財團法人台灣綜合研究院 中華民國 97 年 7 月 29 日

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經濟部工業局委辦計畫. 我國石化工業政策環境影響評估 第二次專家諮詢會議. 財團法人台灣綜合研究院 中華民國 97 年 7 月 29 日. 目 錄. 壹、我國石化工業發展規劃 --------------------2 貳、我國現行石化工業發展策略與施行措施之檢討 與研析 ---------------------------------24 參、 石化工業政策環評之作業方式與期程規劃 ---32. 壹、我國石化工業發展規劃. 一 、 石化工業目前推動計畫. 二 、 石化工業重大投資案效益與影響評估. (一) 投資階段效益評估 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 97 7 29

  • --------------------2 ---------------------------------24---32

  • 20061.36%3.20%2006GDP1.03%2.22%1 93 22006 27.54GDP 11.89

    ()()()3991153,7521,2253,5389711,1693228,8582,6342006%0.140.101.361.031.280.820.420.273.202.22

  • 3322,1271,8321,0509706045513,5323,0422,62512680969760197062346297256221382412071792521,6141,3901,20089571492424

    -1,0001,3001,3509706041,8042,3452,435970623

  • 20062.05%5.47%2006GDP0.90%2.43%1 93 22006 27.54GDP 11.89

    ()()()332482,1273101,8322671,0501535,341778()5511193,5327643,0426582,6255689,7512,110()8831685,6591,0744,8749253,67572115,0922,8882006%0.320.142.050.901.770.781.330.615.472.43

  • 2006CO2(CO2 TSPSOX NOX VOCS )CO2 CO2200710

    32,107

    71,963

    5,418

    117,394

    38,391

    265,273

    0

    7,525

    686

    730

    2,608

    11,549

    32,054

    17,201

    2,117

    51,843

    34,850

    138,066

    9,968

    7,618

    371

    8,803

    27,335

    54,094

    9,968

    5,676

    338

    4,381

    27,335

    47,698

    13

    3,507

    57

    1,125

    115

    4,817

    2,817

    1,697

    136

    0

    20,865

    25,516

    0

    16

    6

    158

    0

    180

    2,695

    417

    1

    2,168

    4,556

    9,836

    4,443

    39

    123

    931

    1,799

    7,334

    0

    638

    10

    1,738

    0

    2,386

    0

    265

    23

    2,684

    0

    2,971

    0

    1,039

    0

    0

    0

    1,039

    32,850

  • CO2 2025CO25,462

    () CO2()CO2(/)2005-20102011-20152016-20202021-2025 1,100 846 7,5706.88 400 200 1,5003.75 332 380 1,0003.01 12,127 2,500 5,7702.71 1,050 1,100 2,1302.03 21,8322,495 3,8002.07 6,8411,0463,9802,495021,7703.18

  • TSPSOX NOX VOCs /

    TSP

    SOX

    NOX

    VOCS

    646

    (25)

    4,934

    (1,426)

    4,908

    (494)

    2,535

    (36)

    1,048

    6,636

    9,332

    3,169

    4,399

    (1,059)

    20,582

    (4,582)

    24,280

    (4,658)

    5,469

    (1,167)

  • ( )2004 (2005,12)

  • 5/

    (2.8/)

    5,574/

    (514/)

    24.4/

    7.4/

    52.9/

    (17.8/)

    18.8/

    ()

  • 2007()

    -

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

    8,184,682

    4,055,686

    19,916,888

    5,533,567

    5,317,328

    1,569,597

    206,651,821

    57,775,926

    8,184,682

    1,937,069

    19,916,888

    190,285

    4,644,525

    710,825

    119,318,130

    41,243,171

    5,366,884

    1,540,736

    19,916,888

    79,593

    1,533,462

    108,497

    28,301,225

    26,445,847

    2,191,340

    1,057,556

    19,916,888

    79,403

    1,293,600

    66,850

    19,735,254

    22,830,152

    6,343

    134,244

    4,690

    1,147,075

    18,507

    5,6126

    1,294,869

    2,184,997

    923,312

    19,916,888

    74,713

    141,874

    45,659

    17,912,294

    21,358,936

    ()

    923,312

    19,916,888

    17,877,539

    4,652

    2,672

    7,427.274

    1,375,319

    1,375,319

    20

    185,700

    231

    6,602,139

    2,685,620

    1,800,228

    1,800,228

    170

    7,522

    41,403

    1,596,983

    2,642,319

    483,180

    46,640

    366,849

    404,882

    3,985,225

    2,723,540

    19,916,888

    74,883

    149,396

    87,062

    19,509,277

    24,001,255

    923,312

    19,916,888

    17,877,539

    3,985,225

    1,800,228

    74,883

    149,396

    87,062

    19,509,277

    6,123,716

  • ()

    2,717,000/

    126,000/

    126,000/

    1,567,371/

    897,8601/

  • 2015GDP32015GDP19.90GDP20.22(base on 2001)1. 2001 2. 2015GDP30000*28.6*2319119.902015GDP 98.42base on 2001)GDP20.22 3. 4. ( )

    2005

    2015

    2025

    2005

    ~2015

    2015

    ~2025

    2005

    ~2025

    2005

    ~2015

    2015

    ~2025

    2005

    ~2025

    243,266

    (100.0%)

    118,096

    (100.0%)

    202,173

    (100.0%)

    293,735

    (100.0%)

    71.2%

    45.3%

    148.7%

    5.52%

    3.81%

    4.66%

    108,116

    (44.4%)

    157,620

    198,713

    45.8%

    26.1%

    83.8%

    3.84%

    2.34%

    3.09%

    30,177

    (25.6%)

    48,439

    (24.0%)

    64,622

    (22.0%)

    60.5%

    33.4%

    114.1%

    4.85%

    2.92%

    3.88%

    7,500

    (3.1%)

    17,785

    20,356

    137.1%

    14.5%

    171.4%

    9.02%

    1.36%

    5.12%

    1,307

    (1.1%)

    3,379

    (1.7%)

    3,982

    (1.4%)

    158.6%

    17.8%

    204.8%

    9.97%

    1.65%

    5.73%

  • CO2112.420052142000201520251002003004005000137.3257542199190-19515037.6LNG/JICDMET112.449

  • 20252000(214)112.4CO21. 0.638/ 2. CO2CO2 / /

    Sheet1

    200520152025

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $243,266100.0%

    $108,11644.4%$157,620$198,71345.8%26.1%83.8%3.84%2.34%3.09%

    $7,5003.1%$17,785$20,356137.1%14.5%171.4%9.02%1.36%5.12%

    200520152025

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $118,096100.0%$202,173100.0%$293,735100.0%71.2%45.3%148.7%5.52%3.81%4.66%

    $30,17725.6%$48,43924.0%$64,62222.0%60.5%33.4%114.1%4.85%2.92%3.88%

    $1,3071.1%$3,3791.7%$3,9821.4%158.6%17.8%204.8%9.97%1.65%5.73%

    CO2

    200520152025

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $257,265100.0%345,000~350,000100.0%370,000~375,000100.0%

    $143,35155.7%$190,64254.5%~55.3%$199,02853.1%~53.7%33.0%4.4%38.8%2.89%0.43%1.65%

    $30,47711.8%$44,74312.6%~12.8%$48,84113.0%~13.2%46.8%9.2%60.3%3.91%0.88%2.39%

    200520152025

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    4.753.943.08-17.1%-21.7%-35.2%-1.86%-2.42%-2.14%

    23.3313.2412.27-43.2%-7.4%-47.4%-5.51%-0.76%-3.16%

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

    Sheet1

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $243,266100.0%

    $108,11644.4%$157,620$198,71345.8%26.1%83.8%3.84%2.34%3.09%

    $7,5003.1%$17,785$20,356137.1%14.5%171.4%9.02%1.36%5.12%

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $118,096100.0%$202,173100.0%$293,735100.0%71.2%45.3%148.7%5.52%3.81%4.66%

    $30,17725.6%$48,43924.0%$64,62222.0%60.5%33.4%114.1%4.85%2.92%3.88%

    $1,3071.1%$3,3791.7%$3,9821.4%158.6%17.8%204.8%9.97%1.65%5.73%

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $257,265100.0%345,000~350,000100.0%370,000~375,000100.0%

    $143,35155.7%$190,64254.5%~55.3%$199,02853.1%~53.7%33.0%4.4%38.8%2.89%0.43%1.65%

    $30,47711.8%$44,74312.6%~12.8%$48,84113.0%~13.2%46.8%9.2%60.3%3.91%0.88%2.39%

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    4.753.943.08-17.1%-21.7%-35.2%-1.86%-2.42%-2.14%

    23.3313.2412.27-43.2%-7.4%-47.4%-5.51%-0.76%-3.16%

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • /2006GDPCO2

    23

    2012

    23

    60

    +37

    +0.14%

    +100

    35

    35

    100

    65

    50

    2015

    50

    0

    0

    -50

    -0.48%

    380

    312

    2010

    312

    324

    +12

    +0.61%

    +213

    0

    0

    2015

    120

    +120

    +0.90%

    +577

    120

    +120

    +0.90%

    +380

  • 201520251.97 5 27 2. ()

  • 3+++

  • CEPA

  • FTA

  • 2692.01.08

    95.04.07

    3

    95.04.14

    6

    96.01.15

  • 1.2.3.4.(10)5.6.7.8.9.

  • ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

  • ()()()()()()()()()()()

  • ()

    1.2.3.()

  • ()

  • consultation

  • (1)

  • (2)

  • 97 1. 2. 3.98 1. 2.99 1.

  • 9773 1 2 3CO2 (TSP)(SOx) (NOx)(VOCs)4