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Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka

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Page 1: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Status of the Fast-Track on Rice – Sri Lanka

Page 2: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Fast-Track Report On:

Modeling the impacts of a variable and changing climate on

rice agricultural systems in one of the major rice

producing district (Kurunegala) in Sri Lanka.

Page 3: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Name of Investigator(s) & Institutions

Dr. S.P. Nissanka, Crop Modeling, UoP

Dr. W.M.W. Weerakoon, Agronomist, FCRDI, DoA (Co-PI)

Dr. B.V.R. Punyawardhene, Agro-Meteorologist, DoA (Co-PI)

Dr. R.M. Herath, Senior Agricultural Economist, SEPC, DoA (Investigator)

Dr. Asha S. Karunaratne, Crop Modeling, Sabaragamuwa University (Investigator)

Ms. Punya Delpitiya, Crop Modeling, DoA, (Investigator)

Mr.Samal Dharmarathne, Crop Modeling, KIT (Investigator)

Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator)

Climate-team of the FECT

Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice. Other members identified in the

project also assisted the fast-tract activities on rice.

Page 4: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

District wise Performance of the rice Ssctor of Sri Lanka

Zone and Districts Gross Extent Production (mt)

Harvested (hectares)

Maha Yala Maha Yala Total

2009/2010 2010

Wet Zone

Colombo 4763 2656 14190 7244 21434

Gampaha 12464 7810 36560 24475 61035

Kalutara 15289 11935 45245 29527 74772

Galle 17142 11685 44078 26912 70990

Matara 15811 15467 45455 41703 87158

Kegalle 8331 7209 29589 19222 48811

Ratnapura 13485 11449 38034 31922 69956

Kandy 13826 10103 37943 28502 66445

Nuwara Eliya 5583 2960 13007 7373 20380

Badulla 26988 12665 99203 48224 147427

Dry /Intermediate Zones

Kurunegala 68023 56386 274343 225159 499502

Puttalam 14236 9436 48075 28608 76683

Matale 20088 10103 81175 41370 122545

Moneragala 27360 13884 118331 57277 175608

Jaffna (b) 8703 - 20117 - 20117

Kilinochchi(c) - 1468 - 3360 3360

Mannar 8093 600 41755 2240 43995

Mullaitivu 2144 1150 10753 4207 14960

Vavuniya 4830 827 24457 3685 28142

Anuradhapura 81063 22808 320937 89625 410562

Polonnaruwa 60301 58300 284628 262738 547366

Ampara 69840 59196 358274 275913 634187

Batticaloa 54329 20894 193274 73906 267180

Trincomalee 26521 13059 106727 58879 165606

Hambantota 26012 24244 117793 108332 226125

Mahaweli 'H' Area 25012 15824 145263 79097 224360

Udawalawe 13068 14317 80361 91555 171916

Sri Lanka 643305 416435 2629567 1671055 4300622

(a) The cultivation year comprise Maha ( September/October- march/april)

and Yala (April/May - August/ September)

(b) No Cultivation during Yala season

( c) No cultivation during Maha season

Page 5: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Kurunegala district was selected

for the fast tract since it is one of

the leading rice producing district

and where the Rice Research and

Development Institute is located

Page 6: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

CLIMATE:

BASELINE AND

FUTURE SCENARIO

Page 7: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Time Series plots- Maximum/ Minimum Temperature

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Daily Minimum Temperature time series for 30 years- Batalagoda

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Page 8: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Time Series plots- Rainfall

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Page 9: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Comments

Data Acquisition:

Datasets for Sunshine hours, Minimum temperature , maximum temperature and precipitation observed at the

Meteorological station in Batalagoda (lat- 7.51N, lon- 80.28E) in the Kurunegala District were obtained.

Quality Control of Data:

All four datasets were checked for data gaps and the percentage of missing observations from 1980/1/1 –

2010/12/31 was found to be less than 1% in precipitation, minimum/ maximum temperature datasets and less than

3% in sunshine hours dataset. All four datasets were then checked for any unusual/ implausible observations (over

3 x rms anomalies) and such identified observations were removed from the dataset. Other particularly high

outliers were checked with a neighboring station (Kurunegala) and retained if consistent. After that gaps were

filled as instructed in the AgMIP handbook (page 10 of Draft: November 5, 2012).

Obtaining Solar Radiation:

Since only sunshine hours were available for the duration, using FAO , 1998 (#56: irrigation and drainage paper

page 50) it was converted into energy from (MJ/m2 ).

Putting it into AgMIP formats:

Then a .AgMIP file for Batalagoda was created using available data and the file was run through the R script

provided by the AgMIP climate team. Baseline (1980- 2010) and future (2040- 2070) datasets were used in

plotting graphs for precipitation & Maximum/ Minimum temperatures.

Page 10: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

Tmax Tmin Average

1980-2010

2040-20701.57

1.65

1.61

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

1980-2010 2040-2070

Temperature Rainfall

Page 11: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

CROP MODELING : Rice

Page 12: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Progressive improvement of Model Calibration and

Validation

Stage 1: (March 11)

Varieties : Bg 300, Bg 357, Bg 358, At 308

Experimental date: One season -2010 Yala

Genetic coefficient: Manually calculated

Stage 2: After ICRISAT Training in March

Varieties : Bg 300, Bg 357, Bg 358, At 308

Experimental date: One season -2010

Genetic coefficient: GLUE - Auto run for 6000 times

Management changes (irrigation)

Page 13: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Stage 3: After Dubai Meeting and STICS (in May) Training

Explore for more research information on variety trial for calibration

Varieties : Bg 300, Bg 357, Bg 358, At 308

Variety Calibration Experiments

RRDI- athalagoda

Coordinated Variety Trials RRDI FCRDI Bathalagoda Mahailluppallama

Bg 300 2001 M (m), 2001 M (h) 2000 Y, 2001 Y, 2001 M 2000Y, 2000 M, 2002 Y

(3 months) 2007 Y (m), 2001 Y (h) 2003 Y, 2003 M, 2004 M 2002 M, 2003 Y, 2003 M

2010 Y 2005 Y, 2006 Y, 2006 M 2004 M, 2004 Y, 2005 Y

2007 Y, 2007 M 2005 M, 2006 Y, 2008 Y

(5) (11) (12)

Bg 357 2006 Y (m), 2006 (h) 2000 Y, 2000 M, 2001 Y 2000 Y, 2000 M, 2002 Y

(3.5 months) 2010 Y 2001 M, 2002 Y, 2003 Y 2002 M, 2003 Y, 2003 M

2003 M, 2004 M, 2005 Y 2005 Y, 2005 M, 2006 Y

2005 M, 2006 Y, 2008 Y 2008 Y

(3) (12) (10)

Page 14: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Stage 3: After Dubai and STICS Training

Variety Calibration Experiments

RRDI- athalagoda

Coordinated Variety Trials RRDI FCRDI Bathalagoda Mahailluppallama

Bg 358 2007 Y (m) , 2007 Y (h) 2004 M, 2005 M, 2006 Y 2004 M, 2005 Y, 2005 M,

(3.5 months) 2010 Y 2006 M, 2007 Y, 2007 M 2006 Y, 2006 M, 2007 Y

2008 Y 2007 M, 2008 Y

(3) (7) (8)

At 308 2010 Y (h)

(3 months)

Page 15: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Calibration Experiments

BG 300- 5 Experiments 2010 (Y) 440.4 146.2 381.6 12.9 53.7 .0260 0.85 1.17

2007 high fertiliser (Y) 377.9 168.9 390.5 12.5 50.6 .0260 0.96 1.24

2007 medium fertiliser (Y) 335.1 89.0 425.6 11.9 51.7 .0260 0.66 1.24

1997 medium fertiliser (M) 515.4 92.1 559.4 11.5 55.8 .0260 0.84 1.23

1997 high fertiliser (M) 531.7 116.7 568.5 11.9 57.9 .0260 0.81 1.23

BG 357- 3 Experiments: 2006 medium fertiliser (Y) 405.7 133.7 421.6 12.1 58.0 .0250 0.90 1.23

2006 high fertiliser (Y) 512.1 133.5 331.8 12.1 57.4 .0250 0.85 1.23

2010 477.3 140.0 368.3 12.7 50.5 .0250 0.85 1.24

BG 358- 3 Experiments: 2010 489.5 115.0 400.9 12.2 60.2 .0190 1.00 1.20

2007 medium fertiliser 435.6 72.5 500.1 10.7 50.3 .0190 0.69 1.10

2007 high fertiliser 516.5 35.4 496.9 10.4 50.8 .0190 0.97 1.24

2007 medium fertiliser (M) 500.2 152.3 480.3 12.9 60.6 .0190 0.95 1.00

P1 P2R P5 P2O G1 G2 G3 G4

Page 16: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

BG 300: CRVT EXPERIMENTS

RMSE = 1583 kg/ha

Page 17: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

BG 357: CRVT EXPERIMENTS

RMSE = 1824 kg/ha

Page 18: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

BG 358: CRVT EXPERIMENTS

RMSE=1334 kg/ha

Page 19: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Genetic coefficients for respective varieties are selected based

on the lowest RMSE for the yield .

However, time taken to heading stage and physiological

maturity, and also the past experiences are also considered.

Farmers Data: Only Rain-fed paddy farming – 2010 for FT

Improvement with respect to soil status of farmer fields

Identify the soil variation of different farmer fields. Instead of

one soil group we initially used (Bathalagoda series), farmer

fields were categorized in to 3 soil groups and respective

SBuilds were used for yield simulation.

Page 20: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Maha Season

Batalagoda

Major soil groups of Kurunegala District of Sri Lanka

Farmers were categorized into three (Yala) and two (Maha) major soil groups

Yala Season

Page 21: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

DOME YEAR 2010

Page 22: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Note:

Yield simulation for individual farmer for the base 30 years (1980-2010) and

future scenario (2040-2070); fertilizer management (N, P, K), varieties and

other managements and Solar Radiation were considered the same as the

historical year of 2010.

[Observed historical farmer information for the study was taken form the

Department of Agriculture which is the authorized Institute that collect

information on cost of cultivation of crops for annual crop statistics

publications of Sri Lanka]

Page 23: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

YIE

LD (

kg/h

a)

FARMER

MAHA SEASON

HISTORICAL

FUTURE NOADOPTATION

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

YIE

LD (

kg/h

a)

FARMER

YALA SEASON

HISTORICAL

FUTURE NOADOPTATION

Page 24: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

3500

4000

4500

5000

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7000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

YIE

LD (

kg/h

a)

FARMER

TOTAL

HISTORICAL

FUTURE NOADOPTATION

Page 25: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Farm ID No Season Farm size(ha) Inorganic Fertilizer

(kg/farm)

N

Historical Observed

Yield

Kg/ha

Historical Simulated

Yield

Kg/kg

Simulated

Base 30y

mean

Kg/ha

Simulated

futurecc

mean

Kg/farm

1 09/10maha 0.61 36.1 2386 6863 6030 4926 2 09/10maha 0.82 103.5 7030 8139 6517 5818 3 09/10maha 0.61 76.5 6408 8567 6625 5816 4 09/10maha 0.20 22.0 3579 7347 6454 5464 5 09/10maha 0.61 87.4 5283 6994 6667 6014 6 09/10maha 0.10 17.5 6135 6861 6852 6245 7 09/10maha 0.61 36.9 2181 7995 6052 4946 8 09/10maha 0.20 23.0 4908 8372 6539 5537 9 09/10maha 0.10 25.3 8589 7254 6966 6666 10 09/10maha 0.41 48.3 6135 6863 6578 5710 11 09/10maha 2.04 185.0 5113 6874 5637 4826 12 09/10maha 0.82 47.7 4857 5506 5147 5167 13 09/10maha 1.02 124.3 6135 6956 6445 5763 14 09/10maha 0.82 53.9 4089 5760 6105 5013 15 09/10maha 0.41 43.7 6135 7925 6351 5583 16 09/10maha 0.41 28.8 3732 6966 6158 5044 17 09/10maha 0.82 103.1 6135 6841 6165 5247 18 09/10maha 0.61 79.6 6817 8374 6630 5847 19 09/10maha 0.41 39.1 5113 7268 6400 5435 20 09/10maha 0.41 39.1 4395 6780 6367 5336 21 09/10maha 0.20 15.5 4601 6595 6197 5093 22 09/10maha 0.51 55.2 6135 6776 5583 5673 23 09/10maha 0.61 75.9 5624 7402 5900 5267 24 09/10maha 0.10 7.8 4090 6441 5368 5320 25 09/10maha 0.61 73.5 6408 8324 6465 5752 26 09/10maha 0.10 14.8 7158 6859 5884 6186 27 09/10maha 0.61 62.1 7158 6430 5541 5669 28 09/10maha 0.71 39.4 3798 6332 5084 5113 29 09/10maha 0.61 83.6 7328 6644 5794 5985 30 09/10maha 0.10 6.1 4090 6893 6057 5076

Continue…..

Page 26: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

31 10yala 0.41 48.3 5113 6813 7079 5085 32 10yala 1.02 137.5 6135 7094 7094 5250 33 10yala 0.82 98.9 5624 6982 7115 5123 34 10yala 0.10 11.5 4908 7292 7038 4910 35 10yala 0.61 34.3 2215 6787 6239 4021 36 10yala 0.41 46.0 6391 6791 6941 4984 37 10yala 0.61 64.9 4772 8264 6491 6905 38 10yala 0.20 22.4 5062 7924 6750 7221 39 10yala 0.41 45.7 6391 7257 7092 5112 40 10yala 1.02 68.1 4908 6533 5785 5894 41 10yala 0.61 61.8 6817 7120 6965 4935 42 10yala 0.41 48.3 5113 7411 7216 5228 43 10yala 0.41 44.5 4601 6713 5978 6311 44 10yala 0.41 48.3 6646 6915 6984 5060 45 10yala 1.22 148.6 8180 7070 7083 5136 45 10yala 0.20 23.0 5113 7440 7038 4910 47 10yala 0.82 50.7 5266 6715 5995 6003 48 10yala 0.20 25.3 4601 6360 6165 6631 49 10yala 0.20 21.7 3579 8018 6477 6552 50 10yala 0.20 24.4 3068 7322 7123 5019 51 10yala 0.41 41.8 4857 7902 6752 7025 52 10yala 1.02 124.7 6340 6917 6082 6666 53 10yala 0.41 44.6 4704 8005 6775 7024 54 10yala 2.45 262.2 5965 6745 6921 4886 55 10yala 1.63 184.0 6071 8782 6966 4982 56 10yala 0.61 69.0 6135 7199 6842 4976 57 10yala 0.82 43.0 2556 5863 5752 3495 58 10yala 0.61 67.8 7839 7114 6921 4952 59 10yala 1.02 120.7 6646 6663 5883 4847 60 10yala 0.82 96.6 6135 7421 7167 5235

Mean yield over farms/ha 5388 7144 6421 5499

Bias= 5388/7144 0.75

Climate effect is (5499-6421)/6421 -0.14

Page 27: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Simulated yield data revealed that :

Physical reduction of famer future rice productivity – overall

14%

For both seasons of Yala (May-August) [minor rice cultivation

season] and the Maha (Oct-Feb) [major rice cultivation season]

for irrigated farming (no moisture stress)

For irrigated Reduction is : (not yet completed)

Page 28: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Mean yield over farms/ha

5388

7144

6421

5499

Farm ID No Season Farm

size(ha)

Inorganic

Fertilizer

(kg/farm)

N

Historical

Observed

Yield

Kg/ha

Historical

Simulated

Yield

Kg/kg

Simulated

Base 30y

mean

Kg/ha

Simulated

futurecc

mean

Kg/farm

Bias= 5388/7144 0.75

Climate effect is (5499-6421)/6421 -0.14 (14%)

Irrigated condition – no moisture stress situation

Page 29: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Stakeholder/consultative meetings for future expectations

and possible adaptation views

1.Several Rice modeling team meetings

2.Leading farmers from dry-zone of Sri Lanka with staff of the Faculty of

Agriculture, University of Peradeniya and Research Officers of the Field Crop

Research and Development Centre of Department of Agriculture At

Mahailluppallama sub campus

3.Special session on Adaptation strategies for paddy farming in Sri Lanka at

the Workshop on Research progress review where Directors, Research

Officers, Agricultural Instructors , University Academics and other Public and

Private sector participated at the Mahailluppalama FCRDI

4.Meeting with the Director, Research Officers and Agricultural Instructors at

the Rice Research and Development Institute (RRDI), Bathalagoda.

Page 30: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Mahailluppallama - Sub Campus Unit

Page 31: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Mahailluppallama - Sub Campus Unit

Page 32: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Mahailluppallama - Sub Campus Unit

Page 33: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Mahailluppallama - Sub Campus Unit

Page 34: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Special session at the Annual Research Progress meeting at DOA, MOA

Page 35: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice
Page 36: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Special meeting with the Director and the research officers at the RRDI, DOA,

MOA

Page 37: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

CATEGORY VARIABLE /

INDICATOR

Direction of

change Magnitude of change

Rationale for direction and

magnitude of change

Percent change

over the period

Rationale for

percent change

over period

Agreement? Confidence

?

Bio-Physical*

Rice Land degradation

increase Small to medium

High temperature/ET, rainfall variability, poor water quality, over exploitation of resource. Rice ecosystem fairly stable

2% Built in adaptation responses and slow

rate of change high

Water availability

decrease medium

High temperature/ET, rainfall variability, poor water quality, over exploitation of resource, rapid economic development. Decrease availability and Increased demand.

15

High competion among stake

holders and limited resources

High

Land use

decrease Small to medium

Low water availability, high cost of production, alternative high remunerative crops

15% Decrese return to investment

medium

Insitutional/Policy*

Input subsidies (fertilizer)

decrease medium Budgetary constraint and enviornment concern, Budgetory restrictions

50% heavy burdern to economy, cost to the envionment

high

Infrastructure/rural/agriculture roads/irrigation

increase small

High demand and to assure the sustainability of system, Budgetary constraint and priority issues

5% Sectoral competion high

trade policy/taxes on import and export

increase medium

protection of producer and consumer, ensure food security, balance of payment

20% Stable government revenue

high

Investment on R and D

increase small

Address national needs, Counteract environment stress Budgetary constraints

1%

Indebt situation and state sector financila constraints

Medium

Page 38: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Socio-Economic* labor (availability)

decrease High

demand from other sectors Poor wages, uncertainty in continuation, common problem for all regions, high cost, poor performances

40%

Increased demand from other sectors, blue color jobs

high

Synchronization of demand at a given time in a given region, Less payments

Technology*

Improved rice cultivar productivity trends

increase Medium

Meet production demands under changing climatic conditions, Limited resources and infrastructure, long term investment,

25% Established breeding programs at the country

high

Improved management prctises

Increased medium

Labour shortage, increase resource use efficiency, Lack of resource and infrastructure facilities

20% Financial and human resource restrictions

high

CATEGORY

VARIABLE

/

INDICATO

R

Direction of

change Magnitude of change

Rationale for direction and

magnitude of change

Percent change

over the period

Rationale for

percent change

over period

Agreement

?

Confidenc

e?

Page 39: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Proposed adaptation measures

Short –term

Adjusting growing season

Shifting of seasons (Advanced / delayed planting dates)

Screening existing varieties for heat, drought tolerance and recommend

those

Management improvements

Organic matter manipulation

Increase efficiency of resource use – Fertilizer /water use

efficiency

Capacity building of stake holders

Medium to Long-term

Develop more tolerant varieties to heat and drought stress

Rehabilitate tank systems (20000 odds minor and mega scale tanks to

increase storage capacity) to ensure water availability

Technology advancement

Establish reliable weather/climate forecasting where farmers can get instant

advice

Capacity building for farmers

Page 40: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Adaptation strategies

Short term – Adjusting planting dates

Introduce tolerant varieties - Potential rice varieties to heat tolerance are

being screened

Bg 300

Adaptation Scenarios for future yield simulation

1. Advanced planting date – one week (varieties as in base year)

2. Delay planting date – one week (varieties as in base year)

3. Replace with the heat tolerant variety - Bg 300

4. Adjusted planting date with the heat tolerant variety – Bg 300

Page 41: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Adaptation Scenarios

1. Advanced planting date – one weed

2.Delayed planting date – week

3.Replace the varieties with more tolerant among

the cultivated (BG 300)

4.Adjusted planting date and tolerant cultiva

Page 42: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

AV

ERA

GE

YIE

LD (

kg /

ha)

FARMER

MAHA SEASON

BASELINE

LATE PLANTING

BG 300

INTERACTION

EARLY PLANTING

Page 43: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

2800

3300

3800

4300

4800

5300

5800

6300

6800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

AV

ERA

GE

YIE

LD (

kg /

ha)

FARMER

YALA SEASON

Page 44: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

AV

ERA

GE

YIE

LD (

kg /

ha)

FARMER

TOTAL

BASELINE

LATE PLANTING

BG 300

INTERACTION

EARLY PLANTING

Page 45: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

2. FAST TRACK

2.1. DESCRIPTION

Project Country Location Climate Scenario

Crop Modeled

Number of Strata

Number of Farms (number

of observatio

ns per strata)

Analysis units (Per ha

or per farm)?

Modeling the impact of a

variable and changing

climate on rice agricultural

system in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka Kurunegala

AgMIP Climate Scripts with Access1-0 scenario

simulation from BCCR

DSSAT 1 60 Per ha

Page 46: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

2. FAST TRACK…Cont

2.2. YIELDS SUMMARY: CC IMPACTS ON YIELDS, RELATIVE YIELDS, HISTORICAL AND FUTURE TIME/NOT TIME AVERAGED YIELDS

Stratum Climate Scenario

Base Period Yield

(kg/ha)

Base Period

Simulated Yield

(kg/ha)

Future Simulated

Yield (Kg/ha)

Time Averaged Relative

Yield

Relative Yield (Not

Time Averaged)

Predicted Future Yield

(Time Averaged)

(kg/ha)

Predicted Future Yield (Not Time Averaged)

(kg/ha)

Type data (simulated data from

crop models or pseudo

data)

1

AgMIP Climate

Scripts with Access1-0 scenario

simulation from BCCR Base(1980-

2010) future (2040-2070)

5388 6421 5498 0.86 6798 Simulated

data

Page 47: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

2. FAST TRACK…Cont

2.3. RESULTS: GAINS AND LOSSES

Stratum Climate Scenario

Gainers (%) Gains (%) Loss (%) Net Loss

(%)

1 28.95 3.57 9.76 6.19

S1: Base Climate – Base Technology

S2: Changed Climate – Base Technology

Page 48: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Gain and Loss Diagram

-200000

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Lo

sses(R

s/f

arm

)

Percent gainers

Page 49: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

RAP • Sri Lanka is expected to continue current trend of

economic growth with a lower population growth rate.

• Population growth rate remain low and urban population increase and rural house hold size decrease and farm size declines.

• Transportation infrastructure increase and trade policy encourage export and imposes high taxes on import of food that can be grown locally.

• Rice productivity would decline due to deterioration of soil fertility, extreme weather events, climate change and phasing out of fertilizer subsidy (with similar varieties and technology)

Page 50: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

4. ADAPTATION 4.1. DESCRIBE THE ADAPTATION SCENARIO. INCLUDE: Adoption of drought tolerance, heat tolerance varieties shifting of planting dates Adoption of agronomic package

-Description of variables affected by adaptation following the table below:

Variable name Base

Technology value

Adapted Technology

value Units

Yield 6421 6798 Kg/ha

S1: Changed Climate – Base Technology

S2: Changed Climate – Changed Technology

Page 51: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

4. ADAPTATION

4.2. ADAPTATION RESULTS:

Strata 1

Predicted Adoption rate = 89.6%

Economic Indicators Base Adopters Non

Adopters All Farms

Ave. farm income (Rs/year) 65269 157 -11 139

Per capita income (Rs/person/year) 15132 157 -11 139

Poverty rate (%) (Pov.line $1.25/day/person) 8.32 3.8 61.09 9.79

S1: Changed Climate – Base Technology

S2: Changed Climate – Changed Technology

Page 52: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

-200000

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

OP

PC

OS

T

ADOPT_A

Page 53: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

-300000

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

NE

T R

ET

UR

NS

PE

R F

AR

M

ADOPT_A

NRFM_A NRMF1_A NRMF2_A

Page 54: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

PE

R C

AP

ITA

IN

CO

ME

ADOPT_A PCINC_A PCINC1_A PCINC2_A

Page 55: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

PO

VE

RT

Y

ADOPT_A

POVERTY_A POVERTY1_A POVERTY2_A

Page 56: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Other major rice growing season

On going/future activities repeat the same for other rice growing region

Page 57: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Capacity building activities

- Mainly stake holder institutes

(Research officers in DOA, Research Institutes,

Universities etc.)

Page 58: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Faculty of Agriculture, UOP

Page 59: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Faculty of Agriculture, UOP

Page 60: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice
Page 61: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice
Page 62: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice
Page 63: Status of the Fast-Track on Rice Sri Lanka...Mr. Chamila Perera, Crop Modeling, FCRDI, DoA (Investigator) Climate-team of the FECT Team directly involve in the fast-tract on rice

Thanking you