  seems:  cautious,  conformist  and  circumspect.”6  

 Influence  of  the  “old  guards”  1. Reuters,  citing  sources  with  ties  to  leadership:  Retired  leaders  used  last-­‐minute  straw  poll  to  

block  Wang  Yang  and  Li  Yuanchao  from  joining  the  PSC.7  a. The  two  sources  said  votes  were  taken  among  the  outgoing  24  members  of  the  

Politburo  and  over  10  party  elders.  The  group  held  over  10  rounds  of  deliberations,  including  at  least  2  informal  polls,  over  several  months  at  Beijing’s  Jingxi  Hotel.  

b. Party  elders  decided  to  drop  Wang  Yang  “to  avoid  further  upsetting  pro-­‐Mao  factions  in  the  party,  government  and  military”  

c. Li  Yuanchao  was  selected  in  initial  polls  in  May,  but  party  elders  forced  another  vote  just  weeks  before  the  congress  to  replace  him.  “Li  was  dumped  because  he  alienated  some  elders  by  promoting  too  many  of  outgoing  President  Hu  Jintao’s  allies  in  his  capacity  as  head  of  the  party’s  personnel  department  and  by  ignoring  recommendations  by  retirees  keen  to  elevate  their  own  men.”  Result:  Li  dropped  in  favor  of  Yu  Zhengsheng.  

d. Sources:  “Li  is  now  tipped  to  become  either  a  vice  chairman  of  parliament  or  vice  president  in  March,  while  Wang  is  a  shoo-­‐in  to  become  a  vice  premier”  

2. Ming  Pao  on  Li  Yuanchao:    a. 作为两任总书记江泽民、胡锦涛家乡的江苏，近10年来一直风光无限。无论是全国「两会」，还是十七大、十八大，胡锦涛都作为江苏团代表，参加江苏团的审议

与讨论，更令江苏分外露脸。  b. 这几年，在江苏，无论省级机关还是基层市、县，各级官员张口闭口最喜欢称「源潮书记」，有意显示出自己与李源潮的亲近关系。  江苏官员之间甚至弥漫悲壮的氛围。大批指望跟「源潮书记」沾光的官员希望落空。8  

3. “Pre-­‐election”  results  according  to  Trend  Magazine9  《外參》：  中央委員投票結果也顯示：習近平獲得全票，達2306張；李克強得票也達2305張，僅比習近平少一張票。  在政治局常委中，中央書記處書記劉雲山得票最少。顯示即使在中共內部，他也是在常委中最不得人

心的。觀察人士普遍認為，在李長春和劉雲山管制下，中國新聞界受到文革結束以來最粗

暴的打壓。劉雲山升上常委，最關鍵的因素是他促成了一本拍江澤民馬屁的英文傳記出版

。10  4. IHT:  Reflects  strong  hand  of  Jiang  Zemin  

                                                                                                               6  Telegraph,  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-­‐view/9680522/No-­‐change-­‐in-­‐China.html    7  Reuters,  http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/21/us-­‐china-­‐congress-­‐poll-­‐idUSBRE8AK01F20121121    8  Ming  Pao,  2012/11/18  9  Trend  Magazine,  Nov  2012,  p.  10.  10  Mingjing,  http://www.mingjingnews.com/2012/11/blog-­‐post_9596.html    

5. NYT  citing  former  official:  “In  China,  if  I  promote  you,  then  on  major  issues  you’re  supposed  to  heed  me.”  Cite  study  by  Victor  Shih  et  al.  published  in  February  in  American  Political  Science  Review:11  

a. Patronage  networks  more  important  than  performance  measures:  Even  meeting  the  target  for  economic  growth  paled  in  importance  next  to  patron-­‐client  ties.    

b. Cadre  management  institutions  “delivered  promotions  to  followers  of  senior  party  leaders”;  “no  relationship  between  growth  performance  and  party  ranking,  and  a  strong  relationship  between  factional  ties  and  rank.”  

6. BBC  Chinese:  The  triumph  of  political  conservatism12  a. “習近平本人正是在江澤民一系的支持下五年前突然取代胡錦濤屬意的李克強成為總書記人選；新常委中的張德江、俞正聲、劉雲山等三人十年前也都是在江澤民的

一  手提拔下進入政治局的；張高麗的每一次提拔也都得到了江澤民的關照。至於王岐山，雖然一向被看作是前總理朱鎔基的門徒，但是他與江的關係肯定比與胡的

關係更密切  b. 雖然從人事安排的角度看，江澤民一系是十八大的勝利者，但是從政治路線的角度看，江澤民和胡錦濤並沒有本質的區別。他們所代表的是中共內部一脈相承的政治

保守主義。嚴格說來，十八大是中國精英集團所奉行的政治保守主義的勝利。是期

待共產黨領導改革的黨內改革人士的又一次挫敗，也是期待政治變革的中國社會進

步力量的一次挫敗。”    Xi  Jinping’s  ability    1. IHT:  Looking  ahead,  all  five  members  aside  from  Li  Keqiang  are  in  the  mid-­‐60s  and  are  all  

likely  to  retire  in  five  years.  “Given  the  intensely  consuming  task  of  negotiating  top  leadership  slots  among  competing  factions,  finding  suitable  replacements  for  these  five  could  use  up  much  of  Mr  Xi’s  political  capital”.13  

2. Willy  Lam:  “Given  the  predominance  of  conservatism  in  the  Report  [By  Hu]  —and  the  Byzantine  fashion  in  which  the  new  corps  of  leaders  has  been  chosen—it  seems  unlikely  that  the  leadership  under  General  Secretary  Xi  Jinping  will  push  reformist  goals  and  policies  in  the  foreseeable  future.”14  

3. 《南德意志报》 : “一个人怎么才能从国家利益出发，制服并打破那些国有经济巨头？这些经济巨头把持了对所有重要工业领域的可怖的垄断地位，而这些经济巨头又都受党的 几乎所有最高领导成员们的家属的熟人、亲戚和生意伙伴领导和剥削。今天要当一个改革者几

乎要比邓小平时代还艰难：当时，争论仅围绕意识形态进行。今天，出现了一个人数虽少

但非常强大的既得利益集团，它会不惜一切捍卫其权势，捍卫其对几乎不会枯竭的资金来

源的占有。”15 4. Wang  Xiangwei,  SCMP:  “Xi  might  surprise  naysayers  in  West”16  

a. Attacked  the  association  of  Jiang’s  allies  as  “hardliners”  and  “conservatives”  and  Hu’s  “liberals”  and  “reformists”:  Ten-­‐year  reign  of  Hu  and  Wen  has  been  called  the  “lost  decade”  due  to  lack  of  meaningful  economic  and  political  reform.  Many  Chinese  now  nostalgic  for  Jiang’s  13-­‐year  reign.  

                                                                                                               11  NYT,  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/18/world/asia/family-­‐ties-­‐and-­‐hobnobbing-­‐are-­‐keys-­‐to-­‐power-­‐in-­‐china.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=asia&  APSR  paper,  http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8504683  Abstract  of  paper  excerpt:  “[We]  find  no  evidence  that  strong  growth  performance  was  rewarded  with  higher  party  ranks  at  any  of  the  postreform  party  congresses.  Instead,  factional  ties  with  various  top  leaders,  educational  qualifications,  and  provincial  revenue  collection  played  substantial  roles  in  elite  ranking,  suggesting  that  promotion  systems  served  the  immediate  needs  of  the  regime  and  its  leaders,  rather  than  encompassing  goals  such  as  economic  growth.”  12  http://www.mingjingnews.com/2012/11/blog-­‐post_6907.html    13  IHT,  2012/11/16  14  China  Brief,  http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40122&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=3f77881583fe99836d8896e1e5974736    15  Deutsche  Welle,  http://www.dw.de/%E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6%E5%B0%86%E6%8E%A3%E8%82%98%E6%96%B0%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E4%BA%BA/a-­‐16382889    16  SCMP,  2012/11/19  

b. Why  there  is  hope  for  Xi:  i. Reduced  size  of  PSC:  In  the  past  decade  the  nine  committee  members  

functioned  like  line  managers  in  multinationals,  responsible  only  for  own  portfolios.  Reduced  size  give  Xi  greater  control.  

ii. As  close  ally  of  Jiang,  much  easier  for  Xi  to  get  support  from  other  leaders  in  addressing  vested  interest  groups.  

iii. How  to  deal  with  both  Jiang  and  Hu  breathing  down  his  back?  Latest  speculation  that  party  elders  have  reached  consensus  to  give  Xi  a  freer  hand.  

c. All  these  “explain  why  we  saw  a  confident  and  relaxed  Xi  giving  an  inspirational  speech”  that  abandoned  slogans.  

 Pecking  order    1. SCMP:  Three  changes  

a. Position  of  Premier  goes  back  to  No.  2,  going  back  to  old  practice  dropped  15  years  ago  (In  1992,  when  Li  Peng  was  ranked  right  after  Jiang  Zemin).  In  1997,  Zhu  Rongji  took  over  as  premier  put  was  put  behind  Li  Peng.  Wen  Jiabao  also  ranked  third  after  Wu  Bangguo,  NPC  chairman.  

b. Also,  6th  place  given  to  Wang  Qishan,  disciplinary  chief,  before  Zhang  Gaoli,  poised  to  take  over  as  executive  vice-­‐premier.  Make  premier  more  powerful.  

c. Removal  of  zhengfawei  secretary.    Education  background  of  new  leaders    1. Noticeable  break  from  previous  domination  by  technocrats:  six  out  of  seven  in  the  PSC  are  

trained  in  the  social  sciences  and  humanities.  Only  technocrat  being  Yu  Zhengsheng,  who  studied  automated  control  systems  for  ballistic  missiles.  

2. Analysts  cited  by  SCMP:  Technocrats  more  plan-­‐oriented,  whereas  new  leaders  may  focus  more  on  living  environment  and  well-­‐being.  Will  care  more  about  human  development.17  

3. Overall  composition  of  Politburo,  from  SCMP:    

     Ideological  battles;  factional  struggles    1. Sydney  Morning  Herald  on  banker  He  Di:  Former  chairman  of  UBS  China,  founder  of  Boyuan  

Foundation,  a  think  tank  promoting  “universal  values”  a. “The  party's  ''deep  red''  ideological  spear-­‐carriers  have  been  fighting  as  if  their  lives  

are  on  the  line.  The  neo-­‐Maoists  -­‐  to  use  He  Di's  term  -­‐  are  sceptical  of  private  capital,  appalled  by  rampant  corruption  and  antagonistic  towards  what  they  see  as  dangerous  Western  values.  These  adversaries,  whose  heroes  include  the  fallen  political  star  Bo  Xilai  and  the  politically-­‐wounded  corruption-­‐fighting  general,  Liu  

                                                                                                               17  SCMP,  2012/11/20  

Yuan,  have  a  term  for  everything  that  He  Di's  Boyuan  represents:  ''the  Western  hostile  forces''.”  

b. Identify  “turning  point”  back  to  centralization  in  2003:  “the  administration  drifted  away  from  ''opening  and  reform''  and  the  nascent  internet  space  began  to  fill  with  critics  of  privatisation  and  reform.  Leaders  are  isolated  from  their  mid-­‐level  officials,  each  bureaucracy  is  siloed  from  the  next,  and  there  is  no  framework  to  mediate  their  interests  or  debate  the  wider  merits  of  any  particular  proposal,  he  says.  And  once  they  started  back  down  the  old  road  of  central  planning,  they  grew  addicted  to  the  power  it  brought  them.  

2. Hu’s  failure  to  get  Hunan  party  chief  Zhou  Qiang  and  his  former  chief  of  staff  Ling  Jihua  promoted  to  Politburo.  Speculation  on  role  of  the  Ling  Gu  scandal:  

a. New  book  《中共高層內鬥驚聞》by 齊聲珅:  “薄熙來事件本來大損太子黨，有利團派，但令計劃醜聞一出，幾乎斷送了整個團派，加上胡錦濤的不作為和能力有限，

團派如今提前完蛋，可以說，團派亡于胡令，未來核心位子一般不會給團派了。”18  b. Apple  Daily  Zhang  Hua:  “令計劃九月被調離中辦，改任統戰部長，十八大無法晉身政治局；作為令背後的領導，胡錦濤豈能置身事外，江澤民等元老還不乘機發難，

分掉原屬於胡的權力蛋糕？這應是十八大遲遲無法達成人事安排共識，以及胡錦濤

被奪權的原因！”19  3. Zhou  Qiang  vs.  Little  Hu?  

a. Boxun:  《大事件》雜志披露，胡春華能取代周強，成為胡錦濤屬意的接班人，主要原因應當就是年齡優勢。周強1960年出生。至中共20大第六代接班時，已經62歲，很可能幹不了二屆任期。而小三歲的胡春華屆時可以幹滿兩屆，這對於胡錦濤

的權力佈局十分重要。  b. 1963生，與習近平相差整十年，正好形成接班梯隊。為了讓其儘快積累資本和履歷，胡錦濤在提拔胡春華方面不遺餘力，而且超越常規，以致寧可得罪自己的另一

個弟子周強。20  4. Brookings  on  the  political  prospect  of  Zhou  Qiang:  “Zhou  Qiang’s  solid  legal  training  and  

administrative  background  have  positioned  him  very  well  at  a  time  when  the  CCP  leadership  is  concerned  about  the  urgent  need  to  promote  judicial  development,  especially  in  the  wake  of  the  Bo  Xilai  crisis.  He  will  likely  take  a  top  position  in  one  of  the  major  cities  or  provinces  such  as  Chongqing  or  Sichuan.  He  may  also  serve  as  head  of  one  of  the  Central  Committee  departments.  He  is  known  for  his  very  strong  advocacy,  especially  among  Chinese  provincial  leaders,  of  the  rule  of  law,  environmental  protection,  the  promotion  of  strategic  emerging  industries,  and  green  consumption.  He  will  likely  make  these  developments  his  pet  issues  when  he  moves  to  the  national  leadership.”21  

 Other  appointments    1. Zhengfawei  secretary:  Meng  Jianzhu  (孟建柱)  takes  over  from  Zhou  Yongkang.  

a. Analysts  cited  by  SCMP:  Effectively  signaled  downgrading  of  the  Political  and  Legal  Affairs  Commission.    

b. Kerry  Brown:  “At  the  very  least  a  very  big  rebuke  to  Zhou,  who  has  truly  been  a  disaster  for  1.3  billion  Chinese  people”22  

2. Central  Organization  Department  chief:  Zhao  Leji  (赵乐际)  takes  over  from  Li  Yuanchao.  a. Zhao:  “我是从一名普通的知识青年成长为一名党的高级干部，青海烙印，深深打下；青海情节，刻骨铭心；深情眷恋，难以释怀。”  Promoted  to  Shaanxi  provincial  party  secretary  from  2007.23  

                                                                                                               18  Mingjing,  http://www.mingjingnews.com/2012/11/blog-­‐post_4116.html  Details  of  the  book:  作者：齊聲珅  页数：368  出版社：哈耶出版社  出版时间：2012.12  19  Mingjing,  http://www.mingjingnews.com/2012/11/blog-­‐post_174.html    20  Boxun,  http://boxun.com/news/gb/china/2011/02/201102142330.shtml    21  Brookings,  http://www.brookings.edu/about/centers/china/top-­‐future-­‐leaders/zhou_qiang    22  SCMP,  2012/11/20  23  Caixin,  http://china.caixin.com/2012-­‐11-­‐19/100462547.html    

b. SCMP:  “Given  Zhao’s  relative  youth  and  the  sensitivity  of  his  new  post  –  a  job  usually  given  to  one  of  the  top  leadership’s  most  trusted  allies  –  he  has  emerged  as  one  of  the  country’s  fastest-­‐rising  stars”.24  

3. Central  Publicity  Department  chief:  Liu  Qibao  (刘奇葆)  takes  over  from  Liu  Yunshan.  a. Brookings:  “It  has  been  widely  reported  that  Liu’s  first  principal  patron  was  Wan  Li,  

a  heavyweight  political  leader  who  served  as  first  party  secretary  of  Anhui  Province  from  1977  to  1980,  when  Liu  was  a  mishu  in  the  general  office  of  the  Anhui  Provincial  Party  Committee.”  

b. “He  established  his  client  relationship  with  Hu  Jintao  in  the  early  1980s,  when  Liu  worked  in  the  [Chinese  Communist  Youth  League]  leadership  in  Anhui  Province  and  Hu  was  in  charge  of  the  CCYL  Secretariat.  Liu  and  Wang  Yang  worked  closely  together  at  the  CCYL  Committee  in  Anhui  Province  in  the  early  1980s,  when  Wang  was  Liu’s  deputy.”25  

4. Chongqing  party  chief:  Sun  Zhengcai  (孙政才)  takes  over  from  Zhang  Dejiang.  a. SCMP:  “Sun  is  emblematic  of  younger  officials  of  humbler  backgrounds  who  stand  

apart  from  the  refined,  urban  backgrounds  of  the  likes  of  president-­‐in-­‐waiting  Xi  Jinping  and  other  so-­‐called  “princelings”  -­‐  the  descendants  of  former  senior  revolutionary  leaders.”26  

b. During  his  time  in  as  Jilin  party  secretary,  the  province  joined  "the  trillionaire  GDP  club"  last  year:  Economic  output  hit  1.04  trillion  yuan  (HK$1.3  trillion),  a  14  percent  rise  on  the  previous  year  when  average  growth  rate  was  9.2  percent.  

c. SCMP:  “In  a  political  system  where  rosy  economic  indicators  still  count  in  evaluations  of  government  officials'  performance,  such  top  marks  can  only  help  Sun's  standing  with  the  party  elite.”27  

d. During  his  tenure  as  agriculture  minister,  major  test  of  crisis  management  ability  came  with  contaminated  milk  scandal.  Sun  must  protect  interests  of  hard-­‐hit  dairy  farmers:  implemented  policies  to  support  farmers  across  12  provinces.  

 Politburo    (Bold  type:  Highlighted  by  SCMP  as  “rising  stars”)    In  their  60s:    Ma  Kai  (66):  Previously  led  the  NDRC  Sun  Chunlan  (62):  Only  woman  party  chief  in  Fujian    Tianjin  party  secretary  Li  Jianguo  (66):  Vice  chairman  of  Standing  Committee  of  NPC  Fan  Changlong  (65),  Xu  Qiliang  (62):  Vice  chairmen  of  Central  Military  Commission  Meng  Jianzhu  (65):  Minister  of  public  security  Li  Zhanshu  (62):  Director  of  General  Office  of  CPC  Central  Commitee  Guo  Jinlong  (65):  Beijing  party  chief    In  their  50s:    Wang  Huning  (57):  Previously  member  of  Central  Committee’s  secretariat  

• As  a  trusted  adviser  and  wordsmith  (international  politics  professor  at  Fudan),  “Wang  has  probably  appeared  in  public  more  often  than  any  other  top  official  in  recent  years,  although  he  rarely  speaks  and  often  goes  unrecognised.”  

• “Wang  Huning  played  an  important  role  in  crafting  Jiang's  "theory  of  the  three  represents"  as  well  as  Hu's  "scientific  theory  of  development",  both  of  which  have  been  written  into  the  party's  constitution.”  

Liu  Qibao  (59):  Sichuan  party  chief    Publicity  Department  

                                                                                                               24  SCMP,  2012/11/20  25  Brookings,  http://www.brookings.edu/about/centers/china/top-­‐future-­‐leaders/liu_qibao    26  SCMP,  http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1086551/china-­‐appoints-­‐new-­‐top-­‐official-­‐scandal-­‐ridden-­‐chongqing    27  SCMP,  http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1047214/sun-­‐zhengcai-­‐being-­‐tipped-­‐future-­‐top-­‐leader    

• SCMP:  “The  surprise  elevation  of  Liu  Qibao  ,  party  secretary  of  Sichuan  ,  to  the  Politburo  is  seen  as  a  reward  for  his  role  in  coordinating  the  recovery  of  the  western  province  from  a  deadly  earthquake  on  May  12,  2008.”  

• “Liu  also  oversaw  part  of  a  draconian  crackdown  against  dissidents  who  tried  to  link  the  large  number  of  pupil  deaths  to  substandard  school  buildings  that  collapsed  in  the  quake,  which  killed  nearly  70,000  people  and  left  another  18,000  unaccounted  for.”28  

Zhang  Chunxian  (59):  Xinjiang  party  chief  Zhao  Leji  (55):  Shaanxi  party  chief    Organization  Department  Han  Zheng  (58):  Shanghai  mayor    Shanghai  party  secretary    In  their  40s:    Hu  Chunhua  (49):  Inner  Mongolia  party  chief  Sun  Zhengcai  (49):  Jilin  party  chief,  previously  minister  of  agriculture    Chongqing    Boxun:  “有分析认为，胡锦涛可能已经选定胡春华为2022年中共20大时接替习近平的中共总书记隔代人选，而曾任农业部长的孙政才则有迹象将成为2022年时接替李克强的中国总理的隔代继承人。”29    Central  Committee    1. Election  for  Central  Committee:  margin  increased  minimally  from  8.3  percent  (204  elected  

from  221)  in  the  17th  Congress  to  9.2  percent  (205  elected  from  224).  2. Central  Committee  secretariat:  Headed  by  Liu  Yunshan,  expanded  from  6  to  7  members  

a. Analysts  cited  by  SCMP:  Might  reflect  concern  for  ethnic  unrest30  i. Naming  of  Du  Qinglin:  Former  head  of  United  Front  Work  department.  Role  

highlighted  due  to  identification  of  new  targets,  e.g.  talent  in  private  and  foreign  corporations,  self-­‐employed  professionals  such  as  famous  authors.  

ii. Naming  of  Yang  Jing:  head  of  State  Ethnic  Affairs  Commission.  Intensified  research  into  and  implementation  of  Central  Committee’s  ethnic  minorities  policies  in  wake  of  violent  protests.  

iii. Yang  Jing  named  to  back  up  Du  to  strengthen  united  front  work.    Ming  Pao  opinion  (許百堅):    A  more  confident  China  putting  forth  new  theorizations.  China’s  own  conceptualization  of  “the  China  Model”:  中国特色社会主义这个词，这次在后面加上制度二字，而且是第一次把这个制度写入党代表大会的报告中，意义就完全不同了。当中揭示了中共对这

个新发明的自  信，反映中共自觉在中国特色社会主义这条道路上，不仅有探索、有实践、取得成功，到今天还有了理论支撑、形成制度，并且足以公之于世。31    Taiwan-­China  relations    台灣媒體普遍關注的一個議是有「知台派」之稱的習近平上台後，對台灣意謂著什麼:32    1. 經濟日報:習近平早年在福建擔任要職被視為知台派，兩岸關係習題對習近平來說應是駕輕就熟，亦可期待十八大後兩岸關係可穩步向前邁進。  

2. 自由時報：在集體領導下＂屁股決定腦袋＂，中國併吞台灣手段軟硬兼具，基本圖謀不變，台灣對習近平不能有幻想，心須妥善因應準備。  

3. 中國時報社論：「中共十八大閉幕，台灣真挑戰的開始」：    a. 胡錦濤處理台灣問題核心思維是事緩則圜，水到渠成，只要大陸把經濟問題搞好，台灣問題自然解決。但隨著十八大換屆交班，兩岸關係若要良性發展，首先必須面

對中美競合關係變化。  

                                                                                                               28  SCMP,  http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1083401/politburo-­‐rising-­‐stars    29  Boxun,  http://boxun.com/news/gb/china/2009/12/200912082348.shtml    30  SCMP,  2012/11/16  31  Ming  Pao  opinion,  2012/11/15  32  Mingjing,  http://www.mingjingnews.com/2012/11/blog-­‐post_7719.html    

b. 若中美兩國不能發揮和平相處共榮亞太的大智能，亞太局部衝突發火點恐將相繼引爆，屆時馬英九「親美、和陸、友日」的平衡策略，不無可能從美中左右逢源高招

，淪入進退兩難困境。    US-­China  relations    1. Both  US  and  China  replacing  their  senior  trade  negotiators:  Chen  Deming  did  not  make  

Central  Committee,  and  will  have  to  step  down  as  minister  at  the  NPC  in  March.  a. NYT:  “He  has  a  reputation  as  a  gentlemanly  figure  who  chooses  his  words  with  care  

and  has  not  indulged  in  outspoken  denunciations  of  the  West  during  trade  disputes,  even  as  the  tone  of  social  media  in  China  has  become  increasingly  nationalistic  on  economic  policy.”  Hence  Chen’s  failure  to  win  support  within  “does  not  bode  well  for  future  trade  relations,  and  shows  that  China  is  pushed  by  populism”.33  

b. However,  Chen  has  recently  started  trade  actions  against  imports  of  main  raw  materials  for  solar  panels,  polysilicon,  to  retaliate  against  American  tariffs  and  similar  ones  considered  by  Europe.  

c. Zhou  Xiaochun,  governor  of  China’s  Central  Bank,  also  retiring;  and  Wang  Qishan  will  now  focus  on  corruption  investigations.  On  the  US  side,  Hilary  Clinton,  Tim  Geithner  and  Ron  Kirk  all  expected  to  leave.  Possible  successors  to  Chen  Deming:  Gao  Hucheng  (Chen’s  deputy  at  the  Commerce  Ministry)  and  Huang  Xingguo  (Tianjin  mayor,  may  benefit  from  rise  of  Zhang  Gaoli).  

2. Pei  Minxin:  Top  foreign  policy  priority  for  both  China  and  US  leaders  is  to  “reset  the  tenor  of  Sino-­‐American  relations”.34  

 

                                                                                                               33  NYT,  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/19/business/global/both-­‐us-­‐and-­‐china-­‐will-­‐appoint-­‐new-­‐trade-­‐negotiators.html?ref=asia    34  IHT  opinion,  2012/11/14