20171211先鋒週報非農優於預期無礙升息

1. 2 0 1 7 / 12 / 1 1

2. 0.25 (0.18) (0.27) (0.29) (0.63) (0.66) (0.67) (0.70) (0.75) (0.77) (1) 0 1 1.5 0.2 1.8 (8) (6) (4) (2) 0 2 4 6 : Bloomberg 2017/12/10 (%) (bp) 2.376 0.053 0.307 1

3. (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 2.97 265 236 6.15 367 335 4.64 245 238 3.76 159 155 % % 2.96 6.21 3.74 4.73 : Bloomberg 2017/11/12 2

4. 0.5 0.5 (0.1) (0.5) (0.5) (0.7) (1.0) (1.1) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 (0.0) (0.2) (0.5) (0.7) (0.9) (4) (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 4 : Bloomberg 2017/12/10 MSCI MSCI (%) 3

5. : Bloomberg 2017/12/10 ==225= (%) 4.2 3.1 3.0 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 (0.0) (0.5) (0.7) (0.8) (1.2) (1.4) (1.5) (1.9) (2.1) (2.3) (5.0) (3.0) (1.0) 1.0 3.0 5.0 4

6. (4.2%) (3.1%) (-2.1%) (-2.3%) 5

7. Bloomberg 6

8. ()Bloomberg : 2017/12/10 () 7

9. ()Bloomberg : 2017/12/10 () 8

10. (2.5) (1.7) (3.0) (3.8) 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 (0.4) (0.5) (0.6) (0.7) (1.0) (1.1) (1.2) (1.4) (1.7) (5) (4) (2) (1) 1 3 CRB : Bloomberg 2017/12/10 (%) $1.177 113.48 93.90 $57.36 $1248.5 9 $64.46

11. : Bloomberg 10 12/4 () () 10 -0.8% -1.0% -1.2% 10 -0.1% -0.4% 1.4% 12/5 () 10 -$48.7b -$45.4b -$43.5b GDP () 3 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% PMI 11 51.9 - 51.2 PMI 11 51.6 - 51.0 12/6 () ADP 11 190k 190k 235k 10 0.5% -0.1% 1.0% 12/7 () 10 -1.4% 1.0% -1.6% 12/8 () 11 228k 210k 261k 11 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% () 12 96.8 98.9 98.5 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 11 12.3% 5.1% 6.9% 11 17.7% 12.0% 17.2% GDP 3 2.5% 1.5% 1.4%

12. 12/11 () , JOLTS 10 - 6093.0 12/12 () CPI 11 - 0.1% ZEW 12 18.7 PPI 11 3.0% 2.8% 12/13 () 10 2.7% -8.1% CPI 11 - 1.8% 11 2.3% CPI 11 2.2% 2.0% 12/14 () 11 5.4% 5.4% PMI 12 57.7 PMI 12 60.3 PMI 12 60.1 Markit PMI 12 54.0 53.9 12/15 () 24.0 22.0 12 18.0 19.4 : Bloomberg 11

13. 12 EvercoreISI(2017/12/7) 12/9~12(ASH) 12/9 12/11-13 12/14-15 12/12~12/131.25~1.5 (12/143%) (12/148%) (12/140.5%) (12/140%-0.4%) (12/158%)

14. 13

15. Fed ECBQE OPEC 14

16. 15

17. (%) MSCI 2073.46 0.20 1.63 4.62 7.84 18.40 17.80 2651.50 0.35 2.68 6.57 9.04 18.43 17.35 1521.72 -1.00 3.15 7.56 7.03 12.13 9.63 389.25 1.38 0.14 2.59 -0.29 7.70 9.53 294.00 1.31 0.99 3.50 2.20 14.26 16.62 225 22811.08 -0.03 0.55 16.68 13.96 19.32 20.06 7006.01 1.64 3.82 6.63 17.67 34.58 39.13 3289.99 -0.83 -3.96 -2.36 4.38 6.22 1.97 MSCI 1110.78 -0.46 -1.57 1.06 9.09 28.82 26.53 MSCI 568.27 -0.24 -1.93 3.68 10.43 35.64 31.61 MSCI 329.44 0.37 -1.34 -3.11 7.26 10.93 14.69 MSCI 2702.13 -1.01 -1.94 -9.49 6.56 15.44 15.19 MSCI 270.98 -1.15 0.66 -2.26 4.62 10.71 13.25 Bloomberg 126.06 -0.29 -0.15 -0.53 1.21 2.03 0.81 Bloomberg 140.32 -0.27 0.63 0.61 1.61 2.04 1.99 Bloomberg 150.98 -0.70 -0.32 0.37 3.09 5.08 4.59 Bloomberg 174.11 -0.63 -0.62 1.19 3.87 8.73 10.40 Bloomberg 181.68 -0.75 -0.61 1.21 2.61 7.01 9.34 Bloomberg 183.41 -0.67 0.45 1.33 2.91 5.92 7.26 ETF 51.74 0.25 0.56 4.04 6.13 13.34 15.23 Bloomberg 167.98 -0.66 -0.47 1.10 3.12 8.00 7.97 Bloomberg 131.13 -0.18 -0.91 -0.48 3.33 7.02 3.69 Bloomberg 172.41 -0.77 -0.64 0.36 3.15 7.74 5.31 Bloomberg 2017/12/11 16

18. (%) () MSCI 213.47 -0.85 -1.36 6.70 7.38 -2.52 -1.97 MSCI 268.24 -0.15 -0.68 3.02 10.70 20.89 18.10 MSCI 125.56 0.79 3.61 7.90 10.78 18.25 16.08 MSCI 235.04 0.54 3.45 6.42 8.03 19.65 17.60 MSCI 235.08 0.81 3.02 1.53 1.21 13.27 14.30 MSCI 256.95 0.70 2.08 5.27 8.30 20.93 19.25 MSCI 219.38 -0.01 -0.65 7.85 14.20 36.07 35.21 MSCI 70.45 0.27 5.13 2.71 -0.14 1.32 4.05 MSCI 132.26 -0.53 0.00 0.00 2.69 15.05 17.17 MSCI 225.72 -0.67 1.65 -1.25 3.70 17.06 18.56 NBI 3338.70 0.67 2.08 -4.61 8.53 20.41 18.45 AMEX 177.19 -4.66 -5.27 -14.92 -9.74 -2.81 0.11 REITs FTSE 17246.11 -0.76 -1.38 -0.13 3.75 8.37 9.57 REITs FTSE 1994.08 -0.50 -0.70 -0.58 2.59 3.58 4.84 REITs FTSE 1414.28 3.72 4.10 4.29 1.77 7.06 10.06 REITs FTSE 1789.89 -1.00 1.13 -0.72 1.98 6.99 8.42 (/) 1248.50 -2.50 -2.17 -6.00 -1.48 8.29 7.57 (/) 15.86 -3.52 -7.05 -10.97 -6.54 -0.47 -7.16 (/) 6571.00 -3.83 -4.14 -1.82 14.69 18.71 13.65 (/) 63.40 -0.52 -0.65 17.22 31.07 11.07 16.16 (/) 57.36 -1.71 0.65 18.81 24.61 6.31 10.89 CRB 185.02 -2.97 -3.46 1.85 4.67 -3.89 -3.63 797.74 -2.13 -2.49 -2.61 -4.62 -5.14 -5.24 Bloomberg 2017/12/11 17

19. (%) 1.1773 -1.03 0.94 -1.47 5.12 11.98 10.74 113.48 -1.17 0.00 -3.72 -3.23 2.94 1.23 1.3390 -0.65 2.14 1.78 5.83 8.57 5.66 0.9927 -1.69 0.39 -3.64 -2.38 2.68 2.12 1.2848 -1.28 -0.96 -5.80 3.64 4.55 2.13 0.7509 -1.37 -1.40 -6.39 -0.33 4.27 0.25 1092.50 -0.56 2.51 3.54 3.11 10.30 6.86 30.0060 0.01 0.58 0.04 0.63 7.75 6.18 6.6209 -0.07 0.36 -1.32 2.74 4.96 4.38 13550.00 -0.20 0.04 -2.89 -1.76 -0.55 -1.59 64.4550 0.01 0.78 -1.04 -0.38 5.38 4.50 32.6230 -0.02 1.40 1.56 4.42 9.88 9.13 1.3530 -0.49 0.70 -0.41 2.35 6.98 5.26 4.0875 0.09 2.64 2.80 4.51 9.86 8.35 50.5550 -0.55 1.59 0.95 -1.56 -1.55 -0.98 13.6672 0.52 6.02 -4.87 -6.04 0.68 -0.24 3.8353 2.01 0.90 -11.17 -8.35 -8.15 -9.57 59.1269 -0.39 0.36 -3.32 -3.57 3.98 3.10 3.5664 -0.67 1.85 -0.36 5.00 17.46 17.43 266.68 -1.08 0.25 -3.81 2.95 10.42 10.92 3.9356 -1.06 1.37 -2.22 3.51 9.65 7.62 3.2935 -1.10 -1.31 -6.26 -0.97 -1.16 2.48 18.9292 -1.59 0.92 -6.76 -4.33 9.35 6.65 17.2811 -0.32 2.18 -0.42 -7.44 -8.11 -7.46 Bloomberg 2017/12/11 18

20. (%) () (bp) 30 2.7685 0.7 -11.1 2.6 -8.7 -29.7 -38.4 10 2.3760 1.5 -2.2 24.5 17.6 -6.8 -9.2 0.0530 1.8 1.0 4.3 -0.3 0.7 -0.8 0.3070 0.2 -1.9 -0.5 5.1 9.9 -7.5 0.6330 2.6 -6.3 1.7 -1.3 -5.3 -17.6 1.6510 -6.5 -9.5 -30.8 -52.7 -16.4 -34.6 1.4010 -1.6 -8.4 -14.3 -7.5 1.7 -10.3 1.8060 -7.7 -20.1 -99.3 -121.7 -195.8 -194.0 3.2540 -8.6 -14.1 9.6 4.7 -37.9 -36.5 12.0200 -10.0 -31.0 138.0 154.0 63.0 82.0 7.6489 0.0 -7.5 7.0 -16.0 -81.1 -92.4 2.0900 4.0 -24.0 -79.0 -92.0 -107.0 -127.0 9.2670 -6.6 -0.8 85.4 76.2 34.3 37.7 10.1910 -14.6 16.5 47.9 -67.5 -121.0 -157.9 7.3000 3.6 4.4 54.1 18.7 -13.6 6.6 2.4870 0.2 -4.5 25.2 31.5 39.5 33.0 6.5610 4.4 -10.1 16.3 -34.2 -141.2 -110.0 * 7.0550 -0.4 11.5 51.2 52.3 54.0 65.6 2.3860 2.4 10.3 16.3 -11.3 -26.3 -33.1 : Bloomberg 2017/12/11 * 19

21. 2008 2014 -26.69% -5.61% -36.09% -7.28% -20.81% -- -18.82% -5.58% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% Bloomberg() 2017/10/30 % 20

22. 106022 (02)7708-8888 407225F-1 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 21

20171211先鋒週報 非農優於預期無礙升息

Economy & Finance

20171211先鋒週報非農優於預期無礙升息