tokyo on the world stage (en) 2014 - jll日本 | ジョー … tokyo on the world stage contents...

Tokyo on the World StageCities Research Center, 2014

2 Tokyo on the World Stage

ContentsTokyo on the World Stage 3City Performance Indices 4The Shape of Competitiveness 12Real Estate Capital Flows 15Future Tokyo – The Resurgent City 21

Appendix 26


JLL 3

A new commercial geography of citiesTokyo is a clear ‘Super City’ as the world’s largest urban economy. Momentum is steadily building and the city has a newfound energy, aided by ‘Abenomics’ policies and lifted by securing the 2020 Olympic Games. But growth, while important, is only part of what makes a modern city successful. Competitiveness revolves around a new language of attributes such as liveability, transparency, resilience and global uency. Add to this unprecedented social change and the demand for smart cities, and it is clear that the urban agenda has radically changed.

Against this backdrop, the evolution of Tokyo and its real estate market over the next decade holds an intriguing mixture of vast promise and perplexing challenge. Not only are the Olympics set to give a huge boost to the city and its international reputation, but to meet its own aspirations of improving its world position, Tokyo may have to absorb a number of signi cant changes to its fabric and lifestyle, and even to its personality.

Tokyo on the World Stage

We are in the midst of an unprecedented urban revolution. There are now in excess of 1,600 major cities1 across the world housing 2.2 billion people … all jostling for global attention and looking for a winning edge. Competition between cities for capital, corporations and talent has never been stronger. Over the last decade the combined forces of globalisation, urbanisation and modernisation have brought many previously unfamiliar cities onto the world stage and have also propelled four cities into the realm of ‘Super City’ status – and – an elite group that possesses a powerful combination of economic scale and in uence, deep corporate bases, highly liquid real estate investment markets and large, diverse and high-quality commercial real estate stocks.

These four cities wield signi cant economic might, particularly in the commercial real estate market, but they need to remain agile and innovative in order to retain their dominance in a world where global connectivity and technology is enabling smaller cities to gain rapid momentum and achieve a global position by developing environments conducive to inventive and creative activity.


Tokyo’s global competitive position is fundamentally tied to its unique economic scale as the world’s most populous city, with the largest economy and consumer market. Greater Tokyo’s economy exceeds US$1.4 trillion2 (as large as the economy of Spain) and, with nearly 38 million consumers, its domestic market far exceeds even that of New York, London and Paris. The city region is also home to more Forbes Global 2000 headquarters than any other city.

3

Source: JLL, UN, Oxford Economics, Forbes

City Performance Indices

Millions

0 10 20 30 40

Rio de Janeiro Chongqing

Los Angeles Istanbul Kolkata

Buenos Aires Karachi

Dhaka Cairo

Beijing New York

Mumbai Sao Paulo

Mexico City Shanghai

Seoul Manila

Delhi Jakarta

Tokyo

Population

US$ billions

0 500 1.000 1.500

Hong Kong Philadelphia

Buenos Aires Osaka

San Francisco Mexico City

Sao Paulo Dallas

Washington DC Houston

Beijing Moscow

Shanghai Chicago

Paris London

Los Angeles Seoul

New York Tokyo

GDP

Forbes 2000 HQs

0 50 100 150

Washington DC Shanghai

Moscow Stockholm

Dallas Sydney

Osaka Toronto

San Jose Mumbai Houston

Taipei Chicago

Beijing Hong Kong

Paris Seoul

London New York

Tokyo

Headquarters

+ 5-10%

The overall pre-eminence of Tokyo is highlighted in JLL’s 2014 Commercial Attraction Index, which measures a city’s economic and real estate power and status, based on a basket of variables.4 The Index is distinct in that it includes key real estate measures (namely investment volumes and commercial real estate stock), as well as socio-economic and business indicators such as economic output, population, corporate presence and air connectivity.

Tokyo tops the Index, followed closely by the other three ‘Super Cities’. Several Asian cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Seoul and Singapore are now a permanent feature of the top ranks and provide stiff competition across a number of individual city attributes.

JLL 5

2 New York

3 London

4 Paris

5 Los Angeles

6 Seoul

7 Chicago

8 Shanghai

9 Beijing

10 Washington DC

11 Moscow

12 Hong Kong

13 Atlanta

14 Dallas

15 Singapore

16 Sao Paulo

17 San Francisco

18 Houston

19 Jakarta

20 Toronto

Population

c OutputEconomic

porate PresenceCorp

ivityConnecti

ate StockReal Esta

mentReal Estate Investm

Source: JLL, 2014


Indices from other leading authorities on city competitiveness paint a similar picture of economic dominance and the city as a key location for strategic business activity, which is symptomatic of a reorientation of Tokyo’s role in the global economy. Tokyo’s performance in the Mori Memorial Foundation’s prestigious Global Power City Index highlights its attraction in terms of market size, economic vitality and human capital. In the AT Kearney Global Cities Index, which measures global engagement, the city ranks fourth globally. The city also maintains signi cant scale advantages in the size and sophistication of its nancial services sector, highlighted by its performance in the Z/Yen Global Financial Centres Index.

5

Source: Mori Memorial Foundation, AT Kearney, Z/Yen

1 London

2 New York

3 Paris

5 Singapore

6 Seoul

7 Amsterdam

8 Berlin

9 Hong Kong

10 Vienna

11 Frankfurt

12 Zurich

13 Sydney

14 Beijing

15 Shanghai

16 Stockholm

17 Toronto

18 Copenhagen

19 Madrid

20 Los Angeles

1 New York

2 London

3 Paris

5 Hong Kong

6 Los Angeles

7 Chicago

8 Beijing

9 Singapore

10 Washington DC

11 Brussels

12 Seoul

13 Toronto

14 Sydney

15 Madrid

16 Vienna

17 Moscow

18 Shanghai

19 Berlin

20 Buenos Aires

Global Cities

1 New York

2 London

3 Hong Kong

4 Singapore

5 San Francisco

6

7 Zurich

8 Seoul

9 Boston

10 Washington DC

11 Toronto

12 Chicago

13 Geneva

14 Vancouver

15 Luxembourg

16 Frankfurt

17 Dubai

18 Montreal

19 Abu Dhabi

20 Shanghai

Global Financial Centres

JLL 7

Looking beyond the pure size measures highlights the underlying competitive advantages that Tokyo holds in relation to its innovation capabilities, creativity, liveability and sustainability credentials:

Tokyo’s high-technology, R D and manufacturing specialisms are key sources of con dence and dynamism for the city. A large pool of technology-focused workers, combined with research-led universities, has translated into an overall commercial capability that is stronger than London and New York, as highlighted by its top position in the IESE Cities in Motion Index.6

Globally, the city is widely recognised for its creativity – in a recent survey by Adobe,7 Tokyo was ranked as the ‘World’s Most Creative City’, acknowledging its contribution and in uence to global innovation and youth culture.

Tokyo sits in 15th position in the 2thinknow Innovation Cities Index8 which, we believe, re ects an issue in the translation of creativity into commerce. According to the OECD,9 for example, Tokyo has by far the largest number of patent applications of any city worldwide, a key measure of a city’s innovation potential. However, San Francisco, which has half the level of patents, far exceeds Tokyo in terms of tech start-ups.

INNOVATION

10 places

6 places

5 places

3 places

COST

$

BRAND GATEWAY

FUNCTIONS

Nevertheless, the business of cities is about being competitive across an ever-growing agenda of indicators. The language of modern city competitiveness is changing and revolves around a broad range of attributes … from liveability, sustainability and resilience, to transparency, talent and technological depth.

Source: 2thinknow Innovation Cities; PwC Cities of Opportunity, ICCA


A superior infrastructure, enabled by the large investment capability of the city’s Governor and Metropolitan Government are critical drivers of business productivity and help boost quality of life in the context of a strong ‘life support infrastructure’. Tokyo features in second position behind Copenhagen in Monocle’s leading-edge Quality of Life Survey.10

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government is a pioneer on environmental issues and has initiated policies on energy and climate change, which have steered the national agenda. Tokyo ranks second only to Singapore on the Siemens Asian Green City Index11 as a result of such policies.

Source: 2thinknow, IESE, Monocle, Siemens

1 San Francisco 2 New York3 London 4 Boston 5 Paris 6 Vienna 7 Munich 8 Amsterdam 9 Copenhagen 10 Seattle 11 Toronto 12 Seoul 13 Berlin 14 Los Angeles

16 Stockholm17 Sydney 18 Hamburg 19 Lyon 20 Hong Kong

2 London3 New York4 Zurich 5 Paris 6 Geneva 7 Basel 89 Seoul 10 Oslo 11 Philadelphia 12 Los Angeles 13 Dallas 14 Copenhagen 15 Eindhoven 16 Amsterdam 17 Sydney 18 Stockholm 19 Chicago 20 Baltimore

Cities in Motion

1 Copenhagen

3 Melbourne 4 Stockholm 5 Helsinki 6 Vienna 7 Zurich 8 Munich 9

11 Sydney 12 Auckland 13 Hong Kong 14 Berlin 15 Vancouver 16 Singapore 17 Madrid 18 Paris 19 Amsterdam 20 Hamburg

Monocle

1 Singapore

3 Hong Kong

5 Seoul6 Taipei78 Bangkok 9 Beijing 10 Delhi11 Guangzhou 12 Jakarta 13 Kuala Lumpur 14 Nanjing 15 Shanghai16 Wuhan 17 Bangalore 18 Hanoi 19 Kolkata20 Manila

SiemensAsian Green City

JLL 9

The Indices also, however, bring to the surface areas where Tokyo is challenged. While it clearly excels in dimensions of scale and power, the city’s position in several other areas is more ambiguous. The ease of conducting business compares less favourably with the other ‘Super Cities’, exacerbated by a weaker entrepreneurial environment. Tokyo’s enduring infrastructure and technological strengths appear to need another cycle of updating to stay world-class; and the city’s brand has weakened in some measures as other Asian cities offer compelling destination advantages.

Nonetheless, a number of these challenges are already being addressed:

Tokyo has discovered a new con dence as a result of securing the II Olympic Games. The city will be preparing for 2020 like no other, which will signi cantly boost Tokyo’s international status and pro le. Moreover, numerous governmental bodies and initiatives are contributing to the promotion of the Japanese brand internationally. Of particular note is the ‘Cool Japan’ initiative, supported by Tokyo’s city international promotion campaigns. This global in uence will be further strengthened by the ‘Tokyo Vision 2020’ projects.

Infrastructure development in the build-up to the Olympics will provide legacy both through the provision of Olympic facilities and through the strengthening of Tokyo’s transportation infrastructure. The planned transport projects will drive greater mobility within the city, and particularly to the Tokyo Bay Zone, home of the key Olympic facilities.

A key vision of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government (TMG) is to:

‘Transform Tokyo into a global business centre that attracts human resources, capitaland information from around the world, to further enhance the city’s vitality’. Yoichi Masuzoe, Governor of Tokyo12

To realise this ambition, the TMG aims to remove both hard and soft barriers to make Tokyo a ‘barrier-free’ city. This covers a broad range of areas from the removal of language barriers, increasing ease of doing business with Tokyo’s National Strategic Special Zone, through to the strengthening of the city’s information and communications infrastructure.

Tokyo is witnessing a sharp increase in tourism, with foreign visitor numbers to Japan growing at an annualised rate of 26% to reach record levels.13 A number of factors have come into play – the relaxing of requirements for tourist visas issued to Chinese and ASEAN nationals, the streamlining of immigration procedures for overseas visitors, the expansion of low-cost carriers, improving tourism infrastructure and the depreciation of the yen against other major currencies. The government aims to double foreign visitors by 2020, with initiatives to create ‘Integrated Resorts’ and to legalise casinos.

Tokyo is a globally-renowned shopping city, with one of the largest concentrations of retail in the world. An improving economic environment, rising retail sales and increasing tourism have revived retailer interest in the city, with a number of retailers opening agship stores.


Dispelling the myths Tokyo’s position on key city competitiveness indices also highlights some of the misconceptions of the city as a place to live and work. The city’s ranking on several ‘liveability’ indices proves that it is possible for citizens to have the bene ts of a large megalopolis without many of the disadvantages of urban decay, crime and pollution: In terms of air pollution, for example - a pressing concern for most major Asian cities; and one that is affecting

location choices of corporations and expats - Tokyo scores the lowest in the continent.

The Greater Tokyo region also has population densities that are below its regional peers.

A range of cost indices show that Tokyo is no longer among the most expensive locations to do business, illustrated by benchmark gross rental levels for prime of ce assets, which are now signi cantly below London and Hong Kong.

Osaka 27Singapore 29Jakarta 43Manila 47Chennai 48Kuala Lumpur 49Hong Kong 50Bangkok 54Seoul 64Guangzhou 70Shanghai 81Bangalore 90Tianjin 101Chengdu 111Beijing 121Mumbai 132Kolkata 148Delhi 198

Kuala Lumpur 3,400

Tianjin 5,000Beijing 5,100Guangzhou 5,300Osaka 5,400Bangkok 6,100Shanghai 6,200Chengdu 8,100Bangalore 8,200Jakarta 9,600Chennai 9,700Seoul 10,100Singapore 10,500Delhi 11,600Kolkata 12,400Manila 14,400Hong Kong 25,700Mumbai 32,300

Population/sq km Source: Demographica

PM10 ConcentrationSource: World Heath Organisation

JLL 11

0

50

100

150

200

Tokyo (Otemachi / Marunouchi)

Singapore (Raffles Place)

Hong Kong (Central)

London (West End)

New York (Plaza District)

US$ / sq ft / per year

Gross Rents, Q2 2014Source: JLL, 2014

JLL 11


Competition among cities to attract talent, trade and capital is erce, but unlike the rigid hierarchy of the past, modern urbanism sees many different routes to success with diverse styles re ected in cities performing differentially in certain attributes but equally well overall. How well a city does across these indicators gives it a competitive shape as shown by the .

For and its peer cities, comparator indicators include not just size measures, but also those of connectivity, corporate presence, education and innovation – as well as real estate activity – so that, when transferred visually into a competitiveness cobweb, the shape of the cities’ comparative strengths becomes more obvious.

The cobwebs illustrate the typical ‘roundness’ of the four ‘Super Cities’, scoring well across a range of attributes which has enabled them to excel as large, economically-diverse and internationally-connected cities.

– One of the world’s most internationally-connected cities, with a strong educational base supporting its status as a global nancial and services centre and an increasing reputation for innovation, complemented by a renowned cultural offering.

– A global commercial and cultural centre, with openness and international reach contributing to a wide diversity of talent and an impressive research base.

– Deep R D and technology expertise, strengths in education, and cultural vibrancy have been offset somewhat in recent years by slower growth and a less open business environment than some of its peer ‘Super Cities’.

–- One of the world’s largest corporate bases, nancial markets and R D centres, with world-class infrastructure and educational opportunities, compromised by relatively low levels of market transparency and openness, indicative of its lower scores on business-friendliness measures.

Tokyo’s regional peer cities are each travelling in speci c directions, with differential strengths and weaknesses. In today’s hierarchy, there are different routes to success:

Shanghai – An emerging contender for ‘Super City’ status, Shanghai is mainland China’s nancial centre with robust connections to international markets and investment, although this position is hampered by low market transparency.

– A cultural and business destination with expanding banking services and growing educational possibilities as it seeks to become a services as well as policy and manufacturing hub.

– One of the world’s largest nancial centres with a diverse skills base and services economy, Hong Kong has also bene ted from its openness and position as a gateway into the wider Chinese market.

Seoul – A strong corporate base with a heavy focus on research and technology has added to Seoul’s status as one of the world’s ‘smartest’ cities.

Singapore – An emphasis on business-friendliness and its status as a regional hub, bene ting from increased capital ows to Asia, has propelled Singapore into a global nancial centre and technology research centre.

– Its globally important nancial centre and strong knowledge economy are complemented by internationally-recognised quality of life and high levels of market transparency.

The Shape of Competitiveness

JLL 13

Tokyo

New York London Paris

Shanghai

Seoul Singapore

Beijing Hong Kong

Sydney

City GDP Office Rental

Change

Real Estate Investment Volumes

Investment Intensity

Office Stock

Real Estate Transparency

Education

Patents

Corporate Presence

Connectivity

Population

Source: JLL, 2014. See Appendix14

14 Tokyo on the World Stage14 Tokyo on the World Stage

JLL 15

The ows of capital into real estate are a key barometer of a city’s health and its attraction as an international destination, not only for capital but for corporations and talent. Analysis of recent ows shows a pattern of domination of the world’s major cities, with just 30 cities accounting for half of total global commercial real estate investment volumes. In Asia Paci c, the top seven cities (Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Seoul, Shanghai, Sydney and Beijing) represent close to 60% of regional investment volumes.15

The weight and in uence of the ‘Super Cities’ is particularly apparent – with London, New York, Tokyo and Paris responsible for nearly one- fth of global investment volumes. From a real estate investment perspective, size certainly gives the choice, the liquidity and the variety of product ... factors that are so important to any real estate investor, hence the overwhelming share of capital into the world’s major business hubs.

Real Estate Capital Flows

Direct Commercial Property Investment, three-year total volumes, Q2 2011 - Q2 2014Source: JLL, 2014

US$ bn

97

3

5 Los Angeles 37

6 Chicago 30

7 Washington DC 29

8

9 Singapore

Seoul

US$ bn

Shanghai

12 San Francisco 23

13 Boston 22

15 Dallas 18

16 Seattle 17

17 Toronto 16

18 Houston 16

19 Stockholm 15

20 Moscow 15

US$ bn

21 Munich 15

22 San Jose 14

24 Atlanta 13

25 San Diego 12

26 Frankfurt 12

27 Denver 11

28 Miami 11

29 Phoenix 10

30 Berlin 10

Super Cities Asia Paci c Peers


However, a characteristic of global uency is openness and global engagement – and the attraction of cross-border real estate investment is one of the signs of global uency. Signi cantly, the proportion of cross-border investment activity (i.e. deals where the purchaser is a non-domestic entity) in Tokyo is notably below the other three ‘Super Cities’. Tokyo has, as yet, certainly been less open to international money, highlighting signi cant potential for growth and for further engagement with the international investor community.

Three years, Q2 2011 – Q2 2014. ‘Cross-Border’ denotes deals where purchasers are non-domesticSource: JLL, 2014

Cross-Border Domestic

JLL 17

The latent potential in Tokyo’s real estate market is well recognised by investors across the world and is highlighted in the results of the JLL City Investment Intensity Index.16 This measures not just the volume of investment capital but the volume relative to economic size, i.e. investment intensity, which reveals that Tokyo is in 30th position.

The reasons for this run from simple weight of domestic funding and demand through to real and perceived challenges of doing business in Japan; in particular the lower levels of real estate transparency compared to Tokyo’s competitors.

1 Oslo2 Munich3 London4 Stockholm5 Copenhagen6 Sydney7 Warsaw8 Frankfurt9 Gothenburg

10 Paris11 Taipei12 Edinburgh13 Singapore14 San Fransicso15 Hong Kong16 Zurich

21 New York

Three-year rolling total direct real estate investment volumes to Q2 2014Source: JLL, 2014


New York TOKYO

London

Paris

Seoul

Shanghai

Beijing

Washington DC

Moscow

Hong Kong

Singapore

Sao Paulo

Toronto

Jakarta Istanbul

Sydney

Bangkok

Delhi

Mumbai

Frankfurt

Kuala Lumpur Madrid

Dubai

OSAKA

Amsterdam

Stockholm

Berlin

Rome Rio de Janeiro

Taipei

Brussels

Dublin

Zurich

Copenhagen

Oslo

Ho Chi Minh City

Warsaw

Prague

Riyadh

Helsinki

Doha

Macau

R = 0.48

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1 2 3 4

City

Inve

stm

ent I

nten

sity

Real Estate Transparency

City Investment Intensity; three-year (rolling Q2 2011- Q2 2014) total real estate investment volumes as proportion of city GDP. Real Estate Transparency at a National LevelSource: JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index, 2014; JLL City Investment Intensity Index, 2014


JLL 19

A real estate regulatory authority to oversee and fast-track improvements

Greater visibility of service charges and building operating costs for occupiers – to enhance business and building ef ciency

Industry tracking of market fundamentals data – notably in the retail, industrial and hotels sectors

JLL’s Global Real Estate Transparency Index17 places Tokyo in 26th position globally, towards the lower end of the ‘Transparent’ category, with levels similar to Kuala Lumpur, Budapest and Prague.

This re ects Japan’s traditional real estate practices and for Tokyo to ful l the exacting modernisation tasks it has set itself, the city will require improvement in several key areas.

$

Transactions Reporting

Full disclosure from large real estate owners of transaction pricing, which can be fully accessed by the public Indices to measure the nancial

performance of green buildings

Greater adoption of energy benchmarking systems for real estate

Source: JLL, 2014


Main commercial city in each countrySource: JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index, 2014

Category

Highly Transparent

1 London 1.252 New York 1.343 Sydney 1.364 Auckland 1.445 Paris 1.526 Toronto 1.527 Amsterdam 1.578 Dublin 1.629 Helsinki 1.69

Transparent

10 Zurich 1.7311 Stockholm 1.7912 Frankfurt 1.7913 Singapore 1.8114 Hong Kong 1.8715 Brussels 1.9216 Copenhagen 1.9617 Warsaw 2.0218 Madrid 2.0519 Oslo 2.0720 Johannesburg 2.0921 Vienna 2.1022 Milan 2.1023 Lisbon 2.1824 Prague 2.2025 Budapest 2.21

27 Kuala Lumpur 2.2728 Sao Paulo 2.44

JLL 21

In order to maintain its top position, Tokyo will need to continually adapt to the future trends that are rippling across its landscapes – particularly relating to ‘smartness’, business friendliness, sustainability, and physical and economic resilience; requirements well recognised in the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s 2020 Vision and Future City initiatives. Core themes for the revitalisation of the city are being implemented, partly through 12 key projects (see below) including retro tting buildings, creating a smart city, upgrading infrastructure and creating power redundancy, as well as attracting Asian headquarters and major global sporting events and conferences.

100% Completion of Seismic Retro tting

Increasing Fire-Resistance of Districts with Close-Set Wooden Houses

3 Mutual Assistance for Disaster Mitigation

3 million kW Made-in-Tokyo Power Generation

5 Creating a Smart City

6 Building a Network of Water and Greenery

7 Bolstering the Land, Sea and Air Transport Network

8 Asian Headquarters in Tokyo

9 Bolstering Tokyo’s Child Day-Care System

Active Participation in Society by Senior Citizens

Let Your Child Experience the World

Build Four Big Sports Clusters

Future Tokyo – The Resurgent City

Source: Tokyo Metropolitan Government


Various initiatives to improve Tokyo’s business environment and increase the city’s business openness are being developed as part of the national Special Economic Zones programmes. The bene ts of the zones will include various incentives (e.g. taxes, subsidies), deregulation measures (e.g. faster immigration processes and reduction of investment procedures) and business and living support (such as information in multiple languages).

Special Zone

The zone (which includes nine central wards in Tokyo) is intended to increase international competitiveness and create centres of economic activity to drive through structural reform of the economic system. It aims to create a new business base that attracts money, people and businesses globally and stimulates the growth of home-grown internationally competitive start-ups. It also addresses the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s vision of making Tokyo the most business-friendly environment in the world in the run-up to the 2020 Olympic Games.

Special Zone for Asian

This zone (located in the central Tokyo and waterfront areas) aims to attract Asian regional headquarters and R D centres, and by doing so to raise Tokyo’s international competitiveness. The 2016 target is to have at least 500 foreign companies located in the zone, 50 of which are to be Asian regional headquarters or R D centres.

Future success is also about actively leveraging the speed of change, building and exploiting momentum, and being able to adapt to change. In order to capture cities that are successfully transforming, JLL has produced its City Momentum Index18 which tracks the speed of change. Covering the Top 111 major established and emerging business hubs across the globe, the Index measures each city’s short-term socio-economic and real estate momentum, and also combines measures of ‘future-proo ng’ – whether a city has the essential ingredients to ensure longer-term sustainable momentum in terms of education, innovation and sustainability.

JLL 23

Tokyo sits comfortably among the top performers in JLL’s City Momentum Index, grouped among the ‘Resurgent Cities’ as a result of the city’s newfound energy, which has been aided by ‘Abenomics’ policies and boosted by securing the 2020 Olympics. Moreover, the city has many of the high-value incubators necessary for longer-term success – factors such as a world-class higher education infrastructure, an outstanding research base and a strong innovation economy.

Source: JLL, 2014

Incubator CitiesParis, Berlin, Chicago

AmsterdamCopenhagen, Sydney

San Francisco, San Jose Austin, Boston, Seoul

Toronto, Munich

Resurgent Cities

Dubai, Dublin

Lima, Jakarta, Bogota Manila, Bangkok

Shanghai, Beijing Wuhan, Chengdu, Tianjin Shenzhen, Guangzhou

Mumbai, Delhi

Global GatewaysLondon, New York

Hong Kong, SingaporeLos Angeles


Tokyo’s economic momentum is re ected in its real estate dynamics. Tokyo’s of ce market is expected to record one of the fastest rates of value growth in 2015 (following a robust 2014), putting the city back on track to again compete with London and New York as the world’s most active commercial real estate investment market.

*New York – Midtown, London – West End, Paris - CBD. Nominal rates in local currencySource: JLL, October 2014

Rental Values

Beijing

London*, New York*, San FranciscoSydney, Los Angeles, Chicago

Hong Kong, SingaporeParis*, Madrid, Seoul Mumbai, ShanghaiFrankfurt, Washington DC

Sao Paulo

Moscow

Capital Values

Beijing

London*, New York*, San FranciscoSydney, Los Angeles, Chicago Madrid, Seoul

Paris*, Washington DCMumbai, FrankfurtSingapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong

Sao Paulo

Moscow

JLL 25

The future health of Tokyo relies on the city refreshing its global reputation and addressing the constraints on international business activity … and the real estate industry has an essential role to play:

by improving real estate transparency, an essential ingredient of a globally uent city, which will support business ef ciency and help attract global corporations;

by creating the style of commercial real estate stock that will enable Tokyo to grow into its ‘new skin’ and that re ects changing attitudes to work, even if this means short-term market disequilibrium;

by doing more on the ‘green building’ front, which not only makes sense environmentally, but will increasingly be a key selling point for investors and corporate occupiers; and

by contributing to Tokyo’s international pro le and brand through state-of-the-art urban design and business practices.

Tokyo has created a new web of policies and approaches that recognise and seek to act where existing attributes require strengthening and where weak spots need addressing. The vibrancy of the city’s real estate market will help push improvement and be a happy recipient of change. JLL looks forward to helping Tokyo achieve its global ambition.


1 UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 2014. Cities with over 300,000 population.2 JLL’s estimate of total GDP (in Purchasing Power Parity terms) for the Greater Tokyo area (as de ned by the UN) with a population of 37.8 million people.3 Data relates to the urban agglomeration of each city as de ned by the UN or national statistical of ces.4 JLL’s Commercial Attraction Index is based on the weighted score of six indicators – population of a city’s urban agglomeration, estimated GDP (PPP) of a city’s urban agglomeration, a measure of a city’s corporate presence (HQs and revenues of Forbes 2000), combined air passengers of a city’s airports, current of ce stock estimates and commercial real estate investment volumes (over the past three years). 5 Mori Memorial Foundation Global Power City Index, October 2014. Institute for Urban Strategies of the Mori Memorial Foundation. Report covers 40 cities. AT Kearney Global Cities Index, 2014. Published by AT Kearney. The report covers 84 cities. Z/Yen Global Financial Centres Index, September 2014. Published by Long Finance within Z/Yen, under the ‘Financial Centre Futures’ programmes sponsored by Qatar Financial Centre Authority and the City of London Corporation. Report covers 83 nancial centres. 6 IESE Cities in Motion Index, 2014. Published by IESE Business School in partnership with Telefonica, BBVA, Ferrovial, Schneider Electric and Arqtel, and in collaboration with Smart City Expo World Congress. Report covers 135 cities. Measures the future sustainability of cities and their inhabitants.7 The State of Create Report, Adobe, 2012.8 2thinknow Innovation Cities Index, 2014. Published by 2thinknow, under the ‘Innovation Cities Program’. Report covers 445 cities. It measures the cities’ potential as an innovation economy (cultural assets, infrastructure and network connectivity).9 OECD Metropolitan Database, whose patent data is primarily drawn from the EPO Worldwide Patent Statistical Database. 10 Monocle Quality of Life Survey, July/August 2014. Published by Monocle Magazine Issue 75, Volume 8. The report includes the Top 25 most liveable cities in the world.11 Siemens Asian Green City Index, Spring 2011. Published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU); sponsored by Siemens. Report covers 22 major Asian cities.12 Governor of Tokyo, Yoichi Masuzoe’s Policy Speech at the Second Regular Session of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, 2014. 13 Number of foreign visitors, year to August 2014 v 2013. Source: JNTO (Japan National Tourism Organization).14 JLL City Competitiveness Cobwebs. The JLL City Cobwebs provide a visual representation of the economic and real estate climate across the Global Top 100 Cities. Each City Cobweb is created from the 11 sets of variables detailed below. The position of a city for each variable is based on the percentage of the maximum value for the Top 100 cities. Indicators: City GDP – latest estimate of the total annual output (GDP) of a city’s metropolitan area Of ce Rental Change – latest annual percentage change in rents for prime of ce assets Real Estate Investment Volumes – US$ value of direct commercial real estate investment over a three-year period Investment Intensity – direct commercial real estate investment as a proportion of city GDP Of ce Stock – volume in square metres of the total of ce stock of the city Real Estate Transparency – score of the level of real estate transparency at a country level derived from JLL’s Global Real Estate Transparency Index Education – score based on the presence (number and quality) of top-ranked universities in a metropolitan area Patents – latest annual number of PCT (Patent Cooperation Treaty) patent applications from a metropolitan area Corporate Presence – score based on the presence (number and revenue) of the Forbes Global 2000 companies Connectivity – total number of air passengers passing through a city’s airports (Source: ACI) Population – latest population of a city’s metropolitan region15 JLL monitors direct commercial real estate investment transactions over US$5 million in the of ces, retail, industrial, hotels and mixed-use sectors. Development deals and residential are excluded. 16 JLL City Investment Intensity Index is derived from direct commercial real estate investment volumes (over a three-year period) as a proportion of the GDP (PPP) of a city’s urban agglomeration. Tokyo’s score is based on the Tokyo Metropolis.17 JLL’s Global Real Estate Transparency Index, 2014, measures ve components of real estate transparency – performance measurement, market fundamentals data, listed vehicles’ governance, legal and regulatory, and transaction processes. The Index covers 102 markets. A lower composite score indicates higher transparency.18 JLL’s City Momentum Index (2014) covers 111 cities. The Index is derived from the weighted score of socio-economic momentum (change in population, GDP, air connectivity, corporate HQs, FDI), real estate momentum (change in occupational demand, construction, price movement – of ces and retail, investment volumes, transparency) and long-term incubators (university excellence, tech start-ups, innovation capacity).

Appendix - Footnotes

JLL 27

For more information on JLL’s Cities Research, visit:www.jll.com/cities-research

Our City Comparison Toolkit will help you visualize the position of individual cities and compare one city against another.

JLL 27

COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2014.This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not necessarily purport to be a complete analysis of the topics discussed, which are inherently unpredictable. It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently veri ed those sources and we do not guarantee that the information in the report is accurate or complete. Any views expressed in the report re ect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. Statements that are forward-looking involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause future realities to be materially different from those implied by such forward-looking statements. Advice we give to clients in particular situations may differ from the views expressed in this report. No investment or other business decisions should be made based solely on the views expressed in this report

JLL Cities Research Contacts

JLL Tokyo Contacts

JLL Regional Headquarters

Japan f ces

Rosemary FeenanGlobal Research, [email protected]

Global Research, [email protected]

Managing Director/Country Head, [email protected]

Head of Research, [email protected]

Chicago200 East Randolph DriveChicago IL 60601USA+1 312 782 5800

30 Warwick StreetLondon W1B 5NHUnited Kingdom+44 20 7493 4933

Singapore9 Raf es Place#39-00 Republic PlazaSingapore 048619+65 6220 3888

4F Prudential Tower2-13-10 Nagata-choChiyoda-kuTokyo 100-0014Japan +81 3 5501 9200

5F Seitoh Kaikan5-7 SanbanchoChiyoda-kuTokyo 102-0075Japan+81 3 5210 8400

6F Honmachi Allgo Building 4-4-25 HonmachiChuo-kuOsaka 541-0053Japan+81 6 6282 3777

2F Daihakata Building2-20-1 Hakata-ekimae Hakata-ku Fukuoka 812-0011Japan+81 92 471 6831

tokyo on the world stage (en) 2014 - jll日本 | ジョー … tokyo on the world stage contents...

Documents