universal basic skills - what countries stand to gain

11 The post-2015 education agenda

Universal basic skillsWhat countries stand to gain

11 May 2015, LondonAndreas Schleicher

22 Focus on quality

How well do today’s schools prepare for tomorrow’s world?

What do 15-year-olds know in math and science……and what can they do with what they know?

Singapore

Hong Kong-ChinaChinese Taipei

Korea

Macao-ChinaJapan LiechtensteinSwitzerland

NetherlandsEstonia FinlandCanada

PolandBelgiumGermany Viet Nam

Austria AustraliaIrelandSlovenia

DenmarkNew ZealandCzech Republic France

United KingdomIceland

LatviaLuxembourg NorwayPortugal ItalySpain

Russian Fed.Slovak Republic United StatesLithuaniaSwedenHungary

CroatiaIsrael

GreeceSerbiaTurkey

Romania

BulgariaU.A.E.KazakhstanThailand

ChileMalaysia

Mexico410

420

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

510

520

530

540

550

560

570

580

Mean score

High mathematics performance

Low mathematics performance

… Shanghai-China performs above this line (613)

Average performance

of 15-year-olds in

Mathematics (PISA)Fig I.2.13

Below PISA Level 2

At this level, students can answer questions involving familiar contexts where all relevant information is

present and the questions are clearly defined. They are able to identify information and to carry out routine procedures according to direct instructions in explicit situations. They can perform actions that are a

lmost always obvious and follow immediately from the given stimuli.

Low mathematics performanceIran*

Costa Rica

UruguayMontenegro

Bahrain*

Georgia*Brazil JordanArgentina Albania

Tunisia MacedoniaSaudi Arabia* Colombia

QatarIndonesiaBotswana*

Peru Oman*

Morocco*

Honduras*

South Africa*

Ghana*

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

* Substituted from TIMSS

Countries not covered

The world is no longer divided between rich and well-

educated countries, and poor and badly-educated ones

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

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80%

90%

100%

Qata

r

Om

an

Saudi Ara

bia

Bahra

in

Mala

ysia

Kaza

khst

an

UAE

Isra

el

Gre

ece

Slo

vak R

epublic

Sw

eden

Luxe

mbourg

Hungary

Icela

nd

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tate

s

Portugal

Italy

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ian F

edera

tion

Lith

uania

Norw

ay

Fra

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Spain

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nd

Belg

ium

United K

ingdom

Cze

ch R

epublic

Aust

ria

Denm

ark

Aust

ralia

Slo

venia

Latv

ia

Germ

any

Neth

erlands

Irela

nd

Sw

itze

rland

Canada

Pola

nd

Chin

ese

Taip

ei

Fin

land

Japan

Sin

gapore

Kore

a

Est

onia

Hong-K

ong C

hin

a

High income does not protect against poor education

Share of 15-year-olds below PISA Level 2in high-income countries (>25K$)

(reading, math and science)

Regular but moderate physical exercise is good for our health

What happens when muscles are exercised? Circle “Yes” or “No” for each statement.

Does this happen when muscles are exercised? Yes or No?

Muscles get an increased flow of blood. Yes / No

Fats are formed in the muscles. Yes / No

Answering this question correctly corresponds to a difficulty of 386 score points on the PISA science scale. Across countries, 82% of students answered correctly. This question assesses students’ competency of explaining phenomena scientifically.

% students by country who answered correctly

Finland 93

Hungary 91

Russian Federation 90

Slovenia 89

Latvia 88

Czech Republic 88

Iceland 88

Greece 87

Portugal 87

Croatia 86

Spain 86

Italy 85

Liechtenstein 85

Hong Kong- China 85

Australia 85

Canada 84

Denmark 84

Serbia 84

New Zealand 84

Belgium 84

Poland 84

Netherlands 84

Tunisia 83

Slovak Republic 83

United Kingdom 83

OECD average 82

Sweden 82

Switzerland 82

Chile 82

Turkey 82

Thailand 81

Macao-China 81

Bulgaria 81

Jordan 80

Israel 80

Japan 80

Luxembourg 79

Austria 79

France 79

Mexico 78

Germany 77

Estonia 77

Chinese Taipei 77

Norway 76

United States 76

Romania 76

Montenegro 76

Ireland 76

Argentina 75

Lithuania 73

Azerbaijan 72

Brazil 71

Korea 68

Colombia 63

Kyrgyzstan 57

Indonesia 54

Qatar 53

Mei-Ling from Singapore was preparing to go to South Africa for 3 months as an exchange student. She needed to change some Singapore dollars (SGD) into South African rand (ZAR).

Question: Mei-Ling found out that the exchange rate between Singapore dollars and South African rand was:

1 SGD = 4.2 ZAR

Mei-Ling changed 3000 Singapore dollars into South African rand at this exchange rate. How much money in South African rand did Mei-Ling get?

Answer: ________________________

% students by country who answered correctly

Liechtenstein 95

Macao- China 93

Finland 90

France 89

Hong Kong-China 89

Sweden 89

Austria 87

Switzerland 87

Belgium 87

Czech Republic 87

Canada 86

Slovak Republic 86

Iceland 86

Denmark 85

Russian Federation 85Luxembourg 85

Netherlands 85

Hungary 84

Ireland 83

Germany 83Australia 81

Korea 81

Latvia 80

New Zealand 80OECD average 80

Japan 79

Spain 79

Serbia 79

Norway 77

Poland 77

Portugal 74

United Kingdom 74

Greece 73

Italy 71

Uruguay 71

Mexico 60

Thailand 60

Turkey 60

Indonesia 59

Tunisia 55

United States 54

Brazil 37

12600 zAR

Answering this question correctly corresponds to a difficulty of 406 score points on the PISA mathematics scale. Across countries, 80% of students answered correctly. To answer the question correctly students have to draw on skills from the reproduction competency cluster.

Figure 1 shows changing levels of Lake Chad, in Saharan North Africa. Lake

Chad disappeared completely in about 20,000BC, during the last Ice Age. In

about 11,000 BC it reappeared. Today, its level is about the same as it was in

AD 1000.

Figure 2

aurochs

giraffe

buffalo

Saharan rock art and changing patterns of wildlife

rhinoceros

hippopotamus

elephant

ostrich

gazelle

cattle

dog

horse

camel

8000 BC 7000 BC 6000 BC 5000 BC 4000 BC 3000 BC 2000 BC 1000 BC 0 AD 1000

Question: Figure 2 is based on the assumption that:

A. the animals in the rock art were present in the area at the time they were drawn.

B. the artists who drew the animals were highly skilled.

C. the artists who drew the animals were able to travel widely.

D. there was no attempt to domesticate the animals which were depicted in the rock art.

Figure 2 shows Saharan rock art (ancient drawings or paintings found on

the walls of caves) and changing patterns of wildlife

Answering this question correctly corresponds to a difficulty of 397 score points on the PISA reading scale. Across countries, 77% of students answered correctly. To do so, they interpreted the text correctly.

• % students by country who answered correctly

Finland 87

Hungary 85

Korea 85

Netherlands 84

Austria 83

Sweden 82

Spain 82

France 82

Belgium 81

Czech Republic 80

Denmark 80

Canada 80

Germany 80

Australia 80

Liechtenstein 79

Japan 79

Italy 79

Switzerland 78

New Zealand 78

Portugal 78

OECD average 77

United Kingdom 76

Poland 73

Ireland 72

Luxembourg 72

Norway 72

United States 71

Iceland 70

Greece 68

Latvia 68

Brazil 63

Russian Federation 59

Mexico 49

1212 Methods

Some methodological considerations to estimate the impact of improved basic skills

on long-term economic growth

• The projections assume that higher educational achievement allows a country to keep on growing at a higher rate in the long run– Education increases the innovative capacity of the economy

through developing new ideas and new technologies

– A given level of education can lead to a continuing stream of new ideas, thus making it possible for education to affect growth even when no new education is added to the economy .

Underlying growth model

• An aggregate production function where the output of the macro economy is a direct function of capital and labour– The human capital component of growth comes through

accumulation of more education that implies the economy moves from one steady state level to another; once at the new level, education exerts no further influence on growth .

Alternative growth models

• Improvements will occur steadily – from today’s performance up to reaching

the post-2015 goals in 2030

• It will take another 40 years until the more skilled workers replace the existing workforce

• The growth rate is calculated each year into the future based on the average skill of workers

• Future gains in GDP are discounted to the present with a 3% discount rate – (so that the projections are directly comparable

to current levels of GDP).

Assumptions

• Annual improvement by 1.67 PISA points per year (=25 points by 2030) and full enrolment

• Present value of added GDP would be 340% of the country’s current GDP over the next 80 years (or on average 7.3% higher GDP each year)

• By 2095, GDP would be 30% higher than with current skill levels– This is equivalent to an annual growth rate that is 0.5

percentage points higher than at current skill levels.

18 An example Country Improvement/y

Montenegro 1.7

Chile 1.9

Serbia 2.2

Poland 2.6

Italy 2.7

Portugal 2.8

Mexico 3.1

Tunisia 3.1

Turkey 3.2

Dubai (UAE) 3.7

Singapore 3.8

Brazil 4.1

Bulgaria 4.2

Shanghai-China 4.2

Israel 4.2

Romania 4.9

Albania 5.6

U.A.E. * 5.9

Malaysia 8.1

Kazakhstan 9

Qatar 9.2

19 Skills and growth

• Couldn’t higher growth cause higher achievement?– Correlation between education spending and student performance is

weak, so it is unlikely that the relationship comes from growth induced resources lifting student achievement

– For a subset of countries, the period of testing has been separated from the subsequent period of observed economic impacts, but the impact was even bigger

• Couldn’t other factors besides cognitive skills be responsible for countries’ growth?– In an extensive investigation of alternative model specifications,

different measures of cognitive skills, various groupings of countries (including some that eliminate regional differences), and specific subperiods of economic growth have been employed but the results show high consistency in the alternative estimates, in both quantitative impacts and statistical significance

– Neither do measures of geographical location, political stability, capital stock and population growth significantly affect the estimated impact of cognitive skills

20 Causality in brief

• How do we know international differences in test scores reflect school policies and not things like health and nutrition differences in the population or cultural differences?– This concern has been addressed by focusing attention just on

the variations in achievement that arise directly from institutional characteristics of each country’s school system (exit examinations, autonomy, relative teacher salaries and private schooling). When the analysis is limited in this way, the estimation of the growth relationship yields essentially the same results

• Do changes in test scores over time relate to changes in growth rates?– For 12 OECD countries, the magnitude of trends in education

performance can be related to the magnitude of trends in growth rates over time. This investigation provides more evidence of the causal influence of cognitive skills.


• What if achievement is simply a reflection of other aspects of the economy and not the driving force in growth? – One way to test this is to consider the implications of differences in

measured skills within a single economy. This was done by comparing immigrants to the United states who have been educated in their home countries with immigrants educated just in the United states.

– This comparison finds that the cognitive skills seen in the immigrant’s home country lead to higher incomes, but only if the immigrant was in fact educated in the home country. Immigrants from the same home country who are schooled in the United states see no economic return to home-country test scores – a finding that pinpoints the value of better schools


2323 The high cost of low educational performance

What if the World delivered on the post-2015 development goals?

The economic value of getting every 15-year-old to complete at least PISA Level 1

The economic value of improvement

0%

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300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

1000%

1100%

1200%

1300%

1400%

Baseline skills Full enrolment without

increase in quality

Baseline skills and full

enrolment

Lower middle income countries

Upper middle income countries

High income non-OECD

High income OECD

Value of improvement in terms of current GDP

over working life of today’s 15-year-olds

The increase in GDP among high income countries would still exceed total current spending on schooling

25 The economic value of improvement

Low mathematics performanceIran*

Costa Rica

UruguayMontenegro

Bahrain*

Georgia*Brazil JordanArgentina Albania

Tunisia MacedoniaSaudi Arabia* Colombia

QatarIndonesiaBotswana*

Peru Oman*

Morocco*

Honduras*

South Africa*

Ghana*

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

* Substituted from TIMSS

3880% GDP

4,526 bn$

1427% GDP

2,459 bn$

751% GDP

23,841 bn$

Singapore


Korea









CroatiaIsrael

GreeceSerbiaTurkey

Romania


ChileMalaysia

Mexico



86% GDP

402 bn$

153% GDP

27,929 bn$

551% GDP

12,448 bn$

375% GDP

2,415 bn$

143% GDP

3,650 bn$

304% GDP

1,667 bn$

38% GDP

209 bn$

Socially equitable

distribution of learning

opportunities



Strong socio-economic

impact on student

performance

Singapore


Korea









CroatiaIsrael

GreeceSerbiaTurkey

Romania


ChileMalaysia

Mexico

AustraliaAustria

Belgium Canada

Chile

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

IcelandIreland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

Singapore


Macao-China

Liechtenstein

Viet Nam

Latvia

Russian Fed.Lithuania

Croatia

SerbiaRomania

BulgariaUnited Arab

EmiratesKazakhstan

Thailand

Malaysia

02468101214161820222426

Socially equitable


opportunities


impact on student

performance

AustraliaAustria

Belgium Canada

Chile

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

IcelandIreland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Chile

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

2012

Socially equitable


opportunities


impact on student

performance

AustraliaAustria

Belgium Canada

Chile

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

IcelandIreland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Chile

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

-10

-5

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5

10

15

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Sw

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Germ

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Gre

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Jap

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Den

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Aus

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Cze

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epu

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Hun

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Nor

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Icela

nd

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Mexic

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Fin

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Sw

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Uni

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Pola

nd

Slo

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Repu

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Salary as % of GDP/capita Instruction time 1/teaching time 1/class size

Contribution of various factors to upper secondary teacher

compensation costs, per student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2004)

Percentage points

Difference with OECD average

3333 Excellence and equity

Excellence and equity are compatible goals in the post-2015 agenda

• Basic skills for all or cultivating top achievers?– The impact of the basic-skills share does not vary

significantly with the initial level of development

– The impact of the top-performing share is significantly larger in countries that have more scope to catch up to the most productive countries (the process of economic convergence is accelerated in countries with larger shares of high-performing students).

Excellence and equity

AustraliaAustria

Belgium Canada

Chile

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

IcelandIreland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Chile

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

AustraliaAustria

Belgium Canada

Chile

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

IcelandIreland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Chile

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

Singapore

Shanghai

Singapore

2003 - 2012

Chile 2003

Turkey 2003

Change in performance between PISA 2003 and 2012

Indonesia

Thailand

Russian Fed.

United States

Latvia

Spain

NorwayLuxembourg

Ireland

Austria

SwitzerlandJapan

Liechtenstein

Korea

Brazil

Tunisia

Mexico

Uruguay

Turkey

Greece

Italy

Portugal

Hungary

Poland

Slovak Republic

OECD average

Germany

Sweden

France

Denmark

Iceland

Czech Republic

New ZealandAustralia

Macao-China

Belgium

Canada

Netherlands

Finland

Hong Kong-China

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

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3

4

5

350 400 450 500 550 600

Ave

rag

e a

nn

ua

l m

ath

em

ati

cs

sc

ore

ch

an

ge

Average mathematics performance in PISA 2003

Imp

rovin

g p

erfo

rma

nc

eD

ete

riora

ting

pe

rform

an

ce

PISA 2003 performance below the OECD averagePISA 2003 performance

above the OECD average

Fig I.2.1837

B

3838 Skills and inclusive growth

Achieving basic skills would make economic growth more inclusive

• Achieving universal basic skills will make economic growth more inclusive– The increase in average earnings from attaining universal basic skills amounts

to some 4.2% across the 28 countries with universal enrolment in secondary schools.

– This increase is accompanied by a 5.2% average reduction in the achievement-induced part of the standard deviation of earnings

• Universal basic skills will also expand the size of the economy, and thus differs from simple tax and redistribution schemes that might change income distribution but would not add to societal output– Policies to improve knowledge capital will also promote inclusion and a more

equitable income distribution

Inclusive growth

4040 Why poverty need not be destiny

It’s not just about poor kids in poor neighborhoods but about many kids in many neighborhoods

The country where students go to class matters more than what social class students come from

4141PISA mathematics performance

by decile of social background

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

575

600

625

650

675

Mexic

oChile

Gre

ece

Norw

ay

Sw

eden

Icela

nd

Isra

el

Italy

United S

tate

sSpain

Denm

ark

Luxem

bourg

Aust

ralia

Irela

nd

United K

ingdom

Hungary

Canada

Fin

land

Aust

ria

Turk

ey

Lie

chte

nst

ein

Cze

ch R

epublic

Est

onia

Port

ugal

Slo

venia

Slo

vak R

epublic

New

Zeala

nd

Germ

any

Neth

erlands

Fra

nce

Sw

itze

rland

Pola

nd

Belg

ium

Japan

Maca

o-C

hin

aH

ong K

ong-C

hin

aKore

aSin

gapore

Chin

ese

Taip

ei

Shanghai-Chin

a

Source: PISA 2012

Australia

Brazil

Chile

Estonia

Spain

France

Iceland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Bulgaria

Malaysia

Mexico

NetherlandsNorway

Poland

Portugal

RomaniaSerbia

Singapore

Slovak Republic

Latvia

United States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

% s

tudents

from

dis

advanta

ged b

ack

gro

unds

the p

erc

enta

ge o

f st

udents

with a

valu

e o

f ESCS low

er

than -

1

% principals who reported that more than 30% of their studentsare from socioeconomically disadvantaged homes

Social background – principal and students

Size of bullet represents

impact of social background

on student performance

4343 Educational improvement

Making sure skills are put to good use

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

Reading at

work

Writing at

work

Numeracy at

work

ICT at work Problem

solving at work

Average

United

States

Japan

Use of skills at work

Most frequent use = 4

Least frequent use = 0

Index

of use

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

GermanyIreland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Republic

Spain Sweden

United States

England/N. Ireland (UK)

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3

(log)

Labour

pro

duct

ivity

Use of reading skills at work

45Labour productivity

and the use of reading skills at work

• Obtaining the projected gains will require a variety of structural changes in each country’s economy so that the new, more skilled workers can be productively absorbed into the labour force. These changes are assumed to be similar to the productivity improvements seen over past half century

46 Assumptions

0.940.89

2.55

1.84

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Openness to international trade Protection against expropriation risk

Closed

economy

Open

economy

Least

protection

Most

protection

1.61*

0.95

Estimated effect of

test scores on growth

4848L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

Can we make it happen?It’s everybody’s business

Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

4949L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers




Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

Commitment to universal achievement

Gateways, instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentive structures and accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning systemCoherence

5050L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers




Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins







A commitment to education and the belief that competencies can be learned and therefore all children can achieve Ambitious educational standards and personalization

as the approach to heterogeneity in the student body…

… as opposed to a belief that students have different destinations to be met with different expectations, and selection/stratification as the approach to heterogeneity

Clear articulation who is responsible for ensuring student success and to whom

United States

Poland

Hong Kong-China

Brazil

New Zealand

Greece

Uruguay

United Kingdom

EstoniaFinland

Albania

Croatia

Latvia

Slovak RepublicLuxembourg

Germany

Lithuania

Austria

Czech Republic

Chinese Taipei

France

Thailand

Japan

Turkey Sweden

HungaryAustralia

Israel

Canada

IrelandBulgaria

Jordan

Chile

Macao-China

U.A.E.

Belgium

Netherlands

Spain

Argentina

Indonesia

Denmark

Kazakhstan

Peru

Costa Rica

Switzerland

Montenegro

Tunisia

Iceland

Slovenia

Qatar

Singapore

Portugal

Norway

Colombia

Malaysia

Mexico

Liechtenstein

Korea

Serbia

Russian Fed.

Romania

Viet Nam

Italy

Shanghai-China

R² = 0.36

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

-0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20

Me

an

ma

the

ma

tic

s p

erf

orm

an

ce

Mean index of mathematics self-efficacy

OE

CD

ave

rag

e

Countries where students have stronger beliefs

in their abilities perform better in mathematics51 Fig III.4.5

5555L

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hig

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orm

ers




Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins







Clear ambitious goals that are shared across the system and aligned with high stakes gateways and instructional systems

Well established delivery chain through which curricular goals translate into instructional systems, instructional practices and student learning (intended, implemented and achieved)

High level of metacognitive content of instruction …

5656L

essons f

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hig

h p

erf

orm

ers




Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins







Capacity at the point of delivery

Attracting, developing and retaining high quality teachers and school leaders and a work organisation in which they can use their potential

Instructional leadership and human resource management in schools

Keeping teaching an attractive profession

System-wide career development …

Developing Teaching

as a profession

Recruit top candidates into the profession

Support teachers in continued

development of practice

Retain and recognise effective teachers –path for growth

Improve the societal

view of teaching as

a profession

Mean mathematics performance, by school location, after acc

ounting for socio-economic status5757 Capacity at the point of delivery

Mean mathematics performance, by school location,

after accounting for socio-economic statusFig II.3.35858 Teachers' perceptions of the value of teaching

Percentage of lower secondary teachers who "agree" or "strongly agree" that teaching profession is a valued profession

in society

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mala

ysia

Sin

gapore

Kore

a

Abu D

habi (U

AE)

Finla

nd

Mexi

co

Alb

erta (Canada)

Flanders

(Belg

ium

)

Neth

erlands

Aust

ralia

Engla

nd (UK)

Rom

ania

Isra

el

United S

tate

s

Chile

Ave

rage

Norw

ay

Japan

Latv

ia

Serb

ia

Bulg

aria

Denm

ark

Pola

nd

Icela

nd

Est

onia

Bra

zil

Italy

Cze

ch R

epublic

Portugal

Cro

atia

Spain

Sw

eden

France

Slo

vak R

epublic

Perc

enta

ge o

f te

ach

ers

Above-average performers in PISA


after accounting for socio-economic statusFig II.3.35959

Countries where teachers believe their profession is valued

show higher levels of student achievement

Relationship between lower secondary teachers' views on the value of their profession in society and the country’s

share of top mathematics performers in PISA 2012

Australia

Brazil

Bulgaria

Chile

Croatia

Czech Republic

Denmark

EstoniaFinland

France

IcelandIsrael

Italy

Japan

Korea

Latvia

Mexico

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Serbia

Singapore

Slovak Republic

SpainSweden

Alberta (Canada)

England (UK)

Flanders (Belgium)

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Share

of

math

em

atics

top p

erf

orm

ers

Percentage of teachers who agree that teaching is valued in society

R2 = 0.24 r= 0.49

Teacher skills and graduate skills (numeracy)

230 250 270 290 310 330 350

Italy

Poland

Estonia

United States

Canada

Ireland

Korea

England (UK)


Denmark

Northern Ireland (UK)

Slovak Republic

France

Australia

Sweden

Czech Republic

Austria

Netherlands

Norway

Germany

Flanders (Belgium)

Finland

Japan

Middle half of the numeracy

skill distribution of graduates

(16-65 years)

PIAAC test scores (numeracy)

Teacher skills and graduate skills (numeracy)

230 250 270 290 310 330 350

Italy

Poland

Estonia

United States

Canada

Ireland

Korea

England (UK)


Denmark

Northern Ireland (UK)

Slovak Republic

France

Australia

Sweden

Czech Republic

Austria

Netherlands

Norway

Germany

Flanders (Belgium)

Finland

Japan

Middle half of the numeracy

skill distribution of graduates

(16-65 years)

Numeracy skills of teachers

PIAAC test scores (numeracy)


after accounting for socio-economic statusFig II.3.36262 Teachers Self-Efficacy and Professional Collaboration

11.40

11.60

11.80

12.00

12.20

12.40

12.60

12.80

13.00

13.20

13.40

Never

Once

a y

ear

or

less

2-4

tim

es

a y

ear

5-1

0 t

imes

a y

ear

1-3

tim

es

a m

onth

Once

a w

eek o

r m

ore

Teach

er

self-e

ffic

acy

(le

vel)

Teach jointly as a

team in the same

class

Observe other

teachers’ classes and

provide feedback

Engage in joint

activities across

different classes

Take part in

collaborative

professional learning

6565L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

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orm

ers




Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins







Incentives, accountability, knowledge management

Aligned incentive structures

For students How gateways affect the strength, direction, clarity and nature of the

incentives operating on students at each stage of their education

Degree to which students have incentives to take tough courses and study hard

Opportunity costs for staying in school and performing well

For teachers Make innovations in pedagogy and/or organisation

Improve their own performance and the performance of their colleagues

Pursue professional development opportunities that lead to stronger pedagogical practices

A balance between vertical and lateral accountability

Effective instruments to manage and share knowledge and spread innovation – communication within the system and with stakeholders around it

A capable centre with authority and legitimacy to act

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essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

66 Aligning autonomy with accountability

6767L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

67

67

Hong Kong-China

Brazil

Uruguay

Albania

Croatia

Latvia

Lithuania

Chinese Taipei

ThailandBulgaria

Jordan

Macao-China

UAE Argentina

Indonesia

Kazakhstan

Peru

Costa Rica

Tunisia

Qatar

Singapore

Colombia

Malaysia

Serbia

Romania

Viet Nam

Shanghai-China

USA

Poland

New Zealand

Greece

UK

Estonia

Finland

Slovak Rep.

Luxembourg

GermanyAustria

Czech Rep.

France

Japan

Turkey

Sweden

HungaryAustralia

Israel

Canada

Chile

Belgium

NetherlandsSpain

Denmark

Switzerland

Iceland

Slovenia

Portugal

Norway

Korea

Italy

R² = 0.13

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Ma

the

ma

tic

s p

erf

orm

an

ce

(sc

ore

po

ints

)

Index of school responsibility for curriculum and assessment (index points)

Countries that grant schools autonomy over curricula and assessments tend to perform better in mathematics

Source: PISA 2012

No shared mathpolicy

Shared math policy455

460

465

470

475

480

485

Less school autonomy

More school autonomy

Schools with more autonomy perform better than schools with

less autonomy in systems with standardised math policies

Score points

School autonomy for curriculum and assessment

x system's extent of implementing a standardised math policy (e.g. curriculum and

instructional materials)

Fig IV.1.16

Schools with more autonomy perform better than schools with

less autonomy in systems with more collaboration

Teachers don't participate inmanagement

Teachers participate inmanagement455

460

465

470

475

480

485

Less school autonomy

More school autonomy

Score points

School autonomy for resource allocation x System's level of teachers

participating in school management

Across all participating countries and economies

Fig IV.1.17

0 20 40 60 80 100

Written specification of the school's curriculum andeducational goals

Written specification of student-performance standards

Systematic recording of data, including teacher andstudent attendance and graduation rates, test results…

Internal evaluation/self-evaluation

External evaluation

Written feedback from students (e.g. regarding lessons,teachers or resources)

Teacher mentoring

Regular consultation with one or more experts over aperiod of at least six months with the aim of improving…

Implementation of a standardised policy for mathematics

%

Percentage of students in schools whose principal reported that their schools have the following for quality assurance and improvement:

Singapore OECD average

Quality assurance and school improvement Fig IV.4.1471

7272L

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hig

h p

erf

orm

ers




Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins







Investing resources where they can make mostof a difference

Alignment of resources with key challenges (e.g. attracting the most talented teachers to the most challenging classrooms)

Effective spending choices that prioritise high quality teachers over smaller classes

7474 Adequate resources to address disadvantage

Disadvantaged schools reported

more teacher shortage

Advantaged schools reported

more teacher shortage

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

Ko

rea

Esto

nia

Isra

el

La

tvia

Slo

ve

nia

Ita

lyP

ola

nd

Sin

gap

ore

Arg

en

tin

aN

eth

erl

an

ds

Po

rtu

ga

lC

olo

mb

iaF

ran

ce

Fin

lan

dT

un

isia

Ma

cao

-Ch

ina

Sp

ain

Gre

ec

eS

wit

zerl

an

dN

orw

ay

Ru

ss

ian

Fe

d.

Jap

an

Au

str

iaM

on

ten

eg

roC

roati

aC

an

ad

aO

EC

D a

ve

rag

eG

erm

an

yD

en

mark

Hu

ng

ary

Un

ite

d K

ing

do

mL

ux

em

bo

urg

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

-Ch

ina

Belg

ium

Ice

lan

dV

iet

Na

mIr

ela

nd

Un

ite

d S

tate

sC

hil

eC

zech

Rep

ub

lic

Serb

iaT

urk

ey

Me

xic

oIn

do

nesia

Uru

gu

ay

Sh

an

gh

ai-

Ch

ina

Slo

va

k R

ep

ub

lic

Sw

ed

en

Bra

zil

Ne

w Z

ea

lan

dA

us

tralia

Ch

ine

se

Ta

ipe

i

Me

an

in

de

x d

iffe

ren

ce

Difference between socio-economically disadvantaged and socio-economically advantaged schools

A shortage of qualified teachers is more of concernin disadvantaged schools

7575L

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rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers




Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins







Coherence of policies and practices

Alignment of policies across all aspects of the system

Coherence of policies over sustained periods of time

Consistency of implementation

Fidelity of implementation (without excessive control)

7676L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers




Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins







7777L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

Average school systems High performers in PISA

Some students learn at high levels

All students learnat high levels

Uniformity Embracing diversity

Curriculum-centred Learner-centred

Learning a place Learning an activity

Prescription Informed profession

7878L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers Some students learn at high levels All students need to learn at high levels

Student inclusion

Routine cognitive skills Conceptual understanding, complex ways of thinking, ways of working

Curriculum, instruction and assessment

Standardisation and compliance High-level professional knowledge workers

Teacher quality

‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegial

Work organisation

Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholders

Accountability

What it all means

The old bureaucratic system The modern enabling system

7979L

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79

79 Thank you

Find out more about this report at

– http://www.oecd.org/edu/universal-basic-skills-9789264234833-en.htm

– #UniversalBasicSkills

Email: [email protected]

Twitter: SchleicherEDU

and remember:

Without data, you are just another person with an opinion

http://www.oecd.org/edu/universal-basic-skills-9789264234833-en.htm