presentaciones matt barrie - ecommerce day buenos aires 2016
TRANSCRIPT
How to not get screwed in a venture financing
Matt Barrie,Chief ExecutiveFreelancer.com
What is the best place to raise money from?
a) friends, fools and family
b) angel investors
b) angel investors
c) venture capitalists
d) the ASX
d) the stock exchange
Trick Question?
Sell something to Customers!
Startup Tip #1:
A friendly venture capitalist is not the solution to all your problems
Ramen Profitability“Ramen profitable means a startup makes just enough to pay the founders' living expenses” – Paul Graham, YCombinator
Startup Tip #2: Ramen Profitability
Role of Startup CEO• One job and one job only – “to keep the company funded”
Startup Tip #3:
STARTUP CEOs
YOU HAVEONE JOB ANDONE JOB ONLY
Running out of cash is a disasterDO NOT RUN OUT OF CASH
Startup Tip #4:If you need to raise money..
Inflection PointBreak-even
Ramen Profitability
Time (months)
Cas
h flo
w ($
k)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Valu
atio
n ($
m)
Valuation of Company (RHS)
Ideally raise enough to plug this hole
Peak of TechCrunch Hype
Valley of Death
Horizon of Hope
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
At minimum enough cash to reach demonstrable valuation milestone
Raise enough to cross the valley of death
DO NOT RUN OUT OF CASH
DO NOT RUN OUT OF CASH
DO NOT RUN OUT OF CASH
CASH IS KING!!!!
Running out of cash is a disasterNOT RUN OUT OF CASH
COMPANIES RARELY SURVIVE DOWNROUNDS
STARTUP TIP 4: Remember Hofstadter’s Law
“A task always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law”
Startup Tip 5:
Hofstadter’s Law
“A task always takes longer than you expect, even
when you take into account
Hofstadter’s Law”
Startup Tip #6:It is easier to ask for more
money than less money
Startup Tip #7:Think from an investor’s
perspective
Venture investing obeys power law
Actual
Company Rank
Inve
stm
ent R
etur
n (m
ultip
le)
Perceived
10x
5x
1x
Venture Investing Tip #1:To a first approximation, a VC portfolio will only make money if your best company investment ends up being worth more than your whole fund.
This is why that $100m fund isn’t
interested in giving you
“only $500k”
• Even if you hit it out of the park and generated 10x return, that’s only a $5m return on a $100m fund.
• That’s 5% return.• Even worse, for a VC that’s 5% over the 7 year fund life
VCs can’t recycle money from old investments into new- they need to return the cash to their LPs.
• They are better off putting their money into a Dollarmite account.
• To make sense, they have to (over time) invest $10 million.. so they have a chance of returning $100 million.
This is why that $100m fund isn’t interested in giving you “only $500k”.
Startup Tip #8: Ask for..
But be damn sure to generate ROI on each dollar
Venture Tip #3:Double down on
winners
Venture Tip #4:THE CARDINAL RULE OF INVESTING ISDO NOT RUN OUT OF DRY POWDER
Venture Tip #5:Venture investing is LAST IN, FIRST OUT
Otherwise known as the “golden rule”
He who has the gold, rules.
Venture Tip #6:VCs cut their losers
quickly
Most VC investments last longer than the average
marriage
There is no active market for an
investor to sell their shares in private
companies.
Bad VCs will “actively manage”
their losers.
YouVC
Most startup founders lose control of their business the second they take the moneyStartup Tip #9
Do not raise money from venture capitalists
Startup Tip #10:If you do raise from venture
capitalists, make sure they have operating
experience.
Startup Tip #11:Most startup founders lose control of their business the second they take the money
How do startups lose control?
Competitive positionThey do not
get in a competitive
position.
Board ControlVCs use
information asymmetry
to get the deal they want
Startups do not understand the
deal documentation
Board Composition
In a startup, the board has one primary role:
TO HIRE AND FIRE THE CEO
• Hires and fires the CEO• Sets broad policies and objectives• Sounding board for CEO• Approves budgets• Ensuring the availability of adequate financial resources• Accounting to the stakeholders for the organization's performance• Setting the salaries and compensation of management
• Resolutions by simple majority in vote or circular resolution signed by all directors
Yes, boards do other things..
While the board’s job is not to run the company, it has effective control
.. it can fire the CEO who can appoint a new management team
Startup Tip #11:
If you lose control of the board, you lose control of the company.
XBoards should be an odd number, so you can make decisions
The best number for a small startup is 3
After that 5
• In a meeting of shareholders, an ordinary shareholder resolution is passed by simple majority (> 50% of votes).
• One share, one vote.
• So after a $2m financing at a $6m pre-money (25%), the founders would still determine the entire board.
VC Equity Everyone else
How directors are normally determined
How board control is immediately lost
Board of 5VCs choose 2Everyone else choose 2Independent 1
VCs have veto rights overIndependent, must beunaffiliated with company.
What’s the difference between a shopping trolley and Non-Executive Director?
You fill both with food & grog, but a shopping trolley has a mind of its own.
Refer to Startup Tip #5: The Golden Rule
Allocation of Returns on Exit
In a trade sale or wind up
Fully participating Preferred Liquidation Preference
The VC gets 2.5x their money
Then they share pro-rata inwhat’s left!
Let’s think this through:• Let’s say you are raising $2 million on a $6
million pre-money (25%).• If your company gets acquired, the VC gets $5
million off the top, then they share (they take 25% of whatever is left).
$5m exit (or less) $10m exit $40m exit
VC Proceeds
Everyone else
VC Equity Everyone else
$6.25m
$3.75m
$15m
$25m
If only that was the end of it• The Series B investor will want at least the same
deal (SEE: THE GOLDEN RULE)• Let’s say they invest $10m on a $30m pre-money
Series A Everyone elseSeries B
$30m exit (or less) $60m exit $100m exit
Series A
Series B
Everyone else $25m
$5m
$16.875m
$10.625m
$32.5m
$39.375m
$18.125m
$42.5m
I have seen companies with
hundreds of millions of liquidation preference.
Would you like to be a unicorn?
No sweat.
I will give you $100 million at a $1,000,000,000
valuation
$200m exit (or less) $300m exit $400m exit
VC Proceeds
Everyone else
VC Equity Everyone else
With a 2x participating
preferred liquidation preference
Fenwick & West publish a free quarterly report of what currently is “market”
Running out of cash is a disasterNOT RUN OUT OF CASH
Remember I talked about down rounds?
Antidilution
If you issue shares for cheaper, the VC
converts as if they bought at that price
THIS IS BRUTAL• Let’s say you are raising $2 million on a $6
million pre-money (25%).• Let’s say you then have a down round of $1m
at a $3m pre-money (25%)• The original VC still has 25% VC Equity Everyone else
$7.5m exit (or less) $10m exit $20m exit
Series A
Series B
Everyone else
$5m$2.5m
$1.25m
$5.625m$3.125m
6.25m
$8.125m
$5.625m
Greater Fool Theory
Greater Fool Theory
Dilution
Dilution
Dilution
Aaron’s done a phenomenal job of building a world class company, but would have owned significantly more at IPO if he hadn’t taken so many rounds.
Reality is, unprofitable wealth transfer transfer to venture capitalists
you lose your control, voting and veto
thresholds
Ratchets
If you issue shares for cheaper, the VC
converts as if they bought at that price
RatchetsSeries F ratchet converts at IPO to common at minimum($20, 90% of IPO Price)
Furthermore there was a second, time-based ratchet, that if the IPO didn’t occur before July 7 2015, then the Series F gained $3 in value per share every 360 days, paid quarterly.
IPO Price was $14, so Series F converted at $12.60 – 11.1% premium to Texas Pacific Group & co.
Ironically, Box’s share price opened at $20.20.
RatchetsDec 2013, Box raised $150,000,000 at $20 a share in Series F redeemable convertible preference shares.
RatchetsSeries F ratchet converts at IPO to common at minimum($20, 90% of IPO Price)
Furthermore there was a second, time-based ratchet, that if the IPO didn’t occur before July 7 2015, then the Series F gained $3 in value per share every 360 days, paid quarterly.
IPO Price was $14, so Series F converted at $12.60 – 11.1% premium to Texas Pacific Group & co.
Ironically, Box’s share price opened at $20.20.
Mark to MarketFollowing the greater fool theory, public markets participants started getting tapped for late stage rounds.
This has created a perverse situation where private companies now have floating prices
RatchetsSquare IPO price range $11-13
Priced at $9, under the range
Ratchet for Series E at $18.56 -> Giving Series E investors 2.06x shares
Ironically.. Square IPO pops opens at $11.05, peaks at $14.78
Fidelity makes out like a bandit!!!
Perversely, it’s in the interests of late stage ratchet investors to mark
down their investments once set
Who is the fool now?
IT SEEMS WE FORGOT THE GOLDEN RULE!!!
Why does every silicon valley startup want to be a unicorn?
Silicon valley companies love stock based compensation
In 2014, LinkedIn paid employees 14% of revenue in stock ($319 million) In 2015, LinkedIn paid employees 17% of revenue in stock ($510 million)(96% of operating income)
2014-5, Twitter has paid 39% of revenue in stock.
However employee stock options are most often issues with a strike price equal to fair market value ..
i.e. at time=0, the options are worthless.
The company needs to rise in value to gain value.
They’ll make you an offer
you can’t refuse.
Which is easy with a
fantasyvaluation.
Not so good in public marketsUnlike the fantasy land of unicorns, the stock price doesn’t always go up.
LNKD60%
Employee stock wiped out.
There are 174 unicorns valued collectively at $585 billion
Average # of tech IPOs per year2012 - 2014
36
# of tech IPOs in 1H 2015
23
7# of tech IPOs in 2H 2015
0# of tech IPOs in 1Q 2016
1# of tech IPOs in 2Q 2016
Venture Capitalists are constipated
No exit.
Unicorns are going extinct
The unicorn is dead, long live the cockroach
DO NOT RUN OUT OF CASH
Management Controls & VetosVetos over:
Business plansDeviation from plan
Share issuancesIPO
Winding upAsset sales
CommitteesHiring/Firing CEO
Employee Option PlanAcquisitions
Management Controls & VetosVetos over:
Spending over $100,000 (individually & in aggregate)Borrowing over $50,000
Hiring & Firing of CFO, CTO, COO, VP Sales, VP Marketing
Any transfer of sharesAny mortgage or security over $50,000
Any leases over $50,000Any remuneration of any executive over $100,000
Variation of any superannuation, incentive, share or bonus schemes
Any payments or transfer of assetsAny agreements signed ….
I know of a well known startup whose investors refused to approve any
travel budget greater than $0 so she could not fundraise
NO SOUP FOR YOU!!!
VENTURE CAPITALIST WINS!
Refer to Startup Tip #5: The Golden Rule
Luckily she paid out of her own pocket and found an investor that
helped do a reset.
Most startup founders lose control of their business the second they take the moneyDo not raise
money from venture capitalists
Sell something to Customers!
If you do raise from venture
capitalists, make sure they have operating
experience.
Competitive positionGet in a
competitive position
Board ControlRead and
understand every line of
your deal documentation
STARTUP CEOs
YOU HAVEONE JOB ANDONE JOB ONLY
DO NOT RUN OUT OF CASH!!!