siyaseyya 43-44 final - caus.org.lb · ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا مﻮﻠﻌﻠﻟ...

٩

(١)

[email protected]. (*)

John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton Books, 2000); Stuart (١) Kaufman, Richard Little and William Wohlforth, eds., The Balance of Power in World History (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007), and Richard Little, The Balance of Power in InternationalRelations (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999).

أحمد محّمد أبو زيد(*)

محاضر في العلوم السياسية جامعة الجزيرة، دبي،

ومدير األبحاث في المعهد الدولي للدبلوماسية الثقافية، دبي.

المجلة العربية للعلوم السياسية

١٠

(Zakaria) (Great Powers) (Walt) (٢) (Paul)(Pape)(٣) (Soft Balance)

(٤)

(٥)

Fareed Zakaria, The Post American World (New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 2008). (٢) Stephen Walt, Taming American Power: The Global Response to U. S. Primacy (New York: W. W. (٣)Norton and Co., 2005). Michael Brown, Owen Cote and Sean Lynn-Jones, eds., Primacy and Its Discontents: American (٤)Power and International Stability (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2009).Stephen Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1987). (٥)

أحمد محّمد أبو زيد

١١

(٦)

(Primacy) (٧)

(٨) (٩)

(٦)

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, «Interview on NBC-TV,» The Today Show with Matt Lauer (19 February 1998), <http://secretary.state.gov/www/statements/1998/980219a.html>, andWalter Isaacson, «Madeleine's War,» Time (9 May 1999), <http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,24446,00.html>. Françis Fukuyama, The End of History and Last Man Ideology (New York: Free Press, 1992), and (٧) William Wohlforth, «The Stability of A Unipolar World,» International Security, vol. 24, no. 2(Spring 1999), pp. 5-41. Benedikt Schoenborn, Barbra Zanchetta and Jussi Hanimaki, eds., Transatlantic Relations since (٨) 1945: An Introduction (New York: Routledge, 2012); Tod Lindberg, Beyond Paradise and Power: Europe, America, and the Future of a Troubled Partnership (New York: Routledge, 2005), and Stephen Walt, «The Ties That Fray: Why Europe and America are Drifting Apart,» The NationalInterest, no. 54 (Winter 1998-1999), pp. 3-11.

Samuel Huntington, «The Lonely Superpower,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 78, no. 2 (March-April 1999), (٩)pp. 35-49.


١٢

(١٠)

(١١)

(١٢) NextIsm

(١٣)

Barry Posen, «The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict,» Survival, vol. 35, no. 1 (Spring 1993), (١٠)pp. 27-47.

Joseph (١١)

Nye: «The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 89, no. 6 (November - December 2010), pp. 2-12; «The Decline of America's Soft Power: Why Washington Should Worry,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 83, no. 3 (May-June 2004), pp. 16-20; Fareed Zakaria, «The Future of American Power: How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 3 (May-June 2008), pp. 18-43; Joshua Kurlantzick, «The Decline of American Soft Power,» Current History, no. 686 (December 2005), pp. 419-423, and Stephen Walt, «Beyond Bin Laden: Reshaping U. S. Foreign Policy,» International Security, vol. 26, no. 3(Winter 2001-2002), pp. 65-80.Stephen Walt, «Building Up New Bogymen,» Foreign Policy, no. 106 (Spring 1997), pp. 177-189. (١٢)

Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and Remaking of (١٣)

World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996); Bernard Lewis: What Went Wrong: Western Impact and Middle Eastern Response (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001), «Islam and the West,» in: Edward Ingram, ed., National and International Politics in the Middle East: Essays in Honour of Elit Kedourie (London: Cass, 1986); Fred Holliday, Islam and the Myth of Confrontation: Religion and Politics in the Middle East (London: I.B. Tauris, 1995), and JohnEsposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality? (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995).


١٣

(١٤)

(Balance of Threat)

(١٤)

Rebekka Friedman, Kevork Oskanian and Roman Pacheco Pard, eds., After Liberalism?: The Future of Liberalism in International Relations (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013); Charles Krauthammer, Democratic Realism: An American Foreign Policy for a Unipolar World (Washington, DC: AEI Press, 2005); Gary Dorrien, Imperial Designs: Neoconservatism and the New Pax Americana (New York: Routledge, 2004); Amy Chua, World on Fire: How Exporting Free Markets and Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability (New York: Anchor Books, 2004); Michael Cox, G. John Ikenberry and Takashi Inoguchi, American Democracy Promotion: Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts(NewYork: OxfordUniversityPress, 2000); Robert Kagan and William Kristol, eds., Present Dangers: Crisis and Opportunity in America’s Foreign and Defense Policy (San Francisco: Encounter Books, 2000); Miriam Elman, ed., Paths to Peace: Is Democracy the Answer? (Boston: MA: MIT Press, 1997); Condoleezza Rice, «Promoting the National Interest,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 79, no. 10 (January-February 2000), pp. 45-62; Mark McClelland, «Exporting Virtue: Neoconservatism, Democracy Promotion, and the End of History,» International Journal of Human Rights, vol. 15, no. 4 (April 2011), pp. 520-531; Oz Hassan and Jason Ralph, «Democracy Promotion and Human Rights in US Foreign Policy,» International Journal of Human Rights, vol. 15, no. 4 (April 2011), pp. 509-5019. Katerina Dalacoura: «US Democracy Promotion in the Arab Middle East since 11 September 2001: A Critique,» International Affairs, vol. 81, no. 5 (October 2005), pp. 963-979; Michael McFaul, «Democracy Promotion as a World Value,» Washington Quarterly, vol. 28, no. 1 (Winter 2004), pp. 147-163; Paula Dobriansky and Thomas Carothers, «Democracy Promotion: Explaining the Bush Administration Position,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 82, no. 3 (May-June 2003), pp. 141-145; William I. Robinson, «Globalization, the World System, and» Democracy Promotion «in U. S. Foreign Policy,» Theory and Society, vol. 25, no. 5 (October 1996), pp. 615-665, andLarry Diamond, «Promoting Democracy,» Foreign Policy, no. 87 (Summer 1992), pp. 25-46.

Robert Jervis, «Why the Bush Doctrine Cannot Be Sustained,» Political Science Quarterly, vol. 120, no. 3 (Fall 2005), pp. 351-377; Robert Jervis, «Understanding the Bush Doctrine,» Political Science Quarterly, vol. 118, no. 3 (Fall 2003), pp. 365-388; Michael Boyle, «Utopianism and the Bush ForeignPolicy,» Cambridge Review of International Affairs, vol. 17, no. 1 (January 2004), pp. 81- 103; Gideon Rose, «Democracy Promotion and American Foreign Policy: A Review Essay,» International Security, vol. 25, no. 3 (Winter 2000-2001), pp. 186-203; John Mearsheimer, «TheFalse Promise of International Institutions,» International Security, vol. 19, no. 3 (Winter 1994-

1995), pp. 5-49, and Joseph M. Grieco, «Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism,» International Organization, vol. 42, no. 3 (Summer 1988),pp. 485-507.


١٤

(Coercive Diplomacy) (Preemptive War) (Preventative War) (١٥)

(١٦) (١٧)

Walt, «Beyond Bin Laden: Reshaping U. S. Foreign Policy,» pp. 65-80. (١٥) «Who Will Lead the World: Shifting Alignments in World Public Opinion?,» Brookings Briefing (6 (١٦) April 2006), <http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2005/4/06diplomacy/20050406.pdf>, and«BBC Poll: Germany Most Popular Country in the World,» BBC (23 May 2013), <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22624104>.

(١٧)

Stefan Halper, The Beijing Consensus: How China’s Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century (New York: Basic Books, 2010); Robert Kaplan, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power (New York: Random House, 2010); Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order (New York: The Penguin Press, 2009); Michael Beckley, «China’s Century?: Why America’s Edge Will Endure,» International Security, vol. 36, no. 3 (Winter 2011-2012), pp. 41-78; Randall Schweller and Xiaoyu Pu, «After Unipolarity: China’s Visions of International Order in an Era of U. S. Decline,» International Security, vol. 36, no. 1 (Summer 2011), pp. 41-72, and John Ikenberry, «The Rise of China and the Future of theWest,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 1 (January-February 2008), pp. 23-37.


١٥

(١٨) (Fluctuating Hegemony)

(The Pose American World)

(١٩) (٢٠) (Perseverance) (Adaptation) (Adjustment) (٢١)

Stephen Walt, «Keeping the World «Off-Balance»: Self-Restraint and U. S. Foreign Policy,» in: (١٨) John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002), pp. 121-154, and John Ikenberry and Stephen Walt, «Offshore Balancing or International Institutions?: The Way Forward to U. S. Foreign Policy,» Brown Journal of WorldAffairs, vol. 14, no. 1 (Fall-Winter 2007), pp. 13-23.Zakaria, The Post American World, pp. 19-25. (١٩)

(٢٠)

Richard Haass, «The Age of Nonpolarity: What Will Follow (٢١)

U. S. Dominance,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 3 (May-June 2008), pp. 44-56.


١٦

(٢٢) (Unrivaled)

(Power Shifting)(Balance of Capabilities) (٢٣)

(Waltz)

(٢٤) (Prolonged Political

Dominance)

Fareed Zakaria, «The Future of American Power: How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest,» (٢٢)Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 3 (May-June 2008), pp. 18-43.

(٢٣)

Ronald Tamen [et. al], Power Transitions: Strategies For the 21st Century (New York: Seven Bridges Press, 2000); Steve Chan, China, the U. S., and the Power-Transition Theory: A Critique (London and New York: Routledge, 2008); Jack Levy, «Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China,» in: Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng, eds., China's Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2008), pp. 11-33; John Ikenberry, «Power and Liberal Order: America’s Postwar World Order in Transition,» International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, vol. 5, no. 2 (May 2005), pp. 133-152; Ronald Tammen and Jack Kugler, «Power Transition and China-US Conflicts,» Chinese Journal of International Politics, vol. 1, no. 1(Summer 2006), pp. 35-55, and Douglas Lemke, «The Continuation of History: Power Transition Theory and the End of the ColdWar,» Journal of Peace Research, vol. 34, no. 1 (February 1997), pp. 23-36. Zakaria, The Post American World, pp. 1-5, and Kenneth Waltz,«The Emerging Structure of (٢٤)International Politics,» International Security, vol. 18, no. 2 (Autumn 1993), pp. 44-79.


١٧

(٢٥)(Ikenberry)(Nye)

(٢٦) (Booms and Busts)

(Duopoly) (Waltz) (٢٧)

Joseph Nye, Soft Power: The Means To Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004), (٢٥) and John Ikenberry, After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Orderafter Major Wars (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001).Zakaria, Ibid., p. 2. (٢٦)

Jim O'Neill: BRICs and Beyond (New York: Goldman Sachs Global Economic Group, 2007); «Building Better Global Economic BRICs,» Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, no. 66 (30 November 2011); Leslie Elliott Armijo, «The BRICS Countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) As Analytical Category: Mirage or Insight?,» Asian Perspective, vol. 31, no. 4 (2007), pp. 7-42; Dominic Wilson, Alex Kelston and Swarnali Ahmed, «Is this the «BRICs Decade»?,» Goldman Sachs BRIC’S Monthly, vol. 10, no. 3 (20 May 2010); Tetsufumi Yamakawa, Swarnali Ahmed and Alex Kelston, «BRICs Lead the Global Recovery,» Goldman Sachs BRIC’S Monthly, vol. 9, no. 5 (29 May 2009); Markus Jaeger, «BRICs as Emerging International Financial Powers,» Deutsche Bank Research (27 January 2010); Jack Goldstone: «Out with the BRICS, Time for the TIMBIS,» Mercatus Center (George Mason University), Working Paper; no. 11-04 (February 2011), and«Rise of the TIMBIs,» Foreign Policy (2 December 2011), <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/02/rise_of_the_timbis>. Zakaria, The Post American World, p. 4, and Kenneth Waltz, «The Stability of a Bipolar World,» (٢٧)Deadalus, vol. 93, no. 3 (Summer 1964), pp. 881-901.


١٨

(Binary Phenomenon) (٢٨)

(Anti-American (Keohane) World) (٢٩)(Kagan)

(٣٠) (Ceding) (٣١)

Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979). (٢٨) Robert Keohane and Peter Katzenstein, eds., Anti-Americanisms in World Politics (Ithaca, NY: (٢٩)Cornell University Press, 2007).Zakaria, The Post American World, pp. 219-226. (٣٠)

(٣١)


١٩

(٣٢)

(٣٣) (Rebalance) (Wohlforth) (Brooks) (Off-balance)

(٣٤)

John Ikenberry, Michael Mastanduno and (٣٢)

William Wohlforth, eds., International Relations Theory and the Consequences of Unipolarity (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 2011); Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth, eds., World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2008); Joseph Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004); Stephen Brooks, «U. S. Strategy in A Unipolar World,» in: John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002), pp. 98-118; Charles Krauthammer: «The Unipolar Moment,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 70, no. 1 (Winter 1990-1991), pp. 21-33, and «The Unipolar MomentRevisited,» The National Interest, no. 57 (Winter 2002-2003), pp. 5-17. Stanley Hoffmann, Gulliver Unbound: America's Imperial Temptation and the War in Iraq (Lanham: (٣٣)Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 2004). William Wohlforth, «Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War,» World Politics, (٣٤) vol. 61, no. 1 (January 2009), pp. 28-57; Stephen Walt, «Alliances in a Unipolar World,» World=


٢٠

(Bipolarity)(Structural Realism)

(Multilateral(Ikenberry) Institutions) (٣٥)

Politics, vol. 61, no. 1 (January 2009), pp. 86-120; Robert Shapiro, Yaeli Bloch-Elkon and Jack Snyder, «Free Hand Abroad, Divide and Rule at Home,» World Politics, vol. 61, no. 1 (January 2009), pp. 155-187; Robert Jervis, «Unipolarity: A Structural Perspective,» World Politics, vol. 61, no. 1 (January 2009), pp. 188-213; Stephen Walt, «Keeping the World «Off-Balance»: Self-Restraint and U. S. Foreign Policy,» in: John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance ofPower (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2002), pp. 127-133. John Ikenberry: «Is American Multilateralism in Decline?,» Perspectives on Politics, vol. 1, no. 3 (٣٥) (September 2003), pp. 533-550, «Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of AmericanPostwar Order,» International Security, vol. 23, no. 3 (Winter 1998-1999), pp. 43-78.

=


٢١

(Institutions Glue)

(٣٦)

(٣٧) (٣٨)

(٣٩) (٤٠)

Walt, «Keeping the World «Off-Balance»: Self-Restraint and U. S. Foreign Policy,» pp. 123-126.. (٣٦) Eric Nordlinger, Isolationism Reconfigured: American Foreign Policy for a New Century (New (٣٧)Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1996).. Jonathan Wilkenfeld [et al.], «Mediating International Crises: Cross-National and Experimental (٣٨)Perspectives,» Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 47, no. 3 (June 2003), pp. 279-301.

Steven Miller, «The End of Unilateralism or Unilateralism Redux?,» The Washington Quarterly, (٣٩) vol. 25, no. 1 (Winter 2002), pp. 15-29, and John Ikenberry, «Is American Multilateralism inDecline?,» Perspectives on Politics, vol. 1, no. 3 (September 2003), pp. 533-550.

Stephen Brooks, John Ikenberry and William (٤٠)

Wohlforth: «Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment,» International Security,=


٢٢

(Isolism) (Second Rank) (Great Powers)

(Counter (Triumphalism)Alliances)

(٤١) (Collective Goods)

vol. 37, no. 3 (Winter 2012-2013), pp. 7-51; William Greider; Come Home, America: The Rise and Fall (and Redeeming Promise) of Our Country (New York: Rodale Inc., 2009); Robert Art, «Geopolitics Updated: The Strategy of Selective Engagement,» International Security, vol. 23, no. 3 (Winter 1998-1999), pp. 79-113; Barry Posen and Andrew Ross, «Competing Version of U. S. Grand Strategy,» International Security, vol. 21, no. 3 (Winter 1996-1997), pp. 5-53, and Eugene Gholz, Daryl Press and Harvey Sapolsky, «Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in theFace of Temptation,» International Security, vol. 21, no. 4 (Spring 1997), pp. 5-48.

(٤١)

Robert Keohane, ed., Neorealism and Its Critics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986); David Baldwin, ed., Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), and John Ruggie, «The False Premise of Realism,» International Security, vol. 20, no. 1 (Summer1995), pp. 62-70.

=


٢٣

(٤٢) (Aggressiveness) (Power) (Offensive Power)(Proximity)

(Offensive Intentions)

(٤٣) (Bandwagon)

(٤٤)

Walt, The Origins of Alliances. (٤٢) Huntington: «The Lonely Superpower,» pp. 35-49, and «Why International Primacy Matters,» (٤٣)International Security, vol. 17, no. 4 (Spring 1993), pp. 68-83.

John J. Mearsheimer: «The Gathering Storm: China's Challenge to US Power in Asia,» The Chinese (٤٤) Journal of International Politics, vol. 3, no. 4 (Winter 2010), pp. 381-396, and «The Future of theAmerican Pacifier,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 80, no. 5 (September-October 2001), pp. 46-61.


٢٤

(Kennedy) (Gilpin) (Mearsheimer) (٤٥)

(٤٦) (Soft Balance)

(٤٧)(Lieber and Alexander)

Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and (٤٥) Remaking of World Order; Paul Kennedy, The Rise and fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500-2000 (New York: Random House, 1987), and Robert Gilpin, Warand Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981). John Ikenberry, Michael Mastanduno and William Wohlforth, International Relations Theory and (٤٦) the Consequences of Unipolarity (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011); Christopher Layne, «The Unipolar Illusion Revisited,» International Security, vol. 31, no. 2 (Fall 2006), pp. 4-71; Robert Jervis, «The Remaking of A Unipolar World,» Washington Quarterly, vol. 29, no. 3 (Summer 2006), pp. 7-19; Kenneth Waltz, «Structural Realism after the Cold War,» International Security, vol. 25, no. 1 (Summer 2000), pp. 5-41, and William Wohlforth, «The Stability of AUnipolar World,» International Security, vol. 24, no. 2 (Spring 1999), pp. 5-41. Brown, Cote and Lynn-Jones, eds., Primacy and Its Discontents: American Power and International (٤٧)Stability.


٢٥

(٤٨) (Pape) (UNISON) (٤٩)

(٥٠) (٥١)

(٥٢) (Mr. Big) (Joffe) (٥٣)

Keir Lieber and Gerard Alexander, «Waiting for Balancing: Why the World is not Pushing Back,» (٤٨)International Security, vol. 30, no. 1 (Summer 2005), pp. 109-111. Robert Pape, «Soft Balancing against the United States,» International Security, vol. 30, no. 1 (٤٩)(Summer 2005), pp. 7-45. Thazha Varkey Paul, «Soft Balancing in the Age of U. S. Primacy,» International Security, vol. 30, (٥٠)no. 1 (Summer 2005), pp. 72-108.Pape, Ibid., pp. 8-9. (٥١) Walt, «Keeping the World «Off-Balance»: Self-Restraint and U. S. Foreign Policy,» pp. 121-154, (٥٢)and Walt, Taming American Power: The Global Response to U. S. Primacy..

Douglas Webber, «Regionalism in Europe and Asia (٥٣)

after the Cold War,» in: Thomas Christiansen, Emil Kirchner and Philomena Murray, eds., The Palgrave Handbook of EU-Asia Relations (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), pp. 93-107; Vinod Aggarwal and Min Gyo Koo, «An Institutional Path: Community Building in Northeast Asia,» in: G. John Ikenberry and Chung-in Moon, eds., The United States and Northeast Asia: Debates, Issues, and New Order (Lanham; MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2008), pp. 285-307; Peter J. Katzenstein, A World of Regions: Asia and Europe in the American Imperium (Ithaca,=


٢٦

(٥٤)

(٥٥)

(٥٦)

NY: Cornell University Press, 2005); Merg Rithmire, «China’s «New Regionalism» SubnationalAnalysis in Chinese Political Economy,» World Politics, vol. 66, no. 1 (January 2014), pp. 165-

194; Mitsuru Kitano, «China's Foreign Strategy,» Asia-Pacific Review, vol. 18, no. 2 (December 2011), pp. 37-59; Alex Vines and Bereni Oruitemekai, «India’s Engagement with the AfricanIndian Ocean Rim States,» South African Journal of International Affairs, vol. 14, no. 2 (Winter-

Spring 2007), pp. 111-123, and Karen Ruth Adams, «New Great Powers: Who Will They Be, and How Will They Rise?,» paper presented at: The Annual Meeting of the International StudiesAssociation, Le Centre Sheraton Hotel, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, 17March 2004.

Pape, «Soft Balancing against the United States;» Robert Art, «Correspondence: Striking the (٥٤) Balance,» International Security, vol. 30, no. 3 (Winter 2005-2006), pp. 177-185, and Josef Joffe,«Who's Afraid of Mister Big?,» National Interest, no. 64 (Summer 2001), pp. 43-52.

Edward Conard and Fareed Zakaria, «How to Fix America: Which Tools Should Washington (٥٥) Use?,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 92, no. 3 (May-June 2013); Stephen Walt: «Top 10 Lessons of theIraq War,» Foreign Policy (March 2012), <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/20/ top_ten_lessons_of_the_iraq_war?page=0,0>; «The End of the American Era,» National Interest, no. 116 (November-December 2011), pp. 6-16, and «The Myth of American Exceptionalism,»Foreign Policy (November 2011), <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/the_myth_of_american_exceptionalism?page=0,0>.Stephen Walt, «The Bad Old Days are Back,» Foreign Policy (2 May 2014), <http://www. (٥٦)foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/05/02/the_bad_old_days_are_back_china_us_russia_power_ politics_realism>, and Andranik Migranyan, «Putin Triumphs in Ukraine,» The National Interest (6 March 2014), <http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/putin-triumphs-ukraine-10009>; Peera

=

=


٢٧

(٥٧) (Zartman) (Ripe Moment) (New Orders) (Reverse) (Brinkmanship Crisis)

Chaoroenvattananukual, «The Ukrainian Crisis: A Sign of the End of American Unipolarity?,»The World Politics Journal (8 March 2014), <http://worldpoliticsjournal.com/2014/03/ukrainian-

crisis-sign-end-american-unipolarity/>; Max Pei, «America's Pivot Paradox: Ukraine, Syria, andBeyond,» The National Interest (24 April 2014), <http://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas- pivot-paradox-ukraine-syria-beyond-10306>; Kamilia Lahrichi, «Arab Spring bring Opportunitiesto China,» Your Middle East (14 August 2013), <http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/business/arab- uprisings-bring-opportunities-to-china_17077>; Robert Lawrence Kuhn and Florence Eid-Oakden, «China Carving a Role in Middle Eastern Affairs,» South China Morning Post (20 December 2013),<http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1386790/china-carving-role-middle- eastern-affairs>; Massoud Hayoun, «Strange Bedfellows: China’s Middle Eastern Inroads,» WorldAffairs Journal (January-February 2013), <http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/strange- bedfellows-china%E2%80%99s-middle-eastern-inroads>, and Andy Polk, «China: A Major Powerin the Middle East?,» The Diplomat (1 April 2014), <http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/china-a-major-power-in-the-middle-east/>.

Art, «Correspondence: Striking the Balance,» pp. 177-178. (٥٧)

=


٢٨

(Lebow)

The National Interest (Unhinged Power)

(٥٨)

(٥٩)

John Mearsheimer, «America Unhinged,» The National Interest, no. 129 (January-February 2014), (٥٨)pp. 9-30.

(٥٩)


٢٩

(Genocide)

(٦٠)

(٦١) (٦٢)

(٦٣)

(٦٠)

(٦١)

John Holmes, «Beware the «Thucydides Trap» Trap»,» The Diplomat Magazine (13 June 2013), (٦٢) <http://thediplomat.com/2013/06/beware-the-thucydides-trap-trap/>, and Wei Zongyou, «China-U.S. Relations: The Myth of the Thucydides Trap,» The Diplomat Magazine (30 March 2014), <http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/china-u-s-relations-the-myth-of-the-thucydides-trap/>. John J. Mearsheimer: «The Gathering Storm: China's Challenge to US Power in Asia,» The Chinese (٦٣) Journal of International Politics, vol. 3, no. 4 (Winter 2010), pp. 381-396; «China's Unpeaceful Rise,» Current History, vol. 105, no. 690 (April 2006), pp. 160-162; Jianyong Yuea, «PeacefulRise of China: Myth or Reality?,» International Politics, vol. 45, no. 4 (July 2008), pp. 439- 456, Zeng Bijian, «China’s Peaceful Rise to Great-Power Status,» Foreign Affairs, vol, 84, no. 5=


٣٠

(٦٤)

(Strategic Restraint)

(٦٥)

(September-October 2005), pp. 18-24, and Alastair Iain Johnston, «Is China A Status Quo Power?,»International Security, vol. 27, no. 4 (Spring 2003), pp. 5-56.Mearsheimer, «America Unhinged,» pp. 11-12. (٦٤) John Ikenberry and Stephen Walt, «Offshore Balancing or International Institutions?: The Way (٦٥) Forward for U. S. Foreign Policy,» The Brown Journal of World Affairs, vol. 14, no. 1 (Fall-Winter2007), pp. 13-23.

=


٣١

(٦٦)

(Polarity) (Bipolarity)

(٦٧) (Multipolarity)

(٦٦)

Kenneth Waltz, «The Stability of a Bipolar World,» Daedalus, vol. 93, no. 3 (Summer 1964), (٦٧)pp. 881-901.


٣٢

(٦٨)

(٦٩)

(٧٠)

(٦٨)

Karl Deutsch and David Singer, «Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability,» World Politics, vol. 16, no. 3 (April 1964), pp. 390-406; Richard Rosecrance, «Bipolarity, Multipolarity, and the Future,» Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 10, no. 3 (September 1966), pp. 413-27; Randall Schweller; Deadly Imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998); William Wohlforth, «The Stability of A Unipolar World,» International Security, vol. 24, no. 2 (Spring 1999), pp. 5-41, and Richard Haass, «The Age of Nonpolarity: What Will Follow U. S. Dominance,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 87,no. 3 (May-June 2008), pp. 44-56. Thomas Christensen and Jack Snyder, «Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns (٦٩)in Multipolarity,» International Organization, vol. 44, no. 3 (Spring 1990), pp. 137-168. Kenneth Waltz: «The Emerging Structure of International Politics,» International Security, vol. 18, (٧٠) no. 2 (Autumn 1993), pp. 44-79; «Structural Realism after the Cold War,» International Security, vol. 25, no. 1 (Summer 2000), pp. 5-41, and «Intimations of Multipolarity,» in: Birthe Hansen andBertel Heurlin, eds., The New World Order (London: Macmillan, 2000), pp. 1-18.


٣٣


٣٤

(٧١)

(٧١)


٣٥

(Democratic Peace Theory)

(٧٢)

Edward Mansfield (٧٢)

and Jack Snyder, Electing To Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go To War (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005), John Owen, Liberal Peace, Liberal War: American Politics and International Security (Ithica, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997); K. J. Holst, «International Relations Theory and Domestic War in the Third World: The Limits of Relevance,» in: Stephanie Neuman, ed., International Relations Theory and the Third World (New York: Saint Martin’s Press, 1998), pp. 37-62; Fareed Zakaria, «The Rise of Illiberal Democracy,» Foreign Affairs, vol. 76, no. 6 (November-December 1997), pp. 22-43; Raymond Cohen, «Pacific Unions: A Reappraisal of the Theory That Democracies Do Not Go to War with Each Other,» Review of International Studies, vol. 20, no. 3 (July 1994), pp. 207-223; Christopher Layne, «Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace,» International Security, vol. 19, no. 2 (Autumn 1994), pp. 5-49; Jack Levy: «Domestic Politics and War,» The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, vol. 18, no. 4 (Spring 1988), pp. 653-73, and David Spiro, «The Insignificance of the Liberal Peace,» InternationalSecurity, vol. 19, no. 2 (Autumn 1994), pp. 50-86.


٣٦

(٧٣)

(Possible)(Inventible)(Relative Gains)(Self-interest)(Actors) (Transnational)

John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell (٧٣) University Press, 2002), and Stephen Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UniversityPress, 1987).


٣٧

□

عن مركز دراسات الوحدة العربية صدر حديثاً

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من فريق فيه ساهم الــذي الجماعي، العمل هذا يسعى

بإشراف االخــتــصــاص، ذوي مــن الــعــرب والــخــبــراء الباحثين

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لتحقيق ككل المجتمع مع السياسية السلطة تفاعل أهمية

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سواء االجتماعي أو التعليمي أو تمكين المرأة وتحريرها من

المجتمع؛ في وموقعها دورهــا تحدد التي النمطية الصورة

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الديمقراطي التحول وإشكالية االنتقالية المرحلة مخاض أخيراً الكتاب ويتناول وحلها. إدارتها وطرائق

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مجتمع تسوده أغلبية شبابية.

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