2020 台灣產業發展願景與定位 中正大學演講

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2020 台台台台台台台台台台台 台台台台台台 中中中中中中中 中中中 2009 中 12 中 19 中

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2020 台灣產業發展願景與定位 中正大學演講. 中華經濟研究院 陳信宏 2009 年 12 月 19 日. 報告大綱. 台灣經濟現況檢視 國際趨勢的更新 SWOT 分析 對 2020 年發展願景的初步思考 附件. 台灣經濟現況檢視 (1/4). 在金融海嘯中,台灣在亞太諸國中 受創最深 2009 年台灣經濟預估 -4.04% ,就 GDP 成長因子 來看, ( X-M )為 -0.66% ,民間投資為 -4.40% 科技業因 「長鞭效應」 ,受創較深,但也已因 「兩岸和平紅利」 而止跌回穩 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 2020

    20091219

  • SWOT2020*

  • (1/4)2009-4.04%GDPX-M-0.66%-4.40%X-MGDP-0.66%-4.40%ICLCD*

  • (2/4)ICLCD

    *

  • (3/4)70.97%ICT69.85% ICLCDODMLCDDRAMICT39.14%13.94%27.94%vs.vs.GDP*

  • *////

  • (4/4)BOP1.2.GDP

    *

  • 20152020technology outlookinnovation outlookMega trends

    *

  • --*

  • 202020196514%Home Market 15-6520155074%/

  • 200828.9%22%16%199412.8%20087.6%ECFA*GDP

    20033.5 35.3 2.6 25.9 0.9 9.4 6.4 63.7 0.1 1.0 20043.9 38.7 2.9 28.4 1.0 10.3 5.6 55.3 0.6 6.0 20054.0 38.2 2.9 27.8 1.1 10.4 3.9 37.7 2.5 24.1 20064.5 38.7 3.3 28.2 1.2 10.5 4.9 42.0 2.2 19.3 20074.7 39.4 3.4 28.6 1.3 10.8 4.9 40.9 2.3 19.7

  • 20092008-20202020GDP72,500GDP135,00022020201002006~20202011-202021-50showcase*

  • GDP0.23316611.1GDP0.259922203.6 GDP0.671.093741.03GDP0.486,2133742.36GDP0.657,7294531.47GDP0.20848.323198GDP0.257.11110.8 157.72 2008*

  • China EU Information Technology Standards research partnershipICT19923G 4G6*

  • (1/3)Centre for Economics and Business Research2009GDP49.4%201245%CEBRUNDP200920097%6%5%3~4%

    *

  • (2/3)CSN40National Academies20091LCD*

  • (3/3)good enough marketSony199FlipAppleiPhone99Tesla10.9Model S5.64Panasonic50100/

    *

  • U/*

  • (1/2)201220091220202050/*

    20-20-2020082020199020%20%20%2020199025%20202005202015%202020054000 (American Clean Energy and Security Act, ACE Act)2020200517%

  • (2/2)2009*Japans TargetsTechnology Development and DiffusionFramework to move towards a Low Carbon SocietySupport for regional and citizens initiative

  • SWOT

  • SWOTICTICIC*

  • SWOT\ICT*

  • SWOTB2BB2C*

  • SWOT/FTA*

  • 2020

  • ++B2Bvalue capturerSolutionA-Team+++A-TeamB2BP2PB2C

    *

  • 20202015A Harvester of Experience Economyvalue capturer\\showcase *

  • *//

  • value capture70.97%ICT69.85%ICTICTWiiX-Box

    *

  • 2015200520152025

  • 20202015ABCD

    *ABDBACBC///

  • *2020/ (1/3)F4KPI

  • *2020/ (2/3)KPI:

  • 2020/ (3/3)DRAMLCDKPI:

  • *2020

    /2015

  • 2020I20196514%home market / A-team /

  • 2020IIGDP5% ODM /

  • 2020III2020199020%200590% now or never /

  • (1/2)scale up////*demanding needs /

  • (2/2)*solutions/solutions

  • (1/2)ECFAECFA/ *

  • (2/2)LCDLCD TVLCDsolutionliving labshowcase*

  • *

  • 1.2008Global Insight Inc2.GDP*

    GDP=C+IP+G+IG+X-M2007100%=59+17+12+5+73-662008100%=62+16+13+5+74-70

    2009(f)100%=62+11+13+6+64-5612.1=7.5+1.3+1.6+0.7+7.7-6.7-4.04%=0.12%-4.40%+0.37%+0.53%-0.66%

    20064.1 2.8 2.9 2.0 11.6 7.0 4.80 8.4 5.2 5.8 5.1 5.4 20074.0 2.0 2.6 2.3 13.0 6.4 5.70 7.8 5.1 6.3 4.8 7.2 20082.2 1.1 0.7 -0.7 9.0 2.4 0.06 1.1 2.2 4.6 2.6 4.6 2009(f)-2.6 -3.0 -2.4 -6.8 6.9 -2.9 -4.5 -7.7 -3.3 -2.2 -3.0 -0.1

  • (1/2)*GDP20062008 CIER2009/06

  • (2/2)GDP() ICTICTICT*2006 CIER2009/06

  • B200853.11%*1:AABB2:A B

  • *BOP()

  • 2015*IEK(2007)

  • **

    **********************************

    ********