tewksbury esa2015 centennial lecture
TRANSCRIPT
Ecology and Natural History in the Anthropocene
Photo: Sun on earth from the International Space Station © ESA / NASA
Joshua TewksburyWalker Endowed Professor of Natural History
Department of Biology and College of the EnvironmentUniversity of Washington
The Anthropocene
A good time to be aliveThe past 100 years have been very good for people
Human population
3.5x
Take of terrestrial biomass production
2x only
Per capita GDP4x
Sources: UNPD, The Madison Project, Krausmann et al. 2012 PNAS. Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
Conservation Science for the 21st century: boundaries, transformations and bringing science to the table
Josh TewksburyDirectorLuc Hoffmann Institute
decline in poverty
50% decline in malnourishment
33%
2xReal income,low & middle income countries
Sources: Mercedes de Onis et al. 2000, UN Millennium Development Goals Photo: Greenland © Wim van Passel / WWF-Canon
A good time to be aliveThe past 20 years have have been even better
Of terrestrial surface of the earth
50% We use
Of all freshwater54% We
use
Sources: Hooke and Martin-Duque 2012, Postel et al. 2012, Unicef, world energy outlookPhoto: Hong Kong; © Global Warming Images / WWF-Canon
People without enough water
1 bl +1.3 bl Lack
electricity
Challenging Earth SystemsIncreasing resource scarcity and inequality
Added to the middle class3 bl
78.1
9.3
10.6
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
billi
ons
Fertility assumption High Medium Low
5 Billion
2 Billion
1 Billion
203020101990
Source: OECD 2010
Sources: UNPD 2013, OECD 2010Photo: Hong Kong; © Global Warming Images / WWF-Canon
And more challenges to comeHuman demand shifting into high gear
Science in theAnthropocene
Photo: Sun on earth from the International Space Station © ESA / NASA
Lubchenco ‘98Entering the century of the environment: A new social contract for science
Photo: Jane Lubchenco © BDSJS
The Social Contract: How can ecology and natural history most effectively embrace 21st century challenges?
Theory
Description
Experimental
ManipulationsComparison
(correlation)
Observation
Natural History: Attention to nature, from the scale of the organism to the scale of the landscape, and the body of honest, accessible work that comes from this attention.
“Ecology is a new name for a very old subject. It simply means scientific natural
history”-Elton 1927
Lu et al. 2009
Ciais et al. 2005
Diuk-Wasser 2012
IPPC 2007
Dry Days
Δ NPP summer
Δ NPP
Lu et al. 2009
Ciais et al. 2005Δ NPP summer
Δ NPP
Sources: OECD Stat
Brazil
China
Egypt
India
South Korea
USA*
0 20 40 60 80
100
AcademiaBusinessCivil Service¥
Diplomacy
EconomicsEngineeringLawMedicine
MilitaryTeachingOthers
Politicians by tribeThese are not ecologists
Sources: Economist, International Who’s Who, Congressional Research Service
Collaboration and Collective impact: boundary organizations and trans-disciplinary research
Ecology and sustainability
Photo: Fishing at sunset on the Mekong river, Vientiane, Laos; © Michèle Dépraz / WWF-Canon
Ecology and Natural History: rooted in observation, focused on prediction
Photo: Fishing at sunset on the Mekong river, Vientiane, Laos; © Michèle Dépraz / WWF-Canon
Photo: Fishing at sunset on the Mekong river, Vientiane, Laos; © Michèle Dépraz / WWF-Canon
Science Capacity
Policy / Practice Capacity
Evidence
Direction and Focus
Boundary Organizations
Gove
rnm
enta
l
Natural Science
Social Science
Non
-Gov
ernm
enta
l
Convention for the
Conservation and
Management of the Vicuña
International Agreement
on Polar Bears
Boundary Organizations in international Science and Conservation
Global Change Research Programs: a brief history
• Deliver knowledge for sustainability
• Build capacity to deliver solutions• Engage young scientists and
developing countries scientists• Expand the involvement of social
scientists and economists• Involve stakeholders and decision-
makers
Photo: Fishing in the Mekong © Tan Someth Bunwath / WWF-Cambodia
Focal Challenges
Food, Energy Water
Climate Change
Natural Assets and Ecosystem
Services
Resilient Cities
Viable Rural Futures
Human Health
Sustainable Consumption and
ProductionRisk
Management
Deliver water, energy, and food for all, and manage the synergies and trade-offs among them, by understanding how these interactions are shaped by environmental, economic, social and political changes.
Sources: International Energy Agency, FAO Photo: Modern irrigation for alfalfa fields. Najd, Saudi Arabia; © Bruno Pambour / WWF-Canon
Safeguard natural assets underpinning human well-being by understanding relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and services; and developing effective valuation and governance approaches.
Focal Challenges
• International• Interdisciplinary• Trans-disciplinary
(knowledge to action) (co-creation)
How international is Ecology?Co-Authorship analysis
Source: Elsevier Research Intelligence: SCOPUS data
80
60
40
20
0
% o
f pap
ers i
n Ec
olog
y Jo
urna
ls w
ith in
tern
ation
al co
llabo
rato
rs
% of ALL papers with international collaborators
Ecology papers more likely to have international collaborations
10 20 30 40 50 60
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0Cita
tion
Impa
ct In
tern
ation
al
colla
bora
tions
in E
colo
gy0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Citation ImpactAll Ecology
Ecology papers with international collaborations are cited more often
2009 20092013 2013
How interdisciplinary is Ecology?Citation analysis
Germany
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0
Shar
e of
top
10%
of
Inte
rdisc
iplin
ary
pape
rs (%
)
JapanUK FranceChinaUS
EcologyAll Disciplines
21.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.3
0Ci
tatio
n Im
pact
Top
10%
Inte
rdisc
iplin
ary
pape
rs0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Citation Impactall papers
Interdisciplinary papers in ecology are cited less often than average papers
Ecology papers are less interdisciplinary than The average SCOPUS paper
Source: Elsevier Research Intelligence: SCOPUS data from 2009 through 2013
How does the science get used?Where does the evidence for action come from?
Source: Guizam, Brooks and Tewksbury - unpublished
9 report series316 reports
44,038 citations
An alternative evidence ecosystem?Majority of evidence is not from the peer reviewed literature
Source: Guizar, Brooks and Tewksbury - unpublished
Avg. % of citations from peer reviewed sources
19-2560
40
20
0
Perc
ent o
f cita
tions
from
pee
r re
view
ed li
tera
ture
TNC Ecoregional
Assessments
IUCN Ecosystem
Manage
IUCNEnviron.
Law
IUCN / WCPAProtect. Area
BestPractices
WWF Living Planet Report
IUCN Species Survival
Commission
UNEP Year Book
Stateof the
Worlds Birds
Advances in Applied
Biodiversity Science
n=3 3 6 11144 2376106
Source: Guizar, Brooks and Tewksbury - unpublished
Num
ber o
f Rep
orts
90
60
30
0
0 100 200 300 400
Which journals get cited?Conservation and Ecology
Conservation Biology
Number of Citations
Biological Conservation
Science
NatureBioscience
Ecological Applications
Ecology
Oryx
Journal of Wildlife
Management
PNAS
324 most cited journals in 316 reports; 8327
citations (80% of total)
Source: Guizar, Brooks and Tewksbury - unpublished
Which fields inform conservation?Ecology, and more Ecology.
Num
ber o
f Jou
rnal
s
75
50
25
00 500 1000 1500
Number of Citations
324 most cited journals in 316
reports; 8327 citations
Ecology, Evolution,
Behavior and Systematics
Ecology
Animal Science and Zoology
Nature and Landscape Conservation
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Aquatic Science
Agricultural and Biological science
General Science
Citations from ecology subject areas vs. citations from all social science subject areas combined
10 to 1
Challenges are• International• Interdisciplinary• Trans-disciplinary
(knowledge to action) (co-creation)
Photo: palm tree fruit collected in Borneo, Malaysia© naturepl.com / Christophe Courteau / WWF-Canon
Oil Palm as a socio-ecological systemCo-creating locally-relevant solutions across countries
Oil Palm as a socio-ecological systemCo-creating locally-relevant solutions across countries
Photo: First meeting of the Oil Palm Adaptive Landscapes (OPAL) project
Photo: Fishing at sunset on the Mekong river, Vientiane, Laos; © Michèle Dépraz / WWF-Canon
Science as Service
Science as serviceTrans-disciplinaryUser-focusedCo-createdSolution oriented
Scalable and transportable
ChallengesFood, Water, Energy, Cities,
Consumption & Production, Climate, Sustainable Use and Protection of Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems
ServiceScience, Information, Collaboration, Innovation, Education, Engagement
SolutionsHealthy landscapes, freshwater
systems and oceans; clean air; just, equitable societies; livable cities;
healthy people
Collaboration and Collective impact: boundary organizations and trans-disciplinary research
Ecology and sustainability
Photo: Fishing at sunset on the Mekong river, Vientiane, Laos; © Michèle Dépraz / WWF-Canon
Ecology and Natural History: rooted in observation, focused on prediction
Natural History: perpetually on the verge of extinction
Exposure: minimum natural history required for a BS in Biology
Year: P < 0.0001 (LRT test)(GLLM w/ 35 institutions; institution as random effect, Poisson error structure)
2.25
2.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
is declining
Exposure
Tewksbury et al. 2014, Bioscience
Natural history in introductory biology texts from 1930 to 2011
Exposure
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0Na
tura
l hist
ory
mat
eria
l in
colle
ge b
iolo
gy te
xtbo
oks (
prop
. of t
otal
)
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005 Modified Logistic
[y =y0 + a/(1+(x/x0)b)] w/ 38 texts): RSS / TSS = 0.92
3
2
1
Min
imum
nat
ural
hist
ory
cour
ses f
or a
BS
in B
iolo
gy19
3519
45
Exposure is declining
Tewksbury et al. 2014, Bioscience
“Do black grapes of the desert have a basic
thirst for tears?”-P. Neruda
US and Europe have been losing herberia
since 1990
Global
NorthAmerica
Europe
“Do black grapes of the desert have a basic
thirst for tears?”-P. Neruda
Consolidation of collections
EuropeUS
Access
B. Thiers, in New York Botanical Garden's Virtual Herbarium.
(2012)
NaturalHistory
Upgrade
Richard Conniff, Conservation 2014
Future:A prescription for 21st century natural history and
ecology
21st century– Collaboration and
Curation
– Transparency and Technology
Collaboration: Working as a community
1995
2000
2005
2010
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0
% o
f pap
ers b
y to
pic
1985
1990
Collaboration: Organizing amateur naturalists
Theobald et al. 2015Biological Conservation
200
150
100
50
0Ci
tizen
Scie
nce
Prog
ram
Initi
ated
BiodiversityNatural HistoryClimate changeInvasivesLand use changeOverexploitation citizen science
programs growing faster than peer
reviewed literature
A lot more than birds
Theobald et al. 2015Biological Conservation
Gathering a wide swath of Natural
History data
Industrial Scale Natural History
Theobald et al. 2015Biological Conservation
> 1.3 million people and > $1.4 billion in
spending each year
10 100 1000 10000 1000001
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
Spatial Extent (“up to” km bins)
Cur
rent
Par
ticip
ants
(val
ue o
r med
ian) fine grain, broad extent
Consistency matters
Theobald et al. 2015Biol. Conservation
and unpublished data
Long term participants
collecting long term data-sets
1 10 100 10001
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
Longevity (years)
25+ years
Curre
nt P
artic
ipan
ts (v
alue
or
med
ian)
1-4 6-12 24+ Var0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% o
f Pro
ject
sSamples / year
4+ 3 2 1Years with project:
Future:A prescription for 21st century natural history and
ecology
21st century– Collaboration and
Curation
– Transparency and Technology
Professional ecologists are exceptionally well placed to lead
Much of the data we collect never gets shared
– 57% of papers from NSF funded grants in Ecology share no data
– Very little of the data shared is outside of molecular and phylogenetic data repositories
Hampton et al. Front Ecol Environ 2013; 11(3): 156–162
We are building the stadiums, but most of us are not going to the games
• Getting out of the dark will require– More transparency and
collaboration (within and across disciplines)
– More incentive structures that reward the collection and curation of natural history
– A flattening of ecology (more amateur experts, treating natural history as civics)
Photo: Oliver Tewksbury © Benj Drummond BDSJS.com