weekly report hungary - otp bank...2014/08/27 · weekly report – hungary 10. 2 eur/huf sticks to...

Treasury Sales Team Edit Tarsoly Kovácsné +36 1 288 7541 [email protected] Márton Meichl +36 1 288 7543 [email protected] János Mladoniczki +36 1 288 7551 [email protected] Attila Torma +36 1 288 7544 [email protected] Szilvia Lovas +36 1 288 7545 [email protected] Ákos Fekete +36 1 288 7553 [email protected] Frigyes Soós +36 1 288 7571 [email protected] Ádám Turai +36 1 288 7546 [email protected] Gábor Pozsgai +36 1 288 7554 [email protected] Attila Keresztyén +36 1 288 7552 [email protected] Zsombor Zölde +36 1 288 7572 [email protected]

Weekly Report

Hungary

27 August 2014

mailto:[email protected]









WEEKLY REPORT – HUNGARY

10.

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EUR/HUF sticks to elevated level

Macro: employment seems to have slightly decreased since the end of winter (pp. 3-4)

Hungary’s statistical office KSH published the May-July labour market data, which marks only a modest drop in unemployment rate, compared to the April-June period. As the main publication is seasonally unadjusted, the current decline is a really small step towards the favourable situation, taking into account the seasonal patterns. The second release of June retail sales statistics posted some upward revision in annual terms (the months before June are not affected), i.e. the headline index changed from +1.3% to 1.6% (in comparable terms). However, the big picture has not changed: after the parliamentary election, we can see some drop in retail sales.

FX markets: EUR/HUF moved mostly in a very tight range in August (pp. 5-6)

After depreciating considerably when the NBH declared the end of easing cycle on July 23, and switched back the two-week central bank bill into deposit on August 1, and wide-range pessimism ruled the world owing to geopolitical tensions, the HUF remained quite stable over the past two and a half weeks, and followed a very tight-range pattern (between 311.5 and 314.5) against the EUR. We expect the EUR/HUF to stick to its current levels on average, and still think that there will be no cause for further depreciation and (even despite the latest, encouraging economic developments) see no space for any appreciation over the medium term. We maintain our 315 EUR/HUF forecast for the end of this year, as well as for the next one.

Fixed income markets: mixed movements on the secondary market (pp. 7-9)

Market sentiment remained supportive, but benchmark yields moved in different directions last week. Among the short-term yields, only the 12M reference yield could drop by six bps. The two others increased by 3-9 bps. Nevertheless, long-term yields fell intensely. Reference yields sank by 16-22 bps. The uncertainty associated with Ukraine has not vanished yet but it seems that it has no tangible effect on Hungarian benchmark yields. The uncertainties about the Fed’s and the ECB’s future paths still necessitate caution. In her last week’s speech, the Fed’s chair advocated preserving the existing loose monetary policy, thus giving some relief to emerging markets.

Money markets: no surprise, base rate remained at record low (pp.

10-11)

On Tuesday 26 August, the National Bank of Hungary kept the base rate at a record low of 2.10%. The decision was in line with wide expectations as a month earlier NBH governor Mr Matolcsy had indicated the end of the easing cycle and the maintaining of

accommodative monetary policy for a long time. Unsurprisingly, the current press

release contains neither easing nor tightening bias. We maintain our projection for flat base rate path at least until the end of next year, although we expect mounting pressure on the NBH to hike the benchmark rate after the Fed launches its tightening cycle, probably at the end of next spring.

Chief Economist

Gergely Tardos +36 1 374 7273 [email protected]

Macro Analysts

Gábor Dunai +36 1 374 7272 [email protected]

Győző Eppich +36 1 374 7274 [email protected] Szilárd Kondora +36 1 374 7275 [email protected] Bálint Szaniszló +36 1 374 7271 [email protected] Mihaela Neagu +4021 307 58 64 [email protected] Rodion Lomivorotov +7 495 783 5400 (2761) [email protected]

Sector Analysts

Orsolya Rátkai +36 1 374 7270 [email protected] Piroska Szabó +36 1 374 7276 [email protected]

Technical Analyst

András Salamon +36 1 374 7225 [email protected]




10.

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Macroeconomics: employment seems to have slightly decreased since the end of winter

Source: Reuters

Hungary’s statistical office KSH published the May-July

labour market data, which marks only a modest drop in

unemployment rate, compared to the April-June period. As

the main publication is seasonally unadjusted, the current

decline is a really small step towards the favourable

situation, taking into account the seasonal patterns.

Indeed, our seasonally adjusted monthly data show that the

number of both employed and unemployed people

decreased in July. Furthermore, the number of employed

people has been on a slight downward trend since this

February. As a result, the number of active people also

deteriorated a bit recently.

The wage and employment statistics, published last Friday

by KSH, underline this slightly unfavourable evolution by

showing downward revision in the number of people

employed under public work schemes. The monthly average

of the revision was -25,600 people between 2013 November

and 2014 April, and the revision seems to be a normal level

shift. In June, the schemes employed 137,700 people

altogether, which practically equals the 132,700 number a

year earlier.

Please read our more comprehensive discussion of the

labour market in the latest quarterly report, published early

July.

The second release of June retail sales statistics posted

some upward revision in annual terms (the months before

June are not affected), i.e. the headline index changed from

+1.3% to 1.6% (in comparable terms). However, the big

picture has not changed: after the parliamentary election,

some drop is seen in retail sales.

PERIOD INDICATOR FACT OTP CONSENSUS PRIOR REVISION

22 Aug Jun Gross wages (yoy, %) 3.7 - - 4.9

26 Aug Aug Rate decision (%) 2.1 - - 2.1

27 Aug Jul Unemployment rate (3M, %) 7.9 - - 8.0

27 Aug Jun Retail sales (second release, yoy, %) 1.6 - - 2.4

28 Aug Jul Producer prices (yoy, %) - - -0.6

Number of employed, unemployed, and active people (monthly, ths, SA)

Sources: HCSO, OTP Research

Unemployment rate (monthly, %, SA)


Retail sales (2010 monthly average = 100, SA)


https://www.otpbank.hu/static/elemzesikozpont/other/elemzesek/2099_LabourMarket_Report_20140703.pdf

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10. Medium-term macroeconomic forecast

Main macroeconomic indicators

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F

Gross domestic product 0,9% -6,8% 1,1% 1,6% -1,7% 1,1% 3,1% 2,0%

Household consumption -0,2% -5,6% -3,6% 0,3% -1,7% -0,1% 2,0% 1,5%

Household consumption expenditure -0,6% -6,8% -3,0% 0,3% -1,7% 0,2% 2,0% 2,0%

Government consumption -0,2% 2,6% 4,7% -0,1% 0,1% 4,3% 2,0% -0,4%

Gross fixed capital formation 2,9% -11,1% -8,5% -5,9% -3,7% 5,9% 4,0% -3,3%

Export 5,7% -10,2% 11,3% 8,4% 1,7% 5,3% 7,5% 8,8%

Import 5,5% -14,8% 10,9% 6,4% -0,1% 5,3% 7,0% 7,6%

Budget balance (GDP%, ESA 95) -3,7% -4,6% -4,3% 4,3% -2,1% -2,4% -2,9% -2,3%

CA balance (EUR bn)* -7,7 -0,2 0,2 0,4 0,8 2,9 4,0 2,8

in % of GDP -7,3% -0,2% 0,2% 0,4% 0,8% 3,0% 4,0% 2,8%

Gross nominal wages** 6,9% 0,5% 1,3% 3,0% 5,8% 2,8% 4,8% 3,6%

Real gross wages 0,8% -3,6% -3,3% -0,9% 0,1% 1,1% 4,3% 1,1%

Disposable income*** 5,0% 0,7% 1,8% 6,4% 2,1% 2,4% 5,3% 3,7%

Real disposable income -1,0% -3,3% -2,9% 2,3% -3,4% 0,7% 4,8% 1,1%

Employment (y-o-y, %) -1,2% -2,5% 0,0% 0,8% 1,7% 1,6% 1,0% 0,3%

Unemployment rate (yearly avr) 7,8% 10,0% 11,2% 10,9% 10,9% 10,2% 9,3% 9,6%

Inflation (yearly avr) 6,1% 4,2% 4,9% 4,0% 5,7% 1,7% 0,5% 2,5%

Inflation (dec/dec) 3,5% 5,6% 4,7% 4,1% 5,0% 1,4% 2,0% 2,0%

Base rate (eop) 10,00% 6,25% 5,75% 7,00% 5,75% 3,00% 2,10% 2,10%

12M T-Bill (avr) 9,0% 8,6% 5,5% 6,17% 7,02% 4,11% 2,36% 1,99%

Real interest rate (avr, ex post) 2,8% 4,2% 0,7% 2,1% 1,3% 2,3% 1,9% -0,5%

EUR/HUF (avg) 251,5 280,6 275,3 279,3 289,3 297,0 309,8 314,8

EUR/HUF (eop) 264,8 270,8 278,8 311,1 291,3 296,9 308,0 315,0

Source: CSO, NBH, OTP Research

*: Official deficit of current account balance for year 2010 (excluding errors and omissions)

**: The following data were used in wage calculations: payroll adjusted for the 'whitening' of economy

and for the changed seasonality of bonuses (in the private sector) and accrual-based wage data (in the

public sector)

***: Disposable income derived from Financial Accounts

ForecastFact

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10.

FX markets: EUR/HUF moved mostly in a very tight range in August After depreciating considerably when the National Bank of Hungary declared

the end of the easing cycle on July 23, the NBH switched back the two-week

central bank bill into deposit on August 1, and widespread pessimism ruled

the world owing to geopolitical tensions, the HUF remained quite stable over

the past two and a half weeks, and followed a very tight-range pattern

against the EUR (between 311.5 and 314.5).

It is telling that, even though geopolitical tensions have eased since then as

did the selling pressure that arose from NBH’s regulatory changes, the HUF

could not get any impetus and remained close to the previously set, quite

depressed levels against all major and regional peers.

The tranquillity could be at least partly explained with the market mood in

August, so we think volatility may rise when the summer is over, even

without any game-changing information.

We expect the EUR/HUF to stick to its current levels on average, and still

think that there will be no cause for further depreciation and there is no

space for any appreciation (even despite the latest, encouraging economic

developments) in the medium term. We maintain our 315 EUR/HUF forecast

for the end of this year, as well as for the next one.

Source: Reuters

Major HUF FX rates (29.11.2013=100)

Sources: Reuters, OTP Research

Regional HUF FX rates (29.11.2013=100)


HUF vs. EM currencies (29.11.2013=100)


Value Weekly chg. (%) YTD chg. (%)

EURHUF 313,1 0,0 5,4

CHFHUF 259,1 0,3 6,9

USDHUF 237,3 1,0 9,9

JPYHUF 228,4 0,0 11,6

PLNHUF 74,83 0,0 4,9

RONHUF 71,06 0,8 6,9

CZKHUF 11,24 0,4 3,6

RUBHUF 6,58 1,3 0,2

RSDHUF 2,66 -0,2 2,6

HRKHUF 41,03 -0,3 5,4

Value Weekly chg. YTD chg.

EURHUF 1W 6,65 -0,9 1,0

EURHUF 1M 7,05 -0,3 0,4

EURHUF 3M 7,28 -0,1 0,1

MID VOLATILITY

FX BID

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

2013.11 2013.12 2014.01 2014.02 2014.03 2014.04 2014.05 2014.06 2014.07 2014.08

EURHUF

USDHUF

CHFHUF

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

2013.11 2013.12 2014.01 2014.02 2014.03 2014.04 2014.05 2014.06 2014.07 2014.08

PLNHUF

CZKHUF

RONHUF

85,0

87,5

90,0

92,5

95,0

97,5

100,0

102,5

105,0

85,0

87,5

90,0

92,5

95,0

97,5

100,0

102,5

105,0

2013.11 2013.12 2014.01 2014.02 2014.03 2014.04 2014.05 2014.06 2014.07 2014.08

RUBHUF

ZARHUF

TRYHUF

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10.

Technical analysis of the EUR/HUF daily chart

The cross has been stuck in the 312-314 range in the daily

chart for almost three weeks now. Looking at the 60-minute

chart, the exact boundaries of the bracket are found at

311.75 and 314.50. Note that this range could morph into a

declining triangle.

A directional move could follow in the direction of the

breakout. The width of the bracket is around two points, thus

a two-point move could come in the direction of the break.

The first support is around 310.50, while the first resistance

is at 315.50.

Technical analysis: daily chart of the EUR/HUF


Daily EURHUF=R 2014.05.02. - 2014.09.03. (GMT)

SMA; 313,35; SMA; 306,32; Cndl; 312,72; SMA; 306,32; SMA; 310,51; BBand; 315,22; 313,35; 311,47

Price

HUF

Auto

301,5

302

302,5

303

303,5

304

304,5

305

305,5

306

306,5

307

307,5

308

308,5

309

309,5

310

310,5

311

311,5

312

312,5

313

313,5

314

314,5

315

315,5

316

316,5

317

317,5

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01

2014 május 2014 június 2014 július 2014 augusztus

Short-term trend up

Long-term trend up

Secondary resistance 315,50

Primary resistance 314,50

Primary support 311,75

Secondary support 310,50

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10.

Fixed income: mixed moves on the secondary market

Market sentiment remained supportive, but benchmark yields moved in

different directions last week. Among short-term yields, only the 12M

reference yield could drop, by six basis points. The two others increased by

3-9 bps. Nevertheless, long-term yields fell intensely. Reference yields sank

by 16-22 bps.

Yield curve over the past weeks


The uncertainty associated with Ukraine has not vanished yet but it does not

seem to have tangible effect on Hungarian benchmark yields. The

uncertainties about the Fed’s and the ECB’s future paths still necessitate

caution. In her speech last week, the Fed’s chair advocated preserving the

existing loose monetary policy, thus giving some relief to emerging markets.

The ECB’s president Mario Draghi expressed hope that the stimulus

measures announced in June help the eurozone’s economy. However, the

central banker underlined the ECB’s readiness to take further steps. These

statements could help the further decline of Hungarian benchmark yields.

FLY spread (bps)


Interestingly, the decline in short-term yields still has not come to a halt,

despite the fact that the NBH terminated the rate cut cycle a long time ago.

Source: Reuters

ÁKK benchmark yields (%)


Slope of the yield curve (bps)


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10.

Auction results

The demand at last week’s 3M auction was weaker than one

week ago (bid-to-cover ratio was 1.72). The issuer has not

raised more funds than it originally planned to. The average

yield was 1.45%

Demand was weak at last Thursday’s government bond

auction: primary dealers placed only HUF 93.2 bn worth of

bids for the three segments. But ÁKK was able to sell above

target. Demand for the three-year tenor was very weak: the

bid-to-cover ratio was 0.8, so ÁKK lowered the issued

amount to HUF 15 bn. In the 5Y bond auction, the bid-to-

cover ratio was average, so ÁKK sold the originally offered

amount. The healthy demand for the 10Y tenor made ÁKK

accept more offers than it had initially planned. There was

weak demand in the afternoon’s non-competitive tenders,

where investors bought only from 5Y and 10Y maturities.

The average yield, however, decreased again compared to

the previous bond auction. The average yields for the 3Y

and 5Y and 10Y bonds were set at 3.15%, 3.44%, and

4.41% respectively, which are 48-60 bps below the average

yield at the previous tender two weeks ago.

There was healthier buying interest at this Tuesday’s 3M

auction than one week ago. The bid-to-cover ratio was 3.4,

so ÁKK accepted more offers than it had initially planned.

The average yield was 1.45%. It seems that the decline of

short-term yields has stopped because this week’s average

yield was the same as the last week’s yield.

Summary of last week’s auctions

Source: ÁKK, OTP Research

Summary of this week's auctions

Source: ÁKK, OTP Research

D141126 2018/B 2019/A 2025/B

offered amount (HUF bn) 40,0 20,0 20,0 13,0

total bids (HUF bn) 68,8 16,6 33,8 42,9

accepted amount (HUF bn) 40,0 15,0 20,0 19,5

maximum yield (%) 1,50 3,17 3,48 4,43

average yield (%) 1,45 3,15 3,44 4,41

minimum yield (%) 1,40 3,10 3,40 4,38

non-competitive tenders (HUF bn) - - 0,7 0,8

D141203 D150722 2017/C

offered amount (HUF bn) 40,0 40,0 20,0

total bids (HUF bn) 136,3

accepted amount (HUF bn) 50,0

maximum yield (%) 1,45

average yield (%) 1,45

minimum yield (%) 1,33

non-competitive tenders (HUF bn) -

Auctions data of 3M T-bill

Sources: ÁKK, OTP Research

Auctions data of 12M T-Bill


Auction data of bonds (HUF bn)


HGBs held by foreign investors (HUF 1000 bn, %, year)


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10.

HUF bn; *estimation, based on the latest available information, under the assumption of 310.9 EUR/HUF, 1.34 EURUSD, 102.5 USDJPY, 0.82

EURGBP and 1.22 EURCHF exchange rates **with KKJ


According to the Government Debt Management Agency’s HUF issuance plan, HUF 520 bn 3-month bills, HUF 240 bn 12-month bills, HUF 259.8 bn interest-bearing T-Bills (KKJ) and HUF 835 bn bond issuance are scheduled for September-November.

redemption* coupon* capital* coupon*

01.09.2014 M

02.09.2014 Tu 3M

03.09.2014 W T-Bills: 77.9; KKJ+FKJ: 33.6

04.09.2014 Th 3Y, 5Y, 10Y

05.09.2014 F

08.09.2014 M

09.09.2014 Tu 3M

10.09.2014 W T-Bills:71.1; KKJ+FKJ: 26.5

11.09.2014 Th 12M, 5Y floating

12.09.2014 F

15.09.2014 M

16.09.2014 Tu 3M

17.09.2014 W T-Bills:70.3; KKJ+FKJ: 20.2

18.09.2014 Th 3Y, 5Y, 10Y

19.09.2014 F

22.09.2014 M 2017/C: 5.6

23.09.2014 Tu 3M

24.09.2014 W T-Bills: 81.2; KKJ+FKJ: 22.9

25.09.2014 Th 12M

26.09.2014 F

29.09.2014 M REPHUN: 22.2; REPHUN: 11.1

30.09.2014 Tu 3M 2016/A: 0.1

01.10.2014 W T-Bills: 71.1; KKJ+FKJ: 22.6

02.10.2014 Th 3Y, 5Y, 10Y

03.10.2014 F

06.10.2014 M

07.10.2014 Tu 3M

08.10.2014 W T-Bills: 60.2; KKJ+FKJ: 15.9


10.10.2014 F

13.10.2014 M

14.10.2014 Tu 3M

15.10.2014 W T-Bills: 213.0; KKJ+FKJ: 15.9

16.10.2014 Th 3Y, 5Y, 10Y

17.10.2014 F

20.10.2014 M

21.10.2014 Tu 3M

22.10.2014 W T-Bills: 50.0; KKJ+FKJ: 15.7 2028/A: 10.2

23.10.2014 Th 12M

24.10.2014 F 2026/B: 2.0; 2026/C: 0.1

27.10.2014 M REPHUN: 0.6

28.10.2014 Tu 3M

29.10.2014 W T-Bills: 39.9; KKJ+FKJ: 15.6

30.10.2014 Th 3Y, 5Y, 10Y

31.10.2014 F

03.11.2014 M

04.11.2014 Tu 3M

05.11.2014 W T-Bills: 50.0; KKJ+FKJ: 17.6


07.11.2014 F EU: 621.8 EU: 20.2

10.11.2014 M

11.11.2014 Tu 3M

12.11.2014 W T-Bills: 50.0; KKJ+FKJ: 11.0 2020/A: 46.9

13.11.2014 Th 3Y, 5Y, 10Y

14.11.2014 F

17.11.2014 M

18.11.2014 Tu 3M

19.11.2014 W T-Bills: 50.0; KKJ+FKJ: 24.8

20.11.2014 Th 12M 2019/B: 3.6

21.11.2014 F

24.11.2014 M REPHUN: 13.4; 2017/A: 61.1; 2023/A: 48.0

25.11.2014 Tu 3M

26.11.2014 W T-Bills: 267.3; KKJ+FKJ: 17.6

27.11.2014 Th 3Y, 5Y, 10Y

28.11.2014 F 2015/L: 1.8

Sum 1854.8 1411.9 226.7 621.8 20.2

AuctionGovernment bonds Government loans

Date

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10.

Money markets: no surprise, base rate remained at record low

On Tuesday 26 August, the National Bank of Hungary kept the base rate at

a record low of 2.10%. The decision was in line with wide expectations as a

month earlier NBH governor Mr Matolcsy had indicated the end of the easing

cycle and the maintaining of accommodative monetary policy for a long time.

Neither the HUF nor money market rates have reacted to the decision.

Although EUR/HUF climbed into the 310-315 range late July/early August, it

spent the second half of August in a narrow range around 313 while FRAs

have not made any move. The market still prices in one 25 bps rate hike for

the end of the first quarter of 2015, but it is likely to be a more technical

feature than a sound fundamental expectation.

The most important MM instruments from 2013 (%)


So, unsurprisingly, the current press release contains neither easing nor

tightening bias. We maintain our projection for flat base rate path at least

until the end of next year, although we expect mounting pressure on the

NBH to hike the benchmark rate after the Fed launches its tightening cycle,

probably at the end of next spring. On the other hand, if the ECB embarks

on a broad-based asset purchase programme, that could ease the pressure.

Furthermore, as we see risk tilted to the downside about the NBH’s 2015

CPI forecast (i.e. 2.5%, yearly average), we think consumer prices’ evolution

will support the NBH’s loose policy stance.

For further insight, please see our Monetary Policy Commentary published

on August 26.

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

5,5

6

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

5,5

6

2013.01 2013.04 2013.07 2013.10 2014.01 2014.04 2014.07

BASE RATE

3M BUBOR

3X6FRA

9X12FRA

Source: Reuters

3-month long FRAs (from starting months)


Value (%) Weekly chg. (bp) YTD chg. (bp)

NBH 2 weeks 2,10 0 -90

Stock HUF bn 4 472 -506 -697

BUBOR 3M 2,14 -1 -85

BUBOR 6M 2,19 0 -76

FRA 3X6 2,20 2 -62

FRA 6X9 2,25 2 -62

FRA 9X12 2,32 -1 -68

FRA 6X12 2,31 0 -64

SWAP 2Y 2,38 -2 -82

SWAP 3Y 2,52 -3 -94

SWAP 5Y 2,89 -4 -120

SWAP 10Y 3,81 -6 -140

HUFONIA 1,08 -9 -98

Value (bp) Weekly chg. (bp) YTD chg. (bp)

2Y-5Y 51 -2 -38

5Y-10Y 92 -2 -20

FLY 2-5-10 41 0 18

ASSET 3Y -63 13 -4

ASSET 5Y -56 16 5

v EUR 2Y 212 3 -71

v EUR 5Y 238 2 -95

v EUR 10Y 267 3 -97

v PLN 2Y 12 5 27

v PLN 5Y 40 7 -33

v PLN 10Y 91 1 -74


USDHUF 1W 3,4 -3,3 -5,6

USDHUF 1M 24,5 -4,5 -14,0

USDHUF 3M 77,2 -5,6 -30,9

EURHUF 1W 6,4 -4,3 -5,8

EURHUF 1M 37,4 -6,2 -15,1

EURHUF 3M 118,2 -9,9 -29,9

Value (%) Weekly chg. (bp) YTD chg. (bp)

HUF 1X1 2,51 -8 -91

HUF 5X5 4,97 -10 -180

v EUR 1X1 2,24 -2 -50

v EUR 5X5 3,17 2 -45

v PLN 1X1 0,31 0 7

v PLN 5X5 1,56 -7 -35


EURHUF 1Y -48 4 33

EURHUF 3Y -47 1 51

EURHUF 5Y -45 1 55

MID SPREADS

MID SWAP POINTS

FWD IRS

MID EUR BASIS SWAP

MID INTEREST RATE DERIVATIVES

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2,10

2,20

2,30

2,40

2,50

2,60

2,70

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

weekly changes(Tuesday to Tuesday)

2014. 07. 29.

2014. 08. 05.

2014. 08. 12.

2014. 08. 19.

2014. 08. 26.

% bp

months

https://www.otpbank.hu/static/elemzesikozpont/other/elemzesek/2221_MPC_20140826.pdf

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10.

Sources: NBH, OTP Research

Dates of the meetings Dates of the minutes Inflation report OTP forecast Decision

24 January 2012 15 February 2012, 14:00 CET 7.50 7.00

28 February 2012 14 March 2012, 14:00 CET 7.00 7.00

27 March 2012 11 April 2012, 14:00 CET x 7.00 7.00

24 April 2012 9 May 2012, 14:00 CET 7.00 7.00

29 May 2012 13 June 2012, 14:00 CET 7.00 7.00

26 June 2012 11 July 2012, 14:00 CET x 7.00 7.00

24 July 2012 8 August 2012, 14:00 CET 7.00 7.00

28 August 2012 12 September 2012, 14:00 CET 7.00 6.75

25 September 2012 10 October 2012, 14:00 CET x 6.75 6.50

30 October 2012 14 November 2012, 14:00 CET 6.25 6.25

27 November 2012 5 December 2012, 14:00 CET 6.00 6.00

18 December 2012 16 January 2013, 14:00 CET x 5.75 5.75



26 March 2013 10 April 2013, 14:00 CET x 5.00 5.00

23 April 2013 15 May 2013, 14:00 CET 4.75 4.75

28 May 2013 12 June 2013, 14:00 CET 4.50 4.50

25 June 2013 10 July 2013, 14:00 CET x 4.25 4.25

23 July 2013 7 August 2013, 14:00 CET 4.00 4.00


24 September 2013 9 October 2013, 14:00 CET x 3.60 3.60

29 October 2013 13 November 2013, 14:00 CET 3.40 3.40

26 November 2013 4 December 2013, 14:00 CET 3.20 3.20

17 December 2013 8 January 2014, 14:00 CET x 3.00 3.00



25 March 2014 9 April 2014, 14:00 CET x 2.60 2.60

29 April 2014 14 May 2014, 14:00 CET 2.50 2.50

27 May 2014 11 June 2014, 14:00 CET 2.40 2.40

24 June 2014 9 July 2014, 14:00 CET x 2.30 2.30

22 July 2014 6 August 2014, 14:00 CET 2.20 2.10


23 September 2014 8 October 2014, 14:00 CET x 2.10

28 October 2014 12 November 2014, 14:00 CET 2.10

25 November 2014 10 December 2014, 14:00 CET 2.10

16 December 2014 To be published later x 2.10

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10.

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