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Occasional Policy Paper 10 Μάιος 2014

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Κώστας Λαπαβίτσας SOAS/RMFDaniel Munevar CADTM/RMF

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  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    1

    Occasional Policy

    Paper 10

    2014

  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    2

    1.

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  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    3

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  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    4

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  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    5

    , . - - . , 2013, - ( , ) " -". 2013, .

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    1 , http://www.pdma.gr/index.php/en/public-debt-strategy/public-debt/historical-characteristics/weighted-average-cost-maturity-of-annual-funding 2 , http://www.pdma.gr/index.php/en/public-debt-strategy/public-debt/historical-characteristics/weighted-average-maturity 3 , http://www.pdma.gr/index.php/en/public-debt-strategy/public-debt/maturity-profile-en

  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    6

    174% . 25% 2008 22% . 2014 - . - 27%, , , 2013, 35% 2007 70% .4 - , .

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  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    7

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  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    8

    . - . . , , . - - , "" . "" , - .

    3. M

    ' (Debt Sustainability Analysis, DSA) .5 . - :

    t+1 - t = (i t+1 - t+1 g t+1) t - t+1 tb t+1

    :

    i

    g

    ,

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    5 . Escolano, J. (2010) A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates, IMF Technical Note and Manual No. 2010/02 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    9

    , - .6 - , (Core Price Index, CPI), , - , 20142019.7 , - , - , (implicit interest rate), , .8

    , - . , - . , 2012 1,9% .9 , - , - , .10 , . , - .11

    , RMF. 1 RMF . - 2014 . , 138% 2019. RMF 147% . RMF .

    6 . World Economic Outlook Database (April 2014), http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/weodata/index.aspx 7 , , . 8 . 9 . Zettelmeyer, J., Trebesch, C., Gulati, M., (2012) The Greek Debt Exchange: An Autopsy, http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2012/09/The-Greek-Debt-Exchange-An-Autopsy.pdf 10 . 24 2014 2020. . Greece to meet 2013 asset sales target, upbeat on 2014 plan: privatization chief, available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/16/us-greece-privatisation-idUSBRE9BF0Y920131216 11 . Manesse, P., (2014) Privatizations and Debt: Lessons From The Greek Fiasco available at: http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/01/privatizations-and-debt-lessons-from-the-greek-fiasco/?utm_source=feedly#sthash.rKIXSznn.dpuf

  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    10

    -, . - .

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    : IMF (2014) World Economic Outlook .

    , "" "" - . "" , .

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    - - - -. , - 2014, - 50 .12

    12 . EU Said to Weigh Extending Greek Loans to 50 Years, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-05/eu-said-to-weigh-extending-greek-loans-to-50-years.html

  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    11

    . , . , - .13 , , - .

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    2 "" . 50 2014 2019, 50 , . , , : 2019 142%. 5% RMF. To

    13 (IMF Government Finance Statistics Manual, 2001) . . , , . , , .

  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    12

    - 2012 . 2014-2019 3,2%. - .

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  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    13

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  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    14

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    5 %

    : IMF (2014) World Economic Outlook .

    6, "-" , . RMF, "" - , , 4,8% 2015 2019.

    14 . , , . , . ' . , , "" 0,7% . 15 . . , , - . . . Stiglitz, J. (2010) Sovereign Debt: Notes on Theoretical Frameworks and Policy Analyses, B. Herman, J.A. Ocampo, and S. Spiegel (.), Overcoming Developing Country Debt Crises, , Oxford University Press.

  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    15

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  • RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014

    16

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