thesis

160

Upload: catalina-galer

Post on 22-May-2017

212 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

!"##$ ##%&'%(")"*+ * +,-* . +/

#0"%#1#%#'$%(##0$#'1$#( #'## $1'$$'(#( '( 2 &2 1# 0#( %#%$(2##%2##%'1#%

#0&30### '31&

3&0##4%50

#61(782#(#%#0%

3,+'..

6

%%#'.*+#4

'# 1'' 19:& 1!9& 1;% ;'

i

!0'$##'$<###1# 1 %% %# ##$ ## 2# # %)%#' , = $ ,+ # # %#'# 1 ' '#1 #>0#$147&$( # ?#1 #%&1@'$A@A'$%%0######' % ## 0 # %%##$ # ## 2# '$ #(21#2#2#%#(# (%0%(0''#(B (3111((1(#&2'##'#'#%( #'#C(# 2D# #( #2 #%'$##!&E%#(2&##&&1'#'#$1''$%3#$0'##%'$2##(20'10'#'(0#1%#F 2' 1 ''# '0'# $%(2 %' 00 # $ #1 #<#3#$<&5'(6#4(&6(1##%3#G%#$H%###!''1 # 0#''##(;%;'(#:& !' 9&( 1 # 2 # # #'%## & 1 % 2# '$ # 1' %''11# ### ## # 1 # ' ## # ''D # ' %# ' 0$ % ## ;$)$5#%3## % '02#4#5 I ## # 1 # '$ '2####

ii

&&( $ 0 <( 2# 7&'( ;C 4 <5(& #( )' ( F( :$ 6'( 6&6&( 6 #( & # # 1 # ' '#%#'#(### '%#'#(#)6)!2$$###01#2&G@#.,AH # )#' #111 #F3&#1# GF7H ## ! 8 1 0# ' # 2& @# %1A # ####( 1 # %##$ '$ #$ 8 ;%# ####'$0#20$2#2%#1''$(2&##&!$#'1###1%#'####%1$6$%#(&6(1#26& ( ' #( :0&'%( '( $I0#( ' )## 0 )## 1# 12# #$#$##&#%##'###( # %1######& 0E### ##2#'2&% #%'$#1##01(#2%$#&0J#$(4(,%,+

iii

.. ##B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B .

., 6%###$B B B B B B B B B B B B

. ###$'2#B B B B B B B -

.- <'$(5##0B B B B B B

. !'###$B B B B B B B B B B B +

.K #B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B .

! !

,. ##B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B .,, 7#$B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B ., <#1#$#B B B B B B B B B B B .*,- ###$'%#0###B B B B B B ,, !'%#1%###$'2#B B .,K #$B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B , ;B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B *,:#1%###$#(1#-,<%#0###B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B -

" # #

. ##B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B -

iv

, #1$2##B B B B B B B B B B B -* '%$B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B *- #$B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B K ;B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B K*

!$ %&'#()

-. ##B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B -, ###B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B - <#'#B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B -- #'##B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B +-- #$B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B *.-K ;B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B *-;#2#2##6<6#;B B *K-;#2#2##6<6#6B B *+-;<%#0###B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B .

* +

. ##B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B .., ###B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B . <#'#B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B .- #'##B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B ..- 7#$B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B ..K ;B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B .,-

, B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B .,-B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B ...)/'0B B B B B B B B B B B B .-

1

!

.**( < "# 0 # " 5 ' 1 % 2& ### ' 0%'#### # '$ 0 ## ## ## '## !$ ' % 1 1' ## G( 2(###H(1'##G'10(0#(1'% 1 #H( # 1'# ## G"#(.**H # 2 ### # ## % ##0 ## 1 ##$ %#'5 # "#D # ##?###0'#1#'2$?$200 %1' 11#$ 11# ### #'%# 1 '$ # ' ### ( # #%$#2 ### '#' %$ %'# #1 1 %# '( 2 2$ 1 # '# #0 ' G !( ,( % 0L <5(,(%H

# #( 11# ?###0 '# # #$ #?1%###$# ''$####%# ##$ ##$ 2# %# #1# ### '%(#$11###01((1'(%#G;'(,H

) # 1 %# ##$ #$ # #$0(#%01'$#1#%##('$1##(12#12%''%9:%#G.*KH1'###$(%&1@#%###1%#'$A@#B 1'3%#'0'# %% # # '# 1 # 'A 6 )#0 G.*.H ' 1# %#5 ## %###$ @ # %# $#' 2 # ###5

2

%##1##$&2A(###@#%#'%#%# ## % $ %# 0A ' 11# 0$ ) G.*+.H(2 ## %# ##$ @# ## #2 # 1 # # 0'#( ' ''#$ 0# 1' #%0 $#' %1 M'D %##A 6 #$( ( 5()2G.**KH1%###$#%%#$1 # #0 %2( # $ ### ###' ' %# ##$ ( $ %&( 1 #' 1(#(#%#$#'

%#1'#0#$1#1%###$(### ' '#$ 2# %# # # ''# 1 %###$ $( # ## # #%#$ $#' '$ #& '$ 1' 7 '%( ## G.**KH 11# 0 %# %# 0( % D## %# #( #$ # '%#1%# ##$'2###(#G.**KH#%###$ ''3 ' 0'#2 #$#$##%2#'2#%#1'#%D##(0&' 0#'##02$'%##%$%###$

20( # #0 ## 1?# # #"#0 #%,, ,0 #'? % D## #'#$ #&0 ! )%#' ,K"# #'# ### '#2 %1$%## '& ' # # <1()(##%#F$1##,#

##$#?1%###$(# '%## # &2 2# 11# %# ##$ % #$'!1( #1#'1# # #1#$#1%###$##'%###$#'#1# #7#'( #$2##%#1%###$'%$

9#''###(##'#1#11#1%###$'2#!0##' G )0( .**+H ## %# 0 11# 1 %###$'2#(#G22H#'%1'2&2##%##'%0%

! # ' # #$ #2%##1%# #$%1%# ##$ 7#$( # 2 ' 2#( 2'#('#5#5##0!

3

$%$####1;G,H(2'## # '#5# 5# 20 % 1#&#0%#1#0%2)$(#2#2##'11####$1#!0 2$ #' &$ # 11# # %1 ###$1#!2%###2 #' # ##$ 2 3# # '%$

!'1#%##%#'##1##

1!!1# '1 # # #' %# ##$ '%##%'#%###%###$#0#$!# ( %# ##$ ## ## ! %$ 1 %###$(#0###07'%(G.**.H # '1%#0#%D##( 2 #'1%## ##( I G,H #&#'1'30'##'1# # %1 %# ##$!0 %# ##$# # ' 1'# # # # 0 1 %###$( # #$ 11 1' ''# !# ( 0$##'%#1%###$

!'%1$1#G$H0'##$(# ' 1 %# ##$( # # %$ $ G.**.H2#' #!%$ ##'#2D%# ##$ %$ %#$0 '%$'%###%'2 ##& #'1##$##'#0#2#(11#%#'1'####01%###$# ##N60(2# 111# # # 1'##11##$%1%###$N

# 2# #&1?#( 0 # 0##0#?#'%###$4%#G.**H(1 #( ## 1 %# ##$ '#$ 11# %% 12 $( 1 #( ;&'( 2!G.**,H(#G.**KH(7G,H(211#%#0# '0 #' #

4

%##%#$10'#!%#%#$10'# # %$ 1 %# ##$ J#(#''###$12$G.*H(6)#0G.*.H(## G.**KH(2'%# ##$%% '%# $ # %%( 2# 0 1 ''1%###$###1##01#1%###$#

)'1 # # ## # %% '%# 1'2&(###1$11#'1%###$6)#0G.*.H(020###'#'#$1%# ##$%#1#2 #2G!#(.*KKH' G7 7( .*KKH 6 )#0#'0 ## %# ##$ # '( (''##$(###$(%##'

# #( ###01'2&2 6%1$( %#$ 7# $ # ' %###$#1#$ &#%%'%#$(##11#######'####'1#0##1#(21#$'##$#1'#''##G9&63(,H

!'1#11#2##$2&7#$(#1##5#$%0#$(( # $ # , #( 2 0 # #)$(###%02&(##$%#%%%#'1'#10#####!$( # #$ # ## # 11# ' # #2##(####1&2'%%0#7$(#''#1#0# #11#'1%# ##$3###$'%

" !'1# # #'2#%# ##$'2#$#!02$%###$'$11#'2#6#0$(0### ' '$ ' #$ %$ %# 11# %#0 60( %# ##$ '$ '% 1' #'#11'1'#%#&$##

5

# ' 1#( %# 1 # 1# 2 12 # 1#'# G)0( .**+H " '## 2# 1'2& ( ###%# 0$%# ##$ '2##0$# 7' '% %# 102( # #%#2 %###$'2###'$### 1 # #%( # # ' G : (.**L(.**.L:0#(.**,L#.**KL##(.**KL;(.**L) 6#(.**L7(.**(;'%"#(,,()#'(,H

!#1$#0 #'#' #'%# %# ' #( < G,( % ,+.H ## @#'#$$'#1#'$#?###&#A#'00##1#'##(''# # ##'# 1 # #' ' '2#$

! 1# ## # #$ # %' 1''# ( 0 %1 %# ##$###''#'$##'#1#'%#1%# ##$ ' 2# 7#'( 11## '$ 0$ # 11# # # G'#%H 1#$ % ## %% #( #0 #1'#1#$%01#'%$$

!'&'#'#'#1'2##'$6&2('9G.**,HG('(.**H(2 # )2 G.*KH 2# ' # #$( #' %1# '#2# #%# ##$0 # 1' # 1# $ ! #'# # '( #$'%$#'456#16'##'#1G.**+H2(200#0#%#'# 7#$( # %% 2 #' # %# #%# 0 2 #$ 1 11# ! ## %$'%##'$#'#1'2# #' 0##1$#$111#7#'(#%%1#%2##%###$1%###$$ 0 1 %# ##$ #'# 0 7$( #%%#0#2#%###$4 '2# G4( .*+H!# ( #2 0#2# %###$% #'2##%#1''#1###2%###$

6

'2#( #20##2###11#'1%###$011#11#'2# %# 1' %#$ 0 ## ' 2# ( #2# 1'2& # '%## '## <1(!'%G,H(1#(##0 #$ $ # #$ 7#'( #$2# $0$ # '%# # '%%%#1# ##(2$0$12###2##0 %10G<( ,H. ! '%1 $ # 2& 1 ### G,H( 2#1 11# 2# %## ( %#( '# #7#'(&G,H %# ## #-+#0%####&#'0%'#.* !#&#1###2#%##0#0# # 1 # #'# 1 # 2# %## G5'2&( ,KL &( ,L &( ,('(&###(,H

! 1# ' # 11# 1 %# ##$ '2#( #%%$'# G,H '%$ ## #$#'%#12##1###%%$%1%2#'!$1'# G,H '%0 % 7#$( # ## # # ## # %# ' 0! 2# # # 2 ' !1#( # #'1#1###'%$##1$2###22###1#%'#'###'1 # '% ##0 # ## '% #1# ! # '%0'# # #$ '# #'%1# #1##'# #!# (&' # G,H2 #'# #' $ %#'( # #$ #& # # # % ' 1 # #!1( #' #'##1# ##&#1#$111#7$(##$&2##11##0#''%0#0#$##0'1'

.I#0#1%'(##%%'1#3#1$ # ###2 0# #1? #2##0#2%#?&G###(,H

7

$ '#()! # '1 # # # ' # 1 11# #$%1%# ##$!1# #$%1 ##$ '# #0 ; G,H # # #$ 1 # %# '$ # 0% #$2$ #0 # $ ) ##( # % 1 # '#$ ##'# '$ # %'3#$( '#5# 5##0 '% ## ## # %%# # %# 1 #; 9# 3# # %# 1 D #2 '%%#( #$ #'# ## 0#$%#1# %0# '$ # # = #$ M'$'# # 0$ 0 1 #$D G;( , % -H 9 D#$ ' 2# 1 # .*+ .** 0'1 ( # %%# ' 2###10#;%%#$!$2'#''2#%%#$####)#'!'0(2%##$2%%$#'#%#1#'''## ;0&###$D'3###.**+G;(,%-H

4 G,H %0 ## 1# 1 ;D # ' 1 # '&# 1 # # %%$ 1 #'&#(%#2#11# '##'%#111 ' 1 # ##D %%# # # # # ! %%#(#$%%$#1##'%####'##2'#$!'1#'&##1#0###'$0##'20(#2#0# % # #0 # 1 # # ## ! #0% # # 11# # ## 1# 1&2 ### 9 # ( 1( ( ( 21#2(1##'##2##'#$(##$%#?'2#'#,

;D '% # '&# '# '#$ #%#0G#$%$''1H##'$

,!#$14G,H##15#20(#'% 0 G # 0$ $ 4 0&( ,H # #0#%#25# ' ?#$!1( # ##5###01'%##%%$#

8

$#'3#$1#%%#G2'%$#H#$1#2##'

'%##2&1#&1;##$ ## %%# #!1##5#12&$'$111'1'#J#($%###1#0#%1#'(##1;'%$##

! ## # #( # '&# '# '# #1';G,H#(###'%2##1'#6# # & # # G6# # & 3#( ,H ## %0'01#1#0#011##0 '% ' #'# ! ' ## #'#'%#1'$(5##0%111#'#####11#!##11# ; G,H ## # 0 & # 2'$( 5# # % 1 '&# '# '#$'##!'#&0#####$%0##07$(##3###0#$

* +!1%###$##2'#'%#( # 2 ' 2# #' # # ###$ # # ' # ## 0## # #%$#2 #' %# G 7$ :( ,L# ;#( ,L )? )( ,H( 12 ###1#G;(,-LF(,KH(####'###$20(#00######%## ! & #2 #' # ##$ ## 2# #0# ## #' 11# %%7 #( #2&12 # #1<# ##!04$6''$( #2&$%%%1#02O")) 0 ## #%%#$ 1 # 2 G # 6'H %# 4# 9 $'#.%#7#'(##"G,H %# ## 1# # ## ##&)%#'..( ,.(4%

)##%OO222%#&'#O

9

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

10

! '% $ '$ ## # # 1# ! %#$ 1 # 1 ' #1 11# # 20( # %#$ 1 #'$%#$111###(#'#1 &( F#5 !& G.**+H 2 # # 1 #% #1#1( # $ %0# # & 2 #1 '%##$##'

, !'1##512

;%# , 2# # ''# 1 %# ##$ !%###2#%#$1#$,#1%###$ ## # # ## 1# 1 #%%%# 1# '( # # 1 # 1# $ %#> # ## #'# #( # ' ' 1 %###$#11'20## #( # #0 3# # #$ '%!%#1#%#1#G4H'%#1#%# ' 1 %# ##$ ' 2# !#% ' '# )22# '#$'%$#'466#'#1G.**+H!%#2##0#$

;%# 1 # #% #2 %# '( ' 1' ' 2# # 7#( ##1'#$2##$'#G,H%#)(1#####'%0%#2&1' # G,H > # # '1 1#( 2' #'# # '# 1 # 1 11# #9#'1%#1''1'(#'%#1#%#'###'!%#2##0#$

;%# - # '% '# 1 # %%# %#12 $ ; G,H ## '# ## 5 #2#'&# '#'#$ #0 #12$ # # 2 # # ( % 1 11#' #'# ## #2 2$ # 2$ ## 11#!#(#(#%# '11#%#!

11

%# 2# #0 # $ # #0#$1 #'%#

;%# ' # '%# 1 #' # ##$ 1#!'1#?#12##'11###1#! ## ( '%' ## #& ###1#%%#1'#'%#1#' ( # $ ## # '%# 1 11# #$% 1#' 2 # ##$1 #' 7#'( # # # ' # #0 '%# 1 #' 11# ## ! %# 2# 0 # & '# 1 # % 1 '% ##$ # #%#2 #'##( 0#1# '%#1#'##'

;%# K %0 0021 #' 1(

12

13

2

14

15

!

!!$ # 2$0 ##%# ##$ #'#1 #'2#%1'1#(#0###%# #0 1# # #2 %# ##$ '2#G4%#(.**L(.**.L#.**KL##(.**KL ;( .**H! # '%'#2# 0##%0##&#2%###$' 2# G #( .**KL & '( .**KL)0( .**+L<0 9( .**+L<$( : 6#( ,-L4#(:8&(,L$()#'(,H 20( # 1'2& 2 # # #2 %###$'2# $5 #$'##&<G,H('#(##'$1#0#'% $ ' 2#( %# ##$( ' 2# 1 ( # 0$ 11# # 0#$ 1 ##'#''#(##%###1#G%0###0H###0##'%$#% G;'% "#( ,,H # %#(21 #''#1%###$ '#&#2%###$'2# ! 0 0 ##'%# # #& # %' 1''#6####01#'%#1%###$ ' 2# 0 ## ' %% '%# $ G;H G##( .**KH( '#

4 This chapter is based on J G,KH G,+H

16

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

! '1# 11#2 # #$ 2&7#$(2#5#1'##,%###$#=##$%0 #$ )$( ## # %0 2&( # #$ % #%%%# '1' #10 ### ##!$( ## # %0 2&( # #$ # ## # 11# ' # #2##7#$(#''#1#0##11#'1%###$3###$'% 7$( # 1# $ # 3# # #0 #$

17

.*-=,1##'%#24#1'###$1#%#'#'2#7#'(21'01#2 2$#$#2'2####$2##1##'2#'%#%#0 !'1#%#512#,,(21$ #1# $' # ,(2 # # 1# $ # # ,-( 2 %0 '%#0 ### 1 # 11# ' 1 %# ##$ # ,( 2 ' # 11# 1 %# ##$ '2# ! #0#$ 1 #'# # ' #,K)#,

3#'#'#'#1%###$2'%$1#$##'#&#%%'%#$(##11##### ##'####'1#0##1#(21#$'##$#1'#''##921$#1#$'K

( # ' 1 # 1# $ ' # %# #1'# ## '' # # 1' # 1'# ## ? # # $ ' ## # 0 # @#A $ '# 1 0 1# '0#'('%'##'%#0'# 1 # # 9 0# %' ' %1(#1#$##%#1#0 1 # 0 ## 0 G# ' 1 %###$H!1#$'2#'#%1#2##12

nnn By εξ += G.H

2##0G'H#10#(#'#11#(R 0#1##0S ' #' ' # # 2# # ## 0 2

K##'#11#$19&63G,H

18

#2##>#'%#(#0'#1#'

Ω+Φ=Σ 'BB G,H2T#%'#50'#(U#0'#1#1#V#GH0'#1##'!1# #' # # 1 ?# G,H 1# # 0% $ # '# 1 # 1# # #'1##0?##0#!##22'''###

9 #'# # 1# # ? 0 2# #'#16'':&> # '#$ '%#(2 2##&1#

)(log 1StrL −Σ+Σ= GH

2#'%0'#1##

0 %#'5 # & 1#( # % ## #1#1#G#5H#1#'11###%###(2'&1#1######1##%#1#($##'#11# # #1 !# ( # '#% 2# $#' '# 2## 11# # ## 1 # # #2#1#'#%###($### '$ # #%# # '# '% ##$( # # 2# 12 1# % !###?##2##%##1##'##(221#'#1#''5##1#'1#1#'# #( #$% #201#1#(2#2##1#9#'#$#'##%#(#%##0 1 # $ 1#( ( # %# ' 1 %###$!01#'1%###$#0###2#0#(#'%%%###'#'#1#1%#

# 2 ## #?01 # ? . @# #$ 1 ##A!#$1 #1#22# # %$ #1#!#(## ?1#1###1#

19

##$ '! ## (2#1# # %#(20 # # %##1 #1#0##

"'!####%$1%###$(2$#0$$## G.**H( G,H( ;' G,H9#1'# 12 ''$ # # <#& ## G,H(## ;#$ & 4 G,H( #$ I G6 (,,H( ## ### G4#(9#( &())#(,,H(<#1####G&(;&(411(F19,.H #1#0$'#0(#0#( # '%# $ # 1# '( 2 ? ## #%# ##$ # @#A$ 12##0( ## #''# #(20 # , %###$ #1 $! #( # 1# #%%, ##%%%##'%1$(21# 11#2#'10###1#%!#( # # 1 # ;4 # # '% # % .*+- = ,(2####%0###'$1#!## $ # % # 1 # ( 2 %0#'# #1 #2'%!1# $ #%.*+- = , #1 , %# ##$ #!# # % .*- = , # 1 ,. %# ##$# # $ $ 0 1 # 0#+ ! % 2 # '# 1 # %# ##$#1#,.

+ 7 $( # $ 01 # % $ 1 ## #1 0# '#&(2#'##1#'. $ 0 G ( ,KH # # # ## # # # ?##0$1#'%

20

!,.;#'#1#%###$#

I

I

I

I

I

W

W

W

W

W

WI

WI

WI

WI

WI

WW

WW

WW

WW

WW

WWI

WWI

.

,,

.

-K

.

.

I

,

*

,

.

I

.

K

.

..

.

I

,

-

,

,

.,

.

I

,

,K

,.

K

.

I

,

-K

.+

.

.

-

.,

.

W

.,

.

.*

..

.

,

.

W

.

+

.K

,.

.

..

,

.-

.

W

.K

,.

.

-

+

.

,

,.

-

.

W

.*

,K

.

-

.-

.*

.

+

.

-

.

W

.

+

.

-

K

.,

.,

.*

-

.

,-

.

WI

.

.

,

,

.

.

-

.

,

-

,K

.

WI

.

,K

,

,-

.+

.K

,

.

,.

.

,K

.+

,K

.

WI

K

*

.

+

,.

-

.,

.*

,-

.*

.

.+

,

-

.

WI

,.

.-

.*

.

.K

.

,

,,

.-

.K

-.

.

WI

,+

.+

-

.

.-

.

,-

,*

,,

,

,.

,*

KK

-

.

WW

+

.

.-

.K

..

.

.,

*

.

,

,-

-

-

.,

.

WW

.,

,.

,

.+

K

.*

.

,*

,

,.

.

,

-

.

WW

.

.,

.,

.

.

-

..

..

.+

,

,.

,*

.+

,.

,K

,

.

+

.

WW

.*

,,

.K

..

,

.

,

,,

+

K-

.

,,

.

,

,*

.

.

WW

.,

*

.

,

.

..

.

.-

.-

-

..

..

.K

.K

.K

.

*

K

.

WWI

.

K

-

.

.,

,

.,

.

.

-

-

,

,

..

,,

+

.

.

,

.

.

WWI

K.

.

+

+

.

*

.+

.K

..

-

*

.

,.

,

,

-+

.,

,

+

.

*

."#!#2%2#11#!''1#GH#(GH)#&(GH421(GIH630'#(GIH(GIH#(GIH0#(GIH

<'##(GWH;%D##(GWH63###(GWH;#(GWH;#1#0(GWH"'1#(GWIH#'(GWIH40'###$(

GWIH ##(GWIH#(GWIH#1#(GWWHJ1#%#$0'#(GWWH7#5#(GWWH5#(GWWH"'10#%$##%1'11(

GWWH601#(GWWIH6'01#(GWWIH02

21

! ## # %%%# ' 1 1# # 7( 2 0### ## 7#( 2 ;#D ## G;#( .*KKH !%'#2#0#0##'11##5##1,.###11#00#0 ###1#((% #0$ %# 1 # 0 # #(####11#%%%#7,.;#D##1#'%

"# !1# % 2 ;#D ## 1 # '%2# ,. # #%.*- ,!#%2;#D##1#'%2#,##%.*+-=,

"#(2 %1' :&# G:H ##(2 '%#11#'####01##'#### 3# # $%# ## # #'# ? 10 1 #G##H11#'*###1##5###3#0##:###0#0 1##1#'(20######7#(2'121#' 2 1 # 2# 0 1 &&D 1'# # #)2#5#"#(2%%$##1'##%%$"G,,H7$(2###1#&G,H(21#''#####G1#&#''H

*7#1#'%G.*-=,(,. #H( #:### K,G% 0H(21#'G.*+- ,(,#H:X**G% 0H

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Factor Number

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Factor Number

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 E

igenvalue

Eigenvalue

22

1 1#'2#11#(2 # # ####11#'#%%%#.

. 9 # F #( 2 ## ## 1# 2#0###'#%##(#1#' 1#2# 0# #(2 # ' 1#2#0##.20(## $2!#('1#?01###'#'#'#5$2G$2(.*.H#1%$%1'G6(.**H

23

!,,##1#'#?0#'#

#

I##9#'

>?

0I##9#'

>?

0

421

*

,

,

.,

+-

+

.

.

0#

.

..

,

*

.*

;09

K

,

.

K

#1#

K

,

.

.-

K

##

-

K

-

.

*

#

--

.

.

-

,

-,

.

.+

-

K

#

,

,K

K

6'01#

K

*

+K

-

-

+

+.

7#5#

+

K

*

K

*

.

.

5#

-

,

K

.

.

-

K

K

K

J1#%#$

11

,

.

,

.

,

.

.

K-

"'1#

.

.

-

+

.+

.K

.

+

+,

.

.,

,.

.

*-

K

.,

.

..

*

#

+

.

*

.

++

.

.

,K

<'##

+

+

-

.-

)#&

.*

K

KK

.-

*

K*

601#

+

.

+

.

*.

*

.K

*

+

*

;#1

#0

+

-

*

.

+

K

-,

;#

.

..

.

K,

.

.,

K

63###

-

.

,*

K+

,*

K,

-

;%Y##

-

.

.,

K

,

K

.

..

K

"'10#%$2

%1'11

,

*

K

+

+

#'

.

,

.*

.

K

.K

,

.

-K

K

630'#

*

,

,+

-,

+

*

,

,

-

40'###$

,

+

K

"#7##'#6'':&!'#1##'!1#%

2##'#1#'%.*-=,(12,.#!#%2##'#

1#'%.*+-=,(12,#7##0%%(#1##

G##'H$

24

!#'# #1# ##1# # 2 #,,)#'##''5###2'1#1#'#G&2#%##'#H(#%######0$#1#(2#2 ##1#! #2# 1###%##1## ###'#0#%11##'% # ( # 1# 1# 1 # ####1%#021!1(2#1#@%#$'#0#0A####2#@'0%##A $ #$ #2#1# # 1# ( #1( 2 # 1# $ ' 1 # ## # # # ##$ 10'#O# 1#5# %5# 0 1# ##1#9#1##@##$#%#'A7$( 0 # ## 1# #%#$( %#(###0#1#1#!1#(#(@##$#%#'A.. %#1'#1#(#,,%###'#1#''#1# 0 #!?01 # #0# # 0 #2#### #$1#1# # ## ' ##' 1'# # # @#A01 %# ##$ ##9(21'#%$1%#$'#0#0(#%#'0%##(#'3#$1#00 %# ? 0 # 2 # # ##0$ ' 0 ## # ### # 1 # %###$'

..9%1'0&#####1#1#$#7#(2' # 1 # 1# ' 2 1 # #2#$ # 21'#')(2'#1#1#'2#$ 2 '## 1' # '% 7$( 2 & 2# # 1# #211#111##'%G. ,$0H#1 $0##1#'%

25

$ !)! 1# 2 # 1# 11# ' 1 %###$###%02&(2####'##!,(#'#21#1#%#! , ;# '# 1 # #1 ' 1 %###$)'%.*- ,

I ## 9# '

I .

## ,Z .

9# + .

' Z ,+Z .Z .

)'%.*+- ,

I ## 9# '

I .

## ,.Z .

9# * - .

' KZ Z K ."# #%% % 2 # # 11##2 #1#1 #11#'1#'%.*-=,#;4#!2%2##11#1#'%.*+-=,0#Z#1###%#0

( # ## # # 1 # '% 0$ '7#'( # ## # 1# # '#$( 2'% ## #$ 1# 11# ' 1 %# ##$(#'#11#1#$111' ! 1# # # 11# ' 1 %###$(221,,1#11###2( ( # "#( ) 7#'( 2 %0& 1 # '# # # # '# # # 1

26

%# ##$' #,-=,-.,! & # ' 0# 1 #$ ! %# &#11#'%#'&2#&#'''01%###$#'''01%###$ # &#11# #( #11#2###0&(##11$'

7 ,, ;'% 1 1# #2 2# ##

"# ;#$ 9X#2( )X( ":<X# "#()<"X) ! ' # 5# 1 # # $ % #(2.X.*-=.*+(,X.**=.*+(B (KX.***=, # 1 1 ,, # ,- = ,-( # 120# ' 7#$( #1 2 ## # '1%# ##$0$#2# #2 # 7#'( #1####'?#%##0#')$(#& 1# ## # % # #% . 1'# GH##'#$% # #%.1$#'!1#021##'#%# #,!$( # ##01# # @2#A' #$%$ # ## 0 '$

.,1#0?#

-1

0

1

2

3

4

BWA ISR NLD SDN 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6

I ##' 9#

27

(2###02#$%$#(# # #2 # @2#A 0 ( 1 #( #'$0G%#$H1'6G,,H* !,-&'####%#$'#0#0

Ranking country obs median minimum r min maximum r max

1 Mongolia 5 -0.60 -0.64 2 -0.48 11

2 Russia 3 -0.59 -0.63 3 -0.29 55

3 Korea, Dem. Rep. 6 -0.59 -0.60 7 -0.55 1

4 Vietnam 6 -0.57 -0.61 5 1.44 95

5 Albania 6 -0.56 -0.60 9 -0.26 57

6 Bulgaria 5 -0.56 -0.60 8 -0.36 46

7 Singapore 6 -0.55 -0.57 16 -0.51 5

8 Japan 5 -0.55 -0.59 12 -0.50 7

9 Taiwan 2 -0.55 -0.57 18 -0.52 3

10 Ivory Coast 6 -0.54 -0.56 21 0.09 77

… … … … … … … …

110 Angola 5 1.51 0.92 114 1.82 98

111 Guatemala 5 1.70 -0.45 87 3.44 114

112 Cambodia 3 1.87 1.52 117 1.96 100

113 Myanmar 3 1.94 0.54 113 2.38 106

114 Peru 5 2.03 1.09 115 3.16 112

115 Lebanon 3 2.09 1.75 118 2.49 108

116 Colombia 6 2.11 0.36 110 6.19 119

117 Sri Lanka 6 2.14 -0.08 104 2.63 109

118 Philippines 5 2.32 1.14 116 3.57 115

119 Afghanistan 4 2.41 1.78 119 3.13 111

Spearman rank correlation with median ranking: 0.83 0.79 "# # #2#&1##1#'1#2&1###$(&1###$#' 11# 01 # %# #$( ' # ' 1#( ''' # ''' 1# ( ' # & # 1 #'''1#6''X#'''1#('#&# 1 # '''1# ! )%' & # # 1 #' & # ''' &( # ' & # ''' &(%#0$

28

!,-&'####'0%##

Ranking country obs median minimum r min maximum r max

1 Uganda 5 -0.56 -0.74 1 -0.42 10

2 Cuba 6 -0.55 -0.56 19 -0.35 15

3 Mozambique 5 -0.54 -0.68 2 -0.30 19

4 Laos 5 -0.54 -0.60 6 -0.40 11

5 Singapore 6 -0.54 -0.58 10 -0.48 6

6 Angola 5 -0.52 -0.62 4 -0.48 5

7 Namibia 2 -0.52 -0.56 18 -0.48 4

8 Gambia 4 -0.51 -0.53 40 -0.50 1

9 Yemen, Rep. 2 -0.50 -0.51 48 -0.49 2

10 Lesotho 4 -0.50 -0.54 33 0.01 47

… … … … … … … …

110 China 6 0.81 0.26 113 1.12 96

111 Serbia 6 0.83 -0.37 82 2.88 111

112 Poland 4 0.88 -0.28 94 3.88 114

113 Argentina 4 1.15 0.32 116 1.95 108

114 Pakistan 2 1.47 1.25 119 1.69 105

115 Israel 6 1.66 0.46 117 3.38 113

116 Korea, Rep. 6 1.94 -0.18 100 6.63 117

117 Russia 3 2.59 -0.12 105 6.54 116

118 South Africa 6 2.65 -0.35 83 6.96 118

119 India 6 3.26 0.00 110 8.38 119

Spearman rank correlation with median ranking: 0.80 0.77 "# # #2#&1##1#'1#2&1###$(&1###$#' 11# 01 # %# #$( ' # ' 1#( ''' # ''' 1# ( ' # & # 1 #'''1#6''#'''1#('#&# 1 # '''1# ! )%' & # # 1 #' & # ''' &( # ' & # ''' &(%#0$

29

!,-&'######$2##%#'

Ranking country obs median minimum r min maximum r max

1 Cambodia 3 -1.34 -1.73 2 -1.25 1

2 Iraq 5 -1.13 -1.25 13 -0.45 19

3 Somalia 3 -1.13 -1.50 6 -0.73 6

4 China 6 -1.11 -1.43 7 -0.55 10

5 Myanmar 3 -1.05 -1.19 18 -0.86 4

6 Russia 3 -1.05 -2.01 1 -0.95 2

7 Mongolia 5 -1.02 -1.33 8 -0.27 31

8 Korea, Dem. Rep. 6 -0.99 -1.20 16 -0.91 3

9 Cuba 6 -0.98 -1.21 15 -0.85 5

10 Romania 5 -0.98 -1.06 29 0.98 80

… … … … … … … …

110 Sweden 6 1.35 0.94 109 1.66 104

111 Denmark 6 1.38 1.22 116 1.76 110

112 Netherlands 6 1.44 0.90 107 1.69 106

113 Belgium 6 1.52 0.89 106 1.94 113

114 Norway 6 1.54 1.20 115 1.71 107

115 Bolivia 4 1.55 1.17 114 1.76 109

116 Ecuador 5 1.64 1.53 118 2.10 115

117 Israel 6 1.68 1.32 117 2.02 114

118 Italy 5 1.93 0.97 110 2.42 118

119 Pakistan 2 1.97 1.72 119 2.22 117

Spearman rank correlation with median ranking: 0.90 0.85 "# # #2#&1##1#'1#2&1###$(&1###$#' 11# 01 # %# #$( ' # ' 1#( ''' # ''' 1# ( ' # & # 1 #'''1#6''#'''1#('#&# 1 # '''1# ! )%' & # # 1 #' & # ''' &( # ' & # ''' &(%#0$

30

! ,- & '# # # # ##$ 1 #%#'

Ranking country obs median minimum r min maximum r max

1 Indonesia 5 -0.86 -0.92 10 -0.15 17

2 Namibia 2 -0.86 -0.90 11 -0.81 1

3 Cuba 6 -0.82 -0.83 25 -0.43 5

4 Jamaica 5 -0.79 -0.82 35 0.04 30

5 Germany 5 -0.77 -1.15 1 -0.41 7

6 Singapore 6 -0.74 -0.84 22 -0.06 24

7 Botswana 6 -0.73 -0.89 13 -0.42 6

8 Cyprus 1 -0.68 -0.68 59 -0.68 2

9 Zimbabwe 5 -0.67 -0.86 17 2.23 111

10 Ivory Coast 6 -0.66 -0.83 32 1.77 99

… … … … … … … …

110 Ecuador 5 0.72 -0.49 84 1.11 78

111 Central African Republic 3 0.81 -0.17 106 0.81 68

112 Cambodia 3 0.91 0.14 112 1.44 90

113 Italy 5 1.02 0.13 111 2.36 113

114 Lebanon 3 1.24 0.76 116 1.79 100

115 Pakistan 2 1.37 0.55 115 2.18 110

116 Afghanistan 4 1.85 0.53 114 2.60 117

117 Niger 2 1.85 1.60 118 2.11 107

118 Bangladesh 1 1.95 1.95 119 1.95 106

119 Burundi 2 2.27 1.32 117 3.21 118

Spearman rank correlation with median ranking: 0.75 0.53 "# # #2#&1##1#'1#2&1###$(&1###$#' 11# 01 # %# #$( ' # ' 1#( ''' # ''' 1# ( ' # & # 1 #'''1#6''#'''1#('#&# 1 # '''1# ! )%' & # # 1 #' & # ''' &( # ' & # ''' &(%#0$

7$(2 '%1# %# 11# '1%###$2#'1G#'#%'#H#####! 2 '% # '1%# 0# %D##1 G.**.H( # #1%## $G.**.H(#1##G.**KH(2;(##2 %% $ G.*H G ;H( #%#%#$10'#1#G.**KH(2

31

#1'#'!,2###2# 0 ## 1# # 11# ' 1 %###$! , ;# #2 # ' 1 %# ##$ #### I ## ' 9#

0#;%G(.**.H +. * -* .

#G(.**.H ,, , .,

;G##(.**KH * , -, -

;##G(.*H ,, *+ , K

;IG(.*H + ,* ,

:#G#(.**KH K- -. .-"# # # #'#$ 0 #0# 1 '%1 #1 # % .*- = , ; #%;'%#

! # 2 ## # $ G.**.H( ## G.**KH 1#%#$'#0#0(2#1G.*H%##02'0%##20(#%### # #$ # # 0 1 # ##$ 1 # %#' 2 # ##$ 2# # %# ' ! ##11#1#'-*G#0#%D##01G.**.H2####$1#%#'H!1 # G.**KH(2 #'( #$##'#$#2###1#1'##2###

* + ! ! > # 2$ # 0 ## 1# 11# ' 1%# ##$( 2 ' # '%# 1 %# ##$ '2#90##1G#H*#1#%.*-=,(2%#%K?%1$# ' #' 2# 11# $( 2 1 #211# %# 1 # # #2 %# ##$ '

32

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

ititittitiit XZgg ελγβϕα +++++= − )ln()ln()ln( 1,

2 # 4<2# #% %# #$ 1 # $%##$[1##$111#\##'111#.- ! 0# # # %#$ 0 1' #)21'2&!0##1##10#'##4<##1%(#01$'##$

.)6&2#G.**,H.-9##1#%1#'111#7 ############'11#?1###3## $%#G#.]10H(2 #'111# #' # # $%# # 3#(2'##'111#1'#%1#

33

# #1% (%%#2##$ % %#1'#0(2#&1':G,H(01'#9!K,G#()''#(,KH ! 0# # # 1 %# ##$ # 1#$ % . 7$( ' #' %% ,#%#0###10#$ ! ,K 2 # #'# # ' .( 2 # #'% 0 1 %# ##$ # 1##1'#.*-=,'%(22#0','-212#'%(##2 # 1# # 1' # .*+- = , '% !%1###1##0 #1$####%#####'1#,K#'%1#

.94#$2#01#%###$#

34

!,K#'##

<%#04<2#%%# G.H G,H GH G-H

11#$ - - +- +-

;#'%04;#$ ;# 4 ;# 4

:4<2#%%# , .- ., K

G.+HZ G..KH G*.H GKH

'##$ -+ -K , -

G,-HZZZ G,.HZZ G..H G,HZZ

60%## . .. .

G..H G+*H G.*H G,.H

9###$ , -*

G.H G.K,H G*.H G,HZZ

#$'#0#0 ., .K ,, .+

G+H G*-H G.*,HZ G+,H

0#'# .- *K + K.

G*HZZZ G,KHZZZ GKHZZZ G.*HZ

)$'# ,. ,

G.H G.H G-H G.,H

%#2# *+ . ,., *

G.-.H GH GKH GK+H

;## .. +, .. K

G.*H G+H G.K-H GH

0# ,, . . ,K

;# * *- +K +

7 ###'111# .+ K,+ , .+

% 0 . -

##1## .. -K *

% 0 .* K- *

##10 #1$## -, KK -.- ,*K

% 0 . . .+

9## +*K -.* *,, ,.-

% 0 "##'#'#)$#'466G(.**+H(;#5 ###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##]LZZZ1##.]##0

7#.*-=,'%(21#####$1#%#'#$'1%###$##1#$#

35

# '2# =# #'% 7 # .*+- =, '%( # # ' 0 ( 2 1 ## # ###$1#%#'###$2##%#'# 11# ' 2# ! '%# 1 # @2#A'( 20( %#0 Q# '&$( 2 1 %1###%#0%#0'%#'2# # # #0(21 ##$ # 0#'# 4< # #$%#0$##'2#

! #'# $ # ## # 11# '011#11#'2#"#$#11##'#11#11(#(51##'#'%#11# # 1 # %#( 2 %0 02 ##2# #### # #%20(21# '##1##'##

,-1# #? # '%2### # # #%% ' %1# <1 Q G.**+H %# # '2# # % ( ( #$ # $0# 11# #$ )'$( # '$ ## '##0 %1##%#0!1(2####0#$1 #'# 1 ##00!0 '$ G ' #& 1' 6 G,,H(52&( 05( ; :' G,H( I G,H(%#0$H( # 12 G;4( ,H( %# G;4( ,H(2?#$ G>!( ,KH( ' 1 % G% $ # F75# 1 <( ,KH( 1# G9 & <0%'##(,KH(#510'#14<G##(,KH'&'(2#%1#1',# ,K G1 #11#1%# ##$1 #'%.*- ,H!#%##, '. *(201##0$ '.(201##0 ##'& %1# # 0 1# 1# #$2#$( # '& #0 ## '#1#0 1# # $' % 1'2& %

36

%##1#$111#.KJ#(2#1##G#01H###$1#%#'1# %1# 7#'( 2 1 ## ' 1 #%1# # ##$ 2# # %# ' ( ( %#0$##'2# !1# & # #1# #(2'2## # 0 $ %1 ! '#0# $ #11;'%"#G,,H(2##0111#1%###$'2#0$##1) )1 # # '% # ,+(2 %# #'##2211# 1'# '% # ## #111# # 1'1 ## ###$1#%#'$11#'2# 7$(2' #%#$10#$ 1''2###01%###$9'#%0( 1 # %# ##$ ' # %#0!#%##,*%#1'#1###'1%###$%##0#'(21##2# # # 2 0 1 %#$ '#0# 07#'(21 ## '2# % # ##$2# #%#'(2##2 2$#%#2#0 7$(21 11# 1' '2# # ##'1%###$!##### 2$ '%# 1 ##$ 1 # %# ' ' 2#( 2 # ' # # #2 ' 0%##'2#

.K1#(22#'#'%%#' #'G2###$#'%111#H('$1##0###1#

37

!,)#0#$##

<%#04<2#%%#

G.H

G,H

GH

G-H

GH

GKH

GH

G+H

G*H

G.H

:4<2#%%#

..

.K

.,

-

,.

-

*,

.K*

.

.K

G+,H

G.+H

G+H

G*H

G,H

G,H

GH

G.,H

G.H

G.KH

0#'#

**

.

*K

K

.

*

*

*+

-*

G,HZZZG,HZZZG,+-HZZZ

G.KHZ

G,HZZGHZZZ

G,,-HZZG,KKHZZZGKHZZZ

G.KH

$'#

..

,

.-

,,

.K

.,

-

,-

,

.*

GKKH

G..,H

G*H

G.H

G.H

G,H

G.*,HZ

G...H

G..KH

G..,H

%#2#

,.

,*

,K

,,*

*

-+

-,+

,**

.,+

+

G-KH

GKKH

GH

GKH

G.+H

G.H

G.-KH

GKKH

G,-H

GKH

'##$

-

-

-

-+

-

.

-

*

-

-.

G,.HZZG.*+HZZ

G.*HZ

G*HZZZG-*HZZZGK.HZZZG,*HZZZ

G,*HZZG,K+HZZZG,-HZZZ

60%##

.,

..

.,

.-

..

.+

+

..

+

.

G..,H

G*H

G.H

G.H

G*.H

G.H

G-H

G.H

G,H

G..*H

9###$

.

-K

,

.

.*

.,

,

-

,

G+H

G.--H

GK+H

GKH

G+H

GH

G,,HZZZG,*HZZZ

G.*HZ

G.-H

#$'#0#0

.,

*

..

,

.

.-

,

.K

.K

.+

GKH

G.H

GKH

G.+HZ

G.+H

G.KH

G.+HZ

G.-H

G.,.H

G.-H

<'$G#$IH

G+H

<'$GIH

-,

G*,H

#$G52&#H

-

G-H

12

,

.

G,-HZZ

G.*HZ

;%#

,

G,H

38

9?#$

.,

G-H

45#

,

G..-H

1#

K-

GKK,HZZZ

GKHZZZ

40'#4<

.*

G-KH

;##

.,

.

.*

**

.

,,

..+

+

**

G.-H

G.-H

G**H

G*KH

G-H

G.KH

G,H

G.-H

G,H

G*H

0#

.K

.-

.

,*+

,*+

.*

,*

.

,+*

;#

*

*

*,

++

++

+

+

*,

*-

+

7 ###'111#

*.+

*

+K.

*K,

+

-

KK

-+.

0

.

,

-

,

.-

.

.*

##1

##

K

K

.

-

K

K

+K

+,

0

,

-

,

K.

*

,

-

*

-

-.

##10 #1$

##

*,,

*.

K.+

K

,.-

-K

,

++

0

K

,*

K

K,

-

K

-

9##

*-*

*-

+**-

+,-

,.

.

.K-

.--

-,

.KK

0

"##'#'#)$#'466G(.**+H(;#5 ###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##

]LZZZ1##.]

39

4 # %#( 2 0 ' # '#'#$ 1 %###$60(20'2##11#'1%###$011#'%#'2#2## 11# 9 0 %#$ 7# $ ##1'1%###$#$# # ! ' G.H %#$'#0#0( G,H '0%##(GH##$#%#'(G-H##$#%#'!' #1$$' ##%% 1'2& 1 ) G.*+.H( 2 ## # 1# #2' # # %# '( 2 # ## #2'% # 10'# # %# '9 #1$ # 02( 20( # ##$ 1# $ # #'$#$1##(##%##1 1# $( ( # ' 1 # # 11#5# 92#'1%###$'%2# '( 2 1 ## #2 ' 0 '%# '2#7#$(21 ## # ##$1 #%# '#0'%#'2#02(###$#%#' G# ##$ #%#'H'###%###0'2#$1####$## 0# 1 # #$ 1 %%#$ # )0 G.**+HF&F1 G.**H20( (2 1 ## 0 2 2 #1 1' ### ## 1# ##$ 1 %%#$ # G 1 2H #( # ##$ 1 #%# ' ' 1# % %# ## ##$1%%#$ # 1# ##$(2 # ##$1#%#'' ##$ )( 2 1 ' 0 ## ' ##$ 2# #%#'1'2#!1##2##%#1#'1<$#G,-H(2##%###$ 2#0'# # %#$ 1 #( 2 #2% 0#'#((2'2##20(#1%%#1#'1$#G,HG6?##(,H#'('%#'%## 1'2# '%##%# # 1 # '%'## 1 %%%# 0'#%2%$''%##%#

40

!$(21###'010#$!# ( ' 2# 1# ##$ 2# # %# '(2#&12##%#$'#0#021## # ' 0%2# '$( # #%# ##'$G%#'%##H#$#'2#(####$1&11#G00H!11#2##1((6()#$#)#G,-H(2 #'# 0 # % 1 ##( ) ) 1('&001# !(1(0'####$## # # 11#1'0# #?#$!'$%##$##'#(#&$###'1$#%#7#'(11#1''#'$#%# ## # &$##$%0'G0H%#10#(%1%###'(#% #$%$ # 1 # %# #'# 1 %% 02( # # 11# 1 # #$% 1''#%

( ' % ( # # # 1'2&110 $'2#0#%#0#'%$#'$2###2####1#%(2 #11#%#2##'$2G0 #0H ##( # $ 0'$'(%$2#&#'2## $%###$##0%%'#G,H(210###%1%'2#(('(59G,KH(21#12#%(0$ %' # 2# # %' %# ( 2 2 #%% # 0#( '# 0( # 11# 1 %# '%1%'2#

41

!,+ #'##2%11'#'%

<%#04<

2#%%#

))1

)##

6 #^"#1

:#'

'##$

-

.

-,

-

G,.-HZZ

G,,HZZ

G.+*HZ

G,,KHZZ

60%##

.K

.+

.,

*

G.HZ

G.H

G..H

G+H

9###$

.

,,

--

,.

GH

G+*H

G.HZ

G+,H

#$'#0#0

*

.

,

G.H

GH

G-*H

G..H

0#

,

,+-

,*

,-

;#

K

+

+

,

"##'#'#)$#'466G(.**+H!'%1##'

',#,70#$&(##'##1###0#%1###

%%;#5 ###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##]LZZZ1##.]

42

!,* '#10#$ G.H G,H GH G-H

<%#0 I ## 9# '

:4<2#%%# ++ .+ K. -

G.HZ G+H G,,HZZZ G.,H

#$'#0#0 KK*

G+HZZZ

60%## K+

G*+HZZZ

9###$ .K

G,+HZZZ

'##$ .*,

G,-*HZZ

;## . .-. . ..

GH G*HZZZ G-HZZZ G-*KHZZZ

0# ,. ,. ,. ,.

;# ., ., ., .,

7 ###'111# .-, ,K- ,-

0 . ,

##1## -- *K

0 KK - -+ -

##10#1$## ,-K ,,. .K. ,,.

0 ,, . K+

9## +*. -, .+ -+

0 "##'#'#)$#'466G(.**+H(;#5 ###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##]LZZZ1##.]

43

%%,:#1%###$#(1# .

# $%#$'#0#'##'%#'10'#11%#

&G,H

;# !'1#'$##2%''O]1##%#%$2'#

&G,H

;02 ''$0(.1##.####%$1##2#0'#1###%%#%2##1#0##2

4##G,,H

;%D## !'1####1##%0'##O#11#0#1##Y%2##0$

&G,H

630'#

$%$0%########211#%#'(##10#'#0#2

&G,H

<'## $%1%#1##.%%1#%'$%%1%$0#%%##0'#%##$('##1##$# 1#

&G,H

## '#1#1#2##$2####(##$0

;4G,H

#0

!'1#'$##11#0#1##0<2

&G,H

7#5# !%#$###2%#%&#'1'##2111#%#

&#G,.H

40'###$

'#1#0'##$#$##%'##$##$11

;4G,H

421 $'#0#$(#('$%#1#51'##0#21#%#'

&G,H

#1# '#1%#0##$##%##'%#0

;4G,H

63###

!'1####Y#####(##'#%#12#####1#$##%#01#010'#

&G,H

6'01#

<''$0(.1#'#,####%$##1##$1'#.####(#12#.%$G#2#0'#1###%%#%2##1#0#H#2

4##G,,H

44

%%,;#

.

601#

<''$0(.1###,####%$10$$#%1##2#0'#1###%%#%(2##1#0##2

4##G,,H

"'1#

!'1#1#21##0$

&G,H

5# 6''%5##2##0%#$#1%%%#1##

&#G,.H

J1%#$11

"'1$###%#$1#1#011

&#G,.H

"'1$#'#%G'#H$3#1%#%%#2##&1#'#%%#

&G,H

' <''$0(.1#0__#%#$I##(2'##2'#######$(#2

6G,,H

# '#1#1#2##$2####0

;4G,H

0# $1##%0'##($##'%##($11'2'%1'##0'#

&G,H

# $0#'##1'#.#500#1%$1

&G,H

"'10#%$2%1'11

!%#10#%$##%1'#0'#0###

&#G,.H

)#& $#&1.('#02&##00'#'%$##'##0'#%##$

&G,H

45

%%,<%#0###5 6 ) 7

'2# K. , . *

!"#$%&'())*

#$'#0#0 -K . * K,

60%## -K K .. +-

##$1#%#' -K + ., K

##$2##%#' -K - *, , ,K

!#$+&'())*

#$'#0#0 K . ** * ,

60%## K .. .K -

##$1#%#' K +, .- *

##$2##%#' K *- .K .

,-

4<%%# K +.*K- *,,K*K ..- +--+,

0#'#4<# K* .K+ *- , KK

%#2# +. *

)$'# K, ,K*+ .K** - ,

.,-

<'$G#$IH + ,+ K . .

<'$GIH -K .

#$G52&#H +, + -* .

45# K-, .++ +K K. ,.

12 -+ K. .+ K

;%# -+ ,* .-. K

9?#$ -* K ++

1# + +. .-.- ,-+ ,KK,,

40'#4< K ,., *+. , .

46

47

!"

##4" I####'1'#%#'%0 #$D '2#%1'.+20( 0 #$2##51 #'##$##$G<1#(,H7#'( #$2#$#0$#'%#1'%%%#1###(2$12### 2# # 0 % 1 0 G< ( ,H.* & G,H %# ## # -+ # 0%' ##& # ' 0%'#!& #0$##2#%##9'#%1#2#(#1%2#12$## 0 %1 )#(# #1 ### #$ ;?#$( '% 2# #'# # '%# 1 ##$ 0##$ 2# #(%$0%#

17 !%# G,H( G,+H.+70$##%#2'2#%#'((52& # G,H9# G,-H %0 0021 # #%#2# 5# ' 2#( 2 # ## ' 1' '2#0$$<(:# ')#'G,KH.*I#0#1%'(##%%'1#3#1$ # ###2 0# #1? #2##0#2%#?&G###(,H

48

%'##$#'#'(%#(###%$###'%$2#%## % ## # 1 $ ' # G,H 2' 2# %# ' ' 1' %2##,!$1##2##1#%$%#'(2'1'$####

# %# 2 ' # #% #2 '1'( %# ' ( 2# #( '& #12 ## 7#( 2 #$ # %# # #'# # 1' # G,H # ## # # 0 $11##%##$(21##'#G,H2#$$#%###$I'1#0 #$ # ## # %# ' ''$!1( 2 %# # # 2 # # # # #( # 2 # '#$ 1 ' # G,H )( 2 '%0 % # 1# $ ' # G,H ##1$2###1#$'##'7'%( , % #1 # 0 2# #$1 # # # # # ##1 # #!(2###$111##&##2'2# # !1( 2 # 1 11# # %% $ ;' G.*+H # 1 G%H %# 7#( 2 # $ 1 G# # 1H '(# ' # 1 # ' % # #7$(2#$$##$I##(#0####1###0'#

'1##'2##%$'1'91##2##&$#%%#%#'=#'$#$= %( 2 G '0 #2H ' '$ # ##$I###&##2##2

! %# % 12 )# , 1# ##1$'2##)#$5##%#2%#'('1'2##(2 # - ' # # 1 # )#

, # %% ## # # %# 0# # #1$ #'#12# & G,(H4055 ! G,H'2##1%#'1''##

49

" 7 # % .* .**,(' # G,H #1$ # +% 1 # 2#( # 121# 7 #$G2# ' # . ' ## ' # , 00#H( ##'1 4< % %# G#&1' # 9!K.1#()'' #(,,H #'10$#$%GXH!#(

2#4<%%##'!#'#%'#(/ ( #&%$1#02##0#%#/ # @# ? 2# #A ! ?1$ 2##( ##?2##'###]%'7#'( # '# # # , %# %# # #%0#$7$(##%11'0$(#014<'###1###$1#####0$?1$####12##(#$2###7 ###1 %2 G %H 2# #& # # 0# $' # G,H 2 1 # %#$ ## # 12$## ######10$1##1#

'#G,H%00#&#0# ## # # 1 )#(2 ## ## '%0%!.%##2##1### 1 #2# # #1$' # G,H( #2# # # 1# $ 1 # # # # $ 2#0##1'#9!K.

nitgay nttit ,,0,*)ln( , =++= ++ ε

50

!.42###'#G,H 0#1

2

0(13-

0*13

0&14,

0513-67

0813-6 7

0%139)7

.* .K . -,

# .*K K. K

# .** K *+ K.

# .*K. . -+ +

' .** + - -

#2 .*K* . . .. $ $

5 .*K , +- +

; .*K, . - K $ $

; .* + -K $

; .*+K .

; .*+ .. .K K

; .** .K +

;' .*K + ,* -

;' .*, ,+ K

;% .*K* * .,, - $

;% .*+ * . +,

<'& .* - $ <'% .*K* - . <'% .**, -, + K $

.* -, ,* +- $

$%# .*K . *+ - $ $

7 .*+ ,. .

7 .*K . K K $

7 .**, + - ,+ $

4 .*K ,. ,, + 4 .*K* . ,+ +. $ $4 .*++ - .K , $

a# .** .* ..K .,

.*+, , *

.*K .K *-

.*+ , -

.*+ -+

.*+ , K $ $

.* K , $

51

!.;# (1)

2

0(13-

0*13

0&14,

0513-67

0813-6 7

0%139)7

.*K K ., ,

% .*+ - +- *

.* . . *. $ $

%F .*K, - +* K*

%F .*+- , + $

:# .*. - K $ $

62 .* *. ,.+ *

62 .**, . .,+ -+

6$ .* , . $

6$ .*++ K, K- $

6 .*, ,+ K + $ $

6# .*. -- K

6# .*+ , ,K

6 .*+ - . $

"28 .* - . + $ $

" .*K K K -+ $ $

" .* K -, -

" .*K .+ , $

"2$ .**. , ,

&# .*K, . - -+

&# .** . -K

' .** * -

' .* ., K $ $%"24 .*+ -. - $ $

$ .*- * - K,

.** K .K ,

.**, .*

# .*+ , - -

' .** K ,. .,- $ $

2 .* ,. .. -

)% .*K* ., ., +, $ $

)% .** - +, +

)% .*+- . +

):& .** .. -.

)$ .*K* ..- .*, + $ $ $

52

!.;# 0#1

2

0(13-

0*13

0&14,

0513-67

0813-6 7

0%139)7

)$ .*- , .. -+ $

)$ .*+* . K --

!2 .*K. - -K .

! .* .* K $ $ $

! .*+K , +. !^! .* .- + -

! .*K+ * - KK $ $

> .* + K - $ $

> .*+* . , K >#F' .*+, ,- +

>#)## .*K. - - *

>$ .*- .+ -

>$ .*+* . * + $ $

8'2 .*K- K .. ,

"#'G.H####1##L'G,H2##12##$%##L'GH##2### ###1##L ' G-H %# # 0 2# # # %L ' GH#2##2#1###1###2######1#%G$X$LXHL'GKH#2##2#1###1 # # # 0 2# # 1 # %L ' GH 22###02######1#%!'####G,,H9!K.'#G,H!2##.+2##% #1$'#G,H0#02## #1#$1##7#'(,1# #1%02# # #$1#######1##7$(1.%(2##$1####02# # # # # # 1 #1 #'##%1#1##$#1#$(2%1#####1##,. ,. 02( # 2$ # 1# # #1$ # ## 1 # 2##?#$#1#%'#1&2#1##1#( #%#'%# 11#$ #0##$#& # ?( # #1 # # 7 ### 1 #1##1#

53

! #1$ # ## 1 2# # ?#$( 2%% '% # ## 1# #1 % #& 11 1 # ! # ' # # Q ##1$ # %# $ G ( ,,H !?1$ # %## ## 1 '2# # $ (2##1#$1####$1,,

tt gg >+1

1$11##(2&2##11###1'#G,H

tiyy

ppagg

ppag

it

ttnt

nt

≤>>−

>

+

−+

+

max

0.2

5.3

7

,77,

7,

1##12$'#$/##?1$($###1#2##1#0$11#(2#& # $ 2 #01 4< '' # # ##%#1#2##!'%###2###1#$1##0##%0$1# #1 +- #(2 %# ! ,,9& 2 #0 1 2# %# # # # #$'#G,H#########2#1$#0$#0###G#0?#H

0##1####4<(##$#%#'#1#&,,#&(2'######2 $2####2 $2##1###1#2##!##0####2######1######### # % # # ' ## 1# 0$ ' - % #1 #$ # ' $( % 11 . $(2$ % ##1,9&2#%111'#'%'#2#!.#####21##1#2%$$##2####02#####; G.*K*H &# G.*KH # 1 ;( # # 2# ###1#'%%( (.*K!##1&# 11#.*K #1#%##1##%0#

54

!,42###1#

0#1

2

0(1

3-

0*13

0&1:

051:;<=

.* ,. -, ,.

# .*K * K ,

# .** . K. *,

# .*K. . + ,

' .*+ ,- - , .

#2 .* ..- +. .

5 .*KK . , -. .

;' .*, K *

; .*K. . + ,+ .

; .*- . ++ .

; .*+ . -, ,

; .*++ . + -+

; .*K , - ,

; .*+. K

; .*+* , + .

;' .*K .K - ,-

;% .*K* * - -

;% .* + + -* .

<'& .*+ ,, , .<'% .*K+ , K KK .<'% .**. - + .

.*KK . -K -

.*. .K K.

$%# .* .. K .

7 .*+ , ,,

7 .*K+ ,+ ,- .

7 .** - -- -+ .

4 .*K . + +- 4 .*. . .- ,

.*+, . * ,-

.*K + K,

.*+ - ,.

.* . + ,- .

.*+K . -* .

.** -* +, , *

.*+ ,- - ,* .

55

!,;#

0#1

2

0(1

3-

0*13

0&1:

051:;<=

.*K ,+ , --

% .*+ + * ,

.*. . K *. ,

%F .*K .* -* ,

%F .*K ,K - -+

%F .*+. + ,

:# .*K* . * ,, ,

62 .* . * ,

6$ .*. ,. .

6$ .*+K , , ,

6 .** , K *

6# .*K* . - K, ,

6# .*+ . --

6 .* * + + ."28 .*+ ,. -. , .

" .** .. , -. .

" .* ., -

" .*K+ - -K + .

"2$ .**. .- K ,,

&# .*K .+ - K ,

&# .*K ,*

&# .* .K -- , ,

' .** . - *

' .*K .* - .

$ .* ,K * .

.** + , --

# .*+- .K K - .

' .*+ K .- .+ .

2 .* -

)% .*K .K K ,

)% .** -- +

)% .*+- . +

):& .** .* -. ,,

)$ .* , .

)$ .*+* ,* --

!2 .*K K+ - .

!2 .*KK K. +K ,

! .*+ * - K .

56

!,;#

0#1

2

0(1

3-

0*13

0&1:

051:;<=

! .*+ - KK , !^! .*. ,. -+ , -

! .*K* , K- + .

! .** .K ,. *

> .*+* + K -- >#F' .*+, .. , >#)## .*K. * * .

>$ .*- . - ,K

8'2 .*K , KK K- .

8'2 .*K+ K

"#'G.H####1##L'G,H2##12##+$ % # #L ' GH %# # 0 2# # # %L'G-H%##11#2'G,HGHL'GH2#11#21# ##1'# G,H"# ## #1# ##2 #1$ ##( 2#' # G,H # #1$ # # ! # #'111#1###%#$1#1'##$21##1##"*####.**!#$'#G,H!'2###1'##G,,H9!K.2#

!##11#2##1#1'#G,H#1#$,+%G]H #1 # #$ # ' #( . % G]H 11 $(2 . % G.+]H #12#' # $ 117#'(1##%&%*%(2 #1$# 1# 1 ' # G,H # % # 11 #### #2### #1#$1## # #2# # # $1 # #,-7$(2#1$.%#1$'#G,H

! ## # 11# #( 7 . 2 # 4<1;(#26

,- ! % G## $ %#H 4 G.*++H( # G.**H(62G.**,H(6G.*,H(%"24G.*+H(G.**,H()$G.*-H(>G.*H>$G.*+*H

57

7.;'%11#2##1#1'#G,H

#2

;

8

8,2

8,4

8,6

8,8

9

9,2

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

year

ln(r

gdp

)

HPR

Our filter

6,8

7,3

7,8

8,3

8,8

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

ln(r

gdpc

)

HPR

Our filter

58

7.;#

6

"#)24<%%#G##%;H # 1'# # G,,H 9! K.! $' # # $ 2 # 2## #1#'# G,H(2# @ 1#A # # $ 2 2 #1$ #2##

!1#2$#2######%% # ## #1;( # #'1#1#1'#G,H##(2##$#1#2 ! 1 6 ## ## # # #1 $'#G,H1##$K$20( # #1 #( # 02# # ## K $1 ##'%#1##02###1##2$1## # ? ## ## # G##H+$( '& ## # ? 2# # ##1,

,'##$(##%?2#####1$1# 2 7 '%( # % ## #2# # #0 # #%0$(12$,$1##%1%2#1$9&%(###2#1$##%%#

6,6

6,65

6,7

6,75

6,8

6,85

6,9

6,95

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

ln(r

gdpc

)

HPR

No acceleration

59

""!9 '20 # # ##1 2# #!%#02'%$#$#&01###'1###12##5#2,K###1.K#0#%.* .**12#%##2##

%$1 ' 1'2 $ # %0$959G,H(##%#'1##1#G(%1'&# # ' 'H #''0'#G(%1& '&#%''1 1 $H( # # #11 #11 # #72 ' # G,H( # 0 ''$ ###& # 0 1 . # 1# 10 $ 1 ## #2@%A

' 0 #&1' # #$ I # #16 G,,H ' 1 # %###$#$20(#%###$1''1%1$(21$#(212$##1#''1##$:& #'1'''$(2''$?#1 # 1# 10 $ 1# %# ' 5 #272'# G,H(211###2%#0 ' G( ' '$H #0 ' G( '#$H #(2 # #$ #1 %#$0 #%$ #01'$ 7$(2 # #1 ' 1 # '1 $ ## # # ' %(12##1;(F1(F&G.**KH,!# ## # # G# & 1H '# # ## 11#'2####'##%#'%,+

9 # %%%# % # ' # ##%%$' G.*+H! $%# ## #$1

,K912'#G,H###'#1#%#0!#(1###$#$'#/##02#%0#(#'##$##'12##12#%%1'#G,H#%#$1'###1#7#'(2'##0#1'#$2####1##G$/(=/5H,!#11##2'''$##0 ,+7##002(!095G,.H

60

11# ? 5 > # #'# 1 # 1 11# #G;7 :H ' G ;'( .*+H ### G%H #'(#$%#3###'##1'%1#(;7 :%1,*7#'(2'# % 1 #' 11# # # 7 , 2 # 1# 1##2##0$$1##'%%!1####'12###$0#'!1(2#'(2###1#'#%1#7,42##0#'(.* .**

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,12

0,14

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

year

grow

th a

ccel

erat

ions

/ ob

serv

atio

ns

"# # 1 2 # #0 ' 1 2# # % $ G' 1#$O##'10#$H)9!K.!'1##1#%#'##

,*#&(2#'#'%#$'2#111########0$'###111###!#0?# 9 # 1 #' 11# ' 2# #'##$(1#(22#20(7 ##'#$%####'11#?#3#1'#%1#

61

#####0$11 ###(2##%###'##1'#G,H> ## # %0$' # G,H(22 #1$ % #+1 # %% G% ,,H( 2 #$ %# ##%#2 #%#$12##%#'20(20##'#G,H2#$$#%###$I'1#0#$### # %# ' ''$. ?( ###1'#G,H#%#'''$#&01.20# #G'H##$,!#2##1#1%#'#090##'2### !%###'##12#1#+1'#G,H##'0(#22##2###1$'#G,H#%#0-#0##$1'# 1 ' # G,H 9 # ## %# ## '0$1#'%##%#$1#1 2# #( 0 # ##( ( '$##2##7#('# G,H1 11#1' ##$1-- # ###1-.K 12 # # # ' #1' # G,H(21#(%#'.1!(11#1..# ###1+:&2(2'#G,H1

.'#G,H'##'20##$I#%0 '0GH1#0#!##$'##%,K#$@I)#-$2# ' ##$ ## ## # 1 %# # #$#'#1)###$;G_ KK_(_ _(_ ++_HA! ## # 0 # - 1 $ # #$ #'#1)###$!?#### 12 2 #$% @I )# - ( # 1#( 5B A,'% $%#.*K####'##$% %###$?('#G,H$###0#'9##$I####'''$!'10# #111'# #+1'# G,H ###1'#G,H%0#1'#12##$I#%0#34 !1##'%#2###1'#G,H2#$'#+1'#G,H

62

###11#1%#0#0'G>( %#0$H $ $ 1#( # 0 0 1#$ # # # %#$ 1 2# # # # 7#'( # 5#0 G? @-H ' 1# # # . %# 0( 2' # G,H 1 ## # 0 2$ 1# !#1##0'##1'#G,H "#( 2 $5 # ? 1 # %%'%0'#!-###'##!#%# ' G.H GH # 1 '%( 2 ' G+H G.-H#%####3#1#'#'&$##'2#%&%1#(22##'&## # # 0 $ # 1 # & 1 @'0$A# #2# # # #2$1 #2##'# .]21#%# 2##K # ''#$ 0 ## # # 1 # #2'%0$' (#'1'02$## ## # %#$'# G,H(21 ## #11# 1 ' 1' # %#$ 1 2# # $1#%1#'G,H GHG*H G.-H('##02$1#!'%(#&$###2##2

20( # # 1 %# ' 'G.HG+H(#11#1#%#'0#1#$11#1'520(22##1# '( # ' 0 '#'' 1# 7# ' GH #0 1#(# # # # ' G.H ;' G-H G..H # ## %#0 ' '##( ( '0 #2 '$ #&1 2##

12 #'# #'2# #' ''(21 ## # %# ' ''$ G%%$ 1H ' 1#( ## '5# #1#$%#1#K > # 1 ] # #$ # ' # G.- %# 2##H1#1 .](21$%

63

!;#1!+1'#G,H

<%#0#'

12##

G.H

G,H

GH

G-H

GH

GKH

GH

G+H

G*H

G.H

G..H

!!b#*

*

-

-

,

,

+

G,.HZZG,,.HZZG,.+HZZG,.HZZ

G,,HZZ

G,.HZZ

G,..HZZ

G,.HZZG,.HZZ

:

*

-

-

-

.-

.-

.-

-

.

,

G.+HZ

G.*HZ

G.+-HZ

G.+HZ

G*H

G+H

G*H

G+H

G.+KHZ

G.H

G.*H

W

,-

..

G.KKHZ

G+H

W%

.

.

,

,

G-H

G,H

GH

G.H

G.H

G,H

GH

G..H

G,H

W

,+

,

,+

,

,.

,.

,

,

*

G.,,H

G..H

G.,H

G.,.H

G..+H

G..KH

G.,H

G..*H

G-,H

:<#

K,

.

.

K,

G.,H

G.*-HZ

GH

G.H

G.H

G,H

G.*,HZ

!

K

-

-+

-+

-+

K

G.*+HZZGKHZZZ

GHZZZ

GHZZZ

GHZZZ

G.*HZ

9

,

.

,

G.KH

G*H

G.,+H

;09

.*

.

G+,H

GK-H

7

..-

..

..K

G.K-H

G,+HZZZ

G,+HZZZ

G,*HZZZ

7<0

--

--

--

G,,+HZZ

G,,+HZZ

G,-HZZ

0#

,*-

,*-

,*-

,*-

.+*.

.+*.

.+*.

.+*.

,*-

,*

,*

?

.

.

.

.

,

,

,

,

,

-

-

!'''X(%c;d,

KK

K

,

K*+K

.

K-+

.*

K.

K+K.

-+

!'''

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

J

J

"##'#'###5###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##]LZZZ1##.]

64

!-#'##

"##'#'#;#7 11#:#G;'(.*+H#015 ###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##]L

ZZZ1##.]

<%#0#'

12##

%# %

%# %

G.H

G,H

GH

G-H

GH

GKH

GH

G+H

G*H

G.H

G..H

G.,H

G.H

G.-H

!

KK

K

.

--

,

K

.

-+

-

,*

,+

,

GHZZZ

GK+HZZZ

G,HZZZ

G-KHZZZ

G-HZZZ

G.HZZZ

G,+HZZZ

G,-HZZZ

G.,HZZZ

G-+HZZZ

G*HZZZ

G,-HZZ

G,HZZ

G.-H

'1'

+.,

,

,.

.

K.

K-

K

.K-

*+,

*KK

*-.

*K

*,,

*,

G,+HZZZ

G,KKHZZZ

G,,HZZ

G,-HZZ

G,,HZZ

G,,-HZZ

G,,,HZZ

G-+HZZZ

G,,HZZZ

G.HZZZ

GHZZZ

GHZZZ

G,*HZZZ

G,+*HZZZ

'

.+-

K+

++

.*

-

G,H

G,+HZZ

GHZZZ

G.H

G..H

G,HZZ

'#

,

+

--

K

K

K

-,

-*

K

+

+.

*,

G,HZZ

G.*HZZZ

GKHZZZ

G-HZZZ

G--*HZZZ

G-KHZZZ

G*HZZZ

GKHZZZ

G-.HZZZ

G,-HZZZ

G..HZZZ

G-HZZZ

<'$

,,

K

-

.

G,-KHZZ

G+-H

G.,H

GKHZZZ

G.H

G,.HZZ

#0'

..+

.-

*K

..*

GHZZZ

G*HZZZ

G,K,HZZZ

GKHZZZ

"#0'

,

,

-K

.-

GKH

G+-H

G**H

GKH

#X ,

,*,

.

GH

G-.H

#X .

-,

-++

GKH

GH

#X.

,,.

,

GHZZZ

G,*HZZZ

#X,

-.+

-+*

GKH

G*H

#X

.,

..

G,++HZZZ

G,-HZZ

0#

.,

.,+

.,

.,

.,*

.,*

.,.,

.*

.K.

.*

.*

.+

.+

.-

;#

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

-K

?

+

*

*

.

..

.,

.,

*

..

..

.,

.

.-

.

'##(%c;,

,

*

.

,

.--

.

.

65

!'#11#1'$1#(2 'GH

GH G.,H G.-H '$ 0 %#$ 0 #11# 2$#0( (2##'&$#$(2'GHG.,H#11#1#$11#1'512%#0#0'G'GKHG.HH( #'$0' 1#(# #%#0 ''1#2##011#'GHG.-H2 # # ' 10 #( # #$ I0#1#X(#%####$0%1#$1#X,###10%###$0%1#$1#X.(##'%###$2##1#'#$%(21=. ##'%###$01=,#'%# ##$ 2#%01( # #####11#101#%#0'#0 1# G%#1#X ,(2 %$ 1# ## # $ 12 0# 1 # 0H 1 %# % (#'$0'1#2G'.-H)#0###G'0#2H''$#&##'2##2

"$-!& # #1 #2 00#1'!#%#!(22#1#1 '% G' G.H G+HH 1 # '% 2 % ####3#1#'G'G*H G.KHH

7#( 2 % # ' 0 $ #2 ##0# # 2& 1 52& # G,H IG,H 9 1 ' 1 # # # ## '2#1''$##$00#1'%(#' 0 # 1#( # 1 2 11###2%#0#0' 12#%# %(1#'0'G'$H1#! # # ## # #% #2 # %#$ ## 2###1%#'##!1%####1'#G,H

66

7$( 2 0 # 0 # # ' !0$'#G,H'GHG.H2 ''$115#(2 ' G+H G.KH2%# #' 1 # >1##$( # 1 # #0 # '%5 # ## # #'1#0#15#'11###1#' 1' 0( 2 ' 1# # 1 '%!#0$#1###'1#%1'# '%( 2 ' 1' 3# 1 2## J#( # '% 2## %( ' 1''1#215##'

920##%###1#%#0'###1%####2###1#%#G12&G,HL#'GKHG.-HH(#1G0H2G'GHG.HH(2##'##' '1'(##1#'( G'0#2H''$1#$11##&12##

1#(#1###%1'#'%121# ' 1' 3# 1 # ## 1 # #( <'&( !(!2>

67

!)#0#$$G'%%#%H

<%#0#'12##

I 52& 0#0

G.H G,H GH G-H GH GKH GH G+H

! -K -K -+ -+ ,- , ,+

G-+HZZZ G-HZZZ G-HZZZ G-K+HZZZ G.+HZ G.*HZ G,,*HZZ G.H

'1' K K+- , ,- K, K K, .+

G,HZZ G,*HZZ G.*HZ G.KHZ G.KH G.*HZZ G.*HZ G,H

'# - - . . + ++

GHZZZ G,HZZZ G,KHZZZ G,K.HZZZ GKHZZZ G-*HZZZ G-+,HZZZ G+HZZZ

<'$ .. +.- K, *K , .* .* K

G+.HZZZ G,-HZZ G,.+HZZ G.,H G++H GKH GKKH G.-KH

' + ..

G.H G..H

#0' ,* , ,+- ,.-* ,, ,.

GKH GH G-K+HZZZ G-K.HZZZ G-.HZZZ G+HZZZ

"#0' - . + - ,.

G*.H G.+H G.,-H G..*H G.KH G.H

!'1# .K.

GH

;02 .-+

G,,+HZZ

12 ,

G+*H

:# -+

G,H

!Z:#

G-H

75# KK*

G.KH

0# .,. .,. .,+ .,+ .. .*K .*K -

;# - - - - -, -K -K

? . . + + . . . +

"##'#'#;#7 11#:#G;'(.*+H#015 ###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##]LZZZ1##.]

68

!"#

$ %& %% %' % %( % %) *&&+ *&&+ *&&(& *&&(& *&&& *&&%' *&&%) &&, ('--- (&--- ((--- ((--- &( &+) %%' '(--. &++ &$& &,'' &)$ &,$( %%' %&$, &&% '+--- '$--- ''-- '%,-- '&$-- &)--- &'--- %&$/ *&&' *&&' *&&(+ *&&(+ *&%&$ *&%&' *&%&( *&%&% (%,--- (%,--- )--- )'--- ),--- )+--- ,'--- %,---0 *%')) *&) *&+) *&$' *&&), *&&)' *&&$ *&%'+ +(--- %(+ ','--- &$' %,$- %,+- %,- %$$--/ &'%( &+' &)$ %$%- ! *&$% &&&$ *''(( *%$$' *%$++ *%$%' %%' &&' ('--- (&)--- (&+--- %%---1 &,() %&( *&(% *&($% *&(() &+& %+&- '(,-- &, %% %& &$( &&+ &)'2 %%') %, . *&$ %(( 3 %'%' &$% -3 *%&+( %% 4 " &'(( &(& 5 %&$ %&$ %&' %&' +, $(& $(& ()2 $ $ $ $ , (& (& '!/*6 &% &% &%% &%% &%) &%, &%) &%&1 2 4 . 3 2 7 %$+& 8 "* 7- %&9:-- 9:--- %9

69

"*< # # 1# 11 2#( '% 2# #'# # '%# 1 ##$ 0##$ 2##(%$0%#!# #$%2#'#2##1'#%0$##'' %' 1#3#1$# ## #2 0 # #1? # 2# # 0 # 2 % # ? & ! % &$ # #1$ 1'# %0 $ # 0%'# 1 00 #' 1(1 #( # 2# # #1#10$22# # # 11# #$%( #%02#1'#0

! %% # $ ' # G,H ' '%' # # 1'# %0 $ # #' ' !# 1 # %# 2# %1' '#1 %# '2# ## #!$#1$'#+%#.*(1##%# '###$1#%#12##

%#2&$'#G,H(2'&0##7#(2##%#'0$'#G,H)(2'%0%#1#$'###1$2###1#$'##'!(2 ##1#$111#####'#111##%%$;'G.*+H#1G%H%#7#(2#$1G##1H'(#'#1#'%##7$(20####1###0'#

'111##$1'#1'#G,H7#(22###%#'0#&##1#1%#'# ##$I#$(21##'#11##%#$ ## 2# #60(2 1 '0 ## ' 5# # %#$ 1 2## 9 2 # %% '%0'# 1 #'( 2 1 # 0 ## ' 2# # %$ ' 1'9 1 ##2# # &$#%%#%#'= #'$#$ = %( 2 G '0 #2H ' '$

70

# # #$ I # # # & ## 2##2

71

72

73

!$

%&'#()"8$ '$ ;D 2$ @9 7A G;( ,H # ## ## 5# '#5# 20 #0'1#0%2*9#&2#% #5 G 4( ,L&95( ,H( # ' # 0 $ %%#$ # 0-! '1 #%##'#;#'%$

!;##0###'$0%# ' #'#$ ' 0#0 # '3#$ '% # ; )# # ( #:9#1( #19#:#' #'#0$ 1#1' #'&#( ; %#$#' '&# '# '# G6<6H 6<6 #$%$ # %# 1 # '$ ## 5 '&# 10 #'%%#$#(2?###'#'#'3#$2('###(##$% 0#'#$11 &%# G4(,H;D''####'#0#&##6<6(#'&##'$

+!%#5' G,H*);G.**(.**+(,H-&95G,H%%#####@;#A#@%#D'AG& 95( ,( % H # #$ $52# ## # '$11#'2#9#'2#G#1H5#'$11##00('$;

74

;D ' %#$ 0# 0 # #'#5# 5# # 1 # # #2 "01 '$ # # #' % 2# 1'###'#%#G'(,KH7#'(# 5# 20 # % # # 2#& # 2D 1# 5# 1' # .+* # # .*,G2 6#( .***H 9 # 0 # ## #'$ 5# # # 1# #2 #GD"#(,H(##%2##1#G)'( ,,H ; G,H ## 2 6<6 %#( #'#1'$5####'#'

9 ' # ; # 1 %1 . # 0 #%.*+- ,'1#%16<6 #&1'# 6# # & %3# G6( ,H( 2 2 '% 2# $###1';G,H9'%$1 11# % #'# #1 # 0# 1 # 02## '% 1'2& #2 2$ # 2$## 11# # ' 2# 5# '$ 11##06<6#

02 #(21 %## # %%#1 ; 11# #1 '%( # '$( 5#( '#1##06<6#(1$#; 3# #( # # # ## #$ #0 6<6 # 20( 1 2 1 ) )1 #( 2 1 # 0 1 ; 11# !1001%1##& !'1#%#512#-,(2 #;## # ####01# #-(2%###'%1'2&#--(2%#1(2 #-2%1'0 #0#$$#&9$1##'##' 1 #$ # -K # 0 1 1#

75

$-;####1#00%#2#6<6 # 1' # 1 '#5# 5#G;(,(%.KHAB ,>,,>, C' C D - > D > > B - > C E > E > -> , -,C ,F---E,A

' ##2#'$ # '% #%#1#;9#3#%#1D,' %%#( #$ #'# # # %#1 #%0# '$ # # = #$ M'$'# # 0$ 0 1 #$D G;( ,( % -H 9 D#$ ' 2# 1 # .*+ .** 0'1 ( # %%# ' 2###10#;%%#$!$2'#''2#%%#$####)#'!'0(2%##$2%%$#'#%#1#'''## ;0&###$D'3###.**+G;(,(%-H!%###;#2D?1#5#2#12$###0'#5#%0$##'&# '#'#$

2$ # 02 # ; # #'%$ 0 1##D G.*K+H $ 2& ## #'# $ # 1#'2#%2%###$# G1# %0H ###2 %;e3# ' %1 ## # %# ## '$ %21 #'#2$#1%#1#'####10 # '%## ## ## #; ## '%$ ##6<6''# #5#L #$ #$%$ 0 $ '#11$G#;H(;#%1###$#15#'$##0

;%#$( #2 '# '$ ' # % #; # ! 1# ## 5# 1 '&# #

76

%#$1045# '# '?#$0## ##$$ G40&(,H1#2 '%$ ?#$ #2 6<6 # # 1 #%%#( # # # #'# # ' 0!#%#$(#$###?#$#26<6 # #1 # %%###0$( # ?# 0## 5# 2# # # # # ## 6<6('%2#'#5%##0 #2$(5#2#&10#%##$2####2##2(##102 1' %## 1 # & #2 5# 0

'#'%#;######1'$#2#6<61#####&10 ! #%#2 '$ 01 '##%%##'14G,H(2'#'&#1 # # %%$ 1 # '&#( %# 2# 11#'##'%#111'1###D%%# # # # #-.! %%#( #$ %%$# 1 # # '%## ## '# #2'#$!'1#'&##1#0#2'$0##'!21 #0# #0 # # #% # #0 # # # ## #0 2&(%#$1##1##2##'#$G#(1#(#11H2#1##;D'% # 6<6 # % #0 G#$%$'' 1H # # '$ $ #'3#$1# %%# G2 '%$ #H #$1# 2# #' !$$10##'#101# ##$ = %$ 1 ) ) 1-, )# ##' # 1 # 0#$ ( ( #$ :0 G.**H(;G,.H 2)'G,H7#'(#11#1G H '$ # $ )' G,.H( 2 )' G,,H ( (4# 4# G,.H(4# 4 G,H 2 G,H 0##

-. ! #$ 1 4 G,H # # 1 5# 20(# '% 0 G 4 0&( ,H # #0#%#25# ' ?#$!1( # ##5###01'%##%%$#-,#0021)'G,,H

77

2#5###1#-#'1##% ' ## #2 11# %#$ 0( #$%#$;G,H#'%$'

$"'! ' 2# G# '# 1H '$ 5#11#GH#0(2'%$%#'2##$#'%1111#--!' %111# %#0# ##%1#'$(2#$111###&#1 ## %1 # 0 #$ G( # 1# 1#5# # ### 1'2&H ;D #%##'$5#%&#0%$6<6#(2#2 2$# 2$##11####$%#'%1#

ititititiitit

itiitiitittiit

XGLDEMMDMGLDEM

DEMMDMGLMDMDEMGLy

εβββββββγµα

++++++++++=

765

4321

***

**

2 #%#0'0 #1'## #$ $ [ ## #'(G # # #$1 11#1 #$ ( H # #' %1 11#1 $ 3@ #'#15##$ $ :?1#'1'$1#$$:#''$ 1 '&# '# '#$ ! 0# # # 1#0 # %0 # # #'#1 01##'1##2#'#

;G,(%KH16<6A , C

I A J J

- # # ## ' # '%# 1 ' 0 ; 11G,,H(7:#G,H6#G,-H--!1##$#'%111#0#####' ## 3# # $%# ## # #'# 1 #1 11# ' ?###'#1'11#'7 ## 3# # $%# ###$#'%111#5

78

'%##%#1#1###$#;

G,(%.-H(##$AKLC > ->>

I> A I C>J F - , - C > - , >> B> M > M -J

; G,H 1 # 2# 6<6 - #

2## 6<6 9 # #' %% - 2& 1 #1# %0 $ ; G,H ## # # 2# ## 6<6 1# #$ # 2&##;D'%#####$$#1#1#'#(#1(0$ 1'# ) # '## % 1# # #%#?##0#$1###1';G,H( 2 # $ $ # 1#( # ##0#6##&##G6(,H

!6 %3# %# # ##1 # '# 2## ## ! 1 # %# % ## #0$11 1# 1' $#'# '#$ ##'# 0 f 0 #%#$LO#0$'51%'#1#1 1##'#$###1##$2#$%%## ##'#$%%#1##.%#1###%%#

7' # 2 # 0 II( 2 %%# #' # @' 11 #2 0 '#$ %#0 # # '3#$A- ! 0 II 1' , G0$0#%#1#'#$H#g-G0$0#%#1 #'#$H! ' %#1 '#$ 0 ''0(2%1#%%#$(1 # % ''( # %1 11%#H7%%(2##''$0G6<61?#2###'#$%2##$2#'$0#%#G II9)H(5#2># 1#( # # 2# 6<6 ..+ 2## 6<6 ;#$ 1# # # 6 # #

-)6##&3#&G,H

79

%%-#-.2'%#1##1';G,H2##6<601'#6#!-.;#16<61#;G,H2#6G,H#

;G,H

1'1 +

6G,H -- .

. ,, ,

+ - *+

);G,H(6##&%3#G,H

! #26<6 ' # 2# #2#$ 11 !$ KK#1*+ GK]H --#; G,H 6#6<6(2,,###%16<6-K##.6<6#;G,H###1$#6#;0$(#6##1$##'&# '#(##;G,(%,.H6<6)# 6 # # 0 ' # # # ; #$ #%###1#(2 # '$2!%##1#(2#;G,H# #'%#######%16<611#1' # 1#5#( $ 1 # %#$ ## #2'$ # 01' %%# #11#%G ( <0( #$( F# 95( ,H 021#5#26<6%#(#1 2 ' ' 1 #$ 1 2 '#'$G;(,H;0$( #;#1%

-K######$#2##21##]1 :# ' # :# 'D ' # # # 1#&G#M%'#$DH(###11##$'#$##'#$ #6##2$##211 #5 ## # 6 #( 2 ; G,H 1 # 0$ '%##'$'#

80

6<6(#1#5#'-60(6<6 1 $ ##$ ( 2 1#5# '11###2(!#11# #-, ## #11#2#1#5# #%#1'&# '#'#$-+! -, ;# 11# #2 6<6 1#5#' 6<6 6<6

6G,H ;G,H

#1#5# , .

1#5# ,, .-

:1#5# , -K

" .-* *

);G,H(6##&%3##G,H

' '$ # # 2$ M>(D 01'##$I%3#G6(,,H!01' . G0$ ##H # g. G0$ '#H # '$11#'$#0###G<(,H(2 $ 2# ##0 '$ # # ## ##1#!##0#4#(2#01%##0#G7'(,KH( 0M'$D''!1# #&1'52& # G,H(21'$'###2#%%# ' 1 2 #& 11 ! ''$#IG,H(21'$'''01%#'%###%#%#-* ! %$ 5#( 2 ' $ # F75#G<(,KH(2#1'(

-!1#5#1#;#1%G2#&#H # 1#5# , G+H( 1#5# , G+H( 1#5#--G*H-+ 7#'( # '%## # # ## 6<6 ' 11# 1' #@# 'A0 $ ; G,.H @ # 'A 1 ###2#%#'##%-*6%1$('%#2##.]1###0###%#%#$0#'#]1#0#

81

%#5#92####0'%##$ ! # # 1 &2( # # %01'# G ##$H1 #0!1(2 # ## ;#$ & 4 G;4( ,H '# 1# 1# # # %$ 1 # 0 !0@#1#AG1'#KH%#0#102(###1> (#1 ## # # ## 1 0 #$ !0@# #A1' #., '#1#1# 2# #$ ### # ( ##$( 0

$( @#1#A A @# #A '%#'1#0@#1#A'$2%#'#$0 #1'# #;0$( # #'$###0##%#1##201'##((#2#0##0' #1#(#####11'%1#!%$#02#1#%#1@##A@#1#A%# 0. 9 # ' '## 1 # 2,( # $##%$1 #1# # ## # ##@#1#A@##A

# ;4 #( 0 # 2 0 1 # 1# ##(%#0$$(2'#%0$ .##0'%$011#GO##H.)%1$(2'#%$@# #A G1' K #H2#@#1#AG1' .,#H#2# .##M#0DG1' ,#L%%-;H( G#0H01@#0A #'#0,7#(1##'###$#1#(#0 @# 0A ##'# # # # ? ( # #%#2# ' #"#( 20( ## ###%#0G#-H

82

7 -. #% G##%#H #2 # 1# ##(.*+- ,

) ##;#$&4 G,H<%# #0 #1#0##!%#.*+- ,

##;4#%%#( # 0## ##$'#7'%(#$2#6<6G$# #$ ##H'# 0 > ## 0 # # '# # %# ! # 1%##(2111##1#2#0#1##7#'(#%###$'#1 $ #$D %# 0 % ! ' #%#$(#$#11###2#%###$'##%##0!1(2## 1# 0 0 3#0 0 # G##2###1#5#1#(,H'%#2#'##1#%#$0

!%#$0#1002''$ G4# # ,, %#H( '' # #%1 '''1#''''1#G4##,,%#H( #'121##&#$(%#0#(%##

AGO

ALB ARE

ARG

ARM

AUS AUT

AZE

BEL

BFA BGD

BGR

BHR BLR

BOL

BRA

BWACAN

CHE

CHL

CHN

CIV

CMR

COG

COL

CRI CUB CYP

CZE DEU DNK

DOM

DZA

ECU

EGY ESP

EST

ETH

FIN

FRA GAB

GBR

GHA

GIN

GMB

GNB

GRC

GTM

GUY

HND

HRV

HTI

HUN

IDN IND

IRL

IRN

IRQ

ISR

ITA

JAM JOR

JPN

KAZ

KEN

KOR

KWT

LBN LBR

LBY

LKA

LTU LVA

MAR MDA

MDG MEX MLI

MMR

MNG

MOZ

MWI

MYS NAM

NER NGA

NIC

NLD NOR NZL

OMN

PAK

PAN

PER

PHL

PNG

POL

PRKPRT

PRY QAT

ROM RUS

SAU

SDN

SEN

SGP

SLE SLV

SOM

SVK SVN SWE

SYR

TGO

THA TTO TUN

TUR

TZA

UGA

UKR URY

USA

VEN

YEM

ZAF

ZAR

ZMB

ZWE

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

average internal conflicts

-6 -4 -2 0 average ethnic tensions

83

! ?01#'+(2%%##02### %#$ 0 # ## ' # #'#1#07$(#'%####11#0#%###2##(#111##'###& ##0####2#9'%1$####0%$##'0#1-,(22#0%'#1#%$0#'1##%%-;%0%#0###1#7-, #00#'##

"# # 1 2 # 0%'#0 #'1 # # 0 %$1 ##!##%#1###1#G#01';4(,H

%D## #$ G&,H #'1$####& #$G6!(,-H

+

K

-

,

0

.*+ .** .** , ,$

5

"# 8'2

) 6$

#

1#

84

$$ #'# # 2 # - ' . 2?#$'# 2$( #2 2$# 2$ ##11#16<6( '$ 5# #0 #6#6<60'- K212#'%(##1#1;G,H !##1#16 ##2##;# G,H 0$ ' #1# G1#H %1##11##01'$ 1#(#0 %1# , G KH $ 1#( 2# # %# 15# ' GH GH- ! '% ## # 11# 15#'$ ##11#%# # # 20( # - # $# 2 # 0# #'%#1#;#L##'#11#G##H ## $ ' 0 # 0## # # ## 0( $ # %%%#'11#G'(;&4(,KH12(21# # 1 %## '## 0 $ 11##0 ## 0 # ###! # 2#--

-9 # ' @# #A@#1#A %#0 ! #1 # ( 2 0 ?#( 2$####2%##-K-#12$####'1#$

85

!- #'##'

<%#0#0

G.H

G,H

GH

G-H

GH

GKH

6<60

6

6

6

;

;

;

4:

..-

+*

.-.

..++,

,+,K

-K

GK-HZZZ

G,.+HZZ

GKH

GHZZZ

G.-.H

G,.HZZ

< 6

,.

.-

.-K

.

,-+

+K

G,+H

G.HZZZ

G*HZZZ

G.-.H

G,HZZZ

G.*HZZZ

6<6Z4:

.,

,++

-..

-K

GKKHZZZ

GHZZZ

G,HZZZ

G,.+HZZ

< 6Z4:

K*

*K,

+

.,.

GK,HZZZ

G-*HZZZ

G+HZZZ

G..HZZZ

6<6Z< 6

.,+,

,+

.*

K*,

G*KHZZZ

G*-*HZZZ

G.HZZZ

G*.HZZZ

6<6Z< 6Z4:

..K-

.-..

G*-HZZZ

GK+KHZZZ

0#

.**.

.**.

.**.

.K

.K

.K

;#

.

.

.

+

+

+

?

+

K

7 ###$111#(%c7

7 ###'111#(%c7

'$###%c7

-

.-

+

*

## ###%####$#'%111#G#2HZ1##.]LZZ

1##]LZZZ1##.]4:#5#0< 61##'$'6<6#'&# '#

'#$''$

86

'. -20'0#'((4<%%#(4<2#(#'%$'##1#G0 #& 1' # 9 & <0%'# #( ,H;1'11###(21##2'(2'2# '%$'# 1#$ # #'# 0 #( ' '%##$( # 1 1 #0 1 ## ' 2 ' 12?#$1'#>0#$1!?#$3#G>!(,KH(# # '%# 1# "#( 2 ' 1 %#G;4( ,H #' %$12&0 #21#2#0#1##(21## #0$1#7$(2'2##011#$#1#!(212#%%1;G.**H(2 ## 1 %# ##$ ! G2#H 0 1 # ##$ 0 #$ D # (2# # 1#$ $ #1 # #0 0 # #! # 2 ' # ## # 0 #$ # # '# # 0 ' + 2 1# # 0 # # ' >'%$'# '2#21#

87

!-- #'##2###0

<%#0#0

G.H

G,H

GH

G-H

GH

GKH

GH

G+H

G*H

G.H

6<60

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

;

4:

-.+

**K

.K

...

*-

*.,

.

,**

,*K

*

G,.*HZZ

G-H

G-KH

GKH

G,KHZZ

G-H

G+KH

G+*H

G..H

GH

< 6

.*.

.-

,,-.

.K

,K

.,,

.-.

.K,

.+

,K.-

G+KHZZZ

G+,HZZZ

G+HZZZ

G+KHZZZ

G+,-HZZZ

G,HZZZ

GKHZZZ

G*HZZZ

GK*HZZZ

GKKHZZZ

6<6Z4:

-+

K++,

.*+,

K**

.K+,*

*-

K+*

.,K+

KK*

,+-

G+HZZZ

GHZZZ

G--+HZZZ

G-HZZZ

GK.HZZZ

GHZZZ

G-+HZZZ

G+HZZZ

G,.HZZZ

G.H

6<6Z< 6

,.

,+K-

.+K.

,+*

-

.

,..

,.-K

,,K*

,

G+*HZZZ

G*-HZZZ

G,KHZZ

G*-HZZZ

GK-HZZZ

G*+-HZZZ

GKHZZZ

G,K,HZZZ

GK+-HZZZ

G+HZZZ

< 6Z4:

.-*

.,,

.*,

.,,

.*+

..,

K

*K

*,

..*

G+HZZZ

G*HZZZ

G,.HZZZ

G*KHZZZ

G,HZZZ

G-+HZZZ

G++HZZZ

G.HZZZ

GK-HZZZ

G.HZZZ

6<6Z< 6Z4:

.

.,.-

KK

.,+

,.

.

+.

+,-

+

+-

G,HZZZ

GK.+HZZZ

G.-H

GK,*HZZZ

G-*HZZZ

GK.HZZZ

G+HZZZ

G.HZ

G+,HZZZ

GHZZZ

G4<%%#H

.K.-

..

.++

.K-*

G+++HZZZ

GHZZZ

GKHZZZ

GK*HZZZ

4<2#

.K

G.HZ

G+H

>'%$'#

-K-

.-

G++HZZZ

G.,,H

1#

G.,*H

9?#$

--.

G,*H

;%#

.-.

..*

.K-

.K.*

G++HZZZ

G+.HZZZ

G++HZZZ

G,+HZZZ

#0

,K*

.+,

,K*

,-+

G+HZZZ

G--*HZZZ

G+++HZZZ

GK*HZZZ

0#

.*

.*,

..

.*

.,K

.*K

.**.

..K

.*,,

..

;#

.K

.

*-

.

*

.

.

*-

.K

*

?

-

+

+

-

-.

-

-.

-

-

7 ##1#$11#(%c7

7 ##1#'11#(%c7

'$###(%c7

K.

.-

-

,

.

.

,-

+,

,*

## ###%####$#'%111#G#2H4:#5#0< 61

##'$'6<6#'&# '#'#$''$Z1##.]LZZ1##]LZZZ1##.]

88

!1( 2 #' ' *( 2 %1%1# 9 %# # % # 6<6 1# 1;G,H!#'2##1'%1#*(#22# #; G,H6<60 # GH ## # ##0##16<60 !#%##(2%##'11#G#*]1#0H1'$5#16<6# 6<6#1---(%#0$K7 - 6 11# # 0 1 '$ 6<6#

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.38 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.08 4.00 5.00 5.42

globalization

mar

gina

l eff

ect

lower bound marginal effect democracy upper bound "#!%##'###1'*#--!2%%0#*]1#0

90#%1'#% 22%%##1#0#$1#0'!#'##%1#*K!1##1'*(#--

89

7 - 6 11# # 0 1 5# 6<6#

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

democracy

mar

gina

l eff

ect

lower bound marginal effect globalization upper bound "#!%##'###1'*#--!2%%0#*]1#07 - - 2 ## 6<6 #( '$ 5# # 1#$ # # # 0 ! 11# 1#0#%#1----#'%#%#(#21 6<6#1-- 2(221 ## 11##25#'$)%1$( '$ # 0 #$ #0$ 0 1 5# ( 2 1 $ 11# 15# # 0 = $ 1 0$ ## #5# 3# 1# # 1 # #( 2 1 %%#1#;#

90

7--611##01'$ 6<6#

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.38 1 2 3 4 5 5.42

globalization

mar

gina

l eff

ect

lower bound marginal effect democracy upper bound "#!%##'###1'*#--!2%%0#*]1#0

7 -- 6 11# # 0 1 5# 6<6#

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

democracy

mar

gina

l eff

ect

lower bound marginal effect globalization upper bound "#!%##'###1'*#--!2%%0#*]1#0

91

$*-9 3# $ # ' 1 # # %1# & 7#( 2 % '$ 5#$'1##0'!#(2####%#$,2##'1IG,H(52&#G,H#7' G,KH 2 % # 5# $ ## ' G'( %# 5#H 15# 1< G,KH " 1 # 11# #)$(2##0%%#'#09#0##%#1#$'1 0 # 2 # 0 ;4 '+ !# #2 %1 # 1# #11#* !#$( # %###111'###(('1#$0#GJ0H%%1'# '% 0 ' #$ ' ' # G)0H 1 2 1 '% 1 # 1 2 2 0 ### # # #' % G+* #( "X.+H( 2 1 ######0# 9 1# ' # # 1 # ##0#'# #? 7#( 2 '%$ % # ### ##1%#'%$ ## "#(2#'##'11###'#9## # 1 )## *,( 2 ##0$ # ?G!&$ 2#1#H7#'(2 #:#!'' )? #'# $ 2 G.*+H 9 ## ##0$#'%###

9 #'# # ' 1 11# '% # %'%##$7#(21 '%22 ;< #( # # 0 '# 2$ #' G%#1'6H # 0 6<6'1

% # %0 #( # #'# # $ #%####0#!1(2%###%##2##'##7#'(2$2#'11#%#2###0#'## ##$ 11# 1' # # 1 1 - - # 0?#+ # ;4 '#( 2 # ' 0 # '# #-)1##.*9#$G$H#02''$%#0##20$'#'#

92

# # # 11# # "#( 2 1 $ ) ) 1 # # ## '# 1# # 2##%#21--K(##1) )1

7-611##01'$) )16<6#

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0.38 1.00 2.00 2.52 3.00 4.00 5.00 5.42

globalization

mar

gina

l effe

ct

lower bound marginal effect democracy upper bound

"#!%##'###1'%1#*#--=1 '%1$ ) )1 #!2 %%0 #*]1#0

93

7 - 6 11# # 0 1 5# ) )16<6#

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

democracy

mar

gina

l eff

ect

lower bound marginal effect globalization upper bound "#!%##'###1'%1#*#--=1 '%1$ ) )1 #!2 %%0 #*]1#0

7-2##'$#06<6##11#1015##(5##0 ###(##11#'%#0G#1#H101'$91#%%# 11#1 '$ 6<6 # G1 -KH( ('$#0 ##=%$1015#7$(1-K2## 6<6#(5# 1#$ # 0( '# #$ # 201'$!#1) )1%%##;##'1$#K91##25###'# 0( 0 1 '$ 2& 5#D 0#'%#! 2## G,.H21 ## '2#201'$'#%#1#

K> # ' # & # #( # #1 #) ) '%####

94

7-K611##01'$) )1 6<6#

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

0.38 1.00 2.00 2.47 3.00 4.00 5.00 5.42

globalization

mar

gina

l eff

ect

lower bound marginal effect democracy upper bound "#!%##'###1'%1#*#--=1 '%1$ ) )1 #!2 %%0 #*]1#0

7 -K 6 11# # 0 1 5# ) )1 6<6#

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

democracy

mar

gina

l eff

ect

lower bound marginal effect globalization upper bound "#!%##'###1'%1#*#--=1 '%1$ ) )1 #!2 %%0 #*]1#0

95

$,9$0'$0%#2##&10#0N ; G,H # # # # 15 '&# '$ # 2 '# '#$ '$ '# # '3#$ #%#2'%$'#;#

! %# ## # # ## #22$ 7#( #;#(0##'&# '#'#911# # #1$ # '# 1 ## # ##112#0#'1#1#5# ## ## 2 1 # ## 1 #11('$5#!#####(2'$1##'%#1#0

#1 '% $2 ## # 0122;11#(' ;G,H20(221#(2#$'#1'1##0( 2 1 # 0 ) ) 1( '$%&# 1# #11# # # ' 5 '%##$( 2 1 ## '$ #1#2'&# '#'###%%##'&#'# '# # '# % 1 # '#11#1'$%5#) )1#$#% 1 # %# #$ # $#'#$ 0## 2 # 11#1'# #1 #2 #% # 11##2 ## 0 # 2 '# 1 1#%1 # ) ) 1( 2 '( 0 11#5#( 2& 0'# # G; 11,,(,-L7:#,H90#0##11# # 1 ## # '# 1 '$ 5# #$ # 0 # '&# '#'#!###;2#1#2 @ %# '$ 1 '&#A @ ##A G # ## 1 ; G,H ##H( # '&# '#'##11#($#1##!#1##0###&5#('$0(2##0&#%#1'&# '#'#$

96

%%-;#2#2##6<6#;G,H1'1 1'1 1'1

!# > : #&7 : # ) #0 9# '5 9# #2;#h0 : ;;' 'C&C )2#5;' _1_ ;;# 9# ; 9# 4'$ #% # <'&73 4 : $%#4 :() )%4'(! : 74 : 74#' 9# >#F'$ 2 4 ; ? )(# F$ 9#((F&$ ;' ; #$: ; : ;# %: : F(%1:# 2 F2#6 9# :$6 : ):&6$'G'H ; 66$ ; "#"' 9# "2$" : "28" (: '&# 63 #' 2 Q# 9# )%% ; ) 2 )%$ 9# )2 2 !2 !# !&$

97

%%-# 1'1 1'1 1'1

) : >$): : >#)##)$ 2$# J'! :( 2 ! ; !5 (; > ( I5 9# )#1 9# 8' 8'2 9# );G,H

98

%%-;#2#2##6<6#6G,H

1'1 1'1

53 '( !# ;' '&;(%1 : # 73 #4 &5(5(4 24 )4$ # ;? F()F5&# F$ F3F$$5# : 6#;#()6 66 66$ ;"' %(#" <3' " &# 63 0(F'$&2 !#! 2(F! ;!3&# !&'# > &(>& (;'>5&# )#1 (;( %(8;(<'% :(#("(!#8'2 %

99

%%-#1'1 1'1 1'1

1# #% 6# 7 62 7 "> 4 "## >#F' "2$' 4'(! "%# 4 "28# 4 '' 4#' ' &7 ;# %% a# %"24 $ F"# #0 $5 Q## #$ '#2 ' );#1% ); % ))2#5 ;' )%; F(%1 ):; F2# )0;#h0 : )';' : )0&;' :$ )0;# ):& )2; :# )25;$% :# )$;5% :#0 ;4'$ 6 !^!<3# 60 !<'& 6 !&$<'% 6 !5 6$'G'H >$ $%# 6 >#)## # 65'? I5)% 6# J')6##&3#G,H

100

%%-;<%#0)###

5 6 ) 7

N

#0 ,+ K ,-+ ,

## ,+ ++ .- K

#1# ,+ +- ,+ .,

!0# -+ - .-. K

<$#0# -+ ..+ K ,.K

421 -+ ,. +. -

#0# -+ ,. - *

;02 -*+ ,, .

)'''1# -*+ ,. .

C

6<6G6(,H -,K ,, -. .

6<6G;(,H ,+* - .

3-E

F75#G##H . .+ + + -,

'5# -* . ... K- K.

#5# . .K .- ,

)5# . +- ++ . K,

:

%#$, -K , K . .

%#$''$ - -K .

52&$# -,- + -* .

I -. - .

7' -K* -. ,. .

,-

4<%%# -,+- . - .++

4<2# -, .K K+ -* +*+

1# -, K.KK K.K ,*. ,KK,,

9?#$ ,- K K .

>'%$'# .- +* K+ -

;%# ,+- K-, ,K, ., .

101

!*

+,* !'%##'$2$##''#%$'(0##0#1#'#1 ## ##& # (1 #(2$ '# ####$1#####&##'G ()(.**,H(#0#'#G&'((%(,-H(20G7(,H2011#1#G7$(:)##5(,-HK, ! 1#'# 1 # ## ##& # ###'%#11#!##2#####1# ###&)%#'..(,. G*O..H( # %'#1##%1# #6 #'6..(,- GO..H## #### #''%' #%#'$#0 I#'#%#?1#'7'%( 7$ : G,H # ;# G,H' # ## ###2 ## %#(2)?)G,H0#1####$7#'(0#1###%1#''$ # #%1 G;( ,-L F ,KH!# # ## ## ##& # ##Y%%#1#?#$1#'#0'## '%'#%20(#%1'$11##%#1

K.!%#4( 6G,H4( 6G,+HK,70021'%'###1#'(7$(:)##5G,H

102

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

103

!'1#%#512#,(2#####1'220'$%##(2##'%'9%##'###-2##'%#1#'0#$2'%##$# # #( 2 1 # & 1 # 1##)#K#%#

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

K)2(74G.*+-H

104

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

K- # # :% )#P'' 1 # '# %#$ $#' 2# %# ##(2###%#$#2 %#$$#'#1'%##! '%# # 1' #2 # 11# 2 ## %# 2# #%#$>%:% )#P'#0##%21#11#%2##%#$!'##$2# #%#$( %#$ &$ #0 ##O % # '' # # ' 1 # ## % 2%2 1###0#(1#%%1#%# (2##11###2#2 %#$'# %#$$#'

105

# # # #'( # ## $ #02'1#%%0!#(0##(# # # '%#$( 0 # # #' #0# 1 #0'# 20( #$ 0 # ' 1 # 0# ##'#5 # '1 # 0# 0 # ##'#1%#$#0'##%###'%#1#0'#(#'#1#'%0##'%#1#'#1###0###01# ##0'# #G#0 ##%# 0 1 # 11# 0'#H( # '#0'#'&$##1'11 '###2##'11###1#%#0$#0$!1(2 # #'%$#12?#

*"'!'2##'%2$'0'#'11##(2'%$$#'#G!);)H#1' #.#0 #%.*K+ ,, '%## # ' 1 # # # #& # 1 #'%%!1(2%###1&#G.**+H#111## G;7 :H' G;'(.*+HK&#G.**+H2##%####%#####1#$1''$0##''&#'1$#%010#G#H2&1####G#1H11'###'1''$0#(&#G.**+H%#''$02#'#1#%7 ##:&###3## $%#####%%'#5##%#01'%1#KK

K1;7 :''##G'(.*+H9## # $%####$111#?#5$'%##'#1;7 :' ## G%H#'! $%#1 #$%111#3#1'%1#(;7 :%1KK #( 2 0 #'## #' ; %%#5'2# #'0$ 0# # # 0$ ' # # #%####(2#'G#0%?#H7#?01#'#'#1&#(&#

106

'12

)( 011

)|()|1(ttiti Xititit e

XthXcP−++−+

=== κβα

2$0?#.1##1#$%0$1##1#$$'11[#$%111####1##%1##$( 0#1%#$0 #'i# ###%%'# %#0#&1'<#&##G,H!%0##'1#%$1 %'# 1 ' # %# 1 '# O #%'#1#%''#G%%H##'# $ #$$0#(2'#% # %$$'##1#$$#K7.2###1##'111####(#,-K#'%12$,%##'#$!0#1#.*$G#2H(2###0'% #0'#1#(2 ' 111,$G.*. .**+H

G.**+H7#'(F1G.*++H7#'###1##(;'G,,HK 02( # $1'# 1 #'# $%#1#'##%$G,+#1-.*0#H

107

7.<##1##

"# !1 2 # ##1 # #' 11 G' $H 1 ###'%G-.*0#H

9 ## 11# #' # # 1 1'#' $ # 6! !' F2 G6!( ,-HK+ !%0## ##' ####& 2###&O##11##$ 10#0#%.*K+ ,,#0$%###&# 11# '%# % % # 0# *O..( 2## 11# # ## # #2 11# #$% ##1#''##'1#0#%#$%$K*

K+ 0 # ##%OO222#&O ! !' F2 1 # hh0( # ##10(# ###'%11'YY! # # 01'## #12!'#01#%#2###'0$#2$##2 0 ''' %#$( '$ $ ##& 0 60( ## # '#$ # ##' # ''#%$' #'##11#'#K*! ## # # #$1'$0 # ##$F' # 41 # # 0 # 2 #$ #$ #

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 nu

mbe

r of c

abin

et fa

ilure

s

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

10

8

!.;#'#1##'#

GH

GH

GH

GIH

GIH

GIH

GIH

GH

####&

.

GH)##&

,-

.

GH

#

,

.

GIH

##&2###.3$

+-

-

,*

.

GIH

)'11##

K

*

,

+.

.

GIH7##%0#

,

.,

,

+K

.

GIH

!''$

+

.,

,

K

.

-

."#!#'##1'#6!!'F20###%OO222#&!'1

0#-++0##'

109

!##0 # #'1#0#2####$%3(#'1##&(#'1%# #( # ' 1 #( # 0 ' 1# % ## ##&( ''$ 0 # #% 1 #' ! . 2 # # #2 ######'#%#0$#20( # # # # ! & # # 1'% 1 2 # ##0 #' # #'%$ 7 , 2 # 0# 0 #' 1 # 11# ##1##'%#2%2#1#0##.*.*+(12$#$#.**(( 1',.27#'( # 2## #'1# ##&2 #0$ #0 #'(# %$1#,.7,!%##1#'0#'G.*K+ ,-H

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Terrorist attacks Suicide attacks Assassinations Sum of fatalities

"#!12#0%'#1#'#0#%.*K+ ,-!1#$ 1##'10#(##&#(2##$ 1##'11##

110

!' 2 2 %' 20( ' #0 '$' ## ##& # #'3#$1 # #'%!#(###2##'#####&#1-+ %# 1 ## ##& # 2( 2 # 1# #2#$##1K*+%#7#'(#G,-%#H##'%######&##1#' &2 #2 ' # 1 # # 0#G(&'#(,-L!0(,-H##%#'%##$2#%###11#1#'(23####'$'%##$ # #%#2 #'# # !1( 2 %# #'# # 1 11##$%'%$ 9 #0 # 1 # 0 ' !#1#041'05G.**H1 #0( # '%## ## ## '%1# # #$ 1 11# ! '% ## 2 #0##00#0#'#$1$$##$111#.

%$ 1 11 2# # 2 #%5# 0 1 # <# 1 # ### G& # (,.H ! 0 # # 2# ## 0'# %# 0 #' @%# A9 %# ## #' %5 # ( # # %#$ 1 # 12 7' # ' ( 2%$1%#((%#1#5#'1#5# # %#$ 1 %#2# #( 2%#%#011##%#$1#17#'(20##'#'1$####%#$%#1##)#0%0'1'###

! #% #2#$ # G' 1 0# %#H G+.+H( :GK+H(7GH(4'$G-.H(>#)##G--KH(4G-H(;'G*H(?GH(!&$G.H(G,KH()%GKH(#$G,*H(#G,+,H(;G,.*H(&#G,H(%%G.+H(4##G.+H( $%#G..*H( )0G..+H1#G..H!##'10#*K,-.#'$####0#%1#'(####$1%#$1#'#'#%#$###!%#01#'G?0F1H%%'#(1#($G10$H'001%#####&20(10$'00$2##001#' GX+H ( #1('#1$$ #111######'G4FH#15#1## 0# # '%$ 2&0'# %1' !'## #( 2 ' ## # 0 14F6?0F1/O( 2 ## # ## 0 1 # ## O # # 0# 1?0F1( 2 ####1%#$#111#

111

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

,900'##0'1'$#'$52&#G,HIG,H########1###0'#0?#!#(20('22##'%0

11

2

!,#'##

<%#0#

G.H

G,H

GH

G-H

GH

GKH

GH

!###&GH

.

.+-

,,

,.*

,-

.*K

...

G,K+HZZZ

GHZZZ

G+HZZZ

G-.HZZZ

G--HZZZ

G,,HZZZ

G.+HZ

630'#

*

K,*

G*+HZZZ

GKKHZZZ

;$

+

G,H

&

,+

G,--HZZ

<'$

+

-

G-+HZZZ

G.*HZZZ

'#

.

*

GKHZZZ

G,-HZZ

4<2#GH

.

.

G,*HZZZ

G,.+HZZ

1#GH

G.KKHZ

G.*KHZ

4<%%#GHGH

.+K

G.--H

;02

+*

K

GHZZZ

G,HZZZ

GH

-.K

K

G,.HZZZ

G,*HZZZ

421GH

,K*

G,.KHZZ

11

3

#GH

,*

.,

G,K,HZZZ

GKHZZZ

)#&GH

+

G-H

<'##GH

,+

G-*HZZZ

7#5#

.,

GHZZZ

5#

+

G.H

J1#%#$11

.

G,H

0#

-,-K

-+-

-+*

--

+

.

-**

;#

.

.

.

.

.*.

.,

.,

?

-

.

.

.

,

,

"##'#'#;#111##G;'(.*+H!2##

%('##%%'#G#2H#%G

&#(.**+H#015###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##]LZZZ

1##.]

114

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

-0'##%###$%'

115

"#( 2 # ' %1 #$% 1 #( ( #' 1 ##& # ' 1 %# # !' 2# 0 ## ##& 0 '%# ##(2%#$0#'1#0#2###%&3(#'11####'%# $( # 0 ' 1 1## % 0# ''$# # % 1 # ! 12 %## # # #0'11###%1#1#(2###'#1##2(###%1 #' (# # 0#$1 #' ## 11# ##1#9#'##

1#%''##(#$1#######1###"#2&1)#;1#(0# ##%OO222$#'%OO#'( # , 2 # %''# 2 # 20( 2 2 # 1' # $ #11#

116

! #'####0#'#

<%#0# G.H G,H GH G-H GH GKH GH

630'# K K- K.+ K,+ K K- K

G-HZZZ GHZZZ G-*HZZZ GKHZZZ GKKHZZZ G.HZZZ G,HZZZ

<'$ - - -K - - - -+

G.KHZZZ G.HZZZ G-HZZZ G.+HZZZ G.HZZZ G.*HZZZ G,,HZZZ

'# * . * * . . .

G,-HZZ G,-HZZZ G,-+HZZ G,-KHZZ G,HZZ G,+HZZZ G,KHZZ

4<2#GH . .- . . .- .- .-

G,.-HZZ G,,HZZ G,+HZZ G,.+HZZ G,,,HZZ G,,,HZZ G,,.HZZ

1#GH

G,.HZZ G.*HZ G.**HZZ G.*HZ G.*HZ G.*HZ G.*-HZ

;02 +- K- K* K, K K,* K-

G.HZZZ G-+HZZZ GHZZZ G,HZZZ G,HZZZ G*HZZZ G-HZZZ

GH + K K K K+ K K*

G,+*HZZZ G,*-HZZZ G,HZZZ G,*-HZZZ G,*HZZZ G,*-HZZZ G,*HZZZ

#GH .- ,+ ,+- .K ,. , ,

G*HZZZ GHZZZ G,,HZZZ GK,HZZZ GK+HZZZ GHZZZ GHZZZ

!###&GHGH .KK

G,KKHZZZ

)##&GH .+

G,-HZZ

#GH ++

G-HZZZ !###&2###.3$GH ,-

G,HZZ

)'11##GH ..

G,.HZZ

7##%0#GH ++

G..H

!''$ K

GKH

0# -** -** -** -** -** -** -**

;# ., ., ., ., ., ., .,

? -"##'#'#;#111##G;'(.*+H!2##%(' # # % %'# G# 2H # % G& # (.**+H#015###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##]LZZZ1##.]

117

!0###0'#1#11#1#'(2##' 11# 1 # %#$ 0 %1# 1#,#!#%$#-K

0# # # '( 2 1 ## # # ##& # &1 # $ %# ! 11# #2 2 $ ## ##& ## 00 $'7#'(21###'11#22$ ##&# # ## ## #' '%####'0'2#20(##0#0'#020'%##1##'

**3!1#$52##0#$1#''##1##(2##1''$0?#1#'1####&G0#$$H#?#P#2(2PQR#(M #)S9### # 1 ''$ '% # 10 %# 1 0#912#'%1#'1##(#'1#0$?###%1#72#'02##''#PQ871-2#'11# G 1 #0H1 # 11# ''$0 7 %# # # 1 # 0# '' 2 1 - %$1##$ '' ! % 1' %0 1 !# ( #$2###'%#1#'##1#2#1#'2#''09 ## 1 # ' 1 ##& # ' 11# '1#1 P6((21 # '1 # # ' #1P6#"#%$(#2#1#1#01P0####'11#

K###'11#(0#'0#1 11# # # 5 ! # 2 # 11# 2 # ' 11# 1 ##'1##'##1'##11#1#1#$0

118

!-611#1#'#0##%#$0I 611# 0 6

F "

!###& .

!###&GH . .

)##& . . .

# ..

!###&2###3$ , , ,

)'11## . - ,K

7##%##& . , .

!''$ * ..

.0-1I>,-"

630'# .K .+

<'$ . *

'# , ,,K-

4<2#GH .K

1#GH K-+

;02 .-

+ -

# - .+"##'#'#;#7 11#:#!'%1##%1#1' #,!'11# ###%#$0?##'111###5!%#0'%#'6

119

!2##1'%##$(2%#'%

11# % ) !0 G,-H 1 ## # 2# '%# # 0 # ## ##& #'1 '%1'( 2 11## #2 '# # '# #+ 9 1 0 1 $#'# 11#2##'#0'###'%#1####&##20(22##2 ;<# ;< #(&&' # G,-H(21###'11###%#$####1#7611#1##11#1####&

-0.04

0

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

"##12##'##1##''$0%1# 1 # , # %# %# #' 11#1 ''$0?#G#2H1#'1####&#?#!'11####%#$0?##'111###5!2#%##'##%##*]1#0

%#1'#1##$(22##11#2###101#'#2#201#'9##2#%(

7 #&10#$( # #1#'%##$#'#%%(#0?#+ ! #5# # 52& # G,H '$ # ###02#1''#$%'%%

120

# &$ ## #%1 ' 11#$ #'2 # ##1#1 #%#%! ## (21#%##1'#'%##0####&#'% % 9 2 '& G# ,('H(21####'0#$#"#(20#'# #%1'?5!1#%#1####.####&##1'.*K+ ,,;##%##.####&#'#-*##&!#%1#####& ' # '% % 2# %##( 2 1 ###' 11# # # %$ #2# 01#'G#%'11#1###10%#0H7-611#1##11#11##

-0.04

0

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

1 2 3 4 5 6

"##12##'##1##''$0%1# 1 # , # %# %# #' 11#1 ''$0?#G#2H1#'11###?#!'11####%#$0?##'111## #5!2#%##'##%##*]1#0

7$(2#2$1'##1#$1# 1# # ) # # 0$ $ '#1##1?##'#0(2'%$#;7 :'#

121

' 2# # %'# ' &$ # % 1#'##1#'* !#'## %# #912#''##$#'$0!#('. K## #'# 2 # 11# # 1 # 0 (2'K2##2# # %1%%%####'%#1#'22$1###]10+!#'#'11#((.,!1%%#1 #02## #''$%$11##&1#1##+.

*!# (2# #'%%'##(20##1# % 1 #' 11# 9 ## ! $%# 1 #' 11# 3#1%1#!1(' #'''!1;7 :'G.*+H##+ ; # 0( 2 2 1 ## $ # 0 1 '$( #'1%#%102#$#### 0 # & 1 # ! # 1 # %#''30'#$'$11##%#$11##+.7##$#114#G,+H

12

2 !!'%#1#'#%'#1##

<%#0#1#

#

G.H

G,H

GH

G-H

GH

GKH

GH

!###&GH

-K

KK

--

-,

--

K++

-*

G,-HZZ

G,,HZZ

G,K+HZZZ

G,HZZZ

G.KHZZZ

G..HZZZ

G,HZZZ

630'#

*

G.+HZ

;$

G+H

&

-

G*KH

<'$

*.

.,

G,*.HZZZ

G--.HZZZ

'#

.*

G.,HZ

1#GH

.

G,H

4<2#GH

,*

G.H

4<%%#GHGH

K,

G.*H

GH

.-+

.K

G,+HZZ

G,+*HZZZ

;02

*.*

.

G.K+HZ

G.*KHZZ

421GH

*

G.-.H

12

3

#GH

,K

G.-H

<'##GH

,*

G.,*H

)#&GH

,*

GH

7#5#

**

G*.H

5#

G.*H

J1#%#$11

.

GH

0#

K,-

+.-

+,-

*

..

-*

+-,

;#

.-

..

.,

.,

.-

+

..

?

.-

.

.,

.-

..

.

.

"##'#'#;#111##G;'(.*+H%1##'''

#015###%#(Z1##.]LZZ1##]LZZZ1##.]

124

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

125

!,

"2$(#%#1%###$%$'%##'1%#'$#2$0##%###$##$2# %# #1# ### ' %(#$ 11# # #0 1 ( ( 1' %#G;'(,H!#1#''#(G'1H#?#1%###$%#( #?#####

• 2%###$'N

• <%###$'%'2#N

• < '$ 5# # % 1 '&# '#'#$##0N

• <#'11####$10'#N # %#( 2 %# 002 1 # '% #

%###;%#,#2##''#1%###$ ! ## ( 2 0 G ## # %0 #H %#$7#$G 7H#'#'#$1%###$! #1 # 7 # ## 2'11##1%###$'#1#1#2#$ 10%1%# ##$ 0 ## ###(2 01 ## 1 11# ' 1 %# ##$ #!'%#$'#0#0('0%##(%###$#%#'(%###$#%#'

! ' 1 # %# 2 # ' 2# %###$##'2#90'#'%#1#1 %# ##$ ' ' 2# #2#1'2&###2&1'G.**H7 #'#( 2 0 # $' % # $#'456#16'##'#1G.**+H!%%

126

#& # # # %' #$ 1 %# ##$ $%#01#%###$'#'#

'##$###$1#%#'##0'%#'2#=##'%$24#'1%###$### 1?# 1 # %# ( 1?####(1?##(1?#0'#( 1?# # %#$ #$%( # '$ ## #''###%#'#0'2#$##'1%###$'2#(2%# ##$ ## # ##$ 2# %# # 1####'%)0G.**+H

91'0 ##' ##$2# #%#' 1 ' 2# ! 1 2# #1$# G,H6?## G,H## %# '%## '$ 0 0 # %%# # '#'%##%# '%##%# #1# '%'## 1 %%%# 0'# % # '## 7$( 2 1 ' 0 1 0 #$ !# ('2#1# ##$2# # %# '(2 #& 12# # %#$ '#0# 0 2 1 ## #'0%2#'$(##%###'$G%#'%##H#$ # '2#(# ## #$1&11#G00H!11#2##1((6#G,-H(2#'#0# % 1 ##( ) )1( ' & 01##

1 # 2&1 # #2# %%###'#1##''1###%##?#'#0#$(#%'## # ' #' 2#( # 0 #' %%>1##$( #'% %'1# 3#1 $ # ## # 2 0 # #1? # 2# # 0 #2 % # ?&! % &$ # #1$ 1'# %0$ #0%'#100 #' 1(1 #( # 2## # 1 # % 2 2# # #%#1#%(#%02#1'#0

! 2# # #' ' '% ' 1 '2#( 2 0 '%$ ##0 %% %# !

127

%% # ' 2& 1 ' # G,H( 2#1$%1%#2#'20'$0## @2##A

%#(20%$1#?#12#%#''1' #2##! %1 % '2# ## #1 ###$#1'2&1$'#G,H(##0'%0'#7#(20## ##1 #%# ' 01' # G,H # ## ## # #1 # ##$ 1###$'#G,H!#(%#20 1 ## 1 # ' # & 2( ( 2 1 0##%#'#'2## '%0'# # # # 1# ## # #1$'2###%####1#$%#1#%#1$#1#1'#G,H######$!'%0#1#(20#'%########1%#$1###(###!##%#%$'%##(# ?# '% $ %'$1 0##%'2###'11#(#0+2# # #21 #.*(2 '% ##( 0( 0$ $ # ## # # 2## '2 # 2 '&$( # % 0 #$ #& % # 0% 2 1#( '# ,] G.KH 1 ##&%) )1=#1#2(2'#$##2#'2#

7 # '% $(2 0 ##1 # %%%# %'##(####2&1'#G,H(#$1 11# %#!1(20'%$# 1 11# # %% $ ;'G.*+H>&'#G,H(201##'2## 0 $ ' 1' # $ %# '!1%%##02$###6#$7( 2 ''5 $ # 9# ; G9'(.**-H'1'G#$%#1'H '%## 1 # # 0% '$ 7#'( # # 0 ## # # 1 %# ' '%###'# 1 ' 2# # !# ( ' 2## %#$ #& % $ %# $#' 7$( 201## ###''$#%#$##

128

' 2# # ! 1 % ## 2# #1 %# , ## %# '%## %#0$ 11# '2#

# %#1 # #(2 01 # 111# ' 1 %# ##$ 7#( %# -( 2 0'%$####$1;G,H##'$5# # % 1 '&# '# '#$ # # 09'#1#### 1#1 #$#'#( # #$ 1 ; %0 %# 2$ 2##0'$&##%1''##'7#'(###'#####1#'#11#(# #$1;# # ##1'$(5#( '#

! ' 2# # 3# 1 '$( 5#('&# '#'# ##0(20##'%##''&# '#'#$##1';G,H#6##&## G6(,H!%( #( 1 11# % # ' 2# #2 2$ # 2$##11#### #01#;#$!# ( #'%## #1221#(#'11#%#2###'$5# 1# #2#'&# '#'#$20( 2 2 ## $ # # # 1 ) ) 1#(#01;11#!#() )1#( # 3# 1 '$ 5# #0 # %1 '&# '#'#$(2 # #02'&# '#'#$#!## # ##0 # 1# # %# 0 #%# 0( ##0 #'# '#( ##0 '%1#(###(#

! # %# #' G <' ,H F$ ##2#1F$2(# # ### '##( #0$ %#$ # #$( ## 00##F$'1##1) )120( # %#1 #'&# '#'#$#F& 2 %%# # 2 1 # #( #$ '#0#0&# 1# # #'#1F&( # $'###

%#(201#?#12##'# # # ##$ 1 0'# !# $ 0 %#'#0 # # # # 1 % %

129

%#%#1#'!#1# 2#0####$10'#(202#%# '% $( 2 01 0?# 7#( 1'#(#'11###N)(2##'%#1#'#0###'#1##N!(#0 1 '% ##$ # # #2 #' ##N(1$(#'1##'N

! ' #'( 2 0 # # 1' # 6!#'&2G6!(,-H%###1#'(#0#$1#'(##$%1####&!% #2 %# '% $ # 2 # ?#

##1#?#(20#'#1&#G.**+H##1'2&##&#1#%2 # % ' 1 # # ! ' 1 #% %#$ '%## # %#$ ## # ##21'$%#%###$#901 ' 0 ## #' # # # 1 # =%$1' 0 ##&!$ ### 1(20 '% # #0'#1 # 11#1 #'2###'#1## # 1## # '%#1#' ##'%#1(('2#1#(#'##'%#1((0'#027#'(201###'#1####&%##$%1####&2#0#$1###&9101'%##$ !# ( %$ # 2# 01 #'(# # # 7$( 2 1 ## #' # $##(#%$# #%#$1'#0'#

130

131

-(;G.**H(@!$D##$'2#A(T?3(,,* -( 7 I G,KH @< %# ##$ # 1#N%#$A(T C(+.* .+*( (<02( ( #$( 9( F#( ) 95G,H7#5#(T?3(+. .*-((5()((")2G.**KH@###$'2#A(T?3(..+* ,..#(;;# G,H@##$##$1#'A(: <?(.K, ,+,( )5& G.***H @# ' ##2## #$ % # 41 2 % A(T =(-+ ( G,H @42# ### 02 1 # 0A( FU C=.-,(.** .( ) "( G,,H _<#' # "' 1 7# %%'#7#6_(?(.*. ,,.2( 6# G.***H @!22015# %1'#( 1'# 11A( " 9& %( K*-"#1 '(&(G,HVF:4,#+#5'())*'%#("J( G.*H @! # 1 %# ' 'A(<-(.-.* -,

132

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

133

2( (7(<4G.*+-H@0#%%##%'1###$A(>,< (..K .*()G.**+H_##''###$'%#'_(T?(+.. .-##( G.**H @# 0 #$ 2# $A(T?,(...K .*6?#(#G,H(@3,<>A("20J>0#$;'%(" "# G,,H @9 11 %# ##$NA(T:,>?(K. .,;%(4 <F G.***H @ %1 $#' 1 A( <# # 1 # , 0 ###%OO222.2&O1O#'O#b1#'O;'( 7 G,,H @"2 0 # %# ' 1'#%#$##A(T<?(-*,-* ,*;'(7G,H(###$(##$'(T?,(.. -;##( G.*KKH _! ## 1 # ' 1 1#_(,,=(.,- ,K;'(4G.*+H@$102#?##0#A(=,? (-,, ,+;( G,-H @! ,- )% # #' #$# 1NAU?><(,*- *K; J 7 G.**KH( @)' %# #'# 1 '2#_?>T<?(.,K* K,;2#5(;G,H@$#1N#%######A(%%%%1#,6#1#'#)#(;(:

134

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

135

<5( G,H < ? ( # >0#$(#("2$<( G,KH@<5#11#2#N 01'215#A(4>> ?(+.*. ...<( ( 5( I F G,KH @ # & #2$#NABT! ?(.. ,<1( )( ( !'% G,H _42# '#(_ (<1)GH(; -C?3(%#+ K( 0<1( ) <Q G.**+H_!2 '%1 '2#_(V?=UC<>(K-,,"#1 '( #$( 9 :0 G.**H @1D 2# #$ % #0hWT?(..,., 2( ")' G,H @9$ # '$02 1N ># %0# 0# 1#NA( T 4?(*,-- K* 2( " )' G,,H @2 ' 2 2 2 N %#%0102A(T=(-K - 2( ( G,H @45#( ' &( ' 1#A % %# # # , ; 1( 6(4'$()%#'.+ ,. (9()(!4G.**,H'#$1#'%#1#'#'(XC(-. -7( < :# G,H @ ##$( 0 2A(4<=,(* *7( 7( G.*KKH( @0 0 2#%#A(T=(.,-* ,.

136

7(JG.**H@<'$(%###$('2#A(T<(,*. -.+7(JG,H:3, ?3F ?, (! 6! ( 6## ### 1 !$( ;'(6##73( G.*+KH @'# %1' # #A(<-( ,7(<G,H@;###1##1'%#(0%###$A(<-(..K,* .,7' G,KH 7' # 9 # & <#<2##%OO2221'7$( ) : G,H @2 #1# #' ##0 ##A(: <?(.-, ,-*7$((:())##5G,-H@I%#1#1#%%A(?U C<>(..+; )14'7$((:())##5G,H@;##$##1#'A(T?,(,.. ,-4(6( (6G,H@!'##'%$A(X.!UC>>( .+.(F7)2 '###( !84(6( (6G,+H!'###$#&$D#EA?@(1#'4#(;(:(Q8&( G,H@%#'1%$ '$1%###$A(=,:,>?(+ *+4055(74!G,H@ '%#5#A(T?(,.,* .4( G,H @! %# '$ 1 #A(W T ?(.,-=+K

137

4#( "( 9#( ( & 6( ) 6 )#G,,H @'1#.*-K=,. 2# #A(T<=*K.=K

4( "0& G,H@<##11#15#0%#A(T?@(-* +,4(; G.*+H !"20 '#99"#("2J&41'( I 5 G.**H @6 # #$#'#A(T<(,-.* -.4%#(<G.**HF?<N("2J&( < G,,H @<# # $ '#0##A(T?(-*K +.'( G.*+H @)%1# ## '#A(?( -K.,. .,.'((###(:<& G,H @42##A(T?3(. ,*'((5(79G,KH@42#%A(B:UC <>( .K ;# 1 ## <0%'# # 0>0#$( ( ( !( 4#( ) " 4# G,.H @!2 '# 0 %N <'$( %# 0 2( .+.K .**,A(4<=,(*.K ((4#"4G,H@45##1#A%%,. ,)(4((F"4#(GH(3-E 4 (;2'^:##1$( < G.**H ? D 4 7 ? ? (&2(1(>F

138

#( ( )''( ( #( ( ,, 9 ! I K.(;# 1 ## ;'% # # >0#$ 1 $0G;;>H#( ( )''( ( #( ( ,, 9 ! I K,(;#1 ##;'%1#( ' ##>0#$1$0##(66"G,H@#'$1$11#49#2#'A(<"< <(K -,$2(G.*.H@1#?1'A< =4(.--+K=.(<G.*H<N"4V4("2J&9$'( G,.H F : - <>, :E(6#>0#$(6#(>F##()G.*K+H<. "20(;!J>0#$'( " G.**H( _42# '% % # %%(_ F WT?(...., ;4G,H##;#$&4!)4%"2J& 6 ' G,KH @! %## 1 '$ # ,##$ #$ 1 # #$ A( 1#' ;( )2#5(GH(<-: 2 (;#'(>F5'2&(6G,KH@ '%1(%#('#%6&0 2# %% #2#A(T :,> ?( +. +(&G,H@!#'$1## #%2#AV?=UC<>(..,+"#1 '((&G,H@<'##N"#%2#99A(WT?(.,+ K-

139

( G,KH @ #''#1 %# ##$ #'%# ' 2#A( . = =>( K; >0#$ 14( ### )6 G)$#'( # 6'#H ( G,+H @ #''#1 %# ##$ #'%#'2#A((>0#$14 ( G,H @# ' ( '1' 2# #A(? U C <> .* ; )14' ( < G,+H( @42# # '#A(?TU(. +F&( ) F1 G.**H @### ' %1' #$ ## ##0 ### 'A( ? <(, ,,F1("G.*++H@ '##51#A(T?@(,KK-K K*:(<#G,H@$M#>&%# 11 # ># F'A(B W( -*, ,,:0( < # G.**,H @ #0#$ $ 1 #$2#A(4?=,+,*-, *K:%#()G.*KH<(:(9'':'#:(FG.**H@0#$(#%#%(#51#0%2A(U <(*,. ,-:%( F )#P' G.**H @;# #'# # ###'1#0#A(4<=,(+*K-+ KK6&2("('(<<9G.**,H(@####'%1'2#A(WT?(.- -

140

6( 4 ) G.**H, " !("2$:2 '#(6(64 F G,,H #$ I<# )#j;'%#1L0%-0,,k;&(6<;#1 ##<0%'# ;1# 6'#( >0#$ 1 6$##%OO222''OO%#$O6( ()#$#() )#G,-H@ '&01# #'#0 %%A(T <?( ..,, .6##&3#G,H;&(6<;#1##<0%'# ;1# 6'# #0 1'##%OO222''O'O.%,6! G,-H 6' ### 1 # 0# 1 !'##%OO222#&6(<)#0G.*.H(@# ##$ %#&1A(T=(.- K+6( G.*H @# %%#$ 1' !' # A(4<=,(K-.+ -"#(<G.**H@5#A(!)0&&5 ') 6'$ 1 1 " .** 2 ###%OO%5Ob%5O'O#O.**O# ##'(6G.*KH@%2##51AT?;(,,*=,#&(G,H@1'#####1#'11##%%'# 1# 'A( ''(##%OO222'Ol,,O#&7#!#%1D"( # G,HF<":B > B.E("2J&"#

141

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

142

)(< G.*+.H< <B-(!6':!<(:(>#F')?(F!)G,H@!#&( #''##(%$#A(T<-?(*..+ .+.)2( G.*KH( @ ## # # #$1 '2#A(FWT?(K *-)#'( G,H@<#'#1 #'2#2# %%$ # #'# #' $A(?>?(* K.)0( G.**+H @0#'#( %%#$ # %# ##$#$0A(?>?=,(-,.. .-!31(!G.**H@##0#$1#%1#9#)9G H(F<B>=6#$(;& ;!#( G.*KKH @<' 1 1# 0 2# #2#.*+ KA(T=(.-. K-!0( G,H @!% #$ # ' &( #####&A(T?(..* .!0( 95 G,.H @2 '$ 11# 2#A(?>?=,(-.-. .+>!G,KH>0#$1!?#$3#<#)#2###%OO#%0#OI(!G,H@2##1''$(.+. .**+A(T<=(,. ,KI( J < 4%# G.*+KH @' ## %###$ #'# 1 0 # 'A( T <?(*-+=++

143

95( F9 G,H m!5# 2# 20A(V?=UC<>( ..,"#1 '(9&( !( 63 G,H ,- ('#'"#92&(G.**-H3,,,<:;'>0#$("2J&("J9'( G.**-H @ 1 ' 1 #%A( 9' GH( F < ? ? =( 9#( <;###1## '9&G,KH9&<0%'##;< '(9#(<;9#(:G,-H@!#'%1'002A(F?T(..-7- 7,.

144

145

.)<#%11#0#05&0%#& ####&### &3# 0 # %#& ' <# &'#0'3&5&%#& ###05&#'##&&##&2##0#&'#%#&####&'#'<55&1##0%#0%#('a0#&#030('#&'#G;'(,H <5&#%11#0#'#0%#&###(5&0%#& ### 00%#&###0 '#2&&<'00'# '# 2 0 5&0#2

• #%#&####2'#N

• 1#%#&###0%'N

• I5& '# 25 0'&#'#'#2N

• 1##'0%GH###0N 5301#0%#&###'%<'#'0## 1# 0 ) G.*+.H I ' %#&###'#22 1#2#0 02#'123&0#@'%#A<52#2#&00''#&#0'#%#& ### % 0 ' 2# '# ##G.**KH(30('# %#& ### 0 # ###%##%#&<#&3&G.**KH##2053 # # # ''## 1 25 0 &%$0%#&### # # '3& # 1?# &#235(5"%,, ,(515&0 ##%( 5 '# % ! ,K0 23& #05'%##'&'#2F0&50,

146

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

147

6?## G,H$ G,H(#%#&'%##%#111#1#%'#&'#('#'%##%#&200 !##3&## $ # '&01#%#20%#& ###'!##''##'%#&'%## %&0253 ##! #2#' '##'%#&2 C0%&0##'#&#2#' #'# 0 ' # $( '2%#3'0#2#'2%#'#&#2'52#3#'(#3 ' 0 #'3 ' # % #2 0 % 0 ''0313 <&52& % #% ## ## 5233&# 5# % # 1'# 21# %% 2# # ' 0 # ( 30('5#0&5%5 # 0 &5 %( # ' 0 %#1'#1 ' ?# #3' 0 ' # #'(&52"0##0<5 % # 2& 0 ' G,H( 2 % 00 ' 2 a#1 I0 2#$ 2& 0 5 # 05&# #%11#2#'# '5#1%#& '0 ' 0' @#A 05& <5#53%0'''#32#%11#%#2&0' G,H(0# # # 1#0#!# 2# 1# %#& ' 0 0 ' G,H>#5%#3&###051#####a0#6#'0'G,H#%#& '0%#030&##%##(3&#3#01##(3&##5$&###0# 0# %# 0 0 3# a#1 '# '%$ ##1# #0&2&5&##(3##1#0###<0 ## # #0# 1#0' G,H 2# ## 0 # 2 ?#a#1%0#0#1#2+#

148

a#1 %0 # 3 #2# %# 0 1#%#0 % # ## # 23& 2# '#'('3&) )1& < ' 0 % :# ' '# 0# 11# 2#00 5# 1 %#& ' 0 '0'&a0%##3&##3#' 0' & 0# # #%## # %#& ' 0 6# 2' 03 3& %#& 03 # # '' #2&& <# ## ## & % 0' G,H <# ## # 0#'' '# # # %% 2# # ## 6# 7 =#&@9#;AG9'(.**-H"#' 0' 0 % & # #50#<5&'#&# %& 0 G#1H 3 %#& $#'( 12 '01#%#0#'## #2 0 # %11# 2# # 5& 0%#&####!#2#$5#13&#3 '# ## #'0#2I;G,H3&02#''#5#'&#'#'<##'(#0'5#1# C00;G,H1# ;0& n<5#%0'##%#0##0&0 n( ' 5# 2 %# 0 %0# 'I;G,H#2##&#;0&.**+#00'#0n 4 G,H 1# ## & 0 # #'#(#253'%#%&& ' # # 5 # 3& # ' 53 &'0 2 0 # ## 5#5%#0&#53'2##( 12 2# 53 2 # #&'# 3&%& ;e $ # # 5 ## %&# $%##6 #'3&' 2& # ( '# # 5& 5# @0& 0 0#A # %11# 2#( ' 0 % # ' '# 0# 11# #2 2## 11#($%#0;G,H######'

149

# '& # '# 5 '&#'#' 2# &# '&# 0 1&3& G6(,H( 2# 0& '# 1# 0 ; G,H ># $3&##230$%#0;20 225#< $#% ) )1&'#'&#'#'(23# ###05%1&%2##'#(#2 !## 2# * 0 # %11# # 0# #' &#5#!# %#&'#0###%#&%#a0 530#nG#H## #' &# 53 2# ##'# ##%#####0###(#%#05##50#05353&0#n # #'&#0&##'0:%)#P'G.**H####&&G5##H 0 % %& % ' '3& '#05###a0##0 (&#0CC G1 #H0 #%#0#53'####%%'#&###0 ##0#0G.*H###0#23&0 %0 0 %& I # ' # ### 0#23& # 2 %& 2 % ' # ## %&<##'3&##0 0 1# ' ## #0&' <' # 233& # # ## 0#23&#0&2#% <'0%:#''#0#11#2## 1#& # 11# 0 #' %&# $ 3&%# '0&# 1&3&<# 2 5 # & # &# % %#2#( 1# 0 % # # '# '51&3&#'&2'#0&G.**+H 5#2##''#01'# & # @6! !' F2 AG6!( ,-H < &# '##0 #&& % # ###(###0##

150

># $ 3&# # # ## # #' &# < &# ' ' &# # '& 1# '# #' % 0 03&$'##'#0&#3&###11#0#' #1 < 0 0 #' % &# ##000'0(51#1'0'##11#0#'#'# 2 53( 53% # %2(1253%#0##300&5