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总第 038 期 2010 年 01 月

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•Italy Ponders Wounds As Berlusconi Mends From Attack

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was recovering Monday in the hospital from a violent assault that many Italians blamed on the nation's increasingly vitriolic political climate.

The 73-year-old conservative premier continued to receive treatment for two broken teeth and a fractured nose, Alberto Zangrillo, his personal physician, told reporters at San Raffaele hospital in the northern Italian town of Segrate, near Milan.

The assault on Mr. Berlusconi sparked a wave of national soul-searching over what prompted Massimo Tartaglia, a 42-year-old graphic designer, to throw a miniature replica of Milan's Gothic cathedral at Mr. Berlusconi's face. Mr. Tartaglia, who has no criminal record, remained in police custody, being questioned by Milan prosecutors.

Mr. Tartaglia's attorney didn't respond to email requests for comment sent to her law firm.

The attack stunned many Italians accustomed to seeing the media-tycoon-turned-politician face down critics with a smile. Recent months have brought scrutiny of his personal life, amid reports of entanglements with young women, divorce proceedings with his wife and the recent resumption of two of his criminal trials for tax fraud and corruption.

Mr. Berlusconi has denied the charges and sustained an upbeat and combative public image.Many analysts and lawmakers said in recent months that public debate had come under the sway of ill will felt toward Mr. Berlusconi.

"The aggression against . . . Berlusconi is the result of a climate of hate and tension, fed by those who identify him as the embodiment of all evil," said Domenico Nania, vice president of the Italian Senate and a member of Mr. Berlusconi's People of Freedom party.

San Raffaele's chairman, Rev. Luigi Verze, said Mr. Berlusconi expressed disbelief over the attack when the priest visited him Monday morning. Fr. Verze quoted the premier saying, "I don't understand why people hate me to this degree."

Interior Minister Roberto Maroni told a news conference that groups praising Mr. Tartaglia had sprouted overnight on Facebook. One Facebook page dedicated to Mr. Tartaglia supporters listed more than 65,000 fans. Such groups, Mr. Maroni said, were "inciting criminal activity."

意大利总理挨砸为哪般？因暴力袭击受伤入院治疗的意大利总理贝鲁斯科尼 (Silvio Berlusconi) 周一仍在康复中。很多意大利人把他的受伤归咎于意大利越来越刻薄的政治气候。

贝鲁斯科尼的私人医生桑格里洛 (Alberto Zangrillo) 在距米兰不远的意大利北部城镇赛格拉特的 San Raffaele 医院对记者说，这位 73 岁的保守派总理仍在接受治疗，他两颗牙齿受损、鼻子骨折。

贝鲁斯科尼的受袭激起了全国上下的反思，人们想弄明白是什么原因促使 42 岁的平面设计师塔尔塔利亚 (Massimo Tartaglia) 朝贝鲁斯科尼脸上扔了一个米兰哥特式教堂的小雕像。塔尔塔利亚没有犯罪纪录，目前仍被警方扣押，接受米兰检察官的讯问。

塔尔塔利亚的律师没有回复记者请求置评的电子邮件。

这次袭击事件令很多意大利人大吃一惊，他们本来已经习惯看著由传媒大亨转型为政界人士的贝鲁斯科尼微笑应对批评者。近几个月，贝鲁斯科尼的私生活受到了舆论的指摘，有报导说他与年轻女人有纠葛、正在与妻子办离婚，最近还有两起关于他逃税和贪污的刑事审判重新开始。

贝鲁斯科尼否认了这些指控，并保持了积极、好战的公众形像。很多分析人士和议员们近几个月都说，在对贝鲁斯科尼的恶意看法的影响下，公众展开了论战。

意大利参议院副议长、贝鲁斯科尼所在的自由人民党 (People of Freedom) 成员纳尼亚 (Domenico Nania) 说，对贝鲁斯科尼的袭击是仇恨和紧张气氛的结果，那些认为他罪大恶极的人对此起了推波助澜的作用。

San Raffaele 医院董事长瓦泽 (Luigi Verze) 说，当他周一早间去看望贝鲁斯科尼时，贝鲁斯科尼对袭击表示难以置信。瓦泽引述贝鲁斯科尼的话说，我不明白人们为什么这么恨我。

意大利内政部长马洛尼 (Roberto Maroni) 在新闻发布会上说，赞扬塔尔塔利亚的Facebook群如雨后春笋般在一夜之间出现。一个塔尔塔利亚支持者的 Facebook页面已经有 6.5万多名注册粉丝。他说，这样的群是在激发犯罪活动。

总第 038 期 2010 年 01 月



•Expats Head Home To Find Jobs With unemployment at 10% and prospects for finding work bleak, foreign-born professionals who came to the United States in search of better job opportunities and prosperity are now retreating.

HSBC Bank International's 2009 Expat Explorer survey found that 23% of U.S.-based expats are considering returning home, compared with 15% elsewhere in the world. The most frequently cited reason was increasingly limited career prospects, according to the survey of more than 3,100 expats, defined as anyone over 18 living outside their country of origin.

Many of these workers perceive better opportunities back home or in other parts of the world.Many home countries have made significant economic strides in the past decade, making them more appealing to expats living in the U.S.

"When people came here a decade ago from India and China, they left behind a land where the opportunities aren't nearly what they are today," says Mr. Wadhwa. He expects more than 100,000 expats to return to India in the next five years and says human-resource directors in India and China he has surveyed have noticed a tenfold increase in the number of resumes from the U.S.

And recruiters say in most cases, salaries will be equivalent to or better than what the employees were making in the U.S., although adjusted to the living costs in the new country.

What's more, foreign-based companies and U.S. companies with divisions abroad are actively looking to attract displaced talent in the U.S. Eileen Finn, a New York-based executive recruiter, is currently working on a search for a chief financial officer to be based in India. The global financial-services firm that employed her specifically requested an Indian national working in the U.S., the U.K. or other areas with high unemployment.

Ms. Finn says part of what makes these expats attractive to employers is that they have Western experience, the are more willing to return than in times of economic prosperity, they assimilate well into the culture, and they don't necessarily expect the generous expat packages -- relocation costs, travel and other perks -- that a U.S. citizen would.

Charley Polachi, co-founder of Polachi Access Executive Search in Framingham, Mass., currently is vying for a job to fill several expat spots for a West Coast venture capital firm with operations in India and China.

He says the firm is specifically looking for Indian and Chinese nationals in the U.S. because they have Western skill sets and the cultural, social and language skills necessary to succeed abroad.

在美外国人争相变海归

美国失业率高达 10% 、找工作的前景黯淡，在这样的情况下，来美国寻找更好工作机会和更大成就的外国专业人士如今纷纷开始回国。

汇丰国际 (HSBC Bank International)2009 年对 3,100 多名外派人员进行的调查显示，在美国的外派人员中有 23% 正在考虑回国，而世界其他地方的比例则为 15% 。这项调查显示，最常提到的原因是越来越受限的职业前景。外派人员的定义是居住在母国之外、年龄在18 岁以上的人。

其中很多人认为回国或在世界其他地区会有更好的机会。过去 10 年来，很多国家都在经济上取得了显著的进步，使之对生活在美国的外派人员更具吸引力。

瓦德瓦说， 10 年前人们从印度和中国来美国的时候，那些国家的机会远远不及现在。他预计未来 5 年中将有 10 多万印度人回国，并说他调查过的印度和中国的人力资源主管们注意到来自美国的简历增加了 10倍。

招聘者说，在大部分情况下，根据本国生活成本调整后的工资与在美国的水平相当，甚至还要高。

此外，外国公司和在国外有分支机构的美国公司都在积极吸引在美国的外国人才。驻纽约的高管猎头费恩 (Eileen Finn) 目前正在寻找一位可驻印度的首席财务长。雇佣她的这家全球性金融服务公司特别要求要找一位在美国、英国或其他高失业率地区工作的印度人。

费恩说，这些外派人员吸引雇主的原因之一是他们拥有西方的经验，相对经济繁荣时期，在经济低迷时期他们更愿意回国，他们能够很好地融入文化，不一定会像美国人一样要求丰厚的外派薪酬，包括搬家费、差旅费和其他费用。

马萨诸塞州高管猎头公司 Polachi Access Executive Search联合创始人波拉奇 (Charley Polachi) 目前正在竞争一份工作，为西海岸的一家在印度和中国有业务的风险投资公司找到几位外派人员供职。

他说，该公司特别要找在美国的印度和中国人，因为他们拥有西方技能和在国外获得成功所必需的文化、社会和语言能力。

总第 038 期 2010 年 01 月



•Debtor's Dilemma: Pay The Mortgage Or Walk Away Should I stay or should I go? That is the question more Americans are asking as the housing market continues to drag.

A growing number of people in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, where home prices have plunged, are considering what is known as a "strategic default," walking away from their mortgages not out of necessity but because they believe it is in their best financial interests.

Walking away isn't risk-free. A foreclosure stays on a consumer's credit record for seven years and can send a credit score (based on a scale of 300 to 850) plunging by as much as 160 points, according to Fair Isaac Corp., which provides tools for analyzing credit records. A lower credit score means auto and other loans are likely to come with much higher interest rates, and credit card issuers may charge more interest or refuse to issue a card.

In addition, many states give lenders varying degrees of scope to seize bank deposits, cars or other assets of people who default on mortgages.

Even so, in neighborhoods with high concentrations of foreclosures, "it's going to be really difficult to prevent a cascade effect" as one strategic default emboldens others to take that drastic step, says Paola Sapienza, a professor of finance at Northwestern University. A study by researchers at Northwestern and the University of Chicago found that as many as one in four defaults may be strategic.

Driving this phenomenon is the rising number of households that are deeply "under water," owing much more than the current value of their homes. First American CoreLogic, a real-estate information company, estimates that 5.3 million U.S. households have mortgage balances at least 20% higher than their homes' value, and 2.2 million of those households are at least 50% under water. The problem is concentrated in Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada.

Another risk for defaulters is that banks could sell the rights to pursue claims to collection agencies or other firms, which could then dun the borrowers for up to 20 years after a foreclosure. Such threats appear to deter some borrowers. A recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond found that under-water borrowers were 20% more likely to default in a state where mortgage lenders can't pursue claims on other assets than in those where they can.

还款？断供？美国房奴面临艰难抉择走还是留？随著房地产市场继续低迷，越来越多的美国人都在问这个问题。

在房价大幅下跌的亚利桑那、加利福尼亚、佛罗里达和内华达州，越来越多的人都在考虑 “策略性违约”，也就是甩手不还房贷，但并非出于迫不得已，而是因为他们相信这在财务上对自己最为有利。

断供并非没有风险。提供信用记录分析工具的 Fair Isaac Corp.称，止赎事件会在消费者的信用记录上保留 7 年，可能会让信用分数（以 300 分到 850 分为基础）最多减去 160 分。信用分数下降后，汽车贷款和其他贷款的利率可能会高得多，信用卡发行机构也可能收取更高的利息，或者是拒绝发卡。

另外，很多州授予贷款机构不同程度的权限，让它们没收抵押贷款违约者的银行存款、汽车或其他资产。

即便如此，西北大学 (Northwestern University)金融学教授萨皮恩扎 (Paola Sapienza) 说，在止赎房产高度集中的社区，随著一个人的策略性违约鼓舞其他人也采取这种激进步骤，就会很难防止“瀑布效应”。西北大学和芝加哥大学(University of Chicago) 的研究人员在一项研究中发现，高达四分之一的违约案例可能属于策略性违约。

这种现象背后，是陷入严重“负资产”的家庭数量越来越多，也就是所欠贷款超过了房产的当前价值。房地产信息提供商 First American CoreLogic估计，有 530万美国家庭的抵押贷款余额超过其房产市值的 20%以上；其中 220万家庭负资产比重超过 50% 。问题集中在亚利桑那、加利福尼亚、佛罗里达、密歇根和内华达州。

违约者面临的另一个风险是，银行可能会把追索权出售给催收机构和其他公司，这些公司有可能在止赎后最长 20 年的时间里向借款人讨债。这类威胁似乎让一些借款人犹豫了。里士满联邦储备银行 (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) 最新研究发现，在抵押贷款放贷机构不能追索其他资产的情况中，相比可以追索其他资产的情况，负资产借款人的违约可能性要高出 20% 。

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总第 038 期 2010 年 01 月



•Behind 'Avatar' Momentum Are Sales Boosts From Abroad Less than three weeks after "Avatar" hit theaters, the high-tech science fiction epic is already the most successful movie ever in Russia, with $55.5 million in box-office receipts.

In France, the movie has raked in $85.6 million -- more money than in any country besides the U.S -- while Germans have bought $56.1 million worth of "Avatar" tickets.

The movie's resonance with audiences abroad is a crucial propellant behind "Avatar's" ascent to the box-office stratosphere, where it topped the $1 billion mark in ticket sales this past weekend.

Two thirds of the total box-office receipts so far have been generated abroad. "Avatar" sold $352.1 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada after 17 days, while its international haul stood at $670.2 million as of the weekend, according to Hollywood.com.

Foreign audiences routinely flock to Hollywood "event" movies like the "Harry Potter" series, "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy and the "Pirates of the Caribbean" franchise. Those films also took in about two-thirds of their revenue overseas -- underscoring the growing importance of foreign audiences for American studios that have seen their revenue from DVD sales dwindle.

Globalization has raised the financial importance of many overseas markets, including Russia and Brazil -- both of which are among the top 10 markets for "Avatar," said Amir Malin, a managing principal at Qualia Capital, an investment firm focused on the media and entertainment industry. "Five or 10 years ago, these markets were an afterthought," Mr. Malin says.

"Avatar" also appears to be benefitting from a variety of factors, ranging from director James Cameron's rabid fan base to higher ticket prices charged for the movie's 3-D screenings and even its politics.

Mr. Cameron has a special place in the hearts of Russian theater operators, since "Titanic" brought their industry back from the brink of extinction more than a decade ago.

Tickets for 3-D screenings typically cost about 50% more than for a two-dimensional movie, a fact that has fueled the sales numbers for "Avatar." About 30% of the screens outside the U.S. are showing the picture in 3-D, according to distributor Twentieth Century Fox; those have generated 64% of the movie's $666.7 million international total. Twentieth Century Fox is owned by News Corp., which also publishes The Wall Street Journal.

Some moviegoers abroad are drawn to what they see as an anti-capitalist message in the film's plot.

《阿凡达》热潮席卷全球 3D 科幻史诗片《阿凡达》在俄罗斯上映还不到三周，就已经成为该国有史以来最成功的影片，截至目前的票房收入为 5,550万美元。

在法国，该片目前总票房为 8,560万美元，使法国成为除美国之外票房最高的国家，而德国票房则达到 5,610万美元。

《阿凡达》在海外观众中引起的轰动是推动该片票房飙升的重要动力。上周末全球票房超过了 10亿美元。

全球票房目前为止有三分之二来自海外。据票房跟踪网站 Hollywood.com 的数据，《阿凡达》在美国和加拿大上映 17天后总票房达 3.521亿美元，而截至上周末的海外票房为6.702亿美元。

外国观众常常会蜂拥至影院观看好莱坞“事件”大片，比如《哈利波特》 (Harry Potter)系列、《指环王》 (The Lord of the Rings)三部曲和《加勒比海盗》 (Pirates of the Caribbean)系列。这些影片也有约三分之二的票房是来自海外，彰显出外国观众对遭遇了 DVD销售下滑的美国制片公司日益增大的重要性。

专注于媒体和娱乐产业的投资公司 Qualia Capital执行负责人玛林 (Amir Malin) 说，全球化提升了很多海外市场的金融重要性，包括俄罗斯和巴西。这两个国家都在《阿凡达》前十大市场之列。他说，五年或十年前，这些市场还没有那么重要。

《阿凡达》看来还得益于一系列因素，从导演詹姆斯 ?卡梅隆 (James Cameron) 的狂热粉丝群，到 3D 影片更高的票价，甚至还有影片的政治意义。

自 10 多年前《泰坦尼克》 (Titanic)将俄罗斯的媒体和娱乐产业从灭绝的边缘拯救回来之后，卡梅隆在俄罗斯影院运营商心目中就一直有著特殊的地位。

3D 影片的票价通常比普通影片要高出约 50% ，这一事实推高了《阿凡达》的票房。据影片发行商二十世纪福克斯 (Twentieth Century Fox) 的数据，美国之外约有 30% 的放映都是3D版本，在该片 6.667亿美元的海外票房中， 3D 影片占了 64% 。二十世纪福克斯隶属于新闻集团 (News Corp.) ，后者也是的出版商。

一些海外观众认为该片情节包含一种反资本家的信息，因而被吸引到影院观影。

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