PWC 28. JANUAR 2020 Kim Bruun, Investeringschef, Danske Bank Private Banking, Hillerød

‘En verden i forandring’

Investeringstrends i 2020

2

DANSKE BANK HOUSE VIEW

Udvalgte markeders seneste udvikling

Kilde: MacrobondHistoriske afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidige afkast, der også kan blive negative.

Opdateret 28-01-2020

33

1942 19,2%

1944 19,0%

1972 18,8%

1979 18,5% 2019 28,9%

1993 10,0% 1986 18,5% 1938 29,3%

1992 7,5% 1949 18,3% 2003 28,4%

2018 - 7,0% 1956 7,4% 1952 18,2% 1998 28,3%

1939 -1,1% 1978 6,5% 1988 16,5% 1961 26,6% 1995 37,2%

1934 -1,2% 1984 6,1% 1964 16,4% 2009 25,9% 1975 37,0%

1953 -1,2% 1987 5,8% 2012 15,9% 1943 25,1% 1945 35,8%

1990 -3,1% 1948 5,7% 2006 15,6% 1976 23,8% 1997 33,1%

1981 -4,7% 2007 5,5% 2010 14,8% 1967 23,8% 1955 32,6%

1977 -7,0% 1947 5,2% 1971 14,2% 1951 23,7% 2013 32,1%

1966 -10,0% 1969 -8,2% 2005 4,8% 2014 13,5% 1996 22,7% 1936 31,9%

1957 -10,5% 1929 -8,3% 1970 3,6% 1965 12,4% 1963 22,6% 1980 31,7%

1940 -10,7% 1946 -8,4% 2011 2,1% 2016 12,3% 1983 22,3% 1989 31,5% 1933 50,0%

2002 -22,0% 2001 -11,8% 1932 -8,6% 2015 1,4% 1959 12,1% 2017 21,6% 1985 31,2% 1935 46,7%

1937 -35,3% 1930 -25,1% 1941 -12,8% 1962 -8,8% 1994 1,3% 1968 10,8% 1999 20,9% 1950 30,8% 1928 43,8%

1931 -43,8% 2008 -36,6% 1974 -25,9% 1973 -14,3% 2000 -9,0% 1960 0,3% 2004 10,7% 1982 20,4% 1991 30,2% 1958 43,7% 1954 52,6%

Historiske afkast

Kilde: New York University Stern School of Business, S&P 500 totalafkast– Historiske afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidige afkast – Afkast kan blive negative.

Over

50%10-20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-50%0-10%-10-0%-20-10%-30-20%-40-30%

Større end

-40%

2020forventet

4

DANSKE BANK HOUSE VIEW

Risici – the usual suspects

Markedseffekt

San

dsyn

lig

hed

Kinesisk

vækstskuffelse

BrEXIT

Mellemøsten-

konflikt

Centralbanker

Nordkorea-krig

Regulering af

IT-sektor

Italien

Tyrkiet

Gæld

!

55

Energy

Health Care

Industry

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Stables

Materials

Telecom

IT

Utilities

Financials/Real Estate

Verden

Danmark

10% 20% 30% 40%0%

Undervægt Danmark

Kilde: MSCI

Trends 2020

77Kilde: visualcapitalist.com

En verden i forandring

88

1.180 mia. $

1.140 mia. $

920 mia. $

862 mia. $

556 mia. $

484 mia. $ 1.900 mia. $

En verden i forandring

99

Landbrug Digital

Den digitale tidsalder

1010Foto: www.uber.com www.alibabagroup.com www.facebookbrand.com www.airbnb.com www.apple.com www.google.com

Verdens største taxaselskab ejer ingen køretøjer

Verdens mest omtalte valuta findes ikke fysisk

Verdens mest værdifulde retailer har intet lager

Verdens mest populære medie fremstiller intet indhold

Verdens største udlejer ejer ingen ejendomme

Verdens to største IT-selskaber producerer selv meget få apps

En verden i forandring

1111

Foto: Scanpix | Colourbox | Colourbox | Google

1212

18%4%

4%

7%

15%

4%

8%

18%

BUTIK ONLINE

Et par jeans koster 1.000 kroner

Kilde: WSJ

Materialer

Marketing

Lønninger

Fragt

Husleje

Driftsomkostninger

Overskud

10% 10%

30% 30%

15%27%

1313

(Black Friday + Cyber Monday) X 3 = Singles Day

11/11 fejres singlerne. Oprindeligt en ‘anti-valentinsdag’

Hvem opfandt i 2009 Singles Day?

2019 i Kina: 9 ud af 10 onlinekøb på Singles Day skete via en mobil enhed!!!

1414

Forbrugeren anno 2020

1515

Bliver E- sport større end konventionel sport ?

1616

Asien

1717

AI-Big Data-IoT

1818

Den digitale schweizerkniv

1919Kilde: China Channel

…er kinesisk

2020

Der er

400% flere under 25 år

end i USA

Ca.

18% af klodens

befolkning er

kinesere

800 mio. er på

internettet

95% via mobile

løsninger

Millennials

udgør

40% af den kinesiske

internet-

population

Kina står for

50% af alle IT patenter

i verden

I Østen stiger solen op

2121

Råvarer

Energi

Industri

Telekom

IT

Sundhed

Underholdning

Forbrug

Ny økonomi har overhalet

2222

Kina: 6,8% er bedre end 10%

10% BNP-vækst tilføjede

275 mia. USD til økonomien i 2007

6,8% BNP-vækst tilføjede

800 mia. USD til økonomien 2018

2007

2018

23

Digitalisering – vi er først lige startet. KIG MOD ØST!

Kilde: Macrobond, McKinsey

Landbrug Industri Service Digital

2020

E-commerce

Internet handel er

stadigvæk i sin tidlige

fase. Det giver gode

muligheder for firmaer

indenfor e-commerce,

betalinger og

transport.

Streaming

Digital underholding.

Bedre mobiler, højere

hastighed og nye

behov. Vi bruger mere

tid på music, tv og

spil.

Cybercrime

Øget digitalisering

betyder desværre

også, at vi er blevet

mere sårbare over for

datakriminalitet. Derfor

er data security en del

af dette tema.

Kommunikation

Vi skal kommunikere

på nye måder.

Mobiler vil i stigende

grad blive brugt på

beskeder og social

media.

Big data / AI

Øget digitalisering

giver mere digitale

“fodspor” der kan

analyseres. Big data,

AI bliver et afgørende

tema indenfor

digitalisering.

Timeline

24

Bæredygtighed – En voksende trend blandt investorer

2525

- Charles Darwin, 1809

”Det er ikke den

stærkeste art

der overlever, ej

heller den

mest intelligente,

men den

som er mest

forandringsvillig.”

2626

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