100% renewable energy strategy for cape verde
TRANSCRIPT
MFM Master Plan Cape Verde 100% renewable energy Mak Đukan International Master in Material Flow Management Environmental Campus Birkenfeld, 2012
The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too
low and we reach it
Michelangelo
650km from Senegal
QUICK FACTS ü Population 515 000, low density ü Area 7500 * smaller than Africa ü 10 islands of volcanic origin ü Semi desert climate
NATURAL RESOURCES ü 1800 – 2200 kWh/m2/year average ü 8 – 5 m/s average wind ü 11% arable land ü Water shortages
ECONOMY ü GDP per capita $US 3800 ü Agriculture 8.5% ü Industry 16% ü Services 75.5%
ü Export/import 12% ü Unemployment 21%
Material Flow Analysis
Dependance on fossil fuels
95% electricity from oil in 2010
Increase in electricity price
Electra increase in tariff 30%
€/kWh twice the EU price
Decrease in purchas. power
Renewable energy
Energy efficiency
GDP growth decline
Operational inefficiency
Power losses are 15% in Santiago
Lack of price adjustment
Government subsidy of
$US4.4 mil/a
Business restructuring
Inability to reinvest
Electricity network gets
worse
Blackouts effect business
ELECTRA is BUST !!!
Huge hidden costs
Electricity demand rises
Energy storage
Grid improvement Financing Renewable
energy
Energy efficiency
Business restructuring
Regional MFM solutions
Σ 100% RES
Participation
KNOWLEDGE GAPS ü Focus on macro generation ü Energy efficiency not a
important topic ü Lack of ground work and
field data collection ü Waste treated only as an
energy resource ü . . .
Conventional approach How do you power a village in the middle of nowhere?
Regional MFM approach How do you create added value in a village in the middle of nowhere?
Demand analysis
Energy flows
Material
flows
Potential analysis
Micro potential
Macro potential
Efficiency improvement Solar thermal and PV Micro wind turbine Biogas for cooking Efficient wood cookstoves Land management
What can we “squeeze out”
of the existing infrastructure?
What new infrastructure do
we need?
What are the hidden
potentials?
Praia, Santiago
PRIORITIZE
Energy consumption
Waste
Material consumption
Santiago
Population
CLASIFY
Urban
Rural
Tourist
Industrial
IDENTIFY HOTSPOTS
LINK MATERIAL and
ENERGY FLOWS
Jatropha plantation
Nutrient recovery
Sludge extraction Biogas
Incineration
Jatropha Biodiesel
Terra Preta
Algae growth
Waste water from Praia Transport
Heat/cool and electricity
Electricity
Land management
Algae Biodiesel
Algae Biodiesel
Jatropha Biodiesel Biogas Incineration Terra Preta
Economic FeasabilityTechnological feasabilitySocial Acceptance Job creationGHG reduction
Low
Medium
High
ANALYZE ALTERNATIVES
STUDY IN DETAIL
Who are the stakeholders?
Government
NGO
RE Cluster
Inhabitants
Tourist industry
Electra
International donors
Technology developer
Technology provider
Power
Interest
Cape Verde 100% Renewable by 2020
100% Renewable Energy by 2020
Energy Storage
Grid Improvement
MFM Optimization
CORE ISSUES
Increase energy efficiency
Decrease distribution losses
Ensure reliable power supply
2012 2020 2015
Creating initial conditions
Demonstration
100% renewable
PROJECT STAGES
2012 2020 2015
Short term goals
ü Electra business restructuring
ü Facilitate renewable energy projects
ü Ensure financing until 2020
Medium term goals
ü Cape Verde 50% Renewable
ü Decrease technical loss 50%
ü Sao Vincente-Santo Antao-Sao-Nicolau
Long term goals
ü Cape Verde 100% Renewable
ü Decrease technical loss 90%
ü Energy storage 30% final capacity
Study MFM Optimization
ü Micro generation ü Energy efficiency
improvement ü Participation
Implementation
Zero Emission Islands Cluster
Efficiency gain 10 – 20 %
Decrease need for macro generation
Who are the stakeholders?
NGO??
Inhabitants
Technology provider Short term goals
Facilitate renewable energy projects
Promote private sector investment Create framework Self binding target
setting
100% RE in 2020
20% efficiency gain in 2020
50% RE in 2015 RE One Stop Shop
Ministry for renewable energy
RE Think Thank
Feed In Tariff
Tax break
Microfinance
VISION GREEN TOURISM
Green Resorts Standards
Boavista increase in total energy demand
from 9% to 15%
Thermal conductivity limit of building materials
Low E Glass Triple Window Glazing Wall Insulation
Tax breaks according
to performance
Medium term goals
Zero Emission Islands Cluster
Sao Vincente could power the cluster at a lower cost
107.6&
22.7& 6.4&
192.9&
96.6&
54&83&
222&
161&
Sao&Vincente&& Santo&Antao&& Sao&Nicolau&&
Comparison of energy demand, potential and costs !
Demand&(GWh)& PotenCal&(GWh)& LCOE&(EUR/MWh)&&
Source: Gesto Energy
Long term goals
Scale up energy storage capacity
Cape Verde has 70MW of identified potential (22% of demand in 2020)
Natural gas powered
NO GO: Venture capital
investments
Short discharge time Small power rating (up
to 1MW)
Source: EPRI, 2010, p9
Long term goals
Sodium sulfur battery
+ −
Demonstrated in over 190 sites in Japan
Largest instalation 34MW, 245 MWh
89% efficiency
6 hour peak shaving
Source: EPRI, 2010, p23 Costs 2300 – 2500 EUR/
kW
4500 cycles or 12 years
Limited suppliers
Safety issues
Long term goals
Energy storage solutions for Cape Verde
Submarine cables and pumped hydro utilization
Battery systems
Storage of energy in drinking water
Other – comparative analysis needed
Financing
100% Renewable Energy Scenario based on Gesto study
Methodology (by island)
Energy demand in 2020
Current RE production
Gap analysis
Calculate total CAPEX and LCOE by island
Derive figure for EUR/kWh
46%$
38%$
14%$
2%$
Source in 100% Renewable !
Wind$$
Solar$
Hydro$$
Waste$$
Macro generation of 670 GWh in 2020
Main findings
EUR 625 million for CAPEX and O&M
LCOE in 2020 0.13 EUR/kWh
MFM Optimization, submarine cables, grid
and energy storage (except hydro) not
included
Source: Gesto Energy
0"
100"
200"
300"
400"
500"
600"
700"
800"
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016" 2017" 2018" 2019" 2020" 2021"
GWh!
Comparison of BAU and Energy efficiency 20% scenario!
Demand"(GWh)" RE"Produc>on"(GWh)" Demand"EF"20%"(GWh)"
167 Mil EUR of savings Diesel LCOE=250 EUR/MWh
33 Mil EUR savings from MFM Optimization
0"
50"
100"
150"
200"
250"
300"
San*ago"" Boavista"" Sao"Vincente" Sal" Fogo" Maio" Sao"Nicolau"" Santo"Antao" Brava""
Thousand ! Comparison of energy production, CAPEX and LCOE by island in 2020!
Energy"(GWh)" Capital"expenditure"(EUR)"
Levelized"Cost"of"Electricity"(EUR/MWh)" Linear"(Levelized"Cost"of"Electricity"(EUR/MWh))"
Lower the CAPEX, higher the production costs
0"
50"
100"
150"
200"
250"
300"
Boavista"" Brava"" Maio" Sao"Nicolau"" Sal" Fogo" Santo"Antao" Sao"Vincente" San;ago""
Thousand ! Comparison of population and LCOE by island!
Levelized"Cost"of"Electricity"EUR/MWh"" Popula;on""Thousand"" Linear"(Levelized"Cost"of"Electricity"EUR/MWh")"
Higher the population, lower the production costs
Centralization of energy production could lead to
costs savings
Final remarks. . .
Focus on MFM Optimization/Microgeneration
Energy grid improvements
Innovative energy storage solutions
Centralize macro energy production
Realistic goal setting??
Work in progress . . .
Innovative financing
Refine kWh/EUR figure
Determine best storage solutions
Added value analysis