5 february, 2013
DESCRIPTION
Intersects of climate, land use, energy and water in the U.S. as addressed in the National Climate Assessment CLA’s: Kathy A. Hibbard and Tom Wilson LA’s: Kristen Averyt , Robert Harriss , Robin Newmark , Steven Rose, Elena Shevliakova and Vincent Tidwell. 5 February, 2013. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Intersects of climate, land use, energy and water in the U.S. as addressed in the National Climate Assessment
CLA’s: Kathy A. Hibbard and Tom Wilson
LA’s: Kristen Averyt, Robert Harriss, Robin Newmark, Steven Rose, Elena Shevliakova and Vincent Tidwell
5 February, 2013
1
A Word (or two) on Carbon
1. Carbon is a currency for energy – from production (e.g., emissions) to consumption (e.g., buildings, land use)
2. Carbon and water are intimately linked
3. Understanding and quantifying carbon cycle dynamics and budgets is needed for appropriate analyses from driving forces to impacts, vulnerability and risk assessment.
For interactions of biogeochemical cycles and climate from the NCA see chapter 15 at: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/
Key Messages
1. Energy, land, and water systems interact in many ways. Climate change affects the individual sectors and their interactions; the combination of these factors affects climate vulnerability as well as adaptation and mitigation options for different regions of the country.
2. The dependence of energy systems on land availability and water supplies will influence their development and constrain some options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
3. Jointly considering risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities associated with energy, water, and land use is difficult, but can improve the analysis of options for reducing climate change impacts.
Energy, land, and water systems interact in many ways
Wat
er
Quality Im
pacts
Nutrient Loading
Ponds
Lakes
Rivers
Streams
Fres
hBr
acki
sh/
Salin
e
New Water
Desalination
Snow
Pack
Gro
und
Wat
ers
Surfac
e Wate
rs
Land
Forest &
Grasslands
Agriculture
Cropland
Pasture CAFO
Urban,
Com
mercial &
Industrial M
unic
ipal
Sol
id W
aste
Des
ert &
Scr
ub
Other
Energy
Power G
rid
Wind, S
olar &G
eothermal
Pow
er Gen
HydroPow
er
Generation
Biofuels
& BioPower Fossil &NuclearThermal Power
Generation
From Skaggs and Hibbard, 2012
Climate Variability
And Change
LAND FOR WATER►Water-Capture & Watershed►Ground Cover Vegetation►Hydro-Geology►Ecosystems
LAND FOR ENERGY►Infrastructure▪dams/reservoirs▪mines/wells ▪power plants▪solar & wind farms▪power lines▪pipelines▪railways▪refineries▪biomass feedstock & biofuels production►CCS►Energy Mineral Deposits
WATER FOR LAND ►Forests & Ecosystems►Crop & Animal Agriculture►Mining/Energy Extraction►Industrial, Municipal, Commercial & ResidentialWATER FOR ENERGY ►Extraction►Cooling►Processing►Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)ENERGY FOR LAND►Development ►Transportation ►Economic Productivity►Resource Extraction & ConversionENERGY FOR WATER►Pumping►Transport►Treatment ►Conditioning
Climate, Drought and Energy:Impacts on Individual Sectors and Interactions
In Texas, local gas shale production shut down in 2011 and crop failures continued through 2012
Water Use for Electricity Generation
Macknick et al. 2010
Averyt et al. 2011
Water for Energy: Already Stressed?
Regional Characteristics:Drought, Heat, Energy and LandIn the Northeast, thermo-electric power plants experienced de-ratings in summer of 2012 due to elevated water temperatures exceeding EPA regulations.
Rising river temperatures and power plant de-ratings in 2012.
Regional Characteristics: Land, Energy and Water Competition between energy and food? Utility scale requirements for renewables?
Food before fuel is a state issue
USDA, BIOtechNOW (2012)
Corn in Belleville, IL Bloomberg (2012)
The climate wrench
Renewables and land constraints
SoCal connected (2012) Brightsource & desert tortoise
Regional Characteristics: The PNW - Land, Energy and Water
Climate Impacts: Northwest ▪ Reduced summer stream flows ▪ Reduced forest production ▪ Reduced Salmon production ▪ Coastal erosion
Regional Characteristics: National View - Land, Energy and Water
Climate Impacts: Northeast ▪ Inc. heat waves/reduced air quality ▪ Inc. variability in water resources ▪ Inc. growing season ▪ Inc. threat to native species
Climate Impacts: Southwest
▪ Inc. flooding risk to infrastructure▪ Inc. water stress▪ Inc. vegetation change▪ Reduced forming, tourism and urban growth
Climate Impacts: Great Plains▪ Rural to urban migration▪ Reduced water resources▪ Reduced farming and ranching
Climate Impacts: Midwest
▪ Inc. heat waves/ reduced air quality▪ Storm and sea level induced flooding▪ Reduced agricultural prod.▪ Reduced fisheries and tourism
Climate Impacts: Southeast
▪ Strom/sea level damage of infrastructure▪ Reduced water availability▪ Ecosystem impacts▪ Reduced quality of life
Climate Impacts: Alaska ▪ Thawing permafrost damage oninfrastructure ▪ Decreased soil moisture ▪ Vegetation Change ► Inc. growing season
Climate Impacts: Hawaii ▪ Strom/sea level damage of infrastructure▪ Reduced freshwater availability ▪ Coastal and fisheries ecosystem damage
DRAFT
SUMMARY
There are no silver bullets or simple answers
The intersects of land, energy and water have unique regional characteristics: both with regard to constraints and endowments
Informed decisions regarding tradeoffs and consequences for mitigation and adaption must include integrated frameworks and campaigns (e.g., NGEE, CARVE, ABOVE) that account for:
Decision making criteriaPhysical, biological, social, economic and energy system processesNew observations that account for human processesCOMPROMISE
THANK YOU!
NCA chapters are available for public comment until April 12, 2013 from:
http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/
5 February, 2013
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