20171127先鋒週報 聯準會偏鴿 美歐股市持穩

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聯準會偏鴿 美歐股市持穩 2017/11/27 先鋒週報

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  • 2017 / 11 / 2 7

  • 1.06

    0.84

    0.57

    0.40 0.38 0.36 0.29 0.28

    0.10 0.00

    (0.2)

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    (0.2) (0.1)(0.7)

    (9)

    (7)

    (5)

    (3)

    (1)

    1

    3

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/26

    (%)

    (bp)

    2.3420.0290.360

    1

  • (%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

    2.97 275 265 236

    6.15 376 367 335

    4.64 249 245 238

    3.76 161 159 155

    %

    %

    6.15

    2.97

    3.76

    4.64

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/26

    2

  • 3.2

    2.0

    1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4

    2.0 1.9 1.8

    1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1

    0.9

    0.4

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/26

    MSCI MSCI

    (%)

    3

  • : Bloomberg 2017/11/26 ==225=

    (%)

    5.0

    3.0 2.9 2.6

    2.3 1.8

    1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9

    0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2

    (0.8) (0.9)

    (1.6)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    4

  • (5.0%)

    (3.0%)105.1%4.3%10PPI

    7.6%

    (-0.9%)

    (-1.6%)

    5

  • Bloomberg

    6

  • ()Bloomberg : 2017/11/26 ()

    7

  • ()Bloomberg : 2017/11/26 ()

    8

  • (0.4)

    4.2

    1.0

    3.3

    1.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4

    (0.9) (1.1)

    (2.0)(3)

    (2)

    (1)

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    CR

    B

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/26

    (%)

    $1.19

    111.53

    92.78

    $58.95

    $1288.8

    9

    $64.70

  • : Bloomberg

    10

    11/20 () 10 1.2% 0.6% -0.2%

    PPI 10 2.7% 2.5% 3.1%

    11/21 ()() 10 5.48k 5.4m 5.39m

    () 9 -0.5% -0.4% 0.1%

    11/22 ()

    11 239k 240k 249k

    MBA 11 0.1% - 3.1%

    10 -1.2% - 1.1%

    11 98.5 98.0 97.8

    EIA() 1117 -185.5 - 185.4

    11/23 ()

    MarkitPMI 11 62.5 60.4 60.6

    MarkitPMI 11 57.5 55.9 56.1

    MarkitPMI 11 60.5 58.2 58.5

    GDP 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

    GDP() 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%

    11/24 () MarkitPMI 11 53.8 55.0 54.6

    PMI 11 53.8 52.8

  • 11/27 () 10 62.4 66.7

    11/28 () 11 123.5 125.9

    10 0.4% 0.3%

    11/29 ()

    CPI 11 - 1.6%

    10 - 8.9%

    CPI 11 - 1.4%

    GDP 3.2% 3.0%

    11/30 () ,

    11 51.5 51.6

    11 - -1.1

    10 0.2% 1%

    10 0.3% 0.4%

    12/1 (), ,

    ,

    GDP 3.6% 3.6%

    CPI 10 0.2% 0.7%

    PMI 11 51 51

    MarkitPMI 11 - 62.5

    MarkitPMI 11 - 57.5

    MarkitPMI 11 - 60

    ISM 11 58.3 58.7

    10 0.5% 0.3%

    : Bloomberg

    11

  • 12

    11/28

    11/27

    11/30

    12/4

    (11/301.50%)

  • 13

  • FedECBQE

    OPEC

    14

  • 15

  • (%)

    MSCI 2059.54 1.30 1.23 5.91 7.70 17.61 19.68

    2602.42 0.91 0.83 6.52 7.72 16.24 17.58

    1519.16 1.76 0.72 10.29 9.91 11.94 12.76

    386.63 0.74 -1.73 3.36 -1.21 6.98 12.90

    289.93 0.79 -1.30 3.54 0.18 12.68 18.18

    225 22550.85 0.69 2.46 15.93 14.55 17.98 22.68

    6875.90 2.15 -0.71 4.41 15.44 31.47 43.14

    3353.82 -0.86 -1.84 0.67 7.84 8.06 2.82

    MSCI 1154.26 1.57 3.97 6.35 13.50 33.86 34.88

    MSCI 591.89 1.61 4.80 9.13 16.35 41.28 40.03

    MSCI 336.71 2.21 3.01 2.19 8.16 13.38 24.16

    MSCI 2817.86 1.52 -1.19 -2.61 8.93 20.39 22.72

    MSCI 277.39 1.39 4.20 0.68 3.81 13.33 21.60

    Bloomberg 126.49 0.10 0.44 -0.37 0.76 2.38 2.31

    Bloomberg 140.38 0.00 0.57 0.56 1.70 2.08 2.52

    Bloomberg 152.11 0.40 0.47 0.86 2.80 5.87 6.72

    Bloomberg 175.43 0.57 -0.17 1.70 3.76 9.55 11.78

    Bloomberg 182.52 0.36 -0.52 1.42 2.58 7.50 9.78

    Bloomberg 183.50 0.28 -0.01 1.37 2.89 5.98 7.92

    ETF 52.48 1.06 2.32 4.00 6.73 14.96 14.21

    Bloomberg 169.50 0.38 0.24 1.30 3.47 8.98 10.49

    Bloomberg 132.70 0.84 0.68 0.29 3.77 8.30 7.65

    Bloomberg 173.71 0.29 0.05 0.66 3.17 8.55 8.12

    Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    16

  • (%) ()

    MSCI 211.86 1.43 1.54 9.15 5.46 -3.26 1.96

    MSCI 272.50 1.95 1.55 7.23 14.62 22.81 23.91

    MSCI 122.12 0.86 -0.71 4.39 9.77 15.02 19.46

    MSCI 231.67 1.36 2.04 6.78 6.25 17.94 18.01

    MSCI 231.43 1.06 2.72 1.51 -0.67 11.51 13.47

    MSCI 252.36 1.39 -0.60 5.93 7.49 18.77 19.20

    MSCI 224.69 1.86 3.58 13.46 16.35 39.36 39.74

    MSCI 68.60 1.82 0.48 -2.40 -2.53 -1.34 3.40

    MSCI 131.77 0.41 0.33 0.33 2.92 14.63 18.99

    MSCI 225.00 1.08 0.15 3.02 4.73 16.68 17.18

    NBI 3273.35 0.47 -1.21 0.57 8.49 18.06 9.89

    AMEX 188.18 0.15 0.61 -6.45 -3.36 3.22 7.06

    REITs FTSE 17470.32 0.49 3.85 3.29 6.28 9.77 14.49

    REITs FTSE 2010.02 0.28 3.23 2.50 4.82 4.41 9.65

    REITs FTSE 1358.49 -0.40 1.29 2.90 -1.68 2.83 9.86

    REITs FTSE 1807.14 2.11 4.30 2.07 3.13 8.02 11.64

    (/) 1288.80 -0.42 1.11 -0.26 1.67 11.78 8.80

    (/) 17.06 -1.48 1.08 -2.31 -2.02 7.04 2.65

    (/) 7002.00 3.32 -0.48 4.57 23.23 26.49 19.33

    (/) 63.86 1.82 5.54 21.71 22.32 12.27 35.03

    (/) 58.95 4.24 8.87 22.58 17.83 9.23 27.40

    CRB 192.22 0.96 2.85 8.09 5.61 -0.15 3.49

    812.67 -0.07 -0.54 0.69 -2.21 -3.37 -4.41

    Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    17

  • (%)

    1.1933 1.21 2.71 -0.47 6.80 13.37 12.33

    111.53 0.51 1.85 -2.11 -0.30 4.80 0.30

    1.3337 0.92 1.49 3.02 3.77 7.97 7.31

    0.9795 0.97 1.82 -2.55 -0.27 3.95 3.31

    1.2712 0.40 0.68 -1.68 5.74 5.65 5.42

    0.7617 0.70 -0.83 -4.40 2.33 5.62 1.75

    1085.23 1.12 3.86 2.91 3.09 10.79 7.53

    29.9670 0.39 0.97 0.96 0.69 7.87 6.55

    6.6018 0.38 0.52 0.91 4.37 5.20 4.85

    13504.00 0.20 0.21 -1.17 -1.43 -0.23 0.40

    64.7025 0.48 0.56 -1.04 0.05 4.98 6.25

    32.6810 0.50 1.67 1.55 4.38 9.65 8.77

    1.3456 0.77 1.33 0.50 2.93 7.42 5.72

    4.1163 1.07 3.05 3.68 3.79 8.99 8.44

    50.6750 0.55 2.12 0.72 -1.75 -2.13 -1.80

    14.1585 -1.15 0.28 -7.32 -7.81 -2.30 -2.37

    3.9553 -2.05 -4.11 -12.83 -9.46 -10.82 -13.55

    58.4488 0.98 -0.54 0.06 -3.27 5.35 11.06

    3.5283 1.77 3.60 0.38 6.02 18.57 17.98

    261.65 1.10 2.12 -2.94 5.37 12.44 11.96

    3.8905 1.00 1.78 -1.46 4.99 10.73 9.20

    3.2322 0.83 0.47 -2.60 1.40 0.71 5.09

    18.5575 1.90 3.07 -3.73 -0.48 11.66 11.13

    17.3561 0.72 0.83 -0.91 -7.30 -8.50 -10.34

    Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    18

  • (%) () (bp)

    30 2.7638 -1.4 -15.4 1.7 -14.8 -30.1 -24.1

    10 2.3418 -0.2 -6.5 17.6 9.5 -10.3 -1.5

    0.0290 -0.7 -4.4 1.0 -1.3 -1.7 -1.3

    0.3600 -0.1 -11.6 -1.6 -4.3 15.2 10.1

    0.6950 -1.1 -18.4 0.7 -14.1 0.9 -9.6

    1.8110 -2.5 -25.0 -30.1 -32.6 -0.4 -32.0

    1.4860 -6.9 -17.1 -11.2 -12.4 10.2 -10.3

    1.9390 -4.4 -37.3 -92.8 -129.1 -182.5 -172.8

    3.3370 -7.6 -4.8 3.8 -1.9 -29.6 -26.7

    12.7000 15.0 103.0 204.0 211.0 131.0 146.0

    7.7063 -1.1 5.6 -15.8 -5.3 -75.3 -112.4

    2.0400 -22.0 -46.0 -91.0 -100.0 -112.0 -146.0

    9.3440 0.4 49.1 76.4 84.9 42.0 31.3

    10.1740 -1.3 47.6 10.2 -78.1 -122.7 -171.2

    7.2600 -2.1 0.9 42.0 -6.5 -17.6 -22.5

    2.5400 -3.0 8.3 24.8 27.5 44.8 34.5

    6.5510 -7.9 -27.6 -25.6 -40.1 -142.2 -177.3

    * 6.9880 -6.1 21.3 45.0 30.7 47.3 80.1

    2.3950 3.8 11.1 0.5 -27.9 -25.4 -19.9

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/19 *

    19

  • 2008

    2014

    -26.69% -5.61%

    -36.09% -7.28%

    -20.81% --

    -18.82% -5.58%

    -21.11% -12.76%

    -9.52% -5.56%

    Bloomberg() 2017/11/19

    %

    20

  • 106022 (02)7708-8888 407225F-1

    (04)3700-7988 360171

    (07)972-1188 39

    21