ENERGY ECONOMIC & POLICY

100.12.29

()

(capacity to do work)

(commercial energy)

10~10- ~110~7,000 1~1400AD~1875AD~1950ADDahl, C. A., International Energy Market: Understanding Pricing, Policies, and Profit, 2004.

Chart1

4000

4800

5.25.55.50

7.420.67.93.1

9.546.334.218.4

13.29512993

(Gigajoules)

Sheet1

4000

- 4800

5.25.55.50

7.420.67.93.1

9.546.334.218.4

13.29512993

Sheet2

Sheet3

(1/2);

(2/2)()17101890;1940

-

CCOP (1999)

-

-

(capital-intensive)(lead time)

OPEC

-

(derived demand)

()

-

2010BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

-

3,327MW8%20259,952MW14.8%203012,502MW16.1%356(78%

WWEA- world wind energy report 2010

518.7MW26812.9 20304,200MW

54MW4.6MW6 20303,100MW

Clingendael International Energy Programme(2004)(sufficient)(reasonable)(affordable)

(IEA,2007)

E

(complementarity)(tradeoff)

()

(1/3)1/32/3 15 30

(2/3)

280ppm387ppm(2009)( 38%)

(3/3)GWP: Global Warming Potential

GWPCO21()CH421N2O310HFC-2311,700SF623,900PFCs6500~9200

200530004,5 2011

91979-200420%205040%

40%(20)

19926 (UNFCCC, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (155)199712 2005216

(COP)

(1/3)2004912532(ANNEX )> 551990CO244.2% < 55% CO2(17%) 93.11.0490(36.1%)

(2/3)2005216382008~201219905.2% 2007COP13/MOP3 (Bali Road Map)200920122008COP14/MOP42009

2009COP15

2010COP16COP16COP(3/3)

COP171997(Kyoto Protocol)(2012)(2012)(Durban)COP17

COP17

(Road Map)20152020

COP17COP172012

COP17

2010145.561988~20104.66%49.04%99.3% 60.03 %79.71%

()2010120.311988~20104.39%GDP10.88%

CO2 ()2000CO2 2142010254200054.82000CO2()

Chart1

261722.94

58613.52

12784.4

18216.65

1371.86

98.95

Chart2

Chart2

7.31

52.42

16.13

22.33

1.81

47.9(22.3%)

3.8(1.8%)

34.6(16.1%)

112.4(52.4%)

15.7(7.3%)

Sheet1

2002CO2

CO2CH4N2OHFCsPFCsSF6

261722.9458613.5212784.418216.651371.8698.95352808.32

7.3152.4216.1322.331.81

CO2

CO21990-20104.2%20082010 CO2 20081990~2010 2000 10.3%1991 8.2%20071.4%20102541990143

(2010)

CO2CO21987~20075.98%20078.36%CO232.1% 2020CO2

198419942003201087202018.026.732.132.0927-3059.252.851.149.0437-402.96.68.410.1614-163.93.00.30.281-316.011.98.08.2813-15 0.10.151-3

1. 2. cap and trade

199219941998199620002004200220061992519971220017200111200512005/2/1620057Gleneagles G8 20057(APP)200511COP12/MOP1199819992119921994199720022004200620062200642006420067200320052006320065200610Stern Review Report200611COP12/MOP22007IPCC AR420079 200712 200812 -(COP14)2008200020081101994320072007520077200771

1.822015200520%2.202550% 1.20162020200820252000 2.40%202555%

20119.0

(2011.11)

()16.85%2010400.2992.32%

()5,144MW2,700MW

(2011.11)

()201510%16%

0.66

()

(2011.11)

(2011.11)

()1850-2150(2004)

: :2020

(Economic Growth)(Environmental Protection) (Energy Security)(3E)3E

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