1 経営戦略論 (5) competitiveness of the japanese, korean and chinese automobile industries...

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1 経経経経経 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University [email protected]

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Page 1: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

1

経営戦略論 (5)

Competitiveness ofthe Japanese, Korean and Chinese

Automobile Industries

 Hiromi SHIOJI

Kyoto [email protected]

Page 2: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

2

Structure of Presentation

1. Purpose and Method

2. Comparison of the Japanese, Koran and Chinese Automobile Industries

3. Implication of Differences between Producer Country Base and Maker Base

Page 3: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

3

Structure of Presentation

1. Purpose and Method

2. Comparison of the Japanese, Koran and Chinese Automobile Industries

3. Implication of Differences between Producer Country Base and Maker Base

Page 4: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

4

Purpose

▷ We aim to analyse the international competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean, and Chinese automobile industries.

▷ Analysing the production, sales, and import/export statistics in detail, we clarify the competitiveness of each country and the differences among them.

Page 5: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

5

International Competitiveness

▷ we analyse not only domestic production in each country but also overseas production by domestic automaker.

▷ For example, as for Korea, we analyse the production not only in Korea, at 4.52 million vehicles, but also in the global market, at 7.57 million vehicles, including the number produced overseas.

Page 6: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

6

Definition on Automaker’s Nationality

A domestic automaker is defined as follows:

1. World headquarters must be located in its own country.

2. Main operations such as development and production must be located locally.

3. It has its own vehicle brands and distributes most of them by itself.

4. The majority of its stock is not held by a foreign automaker.

Page 7: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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PCB and MB

▷ In order to clarify the differences among three countries, we use two bases by which to evaluate a country’s production number.

Producer Country Base [PCB]

Maker Base [MB]

Page 8: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

8

Producer Country Base [PCB]

▷ When we consider ‘how many vehicles a country produces’, we count the number of vehicles produced in its country, ignoring the automaker, whether domestic (Hyundai Motor) or foreign (GM Korea).

▷ We include the number of the vehicles produced by both domestic and foreign makers. ▷ We don’ include the number that a domestic maker (Hyundai) produces in a foreign country (US); its production is included in that of the foreign country (US).

Page 9: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

9

PCB

▷ The most simple definition of PCB is:

How many vehicles are produced in a country.

Page 10: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

1010

Figure 1. Producer Country Base and Maker Base

Domestic Productionby Foreign

MakerDPFM

DomesticProductionby DomesticMaker

Overseas Production

by Domestic Maker

OPDM

Maker Base

Producer Country Base

Page 11: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

11

Maker Base [MB]

▷ The production of a country is the aggregate number of vehicles that domestic makers produced globally, not only in home country but also in foreign countries. ▷ In the case of Japan, Toyota Motor produced 9.87 million vehicles globally in 2013, and Nissan Motors produced 4.72 million. ▷ Aggregating these numbers of all Japanese domestic makers, we can get the Japanese MB: 25.50 million in 2013. It consists of a domestic production of 9.45 million and an overseas production of 16.05 million.

Page 12: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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▷ These numbers exclude the production in Japan by the foreign makers such as Mitsubishi Fuso (subsidiary of Daimler, German) and UD Trucks (subsidiary of Volvo Truck, France).

Page 13: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

13

MB

▷ The most simple definition of MB is:

How many vehicles are globally produced by domestic makers of a country.

Page 14: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

1414

Figure 1. Producer Country Base and Maker Base

Domestic Productionby Foreign

MakerDPFM

DomesticProductionby DomesticMaker

Overseas Production

by Domestic Maker

OPDM

Maker Base

Producer Country Base

Page 15: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

15

Numerical Index of Global Competitiveness

▷ We use various kinds of figures as the numerical index of a country’s global competitiveness. ▷ Among these figures, we give top priority to the MB numbers.

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▷ However, in the case of China, there might be bias due to the huge domestic market. Chinese domestic makers have huge production and sales number, but almost all of which are produced and sold in China. Chinese domestic makers could export 1.20 million vehicles and develop only their overseas production of less than 0.3 million vehicles in 2013. ▷ Chinese domestic makers don’t have global competitiveness. However MB seems to be relatively big.

Page 17: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

17

Structure of Presentation

1. Purpose and Method

2. Comparison of the Japanese, Koran and Chinese Automobile Industries

3. Implication of Differences between Producer Country Base and Maker Base

Page 18: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

1818

Figure 2. China

[DPFM] Shanghai VW (German)

Beijing Hyundai(Korea)

TFTM (Japan)

Shanghai GM(USA)

11.09 million

Chery, Geely [DPDM]

BYD, FAW 11.03 million

SAIC, Dongfeng

Producer Country Base

[PCB] 22.12 million in 2013

Domestic Production in China

[OPDM]

0.3 million

including Volvo, MG-Motor

Maker Base [MB]

11.33 million in 2013

Global Production by Chinese

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China

▷ We consider joint company as foreign maker.

▷ Though Shanghai VW is a joint company by Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation and VW.

▷ However, in terms of product development and production management etc., VW has strong leadership. Product line are almost same as VW. Therefore we consider Shanghai VW as Germany maker.

▷ Foreign makers occupy 50.1% of the total production in China.

Page 20: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

2020

Figure 3. Korea

[DPFM] GM Korea (USA)

Renault Samsung(France)

Tata Commercial(India)

SsangYong (India)

1.06 million

Hyundai/Kia [DPDM]

Daewoo Bus

3.46 million

Domestic Production in Korea

Producer Country Base [PCB] 4.52 million in 2013

Hyundai/Kia Subsidiaries

in China, USA, India, Turkey, Russia, Czech,

Slovakia [OPDM] 4.11 million

Global Production by KoreanMaker Base [MB]

7.57 million in 2013

Page 21: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

21

Korea

▷ OPDM is bigger than DPFM. ▷ MB is bigger than PCB.

Page 22: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

2222

Figure 4. Japan

[DPFM]

Mitsubishi Fuso(German) 0.09 million

UD Trucks(France) 0.02 million

Toyota, Nissan [DPDM]

Honda, Mazda

Mitsubishi, Subaru

Daihatsu, Hino

Isuzu, Suzuki 9.44 million

Producer Country Base [PCB] 9.55 million in 2013

[OPDM]

At around 40 countries

16.06 million

(overseas)

Maker Base [MB]

25.50 million in 2013

Page 23: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Japan

▷ OPDM is 1.7 times bigger than DPDM. ▷ MB is 2.7 times bigger than PCB.

Page 24: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Structure of Presentation

1. Purpose and Method

2. Comparison of the Japanese, Koran and Chinese Automobile Industries

3. Implication of Differences between Producer Country Base and Maker Base

Page 25: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

2525

CountryProducer Country

BaseMaker Base

 

Production(10 k)

Ranking Production(10 k)

Ranking

China 2212 1 1133 4USA 1105 2 1392 2

Japan 955 3 2550 1German 565 4 1308 3Korea 452 5 757 5India 388 6 179 8Brazil 345 7 - -

Mexico 307 8 - -Canada 238 9 - -Russia 218 10 67 9

Top10 subtotal 6785 80.5 % 7386 87.6 %Global total 8429 100.0 8429 100.0

Table 1. Production by PCB and MB in 2013

C + J+ K36.19 million

42.9 %

Page 26: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

2626

CountryProducer Country

BaseMaker Base

 

Production(10 k)

Ranking Production(10 k)

Ranking

China 2212 1 1133 4USA 1105 2 1392 2

Japan 955 3 2550 1German 565 4 1308 3Korea 452 5 757 5India 388 6 179 8Brazil 345 7 - -

Mexico 307 8 - -Canada 238 9 - -Russia 218 10 67 9

Top10 subtotal 6785 80.5 %Global total 8429 100.0 8429 100.0

Table 1. Production by PCB and MB in 2013

Page 27: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

27

Table 2. Producer Country Base and Maker Base in UK in 2005

Red : UK maker

Black : non UK

MB: 17,527

PCB:

1,803,109

Rank Brand Nationality ( Parent Company Name ) Production

1 Nissan Japan (Nissan ) 315,297

2 Toyota Japan (Toyota ) 264,279

3 BMW German (BMW) 200,163

4 Vauxhall USA (GM) 189,398

5 Land Rover USA (Ford) 187,626

6 Honda Japan (Honda ) 186,984

7 Peugeot France (Peugeot) 129,618

8 IBC USA (GM), Japan(Isuzu ) 90,456

9 Jaguar USA (Ford) 84,040

10 Ford USA (Ford) 71,885

11 MG Rover China (Nanjin ) 29,141

12 Leyland Trucks USA (Packer) 16,277

13 LDV UK 10,175

14 Bentley German (VW) 9,560

15 Lotus Malaysia ( Proton ) 5,053

16 Aston Martin USA (Ford ) 4,461

17 London Taxi International. UK 2,490

18 Alex sander Denis UK 985

19 Denis Eagle UK 900

20 Rolls-Royce German (BMW) 692

21 Mercedes McLaren German (DCM) 652

22 Obtarl UK 462

23 Cater Hamm UK 423

24 Metro Cab UK 0

Others UK 2,092

Producer Country Base 1,803,109

Maker Base 17,527

Page 28: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

2828

CountryProducer Country

BaseMaker Base

 

Production(10 k)

Ranking Production(10 k)

Ranking

Japan 2550 1USA 1392 2

German 1308 3China 1133 4Korea 757 5France 510 6

Italy 435 7India 179 8

Russia 73 9Malaysia 14 10

Top 10 subtotal

8351 99.1 %

Global total 8429 100.0

Table 3. Production by MB in 2013

Page 29: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

2929

CountryProducer Country

BaseMaker Base

 

Production(10 k)

Ranking Production(10 k)

Ranking

China 2212 1 1133 4USA 1105 2 1392 2

Japan 955 3 2550 1German 565 4 1308 3Korea 452 5 757 5India 388 6 179 8Brazil 345 7 - -

Mexico 307 8 - -Canada 238 9 - -Russia 218 10 67 9

Top10 subtotal 6785 80.5 %Global total 8429 100.0 8429 100.0

Table 1. Production by PCB and MB in 2013

Page 30: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

3030

Why is MB smaller than PCB?

Domestic Productionby Foreign

MakerDPFM

DomesticProductionby DomesticMaker

PCB > MB ← OPDM < DPFM 190 countries, including BRICs

Oversea Production

by Domestic Maker

OPDM

MB

PCB

Page 31: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

31

Why is MB smaller than PCB?

▷ The reason is that domestic makers do not have a major share of each country’s PCB production because foreign automakers build their assembly plants and have a pretty big production share.

▷ On the other hand, domestic makers do not have an overseas production base. Even if they do have factories in foreign countries, their number is too small to compensate for the loss from foreign makers’ production in these countries.

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32

Why is MB smaller than PCB?

▷ In other words, when Overseas Production by Domestic Makers [OPDM] is smaller than Domestic Production by Foreign Makers [DPFM], the MB production is smaller than the PCB production.

Page 33: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

33

Different Types in terms of the Gapbetween PCB and MB(in the case of PCB>MB)

1.Expanding Type Russia India

Gap has been expanding. Because ・・・In the future, will MB be zero in Russia?

2. Zero MB Types Brazil Mexico CanadaMB has remained almost zero.

3. Shrinking Type China

Gap has been shrinking. Because ・・・In the future, will MB be bigger than PCB?

Page 34: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

3434

CountryProducer Country

BaseMaker Base

 

2010(10k)

2010Ranking

2010(10k)

2010Ranking

China 2212 1 1133 4USA 1105 2 1392 2

Japan 955 3 2550 1German 565 4 1308 3Korea 452 5 757 5India 388 6 179 8Brazil 345 7 - -

Mexico 307 8 - -Canada 238 9 - -Russia 218 10 67 9

Top10 subtotal 6785 80.5 % 7386 87.6 %Global total 8429 100.0 8429 100.0

Table 1. Production by PCB and MB

Page 35: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

3535

Why is MB higher than PCB?

Domestic Productionby Foreign

MakerDPFM

DomesticProductionby DomesticMaker

PCB < MB ← OPDM > DPFM

6 countries including Japan and Korea

Overseas Production

by Domestic Maker

OPDM

Maker Base

Producer Country Base

Page 36: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

36

Why is MB bigger than PCB?

▷ In these countries, Domestic Production by Domestic makers accounts for a large share of PCB production.

▷ In addition, Overseas production by Domestic makers is so large that they can compensate for the vehicles produced by foreign automakers in their home countries.

▷ In other words, when Overseas Production by Domestic Makers is bigger than Domestic Production by Foreign Makers, the MB production is bigger than the PCB production.

Page 37: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

37

Different Types in terms of the Gapbetween PCB and MB(in the case of PCB<MB)

1.Expanding Type

Japan German Korea France Italy

Gap has been expanding.

Because PCB has decreased or stagnated, on the other hand MB has been increasing.

2. Shrinking Type USA

Gap has been shrinking gradually.

Because MB has been decreasing gradually, PCB has remained around 11-12 million level. vehicles.

Page 38: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

38

Export and Import in China in 2013

1.Export (unit: million)

Total number 1.05 Car 0.45 Commercial 0.6

Unit price Total $13,263 Car $8,400 Commercial $16,968

2. Import

Total number 1.2 Car 0.95 Commercial 0.25

Unit price Total $40,945 Car $43,579 Commercial $30,632

Page 39: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

3939

Country

Export

2010(10k)

Ranking

Export Ratio(%)

Ranking

Japan 484 1 50.3 6France 480 2 234.1 1German 448 3 75.8 4Korea 277 4 74.9 5Spain 208 5 87.0 2

Mexico 192 6 81.7 3USA 111 8 14.3 -Brazil 77 9 21.1 -India 58 10 16.4 -China 55 11 3.0 -

Total top 10 2390 32.7Export Ratio : Export ÷ Production

Table 3 . Export

Page 40: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

4040

CountryExportSurplus

(10k)Ranking

TradeSpecialization

IndexRanking

Japan 346 1 0.915 2

France 267 2 0.525 3

Korea 208 3 0.937 1

Spain 118 4 0.371 4

German 112 5 0.185 -

Trade Specialization Index = (Export - Import)÷(Ex +Im) (In terms of the number of the vehicles)

Table 4 Export Surplus and Trade Specialization Index

Page 41: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

4141

CountryImport Surplus(10k)

RankingTrade

SpecializationIndex

USA 458 1 - 0.674

Italy 116 2 - 0.604

UK 87 3 - 0.258

Russia 49 4 - 0.803

China 26 - - 0.191

China is - 0.57 in terms of monetary amounts.

Average unit price of export : around USD 10,000.

of import : around USD 30,000.

Table 5 . Import Surplus and Trade Specialization Index

Page 42: 1 経営戦略論 (5) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp shioji@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp

42

Penetration into developed countriessuch as US

▷ Japanese and Korean makers have high market share in US market.

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4343

Foreign Maker Sales (10 k) Ranking

Toyota 176 1Honda 123 2Nissan 91 3

Hyundai/Kia 89 4VW 36 5

BMW 27 6Subaru 26 7Daimler 23 8Mazda 23 9

Mitsubishi 6 10

Jaguar/L.Rover 5 11

Porsche 3 12

Suzuki 2 13

Volvo 2 14

Table 6. Sales by maker in USA in 2010

Note: Only Foreigner, Excluding Detroit Three

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4444

Maker Sales(10 k)

Share( % )

General Motors 221 19.1

Ford Motor 196 16.9

Chrysler 109 9.4

Detroit Three subtotal 526 45.4

Japanese and Korean subtotal

536 46.2

Japanese subtotal 447 38.7

Korean subtotal 89 7.7

European subtotal 89 7.7

Total 1159 100.0

Table 7. Market Share in USA in 2010

China 0.5

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45

Penetration into developed countries such as US by Chinese

▷ Chinese makers had attempted to enter US market since 2004. However they almost gave up it, because of quality and safety issue mainly. ▷ Penetration by Chinese maker have stagnated

for more than 10 years.

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46

Maker TotalSales

US Production

Import

Toyota 208 147 (71%) 61 (29%)

Honda 142 129 (91%) 14 ( 9%)

Hyundai/Kia 126 78 (62%) 48 (38%)

Nissan 114 77 (68%) 37 (32%)

VW 62 33 (53%) 29 (47%)

Table 8. Sales (US Production and Import) in USA (2013)

[ ten thousand ]

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47

Penetration into developing countries such as BRICs

▷ Japanese and Korean makers have high market share in developing countries such as BRICs.

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4848

Figure 5. Comparison of Automobile Sales in Developed and Developing Countries

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4949

Market Brazil Russia India China BRICs total

MakerSales(10 k)

Share( % )

Sales(10 k)

Share( % )

Sales(10 k)

Share( % )

Sales(10 k)

Share( % )

Sales(10 k)

Share( % )

1 GM 66 19 16 8 11 4 225 12 318 12

2 VW 74 21 13 6 6 2 187 10 280 10

3 Hyundai Kia

17 5 19 9 36 12 104 6 175 7

4 Suzuki 0.4 0.1 3 1 107 35 28 2 137 5

5 RenaultNissan

20 6 18 9 1 0.2 68 4 107 4

6 Toyota 10 3 9 4 7 3 78 4 105 4

7 Ford 36 10 9 4 8 3 4 2 89 3

8 Honda 13 4 2 1 6 2 67 4 88 3

Table 9. Sales and Market Share in BRICs by Maker in 2010

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Market Brazil Russia India China BRICs total

Maker’sCountry

Sales(10k)

Share( % )

Sales(10k)

Share( % )

Sales(10k)

Share( % )

Sales(10k)

Share( % )

Sales(10k)

Share( % )

1 Japan 37 10 31 15 124 41 275 15 467 17

2 USA 102 29 25 12 19 6 260 14 407 153 German 88 25 18 8 7 2 198 11 310 124 Korea 17 5 19 9 36 12 104 6 175 75 France 34 9 15 7 - - 37 2 86 36 Italy 79 22 3 1 2 1 4 0.2 88 3

Table 10. Sales and Market Share by Country in BRICs

2750 100

Japanese and Korean have 24 % in BRICs market.

Including Chinese domestic makers, three countries share is 59 % .

(Japan 17 % Korea 7 % China 35 % )

In China, Chinese domestic makers have 9.7 million out of 18.26 million, 53 % .

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Penetration into developing countries such as BRICs by Chinese

▷ Sales by Chinese in BRICs in 2010 Brazil less than 30 thousand Russia around 90 thousand India less than 10 thousand China 9.7 million

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Penetration into developing countries by Chinese

▷ However, Total export number by Chinese makers was around 1 million in 2012. ▷ This number is not small. ▷ At present Chinese are penetrating into

developing countries where price and quality levels resemble to that in China. ▷ Chinese penetrate mainly the countries that

Japan/Korea/Europe/US makers ⅰ) do not put importance to.ⅱ) are prohibited or restricted to enter.

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Countries that China has more than 20 % share in new truck market of each country.

Bangladesh Sli LankaKazakhstan KyrgyzMaldives TadzhikistanIraq AngolaLaos BurundiNorth Korea ChadMyanmar LibyaSyria

Most of these countries are minimal market

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Export from China by Maker in 2007

Ranking

Maker Export

(ten thousand)

Average Unit Price

(USD)

1 Chery 119,891 7,123

2 Honda (China) 43,124 11,080

3 Harbin 34,569 2,992

4 Geely 29,067 6,193

5 FAW 28,823 9,966

6 Great Wall 28,519 9,916

7 Beijing Foton 26,795 10,198

8 Dongfen 24,993 27,390

9 China Heavy Auto 21,347 23,899

10 上海 GM 東岳汽車 20,859 7,335

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Penetration into developing countries by Chinese

▷ In African countries, Chinese auto makers’ exports are facilitated by way of the tied aid to local government by Chinese government.

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Country2010 Domestic Sales

Domestic Sales (10k)

Ranking Share( % )

China 1806 1 26.0

USA 1177 2 17.0

Japan 496 3 7.1

Brazil 357 4 5.1

German 320 5 4.6

India 303 6 4.4

UK 229 8 3.3

France 271 7 3.9

Italy 217 9 3.1

Russia 211 10 3.0

Top10 subtotal 5387 72.8

Korea 154 12 2.1

Global total 7403 100.0

Table 11. Domestic Sales in 2010

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Domestic Sales in China

▷ One of the preconditions for automakers to expand global sales is that they have their own sufficiently large domestic market and, at the same time, they command a relatively high market share there.

▷ China’s domestic sales in 2010, at 18.06 million vehicles, ranked first in the world.

▷ According to the above perspective, however, Chinese domestic makers account for only 53 % of its domestic production as seen before. The other 47 % are supplied by foreign makers who assemble and sell vehicles in China.

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Domestic Sales in Japan

▷ Domestic sales in Japan are the third largest, at 4.96 million vehicles.

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Domestic Sales in Korea

▷ Domestic sales in Korea are not so small at 1.56 million. Korean domestic makers account for more than 80 % of domestic sales. They have acquired high market share in relatively large domestic markets. This is one of the preconditions for expanding global sales.

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Country Use in Operation (10k)

Ranking Share( % )

USA 24856 1 26.9

Japan 7381 2 8.4

China 6118 3 6.3

German 4463 4 5.5

Italy 4132 5 4.3

Russia 3951 6 3.5

France 3749 7 4.0

UK 3522 8 3.9

Brazil 2964 9 2.6

Spain 2763 10 2.8

Top10 total 63899 65.4

Korea 1733 14 1.7

Global total 96526 100.0

Table 12. Use in Operation in 2010

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Use in Operation in Japan

▷ It is not well known that Japan is the second largest country in terms of vehicle population. Japan has 73.8 million vehicles in use because of its large population (127.5 million) and high income level (GDP per capita of USD 42,820).

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Use in Operation in China

▷ In 2013 vehicle population in China reached to 100 million. China exceeded Japan.

▷ Because, though the income level was quite low at USD 5,400, the population was overwhelmingly large at 1.35 billion people.

▷ In the future also, its vehicle population will continue to increase with the economic growth of China.

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Used in Operation in Korea

▷ Regarding its size, Korea’s population (50.0 million) is bigger than Spain but smaller than UK or France. However, it comes near the Western European standard size. Based on this population size, Korea will be able to expand its vehicle population to the Western European standard size in the future.

▷ However its income level is low at present, and the Korean vehicle population (17.3 million) remains at around half that of Western European countries.

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6464

Country Use in OperationPer 1000 persons

(vehicle)

Population(million)

GDP per capita(US dollar)

USA 790 314.7 47284

Japan 580 127.2 42820

China 65 1345.8 4382

German 543 82.2 40631

Italy 690 59.9 34059

Russia 280 140.9 10437

France 602 62.3 41019

UK 572 61.6 36120

Brazil 153 193.7 10816

Spain 615 44.9 30639

Top10 total 263 2433.2

Korea 359 48.3 20591

Global total 141 6829.0

Table 13. Diffusion ratio of Automobile in 2010

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Diffusion Ratio and Vehicle Population in China

▷ On the projection of the vehicle population in China, if the GDP per capita reaches USD10,000, the vehicle population will reach a level of around 200 vehicles per 1000 persons.

▷ We project this from Table 13, which shows that Russia (USD10,400) has 280 vehicles per 1000 persons and Brazil (USD10,800) 153 vehicles per 1000 persons.

▷ If China reaches the level of 200 vehicles per 1000 persons, the vehicle population will be 300 million based on a population of 1.5 billion.

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Country Import (10k)

Ranking Import Ratio(%)

USA 569 1 53.7

German 246 2 60.7

UK 212 3 85.1

Italy 154 4 65.3

France 121 5 44.5

China 81 6 4.5

Russia 55 7 26.3

Brazil 49 8 13.8

Japan 16 - 3.5

India - - -Subtotal 1503

Korea 7 - 4.8

Table 14. Import and Import Ratio in 2010

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Import and Import Ratio in China

▷ We can recognize common feature of the three countries; their extremely low import ratio.

▷ China’s is 4.5 % , Japan’s 3.5 % , and Korea’s 4.8 % . Automakers who are located domestically account for a sales share of more than 95 % .

▷ Why, then, are the import ratios low? The reasons are completely different between China and Japan/Korea. ▷ In China, due to the prohibitive duty and the restriction on the automobile import in the 1990s. After its entry into the WTO in 2001, the Chinese government reduced the tariff to 25 % . However, this is still high compared to other countries. China’s 25 per cent tariff acts as a substantial import barrier.

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Import and Import Ratio in Japan and Korea

▷ However, the reasons for Japan and Korea are completely different from those for China. ▷ In both countries, compact vehicles have

pretty big share. In this compact vehicle market, however, foreign makers can not compete with domestic maker. Therefor foreign makers can not acquire a large market share in Japan and Korea, which is why import ratios remain low in these countries. ▷ Both Japanese and Korean can acquire a high market share in each country and then build one of the preconditions for global competitiveness.

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Conclusion

1.From the viewpoint of global competitiveness, Japan and Korea have high competitiveness, while China does not.

2.Japan and Korea are highly competitive globally in export and oversea production

3.China is the biggest country in terms of PCB. ▷ However the expansion of domestic

production is mostly dependent on domestic demand.

▷ 50 % of domestic production is occupied by foreigner.

▷ They are very weak in terms of exports and overseas production.

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4. The global competitiveness of Japanese and Korean automobile industries has resulted from; ▷ Large size of their home market and their high market share there; both countries have a relatively low percentage of imports in their home market. ▷ The number of vehicles sold and the total vehicle population in Japanese and Korean home markets are as large as European major countries. Japanese and Korean automakers use their domestic market as a springboard to penetrate the global market.

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▷ Moreover, Japanese and Korean are very strong in the area of exports. Therefore, with high domestic sales, accompanied by a large volume of exports, they can enjoy economies of scale. ▷ Japanese and Korean automakers secure sales and production in USA and BRICs

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Country

Producer CountryBase

Maker Base

 

Production(10 k)

Ranking Production(10 k)

Ranking

China 2212 1 1133 4USA 1105 2 1392 2

Japan 955 3 2550 1German 565 4 1308 3Korea 452 5 757 5India 388 6 179 8Brazil 345 7 - -

Mexico 307 8 - -Canada 238 9 - -Russia 218 10 67 9

J/K/C subtotal 3619 42.9 % 4440 52.7 %Global total 8429 100.0 8429 100.0

Table 16. East Asian Production in 2010

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Implication

1. PCB-MB Analysis can be applied into other industries.

▷ Motorcycle industry in Japan・ MB is huge, but PCB is negligible.

▷ Steel Industry in Japan・ MB is bigger than PCB, but its gap is small.

2. Concept of Competitiveness of a Nation ▷ Primitive question to Porter M.(1990)Competitive

Advantage of Nations. Isn’t it based solely on PCB? ▷ Hollowing of the Industry in each country can

be considered as a gap of PCB/MB

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3. On the Nation’s Wealth ▷ Standpoint of understanding of the meaning

of the differences in GDP, GNP and NNI.

4. Reconsideration of self-sufficiency ratio ▷ Expansive and comprehensive interpretation

of “self-sufficient” of natural sources or agricultural produce etc.・ ex. Long term and stable relationship for more than 40 years with Australian mining companies by Japanese steel companies and general trading companies.・ Production of agricultural produce in China by Chinese farmers organized by Japanese general trading companies.

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Reference

塩地洋編著 (2008) 『東アジア優位産業の競争力』ミネルヴァ書房 .塩地洋 (2012) 「日韓中自動車産業の国際競争力」『産業学会研究年報』第 27号塩地洋 (2013) 「日韓中自動車産業の国際競争力」 ( 韓国語 ), 朴成柱・朴永烈・柳町功編著『韓日産業競争力比較』韓国学術情報 , 所収 ,SHIOJI, H.(2013) Competitiveness of the Japanese, Korean, and Chinese Automobile Industries, The Kyoto Economics Review, No.170.

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StatisticsAutomotive NewsAutomotive News, Market Data Book, YearlyWARD’S, World Motor Vehicle DataWARD’S American Automotive Manufacturers Association, Facts Figures, YearlyANFIA, Auto in CifireKAICA, Statistical Data on Korean IndustrySMMT, Motor Industry of Great BritainVDA, Tatsachen und ZahlenOrganisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobileshttp://www.marklines.com/ja/vehicle_production/search_country

日本自動車工業会『世界自動車統計年報』各年版日本自動車工業会『日本の自動車工業』フォーイン『世界自動車メーカー年鑑』各年版フォーイン『アジア自動車産業』各年版フォーイン『中国自動車調査月報』