sustainable timber harvest analysis -...

Sustainable Timber Harvest Analysis

Jon Drimel | Forest Resource Planner

STHA Team leader

Why conduct this analysis?

• Governor’s Direction

• The DNR will:

• by March 31, 2018, analyze the sustainability of a 1 million cord harvest level off of state lands, including identification of an alternate sustainable harvest level if 1 million cords is determined to be unsustainable;

• engage an independent modeler to assist in analyzing the sustainable harvest level;

• convene a diverse stakeholder advisory group beginning in December 2016 to inform DNR's analysis of its sustainable harvest level;

• STHA project was fully funded in recent legislation. The project remains the same except for a deadline for the Commissioner’s decision to the Legislature is now March 1st.

7/21/2017Sustainable Timber Harvest Analysis |

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/harvest-analysis/index.html2

DNR Project Team

• Executive and Managing sponsors from three DNR divisions (Forestry, Fish & Wildlife, and Ecological & Water Resources)

• Project team including

• Representation from three divisions and forest biometrician/modeler

• Project manager

• Project Team leader

• Additional Contributors

• Internal Consultants – Subject matter experts from DNR divisions

• School Trust Lands office

• Communications group



Engaging stakeholders

• Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG)

• 14 natural resource organizations representing the broad interests in forest management including forest industry, environmental/conservation groups, county and federal forestland management agencies, and tribal resource managers

• To advise the DNR on process, scope, results and implications of an analysis of the highest sustainable timber harvest level from DNR-managed forest lands, including the sustainability of a one million cord level annual harvest level.

• Identify and communicate to DNR staff significant interests/concerns to be considered in the sustainable timber harvest analysis

• Timber Productivity, Wildlife Habitat, Biodiversity, Water Quality & Quantity, Forest Community Health, Economics



Stakeholder Advisory Group Mission

• Represent the breadth of interests around the sustainable timber harvest analysis;

• Learn about and contribute to the broader understanding of the sustainable timber harvest analysis;

• Identify and communicate to DNR staff significant interests/concerns to be considered in the sustainable timber harvest analysis;

• Advise the DNR on a broader public engagement effort; and

• Provide feedback and advice on the scope, process, results, and implications of the analysis.



Independent Contractor

To obtain a fresh look at our sustainable harvest level, the DNR used a competitive bidding process to hire an independent third-party contractor. Mason, Bruce & Girard was selected to preform the work. They:

• Bring an experienced team with a dedicated Project Manager that has worked on similar projects for various public agencies and stakeholder groups

• Provided robust project management information and timeline details

• Provide a well rounded interdisciplinary team named to the project capable of completing an independent analysis

• Communicated understanding of the project, project approach, and scales of analysis

• Utilize preferred software (Remsoft) and have staff experts



Overall Project Tasks

• Work iteratively with the Project Team to plan, develop, and analyze a range of scenarios to assess the sustainable harvest level from DNR-managed timber lands.

• Work with the Project Team to identify certain harvest scenarios for more in-depth spatial analyses to assess implications for spatially-dependent forest resource values (e.g., proximity to mills, wildlife habitat).



Overall Project Tasks

• Evaluate the importance and sensitivity of key model parameters and assumptions.

• Evaluate harvest scenarios using, but not limited to, the following metrics:

• Age class distributions over time by species and landscape planning unit

• Harvest volume projections over time by species and landscape planning unit

• Quantitative and qualitative tradeoffs between multiple forest resources across DNR-administered lands and other ownerships.

• Account for varying levels of risk and uncertainty, including climate change adaptation, associated with different resources and/or data sets.



First Deliverable

• No later than June 30, 2017, conduct initial harvest scenario modeling including a scenario that produces one million cords annually from DNR-managed timber lands. This is referred to as Phase I of the project.

• Submit a written report describing the preliminary results to date from the initial harvest scenarios, including as many of the following components as possible:

• Age class distributions over time by species and landscape planning unit

• Harvest volume projections over time by species and landscape planning unit

• Spatial patterns over time, such as distribution of patch sizes and harvesting proximity to roads and mills.



First Deliverable

• Phase I was a learning time for MB&G. It was the time for them to get and understand the available data and construct the bones of the forest planning model.

• Results included in the progress report for initial model runs focus on timber (fiber) outputs. MB&G and the DNR are not ready to draw any conclusions about sustainability from the initial modeling.

• These initial model runs were not a complete assessment and still must incorporate additional modeling parameters and analysis.

• The work in Phase I and accompanying progress report sets the stage for the bulk of the additional modeling and analysis work to be completed in Phase II.



Timeline

• December 12th – Team formed

• December 15th – SAG kick off meeting

• January 27th - SAG review of draft RFP

• February 17th – RFP Posted

• March 13th - Proposal Deadline

• April 3rd – Contract Fully Executed

• April 13th – Contractor Kick-off meeting

• April-May – Team and MB&G worked together to build base model.

• June 6-8 – MB&G in Grand Rapids to meet with field staff and project team

• June 9 – SAG meeting

• June 28 – SAG follow up call #1

• June 30 – end of Phase I

• July 11 – SAG follow up call #2

• Next SAG meeting in August



Phase I Focus



Data

• Preparing the DNR administered inventory dataset

• Forestry areas informed to update inventory January 31, 2017

• Data vintage April 7, 2017

• Planning fields added

• NPC Crosswalk

• Land base

• Total DNR 5.60 million acres

• Total with inventory 5.45 million acres

• Total managed acres 4.81 million acres

• Non forest 1.39 million acres

• Stagnant forest types 0.66 million acres

• Forested 2.76 million acres



Model

• Woodstock modeling platform – www.remsoft.com

• “Industry standard” for private and public forest land managers

• Optimization model utilizing linear programming and allows for the input of spatial data, yield tables, and management rules

• Maximizes some objective while meeting as set of constraints and/or goals

• Allows for creation of themes for varying assumptions and analyzing results



http://www.remsoft.com/

Yield Tables

• Cover Type

• Age

• Site Index

• Walters, D. K., & Ek, A. R. (1993). Whole stand yield and density equations for fourteen forest types in Minnesota. Northern Journal of Applied Forestry(10), 75-85.

• Zobel, J. M., Ek, A. R., & O'Hara, T. J. (2014). ZEO Yield and Mortality Model Application. University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy.



Initial Scenarios

• Timber Potential

• What is the potential for MN forests to grow fiber?

• Million Cords

• Can DNR administered timberlands sustainably support One Million cords per year harvest?

• If so, how long? If not, what should the harvest level be? What assumptions matter?

• NPC Growth Stages Goals

• What do outputs look like given age class goals more similar to pre-settlement MN?



Phase I Initial Modeling Assumptions

• Constant Across All Initial Scenarios

• Silvicultural regimes by planning unit

• Rotation ages by cover type by planning unit

• Objective function (present value of stumpage revenue)

• 150 year planning horizon

• Non-declining Inventory volume at the end of the planning horizon

• Varied in Initial Scenarios

• Even-flow applied incrementally

• Age class goals for some scenarios

• Site-level guideline volume reduction in some scenarios



Phase II Modeling & Analysis

• What do DNR administered timberlands look like in context with other ownerships?

• How should model assumptions vary by land administrator or status?

• How do statutory restrictions affect constraints and goals?

• What kinds of spatial considerations can be made in this modeling effort?

• This and more as part of Phase II....



Next Steps

• Phase II

• MB&G investigating yield table alternatives

• MB&G varying/modifying assumptions to address sustainability analysis

• Iterative model runs and communication with the Project Team

• Outreach

• Sharing of Phase I progress report

• Interaction with the SAG as well as internal consultants. Communications to staff and external stakeholders.

• Opportunity this fall for the general public to view and comment on the draft analysis.



Final Products

• By October 31, 2017, complete sustainability analyses on a range of harvest scenarios from an iterative process involving the Project Team with input from the SAG. This must include quantitative and qualitative tradeoffs between multiple forest resources across DNR-administered lands and other ownerships.

• By January 31, 2018, submit a final written report that addresses substantive comments/revisions from the SAG and the public, including revised outputs as needed.



For more information, please contact:

Jon Drimel

[email protected]

218-308-2381



mailto:[email protected]

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