气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍 Presentation on Physical Impacts Work

• Yinlong XU Yinlong XU （（许 吟隆许 吟隆））• Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture

• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)• Beijing, China

• 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所• Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 • E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn• 3 Mar. 2010

Adapting to Climate Change in China: China-UK-Swiss Partnership

内容内容ContentContent

• 工作进展 Progress• 国家层面工作计划 National-level work plan• 地方层面工作计划 Province-level work plan• 未来工作 Future work

工作进展Progress

国家层面工作计划 National-level work plan

• 农业（中国农业科学院） Agriculture (CAAS)

• 草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU)

• 水资源（南京水利科学研究院） Water resources (NHRI)

农业（中国农业科学院）：Agriculture (CAAS)

（ 1 ）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价 Phase : Current impact and assessment on climate changeⅠ

目标 1 ：气候变化历史影响的检测 Objective 1: Detect the historical impact of climate change.

目标 2 ：分析已经发生的气候变化与农业气象灾害损失、水资源、种植制度调整的关系

Objective 2: Analyze the relationship between climate changes which had happened and the loss of agro-meteorological disasters, water resources, cropping systems.

目标 3 ：评估已经采取的适应气候变化措施 Objective 3: Assess adaptation measures which have been taken to

adapt to climate change in the past.

目标 4 ：农业灾害风险处置措施评价及选择Objective 4: Assessment and adoption of agricultural disaster risk

disposal measures.

目标 5 ：评估农业对已发生气候变化影响的脆弱性 Objective 5: Evaluate the vulnerability about impact of agriculture on

climate change.

（ 2 ）未来影响的评估 Phase :Ⅱ Impact and assessment for the future

目标 1 ：评估模型的验证 Objective 1: Validation of Assessment Model.

目标 2 ：未来气候变化条件下中国种植区域与主要作物种植界限的变化及种植结构调整战略

Objective 2: Under the conditions of climate change in the future, the changes in crop planting area and main crops planting boundaries and the strategy of planting structural adjustment in China.

目标 3 ：未来气候变化对中国主要粮食作物的影响评估 Objective 3: Assessment that climate change in the future impacts on

major food crops in China.

目标 4 ：风险与脆弱性评估 Objective 4: Assessment on risk and vulnerability.

目标 5 ：农业灾害风险管理措施评估及建议 Objective 5: Assessment and proposition on disposal measures of

agricultural disaster risk.

（ 3 ）适应措施和政策建议 Phase : Adaptation and policy recommendationsⅢ

目标 1 ：我国农业适应气候变化空间区域划分 Objective 1: Space division about agricultural adaptation to climate

change in China.

目标 2 ：技术清单编制 Objective 2: Preparation of technical-list.

目标 3 ：农业适应气候变化的政策建议Objective 3: Policy recommendations about agricultural adaptation to

climate change.

目标 4 ：省级适应框架的完善 Objective 4: Complete the adaptation framework of provincial level.

草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU)

目标 1 ：气候变化对草地畜牧业影响的检测Objective 1 Detecting the impact of climate change on grassland and

livestock husbandry.

目标 2 ：全国层面的草地畜牧业气候变化影响评估模型校验Objective 2: Model development for assessment of the effects of

climate change on pasture livestock production nation wide.

目标 3 ：未来气候对草地畜牧业的影响与风险评估 Objective 3: Assessment of risk of future climate on pasture livestock

production.

目标 4 ：提出草地畜牧业适应气候变化的国家战略和对策Objective 4: Provide national strategies of adaptation to climate

change in pasture livestock production.

水资源（南京水利科学研究院）Water resources (NHRI)

目标 1 ：完善全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评估模型 Objective 1: Consummate China-wide assessment model for climate

change impact on water resources

目标 2 ：检测气候变化对典型流域实测径流量变化的影响，综合分析过去适应极端干旱、洪涝灾害的经验

Objective 2: Detect the effect of climate change on actual measurement of stream flow in typical watershed; comprehensively analyze the experience of past adapting to extreme drought and floods

目标 3 ：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 3 ： Assess the potential impact of climate change on future

water resources over China

目标 4 ：水利适应气候变化的国家战略和对策 Objective 4: Address national adaptation strategy of water industry to

climate change.

地方层面工作计划 Province-level work plan

• 宁夏 Ningxia

农业 Agriculture

水资源 Water Resources 适应技术示范 Adaptation case study

• 内蒙 Inner Mongolia 草地畜牧业 Grassland-livestock 水资源 Water resources 适应案例研究 Adaptation case study

省份 1 ：内蒙古Province 1 ： Inner Mongolia

Ⅰ ：草地畜牧业（内蒙古农业大学）Ⅰ ： Grassland-livestock (IM Agricultural University)

目标 1：气候变化对内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响评价

Objective 1 Climate change impacts risk assessment for whole Inner Mongolia grassland-livestock

目标 2：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响预估Objective 2 Assess the CC risk impact on grassland-livestock for whole Inner Mongolia grassland under the future climate scenarios

Ⅱ ：水资源（内蒙古水利局）Ⅱ ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Inner Mongolia)

目标 1：气候变化对内蒙古水资源的影响评估 Objective 1 Detection of climatic change impacts on Inner Mongolia water resource

目标 2：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估Objective 2 Future risk assessment

目标 3：不同草原类型区适应案例研究Objective 3 Case study of different grassland type region about water resources

Ⅲ ：适应案例研究 Ⅲ ： Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations

目标 1：典型草原草地畜牧业区——锡林浩特 Objective 1 Typical steppe grassland and animal husbandry area – Xilinhaote

目标 2：浑善达克沙地草地农业区——多伦 Objective 2 Sandy grassland agricultural area - Doron

目标 3：荒漠草原农牧交错带——四子王旗 Objective 3 Ecotone of desert and grassland - Siziwangqi

省份 2 ：宁夏Province 2 ： Ningxia Ⅰ ：农业（宁夏气象研究所）

Ⅰ ： Agriculture (Ningxia Meteorological Research Institute)

目标 1：历史气候变化对宁夏农业影响的检测 Objective 1 Analyze the impact of present climate change on agriculture in Ningxia

目标 2：未来影响的评估。评估未来气候变化条件下对宁夏农业生产的可能影响和脆弱性，考虑极端气候事件（侧重在干旱、高温等）的影响，进行农业综合适应气候变化措施的示范和效果评估，从农业气象灾害的角度提出对农业生产有指导意义的适应对策建议。 Objective 2 Assess the future agricultural production risk of climate change. Assess the possible impact and vulnerability of climate change on agricultural production in Ningxia, in terms of extreme climate events, especially drought and hot temperature events.; demonstrate and evaluate the comprehensive technologies to adapt to climate change; provide indicative suggestion in adapting to agro-meteorological hazards.

目标 3：气候变化综合对策分析Objective 3 Comprehensive agricultural adaptation recommendations to climate change

Ⅱ ：水资源（宁夏水利局）Ⅱ ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Ningxia)

目标 1：构建全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评估模型Objective 1 Build distributed assessment model in Ningxia

目标 2：气候变化对历史水资源的影响检测Objective 2 Risk assessments for the main rivers in NX

目标 3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估Objective 3 Water balance assessment for case study area and policy recommendations

Ⅲ ：适应案例研究 Ⅲ ： Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations

目标 1 “ ”：主要研究气候变暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、实现 一年两季 、提高冷凉山区农业生产效益的可行性 Objective 1 Under the condition of climate warming, Mainly to study the implementation of revaccination of winter wheat and pasture, to achieve "one-year two seasons," and promote the feasibility of agricultural production efficiency in cold mountain areas.

目标 2：主要进行气候变暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引进与示范栽培Objective 2 Under the condition of climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing maize

目标 3：主要进行适应气候变暖条件下中晚熟马铃薯新品种引进与示范栽培 Objective 3 Under the condition of adaptation to climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing potatoes.

目标 4：主要进行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、红豆草）丰产及养畜利用技术示范研究Objective 4 Mainly to study the high yield of leguminous forage (alfalfa, Onobrychis) and usage of technology in livestock

What’s new relative to the former projects

Policy-orientedQuestion-basedFrom runoff to hydrology concentration and routingTypical regions highlightedMore practical for case studyCombination for the method of top-down and bottom-upLess dependence on models

Provincial-level Risk Assessment

National-level Risk Assessment

Case Study Areas

National-level Policy Recommendations

Provincial-level Policy Recommendations

Local Adaptation Policy Recommendations

Shortcomings and the next-step work

Still in draftLack of requirements from stakeholdersData monopoly for water resourcesThe interaction between agriculture/grassland and water resources not highlighted

Detailed task assignmentsDialogues with the local authorities