a first look at macroeconomics 20 chapter 總體經濟學概貌

A FIRST LOOK AT MACROECONOMICS 2

0CHAPTER

總體經濟學概貌

Objectives

After studying this chapter, you will able to Describe the origins of macroeconomics ( 總體經濟

學） and the problems it deals with

Describe the long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in economic growth( 經濟成長 ), unemployment( 失業 ), inflation( 通貨膨脹 ), and government and international surpluses and deficits( 政府預算盈餘與赤字、貿易盈餘與赤字 )

Identify the macroeconomic policy challenges and describe the tools available for meeting them

What Will Your World Be Like

Will tomorrow’s world be more prosperous than today?

Will jobs be plentiful?

Will the cost of living be stable?

Will the government and the nation go into deficit （進入赤字狀態） again?

Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics

Economists began to study economic growth, inflation, and international payments during the 1750s

Modern macroeconomics dates from the Great Depression （經濟大恐慌） , a decade (1929-1939) of high unemployment and stagnant production （高度失業及生產停滯） throughout the world economy.

John Maynard Keynes book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, began the subject. => 凱因斯學派

總體經濟學的緣起與議題

Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics

Short-Term Versus Long-Term Goals

Keynes focused on the short-term—on unemployment 失業 and lost production( 低度生產） .

“In the long run,” said Keynes, “we’re all dead.”

During the 1970s and 1980s, macroeconomists became more concerned about the long-term—inflation （通膨） and economic growth ( 經濟成長 ).

總體經濟學的緣起與議題

Economic Growth and Fluctuations

Economic growth is the expansion of the economy’s production possibilities—an outward shifting PPF （生產可能線） .

We measure economic growth by the increase in real GDP.

Real GDP—real gross domestic product ( 實質國內生產毛額 )—is the value of the total production of all the nation’s farms, factories, shops, and offices, measured in the prices of a single year.

1.1.國內生產毛額的定義：國內生產毛額的定義：一個國家在一段期一個國家在一段期間內所生產出來最終財貨與勞務的市場價值間內所生產出來最終財貨與勞務的市場價值

2.2. 名目與實質名目與實質

1.1.國內生產毛額的定義：國內生產毛額的定義：一個國家在一段期一個國家在一段期間內所生產出來最終財貨與勞務的市場價值間內所生產出來最終財貨與勞務的市場價值

2.2. 名目與實質名目與實質

經濟成長與波動


Economic Growth in the United States

Figure 20.1 shows real GDP in the United States from 1962 to 2002.The figure highlights:

Fluctuations of real GDP

Smoother growth of potential GDP( 充分就業下的 GDP)



Potential GDP is the value of real GDP when all the economy’s labour, capital, land, and entrepreneurial ability are fully employed.

During the 1970s and early 1980s, real GDP growth slowed—a productivity growth slowdown.



Real GDP fluctuates around potential GDP in a business cycle( 景氣循環）— a periodic but irregular up-and-down movement in production.



Every business cycle has two phases:

1. A recession （緊縮衰退）

2. An expansion （擴張）

and two turning points:

1. A peak （高峰）

2. A trough （低谷）

A recession is a period during which real GDP decreases for at least two successive quarters.

An expansion is a period during which real GDP increases.



Figure 20.2 shows the most recent U.S. cycle.



Figure 20.3 shows the long-term growth trend and cycles.



Economic Growth Around the WorldFigure 20.4(a) shows the growth rate of real GDP in the United States alongside that of the world average growth rate.



Economic Growth Around the World

Figure 20.4(b) compares the growth rate of real GDP in the United States with those of other countries and regions.

The economies of Asia have grown persistently faster than those of the rest of the world.


The Okun Gap

The Okun gap is the gap between potential GDP and actual real GDP and is another name for the output gap（產出缺口） .

Figure 20.5(b) shows that the Okun gaps since 1973 are $2.7 trillion （百萬兆） or about 3 months real GDP.

Economic Growth and Fluctuations經濟成長與波動

Benefits and Costs of Economic Growth

The main benefit of long-term economic growth is expanded consumption possibilities （擴張的消費可能） , including more health care for the poor and elderly, more research on cancer and AIDS, more space exploration, better roads, more and better housing, and a cleaner environment.

The costs of economic growth are forgone consumption in the present （放棄目前的消費） , more rapid depletion of nonrenewable natural resources （非再生天然資源的快速消耗） , and move frequent job changes （工作轉換的頻繁） .

Economic Growth and Fluctuations經濟成長與波動

經濟成長的好處與代價

Jobs and Unemployment

Jobs 工作

The U.S. economy created around 2 million jobs a year, on the average during the 1990s.

But the number fluctuates and since 2001 the pace of job creation has been slow.

工作與失業


Unemployment 失業

Unemployment is a state in which a person does not have a job but is available for work, willing to work, and has made some effort to find work within the previous four weeks.

The labour force ( 勞動力 )is the total number of people who are employed and unemployed.

The unemployment rate ( 失業率） is the percentage of the people in the labour force who are unemployed.

A discouraged worker （沮喪勞工） is a person who available for work, willing to work, but who has given up the effort to find work.

工作與失業


----達到工作年齡的人口達到工作年齡的人口 ((1616歲以及歲以及 1616歲歲以上的全部人口以上的全部人口 ))可分成兩群 :

----達到工作年齡的人口達到工作年齡的人口 ((1616歲以及歲以及 1616歲歲以上的全部人口以上的全部人口 ))可分成兩群 :

1. 勞動力 (labor force)1. 勞動力 (labor force)

2. 非勞動力 (Not in the labor force)2. 非勞動力 (Not in the labor force)

---- 勞動力中又分成兩群：勞動力中又分成兩群： 1. 就業 (Employed)1. 就業 (Employed) 2. 失業

(Unemployed) 2. 失業(Unemployed)

工作與失業

100勞動力

失業人口數失業率


Unemployment in the United States

Figure 20.6 shows the unemployment rate in the United States since 1926.

During the 1930s, the unemployment rate hit 20 percent

工作與失業


During recent recessions, the unemployment rate increased

The unemployment rate has averaged 6 percent since World War II

工作與失業


Unemployment Around the WorldFigure 20.7 compares the unemployment rate in the United States with those in Western Europe, Japan, and Canada.

U.S. unemployment, on the average, lies in the middle of the other countries shown.

工作與失業


Why Unemployment Is a ProblemUnemployment is a serious economic, social, and personal problem for two main reasons:

Lost production and incomes 產出與所得的損失 Lost human capital 人力資本的損失The loss of a job brings an immediate loss of income and production—a temporary problem.

A prolonged spell of unemployment can bring permanent damage through the loss of human capital.

工作與失業

Inflation

Inflation is a process of rising prices.

We measure the inflation rate as the percentage change in the average level of prices or the price level.

The Consumer Price Index—the CPI—is a common measure of the price level.

1. 家庭用品 ( 反應需求面的物價指數） 2. 拉式與畢式

通膨

Inflation

Inflation in the United States Figure 20.8 shows the inflation rate in the United States since 1961.

Inflation was low during the 1960s

Inflation increased during the 1970s

Inflation was lowered in two waves during the 1980s and 1990s

通膨

Inflation

The inflation rate fluctuates, but it is always positive—the price level has not fallen during the years shown in the figure.

A falling price level—a negative inflation rate—is called deflation （通貨緊縮） .

通膨

Inflation

Inflation Around the World Figure 20.9 shows the inflation rate in the United States compared with other countries.

U.S. inflation has been similar to that in other industrial countries

U.S. inflation has been much lower than that in developing countries

通膨

Inflation

Is Inflation a Problem?

Unpredictable changes in the inflation rate are a problem because they redistribute income in arbitrary ways between employers and workers and between borrowers and lenders.

A high inflation rate is a problem because it diverts resources from productive activities to inflation forecasting.

通膨

Surpluses and Deficits 盈餘與赤字

Government Budget Surplus and Deficit

If a government collects more in taxes than it spends, it has a government budget surplus.

If a government spends more than it collects in taxes, it has a government budget deficit.


Figure 20.10(a) shows the changing surplus and deficit of the federal and provincial governments in the United States since 1971.

Persistent federal deficit during the 1970s through 1990s.

Surplus since 1998


International Surplus and Deficit 貿易盈餘與赤字If a nation imports more than it exports, it has an international deficit.

If a nation exports more than it imports, it has an international surplus.

The current account deficit ( 經常帳赤字 )or surplus is the balance of exports minus imports plus net interest paid to and received from the rest of the world.


Figure 20.10(b) shows The U.S. current account balance since 1962.

Persistent current account deficit since 1983

The deficit has swollen during the past few years

Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools 總體經濟政策的挑戰與工具

Five widely agreed policy challenges for macroeconomics are to:

1. Boost economic growth 提升經濟成長

2. Keep inflation low 維持低通膨

3. Stabilize the business cycle 穩定景氣循環

4. Reduce unemployment 降低失業率

5. Reduce government and international deficits 減少預算赤字與貿易赤字

Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools 總體經濟政策的挑戰與工具

Two broad groups of macroeconomic policy tools are :

1. Fiscal policy 財政政策— making changes in tax rates and government spending

2. Monetary policy 貨幣政策— changing interest rates and changing the amount of money in the economy

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a first look at macroeconomics 20 chapter 總體經濟學概貌

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