pny 美商公司之 black friday 預測需求與分析

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PNY PNY 美美美美美 美美美美美 Black Friday Black Friday 美美美美美美美 美美美美美美美 組組 組組 --------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- ----------- ----------- 9534608 9534608 組組組 組組組 9634524 9634524 組組組 組組組 9634532 9634532 組組組 組組組 9634543 9634543 組組組 組組組 2007/12/28 2007/12/28

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PNY 美商公司之 Black Friday 預測需求與分析. 組員 --------------------------------------------------- 9534608 謝岱高 9634524 廖鎔熠 9634532 黃雅莉 9634543 郭奇龍. 2007/12/28. 大綱. 一、案例背景介紹 二、 文獻探討 三、 研究方法 四、記憶體零售連鎖通路產業分析 五、結論與建議. 案例介紹. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • PNYBlack Friday---------------------------------------------------9534608 9634524 9634532 9634543

    2007/12/28

  • PNY /PNY 2002PNY2005

  • Black Friday114

  • Wallmart)ToysRusBest Buy

  • :USBUSBNANDUSBMB

  • PUSBBlack Friday

  • 3C 3C()(Communication)(Computer)

  • 3C

  • 3C ()

  • McCorkell(1997)RFM RFM (Recent)(Frequency)(Monetary Value)Kahan(1998)RFMRFM

  • (Noise)

  • (Averaging techniques)

    1.

    2. (Weighted average)( 1)

  • RFM

  • RFM ()

  • 1. (Recency) 11 768 10.9 10.922 696 9.9 20.833 778 11.04 31.84 44 435 6.17 38.0155 525 7.45 45.4666 531 7.54 5377 1094 15.53 68.6388 1121 15.91 84.4499 1098 15.58 100 7046 100

  • Chart1

    10.9

    9.9

    11.04

    6.17

    7.45

    7.54

    15.53

    15.91

    15.58

    Sheet1

    76810.910.9

    6969.920.8

    77811.0431.84

    4356.1738.01

    5257.4545.46

    5317.5453

    109415.5368.63

    112115.9184.44

    109815.58100

    7046100100

    Sheet1

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 2. (Frequency)

  • Chart2

    54.7545059043

    19.2044748291

    9.2396933913

    4.6819970996

    3.0453697949

    1.9888129273

    1.4708928941

    5.6142531593

    Sheet1

    76810.910.9

    6969.920.8

    77811.0431.84

    4356.1738.01

    5257.4545.46

    5317.5453

    109415.5368.63

    112115.9184.44

    109815.58100

    7046100100

    Sheet1

    10.9

    9.9

    11.04

    6.17

    7.45

    7.54

    15.53

    15.91

    15.58

    Sheet2

    1264354.754505904354.7545059043

    292719.204474829173.9589807334

    34469.239693391383.1986741247

    42264.681997099687.8806712244

    51473.045369794990.9260410193

    6961.988812927392.9148539466

    7711.470892894194.3857468407

    82715.6142531593100

    4827100100

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 3. (Money)

  • Chart3

    30.8473171742

    22.125543816

    13.4452040605

    10.7727366895

    5.655686762

    5.0756163248

    2.4860161591

    9.5918790139

    Sheet1

    76810.910.9

    6969.920.8

    77811.0431.84

    4356.1738.01

    5257.4545.46

    5317.5453

    109415.5368.63

    112115.9184.44

    109815.58100

    7046100100

    Sheet1

    10.9

    9.9

    11.04

    6.17

    7.45

    7.54

    15.53

    15.91

    15.58

    Sheet2

    1264354.754.7

    292719.273.9

    34469.2383.13

    42264.6887.81

    51473.0490.85

    6961.9892.83

    7711.4794.3

    82715.6199.91

    4827100100

    Sheet3

    ()

    0~500148930.847317174230.8473171742

    500~1000106822.12554381652.9728609903

    1000~150064913.445204060566.4180650508

    1500~200052010.772736689577.1908017402

    2000~25002735.65568676282.8464885022

    2500~30002455.075616324887.922104827

    3000~35001202.486016159190.4081209861

    3500 4639.5918790139100

    4827100100

    Sheet3

  • RFM

  • RFM

  • RFM

  • Market Share Month of September

  • Flash Drive Overview YTD Sept 2007ObservationsPNY holds the #3 share position YTD1GB represents the largest segment within the category with 39% of the unit sell-thru2GB represents 32% of YTD sell-thruUSB Unit Share YTD Sept 2007

    Chart1

    5161372

    2828593

    2621373

    1141979

    1039358

    4663017

    Sheet1

    Total BRAND17,455,692

    Sandisk5,161,372

    Memorex2,828,593

    PNY2,621,373

    Kingston1,141,979

    Sony1,039,358

    Other4,663,017

    Chart1

    0.06878836070.17577421710.52929363210.18512084540.0405982520.0004246927

    0.05823748460.14269221580.48713331260.26227590550.04786929770.0017917838

    0.06640537820.18518094990.36489144230.28513637720.09662261650.0017632358

    0.03693998010.1114563220.404723420.35772554450.08467344510.0044812884

    0.03456522560.0895478410.38915388290.31882634090.16391435480.0039923548

    0.02750791950.09476784610.33193035080.4123861370.12409811920.0093096275

    0.01599523040.10411643430.32096861280.38696967620.15862801550.0133220309

    0.01846814430.12602146630.37399134070.32156411230.14659892610.0133560103

    0.01184160240.10725383860.33225962820.36516841810.16318271890.0202937937

    000000

    000000

    000000

    256MB

    512MB

    1GB

    2GB

    4GB

    8GB

    USB Flash Drive Capacity Trend

    Sheet1

    Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07

    Total MEMSIZE1,770,6921,440,4641,626,5551,239,8221,136,92314656871,705,8212,342,4662,085,613000

    256 MB121,80383,889108,01245,79939,298403182728543,26124,697

    512 MB311,242205,543301,207138,186101,809138900177604295,201223,690

    1.0 GB937,216701,698593,516501,785442,438486506547515876,062692,965

    2.0 GB327,792377,799463,790443,516362,481604429660101753,253761,600

    4.0 GB71,88768,954157,162104,980186,358181889270591343,403340,336

    8.0 GB7522,5812,8685,5564,539136452272531,28642,325

    JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

    256MB6.9%5.8%6.6%3.7%3.5%2.8%1.6%1.8%1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%

    512MB17.6%14.3%18.5%11.1%9.0%9.5%10.4%12.6%10.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%

    1GB52.9%48.7%36.5%40.5%38.9%33.2%32.1%37.4%33.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%

    2GB18.5%26.2%28.5%35.8%31.9%41.2%38.7%32.2%36.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%

    4GB4.1%4.8%9.7%8.5%16.4%12.4%15.9%14.7%16.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%

    8GB0.0%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.4%0.9%1.3%1.3%2.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

    YTD 51212.8%

    YTD 1GB39.0%

    YTD 2GB32.1%

    YTD 4GB11.6%

    YTD 8GB0.9%

    Sheet2

    TOP SELLING SKUs

    RankBrandModel DescriptionUnits

    1SANDISK2GB MICRO CRUZER USB 2.0 FLASH DRIVE1,849,272

    2SANDISK1GB MICRO CRUZER USB 2.0 FLASH DRIVE1,479,508

    3SANDISK4GB MICRO CRUZER USB 2.0 FLASH DRIVE871,460

    4PNY1GB ATTACHE FLASH DRIVE USB 2.0691,155

    5PNY2GB ATTACHE USB 2.0 FLASH DRIVE636,132

    6PNY1GB ATTACHE USB 2.0 FLASH DRIVE 3-PK202,188 x 3

    7MEMOREX1GB TRAVELDRIVE FLASH DRIVE USB 2.0478,967

    8KINGSTON1GB DATA TRAVELER USB 2.0 FLASH DRIVE472,433

    9MEMOREX32MB USB 2.0 FLASH MEMORY DRIVE397,652

    10DANE ELEC1GB USB 2.0 FLASH DRIVE370,353

  • Black Friday685202280.4/ ()2007 Black Friday35.7(2007)81540/

  • PIT

  • Thank you !!!

    3C 3C 3C 3C3C 3C 3C()3C3C3C