Roles of Social Science Research and Weather

Impacts

Julie Demuth

IWT Workshop: Using the WAS*IS ApproachJanuary 22, 2009

WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

Eve Gruntfest

The weather community and its partners are always looking to provide

better information in better ways to better serve the range of users of forecast and warning information.

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It’s why we’re all here!

What we know

What we don’t know• There’s little good, reliable, valid data-

based knowledge about…

– …people’s attitudes and behaviors regarding weather forecast information (including uncertainty!)

– …what IWT members know about people’s attitudes and behaviors and what they themselves think

– …how IWT members can and should work together better!

We’re all well intentioned!• We have LOTS anecdotal information … and

preconceived notions!

• We have LOTS of questions!

• What can we and can’t we generalize??

People gamble for money, on sports, etc. They definitely understand and

want odds.

No one understands the difference between a watch and warning.

OR… I spoke to a nursing home and everyone there knows the difference

between a watch and a warning.

False alarms are bad. People don’t trust us.

Does it really matter if we improve our Day 7 forecast by 1 degree?

Warnings are a dime a dozen.

Working on the puzzle• Need to develop a clearer

picture of the public arena of weather forecasting– People’s sources, perceptions,

interpretations, decision-making, uses, roles of various experiences, roles of weather versus other factors, etc.

Pieces of the

puzzle!

• We face moving targets!

We ALL have so much to learn … from members of the public and from each other!

Moving forward…• Tremendous amount of knowledge —

concepts, methodologies, theories, tools — from the social sciences that can and should be integrated in partnership with meteorology!– Such as communication, sociology, psychology,

economics, decision science, geography, anthropology

– We ALL have important roles to play! Provide effective forecast and warning information people actually want and use rather than what we

think they do (or should) want and use

@ The NationalWeather Center

SSWIM TeamUniversity of Oklahoma

Sponsored by University of Oklahoma &

National Oceanic &

Atmospheric Administration

Funds ~50% NOAA & 50% U of Oklahoma

Three main goals• To weave social science into the activities of the

National Weather Center & elsewhere

• To earn a reputation as the center of social science research & practice in weather & climate work in Norman, in the U.S. & internationally  

• To reflect & actualize the NOAA vision “to make the best social & economic decisions” & mission “to meet our Nation’s economic, social, & environmental needs.”

Weaving Social Science into Climate & Weather Research & Practice

NCAR Societal Impacts Program (SIP)

• …to improve the societal gains from weather forecasting by infusing social science research, methods, and capabilities into the planning, execution, and analysis of weather information, applications, and research directions.

• 4 focal areas– community development & support– Information resources– primary research– Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS)

Examples of Societal Impacts Program research

• Sources, perceptions, uses, and value of weather forecasts

• Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts• Broadcast meteorologists’ preferences for conveying

uncertainty and perceptions of public’s needs and wants

• Examining warning decisions in extreme weather events

A vision for the future There are challenges but opportunities!

• Need vision, optimism, ideas, entrepreneurs to pave the way forward

• Need commitment of people, support, resources

• Need to think long term and big … not going to find 1 solution or find solutions immediately

• Social science is scientific — a HARD science — and it’s all a process of learning and discovery

The essentials• Partnerships among practitioners, broadcast

meteorologists, research meteorologists, operational meteorologists, social scientists, policy makers, government officials … LOCAL and FEDERAL

• Interest and willingness to work together, to listen, learn, exchange ideas … END-TO-END-TO-END!

• PASSION for this work, for changing the ways we do business … to save lives and property! This workshop is a great step in the

right direction … more to follow today!