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㜿㈡㔝ᕝὶᇦ✚ࡢ㞷ศᕸ≉ᛶㄪᰝ ⚟ᓥᏛඹ⏕ࢸࢫࢩ⌮ᕤᏛ㢮 ᾈኴ 㕥ᮌ ⤢⨾ ᕝ㉺ Ύᶞ 㸯㸬ࡌࡣ ẼೃẼ㸪Ỉᚠ⎔᥎ィ㸪Ẽೃኚ㉳ᅉࡓࡋᑗ᮶㝆㞵㇟ᴟ➃ ぢ✚IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation ୡ⏺ࡢࡃᆅᇦ 21 ୡ⣖୰ ࡅ࠾㝆㞵Ⓨ⏕㢖ᗘ㸪⥲ࡣ࠸㝆Ỉ㔞༨ᙉ㝆㞵ቑຍ 1) ࡋࠋࡀ࡞ࡋࡓࡋ࠺ࡇᴟ➃ⓗ㇟Ⓨ⏕㸪㝆㞵㝆㞷ᵝ ᥎ Gorman ࡇࠕ㸪ᮇࡅ࠾ᖹᆒ㝆㞷㔞ὀ┠ࡀࡓࡁ㐍⾜ẖᖺ⏕㝆㞷ᖜᖜᴟ➃⬟ᛶ࠶ࡀ ぢ㐣ࡉࡈ 2) 2014 12 11 ᪥Ẽ㇟ᗇ㸪⎔ࡧቃ┬ୡ⣖ᮎண ᪥ᮏᓥ㝆㞷㔞ኚබ⾲㸪ᮾ᪥ᮏ᪥ᮏᾏഃ-146cm ⤖ࡢᯝሗ࿌ࠋࡓࡋձ ᮏᕞ᪥ᮏᾏഃୡ⏺᭷✚ࡢ㞷ᆅᖏᒓ㸪᪥ᮏᓥ⮬యᕧどⓗ㞷ịᅪቃ⏺㏆⨨㸪Ẽೃኚᛂᩄឤ✚㞷ኚ⬟ᛶ ղ ᮾᆅ᪉᪥ᮏᾏഃ㝣ᆅ᪉㸪Ꮨす㧗ᮾపẼᅽ㓄⨨୰ᅜ㝣⇱㸪ᐮ෭Ẽᅋὶ㎸࠸ࡍᆅᇦ㸪ᮾ㐍ᐮ෭⇱Ẽᅋ ᪥ᮏᾏ✵㏻㐣ỈẼᏘ㝆㞷㞼Ⓨ㐩ࡏࡉ 3)  ࡢᬮ㝆㞷㝆㞵ኚࡇࠋձ㸪ղཎᅉ㝆㞷⌧㇟ࡋࠋࡀ࡞ࡋ㸪Ẽ㇟ᗇ㸪⎔ࡧቃ┬ሗ࿌㸪᪥ᮏᓥ㸵༊ᇦࡓࡋᖹᖺ ࢺ࡞㸪ᴟ➃㇟ホ౯ࡓࡋ╔ࠋ࠸࡞ࡣẼೃኚᙳ㡪ぢ 㸪ᕧどⓗ㡿ᇦࢺࡢぢ✚୪⾜㸪ᒁᡤⓗᆅᇦ㸪ᴟ➃ ࡢ㇟Ⓨ⏕⬟ᛶ᥎ィࡇࡃ࠸㔜せ࠼࠸Ẽೃኚక㝆Ỉ⌧㇟౫ᏑỈ㈨※㸪Ỉ⅏ᐖ㸪Ỉ⎔ቃಀၥ㢟ᤊሙ㸪♫ᐇ㋃୰ᑠ㡿ᇦ≉ᛶ ᢕᥱษᮃࡓࡋ࠺ࡇࠋ୰ᑠ㡿ᇦ≉ᛶ⪃៖㸪Ỉ㈨※௦㸪Ỉ ⅏ᐖࢡࢫᅇ㑊⟇㸪Ỉ⎔ቃᨵၿ➼ලయⓗẼೃኚ㐺ᛂ⟇㆟ㄽ୰ᑠつᶍ㡿ᇦ㇟⌧ࡢぢ✚᪉ἲ㸪Ẽೃࢣࢫ ࡀࢢ 4) ࡋࠋࢣࢫࡢࢢᐇ㛵㸪ィ⟬ᚠ⎔ ⣔⤫ࡅࡔࡃ࡞ࡣ㸪ᑠ㡿ᇦᑐᆅᇦᅛ᭷ᛶᢕᥱᚲせᆅᇦᅛ᭷ᛶᢕᥱ㝆㞷㸪✚㞷㇟⌧ࡢሙ㸪✚㞷㈓␃( ࡃࡋ)㐣⛬㝆㞷ࡣࡃࡋ㝆㞷ᚋᙧ㊧ṧᏑࡏࡉ≉ᚩ᭷ 5) ࡓࡢࡑࠋEstimated snow characteristic distribution base on field survey in Agano river at Fukushima University by Kota INOUE, Ayami SUZUKI and Seiki KAWAGOE 東北地域災害科学研究 第51巻(2015) 25

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  • IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events

    and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation 21

    1)

    Gorman

    2) 2014 12 11

    -146cm

    3)

    4)

    (

    ) 5)

    Estimated snow characteristic distribution base on field survey in Agano river at Fukushima University by Kota INOUE, Ayami SUZUKI and Seiki KAWAGOE

    東北地域災害科学研究 第51巻(2015) 25

  • ( -1 )

    3

    210km 7,710km2

    ( 12,671 106m3 4 )

    6)

    AMeDAS

    7)

    7)

    Hori 2009-20108)

    -1 ( )

    26

  • 9)

    49

    (

    R49 )

    252 (

    R252 )

    ( SKY )

    ( B1,H1) ( -2

    ) 2 ( 26 2

    21-22 ) 4 (

    26 4 26 ) 26 1 4

    1

    -2

    -3

    27

  • 15-40cm 2 ( )

    15cm 1

    -3 -3

    160cm 110

    190cm

    50cm

    -4

    (

    )

    -4

    -5 Cl-/Na+

    28

  • Cl-/NA+ Cl-/NA+

    Cl-/NA+=1.8 10)

    -5 -5

    Na+ Cl- SO4- NO3- Na+

    Cl-

    Cl-/NA+ (Cl-/NA+ 1.8) Cl-/NA+ 1.8

    1.8

    ( 5 AMeDAS ) 25 2 20

    -6

    -6

    -7 25 26

    29

  • 25

    -7 25

    Cl-/NA+

    Cl-/NA+=1.8

    25

    ( -8 )

    (S-8)

    1) IPCC : Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/ , 2011. 2) Paul A. O’Gorman Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change Nature Geoscience Vol.5, pp.697–700 doi:10.1038/ngeo1568 2012. 3) Akiyama, T. Time and spatial variations of heavy snowfalls in the Japan Seacostal region. Part II: Large-scale situationsfor typical spatial distribution of heavy snowfalls classified by EOF. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 59, pp.591-590,. 1981. 4) Iizumi, T., M. Nishimori and F. Uno: Climate downscaling as a source of uncertainty in projecting local climate change impacts. Journal of Metrological Society Japan, Vol.90, pp.83-90. 5) Vol.62 pp.185-196, 2000. 6)

    No.21 pp.167-172 2013. 7) Vol.24pp.1-6, 2010 8) Hori, M. E., J. Inoue, T. Kikuchi, M. Honda, and Y. Tachibana, 2011: Recurrence of Intraseasonal Cold Air Outbreak during the 2009/2010 Winter in Japan and its Ties to the Atmospheric Condition over the Barents-Kara Sea. SOLA, Vol.7,pp. 25-28 9) Vol..70 pp.119-129, 2012 10) Na/ClNo.51, 55-55, 2004

    -8

    30