2015 年 台灣產業發展願景與策略 ( version 1.00 )

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2015 年 台灣產業發展願景與策略 ( version 1.00 ). 詹文男 資訊市場情報中心 財團法人資訊工業策進會 2007.04.24. E-mail: [email protected] http://mic.iii.org.tw. 台灣經濟發展歷程綜覽. 製造導向. 投資導向. 創新導向. 技術密集產業階段. 知識密集產業. 資本密集產業階段. 勞力密集產業階段. 引導國家資源進入民生工業. 投注國家資源改良農業技術. 推動大型國建建立重化基礎. 引導高科技產業發展. 產業技術升級與國際化. 全球競爭 型產業. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 2015 ( version 1.00 )2007.04.24E-mail: [email protected] http://mic.iii.org.tw

  • 19521960197019801990 20002010(d)2006(f)

    Chart2

    12.03

    9.43

    9.63

    8.21

    5.66

    7.48

    6.9

    7.72

    6.31

    6.81

    7.79

    9.37

    12.15

    11.21

    8.94

    10.71

    9.29

    9.14

    11.41

    12.84

    13.3

    12.88

    1.38

    4.94

    13.96

    10.3

    13.67

    8.44

    7.36

    6.24

    3.47

    8.32

    10.71

    5.02

    11.49

    12.66

    8.04

    8.45

    5.7

    7.58

    7.85

    6.9

    7.39

    6.49

    6.3

    6.59

    4.55

    5.75

    5.77

    -2.17

    4.25

    3.43

    6.07

    4.09

    4.5

    (93SNA)

    (GDP)GDP(GNP)GNP(NI)

    /

    408,255,00010.3012,3741,2011,49914612,3671,2011,49814511,6531,1311,412137

    418,541,00010.3012.0317,3201,6822,02819717,3161,6812,02719716,3931,5921,919186

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    III12,928,00040.0012.4226,5616642,0555126,5126632,0515124,6396161,90648

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    20,255,00027.254.901,137,70341,76056,1582,0611,161,27342,62457,3212,1041,056,45438,77752,1471,914

    20,323,00027.236.491,143,63142,00856,2622,0671,172,11343,05357,6632,1181,065,54639,13952,4211,925

    8020,455,00026.827.584,942,042184,267241,6069,0085,059,138188,633247,3309,2224,575,718170,608223,6978,341

    20,377,00027.196.341,183,05043,45958,0452,1321,215,64244,65559,6442,1911,098,76440,36153,9101,980

    20,422,00027.268.081,189,34843,57958,2262,1331,210,98344,37059,2852,1721,092,29840,02053,4751,959

    20,469,00026.768.451,275,18247,59762,2842,3251,303,64548,65763,6752,3771,180,29044,05257,6502,152

    20,526,00026.057.411,294,46249,63263,0512,4181,328,86850,95164,7262,4821,204,36646,17558,6622,250

    8120,654,66825.167.855,502,802218,712266,41910,5895,623,664223,516272,27110,8225,088,384202,241246,3559,792

    20,574,44525.218.591,332,36752,87164,7292,5691,364,18054,13466,2752,6301,241,16449,25360,2992,393

    20,613,83225.037.981,326,57153,01964,3242,5711,350,69653,98465,4952,6181,220,25948,77259,1692,365

    20,664,02625.047.141,403,88356,08767,9082,7131,432,10057,21569,2732,7681,291,16751,58562,4562,495

    20,722,46525.397.741,439,98156,73569,4582,7361,476,68858,18371,2282,8061,335,79452,63164,4312,539

    8220,848,25026.396.906,094,146230,926292,31011,0776,207,950235,239297,76811,2835,610,402212,596269,10710,197

    20,768,33425.786.711,468,92656,98970,6862,7431,503,34058,32272,3422,8061,366,76453,02165,7702,551

    20,803,41326.086.731,475,02756,56870,8602,7181,502,12457,60572,1622,7671,356,31652,01165,1572,498

    20,851,66126.856.971,555,68457,95074,5622,7771,578,72058,80675,6662,8181,420,15452,89768,0652,535

    20,912,33826.847.161,594,50959,41976,2022,8391,623,76660,50677,5982,8921,467,16854,66770,1152,613

    8321,034,89926.467.396,673,939252,227317,27911,9916,781,348256,287322,38612,1846,144,530232,220292,11111,040

    20,961,88126.447.191,619,90161,24777,2632,9221,651,18262,42978,7562,9781,506,78456,97071,8682,718

    21,002,65926.747.271,611,79760,25776,7282,8691,631,02060,97577,6432,9031,475,50255,16170,2392,626

    21,051,70226.427.181,704,10864,48080,9343,0621,731,76765,52682,2473,1121,564,55159,19874,3052,811

    21,101,81726.237.901,738,13366,24382,3543,1381,767,37967,35783,7403,1911,597,69360,89175,6992,885

    8421,214,98726.496.497,252,757273,792341,87012,9067,363,955277,990347,11113,1036,669,704251,782314,38611,868

    21,142,41226.247.371,760,62967,10283,2603,1741,794,53568,39784,8623,2351,635,42462,33277,3382,948

    21,182,20625.587.171,751,08668,46082,6533,2311,769,65469,18983,5293,2661,599,52662,53675,4982,952

    21,232,11726.976.551,845,02668,41586,8823,2221,874,25869,50288,2593,2731,691,03262,70679,6302,953

    21,281,51827.165.001,896,01669,81589,0753,2791,925,50870,90290,4613,3291,743,72264,20881,9203,015

    8521,387,81527.466.307,944,595289,315371,45413,5278,054,095293,303376,57413,7147,293,024265,587340,99012,418

    21,318,81227.435.621,932,16670,43790,5923,3021,973,86171,95792,5473,3741,798,21165,55384,3113,074

    21,352,11827.396.121,911,84869,79889,4993,2671,929,86870,45690,3433,2991,744,54763,69081,6672,982

    21,393,47227.516.122,027,41473,69494,7263,4432,047,99474,44295,6873,4781,847,40967,15186,3153,137

    21,443,79927.507.272,073,16775,38696,6373,5152,102,37276,44897,9973,5631,902,85769,19388,6973,225

    8621,577,38228.706.598,610,139300,005399,03513,9048,699,750303,127403,18814,0487,869,063274,183364,69012,707

    21,487,05927.516.572,098,81876,23497,6083,5452,131,19677,40299,1143,5991,940,26670,46290,2333,276

    21,524,10027.756.282,058,42874,12195,5663,4412,075,59274,73196,3623,4691,874,23667,47687,0133,132

    21,580,28028.436.712,196,32677,194101,7023,5742,220,50578,036102,8213,6132,002,05170,35392,7053,257

    21,649,17331.126.792,256,56772,456104,1593,3442,272,45772,958104,8913,3672,052,51065,89294,7393,042

    8721,777,09633.464.559,238,472276,105424,22912,6799,307,023278,154427,37712,7738,395,386250,908385,51411,522

    21,705,87633.045.892,283,06969,056105,1833,1812,310,55069,881106,4493,2202,098,19363,45596,6662,924

    21,751,93933.635.122,236,22766,452102,8073,0552,243,38066,659103,1363,0652,020,71560,03992,8982,760

    21,800,35234.544.022,351,16968,027107,8523,1202,356,34068,171108,0893,1272,116,01061,21497,0642,808

    21,848,06932.613.312,368,00772,570108,3873,3232,396,75373,443109,7033,3612,160,46866,20098,8863,030

    8821,952,48632.275.759,640,893298,757439,17113,6099,731,411301,562443,29413,7378,730,667270,551397,70712,324

    21,889,71032.644.752,394,85273,339109,3973,3502,423,67674,220110,7143,3902,194,00567,190100,2223,070

    21,929,32132.716.722,359,24772,094107,5763,2872,370,23472,428108,0773,3022,124,72764,92996,8822,961

    21,970,21232.024.892,425,53475,717110,3933,4462,439,73176,158111,0393,4662,178,92568,02099,1683,095

    22,012,21131.706.602,461,26077,607111,8053,5262,497,77078,756113,4643,5792,233,01070,412101,4353,198

    8922,125,10231.235.7710,032,004321,230453,42214,51910,171,562325,698459,72914,7219,044,421289,607408,78613,090

    22,055,18630.748.002,504,93281,484113,5463,6942,540,81082,654115,1723,7472,280,46874,182103,3703,363

    22,095,00130.685.212,418,68878,832109,4393,5672,446,66479,748110,7053,6082,171,01570,75998,2323,202

    22,136,71431.076.462,555,22482,237115,3983,7142,586,72183,254116,8213,7602,289,36073,680103,4193,328

    22,187,90432.453.572,553,16078,677115,0393,5442,597,36780,042117,0313,6062,303,57870,986103,7653,197

    9022,277,93333.81-2.179,862,183291,694442,68813,09310,054,207297,374451,30813,3488,806,883260,482395,31911,692

    22,231,23132.530.612,539,18278,004114,2063,5082,594,37779,695116,6883,5842,293,53270,445103,1563,168

    22,261,00833.48-3.122,347,99370,083105,4663,1472,396,68571,534107,6523,2132,091,48362,41793,9432,803

    22,289,32934.66-4.632,450,20470,645109,9163,1692,495,21171,939111,9353,2272,175,11862,70397,5762,813

    22,321,37934.58-1.482,524,80472,962113,1003,2692,567,93474,206115,0333,3242,246,75064,917100,6442,908

    9122,396,42034.584.2510,194,278294,803455,17413,16310,436,780301,816466,00213,4769,123,393263,834407,35911,780

    22,351,39035.041.342,574,59373,473115,1643,2872,641,35675,379118,1513,3722,330,10266,499104,2282,974

    22,376,64834.454.252,436,04370,709108,8433,1602,490,76372,299111,2893,2302,168,41562,94596,8852,813

    22,403,66533.996.082,568,70575,569114,6333,3722,625,07777,229117,1493,4462,286,18067,261102,0243,001

    22,435,06834.845.332,614,93775,052116,5343,3442,679,58476,909119,4133,4282,338,69667,129104,2222,992

    9222,493,92134.423.4310,318,610299,785458,72913,32710,647,483309,340473,34913,7529,269,297269,300412,08011,972

    22,462,48134.713.372,603,68274,984115,8903,3372,717,69978,272120,9643,4842,394,33568,961106,5723,069

    22,478,86134.720.112,396,92869,010106,6103,0692,480,04771,407110,3073,1762,149,07161,87995,5852,753

    22,495,44534.254.152,616,71176,371116,3003,3942,669,62977,920118,6513,4632,312,29967,492102,7692,999

    22,519,90634.005.922,701,28979,420119,9293,5272,780,10881,741123,4273,6292,413,59270,968107,1543,151

    9322,575,03433.436.0710,770,434322,179477,09514,27111,146,310333,422493,74514,7709,698,078290,101429,59312,851

    22,543,04233.417.632,752,88182,382122,0943,6532,869,82885,879127,2813,8092,530,36475,721112,2253,359

    22,560,30233.389.042,554,40776,511113,2053,3912,628,52078,729116,4903,4892,276,11668,174100,8713,021

    22,578,32233.985.512,730,89280,354120,9293,5592,813,54182,783124,5893,6662,436,39071,686107,8873,175

    22,601,33432.942.522,732,25482,932120,8673,6682,834,42186,031125,3853,8062,455,20874,520108,6103,296

    94(r)22,652,54132.184.0311,146,783346,389492,07615,29111,437,618355,426504,91515,6909,947,504309,121439,13413,646

    (r)22,621,55331.542.452,820,12589,431124,6413,9532,927,86192,843129,4034,1032,579,16481,782113,9913,615

    (r)22,636,62031.402.892,594,26582,635114,5833,6502,663,55784,839117,6433,7472,301,77173,313101,6643,238

    (r)22,655,46032.324.242,817,89487,203124,3563,8482,843,01287,976125,4653,8832,456,03975,999108,3873,354

    (r)22,677,62633.466.442,914,49987,120128,4963,8403,003,18889,768132,4043,9572,610,53078,027115,0923,439

    95(f)22,729,97532.484.2811,505,914354,152506,19215,58011,832,765364,228520,57416,02410,259,079315,795451,34413,893

    (r)22,699,50332.324.922,915,03690,193128,4183,9733,037,92493,995133,8324,1412,673,63082,724117,7843,644

    (p)22,720,39532.184.572,681,25483,321118,0113,6672,761,23185,806121,5313,7772,379,22673,935104,7183,254

    (f)22,740,00032.704.392,915,57989,161128,2143,9212,944,83790,056129,5003,9602,528,76377,332111,2033,401

    (f)22,760,00032.733.312,994,04591,477131,5494,0193,088,77394,371135,7114,1462,677,46081,804117,6393,594

    96(f)22,802,50032.734.1312,011,016366,973526,73316,09212,348,443377,282541,53316,54510,649,653325,380467,03414,269

    www.stat.gov.tw

    (p)(f)8/17/06

    Sheet1

    (93SNA)

    401951

    4112.03

    429.43

    439.63

    448.21

    455.66

    467.48

    476.90

    487.72

    4919606.317.67

    506.81

    517.79

    529.37

    5312.15

    5411.21

    558.94

    5610.71

    579.29

    589.14

    59197011.419.68

    6012.84

    6113.30

    6212.88

    631.38

    644.94

    6513.96

    6610.30

    6713.67

    688.44

    6919807.369.91

    706.24

    713.47

    728.32

    7310.71

    745.02

    7511.49

    7612.66

    778.04

    788.45

    7919905.70

    807.58

    817.85

    826.90

    837.39

    846.49

    856.30

    866.59

    874.55

    885.75

    8920005.77

    902001-2.17

    9120024.25

    9220033.43

    9320046.07

    9420054.09

    2006(f)4.50

    2007(f)4.50

    2008(f)4.50

    2009(f)4.50

    2010(f)4.50

    2011(f)3.40

    2012(f)3.40

    2013(f)3.40

    2014(f)3.40

    2015(f)3.40

    www.stat.gov.tw

    (p)(f)

    Sheet1

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  • top-down approach mega-trends 600 RANDSRI

  • 2015

  • enrichenable200520252015

  • Mega Trend & ImpactsTechnology Clustering and SelectionStrategic DirectionsSWOT B A C D2015 Goal (structured)

  • 5GDP34

    2015

  • 2005 / 2015 1.93 8 ( 4,245,043M - 2,324,672M = 1,932,576M )

    20052015GDP per capita15,00030,000 21.13%19.06%GDP () 15,000*0.2113*22.8M = 72,264.6M 30,000*0.1906*23.2M = 132,657.6MGDP ()2,324,672M4,245,043M

  • 2005/2015 17,038,080M 8,050,406.4M = 8,987,674.6M2015132005 69.1% 2015 69%

    20052015GDP per capita15,00030,000 73.56%76.50%GDP ()15,000*0.7356*22.8M = 251,575.2M30,000*0.765*23.2M = 532,440MGDP ()8,050,406.4M17,038,080M

  • 20062015PSI5100

  • 20150.4

    200520150.3400.44.13%4

  • --

  • --

    3

    2015 2005201515%85%

  • - 2015

  • --

  • 2015 2015 GDP 2007-2015

  • $1,500

    20052015200 30050600 700171,200 2,200834,000 3,800-5

  • + Ex: + = + Ex: + = DNA Chip Ex:

  • 2015

  • (Combined Importance) (Combined Risk)Top Clusters: B1 Preventive, Predictive, and Personalized Molecular Diagnostics B2 Emerging Infectious Disease ManagementB3 Regenerative Medicine and Well-being for the Ageing PopulationB4 Agriculture BiotechnologyM1 Nano Materials and ApplicationsM2 Smart Materials and Applications M4 Advanced Electronic Materials and Devices E1 Clean Fossil Fuel Conversion & Emission Reduction E2 Next Generation Solar EnergyE3 Green VehiclesE4 Efficient Energy End Use DeviceE5 Advanced Fuel CellsS1 Highly Integrated ICs S2 Next Generation Semiconductor Processing S3 Flexible ElectronicsS4 Next Generation Computing DevicesI1 Recognition & Interpretation TechnologiesI2 Smart Enterprise ComputingI3 Networked Multi-MediaI4 Broadband CommunicationsI5 Intelligent Transportation SystemI6 Digital HomeMe1 Wireless TechnologiesMe2 Distributed Health Care SystemsMe3 Advanced Optical Display SystemsMe4 Sustainable BuildingsMe5 RoboticsMe6 Environment and Resources ManagementMe7 Precision Machinery

  • HighHighMediumMediumLowLowBase HitsHome RunsWatch and Act(Risk Reduction)(Commercial Development) Combined ImportanceCombined Risk

  • -- 2007-2010 2007-2010 : A B C

  • -- Build Strength on Strength 2015

  • 2015GDP(ITBTNTET) 20152015

  • 2010 2000 20%Foresight 2020 Goldman Sachs G6 G6 2016 GDP 6.52010 GDP 16.6 2020 19.4 GDP

  • ()(Hub of International Network)

    2015

    (one-stop shopping)

  • ()(Value Initiator and Champion)

    2015

    (champion)

  • ()(Innovator of Soft Economy)

    2015

  • ()(Pioneer of New Life Style)

    2015

    From features to benefits.Characteristics Top-down--: --:Mega trend, new technology--:

    Why can you count on the story? A reliable process. -Mega Trends & impacts-Vision/Position/Scenario-Structured Goals-Strategic Rationales-Technology clustering & selection-Departmental strategies

    branding Taiwanvalue chainalternativesGDP

    web2.0B2CB2B

    3RWEEEcommon

    Why can you count on the story? A reliable process. -Mega Trends & impacts-Vision/Position/Scenario-Structured Goals-Strategic Rationales-Technology clustering & selection-Departmental strategies

    Value Initiator and Champion Hub of International Network Innovator of Soft Economy Pioneer of New Life Style2005process2025Why can you count on the story? A reliable process. -Mega Trends & impacts-Vision/Position/Scenario-Structured Goals-Strategic Rationales-Technology clustering & selection-Departmental strategies

    Why can you count on the story? A reliable process. -Mega Trends & impacts-Vision/Position/Scenario-Structured Goals-Strategic Rationales-Technology clustering & selection-Departmental strategies

    10150%GDP

    ...Why can you count on the story? A reliable process. -Mega Trends & impacts-Vision/Position/Scenario-Structured Goals-Strategic Rationales-Technology clustering & selection-Departmental strategies

    target 2025(?)