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2013 ABFM CONFERENCE SCHEDULE

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3rd

7:30 AM 5:00 PM Registration...Registration Desk, Dupont Foyer, Second Floor

7:30 AM 9:00 AM Continental Breakfast...Dupont Foyer

8:30 AM 10:00 AM CONCURRENT SESSIONS A

1. State Budgeting and Fiscal SustainabilityGeorgetown II Chair / Discussant: Boris Morozov, Louisiana State University

Baselines and State Budget Growth

Carolyn Bourdeaux, Georgia State University

Laura McGuffey, Georgia State University

The Impact of Agency Mission on Agency Budget Strategy in State

Governments

Changhwan Mo, Korea Transport Institute

Jonathan Justice, University of Delaware

Separate or Unified Budgets: The Case of Georgia Il Hwan Chung, Baruch College, City University of New York

Phuong Nguyen-Hoang, University of Iowa

Fiscal Sustainability in the American States: Learning from the Past,

Understanding the Future

Marilyn Marks Rubin, John Jay College, City University of New York

ZBB Redux in Georgia Thomas P. Lauth, The University of Georgia

2. Health and Welfare SpendingSalon F Chair: Beverly Bunch, University of Illinois-Springfield

Analysis of the Changing Landscape of Revenues for Anti-Poverty Agencies

Beverly Bunch, University of Illinois, Springfield

Food Safety Policy and Resource Constraints: The Diffusion of Regulation

Jocelyn M. Johnston, American University

Rebecca Yurman, American University

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Demographic Change and Public Expenditure: The Crowding-In Effects Of

Population Aging On Social Welfare Expenditure for the Elderly in Japan:

1980-2010

Yimin Chang, University of Kentucky

3. Paying for Education: The Determinants of the Allocation of Resources to K-12 Schools and Post-Secondary Institutions.Salon G

Chair / Discussant: Eugenia F. Toma, University of Kentucky

Ethnic Homogeneity, Group Antagonism, and State Financial Support for

Higher Education John Foster, Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville

Jacob Fowles, University of Kansas

Identifying Policy Motivations of Performance Funding Adoption in Higher

Education

Douglas Carr, Oakland University

Roger Larocca, Oakland University

Charter School Capital Finance: An Examination of Charter School Bond

Issuance and Interest Costs

Peter Jones, University of Kentucky

Tax-Based Aid Expansion, College Enrollment, and College Choice

Tatyana Guzman, Cleveland State University

Haeil Jung, Indiana University

Maureen Pirog, Indiana University

4. Changes in Property Tax Law and Tax Delinquencies..Salon H Chair: Sunjoo Kwak, University of Alabama at Birmingham

Discussant: Bo Zhao, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Property Tax Limitations and Residential Mobility: The Impact of Florida

Amendment One

Rui Sun, California State University, Dominguez Hills

An Analysis of the Interaction of Public and Private Investment on Tax

Increment Financing

Bob Bland, University of North Texas & LBJ School, University of Texas at

Austin

Michael Overton, University of North Texas

Learning from Oregons Idiosyncratic Assessment Practices about Property Tax Administration in General

Marija Andelkovic Pesic, University of Nis

Fred Thompson, Willamette University

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Robert Walker, Willamette University

Property Tax Delinquencies and Local Revenue Volatility during the Great

Recession

Olha Krupa, Seattle University

5. Transit Planning and Finance IssuesMeeting Room 3017 Chair: Zhirong (Jerry) Zhao, University of Minnesota

Discussant: Michael Brogan, Rider University

Environmental Sustainability of Light Rail Transit in Urban Areas

Hazel Marie A. Sarmiento, University of North Carolina at Charlotte

Revolving Loan Systems for Transportation Projects: The Ohio State

Infrastructure Bank (SIB) Program

Jay Eungha Ryu, Ohio University

Paying for Roads and Transit: Examining Citizen Perceptions of Different

Financing Options

Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Old Dominion University

Lenahan OConnell & Kaitrin Mahar

A National Survey of Transit Agencies: Fiscal Climate Effects

Suzanne Leland, University of North Carolina at Charlotte

Olga Smirnova, East Carolina University

10:00 AM 10:15 AM REFRESHMENT BREAK.Dupont Foyer

10:15 AM 11:45 AM CONCURRENT SESSIONS B

1. Too Big to Fail: The Fiscal Crises Facing Six U.S. Cities, and What State and Local Leaders Need to Know to Address Them.Georgetown II

Chair: Paul Posner, George Mason University

All In or Hands Off: the State Role in Local Fiscal Crises

Frank Shafroth, George Mason University

Maryland: Assumption of Local Responsibilities

John W. Rohrer, Maryland Department of Legislative Services

Rhode Island: Strong State Intervention in Distressed Communities

John Simmons, Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council

Presentation title to be determined

David Y. Miller, University of Pittsburgh

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Illinois: No State Intervention

Sarah Wetmore, Illinois Civic Federation

2. International Budgetary Issues..Salon F Chair: Linda Janet Porras-Mendoza

Controlling the EMU's Budgetary Free Riders: Repairing the European

Commission's Fiscal Monitoring Capacity

James Savage, University of Virginia

Sovereign Wealth Funds in OECD Countries

John B Gilmour, College of William & Mary

The Effects of Financial Crisis under Keynesian Theory in OECD Countries

Ju-Ying Yang, University of Illinois at Chicago

City's Budget, A look at the City Council of Nairobi

Obuya Bagaka, Kenya Institute of Administration

Clarence Otieno, Kenyan Government

3. Cutback Management and the RecessionSalon G Chair: Thomas P. Lauth, The University of Georgia

Discussant: Skip Krueger, University of North Texas

An Examination of the Economic Downturn: Changes in State Expenditures

and Lessons Learned

Brian Sigritz, National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO)

Michael Streepey, National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO)

The Public Financing of Americas Largest Cities: An Autopsy of City Financial Records in the Wake of the Great Recession

Craig L. Johnson, Indiana University

Wenli Yan, Virginia Commonwealth University

Justin Ross, Indiana University

Cutback Management and Incrementalism in Large American Cities, 1964 to

2006

Jae Young Lim, University of Georgia at Athens

Federal Budgeting for Short-Term Fiscal Uncertainty

Marvin Phaup, George Washington University

Imtiaz Bhatti, George Washington University

State and Local Earmarks: Counterparts of Congressional Earmarks?

Yonghong Wu, University of Illinois at Chicago

Daniel W. Williams, Baruch College-City University of New York

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4. The Recession and Property TaxesSalon H Chair: Craig Maher, Northern Illinois University

Discussant: Rui Sun, California State University, Dominguez Hills

Structural / Institutional Determinants of Variations in Household Property

Tax Burdens and Effective Tax Rates Within and Across Local Governments:

The Effect of the Great Recession and Beyond

John L. Mikesell, Indiana University

Daniel R. Mullins, American University

What Happens to Assessment Limits when Property Values Decline?

Catherine F. Collins, George Washington Institute of Public Policy

House Prices and Property Tax Revenues: Evidence from Small-Area Estimates

Christopher B. Goodman, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey

5. Public and Private Sector Pensions..Meeting Room 3017 Chair: Carol Ebdon, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Market Volatility and Risk-Taking Behavior: A Comparative Study of Public

and Private Sector Defined Benefit Pension Plans

Odd Stalebrink, Penn State University

Vicky Kiosse, University of Exeter

The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation: Public Funds for Private

Pensions

Karen Kunz, West Virginia University

Does Public Pension Underfunding Lead to Riskier Asset Allocation?

Daniel L. Smith, New York University

Determinants of Public Pension Fund Investment Performance

Jun Peng, University of Arizona

Qiushi Wang, Rutgers University- Newark

The Role of Economic, Fiscal, and Financial Shocks in the Evolution of Public

Sector Pension Funding

Robert K. Triest, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Bo Zhao, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

12:00 PM 1:15 PM POSTER SESSION..Dupont Foyer Session Judges: Wie Yusuf, Old Dominion University; Boris Morozov, Louisiana

State University; and Whitney Afonso, University of North Carolina

POSTER LISTINGS

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Tax-Expenditure Limitations and Infrastructure Finance in U.S. Local

Government

Agustin P. Leon-Moreta, Florida State University

Duct Taped Spreadsheets: How Practitioners Really Do Budget & Financial

Analysis

Kenneth Hunter, City of Rocky Mount, North Carolina

The Differences in State Funding Assistance to School Districts in States that

Imposed Binding School District Tax and Expenditure Limitations (TELs) Michael S. Hayes, American University

Public Pension Plans Trends and Features 2000-2009

Rayna L. Stoycheva, University of Miami

State EITCs and Impacts on Household Savings Levels Carletta F. Taylor Sims, Indiana University

The Impact of a Split-Rate Property Tax on the Housing Market and Tax

Revenue Stability, A Study of the Pennsylvania Experience

Cheol Liu, Indiana University

What is the Impact of State Funding and Accountability Policies on the

Location of Charter Schools? Christian Buerger, Maxwell School of Syracuse University

Effects of Intergovernmental Aid and Local Revenue Diversification on

Pension Liability Funding

Evgenia Gorina, Arizona State University / University of Texas at Dallas

Does Fiscal Information Disclosure Matter? Costs of Competitive Bond Sales

Junghack Kim, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Revenue Strategies of US States under Conditions of Economic and Political

Stress: Revenue Diversification 1980 to 2011 Seeun Ryu, Arizona State University

Devolution of Budgeting Authority in Thailand

Sirisak Laochankham, University of Missouri

The Web of Performance Budgeting (PB) Evaluation: Effectiveness, Discretion,

Accountability, and Transparency Yousueng Han, Indiana University- Bloomington

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Rise of the Municipal Securities in China: A Comparison of Municipal Bond

Market in the United States and the People's Republic of China Zihe Guo, University of Kentucky

1:30 PM 3:00 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS C

1. The Fiscal Policy Space of Cities...Georgetown II Chair: Michael A. Pagano, University of Illinois at Chicago

The Fiscal Policy Space: A Comprehensive Framework for City Fiscal

Decision-making

Michael A. Pagano, University of Illinois at Chicago

Christopher Hoene, California Budget Project

Yonghong Wu, University of Illinois at Chicago

Locally Imposed Limits: The Rise of the New TEL

Samuel Bassett, University of Illinois at Chicago

Christopher Hoene, California Budget Project

Effects of State-Imposed Constraints on Municipal Revenue: The Mediating

Role of Alternative Revenue Sources

Shu Wang, University of Illinois at Chicago

Michael A. Pagano, University of Illinois at Chicago

Testing the Links Between the Consideration and Adoption of Fiscal Policy

Actions to the State Attribute and to the Local Attribute in Fiscal Policy Space of Cities Yu Shi, University of Illinois at Chicago

Nisa Yazici Aydemir, University of Illinois at Chicago

2. GASB, Cost Accounting and Audits.Salon F Chair: Michael S. Hayes, American University

Local Managers Perceptions of Recent Changes to Governmental Financial

Statements

Craig S. Maher, Northern Illinois University

Shannon Sohl, Northern Illinois University

A Tale of Two Bases: The Different Stories Told By Government-Wide and

Governmental Fund Financial Statements

Dean Michael Mead, Governmental Accounting Standards Board & Rutgers, The

State University of New Jersey

Improved Financial Reporting for Other Postemployment Benefits by State and

Local Governments

Kevin M. Bronner, University at Albany, The State University of New York

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A Decade of Single Audits: Differential Results from the Public Sector

Tammy R. Waymire, Northern Illinois University

Thomas Z. Webb, Mississippi State University

Timothy D. West, Northern Illinois University

How Pervasive are the Effects of Transaction Costs? Analyzing Cost Drivers in

Cost Accounting

Zachary Mohr, University of North Carolina-Charlotte

3. Adapt & Advance: Understanding the next steps in your public finance practitioner or academic career (Roundtable)Salon G

Chair: Kenneth Hunter, City of Rocky Mount, North Carolina

Panel Participants:

Frances Hunter, Nashville Metropolitan Transit Authority (Tennessee)

Heather Pulitzer, Office of Management and Budget, City of New York

Hyong Yi, Director, Office of Management and Budget Mecklenburg County,

North Carolina

Melissa Merrell, Congressional Budget Office, George Washington University,

Past President, AABPA

Sandra Beattie, U.S. Government Accountability Office

4. Empirical Evidence on Tax Policy ReformsSalon H Chair: Justin M. Ross, Indiana University

Discussant: Whitney Afonso, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Tax Exemptions for Charitable Organizations: How Are They Capitalized into

Residential Property Values?

Deborah A. Carroll, University of Georgia

Capital Input Taxes and Labor Employment: Empirical Evidence from the

Retail Sales Taxation of Manufacturing Machinery and Equipment

Justin M. Ross, Indiana University

John L. Mikesell, Indiana University

Conflicting Theories of Democratic Reform: Evidence from State E-Commerce

Tax Reform

Sarah Larson, Indiana University

Behavioral Frameworks of Property Tax Determination

Spencer T. Brien, Arizona State University

5. Dimensions of Public Pension Plan Management and PolicyMeeting Room 3017 Chair / Discussant: Justin Marlowe, University of Washington

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How Well Does the Risk-Free Rate Predict the Future Rate of Return on

Investments? Implications for Public Defined-Benefit Pension Plans

Kenneth A. Kriz, Wichita State University

Gang Chen, University at Albany-State University of New York

From Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution Plans for Public Employees:

Results and Lessons from Michigan

Michael Thom, University of Southern California

The Public Pension Problem: A Case Study

Carol Ebdon, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Paul Landow, University of Nebraska at Omaha

A Simulation of Defined-Benefit Pension Plans: What Features are the Most

Important?

Gang Chen, University at Albany-State University of New York

David Matkin, University at Albany-State University of New York

The Credit Threat of Public Pension Funding on State Credit Ratings

Yan Xiao, University of Nebraska at Omaha

3:00 PM 3:15 PM REFRESHMENT BREAK.Dupont Foyer

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3:15 PM 4:45 PM PLENARYWest End Ballroom AB

The Impact of the Sequestration on State Budgets

Karen Kunz, West Virginia University

Scott Pattison, NASBO

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5:00 PM 7:00 PM RECEPTION..Dupont Ballroom

7:00 PM -- 8:00 PM Public Financial Publications, Inc., Board Meeting.Hollow Square

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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4th

7:00 AM 8:30 AM ABFM Executive Committee Meeting.Conference Room

7:00 AM 8:30 AM Using Budget Cases in Graduate Courses..TBD

7:30 AM 4:30 PM RegistrationRegistration Desk, Dupont Foyer, Second Floor

7:30 AM 9:00 AM Continental Breakfast...Dupont Foyer

8:30 AM 10:00 AM CONCURRENT SESSIONS D

1. Innovations in Nonprofit Budgeting.Georgetown II Chair: Helisse Levine, Long Island University

Discussant: Beverly Bunch, University of Illinois-Springfield

Borrowing for Good: The Use of Tax-Exempt Debt by Public Charities

Thad Calabrese, New York University

Todd Ely, University of Colorado, Denver

Through the Analysts Looking Glass: Nonprofit Influence on Budget Outcomes

Sarah Beth Gehl, Georgia State University

State of Nonprofit Finance Research: Problems or Opportunities?

Alicia Schatteman, Northern Illinois University

Tammy Waymire, Northern Illinois University

Crowding Out or Crowding In? -- An Analysis of Private Contributions and Government Grants in Housing Nonprofits

Janey Wang, San Francisco State University

Jennifer Shea, San Francisco State University

2. Innovations to Support Local GovernmentsSalon F Chair: Yilin Hou, Syracuse University

Helpful Local Surtaxes? Florida and Disadvantaged Families

Bruce McDonald, III, Indiana University South Bend

D. Ryan Miller, Georgia Southern University

Robert J. Eger, III, Naval Postgraduate School

New Markets Tax Credit (NMTC) in Low-Income Communities: A

Comparative Analysis of Economic Development Outcomes in Georgia and

Illinois

Deborah A. Carroll, University of Georgia

Jekyung Lee, University of Georgia

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Determinants of Local Infrastructure Investment and its Impacts: Examining

the Development of Georgia

Ping Zhang, University of Georgia

Yilin Hou, Syracuse University

Capitalization of Education Quality in Property Value: An Empirical Study of

Beijing

Qiang Ren, Central University of Finance and Economics

Yilin Hou, Syracuse University

3. State Budget Priorities Following the Recession.Salon G Chair / Discussant: Odd Stalebrink, Penn State University

US Sub-national Governmental Response to the Financial Crisis: Implications

for the Equitable Distribution of the Costs and Benefits of Public Services Blue Wooldridge, Virginia Commonwealth University

Heidi Jane Smith, International Consultant

After the Fall: Governors and State Budget Priorities following the Great

Recession

Katherine Willoughby, Georgia State University

Price Tags or Guesstimates? Fiscal Notes in Illinois

Nancy Hudspeth, University of Illinois, Chicago

Its always something Actions and Reactions to Budget Balancing in Maryland

Warren Deschenaux, Maryland General Assembly

David B. Juppe, Maryland General Assembly

4. State Income Taxes and Tax Credits....Salon H Chair: Rui Sun, California State University, Dominguez Hills

Discussant: P. Cary Christian, Georgia Southern University

The Effect of Connecticuts Income Tax Adoption on Residency Decisions Whitney Afonso, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Cyclical Asymmetry of State Tax Rate Changes

Sunjoo Kwak, University of Alabama at Birmingham

Louisiana Tax Reform Proposal of 2013: Proposed Income Tax Repeal and

Sales Tax Increase Analysis

Boris Morozov, Louisiana State University

Lights, Camera, Action: The Adoption of State Film Tax Credits

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David L. Sjoquist, Georgia State University

Emefa Sewordor, Georgia State University

5. The Financial Management of Collaboration: Financial Management across Boundaries..Meeting Room 3017

Chair / Discussant: Benedict S. Jimenez, Northeastern University

Collaborative Financial Management Practices within the Department of

Defense Col. Robert Nye, United States Army War College

How Municipal Collaboration Reshapes the Budgeting Process: Further

Evidence from Illinois Public Management Networks

Kurt Thurmaier, Northern Illinois University

David Mitchell, Northern Illinois University

Interlocal Finance: Identifying the Transaction Costs of Cooperation Across

Local Governments in Texas

Simon Andrew, University of North Texas

Jesseca E. Short, University of North Texas

Establishing Theory for the Financial Management of Governance and

Collaboration

Zachary Mohr, University of North Carolina-Charlotte

10:00 AM 10:15 AM REFRESHMENT BREAK.Dupont Foyer

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10:15 AM 11:45 AM PLENARYWest End Ballroom AB

ACCA

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12:00 PM 1:15 PM AWARDS LUNCHEON.West End Ballroom AB

Sponsored by ACCA

PFP Jesse Burkhead Award: Best article published in Public Budgeting & Finance in 2012

Michael Curro Student Paper Award: Best written paper in a class or under faculty

supervision

S. Kenneth Howard Award: Lifetime achievements by a practitioner in the field of budgeting

and financial management

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Aaron Wildavsky Award: Lifetime achievements in the field of budgeting and financial

management

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1:30 PM 3:00 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS E

1. Transportation, Infrastructure Finance, and Public Utility.Georgetown II Chair: Wie Yusuf, Old Dominion University

Discussant: Charlotte Kirschner, The Ohio State University

Fiscal Brownout: Potential Impacts of Enterprise Fund Regulation on Eastern

North Carolinas Electricities Kenneth Hunter, City of Rocky Mount, North Carolina

The Politics of Energy Budgeting: Forecasting Severance Taxes amidst

Economic Growth, Environmental Sustainability and Market Volatility in the

US States

Michael Brogan, Rider University

Charles Tien, City University of New York-Hunter College

Transportation Revenues and Expenditures in Kentucky: Measuring Historical

Sufficiency and Defining Future Scenarios

Bryan Gibson, Kentucky Transportation Center, University of Kentucky

Dwight Denison, University of Kentucky

Candice Wallace

Doug Kreis, Kentucky Transportation Center, University of Kentucky

Banking on Infrastructure: Examining the Fiscal Effects of State

Infrastructure Bank (SIB) Loans on Leveraging Local Transportation

Investment

Can Chen, University of Nebraska at Omaha

From Value Increase to Value Capture: The Case of Maple Grove, Minnesota

Zhirong (Jerry) Zhao, University of Minnesota

2. Forecasting Issues and Trends.Salon F Chair: Jane Beckett-Camarata, Penn State University-Harrisburg

Revenue Forecasting Accuracy

Daniel Williams, Baruch College

Joseph Onochie, Baruch College

An Examination of Revenue Forecasting in the 50 States

Donald Boyd, Rockefeller Institute of Government

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Forecasting Accuracy in Virginia

James Conant, George Mason University

Using IMPLAN to forecast the fiscal impact of changes

John Wong, University of North Texas

3. Local Fiscal Policy and Budget StabilizationSalon G Chair / Discussant: Agustin P. Leon-Moreta, Florida State University

Tax Instruments and Local Government Budget Stability

Yilin Hou, Syracuse University

Jason Seligman, The Ohio State University

Budget Stabilization in Municipalities: Evidence from Chicago Suburbs 1997 2011

Rebecca Hendrick, University of Illinois at Chicago

Fiscal Slack and Local Expenditure Stabilization West Coast Style Justin Marlowe, University of Washington

Great Recession and Responses to the Crisis in North Carolina Counties

Wen Wang, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis

4. Winners and Losers in Sales Tax CollectionsSalon H Chair: Whitney Afonso, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Sales Tax Distribution in Urban and Rural Counties in North Carolina: Who

Wins and Who Loses?

Whitney Afonso, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

A Typology of Sales Tax Evaders: Targeting Enforcement to Diverse Intentions

P. Cary Christian, Georgia Southern University

The Future of Online Sales Taxes

Andrew Wesemann, University of Missouri

Charles E. Menifield, University of Missouri

Political Determinants of State Sales Tax Base Erosion

Geoffrey Propheter, The George Washington University

Confusion About General Consumption Taxation in American Tax Policy:

Avoiding a National Value-Added Tax While Expanding Reliance on State

Retail Sales Taxes

John L. Mikesell, Indiana University

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5. Rainy Day and Fund BalancesMeeting Room 3017 Chair / Discussant: Thad Calabrese, New York University

Do States Use Rainy Day Funds When it Pours? Disaster-Stabilization Funds

in the Gulf Coast States

Charlotte Kirschner, The Ohio State University

Akheil Singla, The Ohio State University

Unclaimed Property: An Untapped Revenue Source for States?

Darrin Wilson Florida Atlantic University

Gao Liu, Florida Atlantic University

The Interactive Effect of Fund Balance and Revenue Diversity on Local

Government Fiscal Sustainability

David Wachira, The World Bank

A Spatial Analysis of Florida Local Governments Unreserved Fund Balance Hai (David) Guo, Florida International University

Wen Wang, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis

3:00 PM 3:15 PM REFRESHMENT BREAK.Dupont Foyer

3:15 PM 4:45 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS F

1. Financing Primary and Secondary EducationGeorgetown II Chair / Discussant: Elizabeth S. Overman, University of Central Oklahoma

Financial Implications of School Choice for Public School Systems

James A. Richardson, Louisiana State University

Roy L. Heidelberg, Louisiana State University

Fiscal Decentralization, Administrative Decentralization, and Performance

Gaps between Low-Income and Non-Low Income Students

Abhisekh Ghosh Moulick, Texas A&M University

Politics or Professionalism? Budgeting for Bilingual Education

Carla M. Flink, Texas A&M University

Angel Luis Molina, Jr., Texas A&M University

Do the Dollars Add Up? The Missing Link between Capital Infrastructure

Finance and School District Performance

Edward D. Vargas, University of New Mexico

Tima Moldogaziev, University of South Carolina

Institutional Arrangements for Public Library Funding and Spending

JiHyung Park, University of Nebraska at Omaha

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Carol Ebdon, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Aimee Franklin, University of Oklahoma

2. Forecasting Issues and Trends.Salon F Chair: Jane Beckett-Camarata, Penn State University-Harrisburg

A Dirty Approach to Efficient Budget Forecasting Bruce McDonald, III, Indiana University South Bend

State Revenue Forecasting Practices in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

Jane Beckett-Camarata, Penn State University-Harrisburg

The Value of Consensus Forecasting for Producing a Binding Revenue

Baseline: An Indiana Case Study

John L. Mikewell, Indiana University

Justin Ross, Indiana University

3. Implications for TELS.Salon G Chair / Discussant: Rayna L. Stoycheva, University of Miami

Tax-Expenditure Limitations and Local Government Reorganization in the

United States

Agustin P. Leon-Moreta, Florida State University

Budgetary Constraints and Employee Turnover: The Case of Binding School

District Tax and Expenditure Limitations (TELS)

Michael S. Hayes, American University

Spatial Implications of Tax and Expenditure Limitations

Marvin Ward Jr., DC Office of Revenue Analysis

4. Improving Child and Welfare SpendingSalon H Chair: Sarah Beth Gehl, Georgia State University

Discussant: Katherine Willoughby, Georgia State University

Identifying Child Care Subsidy Policy Precedents and Simulating Costs across

States

Beth Neary, University of Connecticut

Why did State Leaders Change their Minds on the Health Care Law?

Dan Wang, Arizona State University

Health Care Spending and Health Outcomes

Michelle Pfister, University of Missouri

Charles E. Menifield, University of Missouri

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Race to the Bottom? Relative Benefits Impact on Welfare Expenditure Nakhyeok Choi, Florida International University

5. Bankruptcy and Decentralization: Are They Really Connected?...................................................................................Meeting Room 3017

Chair / Discussant: Alexandru V. Roman, California State University San

Bernardino

Emergency Financial Managers: Delegated Powers, Fiscal Efficacy and Rising

Conflicts

Michael Thom, University of Southern California

Twyla Blackmond Larnell, Loyola University

Bankruptcy Triggers and their Relation to Fiscal Solvency: An Examination of

Local Governments in Illinois

Rebecca M. Hendrick, University of Illinois at Chicago

Andrew W. Crosby, University of Illinois at Chicago

Does Taking Longer to Budget Lead to Better Fiscal Conditions?

Elaine Yi Lu, City University of New York-John Jay College

Blind, Broke, and Bedlam? Bankruptcy in Stockton, Vallejo, and San

Bernardino

Jim Comeaux, The Ohio State University

Akheil Singla, The Ohio State University

Charlotte Kirschner, The Ohio State University

How Does Fiscal Decentralization Affect the Financial Condition of State and

Municipal Governments?

Samuel B. Stone, California State University, Fullerton

4:45 PM 5:30 PM ABFM Annual Members' Meeting..Salon F

5:30 PM 7:30 PM RECEPTIONDupont Ballroom

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SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5th

7:30 AM 12:00 PM Registration.Registration Desk, Dupont Foyer, Second Floor

7:30 AM 9:00 AM Continental Breakfast...Dupont Foyer

8:30 AM 10:00 AM CONCURRENT SESSIONS G

1. Efficiency and Effectiveness in Service DeliveryGeorgetown II Chair / Discussant: Kenneth Hunter, City of Rocky Mount, North Carolina

Assessing Best Value Services and Alternative Service Delivery Options Trends

Christine Smith, Baker Tilly

Does Service Consolidation Affect Municipal Spending: The Case of Wisconsin

Municipalities

Craig S. Maher, Northern Illinois University

Katherine Piker, Northern Illinois University

Factors Affecting Performance Budgeting: A Discriminant Analysis of Cost

Effectiveness in Budgeting for Municipal Service Delivery

Kenneth A. Klase, University of North Carolina at Greensboro

Consolidation of Local Government Functions: Cost Savings and Policy

Implications for the Local Public Service Provision

Olha Krupa, Seattle University

2. The Assignment of Public Service Responsibilities: Examination of the Causes and Effects of Fiscal Decentralization, Outsourcing, and Local Debt

Management............................................................................................................Salon F

Chair: Thad Calabrese, New York University

Discussant: Jacob Fowles, University of Kansas

Fiscal Centralization and State and Local Government Payrolls: Analysis with

State and County Panel Data from 1977 to 2007

John Foster, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville

Eugenia F. Toma, University of Kentucky

Matthew Howell, Eastern Kentucky University

Unobserved Heterogeneity and Bias in Tests of the Leviathan Hypothesis

Carlos Lopes, Midway College

Local Government Risk Assessment: The Effect of Government Type on Credit

Rating Decisions

Robert A. Greer, University of Georgia

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Produce or Buy? An Analysis of Government Outsourcing Decisions from the

Transaction Cost and Revenue Volatility Perspectives

Zhiwei Zhang, University of Kentucky

3. Financial Risks and Investment PoolsSalon G Chair: Kenneth A. Kriz, Wichita State University

Discussant: Rebecca M. Hendrick, University of Illinois at Chicago

Analyzing Changes in Asset Concentrations of LGIPs

Jeongwoo Kim, Sam Houston State University

Managing Financial Risk in the Public Sector: Financial Wizard/Trail

Blazer/Politician the Role of the Public Sector Risk Manager Melissa Baur, Grant Thornton

Molly Curl, Grant Thornton

Investing Public Funds: Determinants of the Use of Local Government

Investment Pools by Municipalities in Texas

Robert Bland, University of North Texas and Visiting Professor, University of

Texas at Austin

Julius Nukpezah, University of North Texas

Debts Designed for Governmental Contractual Obligations: Borrowing Costs

of Certificate of Obligation in Texas

Wei-Liang Lung, University of North Texas

Simon Andrew, University of North Texas

4. Tax Fairness, Unemployment Trust Funds and Social Security Reform.Salon H Chair: Andrew Wesemann, University of Missouri

Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Solvency: An Analysis of Balances and

State Management Practices

Bryan Gibson, University of Kentucky

Are You Paying Your Fair Share?

James M. Hurley, District of Columbia Office of Finance and Resource

Management

Behavioral Changes of Local Governments Under Fiscal Constraints: Colorado

Case

Jung-Joo Lee, Seoul Womens University

Fiscally & Morally Responsible Social Security (Oasi Payroll Tax) Reform

Brett Bergen, U.S. Navy

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5. The Future of Higher Education..Meeting Room 3017 Chair: James A. Richardson, Louisiana State University

Discussant: Michael S. Hayes, American University

Costs Up/Revenues Down: Trends in Higher Education Finance

Elizabeth S. Overman, University of Central Oklahoma

University Financial Management: Can Public Universities Control Costs?

Donijo Robbins, Grand Valley State University

Mark Hoffman, Grand Valley State University

Education of Budget Officers Edward Anthony Lehan, Independent Consultant

Kinky Aid and Student Loans: Does Tax-Based Aid Affect Students' Debt?

Tatyana Guzman, Cleveland State University

10:00 AM 10:15 AM REFRESHMENT BREAKDupont Foyer

10:15 AM 11:45 AM CONCURRENT SESSIONS H

1. Roundtable: How Results Teams Allocate Resources in Baltimores Outcome Budgeting SystemGeorgetown II

Chairs: Andrew Kleine, City of Baltimore & Roy Meyers, University of

Maryland-Baltimore County

Panel Participants: Dan Sparaco, Assistant Deputy Chief of Operations, Mayors Office Michael Pokorny, Department of Housing and Community Development

Beth Strommen, Sustainability Coordinator, Department of Planning

2. Using Transparency to Improve Budgetary CorruptionSalon F Chair / Discussant: Michael Thom, University of Southern California

The Impact of Public Officials Corruption on the Size and Allocation of U.S. State Spending

Cheol Liu, Indiana University

John L. Mikesell, Indiana University

Fiscal Federalism Toward Corruption or Transparency-Empirical Evidence

from the United States

Jongmin Shon, University of Georgia

Yoon Kyoung Cho, University of Georgia

Government, Money, and Fraud

Sawsan A. Abutabanjeh, Old Dominion University

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Politics, Economics, and Cross-Continental Fiscal Transparency: What about

it?

Theodore Arapis, Villanova University

Vincent Reitano, Villanova University

3. Capital Expenditures During Budgetary ShortfallsSalon G Chair: Charlotte Kirschner, The Ohio State University

Unorthodox Capital Project Funding Cash Angie Flick, Arizona State University, Management and Budget Supervisor with

Maricopa County

Estimating Net Resources in Capital Improvement Planning

Gerald J. Miller, Arizona State University

The Exploration of Adoption Administrative Innovations in Capital Budgeting

at the State Level

Natalia Ermasova, Governors State University

Budgets the Comprehensive Management of the Industrial Cities

Nedal Salman Al Hammad, Finance and Budgeting Department, Royal

Commission at Yanbu, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Dollars for Lives: The Effect of Capital Expenditures on Traffic Fatalities

Ryan Yeung, State University of New York-Brockport

Phuong Nguyen-Hoang, University of Iowa

4. State Budget Issues.Salon H Chair / Discussant: Carolyn Bourdeaux, Georgia State University

Is State Rebudgeting a Function of Balancing Revenue or Elasticity?

Meagan M. Jordan, Old Dominion University

Wenli Yan, Virginia Commonwealth University

Making a Judgment of Accountability: Limitations to Analyzing Budgets &

Structural Balance Utilizing State CAFRs Melinda James Lopez, Auburn University

State Debt Resource Constraints

Robert A. Greer, University of Georgia

Dwight Denison, University of Kentucky

Using Financial Ratios to Assess State Financial Condition: A Reliable

Measure?

Sarah Arnett, Government Accountability Office

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Speaking Truth to Power? Policy Advice in the Legislature

John Bartle, University of Nebraska-Omaha

5. The Role of Pay for Success in Public FinanceMeeting Room 3017 Chair: John Grossman, Third Sector Capital Partners

Pay For Success and Social Innovation Financing: Role for Department of

Budget and Financial Management

John Grossman, Third Sector Capital Partners

Presentation title to be determined

Edward Dolan, Commissioner of the Department of Youth Services

Presentation title to be determined

Lili Elkins/Tom Mckenna, Roca Inc.

1:30 PM 3:00 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS I

1. Federalism and DevolutionGeorgetown II Chair: Marvin Phaup, George Washington University

Assessment of the Intergovernmental Grants in Latin American Sub-National

Governments

Linda Janet Porras-Mendoza, Georgia State University

Persuading Legislators to Give Up their Power of the Purse: a Franco-

American Perspective on Contemporary Budgeting

Alix Meyer, Sciences Po Lyon

An Empirical Analysis of the Equalization Effects of Fiscal Transfers on

County-Level Fiscal Disparities in Henan Province

Li Hui, National University of Singapore

Desegregation, Fiscal Federalism, and the Effects on Intergenerational

Income: A Comparative Consideration of Post-Apartheid South Africa and the

Segregated American South

Sherman A. Cooper, Georgia State University

Overcoming Principal-Agent Goal Disparities between Congress and the

Executive Using Inter-Governmental Transfers

Stuart Kasdin, George Washington University

Federica Iorio, George Washington University

2. The Strategic Use of Public BondsSalon F

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Chair: John Bartle, University of Nebraska-Omaha

Does Public Infrastructure Health Affect State Bond Ratings? Evidence from a

Panel Data Analysis

Can Chen, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Kenneth Kriz, University of Nebraska at Omaha

The Design and Estimation of a Bi-National Bond to Finance Strategic

Infrastructure along the U.S.-Mexico Border

Harikumar Sankaran, New Mexico State University

Violeta Daz, New Mexico State University

Salvador Espinosa, San Diego State University

Assessing Municipal Bond Default Probabilities

Matthew J. Holian, San Jose State University

Marc Joffe, Public Sector Credit Solutions

Bond Repayment Capacity in Developing Countries

Salvador Espinosa, San Diego State University

Christine Martell, University of Colorado Denver

3. Issues in Local Government..Salon G Chair: John Foster Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville

Multi-Year Fiscal Planning and Projections in Local Governments Status and Impact

Holly Sun, George Washington University

Joseph Cordes, George Washington University

Unraveling Fiscal Crisis: What Worked and What Didnt for Local Governments?

Milena I. Neshkova, Florida International University

Hai (David) Guo, Florida International University

The Budget Process in Selected Town Governments: A Survey and Overview

with Implications for the Field

Robert W. Smith, Kennesaw State University

Institutions and Epistemic Communities: The Impact of City Managers on

Fiscal Outcomes

Skip Krueger, University of North Texas

Robert W. Walker, Willamette University

Abraham Benavides, University of North Texas

Kraiwuth Jaikampan, University of North Texas

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Assessing Other Postemployment Benefit Underfunding for Local Governments

in Michigan

Traci Taylor, Michigan State University

Eric Scorsone, Michigan State University

David Schweikhardt, Michigan State University

4. Current Trends, Reform and Conundrums in Government FinanceSalon H Chair: Daniel Williams, Baruch College

Show Me the Money: Local Governments, Nonprofits and Property Tax

Revenues

Helisse Levine, Long Island University

Local Government Bankruptcy: A Reevaluation

Alexandru V. Roman, California State University, San Bernardino

Capital Appreciation Bonds: Californias Latest School Financing Conundrum David Baker, California State University, San Bernardino

Marc K. Fudge, California State University, San Bernardino

The 2008 Fiscal Crisis and Administrative Reform in U. S. State Governments

Hua Xu, Auburn University at Montgomery

Jonathan Justice, University of Delaware

5. Performance Budgeting in Local Government: Why Implement?.........................................................................................Meeting Room 3017

Chair / Discussant: Benjamin Clark, Cleveland State University

Assessing Spending Disparity and Its Causes in Local Public Road:

Performance Measurement for Public Infrastructure

Arwiphawee Srithongrung, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Smart Cuts? Strategic planning, performance management and fiscal

retrenchment in U.S. cities

Benedict S. Jimenez, Northeastern University

Is the Performance Budget Link Illusive? ---A Case Study of Selected Governments

Elaine Yi Lu, City University of New York-John Jay College

Performance-Based Budgeting: What Motivates Municipalities to Adopt It?

JiHyung Park, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Changsoo Song, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Jooho Lee, University of Nebraska at Omaha

3:00 PM 3:15 PM REFRESHMENT BREAK.Dupont Foyer

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3:15 PM 4:45 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS J

1. The Politics and Economics of Fiscal Rebalancing ("Consolidation")........................................................................................Georgetown II

Chair: Marvin Phaup, Trachtenberg School, George Washington University

Discussants: James Savage, University of Virginia

Marco Cangiano, Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund

The Politics of Austerity Paul Posner, George Mason University

The Economics of Rebalancing Douglas Hamilton, Peter G. Peterson Foundation

2. Municipal Bankruptcies: Cases, Trends, and Bankruptcy Risk Pricing...Salon F Chair / Discussant: Tima T. Moldogaziev, University of South Carolina

Federal Bankruptcy Petition of Stockton, California

Ashley K. Ames, Indiana University & State of California Legislative Analysts Office

Why Fears about Municipal Credit Are Overblown

Daniel Bergstresser, Brandeis International Business School

Randolph B. Cohen, MIT Sloan School of Management

The Demise of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Jane BeckettCamarata, Penn State UniversityHarrisburg

Not All Bankruptcies Are Created Equal: Empirical Assessment of the Role of

"Bankruptcy Risk" in Credit Ratings and Yields

Tima T. Moldogaziev, University of South Carolina

Sharon N. Kioko, Syracuse University

W. Bartley Hildreth, Georgia State University

3. Defense Spending During the Recession..Salon G Chair: Michael Brogan, Rider University

An Effect of Continuing Resolutions: Evidence of Expense Shifting in U.S.

Army Contract and Supply Spending

Alexander Jacobs, University of Kentucky

Budgetary Impact of Military Base Closing (or Removal from Base Closing

Lists) on Neighboring Municipalities --Effects during the Great Recession and

its Aftermath

Andrew Glassberg, University of Missouri-St. Louis

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Emergent Complex Networks: The Financial Web of Defense Department

Weapons Acquisition Programs

M. Maureen Brown, University of North Carolina-Charlotte

Robert S. Kravchuk, Indiana University

4. Budgeting Theory...Salon H Chair / Discussant: Arwiphawee Srithongrung, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Federal R&D Expenditures: Testing the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory

Benjamin Clark, Cleveland State University

Uncovering the Impact of Strategic Choice in Public Finance: A MetaAnalytic Approach

Jacob Fowles, University of Kansas

Alfred Ho, University of Kansas

Tao Lang, University of Kansas

Qingwang Guo, Remin University of China

Predicting Punctuations: Exploring the Causes of Budgetary Change in Local

Governments

John Kovari, University of Wisconsin-La Crosse

Mapping the Way Forward in Budgeting Theory

Luke Fowler, Mississippi State University

Robert W. Smith, Kennesaw State University

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Join us next year in Grand Rapids, MI! October 2-4, 2014, Amway Grand Plaza

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