Population Projections for Republic of China (Taiwan):

2016-2060Department of Human Resources Development

National Development Council

Sep. 2016

Declining marriage and fertility ratesFollowing the increase in educational and job opportunities for women, as

well as changes in family values, late marriage and childbirth become more frequently, not only shortening the period of women being able to give birth, but also reducing the number of children born in Taiwan.

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YearMedian Age at

First Marriage of Women (years)

Percentage of Currently Married Women to Total Women (%)

Total 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-49

1985 24.4 60.0 18.8 80.8 90.5 89.72000 25.7 53.8 8.5 62.0 80.6 80.82005 27.1 49.2 5.1 49.3 75.5 77.32010 28.8 45.1 2.7 41.6 69.7 73.22015 29.7 42.8 2.4 38.7 65.5 68.8

YearAverage Age

at Birth of First Child

(years)

Peak period of women’s

childbearing age (years)

Total Fertility Rate (per female)

Percent Distribution of Births by Birth Order (%)

1st born 2nd born 3rd born

1985 24.5 25~29 1.9 40.3 34.9 24.82000 26.7 25~29 1.7 46.6 36.7 16.72005 27.7 25~29 1.1 51.2 37.4 11.42010 29.6 30~34 0.9 53.1 36.1 10.82015 30.6 30~34 1.2 51.3 38.0 10.7

Source : As above.

Source: Ministry of the Interior, 2015 Demographic Fact Book R.O.C.

Trends in the birth rate and death rateIf population changes from international migration are not included, after

the curves of the crude birth rate and crude death rate intersect in 2022, the population will shift from naturally increasing to naturally decreasing.

Taking into consideration future net migration of approximately 12,000 people, the change from positive to negative growth of the total population is delayed.

3Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.

Trends in total population growthNegative population growth will occur in 2021 at the earliest and in 2025 at

the latest. The population will reach 23.7-23.8 million at its peak, representing growth

of 120,000-260,000 over 2016.By 2060, the population will have fallen to approximately 17.3-19.7 million,

approximately 73.6%-83.6% of the population in 2016.

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Trends in population of broad age groups

Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.

The proportion of people aged 15-64 years has peaked in 2012 and began to fall in 2013.

The proportion of old-age population will exceed that of young-age population in 2017 and continue to rise.

In comparison with 2016, the total population in 2060 will be reduced by 21.0%, with the population of children and those in their prime years falling by 43.4% and 44.2%, and the elderly population increased by 131.0%.

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Projected change in population, 2016-2060 By 2060, Taiwan's population will decrease by 4.9 million people. Among these, the number of those aged 0-14 will decrease by 1.4 million,

the number of those between 15-64 by 7.6 million, and the number of those aged 65 and over will increase by 4.1 million.

Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.

Speed of population ageingSocieties in which those 65 years and older account for 7%, 14%, and 20%

are referred to internationally as aging societies, aged societies, and super-aged societies respectively.

Taiwan became an aging Society in 1993, and is projected to become an aged society and super-aged society in 2018 and 2026 respectively.

7Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.

Trends in the dependency ratios

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The total dependent population that every 100 persons of working age needs to support is approximately 36 people in 2016. With the rapid growth of the elderly population, this figure will increase to approximately 93 people by 2060.

Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.

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Fewer young people to take care of the elderly

The total dependent population that every 100 persons of working-age population needs to support is approximately 36 people in 2016. With the rapid growth of the elderly population, this figure will increase to approximately 93 people by 2060.

In 2016, there are approximately 5.6 people in their prime to support one elderly person; by 2060, the number will have fallen to 1.3 people in their prime to support one elderly person

60年Dependency ratio 57.3%

Potential support ratio 14.8

1980

150年Dependency ratio 92.9%

Potential support ratio 1.3

2060

105年Dependency ratio 36.2%

Potential support ratio 5.6

2016

Population pyramidThe 2016 population pyramid is lantern-shaped, being small at the upper

and lower ends and large in the middle, indicating a plentiful labor supply.The 2060 population pyramid takes the shape of an inverted bell, being wide

at the top and narrow at the bottom, indicating a heavier burden on society.

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Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.

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Trends in total fertility rates

Sources: Taiwan (Republic of China) - “Statistical Yearbook of Interior”. Japan - National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Korea - National Statistical Office. Singapore - Singapore Department of Statistics. Hong Kong - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

In general, Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong have observed upturn of the fertility rates.

In response to a "year of the dragon" (traditionally considered a good year for having children), Taiwan's fertility rate grew slightly in 2012. The future trend remains to be seen.

Proportion of population aged 65 and over

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Sources: Republic of China - This report. Japan - National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Korea - National Statistical Office. United Stated - US Census Bureau. United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy - Eurostat.

From 1960 to 2015, the proportion of the elderly in Taiwan has been similar to that of Korea, and less than that in the other countries listed in the graph.

In 2060, the proportion of the elderly in Taiwan, Japan, and Korea will be higher than that in the other countries listed in the graph.

Compared with other countries, the proportion of population aged 15-64 years is still at its peak in Taiwan and Korea.

In the future, the proportion of working age population in Taiwan will fall drastically and will be lower than that in the most countries around 2045, and along with Japan and Korea will be lower than most countries in 2060.

Proportion of working-age population

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Sources: Republic of China - This report. Japan - National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Korea - National Statistical Office. United Stated - US Census Bureau. United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy- Eurostat.

Median age of populationIn 2015, the median age of the population of Taiwan was 39.9 years old,

ranking seventh among the countries listed in the graph.In 2060, the median age of the population of Taiwan will be 57.0 years old,

higher than other countries except for Korea listed in the graph.

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Sources: Republic of China - This report. Japan - National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Korea - National Statistical Office. United Stated - US Census Bureau. United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy - Eurostat.

Note: 1. The data for Japan is average age.

(Projected figures)

Japan1Germany Italy France UnitedKingdom

Korea Republic of China

USA

Policy Implications

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Declining Population&

Ageing PopulationEducational Resources

Labor Market Ageing Society StatusComing Early

Perfect Environment for Raising Children

Slowdown

Influence

Influence

Influence

Accelerate

Accelerate

Influence

Other Related Policies, such as Industry, Finance, Welfare, Healthcare, National Spatial Development, Housing, and Diverse Society.

Decrease in Birth Rate

Increase in Lifespan