throughlife integrated concurrent_engineering_skoltech_2016_lisi_v01

"A through-life, integrated and concurrent approach to the engineering of

space service infrastructures" Dr. ing. Marco Lisi

([email protected])

Skoltech, Skolkovo, Russian Federation April, 2016

55 years ago, the first man in space

Jurij Gagarin First Man in Space

12 April 1961 2

Objectives • To recognize the importance of services in today’s

world economy (including the aerospace sector); • To explain what a service-oriented, large and complex

system means; • To introduce a systemic approach to the engineering of

service systems and enterprises; • To suggest that beyond the obvious technological and

technical challenges, a service provision perspective requires a conceptual paradigm shift much more difficult to accept than that required by systems engineering: moving from technologies/products to capabilities and services;

• To propose an innovative Through-Life, Integrated, Concurrent Engineering (TICE) approach, merging Project Management, Systems Engineering, Operations and Logistics. 3

Introduction

• Services are becoming more and more important in today’s world economy;

• Service-oriented, large and complex systems are often critical infrastructures of our society;

• The engineering of service systems and enterprises requires systemic approach, holistic view, customer focus and life cycle perspective;

• New acquisition and contracting schemes are also required;

• A service provision perspective requires a conceptual paradigm shift: moving from technologies/products to capabilities and services.

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Space 1.0: Astronomy

Space 2.0: the Apollo program

Space 3.0: International Space Station

Space 4.0: Moon Village

Moon Village as a Far West village

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Service-Oriented, Space-Based Infrastructures

• To achieve the goal of an effective service-oriented, space-based infrastructure a radical (mostly conceptual) paradigm shift is needed: from a technology/mission focused approach

to a service approach

• We need to start from the end, asking ourselves the following questions: – What capabilities do the users need? – How can we make an effective use of existing resources, on

ground and on orbit? – How can we plan for future more flexible and interoperable space

infrastructures?

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Success Stories: TDRS (3rd Generation)

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Success Stories: ESA’s Artemis & EDRS

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Success Stories: TT&C Ground Networks

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Success Stories: NASA’s Interplanetary Internet

Moon Navigation & Communications Infrastructure: Modular, Expandable, COTS-Based Approach

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What do we mean by "service"? • By the term “service” we mean the guaranteed and

committed delivery of a capability to a community of potential customers/users;

• Focus on “commitment” (continued over time) and on

“customer satisfaction”; • “Technical performance” is an essential prerequisite,

but not an objective; • NOTA BENE: services are not alternative to (or in

competition with) technology and goods production. On the contrary, advanced, high value-added services need state-of-the-art technological products and systems to be provided. Examples: – Internet – Wireless communication networks – Electric power distribution infrastructure

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What is a Service System (Infrastructure)?

• Service (or service-oriented) systems are systems meant to provide value-added services through the use of technology (mainly information and communications and technologies, ICT);

• A “service system” has been defined as a

dynamic configuration of people, technology, organizational networks and shared information (such as languages, processes, metrics, prices, policies, and laws) designed to deliver services that satisfy the needs, wants, or aspirations of customers.

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Characteristics of Service Systems

• Large and complex systems • Software intensive (several million lines of code) • Capability-based rather than product-based • Organization and governance (human factor) • Technical performance is a prerequisite for

production and delivery of services, not a final objective

• In the definition of the Quality of Service (QoS), requirements related to operations and logistics, in addition to technical ones, assume a very high relevance: Reliability, Availability, Continuity Safety Flexibility Security Expandability Resilience Maintainability Interoperability

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Why Large, Strategic and Complex Systems?

• The increasing needs of our developed society ask for systemic solutions;

• Capabilities and services, rather than just products, are required (e.g. not cars, trucks, trains, railways, stations, but an integrated transportation system);

• Systems providing advanced capabilities and services are: Large, i.e. geographically distributed and network-centric; Strategic, i.e. providing essential services and

constituting the backbone of our advanced economy; Complex, i.e. based on advanced technologies, highly

software-intensive and requiring sophisticated Concepts of Operations

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Products vs. Services (Service Infrastructures)

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Large and Complex Systems (1/2)

• A large and complex system is a system composed of a large number of interconnected elements, often developed and deployed worldwide, which interact dynamically, giving rise to emergent properties

• Examples of complex systems for civil applications include: global satellite navigation systems air traffic control systems railway control systems space systems such as the International Space Station or

space transportation and exploration vehicles surveillance, Earth observation and Homeland security

systems electric power distribution systems telecommunication systems complex computer networks, including Internet.

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Large and Complex Systems (2/2)

• A complex system often integrates existing systems (or parts of them) in an overall large-scale architecture containing a large number of interfaces and implementing multiple modes of operation, in a highly dynamic environment;

• Large and complex systems require extensive

logistics and maintenance support capabilities; • Large and complex space-based systems (e.g.

Galileo) are conceived to be in service for a long time; in this case the evolution of the system (up-gradings and modifications) and its obsolescence have to be taken into account from the beginning.

Specifying a Service System

• Functional and technical performance: System Requirements Document (SRD)

• Operational requirements and scenarios: Concept of Operations (CONOPS) document

• Expected service behavior and non-functional performance: Service Level Agreement (SLA)

• A typical SLA defines Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) and Key Quality Indicators (KQI’s), with target values and target ranges to be achieved over a certain time period.

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Concept of Operations (CONOPS)

Life Cycle Multiple Perspectives

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Through-Life Capability Management

• Through-Life Capability Management (TLCM) is an approach to the acquisition and in-service management of a capability over its entire life-cycle, from cradle to grave;

• TLCM means evaluating a capability not just in the terms of a

single piece of equipment, but as a complete system or “system of systems”;

• TLCM recognizes the value of concurrent engineering, being

aware that the initial purchase cost (and risk) of a system is only a small fraction of the total cost of procurement;

• The adoption of a TLCM approach implies the evaluation of all

the costs involved in the utilization of a capability over its entire life-cycle, a.k.a. Total Cost of Ownership.

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Total Cost of Ownership

• Operators, including government establishments and commercial entities, are emphasizing reduced total cost of ownership of large and complex space systems;

• The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach asks for cost

trade-off’s throughout the total life cycle; • An optimum balance must be found between non-recurring

(CAPEX) development and integration costs and operating (OPEX) costs;

• Scalable architectures, design for reliability/

maintainability/supportability, interface standardization (physical and protocol levels) and SOA (Service-Oriented Architecture) technologies are promising “best practices” to achieve the total cost of ownership reduction goal.

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The Total Cost of Ownership Lifecycle

Acqu

isitio

n Co

st

Disposal Cost Support Cost

Maintenance

Cost

Operating Costs

TCO Lifecycle

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The Total Cost of Ownership Iceberg

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Cost vs. Reliability Trade-off

Evolution of Contracting in Aerospace

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Defence Acquisition System (DAS) DEFINITIONS in DoDI 5000.01 – DAS

• [Performance-Based Logistics]: PMs shall develop and implement performance-based logistics strategies that optimize total system availability while minimizing cost and logistics footprint. Trade-off decisions involving cost, useful service, and effectiveness shall consider corrosion prevention and mitigation. Sustainment strategies shall include the best use of public and private sector capabilities through government/industry partnering initiatives, in accordance with statutory requirements.

• [Systems Engineering]: Acquisition programs shall be managed through the application of a systems engineering approach that optimizes total system performance and minimizes total ownership costs. A modular, open-systems approach shall be employed, where feasible.

• [Total Systems Approach]: The PM shall be the single point of accountability for accomplishing program objectives for total life-cycle systems management, including sustainment. The PM shall apply human systems integration to optimize total system performance (hardware, software, and human), operational effectiveness, and suitability, survivability, safety, and affordability. PMs shall consider supportability, life cycle costs, performance, and schedule comparable in making program decisions. Planning for Operation and Support and the estimation of total ownership costs shall begin as early as possible. Supportability, a key component of performance, shall be considered throughout the system life cycle. 34

Affordability, Supportability, Sustainability

• Future space service infrastructures will be large complex systems, requiring large initial investments, very expensive to operate and maintain, meant to last for long periods of time (decades);

• Three features will then become key to the success of future space service infrastructure projects: – Affordability

– Supportability

– Sustainability

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Affordability

BUDGET

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Supportability

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Sustainability

From Products to Systems to Services

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From Products…

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…to Systems…

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…to Services

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European GNSS Agency (GSA),

Prague

Galileo Service Centre, Madrid

Early Services Task Force

Galileo System Infrastructure

Galileo Security

Monitoring Centre

Service Lifecycle (ITIL Standard)

The ITIL Process Model

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Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) • KPIs are tools that may be used by an organization (in

our case, a service enterprise) to define, measure, monitor and track its performance over time toward the achievement of its goals;

• KPIs must be quantitative and quantifiable; • KPIs need to be tailored to the specific organization

priorities and performance criteria. So a service organization, based on a large, complex, high-technology system infrastructure, will look to KPIs that measure areas of performance such as Availability, Continuity, Mean Time to Repair (MTTR), customer satisfaction indices, etc.;

• KPIs are often of statistical nature: they can be evaluated over fixed or rolling time periods.

Quantitatively Managed Process (1/2)

Quantitatively Managed Process (2/2)

Continuously Optimized Process

Space Market Requirements and Trends

1. Products/Services more and more complex 2. Increasing market competitiveness 3. Increasing market volatility 4. Reduction of the “time-to-market” 5. High rate of technological innovation 6. High probability of partial or total failure

lead to

NEW TECHNOLOGICAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL PARADIGMS

Paradigm Shifts in the Space Industry

1. Concurrent Engineering 2. Design to Cost 3. Design for Testability 4. Design for Producibility 5. Modular Approach to Design 6. Large Scale Production Techniques 7. Total Quality Management 8. Extensive Use of “off-the-shelf” Hardware and Software

Products 9. Electronic Management of Data (Data Management

Systems, PLM’s)

in one word:

CONCURRENT ENTERPRISE

Concurrent vs Waterfall Approach

Concurrency is the simultaneous involvement by all stakeholders in product development decisions from the outset and throughout the life cycle so that the entire value chain is reciprocally integrated—from idea to customer and back.

1. The bulk of costs are committed at early steps of a development cycle even though not expended until later

2. The cost of fixing faulty upstream decisions at late stages is exponentially greater than at earlier one

3. The opportunity costs of being late to market are very high, e.g., lower share, lower margins

4. Cross-functional teams typically provide a better quality solution to complex, dynamic product development problems than solo individuals—especially at early stages

5. Early simultaneous involvement in product development by cross-functional teams using structured development processes saves time and cost over the life cycle, especially if the design is novel.

Axioms of Concurrency

Concurrency: Axiom 1

Opportunità di riduzione del costo del prodotto

Il costo delle modifiche di un progetto aumenta in modo inversamente proporzionale alle possibilità di ridurre il costo del prodotto; è evidente che occorre progettare il prodotto con obiettivi di costo chiari e definiti sin dalle prime fasi della progettazione

Concezione Sviluppo del

prodotto

Sviluppo del processo

Produzione Utilizzo

Costo delle modifiche

di progetto

Una delle metodologie di Product Development finalizzate a mantenere sotto controllo i costi di prodotto in fase di progettazione è il Design-To-Cost (DTC)

Quanto costano gli errori quando

Software Cost Factors Systems Cost Factors

Requirements 1X

Design 5-7X 3-8X

Build 10X-26X 7X-16X

Test 50-177X 21-78X

Operations 100X-1000X 29-1615X

Concurrency & Collaboration: Concurrent Design Facilities

Concurrency and Customer Focus

The Concurrent Enterprise An Ensemble of Strategy, Process, Organization, and Tools

Through-life Integrated Concurrent Engineering

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TICE Multiple Perspectives

TICE

Project

Management

Systems Engineering

Operations Engineering

Logistics Engineering

Cost Engineering

Enterprise Engineering

The TICE-based Enterprise Characteristics

Space Commercialization and Sponsorship: an Old (Good?) Idea

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A Public-Private Partnership Business Model for Moon and Mars Colonization

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Services and "Spirit to Serve"

“Real Power is Service” Pope Francis

“I slept and dreamt that life was joy. I awoke and saw that life was service. I acted and behold, service was joy”

Rabindranath Tagore

“We serve our interests best when we serve the public interest” T. Watson, Jr.

“Joy can be real only if people look upon their life as a service, and have a definite object in life outside themselves and their personal happiness” Lev Tolstoj

Conclusions • Our economy is more and more depending on large,

strategic and complex service infrastructures, based on large, strategic and complex systems;

• The design of a complex service enterprise requires a wide range of skills and expertise's, covering organizational, engineering, social, legal and contractual aspects;

• The acquisition and contracting strategy in the Aerospace & Defense sector is evolving towards service and capability oriented schemes;

• The advent of a services economy imposes a radical conceptual paradigm shift: moving from technologies/products to capabilities and services;

• A Through-life Integrated Concurrent Engineering (TICE) approach is needed, integrating such paradigm shifts as concurrent engineering, design to cost, design for producibility and testability, design for maintenability, modular approach to design, total quality management;

• The “spirit to serve” (call it “customer focus”, if you prefer) is at the basis of all services.

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Korean

Thank You English

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