strategy challenges of solar energy players-1
DESCRIPTION
This study looks at one of the emerging energy alternatives, solar energy.The gap between demand and supply of energy is huge, specially in developing countries like china and India.Most part of Europe is dependent on Russian gas for its winter supply of energy. Solar energy is one of the alternatives for energy in these countries, as fuel ( sunlight) is free and non polluting. Here the focus is on three countries Germany, USA and India. The choice is based on the emergence of the different needs of these countries, which are in different stages of development of solar energy. This makes an interesting observance.TRANSCRIPT
1
”... I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power!” Thomas elva edison
Prepared by Pranay Kumar Under guidance of Prof. Patrick Courtin
HULT International Business School One Education Street
Cambridge, MA – 02141, USA
STRATEGYCHALLENGESOFSOLARENERGYPLAYERS
2
TableofContentsContentsPages1.Executivesummary12.SolarEnergyTechnologies2‐73.Comparisonoftechnologies‐Applicationsenvironment8‐94.GovernmentPoliciesandsocio‐politicaldimensions10‐145.IssuesandChallengesforsolarenergyplayers15‐166.StrategyChallengesforsolarenergyplayers17‐207.TechnologyIllustrations21‐278.Appendix‐Governments28‐339.Valuechainofselectcompanies34‐3810.Manufacturingpolysilicion‐costanalysis39‐4011.Bibliography41
3
ExecutiveSummaryWorldisfacingnewchallengesinrapidlyevolvingscenariossuchasclimatechange,carbonemissions,watercrisisindevelopingcountries,warsoveroil.Energyandwaterhavecometotheforefrontasthetwomostimportantissues.Thisstudylooksatoneoftheemergingenergyalternatives,solarenergy.Thegapbetweendemandandsupplyofenergyishuge,especiallyindevelopingcountrieslikeChinaandIndia.Solarenergyisoneofthealternativesforenergyinthesecountriesasthefuel(sunlight)isfree.Butthefocusofthestudyisonthreecountries,Germany,USAandIndia.Thechoiceisbasedontheemergenceofthedifferentneedsofthesecountries.Thesecountriesareindifferentstagesofdevelopmentofsolarenergy,whichmakesitinterestingtoobserveassolarenergyplayers.Inthisstudywelookatdifferenttechnologies,establishedandemerging.Welookatadvantagesanddisadvantageofeachtechnologyandusagecompatibilitywithdifferentgeographiesanddifferentcustomersacrosstheworld,butfocusingonthreecountriesofourchoice.GovernmentIncentivesandprogramsformthebackboneofthesolarenergyasthisindustryisinnascentstageofdevelopment,costishighandawarenessamongstthepublicislow.Economiesofscaleislowsocostishigh,thusinstallationisalsolow(3.5Gigawattin2007throughouttheworld).Herewelookatdifferentprogramsandimplicationsandfuturescenarios.Issuesandchallengesfacingthesetechnologiesincontextwiththecountriesarediscussed.Strategychallengesbasedonusage,issuesandtechnologiesarediscussedtolookintothefutureuntil2015.Asthetechnologiesaredevelopingandtryingtoreachequivalenceincosttotheconsumersandgovernmentsaretestingdifferentmethodologiesforsolarenergysupportprograms,thefuturedependsonhowthesefactorswillplayout.
4
SolarEnergyTechnologiesTheSolarenergyisclaimedtobetheenergyofthefuture.Thistechnologysectionlooksintodifferenttypesoftechnologiesavailablenowandinfuture.Thestudyalsolooksatfuturistictechnologieslikenanotechnology,whichhavethepotentialtobelowcostenergysolutions.Thissectionintentionistolookatsolarenergytechnologiesfrombusinessperspective,ratherthanbeingatechnologyreport.ThetotalenergytheSunproducesatitssurfaceis4*1026watts/second.Thismeanspowerproducedby2.5billionspowerplantsof5000megawattseach.Thetotalenergytheearthgetsonanaverageis164Wattspersquaremeter.[Technology appendix- A1, A2]
TheSunproducessolarflux(energyperunitareapersecond)accordingtotheformulagivenbelow:SolarfluxattheEarth=TheSun'ssurfaceflux×(Sun'sradius/Earth'sdistance)2=1366watts/meter2
Basisofsolarenergytechnologies:Alltechnologiesarebasedonanyofthethreemethodslistedbelow:
1)Increasingthesurfaceareaforabsorptionofsunlight.
2)Theotherbasisiswattageorintensityoflightperunitarea.
3)Usingdifferentlayerstoincreasecaptureoftheincidentlightontheprincipleoftotalinternalreflection
Photovoltaicgenerationsandtechnologies
PhotovoltaicEffect:Whenthesunlight(photons)strikethesemiconductormaterialwithinasolarcell,negativelychargedelectronsflowfreelytoproduceelectricity.AselectricityproducedisDC(directcurrent),ithastobeconvertedtoAC(alternatingcurrent)electricitybyaninverter.
GenerationsofPVtechnologiescanbecategorizedonbasisofrawmaterialsused.
ThefirstPVgenerationcanbeconsideredtobebasedoncrystallinesilicontechnology(monoandpoly).Bothmonoandpolycrystallinetechnologiesarewellestablishedanduseoneofthemostabundantelementsonandinsidetheearth,silicon.
Thesecondgenerationisbasedonthinfilmstechnologies:CadmiumTelluride(CdTe),CopperIndiumdiselenide(CISandCIGS),amorphoussiliconandtandem(amorphous+crystallinelayers),andpolycrystallinethinfilms.(see Technology illustration 1 for working of PV cells)
5
Thecombinationsofmaterialsareusedtomaximizeabsorptionofphotonsandgenerateelectricityorheat.ExtremelythinsemiconductorlayersareprovidedthroughtheuseofpolycrystallineCdSandCdTe.ThirdgenerationPVtechnologiesarebasedonorganic,hybridanddyesolarcells(DSC).HereonlyDSCispresentlyinthemarketingphase.Thetechnologyisbasedonapplicationofdifferenttransparent/semi‐transparentdyeswhichabsorbs/filtersparticularwavelengthstomaximizelightintensitytogenerateelectricity.Principlesoftotalinternalreflection,diffractionareusedformaximizingthecaptureoflight/photons.Theseapplicationshavelimitationsofbeingonlyusedwithhorizontallyinclinedstructuresandcan’tbeusedinverticalwindows,presently.MonocrystallineSiliconCutfromasinglecylindricalcrystalofsilicon,ithashigherefficiencyof16‐18%inproduction.Thisisthenslicedintothinwafersandassembledintosolarcells.38%oftotalPVmanufacturingMulticrystallineSiliconComposedofmulticrystallinelayersofsiliconit’slessexpensivethanMonocrystallinebutlessefficientalso14‐16%inproduction.Differentprocesseslikesingleandmultipleribbontechnologyareusedtoproducewafersdirectlyfromsiliconcrystalthusreducingwastageandcost.EvergreensolarisoneofthepioneersusingtechnologydevelopedbyDr.EmanuelSachs(whonowisheading1366technologies).ThinFilmTechnologiesCdTeMostcommerciallyadvancedinthinfilmtechnologieshasapotentialdownsidethatitcouldbetoxicduetocadmium.Secondly,telluriumisararemineralontheearthanditsproductioncanbeaconstraintinfuture1.CIGSCopper‐indium‐gallium‐selenideisapromisingtechnologyandcanbeusedtoproduceflexiblematerial,openingthepathtoBIPV(buildingintegratedPV).Itsefficiencyisquitelow(5‐11%)AmorphousSiliconLowcostglass,aluminum,polymerorsteelcanbecoatedwithamorphouslayersmakingitveryflexible.Stillintheearlystagesofcommercializationit’ssuitedforBIPVapplicationsthoughithaslowefficiency(6%)untilnow.Researchisgoingonfullerenestoproducemoreefficientcells,whichcouldbepotentiallyinexpensive,asthereisnoneedtoproducewafers.OrganicPVManufacturedusingthinfilmsoforganicsemiconductors.Thesesemiconductorsaremadethroughbiosynthesisormodificationsofnaturalpolymers.It’seasytofabricate,lightweight,flexibledisposablewithminimalenvironmentalimpact.Unproventechnologyinthefiledandlowefficiency(5%)isitschallenge.KonarkaTechhasdevelopedOPVwhichcanbeprintedorcoatedandmanufacturedasaroll.
6
1~http://minerals.er.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/selenium/mcs‐2008‐tellu.pdfNano‐structuredPV‐Thesestructuresmakeuseofsomeofthesamethin‐filmlightabsorbingmaterialsbutareoverlainasanextremelythinabsorberonasupportingmatrixofconductivepolymerormesoporousmetaloxidehavingaveryhighsurfaceareatoincreaseinternalreflections(andhenceincreasetheprobabilityoflightabsorption.Nanosolarisoneoftheleadingcompaniesinthistechnology[See, Technology appendix A 3, for different PV technologies and
processes](Technology illustration 2 for different PV technologies)
KeyadvantagesofPVtechnology 1)PVpanelsarelightandcanbeusedwithtrackingsystemtoincreaseproductionofelectricity2)Establishedandproventechnology3)Nodirectimpactontheenvironment4)Minimalmaintenance5)Availabilitythroughouttheworld6)Canbeinstalledandoperatedinareasofdifficultaccess7)Cheappowersource8)Longlifeanddurability9)Lowoperatingcosts. [see Technology appendix A4 for Polysilicon manufacturing cost analysis]
10)Usableindecentralizedplantsaswellasinlarger,centralpowerplants11)Canbebuiltinsizesfromcm2uptokm2andcanbeusedinmanydifferenttypesoflocations12)Nottheleast,thefuelisfree!DisadvantagesofPVtechnology1) Lowefficiency(5‐17%)2) Lowsupplyofsiliconcreatingaglitchforprogressofsiliconbasedtechnologies3) Highextractionpriceofsiliconfromsand(SI02 ) andcomplexprocessconsuminga large
amountofenergy4) Installationchallengesandintegrationwithbuildings5) Largeareasrequiredtoproducelowamountofenergyduetolowefficiency.6) Challengedbylowcost,moreefficientemergingtechnologieslikeCSP,CPV.7) SomethinfilmapplicationscouldbetoxiclikeCdTeorGaAsConcentratedPhotovoltaic(CPV)CPVsystemscanbethoughtofas“telescopes,”(see Technology Illustration 3)trainedonthesun’spositionandfeedingtheconcentratedlighttothecell.Referredtoas“III‐V”or“Multi‐junction”,itwasoriginallydevelopedforspaceapplications.ThemagnificationratiousedindifferentCPVsystemdesignsvariessowidelythatthreeclassesofsystemshavedeveloped:•Lowconcentration,wherethemagnificationratioislessthan10X;•Mediumconcentration,between10Xand100X;•Highconcentration,wheretheratioliesabove100X,butisusuallylessthan1000X
7
Therearetwomaintypesofconcentratingopticalsystemsinusetoday:refractivetypesthatuseFresnellenses,andreflectivesystemsthatuseoneormoremirrors.Regardlessofthechosenopticalsystem,theresultisconcentratedsunlightbeingaimedatthesensitivefaceofthecell,toproducemoreenergyfromlessphotovoltaicmaterial.Advantages:
1) Highefficiency30‐35%ofthemulti‐junctioncells2) Lowcostperunitareaduetoconcentrationandminimaluseofhighcostmateriallike
Silicon(10‐15%)3) ScalabilityduetoestablishedPVtechnology4) Economicalinhigh‐sunlightintensityarea
Disadvantages
1) VerylowefficiencyduringlessintensesunlightorhazydaysascomparedtoPVtechnology,worksbestinsunnyconditionswithhighdirectsunlight
2) Lowfieldofvieworacceptanceangle(areaexposedtosunlightverylow,decreaseswithincreasingconcentrations),sorequiretrackingononeortwoaxes.
3) Cannotbeusedinlowintensitylightorhazyconditions
ExtremelyConcentratedPhotovoltaic(XCPV)Inthistechnologylightgatheringcapacityisincreasedbyaconverginglenstoincreasetheintensityoflightby1600timesonmoreefficientPV[triplejunction]cellsincreasingtheefficiencyto37%andreducingthecostdrasticallyto5cents/Kwh(asclaimedbySunrgi).Thereisaspecialheatremovaltechnology,sothatcellsdonotgetdamaged.Thistechnologyisledbyonecompany,SUNRGI.(Technology illustration 6)Advantages
1) Mostinexpensivetechnologypresentlyat5cents/Kwh2) GreaterefficiencymeanslessPVcells,lessdependenceonsilicon3) Lessarearequiredtoproduceaunitofelectricity
Disadvantages
1) Notproventechnologyonfield2) Heatmayreducetheefficiencyofcellsoveraperiodoftime3) Notusableacrossallintensitiesoflighthencegeographies
ConcentratedSolarPower(CSP)Concentratingthesunlightbyuseofmirrors,parabolictroughs(likeintelecommunicationtechnology)orsemicirculardishproducepower.Thisisthebasisofthetechnology.Heatisstoredinatransfermediumlikemoltensalt(asinnuclearreactor),whichisusedtoboilwaterandproducesteamanddriveaturbinetoproducepowerlikenormalthermal/nuclearpowerplant.
8
DifferentTechnologiesParabolicTroughMostcommerciallyadvancedandmaturesolarthermalelectrictechnology.Thesetroughsusearraysofparabolicmirrorstoconcentratesunlighttoheatupfluids,runningthroughpipesundermirrors.Heattransferfluid(HTF)isheated,whichisusedtogeneratesuperheatedsteamtorunturbines.Itcanbehybridizedwithnaturalgas‐firedtocomplimentandproducepowerevenduringnight.(see Technology illustration 4)PowerTowerIndevelopingstage,thetechnologyusessuntrackingmirrors(heliostats)toconcentratesunlightonareceiver.HTF(moltennitratesalt)isusedtotransferheat.SolarChimneys(Tower)Heatunderlargesemi‐transparentcheapplastic(parabolicshape)coveredarea(collectorfield)isusedtodriveairunderneathit.Airthusbecomestheheattransferfluid.Thishotairisguidedtowardsatowerwhichcontainsaturbine,thusproducingpower.DishEngineAparabolicmirrorusedasacollectorfocusessunlighttowardaconcentratorplacedonastructurelocatedatmirror’sfocalpoint.Twoaxestrackingsystemisusedtofollowthesunandmaximizethepowerproducedduringtheday.(see Technology illustration 5)CompactLinearFresnelReflectorCLFRusesflat,suntrackingreflectors,whichisconcentratedwithaFresnellenstofocuslightonpipes,wheresteamisgenerateddirectly.MicroCSPUsesthesameconceptasCSPbutcanbeusedforresidentialandsmallcommercialpurposes.Sopogyistheleaderinthistechnology.Sponova4,Sopogy’smicroCSPpanel(12feetby5feet)canproduce2.56Kwh/day.Productionof1megawattofelectricityrequiresaround5.5acresofspace.Advantages
1) LessexpensivethanPVtechnologies2) Powergeneratedperunitarea,high3) Thermalstoragesystemsprovidepowereveninabsenceofthesun.4) Usesteelandglass,reducingcostanddependenceonsilicon5) Drycoolingcandecreasewaterconsumptionby90%6) Canbecombinedwithnaturalgas‐firedcombinedcycletoincreaseefficiencyand
reducecostDisadvantages
1) Requireshighintensityofsunlightsocannotbeusedthroughouttheyearorinareaswithlessintensesun.
2) ExceptforParabolictroughtechnology,nootherCSPisestablished.3) Requireslargeinvestmentasminimum25Kwcanbeproducedwithpresenttechnology4) MicroCSPrequireslargeareamakingitsinstallationfeasibleonlyinfewlocations
9
UpcomingTechnologiesCarbonNanotubeArelativelynewarea,carbonnanotubecanbeusedatransparentconductorfororganicsolarcells.Nanotubenetworksareflexibleandcanbedepositedonsurfacesavarietyofways.Withsometreatment,nanotubefilmscanbehighlytransparentintheinfrared,possiblyenablingefficientlowbandgapsolarcells.Nanotubenetworksarep‐typeconductors,whereastraditionaltransparentconductorsareexclusivelyn‐typetheavailabilityofaptypetransparentconductorcouldleadtonewcelldesignsthatsimplifymanufacturingandimproveefficiency.InflatableCPVAuniquewaytoharnessCPVtechnologybysuspendinginflatablemirrorswhichareinexpensiveandsavelandareaandwhichcanwithstand100mphwindspeedhasbeendevelopedbyDr.CummingswhoisthefounderofCOOLEARTH.Dr.Cummingsclaimsthatitispossibletobringdownthecostperwattto3centsbyusingthistechnology.(Seetechnologyfigure).Coatingandfilmtechnologies:Therearestartupslike1366whichareworkingon3differenttypesoftechnologiestobringdownthecostofsiliconPVcells.Glassconcentratorsareanothermethod.StarSolaranMITstartupisdeveloping“photoniccrystals”tocapturemorelighttoproducemoreenergy.Xerocoat,anAustralianstartupisdevelopingcoatings,whichincreaseanti‐reflectivepropertiesofanysurfacethusincreasingabsorptionofsunlight.Thesetechnologiesfocusonincreasingefficienciesofexistingtechnologies.KonarkaTechnologieshavedevelopedPowerPlasticTM,whichisalowpower,portable,lightabsorbingplastic,whichcanbeusedinsmallelectronicdevices(PDA,mobiles),architecturalmaterials(windowpanes,blinds).PowerPlastic’slowcost(about5timeslessexpensive),easyapplicabilityandintegrationmakesitanattractivetechnology.ConclusionThecurrenthighinvestmentinresearchanddevelopmentwilladvancemanytechnologiestoaneconomicallevelmakingsolarenergyaveryviableoptionwithin10years.ThesiliconbasedPVtechnologieswillretaintheirdominancewithreductionincostofmanufacturingbutupcomingtechnologieslikeCPVandorganicphotovoltaic(OPV)willcompetewithPV,duetoreductionincost.CSP,ifitabletoreducethecostfurtheranddevelopMicroCSPwillbeinpositiontochallengePV’sdominancewithinafewyears.Allthetechnologieswillbeabletoco‐exist,astheSun’sintensityandnaturaldayandnightcycleisanenablerofmanypossibilities.Thechallengesofefficiency,storageofenergy,andintegrationinsolartechnologywouldbedealtwithmoreR&Daswellmorefieldexperienceoftheindustry.Solartechnologyaswholewillco‐existwithrenewableenergytechnologiesandnonrenewabletechnologiesforalongtimetocome.Hybridtechnologies(wind‐solar,solar‐naturalgasetc)couldgetaboostwithadvancementsandintegrationoftechnologies.