prefer p&c over life insurers on higher earnings …...valuation (~24.1% average upside...

GT

JA

Re

se

arc

h 国

泰君

安研

究

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort

See the last page for disclaimer of 41

Sector Report Insurance Sector Dayton Wang 王庆鲁

行业报告保险行业 +852 2509-5347

daytonwanggtjascomhk

18 May 2016

Prefer PampC Over Life Insurers on Higher Earnings Visibility 鉴于盈利可预见性高较寿险公司更偏好财产险公司

Given the continued low-interest rate environment and the expected

anaemic earnings growth for Chinarsquos insurance sector in 2016 we

would prefer PampC names (~PICC PampC (02328 HK TP~HKD 1725

ldquoBuyrdquo) over life insurers We expect the earnings growth for the sector to

be anaemic in 2016 given insurersrsquo net investment income growth is being

challenged by the persistently low bond yields in China This also creates

potential headwinds for life insurers whose insurance liabilities are

somewhat inversely related to the movement in Chinarsquos government bond

yields

In the composite pure life insurer space our analysis also suggests

that CPIC (02601 HK) New China Life (01336 HK) and CTIH (00966 HK)

have above par strength and are better positioned under current

operating conditions Our least favourable names are China Life (02628

HK) and PICC Group (01339 HK)

We maintain ldquoOutperformrdquo sector investment rating on accommodative

valuation (~241 average upside potential of covered insurers) In

addition we believe current market valuation is currently pricing in an

averaged assumed investment return of 37 in 2016 for our covered

insurers which is below the investment return in their respective embedded

value assumptions

鉴于中国持续的低利率环境以及 2016 年预期疲弱的行业盈利增长较寿险公司我们更偏

好财产险公司（～中国财险（02328 HK）目标价1725 港元ldquo买入rdquo）由于保

险公司的净投资收益增长前景正在受到国内债券收益率持续走低的挑战我们预期 2016

年盈利增长可能呈现疲弱同时这将对寿险公司不利因其部分保险准备金与中国国债收

益率成相反走势

在综合纯寿险标的中我们的分析显示中国太保（02601 HK）新华保险（01336 HK）

和中国太平（00966 HK）拥有高于上市同业平均的能力以应对当前的运营环境我们偏

好最低的标的为中国人寿（02628 HK）和人保集团（01339 HK）

出于对估值水平的考虑我们对中国保险行业维持ldquo跑赢大市rdquo的行业投资评级（～241

个股平均潜在升幅）另外我们相信市场价格隐含 2016 年覆盖公司平均 37投资收

益率的预期低于它们各自在内含价值中所作出的精算假设

Rating Outperform

Maintained

评级跑赢大市 (维持)

Sector Relative Price Performance

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

HK-listed China insurers

Hang Seng Index

Source Bloomberg Price as at May 17 2016

Sector Valuation

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)HK-listed China insurers 12M forward PB

Source Bloomberg Price as at May 17 2016

Company Name Ticker Price Rating 16F PBR 17F PBR 18F PBR 16F ROE 16F Yield

公司名称代码股价投资评级市净率市净率市净率净资产收益率股息率

(HK$) (x) (x) (x) () ()

China Life 02628 16800 Neutral 12 11 10 92 26

Ping An 02318 34000 Buy 13 11 10 140 18

CPIC 02601 25800 Accumulate 14 13 12 117 25

PICC Group 01339 3000 Neutral 08 07 06 123 03

PICC PampC 02328 13400 Buy 14 12 10 166 24

New China Life 01336 24650 Accumulate 11 09 07 124 12

CTIH 00966 14500 Accumulate 08 07 06 99 na

Weighted Average 市值加权平均

12 11 10 122 20

Source Bloomberg the Companies Guotai Junan International Prices as at May 17 2016

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See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 41

Table of Contents

Investment thesis rating changes and stock picks 3

1Q16 results wrap strong premium income growth but shareholdersrsquo profit declined sharply 4

Which life insurer is best positioned under current operating conditions 7

Life and PampC insurance sector near-term outlook 13

Sector valuation where are we now and what is in the price 15

China Life (02628 HK) 19

Ping An Insurance (02318 HK) 22

CPIC (02601 HK) 25

PICC Group (01339 HK) 28

PICC PampC (02328 HK) 31

New China Life (01336 HK) 34

CTIH (00966 HK) 37

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Investment thesis rating changes and stock picks

Given the continued low-interest rate environment and the expected anaemic earnings growth for Chinarsquos insurance

sector we would prefer PampC names (~PICC PampC (02328 HK TP~HKD 1725 ldquoBuyrdquo) over life insurers We expect the

earnings growth for the sector to be anaemic in 2016 given that insurersrsquo net investment income growth is being challenged by

the persistently low bond yields in China which also creates potential headwinds for life insurers whose insurance liabilities

are somewhat inversely related to the movement in Chinarsquos government bond yields For higher earnings visibility we would

refer the only pure PampC play of PICC PampC (02328 HK) over composite pure life insurers in our coverage universe

Our analysis also suggests CPIC (02601 HK) New China Life (01336 HK) and CTIH (00966 HK) have above par

strength and are better positioned under current operating conditions based on a number of evaluation metrics of risk

discount rates for the calculation of insurance liabilities the cost of recently launched life insurance policies normalised

investment performance product mix and insurance liabilities duration breakdown Within the composite pure life insurers

space our least favourable names are China Life (02628 HK) and PICC Group (01339 HK)

We maintain ldquoOutperformrdquo sector investment rating on accommodative valuation and see an average absolute

upside potential of 241 in our covered insurersrsquo stock price performance over a 6-12 month time horizon Sector

valuation has returned to the pre-bull market level in November 2014 Historical PEV now stands below 100x showing a fairly

long path to reach the post-conditions of the global financial crisis of a 7-year average of 173x During a 7-year observation

horizon sector valuation hit a trough in February this year recording a reading of 071x historical PEV In addition we believe

the market is currently pricing in an averaged assumed investment return of 37 in 2016 for our covered insurers which is

below the investment return in their respective embedded value assumptions

Table-1 GTJA International coverage on China insurance Company New TP

(in HKD) New

Rating Absolute

Upside Previous TP

(in HKD) Previous

Rating TP

Change Rating

Change

China Life (02628 HK) 1986 Neutral 182 2455 Accumulate (191) Ping An (02318 HK) 4740 Buy 394 4830 Buy (19) - CPIC (02601 HK) 3105 Accumulate 203 3600 Accumulate (138) - PICC Group (01339 HK) 326 Neutral 87 365 Accumulate (107) PICC PampC (02328 HK) 1725 Buy 287 1755 Buy (17) - New China Life (01336 HK) 3180 Accumulate 290 3255 Accumulate (23) - CTIH (0966 HK) 1800 Accumulate 241 2030 Accumulate (113) - Source Guotai Junan International

Figure-1 Hong Kong listed China insurersrsquo historical PB

05

08

10

13

15

18

20

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)(x) HK-listed China insurers historical PB (LHS)

Hang Seng H-financial index historical PB (RHS)

Source Bloomberg Guotai Junan International

Figure-2 Hong Kong listed China insurersrsquo 12M forward PB

05

08

10

13

15

18

20

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6




18 M

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1Q16 results wrap strong premium income growth but shareholdersrsquo profit declined sharply

Major listed insurers posted notable yoy decreases in 1Q16 shareholdersrsquo profit albeit solid capital positions are

suggested by quarter-end C-ROSS based solvency margin ratios Dragged by weaker investment performance and

increased insurance liabilities 1Q16 earnings for our covered insurers exhibited a downward growth trend The deteriorated

investment performance was primarily caused by the underperforming A-share market where the Shanghai Composite index

lost around 15 during the first quarter of the year resulting in significantly decreased net realised gains Moreover the

dropping bond yields added more pressure on the new insurersrsquo funds as we believe that there was a continuation of slowing

yoy growth in insurersrsquo net investment income during 1Q16 Compared to the decreased growth momentum exhibited in

investment income premium income experienced strong yoy growth with the exception of New China Life which recorded a

yoy decrease of 104 due to changes in product mix An important cost item namely insurance liabilities rose notably in

1Q16 not only on the grounds of an increase in premium income but more likely as a result of the adverse impacts stemming

from dropping China government bond yields which are referenced in determining the appropriate risk discount rates for

traditional life insurance products The other aspect worth noting is that our covered insurers have started to disclose

quarter-end solvency margin ratios under C-ROSS This new risk oriented solvency management framework aims to provide a

more precise and comprehensive account for insurersrsquo capital positions At a glance all covered life insurers (~including the

life insurance operating subsidiary under PICC Group and CTIH) posted a solvency margin ratio above 200 suggesting that

their respective capital positions were in good shape

Table-2 1Q16 selected operational and financial results for our covered insurers

(in RMB mn except per share and data) 1Q16 1Q15 Yoy

Premium income China Life 201648 153450 314

Ping An 155451 127033 224 CPIC 78217 62342 255 New China Life 46575 51997 (104) PICC Life 69365 57074 215 PICC PampC 81635 70418 159 PICC Health 18202 10908 669 Taiping Life 42174 na na Taiping General 4192 na na

Surrender China Life 45548 58680 (224)

Ping An na na na CPIC 4666 12013 (612) New China Life 21294 30677 (306)

Shareholders profit China Life 5251 12271 (572)

Ping An 20700 19964 37 CPIC 2199 4903 (551) New China Life 1994 3624 (450) PICC Life (1944) na na PICC PampC 4247 na na PICC Health (477) na na Taiping Life 1144 na na Taiping General 175 na na Taiping Pension (17) na na Taiping Re 28 na na

Comprehensive solvency margin ratio (C-ROSS based) China Life Ping An 2197 na na

CPIC 2620 na na New China Life 2793 na na PICC Life 2900 na na PICC PampC 1660 na na PICC Health 1740 na na Taiping Life 2500 na na Taiping General 2630 na na Taiping Pension 2470 na na Taiping Re 2800 na na

Source the Companies

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Table-3 Equity securities as a percentage of the outstanding balance of total investment assets

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Life 147 121 90 75 85 123 Ping An 97 115 94 98 123 162 CPIC 114 91 89 97 82 93 PICC Group 132 125 157 106 100 148 PICC PampC 121 115 156 116 134 91 New China Life 133 78 67 59 90 135 CTIH 93 51 38 47 78 144

Average 120 99 99 85 99 128


Table-4 Bond securities as a percentage of the outstanding balance of total investment assets 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Life 455 446 462 473 448 435 Ping An 592 570 521 520 469 479 CPIC 534 530 528 560 552 504 PICC Group 558 445 365 373 341 313 PICC PampC 611 516 448 441 365 312 New China Life na na na 447 379 361 CTIH 668 642 567 612 437 388

Average 570 525 482 489 427 399


Table-5 Non-standard investment instruments as a percentage of the outstanding balance of total investment assets

2014 2015

China Life 110 153 Ping An 174 159 CPIC 122 170 PICC Group 141 153 PICC PampC 74 87 New China Life 173 195 CTIH 240 289

Average 148 172


Table-6 Calculated comprehensive investment yield comparison

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Life 96 41 03 33 35 90 88 Ping An 74 37 13 48 40 90 86 CPIC 69 41 09 53 41 78 73 PICC Group

07 51 41 71 89

PICC PampC 93 19 09 49 34 95 104 New China Life 52 48 07 49 42 77 106 CTIH 103 68 01 37 47 93 113

Average 81 42 07 46 40 85 94


Table-7 Calculated investment yield comparison 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Life 58 52 35 28 49 54 64 Ping An 61 46 36 28 48 53 84 CPIC 59 52 34 31 48 58 68 PICC Group 00 00 32 37 45 50 62 PICC PampC 83 39 23 37 42 50 65 New China Life 47 43 38 32 47 54 71 CTIH 65 56 39 39 57 62 77

Average 53 41 34 33 48 54 70


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Figure-3 Cash (including term deposits) as a percentage of year-end balance of investment assets (~average for our covered insurers)

240

200

250

300

350

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source the Companies Guotai Junan International

Figure-4 Bond securities as a percentage of year-end balance of investment assets (~average for our covered insurers)

399

350

400

450

500

550

600

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15


Figure-5 Equity securities as a percentage of year-end balance of investment assets (~average for our covered insurers)

128

50

80

110

140

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15


Figure-6 Non-standard investment instruments as percentage of year-end balance of investment assets (~average for our covered insurers)

172

00

50

100

150

200

20

13

20

14

20

15


Figure-7 Yoy growth in reported interest income

(100)

100

300

500

700

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

China Life Ping An

CPIC PICC Group

PICC PampC New China Life

CTIH


Figure-8 Calculated average investment yield and comprehensive investment yield for our covered insurers

00

30

60

90

120

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Comprehensive investment yield

Investment yield


18 M

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Which life insurer is best positioned under current operating conditions

Our assessment suggests that the life insurance business of CPIC New China Life and CTIH have above par strength

and are comparatively better positioned under current operating conditions In the current low-interest rate environment

in China investorsrsquo key concern about Chinarsquos insurance sector centres around the ldquointerest rate spreadrdquo between the ldquocostrdquo of

insurance policies and the yields on investment assets We have frequently heard that investors are questioning the

sustainability and appropriateness of some insurersrsquo long-term investment yield assumptions given the dropping bond yields

Theoretically speaking dropping bond yields bring headwind for life insurersrsquo earnings growth outlook on the grounds of 1

lower expected rate of return on new insurersrsquo funds and 2 an expected increase in insurance liabilities for traditional life

insurance products (~whose risk discount rates are referenced to Chinarsquos government bond yields) We introduce a score

sheet for our covered insurers attempting to provide a comprehensive assessment on their risk-return profiles thus we could

determine their overall strength and positioning The assessment comprises a number of evaluation metrics of risk discount

rates for the calculation of insurance liability the cost of recently launched life insurance policies normalised investment

performance product mix and insurance liability duration breakdown

Table-8 Assessment of covered life insurersrsquo overall strength under current operating conditions

Risk discount rates for non-investment sensitive products

Cost of recently launched life insurance policies

Normalised investment performance

Life insurance product mix (~higher reliance on a particular type of product)

Insurance liability duration breakdown (~proportion of gt5 years liabilities)

Overall strength

China Life Medium Medium Underperform Universal Higher Par

Ping An Low Medium Outperform Universal Moderate Par

CPIC High High Outperform Participating Moderate Above par

PICC Group High Low In-line Traditional Lower Par

New China Life High High Outperform Participating Higher Above par

CTIH Low Low Outperform Participating Moderate Above par

Source Guotai Junan International

Metric 1 Risk discount rates for calculating insurance liabilities under the financial reporting framework

The risk discount rates for traditional life insurance products showed a downward trend in 2015 reflecting the

lowering government bond yields The calculation of insurance liabilities is essential to life insurers when presenting their

profit loss positions The complexity associated to it not only lies in the actuarial analysis itself but also the choice of

calculation method depending on the end user Strictly speaking insurance liabilities can be calculated under statutory

solvency tax and financial reporting frameworks The former three frameworks normally comprise of unified pre-determined

assumptions that are set by CIRC with a greater degree of prudence than the last When insurers are preparing the financial

statements the assumptions particularly for the risk discount rates are set according to ldquobest-estimaterdquo principles reflecting

their respective business experiences Our covered insurers normally disclose a range of risk discount rates that they apply

during the respective reporting period For policies whose future benefits are not dependent on investment performances

typically traditional life insurance products their risk discount rates are referenced to a 750-day moving average of Chinarsquos

long-duration government bond yields According to company disclosures in 2015 while the risk discount rates for investment

featured policies remained largely unchanged the risk discount rates for traditional life insurance products however dropped

5-40 bps on a yoy basis

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Table-9 Risk discount rates applied by the covered insurers

Company 2015 2014 2013

low high low high low high

China Life - future benefit affected by investment yield 480 500 480 500 480 500

- future benefit not affected by investment yield 342 578 352 596 347 574 Ping An

- future benefit affected by investment yield 475 550 475 550 475 550 - future benefit not affected by investment yield 355 529 395 550 369 543 CPIC

- future benefit affected by investment yield 510 520 500 520 490 520 - future benefit not affected by investment yield 347 596 357 628 357 642 PICC Life

- future benefit affected by investment yield 500 550 500 550 500 550 - future benefit not affected by investment yield 337 606 367 638 357 642 New China Life

- future benefit affected by investment yield 475 523 475 523 475 523 - future benefit not affected by investment yield 357 593 367 611 367 594 Taiping Life 312 548 317 561 307 534 - future benefit affected by investment yield

- future benefit not affected by investment yield Source the Companies

Note ^ = Taiping Life did not separate in the annual reports

Figure-9 China 10-year government bond yields and 750-day moving average

25

30

35

40

45

50

May

-07

Nov-0

7

May

-08

Nov-0

8

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

May

-13

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

10 year governmnet bond yield

750-day moving average

Source China Bond

Figure-10 Chinarsquos government bond yields

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ma

y-1

0

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

Ma

y-1

6

()1 year 5 year 10 year

Source China Bond

Metric 2 Gauging the ldquocostrdquo of insurance policies

The ldquocostrdquo of insurance policies in our view could be characterised by the disclosed guaranteed minimum and

monthly settlement interest rates on selected universal life insurance products which ranges from 430 to 580

pa for the recently launched products by the covered insurers Due to the complexity of the pricing process of an

insurance policy the true ldquocostrdquo of that policy in a numerical form is less directly observable than the investment yields

achieved on investment instruments such as bond securities Considering the most important profit driver for Chinarsquos insurers

is the spread income ie the difference between actual versus assumed investment yield on insurersrsquo funds we attempt to

gauge the funding cost by observing the monthly settlement interest rates on universal life insurance products Our sample

products were selected based on their recent CIRC registration dates and whether they were the key product during the

jumpstart season

Table-10 Average monthly settlement interest rate for selected universal life insurance products issued by our covered insurers Company CIRC

registration date Average monthly settlement

interest rate ( pa) since launch

China Life Dec-14 466 Ping An Life Dec-14 500 CPIC Life Aug-15 575 PICC Life May-15 430 New China Life Jun-15 580 Taiping Life Jun-15 441 Source the Companies CIRC

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Figure-11 Reported monthly settlement interest rate for a universal life insurance product issued by China Life

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

Figure-12 Reported monthly settlement interest rate for a universal life insurance product issued by Taiping Life

42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

Metric 3 Estimation of net investment yield under normalised investment return assumptions

Under unified normalised investment return assumptions our analysis shows that current investment mix for the

covered insurers will produce an estimated net investment yield ranging between 317 and 361 We have

conducted a comprehensive comparison of investment asset mix for the covered insurers and have applied unified normalised

investment return assumptions in order to determine the investment management ability based on static results In this

assessment Ping An CPIC New China Life and CTIHrsquos estimated net investment yield could be regarded as outperforming

whereas China Life and PICC Life posted underperforming results

Table-11 Covered insurersrsquo outstanding investment assets as at December 31 2015

(in RMB mn except for CTIH) China Life Ping An CPIC PICC Group PICC PampC New China Life CTIH

Cash 76096 80103 24191 49884 22828 13904 34788 Term deposits 562622 193248 154398 148097 98663 127679 34376 Bond securities 996236 829245 430633 232147 107404 278534 150285

Government bonds 105754 236973 69849 12942 10088 45887 32509 Financial bonds 277185 322325 95182 107578 40422 53111 60794 Company Enterprise bonds 441463 269947 265602 111627 56894 104299 56981 Other bonds 171834 na na na na 75237 na

Equity securities 281001 192596 79601 100622 60000 84721 38817 Shares 111516 124254 33645 22867 31256 32450 26112 Investment funds 169485 68342 45956 77755 28744 52271 12704

Non-standard instruments 348944 411077 159291 178316 47350 95722 86460 Equity type 130622 87762 43678 77961 17298 25975 14944

Preferred shares 18712 43732 2217 9041 5654 1049 na Trust products amp WMPs 50053 24338 25715 15612 2800 13752 14944 Other 61857 19692 15746 53308 8844 11174 na

Debt type 218322 323315 115613 100355 30052 69747 71516 Debt schemes amp AM plans 67569 136414 53025 99655 26662 2668 60477 Trust products amp WMPs 59461 117970 25240 na 2850 67079 11039 Other 91292 68931 37348 700 540 na na

Investment properties 1237 25350 6344 10682 4783 2177 12375 Other 21503 na na 23073 2997 35128 15567 Total investment assets 2287639 1731619 854458 742821 344025 637865 372667 Source the Companies Guotai Junan International

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Table-12 Covered insurersrsquo investment asset mix as at December 31 2015

China Life Ping An CPIC PICC Group PICC PampC New China Life CTIH

Cash 33 46 28 67 66 22 93 Term deposits 246 112 181 199 287 200 92 Bond securities

Government bonds 46 137 82 17 29 72 87 Financial bonds 121 186 111 145 117 83 163 Company Enterprise bonds 193 156 311 150 165 164 153 Other bonds 75 00 00 00 00 118 00

Equity securities Shares 49 72 39 31 91 51 70

Investment funds 74 39 54 105 84 82 34 Non-standard instruments

Equity type Preferred shares 08 25 03 12 16 02 00

Trust products amp WMPs 22 14 30 21 08 22 40 Other 27 11 18 72 26 18 00

Debt type Debt schemes amp AM plans 30 79 62 134 78 04 162


Investment properties 01 15 07 14 14 03 33 Other 09 00 00 31 09 55 42 Total investment assets 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 Source the Companies Guotai Junan International

Table-13 Assumed normalised investment return on each investment instrument Investment instrument Normalised investment yield Remarks

Cash 030 RMB current account deposits rate Term deposits 316 5yr benchmark deposits rate+ 15 Bond securities

Government bonds 280 10yr government bond generic YTM Financial bonds 325 10yr financial bond generic YTM Company Enterprise bonds 380 10yr corporate bond generic YTM Other bonds 280 10yr government bond generic YTM

Equity securities Shares 180 CSI300 Index 1-yr forward dividend yield

Investment funds 180 CSI300 Index 1-yr forward dividend yield Non-standard instruments

Equity type Preferred shares 550 Average notional dividend yield on commercial banks preferred shares

Trust products amp WMPs 800 Generic expected yield (3-5 yr equity type trust products) Other 280 10yr government bond generic YTM

Debt type Debt schemes amp AM plans 600 Gtja International estimates

Trust products amp WMPs 780 Generic expected yield (3-5 yr non-equity type trust products) Other 280 10yr government bond generic YTM

Investment properties 450 Estimated sector rental yield Other 175 Benchmark 1yr deposits rate Source the Companies Guotai Junan International

Figure-13 Calculated net investment yield under normalised investment return assumptions

328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40

China Life Ping An CPIC PICC Grp PICC PampC New China Life CTIH


18 M

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Metric 4 Product mix

China Life and Ping An has comparatively higher proportion of universal life insurance products in the product mix

with an estimated percentage of 104 and 285 in 2015 respectively Selling universal life insurance products is the

usual tactic for volume play for Chinarsquos insurers especially during the jumpstart season in the first quarter of the year Although

traditional life insurance products have gained some traction after its pricing reform in 2013 universal life insurance products

remain a key important product type for the yield-starved customers We continue to employ our ldquoquasi-premiumsrdquo terminology

for the measurement of market share breakdown by product types Our analysis shows that on the sector front premiums

from universal life insurance products continued to account for around 32 in the total quasi-premiums in 2015 and this

percentage rose to around 41 in 1Q16 Even on a yoy comparison the percentage rose around 18 ppts suggesting heavier

reliance on investment oriented products for cash flow generation As for our covered insurers a few of them had sold

universal life insurance products as riders attached to the basic policy for the purpose of yield enhancement during this yearrsquos

jumpstart season

Table-14 Covered insurersrsquo key products during 2016 jumpstart season Company Product

name Category Reg

Date Key benefits

Key reference interest

Remarks

China Life 国寿鑫账户两全保险 (万能型) (钻石版) Universal Oct-15 - Annual survival benefits (10 of the account value) - Guaranteed minimum interest rate 25 pa

Basic policy

国寿鑫福年年养老年金 Annuity Oct-15 - Annuity (15 of the sum insured) na Rider

国寿鑫福年年年金保险 Annuity Oct-15 - Annuity (15 of the sum insured) payable at age of 60 na Rider

Ping An Life 平安尊宏人生两全保险（分红型） Participating Sep-15 - Annual survival benefits (18 (prior to 60th year) - 20 (after 60th year) of the sum insured) - Participating features 1) accumulate interests 2) deduction of the premiums and 3) purchase of other policies

na Basic policy

平安附加聚财宝两全保险（万能型2015） Universal Jul-15 - Withdraw of survival benefits after 3rd year - Guaranteed minimum interest rate 175 pa

Rider

CPIC 幸福相伴（尊享版）两全保险 Traditional Jul-15 - Annual survival benefits (300 of the sum insured one-off at 3rd year)

na Basic policy

New China Life 福享一生终身年金保险（分红型） Participating Nov-13 - Annual survival benefits (20 of the total of the sum insured and accumulated dividend) - Participating features 1) non-cash bonus increase the sum insured

na Basic policy

PICC Life 人保寿险鑫享生活两全保险（分红型） Participating Nov-15 - Annual survival benefits (30 of the sum insured starting year 3) - Participating features 1) cash dividend and 2) reinvest in the rider

na Basic policy

人保寿险附加品质生活年金保险（万能型） Universal May-15 - Annuity payable at age of 50 - Guaranteed minimum interest rate 25 pa

Rider

Taiping Life 太平畅享世家两全保险（分红型） Participating Nov-15 - Annual survival benefits (30 of the total of the sum insured and accumulated dividend starting 3rd year) - Participating features 1) non-cash bonus increase the sum insured

na Basic policy

Source the Companies CIRC Guotai Junan International

Table-15 ldquoCostrdquo of capital for different types of life insurance companies comparison

Financial structure in essence Cost of capital

Traditional 35 pricing interest rate Fixed Participating 25 - 35 pricing interest rate + 70 of distributable income for policyholders Floating higher than traditional Universal Embed a guarantee minimum rate for policyholders Floating higher than traditional Investment-linked Insurers charge investment management fees mainly Fee income Source Guotai Junan International

Table-16 Policyholdersrsquo deposits as a of quasi-premiums in 2015

(in RMB bn) Reported premium income (a)

Policyholders deposits (b)

Deposits as a of quasi-premiums (c) = (b) (a+b)

China Life 3641 423 104 Ping An Life 2084 902 302 CPIC Life 1119 66 56 New China Life 1086 28 25 PICC Life 894 87 89 Taiping Life 799 37 44

Subtotal 6665 6104 478 Sector total 16288 7647 319 Source the Companies CIRC

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Table-17 Policyholdersrsquo deposits as a of quasi-premiums in 1Q15












Table-19 Quasi-premiums breakdown by product type for our covered insurers (in RMB mn) China Life^ Ping An CPIC New China Life PICC Life Taiping Life

Traditional 109220 20377 23778 44215 74512 2305 Participating 198949 124513 77204 49988 11495 53698 Universal 42339 85567 6626 2790 8792 3722 Health amp accident 55802 63234 7567 17617 19550 6155 Other 0 6123 0 0 0 20458

Adjusted total 406310 299814 115175 114610 114349 86338 Source the Companies Guotai Junan International Note ^= Guotai Junan International estimates

Figure-14 Covered insurersrsquo product mix in 2015 (adjusted to incorporate policyholder deposits)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

China Life^ Ping An Life CPIC Life New China Life PICC Life Taiping Life

Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional


Note ^ = Guotai Junan International estimates

Metric 5 Duration analysis of insurersrsquo insurance and investment contract liabilities

A considerable portion of our insurersrsquo insurance and investment contract liabilities had a duration of over 5 years

Based on the covered insurersrsquo 2015 annual disclosures we find that their insurance and investment contract liabilities on an

aggregate level were fairly long-dated 73 of the insurance and investment contract liabilities on average had a duration of

over 5 years We believe there is a growing trend for major listed life insurers to stretch their insurance and investment

contract liabilities and the motivation for which in our view may stem from the following 1 new products tend to have a longer

product duration as the regulator promotes the sales of long-duration and protection oriented products and 2 life insurersrsquo

own initiative in order to battle the low-interest rate environment At a closer look at our covered insurers due to the

differences in business scope pure life insurers such as China Life and New China Life most of their insurance and durations

of investment contract liabilities were over 5 years whereas composite insurance companies like the rest (~Ping An CPIC

PICC Group and CTIH) had the proportion of longer duration liabilities diluted to some extent because of the inclusion of PampC

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business

Figure-15 Covered insurersrsquo insurance and investment contract liabilities duration breakdown (December 31 2015)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

China Life Ping An CPIC PICC Group New China Life CTIH

Over 5 years 1-5 years Within 1 year


Life and PampC insurance sector near-term outlook

We expect the growth trajectory for Chinarsquos life insurance sector premium income to be flattened in 2H16 on the

grounds of tightening on the sales of short-duration universal life insurance products and increasing divergence in

product distribution strategies among life insurers Despite the high base in 2015 Chinarsquos life insurance sector ytd

premium income still managed to deliver an astonishing yoy gain of 524 in 1Q16 which is mainly attributed to the

performance achieved during this yearrsquos jumpstart season The competitive landscape of the sector however remained fairly

concentrated given the usual ldquoBig 4rdquo life insurers still taking up a combined market share of approximately 481 Chinese

commercial banks-backed insurers and some unlisted ones experienced rapid growth in premium income by utilising their

respective advantages in distribution channels and product offerings Looking ahead we think the growth trajectory in 2H16 is

expected to be flattened to some extent mainly on the back of CIRCrsquos tightening on the sales of short-duration universal life

insurance products and increasing divergence in product distribution strategies among life insurers (Please refer to our

previous comment CIRC Tightens the Sale of Short Medium Duration High Cash Value Life Insurance Products We Expect

Our Covered Insurers to Have Moderate Exposure)

Figure-16 Yoy growth in Chinarsquos insurance sector premium income

(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC

Figure-17 Competitive landscape of Chinarsquos life insurance sector

00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

China Life CPIC Life

Ping An Life New China Life

Source CIRC

We believe that the former will have a more adverse impact on the premium income growth outlook for new comers in the

sector with less diversified product portfolios and the latter is concluded based on our observation of the product shifts for

some of our covered life insurers We see a growing trend for the listed life insurers to employ a differentiated product

distribution strategy which was demonstrated by New China Lifersquos unusual 104 yoy decline in premium income during the

jumpstart season Nevertheless we still see that the sector premium income posted a strong yoy growth rate of around 35 in

2016

18 M

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The continuation of the commercial auto insurance pricing reform in China is expected to further weigh on generic

pricing rates but we believe the underwriting profit margin will be further improved Recently released operating data

by the CIRC reaffirmed our views on the pricing reform of slower revenue growth but it comes with improved margins CIRC

said on May 11 that the combined ratio for auto insurance in the pilot regions was 94 in 1Q16 with a yoy increase of 113 in

premium income compared to 121 nationwide The reform kicked off last June in six pilot regions and it expanded to twelve

in January By the end of June the number of pilot regions will be increased to eighteen At this stage CIRC sees that the

underwriting risks have not been fully reflected in the pricing yet implying that the degree of insurersrsquo pricing autonomy still

has room to grow In addition we see less room for fiercer competition on the expense side given potential capital constraints

for PampC insurers

Figure-18 Yoy growth in 1Q16 auto insurance premium income

121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125

Nationwide 1st batch of

pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC

Figure-19 Comparison of sector wide auto insurance combined ratio

942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970

1st batch of pilot regions 2nd batch of pilot regions

1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC

Given Chinarsquos government bond yields are expected to remain low and with the full implementation of C-ROSS we

expect that insurersrsquo funds will continue to favour non-standard investment instruments among which we believe

debt schemes are likely to be the type with highest growth potential In short our viewpoint is that Chinarsquos government

bond yields are expected to hover around current low levels on the back of 1 Chinarsquos weak macroeconomic growth outlook

Albeit our macro team does not foresee a hard landing scenario for Chinarsquos economy current macro readings imply the lack of

upward catalysts which favours risk-free assets such as sovereign bonds together with the tamed inflation expectation and th

expected decelerating credit growth in 2H16 we see Chinarsquos government bond yields are expected to be at low levels 2

Chinarsquos expansionary fiscal policy may induce a greater supply of sovereign bonds We see the ongoing supply-side reforms

may also be achieved by the introduction of expansionary fiscal policies which is likely to result in higher deficits and in turn

will translate into a greater supply of sovereign bonds suppressing the bond yields Putting the dropping bond yields into

context we see insurersrsquo net investment yields on bond securities may have more downside potential The rational reaction for

insurers will be investing more funds in higher yield investment instruments Among the non-standard investment instruments

of commercial bank WMP debt schemes AM plans and trust products We believe debt schemes could be the ldquosafest betrdquo for

insurers based on 1 less capital consumption under C-ROSS and 2 the supply of certain beneficiary rights related trust

products may decrease because of the release of Document 82 by CBRC in May requiring Chinese commercial banks to

properly conduct provisioning for moving certain credit assets out of their balance sheets The former argument is more

apparent as under C-ROSS quantifiable market risk category each investment instrument has been assigned to a minimum

capital requirement factor (~less 10) the higher the factor the more capital consuming that instrument is As the table below

shows debt schemes have lower risk factors than that of for trust products and AM plans Moreover we are optimistic about

the general supply for debt schemes since the underlying investments are normally large government-led infrastructure

projects We think the aforementioned expansionary fiscal policy will bring sizable investments in this field accommodating

insurer fund investment appetite

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Figure-20 Chinarsquos government bond yields and monthly CPI yoy

(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)

Monthly CPI yoy (RHS)

Source China Bond CEIC

Figure-21 Chinarsquos government bond yields and change in theoretical bond demand

(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)

Chg in theoretical demand for

bonds (RHS)

Source China Bond Guotai Junan International

Table-20 Comparison of minimum capital risk factor under C-ROSS for different investment instruments Instrument Minimum capital risk factor

Equity type trust products 031 Asset-management plans

comprehensive 020 equity type 025 alternative 040

Infrastructure debt schemes 012 Source CIRC

Sector valuation where are we now and what is in the price

Sector valuation has been depressed following the abrupt sell-off at the beginning of the year and currently it points

to the pre-bull market levels seen in November 2014 Sector valuation has returned to the pre-bull market levels in

November 2014 Historical PEV now stands below 100x and it shows a fairly long journey to reach the post global financial

crisis level of the 7-year average of 173x During a 7-year observation horizon sector valuation hit a trough in February this

year recording a reading of 071x historical PEV Regarding the historical PEV annual range it has quite narrow and is not

dispersed even when compared to 2012 implying a lack of positive price catalysts and discouraging investment sentiments

Figure-22 Hong Kong listed Chinese insurance companies sector valuation (historical PEV)

173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)


Figure-23 Hong Kong listed Chinese insurance companies historical PEV annual range

204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg


Historical stock prices of Hong Kong listed Chinese insurance companies have a certain degree of correlation with

Chinese government bond yields We believe that the Chinese government bond yields have a certain degree of

predictability power on the stock prices of our covered insurers from a trading perspective On a fundamental account a higher

bond yield may imply a higher net investment yield for new insurersrsquo funds investing in bond securities Moreover as investing

in insurance companies is often a form of macro play rising government bond yields may suggest improving macroeconomic

conditions and rising risk appetites in the market (~ selling risk free assets and buying risk assets) which could help explaining

the somewhat positive correlation

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Figure-24 China Lifersquos monthly stock price vs Chinarsquos government bond yields

25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)China Life (LHS)

10-year govt bond yield (RHS)


Figure-25 Ping Anrsquos monthly stock price vs Chinarsquos government bond yields

25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)Ping An (LHS)



Figure-26 CPICrsquos monthly stock price vs Chinarsquos government bond yields

25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)



Figure-27 PICC Grouprsquos monthly stock price vs Chinarsquos government bond yields

25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)PICC Group (LHS)



Figure-28 PICC PampCrsquos monthly stock price vs Chinarsquos government bond yields

25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)PICC PampC (LHS)



Figure-29 New China Lifersquos monthly stock price vs Chinarsquos government bond yields

25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

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Figure-30 CTIHrsquos monthly stock price vs Chinarsquos government bond yield

25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)



We believe the market is currently pricing in an averaged assumed investment return of 37 in 2016 for our covered

insurers which is below the investment return in their respective embedded value assumptions We utilise EV

sensitivity tables from each covered insurer to derive this implied market price expectation regarding 2016 investment return

Our analysis shows that the market seems particularly pessimistic about this yearrsquos investment performance for New China

Life which it implies a reduction of 220 bps from the baseline of 50

Table-21 Market price implied expectation regarding future investment return Company China Life Ping An CPIC New China Life CTIH Average historical PEV in May 098 x 101 x 111 x 100 x 046 x Scenario change in assumed investment return Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)

Down 240bps 1461 2907 1997 2327 1229 Down 230bps 1498 2939 2041 2396 1241 Down 220bps 1535 2971 2084 2465 1252 Down 210bps 1571 3004 2127 2534 1264 Down 200bps 1608 3036 2170 2604 1275 Down 190bps 1645 3068 2214 2673 1287 Down 180bps 1681 3100 2257 2742 1298 Down 170bps 1718 3133 2300 2811 1310 Down 160bps 1754 3165 2343 2881 1321 Down 150bps 1791 3197 2386 2950 1332 Down 140bps 1828 3229 2430 3019 1344 Down 130bps 1864 3261 2473 3089 1355 Down 120bps 1901 3294 2516 3158 1367 Down 110bps 1938 3326 2559 3227 1378 Down 100bps 1974 3358 2602 3296 1390 Down 90bps 2011 3390 2646 3366 1401 Down 80bps 2047 3422 2689 3435 1413 Down 70bps 2084 3455 2732 3504 1424 Down 60bps 2121 3487 2775 3573 1436 Down 50bps 2157 3519 2818 3643 1447 Down 40bps 2194 3551 2862 3712 1459 Down 30bps 2231 3584 2905 3781 1470 Down 20bps 2267 3616 2948 3850 1482 Down 10bps 2304 3648 2991 3920 1493 Base EV 2340 3680 3035 3989 1505 Source Guotai Junan International

Table-22 Comparison of assumed investment return for our covered insurers Company 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

China Life 51 52 53 54 Ping An 48 50 53 55 CPIC 52 52 52 52 PICC Group 55 55 55 55 New China Life^ 50 51 53 55 CTIH 55 55 55 55 Source the Companies Note ^ = for participating products only

18 M

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Peers Comparison Company Stock Code Currency Last price PE (fiscal year) PB (fiscal year) ROE() DY() Market Cap

(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn

HK - Listed companies China Life Insurance Co-H 2628 HK HKD 1680

112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466

Ping An Insurance Group Co-H 2318 HK HKD 3400

92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223

Aia Group Ltd 1299 HK HKD 4385

257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368

Prudential Plc 2378 HK HKD 14480

121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536

Manulife Financial Corp 945 HK HKD 10930

170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556

China Pacific Insurance Gr-H 2601 HK HKD 2580

107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314

PeopleS Insurance Co Grou-H 1339 HK HKD 300

53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272

Picc Property amp Casualty-H 2328 HK HKD 1340

74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702

New China Life Insurance C-H 1336 HK HKD 2465

72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968

China Taiping Insurance Hold 966 HK HKD 1450

78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113

China Reinsurance Group Co-H 1508 HK HKD 174

71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24

China - Listed companies China Life Insurance Co-A 601628 CH CNY 2073

170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470

China Pacific Insurance Gr-A 601601 CH CNY 2644

135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316

Ping An Insurance Group Co-A 601318 CH CNY 3151

106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227

New China Life Insurance C-A 601336 CH CNY 3970

144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19

Other APAC - Listed companies Tokio Marine Holdings Inc 8766 JT JPY 368500

114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665

MsampAd Insurance Group Holdin 8725 JT JPY 293600

133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660

Dai-Ichi Life Insurance 8750 JT JPY 130450

104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663

Samsung Life Insurance Co Lt 032830 KS KRW 10200000

159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713

Samsung Fire amp Marine Ins 000810 KS KRW 28800000

157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099

Hanwha Life Insurance Co Ltd 088350 KS KRW 647000

98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108

Dongbu Insurance Co Ltd 005830 KS KRW 7050000

107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961

Cathay Financial Holding Co 2882 TT TWD 3485

76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105

Shin Kong Financial Holding 2888 TT TWD 614

108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933

Great Eastern Holdings Ltd GE SP SGD 2103

127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438

Qbe Insurance Group Ltd QBE AU AUD 1192

178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887

Amp Ltd AMP AU AUD 547

164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31

USA - Listed companies American International Group AIG US USD 5528

327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171

Metlife Inc MET US USD 4340

94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118

Prudential Financial Inc PRU US USD 7595

61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576

Travelers Cos IncThe TRV US USD 11224

102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743

Marsh amp Mclennan Cos MMC US USD 6445

214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759

Allstate Corp ALL US USD 6755

132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294

Aflac Inc AFL US USD 6902

117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792

Aon Plc AON US USD 10618

215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346

Chubb Ltd CB US USD 12529

144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717

Hartford Financial Svcs Grp HIG US USD 4430

109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271

Loews Corp L US USD 3983

553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813

Progressive Corp PGR US USD 3304

153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517

Principal Financial Group PFG US USD 4216

103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856

Lincoln National Corp LNC US USD 4314

94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24

Europe - Listed companies Axa Sa CS FP EUR 2094

96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790

Prudential Plc PRU LN GBp 129950

129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465

Zurich Insurance Group Ag ZURN VX CHF 23650

199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324

Swiss Re Ag SREN VX CHF 8675

67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108

Legal amp General Group Plc LGEN LN GBp 22020

121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116

Old Mutual Plc OML LN GBp 16890

133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488

Aviva Plc AV LN GBp 42310

187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809

Standard Life Plc SL LN GBp 32220

46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54

Source Bloomberg Guotai Junan International Price as at May 17 2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Company Report China Life (02628 HK) Dayton Wang 王庆鲁

公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

China Life (02628 HK)

Downgrade on Future Investment Performance Pressure

投资表现压力引致评级下调

1Q16 EPS was down 58 yoy on reduced investment income and

increased claims amp expenses Investment income (ex FV gains) was

down 224 yoy Net the investment yield was 500 pa but the

comprehensive investment yield was merely 369 pa on poor A-share

performance during the period

We see the Companyrsquos earnings growth to be anaemic on possible

weakened investment performance and rising insurance reserve

charges We see China Lifersquos investment asset allocation is in a worse

position compared to listed peers and we expect that the potential rise in

the ldquocostrdquo of new policies may weigh on the long-term investment return

assumption in the EV We lower 2016F EPS by 163 on a downward

adjustment in full-year investment income

We downgrade the investment rating to ldquoNeutralrdquo on future

investment performance pressure with a trimmed target price of HKD

1986 per share We value China Life by applying NBV multiple based

valuation technique with a 2016F NBV multiple of 59x and an assumed

COE of 105 Key downside risk includes 1 investment performance

pressure on new insurer funds and 2 unexpected A-share market

deterioration

2016 年 1 季度每股盈利因投资收益的减少和保险赔付及开支的增加而同比下滑 58

投资收益（不含公允价值变动）同比下跌 224期末年化净投资收益率为 500但

综合收益率年化仅为 369主要原因是 A 股市场的不景气所致

由于可能出现的不佳投资表现和保险准备金的上升我们预期公司未来盈利增长较为疲

弱我们认为中国人寿目前的资产配置状态不及上市同业并且我们预期上升的新单ldquo成

本rdquo将对公司精算假设中长期投资收益率构成一定压力基于对全年投资收益的预测下

调我们将公司 2016 财年的每股盈利下调 163

由于投资表现压力我们将公司的投资评级下调至ldquo中性rdquo并削减目标价至每股 1986

港元我们运用新业务价值乘数的估值方法2016 财年新业务价值乘数为 59 倍并假设

股本成本为 105股价主要下行风险为1 新获取保险资金的投资表现压力和 2 A

股市场的超预期恶化

Rating Neutral Downgraded

评级中性 (下调)

6-18m TP 目标价 HK$1986 Revised from 原目标价 HK$2455

Share price 股价 HK$16800

Stock performance 股价表现

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200

May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16

of return

HSI China Life-H

Change in Share Price 股价变动

1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)

Rel to HS index 相对恒指变动

(93) (77) (269)

Avg share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元）

178 181 256

Source Bloomberg Guotai Junan Internat ional

Year End 年结

Turnover 收入

Net Profit 股东净利

EPS 每股净利

EPS 每股净利变动

PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率

ROE 净资产收益率

1231 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) () (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) () ()

2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 282647 Major shareholder 大股东 China Life (Group) 684

Market cap (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 4748470 Free float () 自由流通比率 () 316

3 month average vol 3 个月平均成交股数 (lsquo000) 541761 P16 EV 16 年 PEV (基于收盘价) (x) 06

52 Weeks highlow (HK$) 52 周高低 40200 16100 FY16 Est NAV (HK$) FY16 每股估值 (港元) 352

Source the Company Guotai Junan International

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Figure-31 China Life monthly premium income

10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC

Figure-32 China Life monthly ytd premium income yoy

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC

Table-23 Earnings revision of China Life (in RMB mn except per share data) New Old Change

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

Gross written premiums 425846 474818 515178

425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)

Net premiums earned 424133 473677 514012

424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00

Investment income 104401 107328 115542

105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01

Insurance benefits and claims expenses (375856) (418760) (456493)

(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)


Table-24 NBV multiple based valuation of China Life Key items

2016F

Embedded value (EV) A 623372 1Y New business value (NBV) B 34016 NBV multiple C 59 x Total NBV D= BC 201966 Appraisal value E = A+D 825339

Shares in issue (mn)

28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203

Appraisal value per share (HK$)

3518 Source Guotai Junan International

Figure-33 China Life historical PB

203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


Figure-34 China Life 12M forward PB

203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Figure-35 China Life historical PEV trading range

222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg


Price as at May 17 2016

Figure-36 China Life historical PEV

186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16

(x) P EV Avg since 2009

+ 1 SD - 1 SD



Financial Statements and Key Ratios Income Statement

Financial Ratios (in RMB mn except and per share data)

Year end Dec (in RMB mn) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Gross written premiums 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178

Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178

Change in unearned premium reserves (390) (692) (810) (903) (980)

GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85

Net premiums earned 330105 362301 424133 472774 513032

FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319

Investment income 93548 97582 104401 107328 115542

FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81

Net realised gains and FV gains 12928 42506 (1565) 2066 674

Investments Other income 4185 5060 5414 5565 5991

Investment income yoy 130 43 70 28 77

Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239

Investment assets yoy 136 89 60 63 66

Insurance benefits and claims expenses (342118) (387974) (406919) (453644) (494438)

Embedded value

Costs and other expenses (62157) (75518) (86369) (92393) (97157)

Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990

Total benefits claims and expenses (404275) (463492) (493288) (546038) (591595)

EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136

Share of profit of associates 3911 1974 2071 2286 2471

New business value 23253 31528 34016 38050 41670

Profit before income tax 40402 45931 41165 43982 46115

NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)

New business margin (FYP) 199 225 230 232 235

Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587

New business margin (APE) 430 414 432 469 470

ndash equity holders of the Company 32211 34699 30445 32529 34107

Capital position

ndash non-controlling interests 303 488 428 457 480

Shareholders equity yoy 290 135 44 57 58

Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207

Solvency margin ratio 2945 3301 3276 3204 3062

Diluted EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207

Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011

Bonds securities 940619 996236 1047791 1108755 1173378

NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474

Equity securities 178553 281001 308031 342941 379218

EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207

Other investment assets 232583 350181 384980 414445 452805

BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315

Total investment assets 2100870 2287639 2425442 2578501 2747957

DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456

Dividend payout ratio 351 344 340 340 340

Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics

Insurance contracts liabilities 1603446 1715985 1819081 1933876 2060968

Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116

Investment contracts liabilities 72275 84106 92167 97983 104422

Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10

Interest-bearing payables 70612 70637 70637 70632 70627

Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05

Other liabilities 212903 251373 342525 369112 398659

Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95

Total liabilities 1959236 2122101 2324410 2471603 2634676

TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137

Shareholders equity 284121 322492 336568 355765 376338

TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12

Non-controlling interests 3210 3722 3903 4147 4400

TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

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ort


Company Report Ping An Insurance (02318 HK) Dayton Wang 王庆鲁

公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

Ping An Insurance (02318 HK)

ldquoBuyrdquo on Cross-selling Synergies and Valuation 基于交叉销售协同效应和估值水平维持ldquo买入rdquo

1Q16 results were driven by life insurance performance The

Companyrsquos strong growth in 1Q16 NBV was unaffected by the muted

performance in the A-share market (~SHCOMP Index down 15 during

1Q16) 1Q PampC premium income was RMB 436 billion with auto insurance

accounting for 856 with an overall combined ratio of 943

The Company continue to have a comparatively higher proportion of

universal life insurance products in the product mix but we expect

that the investment asset mix could provide some cushioning for

overall NBM Our peer companies investment performance evaluation

under normalised investment returns suggests Ping An could be an

outperformer based on current investment mix

We maintain an investment rating of ldquoBuyrdquo on the Companyrsquos

cross-selling synergies and accommodative valuation Our SOTP

based valuation technique yields an appraisal value of HKD 7338 per

share with a 2016F NBV multiple of 107x and an assumed COE of 112

for the Companyrsquos life insurance business

2016 年 1 季度业绩主要由寿险业务所推动公司期末新业务价值的增长并未受到 A 股

市场表现的影响（～上证综指 1 季度下跌 15）2016 年 1 季度财产险保费收入为人

民币 436 亿元其中车险占比 856全业务综合成本率为 943

万能险产品在公司的产品组合中占比仍然较高但我们认为公司的资产配置将为整体新

业务价值率提供一些缓冲我们对于同业上市的投资表现分析显示公司拥有高于行业平

均水平的表现

考虑到公司的交叉销售协同效应和估值水平我们维持对公司ldquo买入rdquo的投资评级我

们运用分部加总估值方法并得出每股 7338 港元的评估价值我们给予寿险业务 107

倍的 2016 财年新业务价值乘数并假设股本成本为 112

Rating Buy

Maintained

评级买入 (维持)




(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H

Change in Share Price

股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)

Avg share price(HK$)

平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 182802 Major shareholder 大股东 CP Group 98


3 month average vol 3 个月平均成交股数 (lsquo000) 330043 P16 Grp EV 16 年 P Grp EV (基于收盘价) (x) 08

52 Weeks highlow (HK$) 52 周高低 62900 30500 Est FY16 NAV (HK$) 每股 16 年估值 734


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Figure-37 Ping An Life monthly premium income

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC

Figure-38 Ping An Life monthly ytd premium income yoy

(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC

Table-25 Sum-of-the-parts valuation of Ping An in RMB mn except per share data 2016F

Life insurance Embedded value 374825

One-years NBV 34085 Assumed NBV Multiplier 107 x Appraisal value (AP) 740974

PampC insurance Net asset value 65971

P B multiple 22 x Appraisal value (AP) 142966

Bank Net asset value 191267

P B multiple 08 x PA group shareholding 589 Attributable appraisal value 90193

Securities Net asset value 25388

P B multiple 16 x Appraisal Value (AP) 39603

Corporate and Other Net asset value 99608


Total 1113344 Value per share in RMB 6090 GTJA forex assumptions 083 Appraisal value per share in HKD 7338 Source the Company Guotai Junan International

Figure-39 Ping An historical PB

286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Historical PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



Figure-40 Ping An 12M forward PB

214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Figure-41 Ping An historical PGroup EV trading range

168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg


Figure-42 Ping An historical PGroup EV

165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x) PGrp EV Avg since 2009

+ 1 SD - 1 SD


Financial Statements and Key Ratios (Continued) Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Net earned premiums 288779 349846 407255 464934 520702

Insurance operation

Reinsurance commission income 7963 9148 10362 11494 12898

Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675

Interest income from banking 119422 132131 133175 147597 164525

Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129

Fees and commission income 25643 40499 45594 52511 60281

Mainland PampC premiums 143150 163955 178368 198524 221354

Net investment income 70337 90512 92512 103530 111961

Mainland PampC combined ratio 953 956 959 962 966

Net realised gains and FV gains 1201 44410 5274 8760 6338

Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value

Non-insurance expenses (204400) (259653) (259513) (300939) (331069)

Group embedded value 458812 552852 631446 747135 867781


Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089



Life insurance solvency margin ratio 2199 2032 2453 2394 2399

Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118

Cash amp term deposits 71431 80103 95222 109886 124171

ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data


Group EV per share 25799 30243 34543 40871 47471


NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089

Loans and advances to customers 1053882 1245371 333834 310754 347172

BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10

Customer deposits and breakage payables 1510448 1713907 1940474 2231545 2550656

Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Company Report China Pacific Insurance Group (02601 HK) Dayton Wang 王庆鲁

公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)

Life and PampC Performance Are Becoming Balanced 寿险和财产险表现趋于均衡

1Q16 life insurance premiums recorded strong yoy growth

particularly for the individual agent channel up 842 yoy which is

expected to lift the NBV growth momentum this year However quarterly

earnings were down 551 yoy on reduced investment income and

increased insurance liabilities

We expect CPIC Lifersquos business quality to be decent along with

improving PampC underwriting profit margin We see that the lesser

reliance on universal insurance products with a focused individual agent

distribution channel will likely to result in a sector leading NBM

We maintain an investment rating of ldquoAccumulaterdquo with a revised

target price of HKD 3105 per share Our SOTP based valuation

technique yields an appraisal value of HKD 4652 per share with a 2016F

NBV multiple of 62x and an assumed COE of 122 for the Companyrsquos life

insurance business

2016 年 1 季度寿险保费收入同比增长强劲特别是个险渠道同比增长 842预期

将会提升全年新业务价值增幅空间但 2016 年 1 季度净利润则由于投资收益的减少和

保险负债的增加而同比下降 551

我们预期公司的业务品质继续呈现良好势态并且其财产险业务的承保利润率将会有所

改善我们认为太保寿险对于万能险产品的依赖程度较低同时其销售渠道专注于个险

预期将导致行业领先的新业务利润率

我们对公司维持ldquo收集rdquo的投资评级新目标价为 3105 港元我们运用分部加总估值

方法并得出每股 4652 港元的评估价值我们给予寿险业务 62 倍的 2016 财年新业务

价值乘数并假设股本成本为 122

Rating Accumulate

Maintained

评级收集 (维持)




(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 90620 Major shareholder 大股东 Bao Steel 149





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

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ep

ort


Figure-43 CPIC Life monthly premium income

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC

Figure-44 CPIC Life monthly ytd premium income yoy

(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC

Table-26 Earnings revision of CPIC in RMB mn expect per share data New Old

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

Gross written premiums Life 137908 161352 182328

132479 151688 170952

41 64 67 Net written premiums PampC 84398 87546 91038

84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953

(00) (00) (00) Net profit for the year 16373 16748 19749

17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383

(80) (123) (101) Source Guotai Junan International

Table-27 Sum-of-the-parts valuation of CPIC in mn except per share data

2016F

Embedded value of life A

171027 New business value B

14067

NBV multiplier C

615 x CPICs shareholding in CPIC Life D

983

Valuation of life insurance business E = (A+BC)D

253131

Net assets of PampC insurance business F

32603 Assumed PB multiple G

130 x

Valuation of PampC insurance business H = FG

42393

Net assets of Corporate amp Other I

54339 Assumed PB multiple J

100 x

Valuation of Corporate amp Other K = IJ

54339

Aggregate value of CPIC group (in RMB) L = E+H+K

349863

Assumed exchange rate M

083

Aggregate value of CPIC group (in HKD) N = L M

421521

Shares outstanding O

9062

Value per share (in HKD) P = N O


Figure-45 CPIC historical PB

231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Historical PB Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD -1 SD


Figure-46 CPIC 12M forward PB

188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

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业

Se

cto

r R

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ort


Figure-47 CPIC historical PGroup EV trading range

183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg


Figure-48 CPIC historical PGroup EV

152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Gross written premiums 191805 203305 235478 262241 287407 Insurance operation

Premium ceded (13437) (13405) (18088) (19648) (20875) Life FYP 32250 36671 46889 55021 62721

Change in unearned premium reserves (5477) (524) (600) (669) (735) FYP yoy (50) 137 279 173 140

Net premiums earned 172891 189376 216790 241923 265797 PampC premiums 93026 94615 97570 100889 105079

Net investment income 36718 39881 42197 47582 51548 PampC premiums yoy 138 17 31 34 42

Net realised gains and FV gains 4710 15406 1576 1594 1405 Investments

Other income 1886 2300 (1896) (1136) (483) Investment income yoy 169 86 58 128 83

Total revenues 216205 246963 258667 289963 318266 Investment assets yoy 143 122 127 115 90

Insurance benefits and claims expenses (147958) (161337) (173916) (199060) (217943) Embedded value

Costs and other expenses (53769) (61350) (62957) (68613) (74036) Group embedded value 171294 205624 222866 254375 279880

Total benefits claims and expenses (201727) (222687) (236873) (267673) (291979) Group EV yoy 186 200 84 141 100

Share of profit of associates 22 35 37 41 45 New business value 8725 12022 14067 15406 16621

Profit before income tax 14500 24311 21831 22331 26332 NBV yoy 163 378 170 95 79

Income tax (3255) (6273) (5458) (5583) (6583) New business margin (FYP) 245 292 268 250 236

Net profit 11245 18038 16373 16748 19749 New business margin (APE) 245 292 268 250 236

ndash equity holders of the Company 11049 17728 16090 16460 19408 Capital position

ndash non-controlling interests 196 310 283 289 341 Shareholders equity yoy 184 138 19 122 106

Basic EPS (in RMB) 1220 1960 1776 1816 2142 Group solvency margin ratio 2804 2804 2795 2846 2860

Diluted EPS (in RMB) 1220 1960 1776 1816 2142 Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118

Year end Dec (in RMB mn) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F ROAA 14 20 17 16 17

Cash 14042 24191 21667 26843 23407 Per share data

Term deposits 165562 154398 172948 192364 211482 Group EV per share 18900 22690 24593 28071 30885

Bonds securities 420281 430633 482372 536525 589848 NBV per share 0963 1327 1552 1700 1834

Equity securities 80582 123279 149261 164279 175553 EPS (Basic) 1020 1220 1960 1776 1816

Other investment assets 81419 121957 136726 153706 170061 BPS 12926 14714 14991 16822 18602

Total investment assets 761886 854458 962974 1073716 1170351 DPS 0500 1000 0533 0545 0643

Other assets 63214 69385 32460 24366 40064 Dividend payout ratio 489 410 511 300 300

Total assets 825100 923843 995434 1098082 1210415 Valuation metrics

Insurance contracts liabilities 564643 621079 676972 747763 826789 Current PE (x) 169 110 121 118 100

Investment contracts liabilities 35662 40033 42035 44136 46343 Current PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12

Interest-bearing payables 19496 19497 19497 19497 19497 Current P EV (x) 11 10 09 08 07

Other liabilities 86104 107552 118220 131116 145703 Current P NBV (x) 214 163 138 126 117

Total liabilities 705905 788161 856724 942513 1038332 TP PE (x) 204 133 145 142 120

Shareholders equity 117131 133336 135847 152440 168573 TP PBPS (x) 19 18 17 15 14

Non-controlling interests 2064 2346 2863 3129 3510 TP P EV (x) 13 11 10 09 08

Total equity 119195 135682 138711 155569 172083 TP P NBV (x) 258 196 166 152 141


18 M

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Company Report PICC Group (01339 HK) Dayton Wang 王庆鲁

公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

PICC Group (01339 HK)

Downgrade to ldquoNeutralrdquo on Life Insurance Performance 由于寿险业务表现而下调投资评级至ldquo中性rdquo

PICC Life and PICC Health recorded an accounting loss of RMB 1944

million and RMB 477 million in 1Q16 respectively Moreover life and

health capital positions were weaker than PampC arm whose comprehensive

solvency margin ratios stood at 1660 and 1740 respectively implying

near-term capital replenishment may be needed

We see PICC Life is comparatively more exposed to the rising

insurance reserves risk given that it has a higher proportion of

traditional life insurance products in the product mix compared to the

other peers We see PICC Life may employ lower risk discount factors

resulting in higher insurance reserves should Chinarsquos government bond

yields continue to be low

We downgrade PICC Grouprsquos investment rating to ldquoNeutralrdquo with a

trimmed target price of HKD 326 per share Our SOTP based valuation



insurance business

2016 年 1 季度人保寿险和人保健康分别录得人民币 194 亿元和人民币 48 亿元的会计

亏损另外寿险业务和健康险业务的偿付能力水平较财产险弱其综合偿付能力充足

率分别为 1660和 1740意味着可能需要资本补充计划

我们认为人保寿险对于保险准备金上升风险的敞口较上市同业要高因其传统保险业务

占比较高由于中国国债收益率的不断走低我们认为公司可能会用更低的风险折现率

从而导致保险准备金的上升

我们下调人保集团的投资评级至ldquo中性rdquo并削减目标价至每股 326 港元我们运用分

部加总估值方法并得出每股 632 港元的评估价值我们给予寿险业务 57 倍的 2016 财

年新业务价值乘数并假设股本成本为 95






(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 424240 Major shareholder 大股东 Ministry of Finance 705


3 month average vol 3 个月平均成交股数 (lsquo000) 256912 Current 16 PB 16年 PB(基于收盘价) (x) 08



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

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业

Se

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ort


Figure-49 PICC Life monthly premium income

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC

Figure-50 PICC Life monthly ytd premium income yoy

(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC

Table-28 Sum-of-the-parts valuation of PICC Group

2016F

PICC PampC Net assets (in RMB mn) 119919

Target PB 18 x Appraisal value (in RMB mn) 211777

PICC Life Embedded value (EV) ( in RMB mn) 54744

1Y New business value (NBV) (in RMB mn) 3967 NBV multiple 57 x Total NBV (RMB mn) 22576 Appraisal value (RMB mn) 77320

PICC Health Net assets (in RMB mn) 4486


Asset management amp others Net assets (in RMB mn) 11203


PICC Group holdings in PICC PampC 690

PICC Life 800 PICC Health 940 Asset management and others 1000

Value attributable to PICC Group PICC PampC 146083


Total (in RMB mn) 222651 Shares in issue 42424 Value per share in RMB 525 Forex assumption 083 Value per share in HKD 632 Source Guotai Junan International

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

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Se

cto

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ort


Figure-51 PICC Group historical PB

157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Historical PB +1 SD

Avg since 2013 -1 SD


Figure-52 PICC Group 12M forward PB

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Net earned premiums 305614 349311 383038 428264 469448 Insurance operation

Reinsurance commission income 10109 9678 10404 11652 12576 Life GWP 78717 89608 104154 115413 129662

Investment income 31843 32410 41979 45875 50782 Life GWP yoy 46 138 162 108 123

Net realised gains and FV gains 1583 11926 1569 1164 1311 Life FYP 68500 78107 90161 101027 113382

Other income 2347 2686 2834 3137 3428 Life FYP yoy 34 140 154 121 122

Total revenues 351496 406011 439824 490090 537546 Investments

Insurance benefits and claims expenses (238760) (266143) (286903) (320999) (351748) Investment income yoy 169 18 295 93 107

Costs and other expenses (95161) (112389) (132514) (146977) (160045) Investment assets yoy 14 42 285 117 123

Total benefits claims and expenses (333921) (378532) (419417) (467976) (511793) Embedded value

Share of profit of associates 5845 6491 7791 8025 8265 Life insurance EV 47414 53028 54744 64812 72599

Profit before income tax 23420 33970 28198 30139 34018 Life insurance EV yoy 286 118 32 184 120

Income tax (4705) (6305) (7050) (7535) (8505) Life insurance NBV 3098 3462 3967 4142 4649

Net profit 18715 27665 21149 22604 25514 Life insurance NBV yoy (239) 117 146 44 122

ndash equity holders of the Company 13109 19542 14939 15967 18022 New business margin (FYP) 45 44 44 41 41

ndash non-controlling interests 5606 8123 6210 6637 7491 New business margin (APE) 311 257 250 227 221

Basic EPS (in RMB) 0310 0460 0352 0376 0425 Capital position

Diluted EPS (in RMB) 0310 0460 0352 0376 0425 Shareholders equity yoy 293 254 96 174 135

Life insurance solvency 3010 3030 3051 3103 3174

Profitability

Balance Sheet ROAE 160 187 123 115 113



Term deposits 164408 148097 155584 159785 164578 Life EV per share 1081 1250 1290 1528 1711

Bonds securities 235905 232147 337402 377446 420136 Life NBV per share 0073 0082 0094 0098 0110















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

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Se

cto

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ort


Company Report PICC PampC (02328 HK) Dayton Wang 王庆鲁

公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

PICC PampC (02328 HK)

The Only Pure PampC Play under Our Coverage Maintain ldquoBuyrdquo 覆盖行业内唯一的纯财产险投资标的维持ldquo买入rdquo的投资评级

PICC PampC delivered in-line 1Q16 earnings of RMB 42 billion In

addition we see manageable negative impact on 2016F EPS due to an

expected increase in finance costs as the Company plans to issue 10-year

capital supplementary bonds in an aggregate amount of not exceeding

RMB 15 billion on April 27

We apply a fair PB valuation technique by applying a 2016F PB of 213

x Our new target price is HKD 1725 per share representing a valuation

discount of 168 to its appraisal value of HKD 2073 per share

We maintain an investment rating of ldquoBuyrdquo on valuation and a pure

PampC play We see key investment thesis and upside risks include 1

leading ROE in listed PampC insurers 2 resilient agricultural underwriting

margin 3 less exposed to interest risk as liability duration is shorter than

that of life insurers and 4 the removal of a price overhang caused by the

recent sell-off of the key foreign shareholder of AIG

中国财险 2016 年 1 季度录得符合预期的净利润人民币 42 亿元另外公司在 4 月 27

日宣布计划发行不超过人民币 150 亿元的资本补充债券我们预期上升的融资开支对

2016 财年每股盈利下降影响在可控范围内

我们对公司运用公允市净率的估值方法给予 2016 财年 213 倍的市净率新的目标价

为 1725 港元较每股 2073 港元的评估值有 168的估值折让

考虑到现有估值水平和其纯财险投资标的的属性我们维持对公司ldquo买入rdquo的投资评级

我们认为主要的投资逻辑和股价上行因素包括1 财产险行业内拥有领先的股本回报

2 农业险承保利润率预期坚挺3 负债端期限较寿险公司短利率风险较小和 4 外资

股东 AIG 减持所带来的负面影响已经基本消除

Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 148280 Major shareholder 大股东 PICC Group 690





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Figure-53 PICC PampC monthly premium income

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC

Figure-54 PICC PampC monthly ytd premium income yoy

(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC

Table-29 Fair PB based valuation on PICC PampC Valuation year 2016F

Book value per share (in HKD) A 974 Target ROE B 190 Assumed long-term growth rate C 12 Estimated cost of equity D 96 Target implied PB E = (B -C ) (D - C) 213 x Value per share (in HKD) F = A E 2073 Source Guotai Junan International

Figure-55 PICC PampC historical PB

262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Historical PB Avg since 2010

+1 SD -1 SD



Figure-56 PICC PampC 12M forward PB

220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB Avg since 2010

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Underwriting operation

Insurance operation

Gross written premiums 253037 281698 309223 342328 371433 GWP yoy 132 113 98 107 85

Net claims incurred 211169 244567 262617 294122 317459 Motor GWP 185054 204266 220720 246799 267421

Claims incurred (135947) (153419) (162530) (182686) (196784) Motor GWP yoy 133 104 81 118 84

Costs and expenses (67931) (82544) (91442) (101854) (110052) Non-motor GWP 67983 77432 88502 95529 104012

Underwriting profit 7291 8604 8645 9583 10623 Non-motor GWP yoy 128 139 143 79 89

Investment amp other operation

Claims incurred yoy 157 158 74 120 79 Investment income 12141 14268 16177 17954 19892

Costs and expenses yoy 124 129 59 124 77

Net realised gains and FV gains 1319 6562 1269 1333 1400 Underwriting profits yoy 223 180 05 109 109

Costs and other expenses (1617) (1704) (2066) (2009) (2180) Loss ratio 644 627 619 621 620

Investment amp other operation profit 11843 19126 15379 17279 19112 Expense ratio 322 338 348 346 347

Share of profit of associates 307 473 519 575 624 Combined ratio 965 965 967 967 967

Profit before income tax 19441 28203 24543 27436 30359 Investments

Income tax (4326) (6356) (5496) (6164) (6809) Investment income yoy 222 175 134 110 108

Net profit 15115 21847 19047 21272 23549 Investment assets yoy 231 167 133 125 117



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1061 1473 1285 1435 1588 Solvency margin ratio 1802 2386 2256 2509 2491


Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155



Term deposits 88236 98663 101130 103860 106976 EPS (Basic) 1061 1473 1285 1435 1588

Bonds securities 129541 137456 155133 174086 193474 BPS 6020 7348 8088 9566 10968

Equity securities 40705 68714 92578 114281 140555 DPS 0270 0304 0270 0300 0330

Other investment assets 12243 16364 17428 20177 19833 Dividend payout ratio 255 206 210 209 208

Total investment assets 294882 344025 389780 438503 489808 Valuation metrics

Other assets 71248 76395 118740 125976 135657 Current PE (x) 101 76 87 78 70

Total assets 366130 420420 508520 564479 625465 Current PBPS (x) 18 15 14 12 10

Insurance contracts liabilities 198137 217288 239867 264979 287982 TP PE (x) 130 98 111 100 90

Policyholdersrsquo deposits 1786 2226 2626 2941 3175 TP PBPS (x) 23 20 18 15 13

Interest-bearing payables 22449 16297 16297 16297 16297 Other liabilities 57983 75658 129806 138424 155385 Total liabilities 280355 311469 388596 422642 462838 Shareholders equity 85770 108946 119919 141832 162622 Non-controlling interests 5 5 5 5 5 Total equity 85775 108951 119924 141837 162627 Source the Company Guotai Junan International

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Company Report New China Life (01336 HK) Dayton Wang 王庆鲁

公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

New China Life (01336 HK)

Implementing Protection Oriented Product Strategy

保障为主的产品策略

1Q16 results implied New China Lifersquos continuation in product shift

The Companyrsquos 1Q16 premium income was down 104 yoy

Bancassurance premiums dropped almost 30 yoy (~bancassurance

single premiums down 30 and renewal premiums down 25 yoy) On the

other hand individual life insurance business exhibited decent growth of

513 yoy in FYP which was driven by higher margin regular premium

products (~545 yoy gain)

We see New China Life is implementing a protection oriented product

strategy judging by its more frequent launches of health insurance

products We believe this product strategy will be used as a counter

measure to the potential rising insurance reserves In addition our analysis

suggests New China Lifersquos investment asset mix is better positioned under

normalised investment return assumptions compared to covered peersrsquo

average

We reiterate an investment rating of ldquoAccumulaterdquo with a revised

target price of HKD 3180 per share We value New China Life by

applying NBV multiple based valuation technique with a 2016F NBV

multiple of 63x and an assumed COE of 105

2016 年 1 季度业绩表明新华保险产品组合正在持续变化公司季度保费收入同比下滑

104银保渠道保费收入同比减少接近 30（～银保趸交同比下跌 30银保期交同

比下跌 25）而个险渠道新单保费收入同比增长 513主要的推动因素是较高价值

的期交保单（～同比增幅为 545）

因为公司提高了新健康险产品的推出频率我们认为新华保险正在采取保障为主的产品

策略我们认为这种产品策略是对应可能上升的保险准备金风险的措施之一另外我

们的分析显示公司资产配置状态在投资收益率假设下要优于上市同业公司平均水平

我们重申ldquo收集rdquo的投资评级并给予每股 3180 港元的目标价我们运用新业务价值乘

数的估值方法2016 财年新业务价值乘数为 63 倍并假设股本成本为 105

Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI New China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 31200 Major shareholder 大股东 Central Huijin 313





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Figure-57 New China Life monthly premium income

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC

Figure-58 New China Life monthly ytd premium income yoy

(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC

Table-30 NBV multiple based valuation of New China Life

2016F

Embedded value (EV) (RMB mn) 113443 1Y New business value (NBV) (RMB mn) 7054 NBV multiple 63 x Total NBV 44409 Appraisal value 157852 Number of shares (in mn) 3120 Appraisal value per share (RMB) 5060 Appraisal value EV 139 Appraisal value NBV 2238 Appraisal value BPS 261 EV per share (RMB) 3637 NBV per share (RMB) 226 BPS (RMB) 1939

GTJA assumed forex rate 0830

Appraisal value per share (HKD) 6097 Source Guotai Junan International

Figure-59 New China Life historical PB

191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6





Figure-60 New China Life 12M forward PB

160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Figure-61 New China Life historical PEV trading range

101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg


Figure-62 New China Life historical PEV

131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) PEV Avg since 2011

+ 1 SD - 1 SD




Year end Dec (in RMB mn) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Gross written premiums 110067 111994 115550 120981 127877

Insurance operation

Premium ceded (404) (690) (568) (670) (668) GWP 110067 111994 115550 120981 127877

Change in unearned premium reserves (193) 51 (73) (54) (69) GWP yoy 58 18 32 47 57

Net premiums earned 109470 111355 114910 120257 127140 FYP 42699 51088 53038 55409 58632

Investment income 29037 30184 29867 31918 33760 FYP yoy 344 196 38 45 58


Other income 840 1494 1541 1614 1706 Investment income yoy 232 40 (11) 69 58



Costs and other expenses (21690) (26621) (27195) (29187) (30437) Embedded value 85260 103280 113443 129246 146233

Total benefits claims and expenses (134851) (146671) (139850) (147043) (153981) EV yoy 324 211 98 139 131









Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113

Year end Dec (in RMB mn) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F ROAA 11 13 11 11 12


Term deposits 167297 127679 127679 128956 130245 EV per share 20773 33107 36365 41431 46876
















18 M

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016

In

su

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业

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Company Report CTIH (00966 HK) Dayton Wang 王庆鲁

公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)

Reiterate ldquoAccumulaterdquo with a Revised Target Price of HKD 1800 重申ldquo收集rdquo下调目标价至每股1800港元

Taiping Life and Taiping General posted RMB 11 billon and RMB 175

million in 1Q16 net profit respectively The Companyrsquos Mainland

Chinarsquos pension business incurred accounting losses whereas reinsurance

business posted relatively small net profit as the business was recently

established

As Taiping Lifersquos current business mix has a considerate proportion

of participating products comparatively speaking we see the

Company is less exposed to rising insurance reserves In addition our

analysis suggests CTIHrsquos investment asset mix is better positioned under

normalised investment return assumptions compared to the average of

covered peers

We reiterate an investment rating of ldquoAccumulaterdquo for CTIH with a

revised target price of HKD 1800 per share Our SOTP based valuation


NBV multiple of 62 x and an assumed COE of 96 for the Companyrsquos life

insurance business

太平人寿和太平财产险分别录得人民币 11 亿元和人民币 175 亿元 2016 年 1 季度净利

润公司在中国内地的养老保险业务则录得会计亏损而新开设的再保险业务录得小额

盈利

由于太平人寿的产品组合中分红险产品占比较高比较来看我们认为其面临的保险准

备金上升风险敞口较低另外我们的分析显示中国太平资产配置状态在投资收益率假

设下要优于上市同业公司平均水平

我们对中国太平重申ldquo收集rdquo的投资评级并给予每股 1800 港元的目标价我们运用分

部加总估值方法并得出每股 4063 港元的评估价值我们给予寿险业务 62 倍的 2016

财年新业务价值乘数并假设股本成本为 96

Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Taiping In


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率


1231 (HKD m) (HKD m) (HKD) () (x) (HKD) (x) (HKD) () ()

2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 35940 Major shareholder 大股东 China Taiping Group 596





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Figure-63 Taiping Life monthly premium income

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC

Figure-64 Taiping Life monthly ytd premium income yoy

(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC

Table-31 Sum-of-the-parts valuation of CTIH in HKD mn except per share data 2016F

Life Insurance Embedded value 98206

One-years NBV after cost 6310 Assumed NBV Multiple 66 x Valuation of new business 41386 Appraisal value 139592 Attributable appraisal value 104834

Mainland China PampC Net assets of PampC segment 7410

Net profit attributable 946 P B multiple 11 x Attributable appraisal value 8304

Overseas PampC Net assets of PampC segment 6869


Reinsurance Insurance Net assets of Reinsurance segment 5562

Net profit (Reinsurance) attributable 448 P B multiple 08 x Attributable appraisal value 4450

Others Net assets of other segment 13718

Net profit (Others) attributable 340 P B multiple 10 x Attributable appraisal value 13718

Total attributable appraisal value 131304 Number of shares in (mn) 3594 Appraisal value per share (HKD) 3653 Source Guotai Junan International

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


Figure-65 CTIH historical PB

204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Historical PB Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD -1 SD


Figure-66 CTIH 12M forward PB

153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD


Figure-67 CTIH historical PGroup EV trading range

086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



Figure-68 CTIH historical PGroup EV

082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) PGrp Ev Avg since 2010

+ 1 SD - 1 SD



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Financial Statements and Key Ratios

Income Statement

Financial Ratios (in HKD mn except and per share data)

Year end Dec (in HKD mn) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197

Share of profit of associates 2 (2) (3) (3) (3)



NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position

ndash non-controlling interests (832) (1827) (1741) (1967) (1946)


Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


Diluted EPS (in HKD) 1440 1781 1610 1829 1809

Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data

Investment funds 5382 12704 12041 14385 14470



NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


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Company Rating Definition

The Benchmark Hong Kong Hang Seng Index

Time Horizon 6 to 18 months

Rating Definition

Buy Relative Performance gt15 or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable

Accumulate Relative Performance is 5 to 15 or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable

Neutral Relative Performance is -5 to 5 or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral

Reduce Relative Performance is -5 to -15 or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable

Sell Relative Performance lt-15 or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable

Sector Rating Definition



Rating Definition

Outperform Relative Performance gt5 or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable

Neutral Relative Performance is -5 to 5 or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral

Underperform Relative Performance lt-5 or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable

DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS

(1) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK) the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report

(2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report

(3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK) Guangshen Railway Company Limited-H shares (00525 HK) China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633 HK) Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK) Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK) Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1 of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report

(4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with CTIH (00966) New China Life (01336) PICC Group (01339) Ping An (02318) PICC PampC (02328) CPIC (02601) and China Life (02628) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months

DISCLAIMER

This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited (Guotai Junan) Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports including investment banking investment services and etc (for example the placing agent lead manager sponsor underwriter or invest proprietarily)

Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan

Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation so uncertainty may contain Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision

This Research Report is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction copy 2016 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited All Rights Reserved 27F Low Block Grand Millennium Plaza 181 Queenrsquos Road Central Hong Kong Tel (852) 2509-9118 Fax (852) 2509-7793 Website wwwgtjacomhk

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Table of Contents

Investment thesis rating changes and stock picks 3

1Q16 results wrap strong premium income growth but shareholdersrsquo profit declined sharply 4

Which life insurer is best positioned under current operating conditions 7

Life and PampC insurance sector near-term outlook 13

Sector valuation where are we now and what is in the price 15

China Life (02628 HK) 19

Ping An Insurance (02318 HK) 22

CPIC (02601 HK) 25

PICC Group (01339 HK) 28

PICC PampC (02328 HK) 31

New China Life (01336 HK) 34

CTIH (00966 HK) 37

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(in HKD) New

Rating Absolute

Upside Previous TP

(in HKD) Previous

Rating TP

Change Rating

Change



05

08

10

13

15

18

20

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





05

08

10

13

15

18

20

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6




18 M

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18 M

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Average 120 99 99 85 99 128




Average 570 525 482 489 427 399



2014 2015


Average 148 172



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


07 51 41 71 89


Average 81 42 07 46 40 85 94




Average 53 41 34 33 48 54 70


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240

200

250

300

350

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015



399

350

400

450

500

550

600

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



128

50

80

110

140

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



172

00

50

100

150

200

20

13

20

14

20

15



(100)

100

300

500

700

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

China Life Ping An

CPIC PICC Group


CTIH



00

30

60

90

120

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15


Investment yield


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Overall strength






















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Company 2015 2014 2013











25

30

35

40

45

50

May

-07

Nov-0

7

May

-08

Nov-0

8

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

May

-13

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16



Source China Bond


15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ma

y-1

0

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

Ma

y-1

6


Source China Bond










jumpstart season





18 M

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38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company


42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

















18 M

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328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40



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jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











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00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














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business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

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for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























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(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









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25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



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25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




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(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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016

In

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Secto

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






















(in HKD) New

Rating Absolute

Upside Previous TP

(in HKD) Previous

Rating TP

Change Rating

Change



05

08

10

13

15

18

20

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





05

08

10

13

15

18

20

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Average 120 99 99 85 99 128




Average 570 525 482 489 427 399



2014 2015


Average 148 172



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


07 51 41 71 89


Average 81 42 07 46 40 85 94




Average 53 41 34 33 48 54 70


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



240

200

250

300

350

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015



399

350

400

450

500

550

600

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



128

50

80

110

140

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



172

00

50

100

150

200

20

13

20

14

20

15



(100)

100

300

500

700

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

China Life Ping An

CPIC PICC Group


CTIH



00

30

60

90

120

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15


Investment yield


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





















Overall strength






















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Company 2015 2014 2013











25

30

35

40

45

50

May

-07

Nov-0

7

May

-08

Nov-0

8

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

May

-13

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16



Source China Bond


15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ma

y-1

0

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

Ma

y-1

6


Source China Bond










jumpstart season





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company


42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort
























328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort













jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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rance

Secto

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业

Se

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ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

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Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Average 120 99 99 85 99 128




Average 570 525 482 489 427 399



2014 2015


Average 148 172



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


07 51 41 71 89


Average 81 42 07 46 40 85 94




Average 53 41 34 33 48 54 70


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



240

200

250

300

350

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015



399

350

400

450

500

550

600

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



128

50

80

110

140

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



172

00

50

100

150

200

20

13

20

14

20

15



(100)

100

300

500

700

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

China Life Ping An

CPIC PICC Group


CTIH



00

30

60

90

120

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15


Investment yield


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

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Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





















Overall strength






















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Company 2015 2014 2013











25

30

35

40

45

50

May

-07

Nov-0

7

May

-08

Nov-0

8

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

May

-13

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16



Source China Bond


15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ma

y-1

0

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

Ma

y-1

6


Source China Bond










jumpstart season





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company


42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort
























328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort













jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

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rance

Secto

r 保险行

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Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ort



公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Average 120 99 99 85 99 128




Average 570 525 482 489 427 399



2014 2015


Average 148 172



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


07 51 41 71 89


Average 81 42 07 46 40 85 94




Average 53 41 34 33 48 54 70


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



240

200

250

300

350

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015



399

350

400

450

500

550

600

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



128

50

80

110

140

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



172

00

50

100

150

200

20

13

20

14

20

15



(100)

100

300

500

700

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

China Life Ping An

CPIC PICC Group


CTIH



00

30

60

90

120

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15


Investment yield


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





















Overall strength






















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Company 2015 2014 2013











25

30

35

40

45

50

May

-07

Nov-0

7

May

-08

Nov-0

8

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

May

-13

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16



Source China Bond


15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ma

y-1

0

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

Ma

y-1

6


Source China Bond










jumpstart season





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company


42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort
























328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort













jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

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ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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In

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

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016

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

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016

In

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公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Se

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ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



240

200

250

300

350

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015



399

350

400

450

500

550

600

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



128

50

80

110

140

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15



172

00

50

100

150

200

20

13

20

14

20

15



(100)

100

300

500

700

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

China Life Ping An

CPIC PICC Group


CTIH



00

30

60

90

120

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15


Investment yield


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





















Overall strength






















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Company 2015 2014 2013











25

30

35

40

45

50

May

-07

Nov-0

7

May

-08

Nov-0

8

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

May

-13

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16



Source China Bond


15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ma

y-1

0

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

Ma

y-1

6


Source China Bond










jumpstart season





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company


42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort
























328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort













jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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016

In

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Secto

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

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Se

cto

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ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





















Overall strength






















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Company 2015 2014 2013











25

30

35

40

45

50

May

-07

Nov-0

7

May

-08

Nov-0

8

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

May

-13

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16



Source China Bond


15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ma

y-1

0

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

Ma

y-1

6


Source China Bond










jumpstart season





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company


42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort
























328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort













jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

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Se

cto

r R

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ort



公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Company 2015 2014 2013











25

30

35

40

45

50

May

-07

Nov-0

7

May

-08

Nov-0

8

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

May

-13

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16



Source China Bond


15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ma

y-1

0

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Nov-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

Ma

y-1

6


Source China Bond










jumpstart season





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company


42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort
























328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort













jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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016

In

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Secto

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

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ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

cto

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公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company


42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Source the Company

















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort
























328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort













jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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Se

cto

r R

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ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

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公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

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Se

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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

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Se

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公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

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016

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ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort
























328

361 358

335

317

349361

25

28

30

33

35

38

40



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort













jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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016

In

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Secto

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

r R

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ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort













jumpstart season


name Category Reg

Date Key benefits


Remarks


Basic policy




na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


na Basic policy


Rider


na Basic policy











18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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016

In

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Secto

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


















00

200

400

600

800

1000


Other

Health amp accident

Universal

Participating

Traditional














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort


business


00

200

400

600

800

1000


















(100)

100

300

500

700

900

Ma

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Total Human

PampC

Source CIRC


00

200

400

600

800

1000

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

5

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

7

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16



Source CIRC






2016

18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort










for PampC insurers


121

113

121

123

105

110

115

120

125


pilot regions

2nd batch of

pilot regions

Non pilot

regions

Source CIRC


942944

955

960

930

940

950

960

970


1Q16 1Q15

Source CIRC























18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(40)

(20)

00

20

40

60

80

100

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





(200)

(100)

00

100

200

300

400

500

00

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

() GB YTM 1yr (LHS)


bonds (RHS)














173

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

May

-09

Nov-0

9

May

-10

Nov-1

0

May

-11

Nov-1

1

May

-12

Nov-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

May

-14

Nov-1

4

May

-15

Nov-1

5

May

-16

(x)



204 214

129 132

104 094 093 085

336

286

222

174 172 183 192

118

275

244

180

153

130 110

145

095

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD

(x)

Min Max Avg









18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CPIC (LHS)




25

30

35

40

45

50

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 A

pr-

13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6





25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)NCL (LHS)



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

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rance

Secto

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Se

cto

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ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

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Secto

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Se

cto

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ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

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016

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Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



25

30

35

40

45

50

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

()(HK$)CTIH (LHS)









Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD) Implied

Px (in HKD)




18 M

ay 2

016

In

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(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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Se

cto

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ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

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016

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0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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rance

Secto

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Se

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Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

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ep

ort



(in local $)

15A 16F 17F 18F

15A 16F 17F 18F

16F

16F

HKD mn


112 122 103 112

12 12 11 10

108

30

638466


92 98 90 83

16 14 12 11

146

18

659223


257 190 158 143

23 21 19 18

109

18

528368


121 111 101 93

25 23 17 13

212

32

372536


170 97 87 78

10 09 09 08

96

41

215556


107 130 119 113

15 14 13 12

116

32

269314


53 70 64 65

09 09 07 06

120

05

127272


74 86 79 77

15 14 12 11

163

30

198702


72 85 73 63

11 10 09 08

128

12

123968


78 88 76 71

09 08 07 07

100

02

52113


71 87 73 65

09 08 07 07

96

25

73336

Simple Average

110 106 93 87

14 13 11 10

127

22 Weighted Average

128 119 104 99

16 15 13 11

132

24


170 174 154 147

18 18 17 15

104

20

638470


135 150 133 134

18 17 16 15

121

28

269316


106 101 92 79

17 14 13 11

157

17

659227


144 158 135 120

21 20 18 16

136

06

123969

Simple Average

139 146 128 120

19 17 16 14

129

18 Weighted Average

137 140 125 116

18 16 15 14

130

19


114 118 98 93

08 07 07 07

65

29

197665


133 107 93 88

06 06 06 06

55

24

131660


104 87 72 70

04 05 04 04

55

26

110663


159 100 139 130

08 07 07 07

79

19

134713


157 135 129 119

12 12 11 10

86

22

90099


98 99 91 85

06 05 05 05

54

33

37108


107 100 86 79

12 11 10 09

122

25

32961


76 100 92 82

10 09 09 08

96

47

104105


108 80 62 64

06 05 05 05

72

13

14933


127 129 122 114

16 14 13 12

117

26

56438


178 140 121 110

11 11 11 10

83

48

92887


164 147 138 130

19 19 18 18

122

54

91940

Simple Average

127 112 104 97

10 09 09 09

84

30 Weighted Average

130 114 107 100

09 09 09 08

79

31


327 134 98 82

07 07 06 06

61

23

480171


94 79 72 67

07 07 06 05

94

37

370118


61 80 73 68

08 07 06 06

120

37

260576


102 118 113 112

14 13 12 12

118

23

254743


214 190 171 152

52 46 41 42

244

20

260759


132 142 109 102

14 13 12 12

97

19

196294


117 104 99 93

17 14 13 12

158

24

221792


215 162 145 131

47 48 44 45

280

12

218346


144 127 120 110

14 12 11 11

104

22

451717


109 113 100 91

10 09 09 08

87

20

135271


553 159 124 na

08 08 07 na

41

06

104813


153 175 154 148

26 24 23 21

147

20

149517


103 99 91 84

13 12 11 10

129

37

94856


94 70 62 57

08 07 06 05

108

24

80034

Simple Average

173 125 109 100

18 16 15 15

128

23 Weighted Average

173 125 109 100

17 16 14 14

125

24


96 86 83 80

08 07 07 07

90

57

446790


129 111 101 93

26 23 17 13

212

32

375465


199 111 101 93

11 11 11 11

104

67

282324


67 92 97 95

09 09 09 08

96

56

255108


121 110 103 97

20 20 19 19

184

65

147116


133 96 88 84

12 11 11 11

115

51

93488


187 88 80 75

11 11 10 10

108

55

192809


46 121 111 101

16 15 14 14

125

61

71475

Simple Average

122 102 95 90

14 13 12 12

129

55 Weighted Average

125 100 94 88

14 13 12 11

129

54


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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In

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Secto

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

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016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

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ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国人寿 (02628 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016






















deterioration

















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Life-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(149) (14) (546)


(93) (77) (269)


178 181 256


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 440766 32211 1140 301 118 10052 13 0400 30 128

2015A 507449 34699 1220 71 115 11410 12 0420 30 114

2016F 532382 30445 1077 (117) 129 11908 12 0366 26 92

2017F 587733 32529 1151 68 121 12587 11 0391 28 94

2018F 635239 34107 1207 49 116 13315 10 0410 29 93






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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016

In

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

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rance

Secto

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Se

cto

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ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

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Secto

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Se

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10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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Se

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Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

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rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

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Secto

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业

Se

cto

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101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

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In

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公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

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rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

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016

In

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Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

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Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

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rance

Secto

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Se

cto

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ort



10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

800

1000

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


425846 474818 515178

00 00 (00)


424943 473677 514012

(00) (00) 00


105853 108349 115190

(14) (09) 03

Total revenues 532382 587733 635239

533575 588807 634869

(02) (02) 01


(368981) (413895) (449854)

19 12 15

EPS basic 1077 1151 1207 1287 1306 1371 (163) (119) (120)



2016F



28265

EV per share

22055 NBV per share

1203




203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



203

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

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016

In

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Se

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0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

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016

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ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



222 217

139 141

103 104 116

092

359

319

223

187 183

227 241

133

293

265

183 162

132 127

175

104

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg




186

05

15

25

35

Ma

y-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov

-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1N

ov

-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2N

ov

-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay

-13

Au

g-1

3N

ov

-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay

-14

Au

g-1

4N

ov

-14

Fe

b-1

5M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov

-15

Fe

b-1

6M

ay

-16


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (515) (978) (903) (1142) (1166)

GWP 331010 363971 425846 474818 515178


GWP yoy 14 100 170 115 85


FYP 116587 139976 147894 164008 177319


FYP yoy 14 201 57 109 81




Total revenues 440766 507449 532382 587733 635239



Embedded value


Embedded value 454906 560277 623372 721984 819990


EV yoy 329 232 113 158 136




NBV yoy 92 356 79 119 95

Income tax (7888) (10744) (10291) (10995) (11529)


Net profit 32514 35187 30874 32986 34587



Capital position



Basic EPS (in RMB) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 128 114 92 94 93


ROAA 15 15 12 12 12

Cash 58959 97599 78279 80627 83046

Per share data

Term deposits 690156 562622 606360 631733 659510

EV per share 16094 19822 22055 25543 29011


NBV per share 0823 1115 1203 1346 1474


EPS (Basic) 1140 1220 1077 1151 1207


BPS 10052 11410 11908 12587 13315


DPS 0400 0420 0366 0391 0410

Other assets 145697 160676 239440 253013 267456


Total assets 2246567 2448315 2664881 2831514 3015414

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 118 115 129 121 116


Current PBPS (x) 13 12 12 11 10


Current P EV (x) 08 07 06 05 05


Current P NBV (x) 163 126 116 104 95


TP PE (x) 139 136 153 143 137


TP PBPS (x) 16 15 14 13 12


TP P EV (x) 10 08 07 06 06

Total equity 287331 326214 340472 359912 380738

TP P NBV (x) 193 149 137 122 112


18 M

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016

In

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公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

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ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

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公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

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Se

cto

r R

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ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

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rance

Secto

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Se

cto

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ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

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rance

Secto

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业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

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016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

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016

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Secto

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10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

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rance

Secto

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Se

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Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国平安 (02318 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016
























均水平的表现




Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Ping An-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(102) 35 (384)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (46) (28) (107)


平均股价（港元） 359 356 416


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 530001 39279 2470 388 110 16282 17 0368 14 166

2015A 693220 54203 2980 206 95 18285 15 0530 19 174

2016F 709203 50915 2785 (65) 101 21418 13 0501 18 140

2017F 811494 51428 2813 10 100 24587 11 0506 18 122

2018F 902350 56471 3089 98 91 27775 10 0556 20 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

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Secto

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Se

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ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(400)

(200)

00

200

400

600

800

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC














286

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




214

10

15

20

25

30

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB Avg

+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



168

208

110 121

089 092 094 093

325

290

241

161 148

160

190

119

259 244

182

141

115 104

137

102

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



165

05

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation


Life FYP 72203 99110 116832 134351 151675


Life FYP yoy 223 373 179 150 129






Investments

Other income 16656 26674 15030 22668 25646


Total revenues 530001 693220 709203 811494 902350



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 392 205 142 183 161



Income tax (14423) (28235) (16775) (18369) (20177)

NBV yoy 209 404 105 147 128

Net profit 47911 65178 61225 61841 67905





Capital position

Basic EPS (in RMB) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089




Balance Sheet

Profitability


ROAE 166 174 140 122 118


ROAA 29 34 20 13 12


Per share data




NBV per share 1235 1687 1865 2140 2413


EPS (Basic) 2470 2980 2785 2813 3089


BPS 16282 18285 21418 24587 27775

Other assets 1477931 1788169 3439370 4339283 5326652

DPS 0368 0530 0501 0506 0556

Total assets 4005911 4765159 5799199 6988034 8315761



Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 110 95 101 100 91


Current PBPS (x) 17 15 13 11 10


Current P EV (x) 11 09 08 07 06


Current P NBV (x) 220 167 151 132 117


TP PE (x) 154 132 141 140 127


TP PBPS (x) 23 22 18 16 14


TP P EV (x) 15 13 11 10 08

Total equity 353816 413571 481159 549505 619221

TP P NBV (x) 307 233 211 184 163


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太保 (02601 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CPIC (02601 HK)















insurance business










Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI China Pacific-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (125) 04 (373)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (69) (59) (96)


平均股价（港元） 271 271 309


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 216205 11049 1220 196 169 12926 16 0500 24 101

2015A 246963 17728 1960 607 110 14714 15 1000 46 139

2016F 258667 16090 1776 (94) 121 14991 14 0533 25 117

2017F 289963 16460 1816 23 118 16822 13 0545 25 112

2018F 318266 19408 2142 179 100 18602 12 0643 30 118






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(200)

00

200

400

600

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F

2016F 2017F 2018F


132479 151688 170952


84398 87546 91038

00 (00) (00)


43773 49176 52953


17801 19090 21976

(80) (123) (101)

EPS basic (RMB) 1776 1816 2142

1930 2070 2383



2016F



14067

NBV multiplier C


983


253131



130 x


42393



100 x


54339


349863


083


421521


9062




231

11

15

19

23

27

31

35

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



188

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



183

139 127

107 104 093 098

253

203

168 158

187 191

132

211

173

150

130 120

147

110

05

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg



152

08

12

16

20

24

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD





2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 101 139 117 112 118



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告人保集团 (01339 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


















insurance business















(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100


of return

HSI Picc Group-H


股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (112) 68 (455)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (56) 05 (178)


平均股价（港元） 31 31 38


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 351496 13109 0310 632 77 2182 11 0009 04 160

2015A 406011 19542 0460 484 55 2737 09 0009 04 187

2016F 439824 14939 0352 (234) 71 3000 08 0008 03 123

2017F 490090 15967 0376 69 66 3523 07 0009 04 115

2018F 537546 18022 0425 129 59 3998 06 0011 04 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Apr-

15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC


2016F














18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



157

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6





07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x)Forward PB +1 SD






2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F



















Profitability




















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国财险 (02328 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016


























Rating Buy

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return

HSI Picc PampC-H


1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(77) 98 (249)


(21) (35) (28)


139 134 155


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 253037 15115 1061 390 101 6020 18 0270 25 211

2015A 281698 21847 1473 389 76 7348 15 0304 27 224

2016F 309223 19047 1285 (128) 87 8088 14 0270 24 166

2017F 342328 21272 1435 117 78 9566 12 0300 27 163

2018F 371433 23549 1588 107 70 10968 10 0330 30 155






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(100)

100

300

500

700

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC




262

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD




220

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort






Insurance operation




















Balance Sheet

ROAE 211 224 166 163 155













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告新华保险 (01336 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

















average














Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs

绝对变动 (105) 34 (511)

Rel to HS index

相对恒指变动 (49) (30) (235)


平均股价（港元） 255 254 330


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 142094 6406 2050 444 96 11782 17 0210 11 146

2015A 157918 8601 2760 346 75 18540 11 0280 14 162

2016F 149100 7339 2353 (148) 87 19387 11 0242 12 124

2017F 156720 7658 2455 43 83 23912 09 0253 12 113

2018F 165721 9206 2951 202 69 28515 07 0310 15 113






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

(RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Source CIRC


2016F





191

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6






160

08

11

13

16

18

21

23

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

(x)

Forward PB +1 SD




18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



101 102 089 088 087

212

161

187 189

133

160

122

106

141

101

05

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)

Min Max Avg



131

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD






Insurance operation



















Balance Sheet

ROAE 146 162 124 113 113



















18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



公司报告中国太平 (00966 HK) +852 2509-5347


18 May 2016

CTIH (00966 HK)






established






covered peers





insurance business



盈利







Rating Accumulate

Maintained





(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

00

100

200


of return



1 M 1 个月

3 M 3 个月

1 Y 1 年

Abs 绝对变动

(166) (61) (498)


(110) (124) (221)


158 160 220


Year End 年结

Turnover 收入


EPS 每股净利


PER 市盈率

BPS 每股净资产

PBR 市净率

DPS 每股股息

Yield 股息率



2014A 85117 4042 1442 933 101 14806 10 0000 00 130

2015A 160668 6341 1781 235 81 17476 08 0000 00 126

2016F 174277 6041 1610 (96) 90 17431 08 0000 00 99

2017F 203044 6829 1829 136 79 20309 07 0000 00 101

2018F 234247 6753 1809 (11) 80 22517 06 0000 00 88






18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

(in RMB mn)

Source CIRC


(500)

00

500

1000

1500

2000

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Apr-

13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Source CIRC













18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



204

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+1 SD -1 SD



153

07

10

12

15

17

20

22

25

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

(x) Forward PB

Avg since Nov 2010

+1 SD

-1 SD



086

052

036 047

061

044

177

109

076

120

141

073

126

076

053

073

093

051

02

06

10

14

18

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(x)Min

Max

Avg




082

02

05

08

11

14 M

ay

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6


+ 1 SD - 1 SD



18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort



Income Statement



2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F


Insurance operation

Premium ceded (43182) (6718) (6950) (8574) (9892)

Life FYP 41326 43809 47475 51218 54970


Life FYP yoy 273 60 84 79 73






Investments

Other income 749 1860 1455 1068 717


Total revenues 85117 160668 174277 203044 234247



Embedded value




Group EV yoy 721 433 187 235 197




NBV yoy 374 391 160 101 73

Income tax (1740) (2840) (2435) (2739) (2548)


Net profit 4874 8168 7782 8796 8699



Capital position



Basic EPS (in HKD) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809



Profitability

Balance Sheet

ROAE 130 126 99 101 88


ROAA 09 13 11 11 11


Per share data




NBV per share 1574 1760 1942 2138 2294


EPS (Basic) 1442 1781 1610 1829 1809


BPS 14806 17476 17431 20309 22517


DPS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Other assets 86288 115364 118825 122390 126061


Total assets 443549 488031 520188 571916 625036

Valuation metrics


Current PE (x) 101 81 90 79 80


Current PBPS (x) 10 08 08 07 06


Current P EV (x) 05 04 04 03 03


Current P NBV (x) 92 82 75 68 63


TP PE (x) 125 101 112 98 100


TP PBPS (x) 12 10 10 09 08


TP P EV (x) 06 05 05 04 03

Total equity 51339 71799 76457 88769 98650

TP P NBV (x) 114 102 93 84 78


18 M

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Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





18 M

ay 2

016

In

su

rance

Secto

r 保险行

业

Se

cto

r R

ep

ort





Rating Definition









Rating Definition









DISCLAIMER





prefer p&c over life insurers on higher earnings …...valuation (~24.1% average upside...

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