Will Burma’s Superhero Save the Nation?

Synthesis of Myanmar’s Socio-Pol-Econ CurrentsPresented by: Chris Estallo (PHL), Joseph Jayaw & John Labang (MYANMAR)

• Politics: Military rule 1962-2011 gives way to an army-led transition to representative government.

• Economy: Myanmar is one of Asia's poorest countries; its economy is under-developed and riddled with corruption.

• International: Myanmar is gradually emerging from its international isolation; China is its main ally.

•Burma is the poorest country in Southeast Asia; apx 32% of the population lives in poverty.

•Remains one of the Least Developed Countries, ranked 132nd out of 169 countries (2010 Human Development Index)

•More than 454,200 (government offensives against armed ethnic minority groups near its borders with China and Thailand) (2012)

• Source country for women, children, and men trafficked for the purpose of forced labor and commercial sexual exploitation.

•Military's continued widespread use of forced and child labor, and the recruitment of child soldiers.

•Around 13,000 boat people have fled communal strife that broke out in Arakan State last June, with at least 485 dying at sea in a desperate bid to escape violence and persecution (UNHCR)

…etc.

Thein Sein delivering his speech to members of the Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham House in London on Monday, 15 July 2013.

“We must open our doors to foreign trade and investment, but in a way that ensures poverty is reduced and that the ordinary farmer and worker clearly benefit. We will fight against corruption and we will fight to protect the environment.”

"There has been competition between China and ASEAN over Burma, they

both want to have a stronghold in the country" -Institute of South East

Asian studies in Singapore.

Massive Economic Potential• Favorable geographic location and rich variety of

natural resources. • Has one of the largest natural gas reserves in the

world, as well as other minerals. Most of the foreign investment is, in fact, in oil and gas exploration

• It is also rich in timber, agricultural products and precious stones, exporting mainly to Thailand, India and China.

• Geographically well positioned to be a gateway for trade.

• Dedicated and resilient human resources.

• Military handed over power to a nominal civilian government.

• Calls for peace with ethnic minority groups.• Easing of media controls.• Release of some political prisoners.• US and EU/UK lifting of non-arms sanctions.

Development Building Blocks

Barrier to Foreign Investment*• The economy is plagued by inefficient government

policies, corruption and chronic rural poverty.• A regime that is obsessed with its own security above

economic development.• No responsive, transparent and accountable business

procedures.• Has multiple exchange rates. Burma has an official

exchange rate and an unofficial, black market, rate.

*Maung Zarni, co-ordinator for Burma and Myanmar Research Initiative at the London School of Economics.

AHA!• Problems are not just procedural, they are

political, and they will need political will to be resolved.

• There is a long road ahead for Burma to start capitalising on its vast potential.

• Significant improvements in economic governance, the business climate, and the political situation are needed to promote serious foreign investment.

Achieving the MDGs*

• Encouraging inclusive growth (both rural and urban), including agricultural development and enhancement of employment opportunities (MDG1, with implications for

MDGs 2, 3, 4-6, 7)• Increasing equitable access to quality social services (MDGs 2, 3, 4-6, with implications for MDG1)• Reducing vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change (MDG7, climate change and disasters)• Promoting good governance and strengthening democratic

institution and rights (foundation for all MDGs)

*Thematic Analysis 2011, Achieving the MDGs in Myanmar, UNDP

Prospect

• The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) endorsed Burma to take on the leadership of the 10-member regional bloc in 2014, seen as a milestone in the government's quest for recognition.

• Aung San Suu Kyi in 2015 election? But, “Suu Kyi Remains Silent as Burma Burns,” according to analyst.

“The only thing we know about the future is that it will be different.”

-Peter F. Drucker

References

• http://www.irrawaddy.org/• http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/category/cartoon• http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2013/07/17/thein-sein-talks-at-chatham-house/• http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12990563• http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15768931• https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bm.html• http://www.mmtimes.com/• http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/MDG/english/MDG%20Country

%20Reports/Myanmar/Thematic-Analysis-2011-for-Myanmar.pdf• http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/myanmar