the case for conditional cash transfers in the people's ......(e.g., brazil’s bolsa familia...

The Case for Conditional Cash Transfers in the People's Republic of China

在中国开展有条件现金转移支付

项目的理据

NO. 2012-1

观察与建议

Obs

erva

tions

and

Sug

gest

ions

Disclaimer for Translated Documents 译文声明

This document has been translated from English in order to reach a wider audience. While the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has made efforts to verify the accuracy of the translation, English is the working language of ADB and the English original of this document is the only authentic (that is, official and authoritative) text. Any citations must refer to the English original of this document.

为扩大读者范围，特将本报告由英文翻译为中文。亚洲开发银行（亚行）尽力确保翻译的准确性。但英语是亚行的官方语言，因此，本报告的英文原版为唯一具有权威性的（即正式的和经授权的）文本。任何对本报告内容的引用，必须以其英文原版内容为准。

© 2012 Asian Development Bank © 亚洲开发银行 2012

All rights reserved. Published 2012.Printed in the People's Republic of China版权所有。2012 年出版。在中华人民共和国印刷。

The views expressed in this book (publication) are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. Accounts presented here are anecdotal and do not represent comprehensive impacts of projects or programs.

ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.

By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this publication, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

ADB encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and noncommercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADB. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express, written consent of ADB.

本书（出版物）中所述为作者的观点，不一定代表亚洲开发银行（亚行）、亚行理事会或其代表的政府的观点和政策。在这里所阐述的事件是实际案例，不代表项目或规划的全面影响。

亚洲开发银行不担保本出版物中所含数据的准确性，而且对使用这些数据所产生的后果不承担责任。

在此出版物中标明、参照某个版图或地理区域，或使用术语“国家”不代表亚行对任何地域实体的合法性或其它法律地位的任何判断。

亚行鼓励仅出于个人和非商业性目的对信息进行印刷或复制的行为，但须给予亚行适当的承认。未经申请并得到亚行书面同意，使用者严禁出于商业目的再出售、再发行、或创造衍生作品。

Note: In this publication, "$" refers to US dollars.注：在本出版物中，“$”表示美元。

�


在中国开展有条件现金转移支付项目的理据

Abstract 摘要

• Since the start of economic reforms more than three decades ago, income inequality has deteriorated sharply in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The growing gap poses a major challenge to the government’s inclusive and balanced development strategy. If not addressed, inequality will hinder the PRC’s future growth by undermining consumption, constraining development in poorer regions, and generating social tensions.

中华人民共和国（中国）自三十多年前实行经济改革以来，收入不平等问题急剧恶化。收入差距不断加大给中国政府的包容性、均衡发展战略带来了重大挑战。这个问题如果得不到解决，将会抑制消费，制约贫困地区的发展，引发社会矛盾，从而阻碍中国未来的发展。

• It is imperative to strengthen social protection to close the inequality gap. In this context, relevant lessons could be drawn from successful policy actions undertaken by Latin American countries, where inequality has declined in the past decade. Among the factors of success, implementation of progressive social policies, of which the launch of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs is viewed as a breakthrough in policies for poverty alleviation at the bottom of the income distribution. 加强社会保障，弥合收入差距已刻不容缓。在这方面，拉美国家的经验可资借鉴。过去十年来，这些国家由

于采取了有效的政策，收入差距不断缩小。这些国家的成功经验之一是实行了先进的社会政策，其中，有条

件现金转移支付（CCT）是帮助赤贫人群减少贫困政策上的一个突破。

• Successful international experiences suggest that CCTs are an effective and fiscally sustainable tool for long-term poverty reduction. Its potential implementation in the PRC appears particularly relevant in light of the recent upward revision of the official poverty line, which has increased the poverty headcount from 28 to 128 million people. 成功的国际经验表明，有条件现金转移支付是一种有效且具有财政可持续性的长期减贫方法。此外，由于

中国政府最近上调了贫困线，界定的贫困人口总数从2,800万增加为1.28亿，此时在中国开展有条件现金转

移支付项目显得合乎时宜。

Observations and Suggestions

�

观察与建议

I. INTRODUCTION

1. The benefits of rapid growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have not been evenly distributed among individuals and regions. Inequality has widened significantly between urban and rural areas, and within the urban population. Urban incomes today are almost three and a half times higher than those in rural areas. Regional disparities have also worsened, and the central and western regions lag behind the eastern region in terms of social and economic development. As a result, income inequality has deteriorated, and today the PRC’s Gini coefficient (0.47), a common measure of income inequality, is among the highest in the world.

2. The growing gap poses a major challenge to the government’s inclusive and balanced development strategy. If not addressed, inequality will hinder the PRC’s future growth by undermining consumption, constraining development in poorer regions, and generating social tensions. Hence, income redistribution policies and social protection need to be strengthened to close the inequality gap.

�. In this pursuit, relevant lessons could be drawn from successful policy actions undertaken by Latin American countries to narrow the income gap. Even though Latin America stands as the most unequal region the world (Gini coefficients range from 0.45–0.60, compared to 0.32–0.58 in Asia), inequality has declined in the past decade in most countries, and the mean Gini coefficient has fallen by 0.29 points from 2002 to 2008. The decline in inequality is attributed to increased education levels, labor market reform, and implementation of progressive social policies, of which the launch of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs is regarded as a breakthrough in policies for poverty alleviation.

�. Following promising results in Latin America and the Caribbean, CCTs have been introduced in Indonesia, Morocco, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa and Turkey, and in cities such as New York and Washington DC. The widespread use of CCT programs across the world as a means of reducing income inequality suggests that it may be worthwhile to explore in addressing poverty issues in the PRC. By reviewing successful international practices, this policy note aims to provide relevant recommendations. II. CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS

5. CCTs are social protection programs that transfer cash to households at the bottom of the income distribution, subject to compliance with a series of conditions including school attendance, use of healthcare facilities and other social services. Conceived as a multidimensional approach to poverty reduction, CCTs are increasing the living standards of the most vulnerable, reaching those who were never targeted by social programs.

6. The concept behind CCTs draws on empirical evidence showing that improved health and education, particularly for children, are key factors in human capital formation, as low standards of nutrition, health, and schooling are associated with low incomes and vicious cycles of poverty. Further, the increased human capital resulting from improved education is expected to play an important role in breaking the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Moreover, results from some CCT programs

5



show that cash transfers could increase income permanently by facilitating investments in productive activities as the transfers are often accepted as collateral for microcredit.

7. CCTs are highly progressive as they target the poorest households, and their benefits have had significant impacts facilitating the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals. Many of the CCT's success stories stem from encouraging achievements in the two largest programs, Bolsa Familia in Brazil, and Oportunidades in Mexico, which cover respectively a quarter and a fifth of households, with modest budgets (less than 0.5% of GDP) but have reduced the overall level of poverty by about 4%, and the gap between household’s income and the poverty threshold by 21%. More recently, CCT programs are being introduced in Asia, with encouraging results, including Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program in the Philippines1, and Keluarga Harapan in Indonesia. The latter is the result of converting an existing unconditional cash transfer program into a conditional one.

8. Evidence also suggests that CCTs have improved the targeting of scarce resources by fostering the relocation of social expenditure from less effective untargeted public spending to cash transfers, which entail lower transaction costs and integrate social protection schemes into a single program (e.g., Brazil’s Bolsa Familia absorbed four existing social programs for the provision of food, health, education and energy for the poor).

9. Other strengths of CCTs include flexibility to adjust their design to specific country circumstances, a feature that allows for a great variety of programs ranging from large scale to pilot, and from a comprehensive approach to a narrow focus. For instance, Argentina’s Plan Jefes y Jefas del Hogar Desocupados focuses on employment opportunities and training, the scope of Ecuador’s Bono de Desarrollo Humano supports the disabled and elderly albeit exempt of conditionality, and Chile Solidario has developed an innovative psychosocial welfare approach to poverty reduction targeting psychological motivation to reinforce personal abilities while providing access to training. In Asia, the Bangladesh Female Secondary School Assistance Program only targets access to secondary education for girls.

III. IMPACT OF CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS PROGRAMS2

10. Impact analysis shows significant improvement in nutrition levels and access to preventive medicine and immunization programs leading to reduced illnesses and improved growth and weight of small children. In Mexico, children under the CCT program gained one centimeter in height in two years compared with a control group, Nicaragua’s Red de Proteccion Social increased access to immunization by 18% soon after the start of the program.

1　ADB is supporting the implementation of the program through Loan 2662-PHI: Social Protection Support Project.

2　This section draws on experiences from CCT programs in Latin American countries as they have been for longer time under implementation and a variety of assessments is available.


6

观察与建议

11. Schooling results are also positive. In Ecuador, secondary enrollment grew 10% in just two years, and child labor among beneficiary households fell by 17%. In rural Mexico, the impact was substantial with a 24% reduction in dropout rates, and 23% rise in completion rates in secondary school.

12. Average consumption among the poor has increased under the different programs, ranging from 15% in Colombia to 30% in Honduras. This has been reflected in reductions in the size of the rural poverty gap in most countries (e.g., 36.1% reduction in Mexico, 18.1% in Nicaragua), and subsequent reductions in the poverty headcount (e.g., by 10% and 7%, respectively, in Mexico and Nicaragua two years after the start of their programs).

13. CCTs have also positively influenced consumption in the longer term, even after the beneficiary of the cash transfer exits the scheme. In some instances, programs with the larger cash transfers show increased participation in micro-enterprises and investments in farming and agricultural activities. In this context, some CCTs have resulted in increased financial inclusion (e.g., Mexico, Brazil and Colombia), facilitating access to credit either by allowing the use of the cash transfers as collateral, or by reducing scrutiny and transaction costs for micro-credit on account of the applicant’s membership in the CCT program.

IV. LESSONS LEARNED

1�. Conditionality. Conditionality is essential to guarantee the effectiveness of the CCT program in terms of human capital development, as unconditional cash transfers will not necessarily translate into increased schooling standards (poor parents are less likely to invest in education, opting instead for child labor), or have longer lasting impacts through the start up of micro-entrepreneurial activities or increased employment opportunities. Another risk in the absence of conditionality is the possibility that the cash transfers are saved, having thus a negligible impact on the consumption levels of beneficiaries. Once established, conditionality has to be enforced and verified. Compliance has been high in existing programs (e.g., Brazil, Mexico and El Salvador exceeding 90%).

15. Scale and coverage. CCTs greatly vary in scale and scope. Most countries have opted for gradual implementation, starting with a pilot project followed by an assessment and operational adjustments prior to increasing its scale. It should be noted that while CCTs entail large costs in the initial implementation years, costs will be spread over the duration of the program. Nonetheless, overall costs are marginal compared to traditional public policy programs, for instance, energy subsidies, which are highly regressive and commonly amount to 5%–8% of GDP, against the 0.1%–0.5% of GDP typical of CCTs.

16. On the amount and periodicity of the transfer, it varies by country. Cash transfers usually amount to 12%–20% of the mean income of poor families, and payment periodicity depends on proximity to financial services, with bimonthly payments most common. Transfers often include a gender-equalizing element by granting higher resources for girl’s education, particularly at the secondary level. Program duration varies but tends to be long-term in order to achieve the desired results. For instance, Mexico's Oportunidades has been launched with a time span of �0 years, although beneficiaries graduate earlier through flexible exit policies.

7



17. Targeting. Targeting is a crucial determinant of success to guarantee the progressivity of the intervention by selecting eligible households under the official poverty line, avoiding leakages or misallocation of resources. In several countries 80% of the transfers have reached 40% of the poorest among the poor, and in Argentina, 96% of recipients were poor and cash transfers reached 72% of the unemployed. This contrasts with past initiatives toward poverty reduction, which ended largely allocated (80%) to the non-poor. Most countries have introduced unified household registries and developed targeting mechanisms, mainly proxy means tests,� with support from international financial institutions. Most CCTs target poor families with children 0–15 or 0–18 years old, and designate women as recipients of the cash transfers.

18. Monitoring and evaluation. One of the most important lessons learned relates to the need for independent rigorous evaluation and monitoring to ensure effectiveness and success, reinforced by good governance, and political support at the highest levels (e.g., Bolsa Brazil was launched by former president Lula da Silva). With support from international financial institutions, countries have developed good monitoring systems including the use of Management Information Systems (MIS) to monitor program implementation. Brazil has pioneered the development of a results framework, including targets for capacity development, and advanced information systems and instruments to monitor and evaluate project implementation, impacts and outcomes.

19. Preconditions and limitations. From the institutional point of view, CCT programs should be managed by existing government agencies and institutions with regional and municipal presence that have to be endowed with the necessary capacity to deliver expected results. Experience suggests that in large countries the assistance of local governments and the participation of civil society in the delivery of public services are essential. Effective coordination will also help integrating CCT programs into broader social programs, as CCTs are usually complemented with other interventions, such as social pensions and employment programs for a sharper impact, or linked to non conditional cash transfers.

20. As the intended target of CCTs is to increase the access of the poor to education and health care services, reliance on sufficient infrastructure for the delivery of social services is a fundamental pre-condition for success. This includes adequate schooling and health care facilities, access to financial services in rural areas, and mobile payment facilities in remote regions. Lack of adequate social infrastructure explains the failure of attempts to implement CCTs in African countries. Consequently, evidence suggests that CCTs achieve greater results in middle and upper-middle income countries, which have sufficient infrastructure to provide the expected public services.

�　Proxy means tests or models (PMT) estimate per capita income or consumption based on a series of observable variables, including demographic composition of the family, educational background, ownership of durable assets, housing conditions and public service availability. PMTs provide objective and uniform criteria to assess families’ eligibility without requiring supporting documents, and the electronic database thus created can be used for program registration.


8

观察与建议

V. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE PRC

21. After reviewing some of the successful international experiences, it could be concluded that the encouraging results in human development, low cost, flexibility, and significant population coverage means that CCTs are an effective and fiscally sustainable tool for long-term poverty reduction. Its potential implementation in the PRC appears particularly relevant in light of the recent upward revision of the official poverty line, which has increased the poverty headcount from 28 to 128 million people.

22. More specifically, the nutrition component of CCT programs would help reduce malnourishment among the poor children as, according to the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the PRC has the second-largest number of undersized children in the world, and one in five children in rural areas are anemic. In terms of the education component, as the levels of enrollment in primary education are high in the PRC, the program could target secondary education and vocational training. In this connection, a trial CCT conducted in the PRC in 2009 on �00 junior high school students in a poor county in the Northwest region resulted in a 60% reduction in dropouts.

2�. Gradual implementation and targeting. The program could be implemented gradually identifying a series of pilot cases in rural areas to test approaches, evaluate the results, fine-tune the design, and make necessary operational adjustments prior to further extension in rural areas. At a later stage, the scope of the program could be expanded to cover vulnerable groups such as the elderly, disabled, and the urban poor, considering potential synergies with the dibao system (e.g., it is common to integrate conditional and non conditional cash programs to cover the different dimensions of poverty, as for instance, CCTs are not suitable for childless poor). In this process, targeting is essential, first by limiting the beneficiaries group to those whose income is below the poverty line, and second, by establishing a good targeting mechanism. Given its proven results, the use of proxy means tests is recommended.

2�. Defining the benefit. Given the relatively low cost of the program, and the solid fiscal position of the government, a relatively high cash transfer could be provided (around 20% of households’ income). The introduction of inflation adjustment mechanism for benefit levels would help avoid income erosion, as the poor are the hardest hit by inflationary pressures, which would distort the income gains under the program and thus limit its effectiveness. The delivery of the benefit should vary depending on remoteness and access to financial services, but it is recommended to transfer the benefit directly to the beneficiary to reduce transaction costs, and minimize leakages and corruption. A wide range of delivery instruments could be used, including banks transfers, ATMs, post offices, and armored cars.

25. Monitoring and evaluation. Rigorous monitoring mechanisms are crucial to measure progress and address potential implementation flaws. Due to its efficiency, it is recommended to adopt a MIS to monitor implementation. A key factor in this process would be to introduce mechanisms for frequent verification of compliance with conditionality, including sanctions for failure. Equally important is to create an impact evaluation system (e.g., a results framework) to assess progress in the delivery and quality of outcomes.

9



26. Establishing the institutional framework. Given the vast geographical size of the country, successful implementation will heavily depend on local governments’ participation at all levels (central, provincial, municipal, and county). To ensure effective coordination, it is recommended to establish a national steering committee to lead strategic planning, policy making, and budget procedures, the structure of which should be replicated at corresponding local levels of government. Capacity building should be upgraded accordingly at all levels. In terms of the actual delivery of social services, nonprofit organizations (NPOs) could be engaged to connect communities with program providers.

27. Strengthening universal social security coverage. Notwithstanding their success, CCTs are limited in scope, and must be set in a broader framework of social welfare and economic development policy making. Being narrowly focused and targeting only the extreme poor, CCTs lack the scope to address the overall inadequate supply of basic social services. For that reason, ongoing initiatives in the PRC to develop a comprehensive social security system with universal coverage should be strengthened in parallel, in particular continuing pension reform in rural areas, and addressing the specific needs of migrant workers.


10

观察与建议

一、引言

1. 中国经济快速增长的成果没有使所有民众和地区均衡受益。城乡之间及城市居民之间的收入差距日益扩大。如今，城市收入比农村地区的收入高近3.5倍。地区差别也不断加大，中西部地区在社会和经济发展方面落后于东部地区。因此，收入不平等不断恶化。如今，中国的基尼系数（一种常用的衡量收入分配差距的指标）是0.47，为世界上最高的国家之一。

2. 收入差距不断加大给中国政府的包容性、均衡发展战略带来了重大挑战。这个问题如果得不到解决，将会抑制消费，制约贫困地区的发展，引发社会矛盾，从而阻碍中国未来的发展。因此，必须完善收入再分配政策和加强社会保障，以弥合收入差距。

3. 在这方面，可以借鉴拉美国家在缩小收入差距做法上的成功经验。拉丁美洲曾是世界上收入最不平等的地区（其基尼系数为0.45~0.60，而亚洲为0.32~0.58），但过去十年来，该地区大多数国家的收入不平等状况得到了缓解，平均基尼系数在2002年至2008年间下降了0.29点。收入不平等状况的改善得益于教育水平的提高、劳动力市场的改革和先进社会政策的实施。其中，有条件现金转移支付（CCT）项目的发起被认为是减贫政策上的一个突破。

4. 继在拉美和加勒比地区取得令人满意的成果后，有条件现金转移支付项目被引入印度尼西亚、摩洛哥、巴基斯坦、菲律宾、南非和土耳其等国，以及纽约和华盛顿特区等城市。有条件现金转移支付项目作为一种减小收入不平等的方法在世界各地得到普遍采用，这表明探讨（通过这种方法）解决中国的贫困问题是有意义的。本政策建议旨在通过回顾成功的国际做法，提出合适的建议。

二、有条件现金转移支付

5. 有条件现金转移支付是一种社会保障项目，这种项目向赤贫家庭提供现金资助，但受益家庭

必须遵从一系列条件，包括保证子女上学和接受医疗保健和其他社会服务。作为一种多维减贫方法，

有条件现金转移支付项目覆盖了之前从未真正受益于其他社会保障项目的最弱势群体，并正在提高他

们的生活水平。

6. 有条件现金转移支付的理念是从实证研究中总结而来。证据表明，健康状况的改善和教育水

平的提高（特别是儿童）对人力资本的形成至关重要，因为低水平的营养、健康和教育与低收入和贫

困的恶性循环息息相关。而且，教育水平改善所带来的人力资本提高会在打破贫穷的世代传承上发挥

重要作用。此外，一些有条件现金转移支付项目的成果表明，由于现金转移支付常常作为小额贷款的

担保提供给项目参加者，便于他们增加用于生产活动的投资，从而有助于永久性地提高他们的收入。

7. 有条件现金转移支付项目以赤贫家庭为目标群体，极具先进性。其项目成果对实现“千禧年

发展目标”具有重要作用。许多有条件现金转移支付的成功案例源自两个最大项目实施成果的启发，

即巴西的“家庭补助金”（Bolsa Familia）项目和墨西哥的“机会”（Oportunidades）项目。这两个项目

分别覆盖了四分之一和五分之一的本国家庭，所用资金不多（不到GDP的0.5%）但成就令人鼓舞：总

体贫困水平减小了约4%，家庭收入与贫困线之间的差距缩小了21%。最近，有条件现金转移支付项目

正被引入亚洲，并已取得令人欣喜的成果，如菲律宾的“菲律宾家庭桥梁构建”（Pantawid Pamilyang

11



Pilipino）项目1和印度尼西亚的“希望家庭”（Keluarga Harapan）项目。后者是一个由无条件现金转移

支付项目转变为有条件现金转移支付项目的案例。

8. 证据还显示，有条件现金转移支付项目可以促进社会性支出的再分配，将效果欠佳的不针对

具体目标群体的公共开支转为有针对性的现金转移支付，从而有助于稀缺资源用得其所。这样还可

以降低交易成本，并便于把多种社会保障方案整合到一个项目中，例如，巴西的“家庭补助金”（Bolsa Familia）项目合并了原有四项为贫困人口提供食品、健康、教育和能源的社会保障项目。

9. 有条件现金转移支付的其他优势包括灵活性强，可以根据所在国的具体情况因地制宜地实

施。这一特点赋予有条件现金转移支付项目形式的多样性，既可以是覆盖面广的大项目，也可以是小

范围的试点项目；既可以是采用综合减贫方式的项目，也可以是针对某一具体领域的项目。例如，阿根

廷的“失业男女家长”（Jefes y Jefas del Hogar Desocupados）项目着重于提供就业机会和培训，厄瓜

多尔的“人力开发保证金”（Bono de Desarrollo Humano）项目为残疾人和老年人无条件提供支持，智

利的“互助”（Solidario）项目开发了一种创新性社会心理福利减贫方法，从心理上激励项目参加者，

增强其自信和能力，并为其提供培训。在亚洲，孟加拉的“女童中学援助”项目（Female Secondary School Assistance Program）就仅为女童接受中学教育提供帮助。

三、有条件现金转移支付项目的成效�

10. 通过对项目成效进行分析，营养水平的大幅提高和预防医疗与免疫服务的获取使儿童染病

机率下降，身高体重发育得更好。在墨西哥，与对照组对比，有条件现金转移支付项目受益儿童在两年

时间里身高增加了一公分。尼加拉瓜的“社会保障网络”（Red de Proteccion Social）项目开始后不久，

免疫医疗服务的获取率就提高了18%。

11. 教育方面效果也很好。在厄瓜多尔，仅仅两年时间中学入学率就提高了10%，受益家庭中童工

减少了17%。墨西哥农村地区的成效也很显著，辍学率减少了24%，中学毕业率提高了23%。

12. 在不同项目下，贫困人群的平均消费数量均有所增长，增长率从15%（哥伦比亚）到30%（洪

都拉斯）不等。这一点从大多数国家农村贫困差距的缩小和贫困人口的大量减少中可以显现出来。比

如，墨西哥的农村穷困差距缩小了36.1%，尼加拉瓜缩小了18.1%；这两个国家在项目开展两年后贫困

人口分别减少了10%和7%。

1 亚洲开发银行利用“社会保障支持”项目（贷款2662—菲律宾， Loan 2662-PHI:Social Protection Support Project）资金支持了该项目的实施。

2 此章节主要讨论的是拉丁美洲国家实施有条件现金转移支付项目的经验，因为这些国家开展此类项目时间较长，有大量评估报告可以参阅。


12

观察与建议

13. 有条件现金转移支付项目对消费也产生了长期的积极影响，即使是在项目受益者退出项目之

后。在有些情况下，项目提供了较大数额的现金转移支付，这使得更多的项目受益者可以用这笔资金开

始经营微型企业或是用于增加对农牧业的投资。在这方面，有些有条件现金转移支付项目使得更多贫

困人口可以享受金融服务（如在墨西哥、巴西和哥伦比亚）。通过被允许把现金转移支付用作贷款担

保，或金融机构因申请人的项目参加者身份而减少对小额贷款的审查和交易成本，更多的项目参加者

得以申请到贷款。

四、可供借鉴的经验

14. 条件性。条件性制度对保证有条件现金转移支付项目在促进人力资本开发上的成效是必

不可少的，因为无条件的现金转移支付不一定会转化为受教育水平的提高（贫困家庭的父母投资教育

的可能性小，而是选择让孩子做工），也不一定会通过促使项目受益者开展微型创业活动或增加的就

业机会而产生长期影响。另外，如果不设置条件限制，受益家庭获得现金转移支付后可能会把这些钱

存起来，这对提高受益者消费水平的作用微乎其微。因此，不设条件的现金转移支付不会打破世代贫

穷。而条件性制度一旦确立，就必须执行和核查。对条件的遵从率在现有项目中一直很高（比如，在巴

西、墨西哥和萨尔瓦多均超过90%）。

15. 规模和覆盖范围。由于有条件现金转移支付项目在规模上可灵活变动，大多数国家选择逐步

实施：先进行项目试点，然后进行评估和调整，之后再扩大项目规模。应当注意的是，虽然有条件现金

转移支付项目在实施初期几年里成本较大，但这些成本会分摊在随后整个项目执行期。并且，与传统

的公共政策项目相比，有条件现金转移支付项目的总体成本并不大。例如，能源补贴项目（这种项目已

很不合时宜）普遍占GDP的5%~8%，而有代表性的有条件现金转移支付项目只占GDP的0.1%~0.5%。

16. 在支付金额和周期方面，各国情况不一。现金转移支付通常占贫困家庭平均收入的

12%~20%，付款周期取决于金融服务的近便程度，最常见的是两个月一次。转移支付中常常包含一项

性别平等的内容，即为女孩教育提供更多的资源，特别是在中学教育上。项目持续时间长短不一，但

为取得理想的效果项目往往是长期的。例如，墨西哥的“机会”（Oportunidades）项目期限为40年，但

参加者可以通过灵活退出机制提前退出。

17. 确定目标群体。通过选择收入低于官方贫困线并符合项目条件的贫困家庭作为目标群体，避

免了遗漏或资源分配不当，这是保证项目成功进行的决定因素。在有些国家，80%的转移支付款达至

40%的赤贫家庭。在阿根廷，96%的受益者是穷人，转移支付款达至整个国家72%的失业人员。而在过

去的减贫项目中，大部分（80%）转移支付款实际发给了非贫困者。大多数国家在国际金融机构的支持

下，引入了统一的家庭登记制度，并开发了目标群体确定机制，主要是采用“代理家庭经济状况调查模

1�



型”3（proxy means tests-PMT）。大多数有条件现金转移支付项目把拥有0~15岁或0~18岁儿童或青少

年的贫困家庭作为目标群体，并指定妇女为转移支付款接受人。

18. 监测与评估。可借鉴的最重要的经验之一是，项目的高效和成功离不开严格的独立评估和监

测，也得益于以良好的管理和来自高层领导人的政治支持，如巴西的“家庭补助金”（Bolsa Familia）项目由该国前总统卢拉（Lula da Silva）发起。在国际金融机构的支持下，实施项目的国家开发了有效的

监测系统，包括利用“管理信息系统”（MIS）监测项目的实施。巴西率先开发了一个效果评估框架（包

括能力开发指标）和先进的信息系统与工具，监测和评估项目的实施、影响和效果。

19. 前提和制约因素。在管理机构方面，有条件现金转移支付项目应由所在地区和城市的现有政

府机构和部门管理，这些机构和部门要具备达成预定目标所必需的能力。经验表明，在比较大的国家

里，地方政府的支持和民间团体的参与在提供公共服务方面是非常重要的。有效的协作也有助于将有

条件现金转移支付项目整合到综合社会保障项目中，一方面由于该类项目的实施经常和其他一些社会

保障项目（如社会养老金项目和就业项目）的实施互为补充，相得益彰，整合在一起便于发挥更大的

项目影响；另一方面则因为该类项目也经常与一些无条件现金转移支付项目联系起来一并实施。

20. 有条件现金转移支付项目实施的主要目的是为了给贫困人口提供更多接受教育和医疗服务的

机会，而这些社会服务的提供依赖于相应的基础设施，所以拥有充足的基础设施是项目成功的一个

基本前提。这些基础设施包括学校教育设施、医疗设施、农村地区的金融服务设施和偏远地区的移

动支付设施。非洲国家正是由于缺乏足够的社会基础设施，因而无法开展有条件现金转移支付项目。

因此，证据表明，有条件现金转移支付项目在中等和中高等收入国家能够取得更大的成效，正是由于

这些国家拥有提供有关公共服务所必需的充足的基础设施。

五、给中国的政策建议

21. 通过回顾成功的国际经验可知，有条件现金转移支付项目在人力开发、低成本、灵活性和高

人口覆盖率等方面的综合成效意味着其是一种有效且具有财政可持续性的长期减贫方法。此外，由

于中国政府最近上调了贫困线，界定的贫困人口总数从2,800万增加为1.28亿，因而在中国开展有条件

现金转移支付显得正当其时。

22. 具体而言，有条件现金转移支付项目下营养子项目有助于改善中国贫困儿童营养不良状况。

据中国疾病防控中心称，中国身高低于正常值的儿童数量在世界上居第二位，并且农村地区有五分之

一的儿童贫血。而就教育子项目而言，由于中国的初等教育入学率较高，项目在中国的实施应更加着

眼于高中教育和职业教育方面。在这一背景下，2009年，有条件现金转移支付项目在中国西北的一个

贫困县进行了试点，项目参加者是300名初中生，该项目的实施使辍学率降低了60%。

3　代理家庭经济状况调查模型（PMT）用来根据一系列通过观察得出的可变因素估计人均收入或消费，这些可变因素包括家庭人口组成、教育背景、耐用资产拥有情况、居住条件和公共服务的可利用性。这种模型为评估家庭受援资格提供客观、统一的评估标准，而无需支持性文件，而且，据此创建的电子数据库可用来进行项目登记。


1�

观察与建议

23. 逐步实施与确定目标群体。项目可以逐步实施，在农村地区开展一系列试点，通过试点检测

方法，评估结果，微调方案，并进行必要的操作调整，然后再进一步推广。在项目后期可以扩展项目的

受益群体范围，使其覆盖老人、残疾人和城市贫困者等弱势群体，并考虑与“低保“项目配套实施（即

将有条件现金支付项目和无条件现金支付项目整合在一起以更好地解决不同特点的贫困问题是非常

普遍的做法，比如，有条件现金支付项目就不适合解决无子女的贫困人口的贫困问题）。在此过程中，

确定目标群体是必不可少的。就如何确定而言，首先应把受益群体限定为收入低于贫困线者，其次是

建立一种有效的目标群体确定机制。由于实践表明“代理家庭经济状况调查模型”（PMT）效果良好，

因此建议采用这种模型。

24. 确定转移支付额度。考虑到项目的成本较低，政府的财政状况殷实，提供的现金转移支付可

以多些（约占家庭收入的20%）。采用现金转移支付通胀调节机制有助于避免收入贬值，因为穷人受

通胀压力影响最大，通货膨胀会使他们获得的项目收益变相减少，从而影响项目效果。现金转移支付

的发放方式应因情而异，取决于项目地点的偏远程度和金融服务的可获取性等因素。但是，建议把现

金转移支付款直接发给受益人，以减少交易成本及避免挪用和贪污。拉美国家正在实施的有条件现金

转移支付项目采用多种方法发放方式，包括银行转账、通过自动取款机提款（ATMs）、邮局汇款、和

武装押运送款。

25. 监测与评估。严格的监测机制是至关重要的，通过严格监测可以掌握项目进展，及时解决项

目实施过程中潜在的不足。建议采用“管理信息系统”（MIS）监测项目的实施，因为这种系统效率很

高。在此过程中，很重要的一点是要引入条件遵从情况核查机制，每四个月对条件遵从情况进行一次

核查，对违规情况进行惩处。同样重要的是建立效果评估体系（即效果评估框架），以评估转移支付

款发放进展和项目成效。

26. 建立机构框架。鉴于中国幅员辽阔，项目的成功实施需要依靠各级政府（中央、省、市和

县）的广泛参与。为确保有效协调，建议就该项目设立一个国家指导委员会，负责组织战略规划编制、

政策制定和财政预算安排，地方各级政府相应成立对口单位。各级政府的能力建设也应得到相应提

升。在提供社会服务方面，可以聘请非赢利性组织从事项目目标群体与项目管理者之间的联系工作。

27. 加强社会保障的全民覆盖。尽管有条件现金转移支付项目是成功的，但鉴于其所能解决的问

题的局限性，项目必须置于社会福利和经济发展宏观决策框架下实施。由于只针对赤贫人群并解决其

特定问题，该项目不能解决基本社会服务供应总体不足的问题。为此，在开展该项目的同时，中国应

进一步完善正在实施的建立覆盖全体国民的综合社保体系的举措，尤其是要继续进行农村养老保险

改革和解决外来务工人员的具体需求。

亚洲开发银行

Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City1550 Metro Manila, Philippines（菲律宾马尼拉）

www.adb.org

亚洲开发银行驻中国代表处北京朝阳区建国门外大街1号国贸大厦（三期）17层邮编：10000�[email protected] www.adb.org/prc cn.adb.org

Produced in the PRC 在中国印制

About the Asian Development Bank关于亚洲开发银行

ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries substantially reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to two-thirds of the world’s poor: 1.8 billion people who live on less than $2 a day, with 903 million struggling on less than $1.25 a day. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance.

亚行的远景目标是实现没有贫困的亚洲和太平洋。亚行的工作旨在帮助其发展中成员显著地减少贫困，改善人民生活质量。尽管亚太地区发展迅速，但该地区的贫困人口仍然占全世界贫困人口总数的三分之二：18亿人口日均生活费用低于2美元，9.0�亿人口挣扎在日均生活费1.25美元的贫困线以下。亚行致力于通过共享式经济增长、环境可持续的增长和区域融合等战略来减少亚太地区的贫困。

亚行总部在菲律宾首都马尼拉，现有67个成员体，其中亚太地区成员�8个。它主要通过政策对话、贷款、股本投资、担保、赠款以及技术援助等手段向成员体提供帮助。