การเปลีย่นแปลงของภาวะ ... · 2017-08-30 · thailand –...
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การเปลีย่นแปลงของภาวะเศรษฐกิจโลก กบั ทิศทางอนาคตของประเทศไทย
กอบศกัด์ิ ภตูระกลู ผูช่้วยรฐัมนตรีประจ ำส ำนักนำยกรฐัมนตรี
17 สิงหำคม 2560
โลกก าลงัเปลีย่นแปลง
Disruptive Innovation
• Transform complicated and costly to simpler, cheaper product
Sustainable Innovation
• Replace old products with new products
• LED TV instead of black and white
Efficiency Innovation
• Reduce cost of making and distributing existing products
• Example: Toyota Just-in-time manufacturing
Clayton Christensen innovation model : Disruptive Technology
9000 BC
onwards
Medium of
exchange
5000 BC
onwards
Shell
Money
4000 – 2500 BC
Credit – Mesopotamian
tablets record ancient
loans and interest paid
2500 BC
Insurance –
Babylonian goods
transport insurance
1000 BC
Metal Money and
Coins – Early Chinese
“tool money” and
primitive coins
700 – 600 BC
Modern coinage –
Coinage takes modern
form in Lydia, western
Turkey
321 – 185 BC
Bills of exchange – Early
bills of exchange,
promissory notes,
Mauryan Empire, India
806 - 1023
Representative
money –
Banknotes and
paper money
appear in China
14th – 15th
century
Bonds and
Reinsurance
1602
Publicly listed
stock – Dutch East
India Comp. on
Amsterdam Stock
Exchange
1609
Standardized
currency – Issued
by Amsterdam
Exchange
(Wisselbank)
1688
Insurance
brokerage –
Edward
Lloyd’s
London
coffee house
1710
Futures –
Japanese
rice futures
market
1773
Check
clearing
house
1874
Standardized
futures
exchange
18th
century
Options –
First call
options on
some
Dutch
stocks
1913
Federal
Reserve
System
1950s
Credit Card –
Diners club,
Bank of
America
1938
Secondary
Mortgage
market –
Fannie
Mae
1949
Hedge
funds –
Alfred
Winslow
Jones
1960s
ATMs
operational
1972
Debit Card
1973
POS
Terminal
1974
ACH
1981
CHIPS -
same day
settlement
1988
Basel I
1999
Online
payment
service
Source: Rethinking Financial Innovation, World Economic Forum (p.16 – 23)
History of financial innovations
9000 BC
onwards
Medium of
exchange
5000 BC
onwards
Shell
Money
4000 – 2500 BC
Credit – Mesopotamian
tablets record ancient
loans and interest paid
2500 BC
Insurance –
Babylonian goods
transport insurance
1000 BC
Metal Money and
Coins – Early Chinese
“tool money” and
primitive coins
700 – 600 BC
Modern coinage –
Coinage takes modern
form in Lydia, western
Turkey
321 – 185 BC
Bills of exchange – Early
bills of exchange,
promissory notes,
Mauryan Empire, India
806 - 1023
Representative
money –
Banknotes and
paper money
appear in China
14th – 15th
century
Bonds and
Reinsurance
1602
Publicly listed
stock – Dutch East
India Comp. on
Amsterdam Stock
Exchange
1609
Standardized
currency – Issued
by Amsterdam
Exchange
(Wisselbank)
1688
Insurance
brokerage –
Edward
Lloyd’s
London
coffee house
1710
Futures –
Japanese
rice futures
market
1773
Check
clearing
house
1874
Standardized
futures
exchange
18th
century
Options –
First call
options on
some
Dutch
stocks
1913
Federal
Reserve
System
1950s
Credit Card –
Diners club,
Bank of
America
1938
Secondary
Mortgage
market –
Fannie
Mae
1949
Hedge
funds –
Alfred
Winslow
Jones
1960s
ATMs
operational
1972
Debit Card
1973
POS
Terminal
1974
ACH
1981
CHIPS -
same day
settlement
1988
Basel I
1999
Online
payment
service
Source: Rethinking Financial Innovation, World Economic Forum
History of financial innovations
9000 BC
onwards
Medium of
exchange
5000 BC
onwards
Shell
Money
4000 – 2500 BC
Credit – Mesopotamian
tablets record ancient
loans and interest paid
2500 BC
Insurance –
Babylonian goods
transport insurance
1000 BC
Metal Money and
Coins – Early Chinese
“tool money” and
primitive coins
700 – 600 BC
Modern coinage –
Coinage takes modern
form in Lydia, western
Turkey
321 – 185 BC
Bills of exchange – Early
bills of exchange,
promissory notes,
Mauryan Empire, India
806 - 1023
Representative
money –
Banknotes and
paper money
appear in China
14th – 15th
century
Bonds and
Reinsurance
1602
Publicly listed
stock – Dutch East
India Comp. on
Amsterdam Stock
Exchange
1609
Standardized
currency – Issued
by Amsterdam
Exchange
(Wisselbank)
1688
Insurance
brokerage –
Edward
Lloyd’s
London
coffee house
1710
Futures –
Japanese
rice futures
market
1773
Check
clearing
house
1874
Standardized
futures
exchange
18th
century
Options –
First call
options on
some
Dutch
stocks
1913
Federal
Reserve
System
1950s
Credit Card –
Diners club,
Bank of
America
1938
Secondary
Mortgage
market –
Fannie
Mae
1949
Hedge
funds –
Alfred
Winslow
Jones
1960s
ATMs
operational
1972
Debit Card
1973
POS
Terminal
1974
ACH
1981
CHIPS -
same day
settlement
1988
Basel I
1999
Online
payment
service
Source: Rethinking Financial Innovation, World Economic Forum
History of financial innovations
9000 BC
onwards
Medium of
exchange
5000 BC
onwards
Shell
Money
4000 – 2500 BC
Credit – Mesopotamian
tablets record ancient
loans and interest paid
2500 BC
Insurance –
Babylonian goods
transport insurance
1000 BC
Metal Money and
Coins – Early Chinese
“tool money” and
primitive coins
700 – 600 BC
Modern coinage –
Coinage takes modern
form in Lydia, western
Turkey
321 – 185 BC
Bills of exchange – Early
bills of exchange,
promissory notes,
Mauryan Empire, India
806 - 1023
Representative
money –
Banknotes and
paper money
appear in China
14th – 15th
century
Bonds and
Reinsurance
1602
Publicly listed
stock – Dutch East
India Comp. on
Amsterdam Stock
Exchange
1609
Standardized
currency – Issued
by Amsterdam
Exchange
(Wisselbank)
1688
Insurance
brokerage –
Edward
Lloyd’s
London
coffee house
1710
Futures –
Japanese
rice futures
market
1773
Check
clearing
house
1874
Standardized
futures
exchange
18th
century
Options –
First call
options on
some
Dutch
stocks
1913
Federal
Reserve
System
1950s
Credit Card –
Diners club,
Bank of
America
1938
Secondary
Mortgage
market –
Fannie
Mae
1949
Hedge
funds –
Alfred
Winslow
Jones
1960s
ATMs
operational
1972
Debit Card
1973
POS
Terminal
1974
ACH
1981
CHIPS -
same day
settlement
1988
Basel I
1999
Online
payment
service
Source: Rethinking Financial Innovation, World Economic Forum
History of financial innovations
Alipay, Alibaba, Ali Credit
Alipay, Alibaba, Ali Credit
Hard Disk Drive Industry
Apple
11
2. Global and Regional Supply Chain
Support the Emerging Regional Supply Chains Example: Minibea Cambodia
12
13
Nikon also relocated some of its manufacturing to Savan Park
Thilawa SEZ 14
Thilawa SEZ 15
3. Comparing to China and India, Thailand is too small as an investment destination
16
17 China’s One Belt, One Road
18 China’s One Belt, One Road
High Speed Train from China 19
Road Condition – R3A to China 20
Road Condition – R3A to China 21
Road Condition – R3A to China 22
23
4. Emergence of CLMV
IMF Forecast
CLMV is Becoming One of the Key Export Markets for Thailand 24
CLMV
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
US
ASEAN
China
Japan
EU
New Urban Centers in Asia 25
m
New Urbanization 26
27
Phnom Phen
28
City Mart - Yangon
A Thriving Market of 230 - 400 Million People 29
Bangladesh 160 Mil People
30
Integration of Roads and Motorways Improves quite Rapidly
31
Emerging New Land bridges for ASEAN and Asia
ประเทศไทยก าลงัเผชิญปัญหา
33
Why do Thailand need to change and reform ourselves?
GDP
34
GDP Comparison in 2015
Thailand 2.8 Malaysia 5.0 Indonesia 4.8 Philippines 5.9 Vietnam 6.7
35
Export Growth of Thailand
Our International Competitiveness has also been declining 36
Rising gap between rich and poor 37
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2531 2533 2535 2537 2539 2541 2543 2545 2547 2549 2550 2552 2554
Poorest 20% Richest 20%
Finally, comparing to China and India, Thailand is too small as an investment destination
38
Thailand 4.0
Meaning of Thailand 4.0 40
Thailand 4.0 = New Thailand
Target = Becoming a More Developed and Balanced Nation 41
New Generation of Infrastructure
Advanced and Innovative Industries
Better Livelihood of our People
Local Economy and HRD
New Set of Laws and Institutions
Thailand’s Transport Infrastructure Development Master Plan
Thailand’s Transport Infrastructure Development Master Plan
New Motorways 44
• 4 lane on Major corridor project
• Cover 11 routes 5,400 km
• Fiscal budget & Loan
• Completed 2,750 km (51%)
• Under construction 850 km
• Planning 1,800 km
Key Projects: Road Network
45 Source: Department of Highway
From - To Distance
(KM) Amount
(Mill. USD) Chachoengsao – Kaeng Khoi 106 360
Lop Buri - Nakhonsawan 118 420
Map Kabao – Thanon Chira Junction 132 370
Thanon Chira Junction - Khonkaen 185 410
Nakhonpathom - Hauhin 165 530
Prachuap Khiri Khan - Chumphon 167 500
Total 873 2,590
Double Track Construction 1st Phase
46
New Railways
Denchai- Chaengrai
Nam tok – Jadee 3 ong
Ubon – Chong mek
Rayong - Trad
New Route
47 Source : Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning
New Railways
Integration of Railway in GMS 48
Alignment of high
speed rail on dedicated
standard gauge track
Port
Department of Civil Aviation 28
AOT 6
Bangkok Airways 3
Military 1
Total 38
Suvarnabhumi, 47,910,904 , 72%
Don Muang, 3,424,915 , 5%
Phuket, 8,467,995 , 13%
Chiangmai, 3,880,037 , 6%
Hadyai, 1,869,113 , 3%
Chiangrai, 818,163 , 1%
Number of passengers 50
Expansion of Existing Airports as well as New Airports
51
New Extension of Suvarnabhumi Airport
52
Target : Developing North-South and East-West Corridors
0 2 5 10 กม. Km.
Key Projects: Mass Transit
route km
Red Line (North-South) 80.8
Red Line (East-West) 54
Airport Rail Link 50.3
Dark Green Line 66.5
Light Green Line 15.5
Blue Line ( Circle Line) 55
Purple Line 42.8
Orange Line 37.5
Pink Line 36
Yellow Line 30.4
Total 468.8
10 Line MRT Master Plan
Source: Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning
53
นโยบายภาครฐั
2 1
China
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
18
19
21
20
22
23
24
25
26
27
17
16 operating
constructing
planning
Thailand
Myanmar
Lao
Vietnam
มาเลเซีย
Cambodia
DOH
สพพ.
Private/ others
20. Phu Nam Ron – Thailand-Myanmar border
21. Kanchanaburi - Dawei
22. Friendship Bridge (Mae Sot)
23. Friendship Bridge 2(Mae Sot)
24. Myawaddy – Dawna Foothill
25. Dwana foot print – Kawkareik
26. Kawkareik - Thaton
27. Friendship Bridge (Mae Sai)
Thailand – Lao PDR (11 projects)
1. Friendship Bridge 4 (Chiang Khong-Huay Sai)
2. R3A in Laos
3. Huay Kon – Pak Beng
4. Hinhway No.13 North – Sang Kha Lok
5. Phu Du – Pak Lai
6. Highway No. 11 Lao PDR
7. Bridge across Huang River, Tha Li, Loei
8. Friendship Bridge 1 (Nong Khai-Thanaleng)
9. Road access Ban Woen Tai Pier
10. Friendship Bridge 3 (Nakhon Panom-Kham Mouane)
11. Friendship Bridge 2 (Mukdahan-Savannakhet)
Thailand – Cambodia (3 projects)
12. Road No. 67 Chong Sa Ngam – Siem Reap
13. Road No. 68 Chong Chom - Kralanh
14. Road No. 48 Ko Kong – Sre Ambel
Thailand – Malaysia (5 projects)
15. Bridge across Kolok River, Tak Bai
16. Bridge across Ko Lok River 2, Sungai Kolok
17. Bridge across Ko Lok River 3, Bu Ke Ta
18. Nathawi-Ban Pra Kop
19. Kuan Sa Taw-Wang Pra Chan
Thailand – Myanmar (8 projects)
Key Projects: Road Network
ASEAN Connectivity
55 Source: Department of Highway
New Exits to the Oceans 56
57
Thai Laos Friendship Bridge III – Nakorn Phanom
58
Thai Laos Friendship Bridge IV – Chiang Rai
Existing custom points at the border areas 59
60
… establish new economic zones along our border areas
Integration of Railway 61
New S-Curve and Eastern Economic Corridor
63
Building the New Growth Engine for Thailand
GDP Billions of USD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Upgraded Industries
New Industries
64
Double S-Curve
Double S-Curve policy to establish new industries for the future • Next generation Automotive • Smart Electronics • Affluent, Medical and Wellness Tourism • Agricultural and Biotechnology • Food for the Future
• Aviation and Logistics • Robotics • Medical Hub • Biofuels and Biochemical • Digital
65
FoodInnopolis
66
FoodInnopolis
67
FoodInnopolis
68
New Start Up
69
New Start Up
EEC = Eastern Seaboard 2.0 70
71
4 Core Areas to be Developed
72
Major Investment Projects in EEC
New Generation of Infrastructure + Advanced Manufacturing Center = Gateway to AEC/Asia
73
U-Tapao: Capital of Aviation & Aircraft Maintenance Industries
U-tapao Airport City
74
Skycity Development Project of Hong Kong Airport
Aerotropolis
76
77
Laem Chabang => Transshipment port for Indochina
Port of Rotterdam
79
Hinterland Network
80
New Industries in the EEC 81
60 min radius
25 min radius
• Aviation Parts • MRO • Robotics • Petrochemical • Automobile • Digital •Logistics • Distribution Center • Tourism
Industries in EEC… Focus on R&D to add more values 82
Aviation, Maintenance and Related Businesses Advanced Petrochemical and Specialty
Chemicals
Auto, Auto parts, Electronics, and Robotics
Agricultural Processing
• Specialty Chemicals • Environmental-friendly
chemicals • Biochemicals • R&D to support existing
industries / promote new S-Curve
Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO)
Aircraft parts and spare parts
Air Cargo
Smart Automobiles Electronic parts
Robotics for industrial and lifestyle use
Processed fruits Frozen food Rubber products
EECi @ Wang Chan Valley
84
Develop Greater Pattaya as a Regional Hub for MICE
85
EEC Global Business Hub and Free Economic Zone
Additional electricity system Water supply (piped and raw
water) - Integrating water pipe system
from several sources - Finding new sources
Waste management IT infrastructure Antennas and cables Data Center
Public Utilities to Support the Growth of Industry and Community
86
87
1.5 Trillion Baht of Public/Private Investments for First 5 Years
High Priority PPP Projects for 2017
89
Camb
odia
Vietnam Laem
Chabang
Maptaput
Dawei
Cambodia
China CLMV
Malaysia Singapore
E-W
N-S
89
EEC - A New Logistic Hub for Indochina, AEC and Asia
A New Logistic Hub for Indochina, AEC and Asia
12
Short term
Focus on 5 industries
Medium term
Logistic hub for ASEAN
Long term
Advances in innovation & human resources
Hospitality
and
wellness
Food and
agricultural
processing
Automotive and
other transport
equipment
Electric and
electrical
appliances
Trading
Economic priorities