国际油轮船东协会 future demands on the tanker industry the upcoming new business...

国际油轮船东协会


Future Demands on the Tanker Industry

the Upcoming New Business Environment

Tim Wilkins

Regional Manager Asia-Pacific

Environmental Manager

Image C

ourtesy of NO

RD

EN

AS

2nd China Shipbuilding Summit

Dalian, 18-20 June 2008


Presentation overview

1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview

2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment

1. Overview

2. Environment

3. Human element

INTERTANKO Today

290 + members operating ca. 2950 ships> 80% of the independent oil tanker fleet

> 85% of the chemical carrier fleet

330 + associate members:in oil and chemical tanker related businesses

15 Committees – 5 Regional Panels

Principal Offices – London and Oslo

Representative Offices in Asia, US and Brussels

Observer Status at IMO, IOPC, OECD and UNCTAD


INTERTANKO – The Voice of the Tanker Industry

MISSION• To provide leadership to the Tanker Industry in serving the world

with safe, environmentally sound and efficient seaborne transportation of oil, gas and chemical products.

VISION FOR THE TANKER INDUSTRY• A responsible, sustainable, respected Tanker Industry, committed

to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future.

领导油轮工业取得业绩上的不断改进和提高，以努力实现以下目标：• 零死亡事故• 零海洋污染• 零港口国控制滞留率

Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve the goals of:• Zero fatalities• Zero pollution• Zero detentions


INTERTANKO Membership

0

55

110

165

220

275

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

No. members

m dwt

No. ships

No. members/million dwt No. tankers

Oil market and

Tanker fleet overview


Tanker development (oil and chemical)

m dwt number

0

98

196

294

392

490

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110

1,220

2,440

3,660

4,880

6,100

dwt number


Future for Single Hulls

Options today

• Conversion to

- DH Tanker

- FSU/FPSO

- Bulk Carrier

• Recycling

• Continue Trading

Continued Trading

• Subject to (i) Flag state and (ii) Coastal state acceptability after 2010

• Uncertainty over- Korea- Japan- China- India- Others


Investment in new tonnage - Move to Double Hulls

• More than USD 500 billion invested since 2000 with the result that ~95% of tanker fleet double hulled in 2010

622

5159

67 68 73 78 84 91 9694

78

4941

33 32 27 22 16 9 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

1991

1997

End

02

End

03

End

04

End

05

End

06

End

07

End

08

End

09

End

10

SH/DB/DS

DH

% dwt share:

Assumed all SH tankers phased out by 2010


Average age tankers above 10,000 dwt (1970-2007)

Years

6

8

10

12

14

16

197019731976 197919821985 1988199119941997 200020032006


Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase out - tankers above 25,000 dwt

m d

wt

63 m dwt 155 m dwt

358 m dwt

0

60

120

180

240

300

360

SH - 18% Orders - 43% Fleet - 100%

VLCC

Suezmax

Aframax

Panamax

Handy

23%

36%

41%

45%

48%

Shares of fleet

Share of fleet


Single Hull Tanker Phase Out - “uncertainty” post 2010m

dw

t

Assumptions :• MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015• The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010.• DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SHuntil 25 years)EU + no SH after 2010

OPA90


Where did the Single Hull tankers go in 2007tankers above 50,000 dwt

‘000

dw

t

0

25

50

75

100

125

China 9% India 19% Japan 8% Med 5% N Am E/G5%

SE Asia13%

S Korea17%

Others24%

50 - 80 dwt 80 - 120 dwt

120 - 200 dwt 200 dwt+

Source: Fearnleys

SH Arrivals: 765 1521 618 432 387 1026 1351 1972

NW Europe: 103 arrivalsN America: 60 ”


Share of oil import by hull 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

India S Korea Asia RS Africa China Japan ROW

DH

non-DH‘000

dw

t

Source: Fearnleys


VLCC arriving in AG1 Dec 2006 – 18 April 2008

No

ship

s

Source. PF Bassøe/Pareto

Double hull tanker taking over

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

504

8 1 5 9

13

17

21

25

29

33

37

41

45

49 2 6

10

15

19

20

SH DH Linear (SH) Linear (DH)

Week number

Phase out by segment


Tanker fleet: by hull type and size segmentm

dw

t

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

5-24,999 25-59,999 Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC

SH

DB/DS

DH


Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers25,000 – 59,999 dwt, - assume 2.5% trade increase

m d

wt

Number: 347 - SH 312 Orderbook: 475m wt: 43.7 - SH 11.8 Orderbook: 22.0

Assume all SH tankers phased out by 2010, balanced market end 2006

OverhangOverhangfrom pre 08from pre 08

-5-4

-3-2

-10

12

345

67

89

1011

1213

-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

New building tobalance - zero

Max phase out

Demolition

Delveries

Surplus tonnage

year


Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersPanamax – assume 2.5% trade growth

Number: Fleet SH OrderbookFleet 347 72 134m dwt: 24.4 4.7 9.8

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Newbuildingto balance

Max phaseout

Demolition

Delveries

Surplustonnage

OverhangOverhangfrom pre 08from pre 08

m d

wt


Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersAframax – assume 2.5% trade growth

Number Fleet SH OrderbookFleet 749 104 283m dwt 77.3 9.8 31.2

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

New building tobalanceMax phase out

Deletions

Delveries

Surplus tonnage

year

Assumed conversions + other removals

m d

wt


Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersSuezmax – assume 2.5% trade growth

Number: Fleet SH OrderbookFleet 363 41 155m dwt: 54.0 7.6 24.5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15


Deletions

Delveries

Surplus tonnage

year

Assumed conversions + other removals,

Balanced market end 2006

m d

wt


Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersVLCC – assuming 2.5% trade growth

Number Fleet SH OrderbookFleet 505 117 219m dwt 149.3 32.0 67.7

-22

-18

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15


Deletions

Delveries

Surplus tonnage

year

Assumed conversions + other removals

Assumptions:Balanced market end 2006 max phase out, increase in demand of 2.5%

m d

wt


m dwt

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15


Deletions

Delveries

Surplus 4% tradegrow thSurplus 2.5%trade grow thSurplus zero tradegrow th

year

Removals in addition to phase out (conversions)


Conclusion

• SH fleet 40% of the orderbook• SH tankers becoming marginal in most size segments –

biggest share in VLCC segment• SH tankers moving to certain areas (66% Asia 2007)• Change in VLCC spot market after SH becoming marginal?

State of the Industry


SHIP OWNER OIL COMPANY SPOKESMAN

The rogues of the oil tanker industry


Tanker incidents 2007 by type and accidental pollution

1000 ts oil pollutionNo. incidents

0

200

400

600

800

1000

78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

War

Hull & Machinery

Fire/Expl

Grounded

Coll/Contact

Misc.

Pollution - bars

Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/ITOPF/various


Accidental oil pollution into the sea

Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys

1000ts spilt

bn tonne-m

0.0

0.7

1.4

2.1

2.8

3.5

1970s 1980s 1990s PR00s

0

26

52

78

104

130

1000 ts spilt

'0000 bntonne-miles

- 63% -6% -78%

-45% -33% -82% reduction per tonne miles


Reported tanker incidents

Number

0

200

400

600

800

1000

78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

0

84

168

252

336

420

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

War

H & M

F & E

Grounding

Collis.

M isc

Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various


Tanker incidents 2007 by type

Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various

1%

27%

13%

29%

9%

20%

Collision/contact

Grounding

Fire/Explosion

Hull & machinery

Misc/unknown

Hostilties

Collision Grounding

Hull & Machinery 95 of which 56 engine related

Misc.

Fire & Expl.

Reported tanker 325

incidents 2007


Tanker incidents 2007 by age

Built 1970s -

Built 1980s

Built 1990s

Built 2000s

Incidents/no tankers:

0.000 0.200

Built1970s

Built1980s

Built1990s

Built2000s

325 incidents

13%

21%

33%

33%


1. Environment


Tanker Industry’s Environmental Agenda

• Anti-fouling Systems • Ballast Water Management • Biofouling• Ship Recycling• Port Reception Facilities• Waste Management• Marine Noise Pollution• Whale Strikes • Spill Prevention and Response Planning• VOC reductions• Atmospheric Pollution - Revision of MARPOL Annex VI

• Green House Gas Emissions • Environmental Benchmarking


• Reduction options

Technical and commercial feasibility assessments

• Carbon (CO2) indexing

Design Index (New); Operational Index (existing)

• Market Mechanisms (Economic Instruments)

Emissions Trading, Carbon Levy (Fuel tax), Incentive Schemes

One litre of fuel on a modern VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) moving one tonne of cargo more than 2,500 kilometres - more

than twice as far as 20 years ago

Air emissions – GHGs


Vessel Design Index

Proposed Index (gram CO2/tonne-mile) =

Fuel Cons (g/kW hr) x (ME power (kW) x (1+K2)) x C/c

DWT (tonne) x Max Speed (n mile/hr) x K1

K1 is Coefficient of decreased propulsion efficiency in actual sea conditions

K2 is Coefficient of contribution to CO2 from aux engines and energy conservation equipment

Issues for consideration• Application to all ship types ?• One or more design conditions ? – e.g. load/ballast• One or more sea conditions ? – how weighted ?• How measured / normalised / verified ?

Air emissions – GHGs


2. Human element


Human element

Availability and Quality Issues

But a guiding principle:

Human Resources are respected as an asset, not treated as a cost !


• Proud of our people, proud of our ships

• Proud of our performance – but not complacent !

Human element


Human element

• MANNING

- IMO Safe Manning Document

- ILO Convention 180

- Maritime universities

• TRAINING

- Cadet berths

- Tanker Officer Training Standards (TOTS)


Presentation overview

1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview

2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment

1. Overview

2. Environment

3. Human element


thank you

For more information please visit www.intertanko.com

[email protected]

国际油轮船东协会 future demands on the tanker industry the upcoming new business...

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