tf centurion (136 meb)

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOUOSTAND STRONG!Effects - Sean Currans – AG

Th

20 October 2012

AG BriefTF Centurion (136 MEB)

This briefing located at: TBD

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Ag Brief

Nature: Brief C6 on Effects Ag Strategy

Agenda: AssumptionsResearchKabul ProvinceStrategySummary

Time: 1630-1730

Outcome: Gain C6 concurrence/guidance of agriculture way ahead.

NATO

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Context – Afghanistan Agriculture

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Grapes are King in Kabul

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Assumptions

Sun-dried on ground

“T” trellisJui –earth trellis

Kishmish Khana (exp.)

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Research Since 4 October 2012

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Afghanistan Top Five Ag Exports

2010 Ranked by value1. Raisins2. Sesame seed3. Almonds shelled4. Other melons5. Pistachios

Raisins have been either #1 or usually a top 5 rank for 50 years.

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Grapes and Raisins – Low Production

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Kabul Province

Grape $185 M

Apple $18 M

Almond $8 M

2008 Crop Production

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Sun-dried on ground

Assumptions Validated

“T” trellisJui –no trellis

Kishmish Khana (exp.)

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USG Agriculture Strategy (2009)

1. Increase agriculture sector jobs and incomes

1. Increase agricultural productivity

2. Regenerate Agribusiness

3. Rehabilitate watersheds and improve irrigation

2. Increased confidence of Afghans in their government

1. Increase MAIL capacity to deliver services to rural

farmers, herders and promote the private sector

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What if 5% Annual Production Growth?

Assume Constantprices:

Grapes@$.40/kgRaisins@$1.64/kg

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Distribute “T” Trellising

• concrete posts• steel cross arms• wire

• local production• proven method• high demand

• $1,500 materials-only per 1 jerib (.5 acre) (2009 price)• Per jerib: 150 trellis posts, cross bars, wire, misc.

•$500,000 buys 333 jeribs grape trellising (166 acre)

• Annual grape yield from 333 jeribs after 4 years= 1,200 MT = $600,000 value

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Summary• $1 million in two Kabul City trellis projects

– 666 jeribs new trellised vineyards (333 acres)– 4 years later after vines are full producing

• 2400 MT grapes annual farm-gate value = $1.2 million– Dried becomes 532 MT sun-dried raisins per year

• Farm-gate raisin annual value = $266,000• 8.5% increase in Tabasom Company Volume

– 1 trellised jerib grapes/raisins increases farmer income $1800/$800per year.

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AG – ConOp Conclusions1. Questions?2. Effects-Agriculture requests tentative

commitment of $1 million CERP for two trellis distribution projects for Kabul City area.

3. With Commander’s approval, Agriculture will continue to work with Kabul area grape and raisin stakeholders to develop outlined capacity building trellis distribution concept into CERP projects.

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Additional Ag Information

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Questions & Approach1. How do we both control the materials for the "T" Trellising so our

money is spent wisely (and the material is not pilfered) and empower MAIL and the local farmer? Who is the intermediary? The NGOs?1. Under separate CERP contract, use local national technical SME hired by us to

a) assist MAIL in execution, b) oversee manufacturing and distribution of materials, c) monitoring and evaluation.

2. Project to be setup as "remote control" project management, with critical juncture US inspections.

2. 2) How long will take to recoup the $1500 investment / per farm? 1. $1500 in trellis materials for 1 jerib vineyard, after 4 years, with average prices

and production will yield per year either $1,800 in 3600kg grapes, or $400 in 800kg raisins, if the grower cannot sell the fresh grapes.

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Open Gable Trellis System

New Raisin Assumptions

Test Dried-on-Vine MethodShundukhani trials?

Kishmish Khanas in Kabul?

http://alldayidreamaboutfood.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Raisins-drying-on-the-vine.jpg

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More “Low-Hanging” Fruit• Distribute cold-frames (greenhouses)• Alfalfa baling demonstrations• Setup educational exchange for grape and

raisin entrepreneurs to California• Distribute fruit and nut trees to farmers• City Park Design Contest• Build Kishmish Khanas (grape drying)• Distribute trellising in other Kabul Districts

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MAAWS-A March 2012• Authorized Uses of CERP – (Broad)

1. Agriculture: Projects to increase agricultural production or cooperative agricultural programs. This category includes irrigation systems.

2. Education3. Food Production & Distribution

tf centurion (136 meb)

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