20180102先鋒週報 北海及利比亞油管停運 激勵油價續揚

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北海及利比亞油管停運 激勵油價續揚 2018/01/02 先鋒週報

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  • 2018 / 01 / 0 2

  • 1.01

    0.72 0.51

    0.24 0.21 0.07

    (0.05) (0.08)

    (0.51)

    (1)

    0

    1

    2

    (7.6)

    0.7

    0.0

    (8)

    (6)

    (4)

    (2)

    0

    2

    4

    6

    : Bloomberg 2018/1/1

    (%)

    (bp)

    2.405

    0.0480.427

    1

  • 2.9

    1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2

    (0.8)

    1.3 1.0

    0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1

    (0.1)

    (0.9)

    (4)

    (3)

    (2)

    (1)

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    : Bloomberg 2018/1/1

    MSCI MSCI

    (%)

    3

  • : Bloomberg 2018/1/1 ==225=

    (%)

    3.8 3.4

    2.2 2.0 1.6 1.6

    1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3

    (0.0) (0.1)(0.4) (0.4)

    (0.6)(1.0) (1.2)

    (1.6)

    (5.0)

    (3.0)

    (1.0)

    1.0

    3.0

    5.0

    4

  • (3.8%)

    (3.4%)201721.1%

    (-1.2%)

    (-1.6%)2017/12/282018/3/4

    5

  • Bloomberg

    6

  • ()Bloomberg : 2018/1/1 ()

    7

  • ()Bloomberg : 2018/1/1 ()

    8

  • 2.1

    3.3 3.2

    1.7 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0

    0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

    (1.3)(2)

    0

    2

    4

    6

    CR

    B

    : Bloomberg 2018/1/1

    (%)

    $1.20 112.63

    92.12

    $60.42

    $1302.55

    9

    $63.68

  • : Bloomberg

    10

    12/25 (),,,,

    () 10 106.5 - 106.1

    12/26 (),,

    12 29.7 20.0 19.4

    CPI 12 0.6% 0.5% 0.2%

    11 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%

    11 1.56 1.56 1.55

    12/27 ()

    12 122.1 128.0 129.5

    11 14.9% - 25.1%

    11 0.2% -0.5% 3.5%

    12/28 ()

    11 2.2% 1.0% -0.2%

    PMI 12 67.6 61.8 63.9

    11 -69,700m -67,500m -68,300m

    12/29 () CPI () 12 1.7% 1.5% 1.8%

  • 01/01 () 12 10.0% 9.6%

    01/02 ()

    Markit PMI () 12 55.0 55.0

    Markit PMI () 12 60.6 60.6

    Markit PMI () 12 63.3 63.3

    Markit PMI () 12 57.9 58.2

    Markit PMI () 12 59.3 59.3

    PMI 12 50.7 50.8

    01/03 () ISM 12 58.2 58.2

    11 0.7% 1.4%

    01/04 () ADP 12 190k 190k

    PMI () 12 - 54.2

    01/05 ()

    12 188k 228k

    12 4.1% 4.1%

    () 11 - 1.3%

    11 1.4% -0.1%

    11 -$47.8b -48.7b

    : Bloomberg

    11

  • 12

    1/412

  • 2018GDP2.5%

    IMF2018GDP1.9% ECB2019

    13

  • 2017 Fed20183ECB

    OPEC

    14

  • 15

  • (%)

    MSCI 2103.47 0.18 1.65 5.14 9.76 0.00 20.11

    2673.61 -0.36 1.19 6.12 10.32 0.00 19.42

    1535.51 -0.48 -0.10 2.99 8.49 0.00 13.14

    389.18 -0.28 1.36 0.26 2.59 0.00 7.68

    297.71 0.59 2.58 1.99 6.31 0.00 15.71

    225 22764.94 -0.60 -0.24 11.83 13.63 0.00 19.10

    7275.86 1.40 5.55 8.20 18.47 0.00 39.12

    3307.17 0.31 -0.31 -1.25 3.59 0.00 6.56

    MSCI 1157.55 1.44 3.73 7.01 14.52 -0.08 34.24

    MSCI 586.24 1.12 2.92 7.99 14.57 -0.10 39.93

    MSCI 345.87 2.23 5.38 4.58 13.90 0.00 16.46

    MSCI 2828.15 1.70 3.60 -3.04 11.16 0.00 20.83

    MSCI 296.00 2.86 7.98 11.25 17.09 -0.03 20.93

    Bloomberg 2165.43 0.51 -0.02 0.05 0.43 0.00 2.30

    Bloomberg 246.91 -0.05 -0.56 0.64 1.78 0.00 2.41

    Bloomberg 2901.78 0.72 0.50 1.17 2.53 0.00 6.42

    Bloomberg 356.51 0.48 0.45 0.91 3.69 0.00 10.29

    Bloomberg 183.25 0.22 0.32 0.51 2.74 0.03 7.93

    Bloomberg 317.40 0.07 -0.07 0.79 2.58 0.00 6.90

    ETF 50.60 -0.51 -1.59 -0.96 1.98 0.00 10.84

    Bloomberg 1096.07 0.24 0.27 0.62 2.91 0.00 8.17

    Bloomberg 136.38 1.01 1.45 2.17 5.03 0.00 14.27

    Bloomberg 2018/1/1

    16

  • (%) ()

    MSCI 223.54 1.03 3.82 5.95 14.62 0.00 2.08

    MSCI 280.52 1.32 4.42 7.60 16.52 0.00 26.43

    MSCI 127.27 0.18 2.16 5.28 10.36 0.00 19.86

    MSCI 239.46 -0.09 2.43 7.33 10.60 0.00 21.90

    MSCI 237.77 0.63 1.96 5.20 4.20 0.00 14.57

    MSCI 261.68 0.43 2.55 4.90 10.29 0.00 23.15

    MSCI 220.66 -0.90 0.57 8.09 16.92 0.00 36.86

    MSCI 71.13 0.07 1.23 0.91 3.90 0.00 2.30

    MSCI 127.18 0.49 -4.35 -4.35 1.29 0.00 10.63

    MSCI 227.62 0.19 0.16 0.64 2.74 0.00 18.04

    NBI 3356.61 -0.21 1.21 -3.91 3.42 0.00 21.06

    AMEX 192.31 1.80 3.48 -2.13 3.55 0.00 5.48

    REITs FTSE 17295.16 1.46 -0.48 2.48 3.62 0.00 8.67

    REITs FTSE 2000.50 1.42 -0.17 1.63 2.36 0.00 3.91

    REITs FTSE 1430.83 1.27 4.93 5.77 5.78 0.00 8.31

    REITs FTSE 1849.57 1.50 2.30 6.17 8.03 0.00 10.56

    (/) 1302.55 2.14 2.06 2.83 5.26 0.29 13.42

    (/) 16.94 3.74 3.93 2.28 5.15 0.15 6.50

    (/) 7247.00 1.71 6.06 11.82 22.07 0.00 30.92

    (/) 66.87 2.48 5.52 19.83 40.34 0.57 18.36

    (/) 60.42 3.34 3.99 19.99 31.82 0.45 12.97

    CRB 193.86 3.19 1.67 5.89 10.92 0.00 0.70

    805.85 0.76 -1.03 -0.44 -3.05 -4.18 -3.88

    Bloomberg 2018/1/1

    17

  • (%)

    1.2012 1.26 1.24 2.39 5.71 0.07 14.90

    112.63 0.58 -0.31 0.01 0.55 -0.06 4.25

    1.3503 1.05 0.28 1.82 4.47 0.04 10.10

    0.9750 1.32 1.08 0.02 -1.12 -0.02 5.03

    1.2545 1.45 1.02 -0.29 3.68 0.21 7.16

    0.7805 1.25 2.79 -0.22 1.94 0.01 8.71

    1066.67 1.20 2.12 7.55 7.56 0.11 13.30

    29.7140 0.70 0.99 2.42 2.41 0.06 8.76

    6.5068 1.07 1.69 2.24 4.31 0.00 6.90

    13555.00 0.01 -0.41 -0.61 -1.66 0.00 -0.62

    63.6750 0.58 1.24 2.52 1.88 0.31 7.15

    32.5820 0.49 0.15 2.68 4.47 0.06 10.05

    1.3360 0.57 0.92 1.96 3.55 0.05 8.64

    4.0465 0.82 0.61 4.85 6.49 0.20 11.09

    49.8500 0.56 1.43 2.28 1.42 -0.19 -0.59

    12.3828 1.89 9.00 9.68 6.52 -0.15 10.76

    3.7910 0.48 2.22 -5.88 -6.16 0.21 -6.50

    57.6889 1.06 2.08 0.45 2.81 0.15 6.15

    3.4841 1.41 1.98 5.73 7.55 0.22 21.41

    258.91 1.50 2.25 2.88 5.17 0.12 14.40

    3.8955 0.38 0.18 0.32 3.29 -0.18 11.44

    3.3125 0.75 -2.07 -4.53 -0.29 0.00 -1.77

    19.6590 0.46 -5.24 -7.20 -7.21 0.08 5.55

    18.6232 -3.04 -6.41 -7.01 -11.42 0.00 -14.48

    Bloomberg 2018/1/1

    18

  • (%) () (bp)

    30 2.7399 -9.1 -2.2 -12.0 -9.5 0.0 -32.5

    10 2.4054 -7.6 4.4 7.2 10.2 0.0 -3.9

    0.0480 0.0 1.3 -2.0 -3.8 0.0 0.2

    0.4270 0.7 12.2 -3.7 -3.9 0.0 21.9

    0.7850 4.3 17.8 4.2 -3.0 0.0 9.9

    2.0160 10.4 30.0 -9.5 -14.2 0.0 20.1

    1.5670 9.5 15.0 -3.7 2.8 0.0 18.3

    1.9430 10.5 6.0 -44.5 -108.4 0.0 -182.1

    3.3030 -1.6 -3.7 -6.9 -1.9 0.0 -33.0

    11.6700 -34.0 -98.0 70.0 113.0 28.0 33.0

    7.6366 0.9 -4.6 -2.8 -22.6 -82.3 -80.6

    2.0200 -2.0 -9.0 -56.0 -105.0 -114.0 -115.0

    8.7210 0.0 -67.4 26.2 15.3 -20.3 -25.4

    9.7960 -57.7 -50.2 6.2 -83.8 -160.5 -160.5

    7.6570 -10.9 38.5 78.3 90.9 22.1 15.2

    2.4670 -2.3 -1.0 9.7 27.5 37.5 37.5

    6.3190 -4.9 -19.8 -18.9 -51.0 0.0 -165.4

    * 7.3260 5.5 26.7 66.3 81.5 0.0 81.1

    2.3240 -4.8 1.0 3.2 -14.6 -32.5 -39.2

    : Bloomberg 2018/1/1 *

    19

  • 2008

    2014

    -26.69% -5.61%

    -36.09% -7.28%

    -20.81% --

    -18.82% -5.58%

    -21.11% -12.76%

    -9.52% -5.56%

    Bloomberg() 2017/10/30

    %

    20

  • 106022

    (02)7708-8888 407225F-1

    (04)3700-7988 360171

    (07)972-1188 39

    21