Why Are We Pushing for AggressiveFederal Rules to Reduce National/Regional

NOx, SO2 and Hg Emissions?

NACAA Board Meeting

July 31 to August 2, 2010

PREPARED WITH AN EPA

DISCUSSION OR BRIEFING IN MIND

2

Six Highest Priority Categories

         

• The Priority Sectors– EGUs– Tougher On-Road

Standards (NOx and VOC)

– ICI Boilers– Cement Kilns– Marine Engines– Locomotives

• “A+” level of controls• Why? … What’s Our

Logic?

Multi-Pollutant Sector-Based Controls

3

Understanding How Transport Really Works

• Every bad ozone day, in the morning hours, a large cloud or reservoir of ozone sits above Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down.

– Based upon real, measured data– Ozone levels in the reservoir are

routinely measured at 60 to 100 ppb.– In the morning, ozone levels at the

surface are very low (10 to 20 ppb).• Around 10:00 or 11:00 – when the

nocturnal inversion breaks down - the ozone (and any precursors) in the reservoir mix down to the surface and degrade air quality.

• Every bad ozone day, in the morning hours, a large cloud or reservoir of ozone sits above Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down.

– Based upon real, measured data– Ozone levels in the reservoir are

routinely measured at 60 to 100 ppb.– In the morning, ozone levels at the

surface are very low (10 to 20 ppb).• Around 10:00 or 11:00 – when the

nocturnal inversion breaks down - the ozone (and any precursors) in the reservoir mix down to the surface and degrade air quality.0

3000

6000

9000

12000

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

Ozone (ppb)

He

igh

t (f

t)

Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)

Beltsville, MDGood Moderate Unhealthy for

Sensitive GroupsUnhealthy

Residual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ft

of 110 ppb110 ppb

Ozone-reduced surface layer

<< 40 ppb40 ppb

Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

Ozone (ppb)

He

igh

t (f

t)

Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)

Beltsville, MDGood Moderate Unhealthy for

Sensitive GroupsUnhealthyGood Moderate Unhealthy for

Sensitive GroupsUnhealthy

Residual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ft

of 110 ppb110 ppb

Ozone-reduced surface layer

<< 40 ppb40 ppb

Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

Residual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ft

of 110 ppb110 ppb

Ozone-reduced surface layer

<< 40 ppb40 ppb

Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

Ozone as an Example

The Transport Cloud ... or the Elevated Ozone ReservoirCould the

reservoir be much larger ???

4

The Transport CloudA Regional Cloud of Pollution - Crashing Down to Earth

Measured ozone at aloft monitors

in the 60 to 90 ppb range all

night long

All monitors, ground level and aloft, record ozone levels that are almost identical to what

was measured all night long at the aloft monitors

5

How Do We Reduce the Transport Cloud?

• The NOx SIP Call as an example– OTAG collaboration in late 90’s

– EPA finalizes SIP Call in 1998

– Very significant regional NOx reductions across the East in the 2003/2004 timeframe

– Dramatic drops in ozone levels

• Similar story for SO2 controls and PM

• The NOx SIP Call as an example– OTAG collaboration in late 90’s

– EPA finalizes SIP Call in 1998

– Very significant regional NOx reductions across the East in the 2003/2004 timeframe

– Dramatic drops in ozone levels

• Similar story for SO2 controls and PM

6

55.5%of Units

22.3%of Units

2 1 25

18

23

77

50

13

8

30

15

62 2

2 3 5 10

28

51

128

178191

199

229

244250 252 254

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

50

100

150

200

250Number of Units

Cumulative Total Units

Controls From the NOx SIP Call

Phase I

Minimal SCR UnitsExpect Minimal NOx

Reductions

Phase II

Large Number of SCR Units InstalledExpect SIGNIFIANT NOx Reductions

Especially after 2003-2004Air Quality

should decrease dramaticallyData courtesy of The Institute of Clean Air Companies (ICAC).

77.8% of Units Installedbetween 2003-2007 Scheduled Startup Units

7

Regional NOx Emission Reductions

1.92

1.22

0.59 0.520.38

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 2000 2005 2008 2009

Year

Ozo

ne

Sea

son

NO

X (

mil

lio

n t

on

s) .

• Dramatic regional NOx emission reductions in the 2003/2004 time frame

• NOx reductions from Tier II/LEV II standards also – very gradually - occurring in this same period

• Dramatic regional NOx emission reductions in the 2003/2004 time frame

• NOx reductions from Tier II/LEV II standards also – very gradually - occurring in this same period

NOx Reductions at NOx Budget Program Sources

Thanks: EPA Clean Air Markets

8

Reducing O3 in the Transport Cloud

Average ozone levels in the elevated

reservoir before 2004

Average ozone levels in the elevated

reservoir after 2004

9

Maryland's 1-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

1-H

our

Ozo

ne D

esig

n V

alue

(pp

b)

1-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb) 1-Hour Ozone Standard (125 ppb)

Maryland’s 1-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year

10

Maryland’s 8-Hour Ozone Design Value per YearMaryland's 8-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year

60

80

100

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

8-H

our

Ozo

ne D

esig

n V

alue

(pp

b)

8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb) 8-Hour Ozone Standard (85 ppb)8-Hour Ozone Standard (75 ppb)

11

Very Preliminary Ozone Modeling

• Very rough, preliminary OTC “Screening” modeling – Thanks to NYDEC

• From a 2007 Base• Three scenarios

– 50% NOx and 30% VOC cuts across all states and all sectors in domain

– 70% NOx and 30% VOC cuts across all states and all sectors in domain

– Federal Measures “Plus” Run• Tried to mimic federal rules and local

controls being targeted by OTC– “Top 6” Federal Measures across

domain » 65% cut to stationary NOx» 75% cut to on-road mobile NOx

(includes post-2007 Tier II benefits)

» 35% cut to area NOx» 30% VOC» In total about a 55% NOx and

30% VOC run– Additional 5% NOx in all OTC states

12

Results – Toughest Monitors in the EastNON

ATTAINMENT AREAS

Monitored Design Value

After

50% NOx & 30% VOC Run

After

70% NOx & 30% VOC Run

After

Federal Measures “+“ Run

New York

- Bayonne 85 81 74 78

- NYC/Queens 77 72 67 69

Philadelphia

- Camden 88 75 65 68

- Bristol 90 76 64 67

Cleveland/A/L

-Mayfield 79 74 64 71

-Eastlake 79 72 62 69

Columbus

- Albany HS 84 71 62 67

Washington

- River Terrace 83 70 59 62

Baltimore

- Edgewood 91 68 55 59

Getting closer …But still more to do.

Majority of monitors < 65ppb

13

Reducing Regional NOx

Emissions WorksThe 6 Priority Categories Represent

About 75% of the NOx Left to Regulate

14

The Fine Particle/SO2 Story• Similar to Ozone

– Regional reservoir of SO2 and PM dominates the East’s problem– Summertime SO2 “westerly” transport dominates Mid-Atlantic PM

levels and acts pretty much like Ozone for westerly transport• However …

– More complex chemistry– Different behavior at night

• Little debate over the regional nature of SO2 piece of the PM problems in the East

15

Eastern State - SO2 Controls

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Controlled Units

• Some controls driven by Title IV• Some controls driven by early CAIR

Source: EPA Clean Air Markets

16

SO2 Emission Reductions

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

East States

National

Thanks: EPA Clean Air Markets

17

Maryland Annual PM2.5 Trends (μg/m3)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

2000-2002

2001-2003

2002-2004

2003-2005

2004-2006

2005-2007

2006-2008

2007-2009

Glen Burnie

Essex

Fair Hill

Edgewood ArmyBase

Rockville

P.G. EquestrianCenter

Hagerstown

South East PoliceStation

Current Annual

Standard

18

Maryland PM2.5 24-Hr Trends (μg/m3)

2527293133353739414345 Davidsonville

Glen BurnieRiviera Beach E.S

Padonia E.S.

EssexFair Hill

Edgewood Army BaseRockville

Blabensburg VFD

HagerstownNorth East P.S.

North West P.S

South East P.S.Fairfield FMC

Old Town FDWestport E.S.

Current Daily

Standard

19

Reducing Regional SO2

Emissions WorksThe 6 Priority Categories Represent

About 85% of the NOx Left to Regulate

20

What Has This Meant to Maryland?

181

135 137

151 152147 143

137126

121

80

120

160

200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*

1-H

our

Ozo

ne (

ppb)

1-Hour Ozone

17.1

15.8 15.9

14.5

15.616.215.9

10

14

18

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Ann

ual P

M2.

5 (u

g/m

3 )

Annual Fine Particulate

41 4139

35

4241

37

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Dai

ly P

M2.

5 (

ug/m

3 )

30

34

38

42

46Daily Fine Particulate

8-Hour Ozone

110 110106 103

91 94

107 107 104

95 93 91

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

8-H

our

Ozo

ne (

ppb)

60

100

140

*2008 data are preliminary.

21

Just a Little on the Mercury Story

• Another Major Issue to the States– Joint effort between state water

and air programs

• 319 G Process initiated by Northeast states just beginning

• Moving towards 4 State/Federal Partnership efforts– National and local controls– Product stewardship– Global/International efforts– Communications

22

Clearly a National Problem

Thanks: EPA 319G Meeting

23

U.S. Mercury Emissions (2005)

Thanks: EPA 319G Meeting

The 6 Priority Categories

Represent About 75% of the 2005

national Hg emissions

24

So …

         

• Let’s work together on “A+” Multi-Pollutant control programs for the highest priority sectors– We need to do whatever we can to further reduce regional NOx, SO2

and Mercury emissions– Many lives to be saved

• Again - The Priority Sectors– EGUs– Tougher On-Road Tailpipe Standards (NOx and VOC)– ICI Boilers– Cement Kilns– Marine Engines– Locomotives

• These categories represent– About 85% of the SO2 that is left to regulate– About 75% of the NOx that is left to regulate and – About 75% of the 2005 national mercury emissions

25

Benefits

• Many lives to be saved– EPA has estimated the improvements

in public health resulting from just the 2004 NOx SIP Call

• Up to 1800 lives saved through 2008

• Significant health benefits to asthmatics and other individuals with lung disease

• Dramatically help states with old and new Ozone, PM, NO2 and SO2 SIPs

• Multiple other benefits– Haze/Visibility, Chesapeake Bay,

Mercury, other toxics, etc.

26

Next Steps? Consider a NACAA resolution or

letter?? Have appropriate NACAA

Committees develop recommendations on what “A+ Multi-Pollutant Controls” means for 6 priority categories?– Include EPA?– Build from earlier NACAA work and

other information• LEV III• CARB analyses of Locomotives and

Marine Engines and• LADCO/OTC work on EGUs and ICI

Boilers.

? Push for earlier state involvement in national rules as co-regulators?

• Discussion