when will we start making money? cfa society of nashville 2009 annual forecasting dinner january 30,...
TRANSCRIPT
When Will We Start Making Money?CFA Society of Nashville 2009 Annual Forecasting Dinner
January 30, 2009
Long-Term Interest Rates - 1900 to 2007
Bianco Research L.L.C.An Arbor Research & Trading Affiliated Company
Independent · Objective · Original———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 2
A Bad Decade
S&P 500 Total Return IndexTrailing 10 year rate of return
0.50%9/30/74
19.49%8/31/00
-4.95%8/31/39
21.43%5/31/59
-1.38%12/31/08
8.53%03/31/03
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%1
935
194
0
194
5
195
0
195
5
196
0
196
5
197
0
197
5
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
Co
mp
oun
d A
nn
ua
l Ra
te
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Co
mp
oun
d A
nn
ua
l Ra
te
Median = 11.02%
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 3
Epic Housing Collapse
Case-Shiller Nominal Home Price IndexAnnual Change
200412.09%
1900-9.79% 1914
-12.78%
1921-19.81%
1932-22.02%
2008-10.75%
194719.47%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%18
91
1897
1903
1909
1915
1921
1927
1933
1939
1945
1951
1957
1963
1969
1975
1981
1987
1993
1999
2005
Ann
ual C
hang
e
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ann
ual C
hang
e
1939 to 2007 Never A Yearly Loss!
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 4
Almost $1 Trillion In Losses
Q1 2009 Q4 2008 Q3 2008Losses Capital Losses Capital Losses Capital Losses Capital Losses Capital Losses Capital Losses Capital
Banks/Brokers 796.9 830.3 0.0 19.6 118.3 388.1 172.2 95.6 122.2 157.2 152.9 84.6 207.0 54.1Insurance Cos 145.1 94.1 0.0 1.7 1.0 52.6 35.5 1.6 13.4 27.4 42.1 3.2 52.0 7.6GSEs 114.5 36.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 38.3 0.0 29.0 7.1 24.6 0.0 22.6 15.5Wordwide 1056.5 960.8 0.0 21.3 119.3 454.5 246.0 97.2 164.6 191.7 219.6 87.8 281.6 77.2Source: Bloomberg
In Billions of DollarsTotal Q2 2008 Q1 2008
Worldwide Financial System Losses and Capital RaisedAs of January 27, 2009
Prior
Worldwide Financial System Losses And Capital Raised
281.6
59.6
216.9 219.6191.7
454.5
0.0
119.3
246.0
164.6
21.39.6
77.297.2
63.587.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Prior Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009
Bill
ions
of D
olla
rs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Bill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Red = LossesBlue = Capital Raised
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 5
Measuring The Size Of Securitization - 1
Total "Private" Credit Market Debt
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Pe
rce
nt o
f "P
riva
te"
Cre
dit
Ma
rke
t D
eb
t
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Pe
rce
nt o
f "P
riva
te"
Cre
dit
Ma
rke
t D
eb
t
Total Securitization(Agency & GSE-Backed
Mortgage Pools And ABS)
Total Banks Loans And Advances(Including Consumer Loans)
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 6
Measuring The Size Of Securitization - 2
The Rise And Fall Of Securitization
Q3 '0810.84%
Q2 '0727.78%
Q2 '01, 43.46%
Q3 '08, 2.91%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Pe
rce
nt o
f Sec
uriti
zatio
n of
"P
riva
te"
Cre
dit
Ma
rke
t D
eb
t
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Pe
rce
nt o
f Sec
uriti
zatio
n of
"P
riva
te"
Cre
dit
Ma
rke
t D
eb
t
Red Line = 4 quarter rolling averageGray Line = Quarterly plot
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 7
Measuring The Size Of Securitization - 3
Total ABS IssuanceMonthly Issuance ($Billions)
Dec-083.20
Jun-06$164.00
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170F
eb-9
6
Dec
-96
Oct
-97
Aug
-98
Jun-
99
Apr
-00
Feb
-01
Dec
-01
Oct
-02
Aug
-03
Jun-
04
Apr
-05
Feb
-06
Dec
-06
Oct
-07
Aug
-08
Jun-
09
Bill
ion
s o
f Do
llars
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
Bill
ion
s o
f Do
llars
1-Year Average
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 8
The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
From Our Newsclips/Daily Commentary
Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion•Louisiana Purchase: Cost: $15 million, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $217 billion•Race to the Moon: Cost: $36.4 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $237 billion•S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion•Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion•The New Deal: Cost: $32B (Est), Inflation Adjusted Cost: $500 billion (Est)•Gulf War II / War on Terror: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion•Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion•NASA (Cumulative): Cost: $416.7B, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $851.2 billion
Collectively, all the “big budget items” above totaled $3.92 trillion.
•World War II: Original Cost: $288 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $3.6 trillion
Program (Description) Maximum Amount Current AmountNet Portfolio Commercial Paper Funding(Purchases ST Debt directly from corporate issuers)Term Auction Facility (TAF)(Banks get loans for as many as 28 days by posting collateral)Other Assets $601.9 $613.9MMIFF(Money Market Investor Funding Facility)
MBS/FHLB/Agency In Reverse Auctions $600.0 $0.0Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF)(Allows primary dealers to borrow Tsys by posting collateral)Other Credit Extensions(The AIG Loan)Primary Credit Discount(Original Fed lending program for commercial banks)Asset-Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) Liquidity(Loans to banks to buy ABCP from mutual funds) $61.9 $61.9Primary Dealers and others(A discount window for all primary dealers and securities firms)
Net Portfolio Maiden Lane (Bear Stearns Assets) $38.8 $26.9Securities Lending Overnight(one-day loans to banks on collateral)Secondary Credit $0.1 $0.1 Federal Reserve Total $5,057.8 $1,904.9
FDIC liquidity guarantees(Guarantees bank-to-bank loans)Loan Guarantee To Lending Arm of GE $139.0 $139.0 FDIC Total $1,539.0 $139.0
TARP $700.0 $350.0Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac (bailout) $350.0 $100.0Stimulus Package (Spring 2008) $168.0 $168.0Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund(Buys and sells Foreign currencies to moderate their fluctuation)Tax Break For Banks $29.0 $29.0Citibank Asset Backstop $306.0 $0.0TALF $200.0 $8.0 Treasury Total $1,803.0 $705.0
Hope for Homeowners(provides loan guarantees for struggling mortgage borrowers)
Auto Loans (via Dept. of Energy) $25.0 $0.0 Grand Total $8,699.8 $3,048.9
Other
Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ
The Federal Reserve
The FDIC
Treasury Department
FHA
$900.0 $421.0
$540.0 $0.0
Measuring The Size Of The BailoutsAs of December 29, 2008
$1,800.0 $325.8
$250.0 $190.2
$122.8 $122.8
$86.3 $86.3
$45.7 $45.7
$10.3 $10.3
$1,400.0 $0.0
$50.0 $50.0
$300.0 $300.0
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 9
A Parabolic Deficit
Federal Budget Deficit/Surplus(Rolling 12-Month Sum)
Dec-08, -816.01
May-07-169.65
Aug-83-199.01
Apr-92-332.08
Apr-04-454.57
Apr-01$277.66
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
196
8
197
0
197
2
197
4
197
6
197
8
198
0
198
2
198
4
198
6
198
8
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 10
The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
Total Federal Reserve Bank Credit
1/21/2009, 2177.56
9/10/2008888.28
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,4001
/9/1
98
0
5/1
3/1
98
1
9/1
5/1
98
2
1/1
8/1
98
4
5/2
2/1
98
5
9/2
4/1
98
6
1/2
7/1
98
8
5/3
1/1
98
9
10/
3/1
99
0
2/5
/19
92
6/9
/19
93
10/
12
/19
94
2/1
4/1
99
6
6/1
8/1
99
7
10/
21
/19
98
2/2
3/2
00
0
6/2
7/2
00
1
10/
30
/20
02
3/3
/20
04
7/6
/20
05
11/
8/2
00
6
3/1
2/2
00
8
7/1
5/2
00
9
Bill
ion
s O
f D
olla
rs
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
Bill
ion
s O
f D
olla
rs
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 11
Banks Are Lending!
Year-over-year Change in Total Loans of Total Banks
1/14/093.8%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%1
/2/1
97
4
12/
31
/19
75
12/
28
/19
77
12/
26
/19
79
12/
23
/19
81
12/
21
/19
83
12/
18
/19
85
12/
16
/19
87
12/
13
/19
89
12/
11
/19
91
12/
8/1
99
3
12/
6/1
99
5
12/
3/1
99
7
12/
1/1
99
9
11/
28
/20
01
11/
26
/20
03
11/
23
/20
05
11/
21
/20
07
11/
18
/20
09
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Credit Crunch Credit Crunch Credit Crunch
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 12
Banks Are Lending!
Total Domestic Banking Assets and the Year-over-year Change in Total Domestic Banking Assets
1/14/09$12.36
1/14/0911.5%
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
1/3
/19
73
6/1
2/1
974
11/
19
/19
75
4/2
7/1
977
10/
4/1
978
3/1
2/1
980
8/1
9/1
981
1/2
6/1
983
7/4
/19
84
12/
11
/19
85
5/2
0/1
987
10/
26
/19
88
4/4
/19
90
9/1
1/1
991
2/1
7/1
993
7/2
7/1
994
1/3
/19
96
6/1
1/1
997
11/
18
/19
98
4/2
6/2
000
10/
3/2
001
3/1
2/2
003
8/1
8/2
004
1/2
5/2
006
7/4
/20
07
12/
10
/20
08
5/1
9/2
010
To
tal D
om
est
ic B
anki
ng A
sse
ts -
($T
rillio
ns)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Ye
ar-
ove
r-ye
ar
Ch
an
ge in
Tot
al B
an
kin
g A
sse
ts
Year-over-year change(Right Scale)
Total Banking Assets(Left Scale)
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 13
The Stock Market Decline Now Rivals The 1930s
SPX Draw Down(The Percentage From High Since March 24, 2000, Closes only)
8/12/1982-27.11%6/27/1962
-27.59%
5/26/1970-36.06%
10/19/1987-33.17%
6/13/1949, -57.43%
4/28/1942, -76.53%
7/8/1932, -86.15%
11/17/1949
11/20/2008-51.93%
10/9/2002-49.15%
10/4/1974-48.15%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
The S&P 500
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 14
Record Volatility
S&P 500 VolatilityPercentage Of Days With At Least A 2% Move (up or down) Over The Previous 1 Month
12/5/2008, 77.30%
11/15/192972.70%
8/19/1932, 72.70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%Ja
n-2
8
Ma
y-3
1
Se
p-3
4
Jan
-38
Ma
y-4
1
Se
p-4
4
Jan
-48
Ma
y-5
1
Se
p-5
4
Jan
-58
Ma
y-6
1
Se
p-6
4
Jan
-68
Ma
y-7
1
Se
p-7
4
Jan
-78
Ma
y-8
1
Se
p-8
4
Jan
-88
Ma
y-9
1
Se
p-9
4
Jan
-98
Ma
y-0
1
Se
p-0
4
Jan
-08
We
ekl
y P
lot
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
We
ekl
y P
lot
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 15
Worst Corporate Spreads Since 1933
Moody's Interest Rates
Sept-1981,15.49
2.46April 1946
Feb-1982, 17.18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1/3
1/1
91
9
11
/30/
19
24
9/3
0/1
93
0
7/3
1/1
93
6
5/3
1/1
94
2
3/3
1/1
94
8
1/3
1/1
95
4
11
/30/
19
59
9/3
0/1
96
5
7/3
1/1
97
1
5/3
1/1
97
7
3/3
1/1
98
3
1/3
1/1
98
9
11
/30/
19
94
9/3
0/2
00
0
7/3
1/2
00
6
5/3
1/2
01
2
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge
Yie
lds
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge
Yie
lds
Aaa Interest Rates
Baa Interest Rates
Long-Term Corporate Spreads
Dec-20083.38
Sept-1982, 2.69
Feb-1966, 0.34
Jun-1932, 5.59
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1/3
1/1
91
9
11
/30
/19
24
9/3
0/1
93
0
7/3
1/1
93
6
5/3
1/1
94
2
3/3
1/1
94
8
1/3
1/1
95
4
11
/30
/19
59
9/3
0/1
96
5
7/3
1/1
97
1
5/3
1/1
97
7
3/3
1/1
98
3
1/3
1/1
98
9
11
/30
/19
94
9/3
0/2
00
0
7/3
1/2
00
6
5/3
1/2
01
2
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge
Yie
lds
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge
Yie
lds
Nov-1933
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 16
It Is All The Same Trade
S&P 500
700
800
900
1000
11001200
1300
1400
1500
1600
700
800
900
1000
11001200
1300
1400
1500
1600
Brazilian Stocks
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 95.82%
Investment Grade OAS0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 94.81%
The VIX0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
1/5/
1998
1/12
/199
9
1/27
/200
0
3/1/
2001
3/25
/200
2
4/8/
2003
4/28
/200
4
5/19
/200
5
5/31
/200
6
6/12
/200
7
7/2/
2008
6/12
/200
9
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 85.43%
The MOVE Index0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1/5/
1998
1/12
/199
9
1/27
/200
0
3/1/
2001
3/25
/200
2
4/8/
2003
4/28
/200
4
5/19
/200
5
5/31
/200
6
6/12
/200
7
7/2/
2008
6/12
/200
9
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 64.94%
Emerging Market Spreads(EMBI+ OAS)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 95.98%
Euro
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 83.74%
S&P 500
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index
100
200
300
400
500
100
200
300
400
500
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 96.85%
The Baltic Dry Index
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 95.69%
S&P 500
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
Currency Volatility0
10
20
30
0
10
20
30
1/5/
1998
1/12
/199
9
1/27
/200
0
3/1/
2001
3/25
/200
2
4/8/
2003
4/28
/200
4
5/19
/200
5
5/31
/200
6
6/12
/200
7
7/2/
2008
6/12
/200
9
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 92.35%
Crude Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 94.41%
Yen
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 93.11%
Chinese Stocks
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Correlation to the S&P 500 = 76.28%
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 17
It Is All The Same Trade - 2
Does Everything Trade Like The S&P 500?
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
7/1
7/1
998
8/5
/19
99
9/2
0/2
000
11/
5/2
001
12/
4/2
002
1/1
6/2
004
2/2
4/2
005
3/2
1/2
006
4/1
6/2
007
5/2
7/2
008
5/2
1/2
009
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%This chart shows the least correlated market to the S&P 500 from a selection of eight markets. The correlation is calculated on a rolling 6-month basis.
The eight markets are: 1. Brazilian Stocks 2. Investment Grade Spreads3. Bond Market Volatiltiy4. Stock Market Volatiltiy5. Commodities (Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index)6. Freight Rates (Baltic Dry Index)7. The Euro8. Emerging Market Spreads9. Chinese Stocks10. Japanese Yen11. Crude Oil12. Currency Volatility
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 18
It’s All The Same Sector
S&P 500/ Financial Sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Correlation to S&P 500 = 97.05%
S&P 500/ Materials Index
50
100
150
200
250
300
50
100
150
200
250
300
Correlation to S&P 500 = 99.29%
S&P 500/ Information Technology Sector
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Correlation to S&P 500 = 99.25%
S&P 500/ Utilities Sector
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Correlation to S&P 500 = 96.60%
S&P 500/ Industrial Sector
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
Correlation to S&P 500 = 99.72%
S&P 500/ Consumer Staples Sector
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Correlation to S&P 500 = 97.84%
S&P 500/ Consumer Discretionary Sector
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Correlation to S&P 500 = 98.35%
S&P 500/ Energy Sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Correlation to S&P 500 = 97.44%
S&P 500/ Telecommunications Sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
9/12
/198
9
11/1
6/19
90
1/27
/199
2
4/2/
1993
6/10
/199
4
8/17
/199
5
10/2
3/19
96
12/3
1/19
97
3/12
/199
9
5/18
/200
0
7/27
/200
1
10/1
0/20
02
12/1
8/20
03
2/17
/200
5
4/19
/200
6
3/31
/200
7
4/7/
2008
6/9/
2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Correlation to S&P 500 = 91.57%
S&P 500/ Health Care Sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
9/12
/198
9
11/1
6/19
90
1/27
/199
2
4/2/
1993
6/10
/199
4
8/17
/199
5
10/2
3/19
96
12/3
1/19
97
3/12
/199
9
5/18
/200
0
7/27
/200
1
10/1
0/20
02
12/1
8/20
03
2/17
/200
5
4/19
/200
6
3/31
/200
7
4/7/
2008
6/9/
2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
Correlation to S&P 500 = 98.55%
Standard & Poors 500
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Standard & Poors 500
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Bianco Research, L.L.C January 30, 2009 19
It’s All The Same Sector - 2
Measuring Stock Market "Similarity"
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
9/1
2/1
989
9/7
/19
90
9/4
/19
91
8/2
8/1
992
8/2
5/1
993
8/2
2/1
994
8/1
7/1
995
8/1
3/1
996
8/8
/19
97
8/6
/19
98
8/4
/19
99
7/3
1/2
000
7/2
7/2
001
7/3
1/2
002
7/2
9/2
003
7/2
2/2
004
7/7
/20
05
6/2
8/2
006
3/3
1/2
007
1/2
5/2
008
1/2
0/2
009
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%The Ten Sectors are: 1. Financial2. Consumer Discretionary 3. Materials4. Industries5. Information Technology
This chart shows the least correlated Sector to the S&P 500 from a selection of ten S&P 500 Sectors. The correlation is calculated on a rolling 6-month basis.
6. Energy7. Telecommunications8. Consumer Staples9. Health Care10. Utilities
Copyright 2009 Bianco Research, L.L.C.
This message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the designated recipients named above. If you are not the intended recipient of this message you are hereby notified that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. This communication is for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial product, an official confirmation of any transaction, or as an official statement of Bianco Research LLC. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. Therefore, we do not represent that this information is complete or accurate and it should not be relied upon as such. All information is subject to change without notice.
Bianco Research L.L.C.Clybourn Galleria1731 N. Marcey StreetSuite 510Chicago IL 60614
Phone: (847) 304-1511 Fax: (847) 304-1749e-mail: [email protected]://www.biancoresearch.com
For more information about the contents/ opinions contained in these reports: President (847) 756-3599 James A. Bianco [email protected]
Strategist/Analysts (847) 304-1511 Howard L. Simons [email protected] Greg Blaha [email protected] Ryan Malo [email protected]
For subscription/service Information: Arbor Research & Trading, Inc. Director of Sales & Marketing (800) 606-1872 Fritz Handler [email protected]
Arbor Research & Trading, Inc.1000 Hart Road, Suite 260Barrington IL 60010
Phone: (847) 304-1560 Fax: (847) 304-1595e-mail: [email protected]://www.arborresearch.com
Domestic - For more information about Arbor Research & Trading and its services:
New York Sales OfficeThe Chrysler Building405 Lexington AveNew York, NY 10174Edward T. McElwreath [email protected] (212) 867-5326 Fax (212) 370-1218
International - For more information about Arbor Research & Trading and its services:London Sales Office4 Broadgate, 2nd Floor, Room 57London England EC2M 2QYPhone 44-207-965-4784 Fax 44-207-965-4787Neil Tritton [email protected] Ben Gibson [email protected]
International Sales James L. Perry [email protected] (847) 756-3510 Fax (847) 304-1595Rich Kleinbauer [email protected] (41) 22 363-9229
Far East SalesRobert Reynolds [email protected] (847) 756-3680 Fax (435) 647-3073