1. 120131119 2. 2 3. 2012 GDP 71.3 GDP 44.6 2013 1 47.8 ECFA ECFAECFA3 4. 1. 2002.11(TheFramework Agreement of Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement,CECA)2010(2015)2. 2005.12201097%05%3. 2008.3.28 (EPA)93%90%4.FTA(AAZFTA)2009.2.27201020185.FTA2009.8.14201020166.20005 FTAs 2010454 5. Unit: % (of the World)1 2008Population Total GDP Total TradeChina 19.62 7.14 8.33ASEAN 10 8.65 2.42 0.54ASEAN 10+3 30.86 19.20 16.39ASEAN 10+6 46.63 23.10 19.35Source: This study.Note: 1. ASEAN 10+3: ASEAN + China, Japan and Korea2. ASEAN 10+6: ASEAN + China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, and New Zealand5 6. Unit: US$ billion, %2 2008Taiwans ExporttoTaiwans TotalTrade WithTaiwans TotalFDI toChina 99.5 (39.0%) 132.5 (26.7%) 10.7(70.5%)ASEAN 10 38.3 (15.0%) 64.0 (12.9%) 1.4 (9.1%)ASEAN 10+3 164.2 (64.2%) 282.4 (56.9%) 12.4(81.5%)ASEAN 10+6 170.7 (66.8%) 299.5 (60.4%) 12.4(81.7%)Source: This study.Note: 1. ASEAN 10+3: ASEAN + China, Japan and Korea2. ASEAN 10+6: ASEAN + China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand6 7. 2000430Protocol on Trade Negotiations(PTN)Asia Pacific Trade Agreement(APTA)Global System of Trade Preferencesamong Developing Countries (GSTP)Lao People's Democratic Republic ThailandASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)7 8. Protocol on Trade Negotiations(PTN)Asia Pacific Trade Agreement(APTA)Global System of Trade Preferencesamong Developing Countries (GSTP)Lao People's Democratic Republic ThailandASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)New Zealand - Singapore20018 9. 2002Protocol on Trade Negotiations(PTN)Asia Pacific Trade Agreement(APTA)Global System of Trade Preferencesamong Developing Countries (GSTP)Lao People's Democratic Republic ThailandASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)New Zealand - SingaporeJapan - Singapore9 10. 2003Protocol on Trade Negotiations(PTN)Asia Pacific Trade Agreement(APTA)Global System of Trade Preferencesamong Developing Countries (GSTP)Laos - ThailandASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)New Zealand - SingaporeJapan SingaporeSingapore - AustraliaChina - Hong KongChina - Macao10 11. 2004Protocol on Trade Negotiations (PTN)Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA)Global System of Trade Preferencesamong Developing Countries (GSTP)Laos - ThailandASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)New Zealand - SingaporeJapan SingaporeSingapore - AustraliaChina - Hong KongChina - MacaoAFTA - ChinaThailand - Australia11 12. 2005Protocol on Trade Negotiations (PTN)Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA)Global System of Trade Preferencesamong Developing Countries (GSTP)Laos - ThailandASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)New Zealand - SingaporeJapan SingaporeSingapore - AustraliaChina - Hong KongChina - MacaoAFTA - ChinaThailand - AustraliaThailand - New Zealand12 13. 2006Protocol on Trade Negotiations (PTN)Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA)Global System of Trade Preferencesamong Developing Countries (GSTP)Laos - ThailandASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)New Zealand - SingaporeJapan SingaporeSingapore - AustraliaChina - Hong KongChina - MacaoAFTA - ChinaThailand - AustraliaThailand - New ZealandKorea - SingaporeJapan - Malaysia13 14. 2007PTNAPTAGSTPLaos ThailandAFTANew Zealand - SingaporeJapan - SingaporeSingapore -AustraliaChina - Hong KongChina - MacaoAFTA - ChinaThailand - AustraliaThailand - New ZealandKorea - SingaporeJapan MalaysiaTrans - Pacific Strategic EconomicPartnershipJapan - Thailand14 15. 2008PTNAPTAGSTPLaos ThailandAFTANew Zealand - SingaporeJapan - SingaporeSingapore - AustraliaChina - Hong KongChina - MacaoAFTA - ChinaThailand - AustraliaThailand - New ZealandKorea - SingaporeJapan MalaysiaTrans-Pacific Strategic EconomicPartnershipJapan - ThailandAFTA - China(S)Japan - IndonesiaBrunei Darussalam - JapanJapan - Philippines15 16. 2009PTNAPTAGSTPLaos -ThailandAFTANew Zealand -SingaporeJapan - SingaporeSingapore -AustraliaChina - Hong KongChina - MacaoAFTA - ChinaThailand - AustraliaThailand - New ZealandKorea - SingaporeJapan MalaysiaTrans-Pacific Strategic EconomicPartnershipJapan - ThailandAFTA - China(S)Japan - IndonesiaBrunei - JapanJapan - PhilippinesChina - SingaporeChina - New ZealandJapan - Viet NamASEAN - Japan16 17. 2010PTNAPTAGSTPLaos ThailandAFTANew Zealand - SingaporeJapan - SingaporeSingapore -AustraliaChina - Hong KongChina - MacaoAFTA - ChinaThailand - AustraliaThailand - New ZealandKorea - SingaporeJapan MalaysiaTrans-Pacific Strategic EconomicPartnershipJapan - ThailandAFTA - China(S)Japan - IndonesiaBrunei - JapanJapan - PhilippinesChina - SingaporeChina - New ZealandJapan - Viet Nam ASEAN - JapanASEAN - Australia - New Zealand17 18. FTAs()FTAs(1) 2010/8 (ASTEP 2013/11/7 )(2) 2011(ANZTEC2013/7/11 )(3) 2011/11(BIA)(4) 2012/710ppb()2013/4TIFA(5) FTA(6) 2011/5FTA(7) 8TPP18 19. ()FTAs1(TPP)(1)2005(2)(3)201111APECTPPTPPGDPGDP 35.6%(4)(FTAAP)2006APECFTAAP2 (RCEP, Regional ComprehensiveEconomic Partnership)(1)(2)(3)201519 20. 24 20 21. 4()()()2211 22. 22()() ()()()()() 23. GATS1. GATS232. 3. ()4. 5. 6. 24. 80 (40) (15 ) (25)3 24 25. 64 27 28 2737 1/3 WTO1/3WTO1/3WTO WTO25 26. 263 WTO WTO WTO CEPA CEPA CEPA 19 18 18 28 13 37 15 4 4 1 9 1 9 5 23 22 19 37 14 46 20 6455+9 8065+15 27. (service provider)WTO (3-5 ) 27 28. () 28 29. 80 WTO+ 83CEPA 93CEPA ( CEPA (2013/8) ) 21 1729 30. () : , 55%, :, 65% : : (244) :, 51%, , : () 30 31. () : OECD,(10%, 15%, 20% ) :(QDII), 10 : 50% : : 31 32. 4 32.41% 23.86% 36.04% 32.56% 38.54% 7.71% 45.13% 40.19% 20.20% 4.04% 22.00% 19.58% 22.79% 19.29% 24.37% 22.24% 18.82% 11.03% 26.30% 22.55% 9.47% 3.20% 12.34% 9.51% 11.12% 7.02% 14.60% 14.11% 24.79% 24.21% 30.45% 29.74% 9.47% 4.39% 12.55% 9.57% 13.62% 3.92% 17.93% 13.26%12.46% 9.14% 16.25% 13.22% 19.43% 10.71% 23.45% 20.59%2013732 33. 5 % * %*GDP 394,587 97~134 0.025~0.034 3,509,068 123 0.004 1,080 401.81~401.88 37.19~37.20 1,011 91.70~91.78 9.07~9.08 23,539 377~378 1.60~1.61 116,844 93 0.08 20,851 61~63 0.29~0.30 100,528 218 0.2220137*()()()33 34. 6 %1 * %* 6,355.77 34.7~35.14 0.55~0.55 18,741.95 62.19~63.62 0.33~0.34 3,291.19 6.22~6.34 0.19~0.19 84,719.55 134.98~143.16 0.16~0.17 35,707.14 52.18~56.09 0.15~0.16 11,228.22 12.99~14.06 0.12~0.13 24,232.85 22.63~24.55 0.09~0.10 37,154.19 23.11~30.96 0.06~0.08 34,609.75 15.32~20.34 0.04~0.06 36,809.95 12.26~15.88 0.03~0.04 11,586.73 2.03~2.98 0.02~0.03 71,320.98 12.27~15.34 0.02~0.02/ 375,758.27 390.87~428.49 0.10~0.11()201371*()()()34 35. 7 % * ** %** 2,467,274 5,138~5,282 0.21~0.21 2,497,388 2,160~2,350 0.09~0.09 276,875 1,111~1,132 0.4~0.41 509,182 989~1,018 0.19~0.20 608,278 904~944 0.15~0.16 420,412 494~590 0.12~0.14 283,214 209~222 0.07~0.08 97,611 153~155 0.16~0.16 228,401 140~150 0.06~0.07 11,441 70~70 0.61~0.61 5,587 12~12 0.22~0.21 7,405,663 11,380~11,923 0.15~0.16()20137***()()()35 36. 2007, 333; 2012,491 (47.4%)2007, 349; 2012, 429 (22.9%) 2007 GTAP 10.8 10.1 2007 30 2008 250 200 5 100033 2008/76162007 2007 11 2007 GTAP 2013.7.26 2012 71.5200710.86.636 37. (ASTEP,2013/11/7) (ANZTEC,2013/7/11) (TIFA) TPP RCEP 37 38. a. 6184)8)() (33GATS) 38 39. 8 39 20 2 1 0 330 2 1 1 470 3 1 1 580 3 1 2 6120 4 1 2 7130 4 1 3 8180 5 1 4 10270 7 1 5 13280 7 1 6 14330 7 1 7 151( 1)20 2 5017( 2)11131311( 3)( 2)30150172986102542838178(3987) 40. b. 9 1. ( )2. ( )1. 8,000 6 ( )2. 3. ( )12 60 ( )40 41. . 1.99 99 108 982.1 3 2.3. 716 41 42. 1042 () 1. 1- 1 177.0()1- 2 96.5 1- 3 50.0 1- 4 11.6 1- 5 36.4 1- 6 1.4 1- 7 0.7 1- 8 200.0 1- 9 180.0 753.62. 2- 1 33.5 2- 2 120.0 153.53. 3- 1 10.0 3- 2 65.0 75.0 982.1 (365 ) 43. 4350 ( ) 50% 44. ( ?)2009 6 30 ( ?)3 96% ( 44) 45. (49) 50% 2 4,710 1 210 102 5 398 622 6771 ( 45 46. 1. 2. 3. FTAs RCEP TPP 4. 46 47. 47